Fantasy Football Air Yards Analysis: Week 15 (2022)

The game of fantasy football has become more complex over the past several years. While the game itself hasn’t changed much, the way to analyze stats and draw conclusions has become much more in-depth with the development of advanced stats.

One of those advanced stats is air yards. Why are air yards important? Because it helps differentiate the value of targets. Quick passes like screens and slants have a different value than downfield routes. Depending on what your league’s scoring is, it will make a difference in what you want from a fantasy player.

Receiving yards is a basic yet important stat for fantasy football players. Having receivers who catch plenty of short targets is valuable in PPR scoring. However, a receiver with consistent big play ability downfield is equally valuable.

Air yards are not the golden ticket to winning your fantasy league. However, they are a useful tool to help you analyze the game. Let’s look at the top 10 performers at each position and the five top underperformers.

Stats via FantasyPros

The Top 10 Quarterbacks

While Week 14 had several intriguing matchups, fantasy players were looking forward to the NFC North showdown between the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions. While Detroit got the surprising win (at least to some), both quarterbacks played well. Cousins and Goff not only had the two highest air yard totals in Week 14, but they also both ended the week as top-five quarterbacks. Furthermore, they have made fantasy players happy as they combined to produce six top-36 wide receivers last week. However, both quarterbacks face difficult matchups in Week 15.

Unfortunately, Week 14 saw several starting quarterbacks leave their game with an injury. Kyler Murray suffered a torn ACL Monday night, while Mike White left his game twice but returned both times. Meanwhile, Tyler Huntley and Kenny Pickett suffered concussions, leaving their status for Week 15 in doubt. With Pickett playing only eight snaps before leaving the game, Mitch Trubisky finished the contest for the Steelers. The veteran played well, completing 73% of his pass attempts for 276 yards. More importantly, Trubisky had the fourth-most air yards despite having the 18th-most pass attempts last week. Yet, Mike Tomlin won’t commit to Trubisky as the starter next week if Pickett can’t play.

The Top 10 Wide Receivers

Welcome back to the field Big Mike! The veteran receiver has missed four of the past five games because of a high-ankle sprain. While he played in Week 11 against the Kansas City Chiefs, Williams left the game after only six snaps. In his first game back, the former Clemson star led the team in receiving yards (116) and air yards (83) despite seeing eight fewer targets than Keenan Allen and the same number as Joshua Palmer. More importantly, Herbert’s air yards per game average is 4.3% higher when Williams is healthy than when he’s not playing.

The Houston Texans almost pulled off the upset win over the Dallas Cowboys despite not having Brandin Cooks or Nico Collins. With both starting receivers out this week, Moore stepped up massively. His 11 targets were the most on the team, as he had a 45.8% target share in the game. Furthermore, the rest of the team had 10 receptions, while he had 10. More importantly, in the four games with five or more targets this season, Moore has averaged 10.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Dynasty players should add him off the waiver wire. The veteran is a free agent after this season, and he could have a Zay Jones-like year in 2023 with a new team.

The Top 10 Tight Ends

Congratulations on winning your matchup this week if you started Engram. Not only did he have the most targets and air yards among tight ends last week, but his 15 targets tied for the most in the NFL in Week 14. Meanwhile, his 65 air yards would have tied D.J. Chark for the 14th-most among wide receivers. However, fantasy players shouldn’t get too excited about the tight end’s play last week. The Tennessee Titans are one of the worst teams in the NFL at defending tight ends. More importantly, Engram averaged only 4.9 targets and 16.3 air yards per game before last week’s matchup. He is a fade this week against the Dallas Cowboys, who have surrendered the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this year.

The more significant tight end performance from that AFC South matchup was Okonkwo’s. Over the past six weeks, the rookie has 268 receiving yards, totaling at least 31 yards in every contest. However, he did that despite having one reception in half of those games. More importantly, Okonkwo averaged 13.3 air yards per game over the first four contests. Yet, he has averaged 28 air yards per game over the past two weeks. During the past two weeks, the rookie has been the TE2, averaging 12.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Next year, Okonkwo is going to be a popular sleeper candidate after the Titans move on from Hooper in the offseason. Now is the time to buy in dynasty leagues.

The Top Five Underperformers

Fantasy players were without Jakobi Meyers and Treylon Burks last week because of injuries. Thanks to appealing matchups against the Arizona Cardinals and Jacksonville Jaguars, Agholor and Westbrook-Ikhine were considered solid waiver wire replacement options. Instead, both had awful performances last week. The two veteran receivers combined to score 15.5 half-point PPR fantasy points. More importantly, they combined for 18 targets but only 36 air yards. Hopefully, Meyers and Burks return for the fantasy playoffs, as their replacements have let fantasy players down.

Week 14 will go down as one of the wildest weeks in NFL history. Tua Tagovailoa completed only 10 of 28 pass attempts on Sunday night. His struggles impacted Hill, who caught only four of 10 targets in the game. Furthermore, aside from the one play where the defensive back tripped and fell, leading to an easy touchdown for Hill, the superstar receiver had a quiet performance. Well, except for the wild fumble recovery for a touchdown. Hill ended the week with the 35th in receptions and 39th in air yards among wide receivers. Yet, he was the WR4 last week with 22.1 half-point PPR fantasy points. Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good.

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.