It is important to preface this piece by noting that most players are never always “off the board.” There comes a time when a player’s average draft position (ADP) is so good, that you are not assuming the risk associated with a higher ADP.
With that being said, there are still players you should approach with caution. Here are 11 players you may regret drafting in 2022.
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Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB – KC)
It feels like a long time ago when the fantasy world was monstrously high on Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and it has not been a positive journey for the running back since 2020. He has yet to play a full season in the NFL due to injury, and his involvement in the offense was plagued by a committee backfield.
The Chiefs have the highest vacated targets in the NFL with the departure of Tyreek Hill, which means Edwards-Helaire may see an uptick in targets. However, the Chiefs seem set on loading their running back room with bodies. Even though they lost Darrel Williams, they added Ronald Jones and kept Jerick McKinnon.
This offense will continue to run through Patrick Mahomes and his arm as opposed to keeping the ball on the ground.
Antonio Gibson has been a roller coaster ride so far this summer and most of us were scratching our heads when he was practicing with special teams and punt returning. Let’s not forget that he is a wide receiver-turned-running back from college to the pros. The gut reaction is to stay away from Gibson despite his numbers from the last two seasons.
With J.D. McKissic resigned and rookie Brian Robinson Jr. emerging as a real threat to Gibson’s workload, this is looking like another committee backfield to avoid.
We do have clarity (finally) on the quarterback situation with Jacoby Brissett being named the starter for the first 11 weeks of the season. This isn’t bad news for Amari Cooper since he will likely benefit from deep-threat Donovan Peoples-Jones. However, while Brissett as the starter isn’t horrible for Cooper, it is excellent news for tight end David Njoku.
Brissett is a serviceable starter for the Browns, but this offense under Kevin Stefanski is run-first. Instead of taking Cooper at his ADP, look instead to Njoku much later in the draft and save that fifth-round pick for another player.
Christian Kirk’s contract is mind-boggling and may suggest that he will be the clear alpha wide receiver for the Jacksonville Jaguars. I find this very hard to believe. After Kirk was the star in the Jaguars’ second preseason game, his ADP is steadily climbing.
Remember, this is preseason, folks. While he may have splash plays and will have great value in best ball, Kirk is unrealistic at his ADP in redraft.
Not much analysis needs to go into avoiding Darnell Mooney. It seems juicy with a middle-round ADP in the seventh, especially since he’s about the only wide receiver for the Bears. But, that’s exactly the problem. The loss of Allen Robinson has a significant impact on Mooney’s opportunity since defenses will know exactly who they need to shut down.
Let me be perfectly clear. I do understand why he is a popular target in drafts. My point is that there are better options at his current ADP. Look instead to Gabe Davis or Damien Harris as better options over Mooney.
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While exciting news for real football, Marquise Brown to the Cardinals is not nearly as exciting for fantasy purposes. Don’t forget, DeAndre Hopkins will return after six weeks and Brown will be immediately replaced. With his built-in chemistry with Kyler Murray from their days in Oklahoma, Brown will likely see big numbers early. But, it’s unlikely he will sustain a massive target share once Hopkins returns.
Why anyone is high on a Giants’ wide receiver is beyond me. It’s not Kadarius Toney’s fault, though. Even with a new offense, Daniel Jones is still Daniel Jones. Plus, the buzz out of training camp and preseason has been the emergence of Wan’Dale Robinson, not Toney. This doesn’t bode well for his upside in fantasy football and he should be skipped in your fantasy drafts.
I know, I know… it’s a hot-button take. But, hear me out. Kelce is on this list only because of his astronomical ADP. I still think he will produce in fantasy at a position that has a huge tier gap.
The problem is that Kelce is being drafted anywhere from the first through the third round where the most expensive players are being taken off the board. There is a very real chance that both Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts finish ahead of Kelce this season. At that pricey of a draft pick, go with Mark Andrews if you’re set on drafting a tight end early or punt the position until the later rounds.
Defenses know exactly who they need to shut down now that Hill is out of the picture. That reduces Kelce’s target share and limits the production we have become used to seeing.
Make no mistake, this is a committee backfield between Devin Singletary, rookie James Cook, Josh Allen and even Zach Moss getting some action. He had a career season last year, but that is likely the ceiling we will see from him. Even then, he finished as the RB20, which is a low-end RB2.
If you’re looking for Singletary to take a massive step forward this season, you are likely to be sorely disappointed. If the Bills wanted to give Singletary a massive share of the RB touches, they wouldn’t have spent expensive second-round draft capital on James Cook.
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)
If we don’t believe in Tua Tagovailoa, then why are we believing in Tyreek Hill? Not only has Tagovoila not proven he has the arm talent to target Hill deep, but there are so many pass-catching options in this offense that it’s laughable. If Hill continues to fall in drafts, I understand the value of grabbing him if you already have a solid WR corps. Just remember to separate yourself from the name recognition and Hill’s days with Patrick Mahomes.
Lauren Carpenter is a fantasy football analyst and writer for various outlets in the industry. You can find her work @stepmomlauren on social media or on her website stepmomlauren.com
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