The 2022 fantasy football season is just around the corner. The FantasyPros mock draft simulator is the best preparation for your fantasy drafts. Each year you want to construct your team with a proper mix of good value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – that optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.
ADP Values
Cam Akers (RB – LAR): ADP 36 | RB20
Last season was a lost year for Akers. After suffering a torn Achilles in July, he returned to the field in early January. However, Akers was far from 100%. He averaged only 2.6 yards per rushing attempt and 7.2 fantasy points per game in the Rams’ four playoff games last season. While that is very disheartening, it wasn’t surprising, given how fast Akers returned from the injury. More importantly, Akers was very productive at the end of his rookie season.
Over the final five games of the 2020 season, Akers averaged 14 fantasy points per game. He scored 16 or more fantasy points twice despite playing under 70% of the snaps in all but one contest. Furthermore, Akers was one of the top running backs during the playoffs. He averaged 23 rushing attempts for 110.5 yards, one touchdown, and 22.1 fantasy points per game during the two playoff games. Akers also averaged 4.8 yards per rushing attempt during the playoffs. With Sony Michel now in Miami and Darrell Henderson‘s injury history, Akers has a pathway to a featured role and is a steal as the 18th running back off the board.
2020 playoffs – 2 games | 46 att | 4.8 YPC | 90+ yards in both games
2021 playoffs – 4 games | 67 att | 2.6 YPC | 48-55 yards in 3 games
A full year removed from the Achilles injury, I’m betting Akers is closer to his 2020 playoff form than his 2021 form. #FantasyFootball https://t.co/D2yRrEKv9P
— Mike Fanelli (@Mike_NFL2) August 17, 2022
Zach Ertz (TE – ARI): ADP 97 | TE9
After a disappointing 2020 season, many thought Ertz’s career was on the decline. He averaged only seven fantasy points per game that year, his lowest average since his rookie season. Furthermore, he had only one touchdown in 11 games. However, Ertz bounced back in 2021 after he got traded to the Cardinals. Once he joined the team, Ertz was the TE4 the rest of the year, averaging 12 fantasy points per game. His 81 targets in 11 games with the Cardinals finished third on the team behind Christian Kirk and A.J. Green.
Furthermore, Ertz averaged nine targets and 13.8 fantasy points per game in the seven games Hopkins missed last season. More importantly, the Cardinals made re-signing Ertz a priority this offseason, signing him to a three-year deal worth $31.7 million before the start of free agency. While they used a second-round pick on Trey McBride, tight ends typically don’t become fantasy relevant till their third year in the league. Until then, Ertz remains the No. 1 tight end in Arizona and a value at his current ADP.
Leonard Fournette (RB – TB): ADP 22 | RB12
Last year Fournette was one of three running backs to finish in the top 12 despite being listed as the No. 2 running back on their team’s preseason depth chart. More importantly, he was the RB6 last year, averaging 18.3 fantasy points per game despite missing three games because of injury. Furthermore, Fournette had 11 top-24 weekly finishes while finishing outside the top-36 running backs only once. After briefly flirting with the New England Patriots in free agency, Fournette re-signed with Tampa Bay this offseason.
The Buccaneers signed Fournette to a three-year deal worth $21 million. While they let Ronald Jones leave in free agency, the Buccaneers re-signed Giovanni Bernard and spent a third-round pick on Rachaad White. However, the Tampa Bay backfield belongs to Fournette. Last year he had a 67% backfield share rate and 14% target share. Furthermore, Fournette had 69 receptions, the second-most in his career, despite only a 52.9% route participation rate. Fournette has been a top-12 running back on a points-per-game basis in all but one year of his career. To get him as the 14th running back off the board is a steal.
DJ Moore (WR – CAR): ADP 37 | WR14
After a quiet rookie season, Moore has been one of the more consistent fantasy wide receivers despite inconsistent quarterback play. He has been a top-24 wide receiver the past three years despite scoring only four touchdowns per season. However, Moore is coming off arguably the best year of his career with 93 receptions on 163 targets and 1,157 yards, ending the year as the WR18. Hopefully, the addition of Baker Mayfield can take Moore’s fantasy production to the next level.
Last season, Moore had a 95.5% route participation rate and a 28.4% target share, both ranking among the league leaders. Furthermore, he had a 30.5% dominator rating, the 12th highest among wide receivers last season. Despite scoring only four touchdowns, Moore accounted for 12.9% of the team’s offensive scores. While Mayfield only has a 4.8% career touchdown rate, if Moore can score 7-8 touchdowns this season, he will be a top-12 wide receiver.
Dalvin Cook (RB – MIN): ADP 6 | RB4
While Cook had a disappointing 2021 season, finishing as the RB16, you should feel confident using a top-five pick on him this year. Despite unusual touchdown regression, Cook still had nine top-24 weekly finishes in 12 fantasy season games last season (75%). He was also the RB9 on a points-per-game basis among running backs with at least nine games played.
More importantly, his yards per rushing attempt from last year (4.7) matched his career average. After scoring 30 touchdowns the previous two years, Cook scored only six last season. With the switch at head coach from defensive-minded Mike Zimmer to offensive-minded Kevin O’Connell, the Minnesota offense should be more explosive and dangerous this year. Expect massive positive touchdown regression and another high-end RB1 season from Cook in 2022.
Darnell Mooney (WR – CHI): ADP 70.3 | WR24
After the Bears let Allen Robinson leave in free agency, Mooney is the unquestioned No. 1 wide receiver in Chicago. Last year he had 140 targets, the 11th most in the NFL. More importantly, his 8.2 targets per game were a 25.6% increase from his rookie season average. Mooney remained productive with his targets despite a merry-go-round at quarterback. After averaging 1.55 fantasy points per target as a rookie, Mooney averaged 1.57 fantasy points per target last season. Furthermore, his production jumped in the games without Robinson.
While he scored only one touchdown in the five games without Robinson last season, Mooney still averaged 14.2 fantasy points per game. On a 17-game pace, he would have been the WR17 last season with that average. Furthermore, he had at least seven targets in every game without Robinson, including nine or more targets twice. More importantly, Justin Fields reportedly has made massive strides this offseason throwing the ball. Mooney could lead the league in targets this season, thanks to limited competition at wide receiver. As the 29th wide receiver off the board, Mooney is criminally underrated at his current ADP.
Saquon Barkley (RB – NYG): ADP 19 | RB10
The former No. 2 overall pick had a historic rookie season, averaging 22 touches and 24.1 fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, Barkley has struggled to stay healthy since his rookie season, missing 42.9 percent of the games the past three years. Furthermore, his yards per rushing attempt dropped to a career-low 3.7 last season. However, the Giants have done everything possible to help Barkley out this offseason.
They added several new offensive linemen, including top-10 pick Evan Neal. The Giants also brought in no competition for touches, giving Barkley an easy path to a featured workload. More importantly, the Giants’ receiving core has been disappointing during training camp so far. If they continue to struggle to start the year, Barkley could see a massive uptick in targets. Health is the key for Barkley. Before suffering a torn ACL in 2020, he scored 14 or more fantasy points in 24 of 30 games. If he stays healthy, Barkley could end the year as the overall RB1.
Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI): ADP 55 | QB6
Despite being one of the most talked about quarterbacks this offseason, Hurts remains a steal as the seventh quarterback off the board and a sixth-round pick. In his first year as the full-time starter, Hurts was the QB9 and averaged 20.8 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he tied for the QB6 finish on a points per game basis with Aaron Rodgers. More importantly, many expect Hurts to make a Josh Allen-like third-year leap.
The reason why Hurts will make a big leap in 2022 is the addition of A.J. Brown. Philadelphia traded a first and third-round pick in the NFL Draft for the former Ole Miss star. Similarly, the Buffalo Bills traded multiple draft picks for Stefon Diggs during the 2020 offseason. Allen went on to have a career year that season. Furthermore, Hurts has plenty of upside even if his passing numbers don’t improve. Last year, Hurts and Allen were the only two quarterbacks to throw for over 3,000 yards and rush for over 750 yards. If he takes that leap forward, Hurts becomes a league winner at his current ADP.
Mike Williams (WR – LAC): ADP 41 | WR15
Williams broke out last season with a career year in most statistical categories. He ended the year as the WR12 and had the second 1,000-yard season of his career. More importantly, Williams had four top-12 weekly finishes last year, matching teammate Keenan Allen. Furthermore, he accomplished that feat despite playing 7% fewer snaps and seeing a 4.3% smaller target share.
The former first-round draft pick averaged less than one fewer fantasy point per game than Allen. However, Williams was more effective than the veteran. Williams averaged more fantasy points per route run (0.46 vs. 0.44) and more fantasy points per target (1.91 vs. 1.64) than Allen. He also had only two fewer red zone targets and 10 more deep targets than the veteran receiver. Even if he doesn’t replace Allen as the Chargers’ No. 1 wide receiver this year, Williams has too much upside to be a fifth-round pick.
Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – that optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.
Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN): ADP 45 | WR16
Unfortunately, injuries and quarterback play have held Sutton back in his career. He missed all but one game in 2020 with a torn ACL. Last year, Sutton was the WR44, averaging 8.8 fantasy points per game. However, Denver had one of the worst quarterback situations last year with Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock. Thankfully, the Broncos traded for Russell Wilson in the offseason, giving Sutton a chance to finally breakout.
While he hasn’t turned into a fantasy star yet, Sutton has a top-20 finish under his belt. In 2019, he was the WR19, averaging 13.9 fantasy points per game and 1.8 fantasy points per target. Furthermore, Sutton had an 8.3% touchdown rate that year. By comparison, he has a 5.8% touchdown rate for the rest of his career. With Tim Patrick out for the year with a torn ACL, Sutton will see an uptick in targets. More importantly, Sutton is the most similar to DK Metcalf. If he and Wilson can build a connection early in the year, Sutton has top-12 upside.
Michael Pittman (WR – IND): ADP 31 | WR11
Pittman is a popular breakout candidate. Last year he was the WR17, averaging 14 fantasy points per game. Pittman had seven top-24 weekly finishes and a 25% red zone target share in 2021. Furthermore, he had a route participation rate of 98.1%, one of the highest in the NFL. More importantly, Pittman was the focal point of the Indianapolis passing attack last season, seeing 17 red zone targets, 42 third down targets, and 16 deep targets.
During the offseason, the Colts traded for Matt Ryan, giving Pittman arguably the best quarterback of his career. Furthermore, they did very little to threaten his 25.7% target share from last season. Meanwhile, all the reports out of training camp further suggest Pittman is in-line for a breakout season. While the ADP has Pittman as the WR13, the FantasyPros experts have Pittman as their combined WR7. I believe Pittman is bound for a top-10 finish this year and have him as the WR7 in my rankings too. Be sure to draft him way ahead of his ADP, as he will be this year’s version of 2021 Diontae Johnson.
2021 Diontae Johnson = 2022 Michael Pittman
Both had quiet rookie years but mid-WR2 finishes in PPR as sophomores.
DJ in Y2 (2020) – 88/144/923/7 (WR21)
MP in Y2 (2021) – 88/129/1062/6 (WR17)DJ in Y3 (2021) – 107/169/1161/8 (WR8)
MP in Y3 (2022) – ???#FantasyFootball1/3 pic.twitter.com/nIkcHmUtsE
— Mike Fanelli (@Mike_NFL2) August 9, 2022
Christian Kirk (WR – JAC): ADP 107 | WR40
Despite all of the blockbuster trades this offseason, the most surprising headline was the contract the Jaguars gave Kirk. However, he is in a great position for fantasy players. Last year, Kirk had the best year of his career, finishing as the WR26, averaging 12.2 fantasy points per game. However, he averaged 12.9 fantasy points per game in the seven contests without DeAndre Hopkins, scoring over 16.4 fantasy points in two of those games.
More importantly, no one on the Jacksonville roster can challenge Kirk for the No. 1 role. While the Jaguars added a few other pass catchers in the offseason, they will have a limited impact on Kirk’s target share. Furthermore, the Jaguars will be in negative game script a big chunk of the year, giving Kirk plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points. While he is currently getting drafted as a WR4, a top-20 finish isn’t out of the question for Kirk. Take advantage of the potential upside and safe floor ability combination.
Tee Higgins (WR – CIN): ADP 33 | WR12
The Bengals have an elite pair of young wide receivers. While Ja’Marr Chase deserves every ounce of credit he gets, Higgins is currently underrated. The former Clemson star was a top-13 wide receiver on a fantasy points per game basis last season, averaging 15.6 fantasy points per contest. Furthermore, Higgins had a team-high 7.9 targets per game last season, while Chase averaged 7.5 targets per game.
While Chase is the more popular name, Higgins had a slightly higher target share (23.9% to 23.7%) despite playing 7.1% fewer snaps last year. More importantly, Joe Burrow looked Higgins’ way in the red zone. Higgins had a 26% red zone target share and 13 red zone targets in 14 games, while Chase had a 20.7% red zone targets share and 12 red zone targets in 17 games. Chase is a superstar, but Higgins is the much better value at his ADP.
Rashod Bateman (WR – BAL): ADP 78 | WR28
Bateman is a popular breakout candidate after the Ravens traded Marquise Brown to the Arizona Cardinals during the NFL Draft. Brown had a career-high 145 targets last season. With no competition for the No. 1 wide receiver role, Bateman is in line for a massive increase in targets this year. While he averaged only 8.6 fantasy points per game last season, the former Minnesota star receiver showed potential last year when given enough targets.
He started the year strong, seeing six or more targets in his first five career games. Despite not finding the end zone, he averaged 1.41 fantasy points per target in those contests. Furthermore, Bateman averaged 11.3 fantasy points per game and 1.59 fantasy points per target in the eight games with more than four targets as a rookie. As Lamar Jackson‘s new and unchallenged No. 1 wide receiver, Bateman should take a massive step forward this season.
Gabriel Davis (WR – BUF): ADP 67 | WR25
Gabriel Davis was a popular breakout candidate last year. However, he was the WR58 and averaged only 7.9 fantasy points per game. While his 2021 season was disappointing, you should feel confident Davis will break out this year. First and foremost, Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders are no longer with the team, opening 184 targets from last year’s roster. Their replacements are the veteran Jamison Crowder and fifth-round rookie Khalil Shakir.
More importantly, Davis was very productive despite limited work last season. Despite playing only 49.3% of the snaps and a 46.8% route participation rate, Davis had a 10.9% target share and averaged two fantasy points per target. Furthermore, he had the third most red zone targets on the Bills with 17. Davis also had a 17.1% touchdown rate and accounted for 10.7% of the team’s total touchdowns. While he hasn’t been a consistent fantasy player in the past, Davis is a prime post-hype sleeper candidate.
Elijah Moore (WR – NYJ): ADP 94 | WR33
While injuries ended his rookie season, Elijah Moore showed plenty of promise in his final few games. Over the last five games of the year, Moore averaged 20.1 fantasy points per game. He scored at least 13 fantasy points in all but one of those contests. Furthermore, he scored 20.5 or more three times.
More importantly, Moore was very productive with his touches, averaging 3.32 fantasy points per touch in those five games. He was producing for fantasy teams even before his strong finish to end the year. Moore had an 18.6% target share and a 20% target share in the red zone. Furthermore, he had three top-12 weekly finishes. Moore will easily outperform his current ADP after having his first complete offseason to prepare for the year.
If you want to dive deeper into fantasy football, check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you navigate your season. From our Start/Sit Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant, which allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team and how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football season.
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
