The NFL has bumped up the bulk of this week’s games to Saturday, with Christmas falling on Sunday. As a result, it’s a 10-game Saturday afternoon main slate. There’s a decided lack of high totals on Saturday’s main DFS slate. Part of the reason for the low totals is the weekend weather forecast for many of the games. Mother Nature will have a hand in this week’s DFS slate. So, gamers are encouraged to keep up to date on forecast changes that could impact the utility of the players touted in this piece.
Week 16 Matchups
Game: Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: BAL -6.5 Points
Over/Under: 35.5 Points
Falcons Analysis: The Falcons had 18 points and 320 total yards in Desmond Ridder‘s first NFL start last week. Ridder was dreadful, and the running backs need a better game script than they’ll likely receive as 6.5-point underdogs to be DFS relevant. Gamers can comfortably fade the Falcons.
Ravens Analysis: The Ravens have scored more than 16 points once in five games since their bye in Week 10. That’s not going to cut it. Fade the Ravens.
Game: Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
Spread: DET -2.5 Points
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Lions Analysis: Jared Goff's lousy numbers on the road are alarming for Amon-Ra St. Brown's outlook. Nevertheless, ARSB's volume and production in 11 healthy games keep him on the radar this week, albeit not as a must-use option.
According to numberFire, he had a 29.3% Target Share, 84 receptions, 952 receiving yards, 699 Air Yards, six receiving touchdowns, eight rushes and 95 rushing yards in 11 healthy games. Further, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Sun God had 2.62 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR). The second-year wideout is also a standout on their Week 16 wide receivers versus cornerbacks matchup chart, sporting the most significant matchup advantage among wideouts on Saturday's main DFS slate. So, ARSB is projected as the WR4 in DFS this week, with the WR11 value score (WR11V) at DraftKings and the WR2V at FanDuel.
Panthers Analysis: Sam Darnold has done enough to keep Carolina's offense moderately useful in DFS. Sadly, it's a run-first offense, creating a risk for Carolina's pass-catching option. Still, DJ Moore and Terrace Marshall are intriguing choices this week.
According to Football Outsiders, No. 1 wideouts have averaged the most receiving yards per game (95.7) and No. 2 wide receivers are tied for the 13th-most receiving yards per game (51.4) against the Lions. They've also been thrashed by perimeter and slot wideouts. According to The 33rd Team and data from Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Detroit has allowed the ninth-most DK and 10th-most FD points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 9. Meanwhile, slots have barbecued them for the second-most DK and FD points.
As a result, Moore has a dreamy matchup, playing a ton of snaps in the slot. Moore's slot rate differs between PFF and SIS. Josh Larky from The 33rd Team was kind enough to explain the difference between the two stats providers.
By SIS's charting, Moore is in a smash spot against the Lions.
Moore has also had stellar stats in Darnold's three starts. He's led the team in Target Share (22.7%), receptions (nine), receiving yards (176), Air Yards (282) and touchdown receptions (two) in those contests. Moore's usage and matchup provide the optimizer optimism, and it projects him as the WR12 in DFS, with Moore tying for the WR6V at DK.
Marshall is a big-play-chasing punt in a plus matchup. Per PFF, the second-year wideout ran the second-most routes (68) and had a 14.4-yard Average Depth of Target (aDOT) in Darnold's three starts. Conversely, the Lions have allowed 18 completions on 43 passes that traveled at least 20 Air Yards for 587 yards and two touchdowns since Week 9. Marshall's floor is low, but he's a viable punt and has the WR4V at DK on Saturday's slate.
Game: Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears
Spread: BUF -8.0 Points
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
Bills Analysis: The Bears aren't a threat to slow Buffalo's offense, but Mother Nature might be a problem. According to meteorologist Kevin Roth, the forecast has sustained 20 mph wind and gusts up to 35 mph. The windy conditions might derail the vertical passing attack. Still, Josh Allen has the caliber arm to cut through the windy conditions. And if the forecast softens, Buffalo's offense is even more enticing.
Still, the matchup is tantalizing. According to Football Outsiders, the Bears are 24th in rush defense DVOA and 32nd in pass defense DVOA since Week 9. They've also struggled to generate a pass rush. Per Pro-Football-Reference, they have the second-lowest pressure rate (16.3%) this season.
If the Bills think they can pass in Saturday's weather, they will. Since Week 9, they've attempted 200 passes and 101 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts. Allen hasn't been perfect this year, but he's produced excellent results. He's averaged the fifth-most passing yards per game (275.5) and tossed the third-most touchdowns (30).
Allen's also a weapon on the ground, averaging 50.4 rushing yards per game and splashing paydirt six times. Fortunately, Allen can have a nifty stat line against the Bears, even if the weather isn't ideal. Chicago has struggled mightily to defend quarterbacks as rushers. Per Pro-Football-Reference, they've allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game (23.6) and the most rushing touchdowns (eight) to signal-callers this year. Allen's dual-threat ability gives him a high ceiling, and he's projected as the QB2 in DFS this week, with the QB2V at FD.
Gabe Davis is another intriguing option from the Bills. The windy conditions decrease Davis's odds of catching a deep pass. Nonetheless, he's not just a lid-lifter, even if that's a significant portion of his value to Buffalo's passing attack. Since Week 9, Davis had 11 receptions on 15 targets for 70 yards and a touchdown on targets that traveled 10 Air Yards or fewer. So, he has competence in the intermediate area.
And, of course, Davis can take the top off the defense. The Bears are also lousy when defending deep passes. Quarterbacks have completed 12 passes on 26 attempts (46.2%) that traveled at least 20 Air Yards since Week 9 for 343 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Moreover, perimeter wide receivers had the seventh-most DK and FD points per game against the Bears since Week 9.
Dawson Knox and James Cook are candidates for an uptick in looks if the wind forces Allen to throw shorter passes. Knox has come on strong lately. The fourth-year tight end had a touchdown in back-to-back games, had at least four receptions in four of his last six games and cleared 40 yards four times in his previous six contests.
Cook had snap shares of 43%, 41% and 36% in Buffalo's last three games. So, the playing time was underwhelming. The rookie running back has flashed some potential, though. Cook ran for a season-high 86 yards in a plus matchup in Week 11, had 105 scrimmage yards and six receptions against the Patriots in Week 13 and had 39 scrimmage yards, two receptions and a touchdown reception last week against the Dolphins. Cook was also targeted on a rock-solid 23.3% of his 43 routes in Buffalo's last three games. Gamers who need salary relief at running back can consider Cook as a bargain option, albeit a low-floor choice.
Bears Analysis: Justin Fields has elite wheels. Sadly, he has a lack of weaponry in the passing game. The second-year quarterback can overcome a challenging matchup on the ground, but it's suboptimal to use him in DFS. And the Bills fit the bill as a less-than-ideal matchup. They've allowed the 10th-fewest rushing yards (214), only 4.65 yards per carry and zero rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this year. Therefore, the Bears aren't an interesting club for DFS.
Game: New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns
Spread: CLE -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 32.5 Points
Saints Analysis: The weather forecast is miserable, and Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry are out. Could the Saints use a Taysom Hill-heavy game plan against Cleveland's pathetic run defense? The Browns are 29th in rush defense DVOA since Week 9. In addition, they've allowed the eighth-most rushing yards per game (133.1) and the fourth-most rushing yards per carry (5.0) this season.
Hill has toted the rock at least six times in three of his last four games, but double-digit carries could be in the cards this week. And, of course, Hill has caught passes and tossed them, giving him multiple avenues to score DFS points. Hill isn't an option on DK as a quarterback, but he's a fun option as a tight end on FD.
The Saints' defense can benefit from the weather, saying nothing of their plus matchup. The Browns have turned the ball over three times and allowed six sacks in their last three games. The offense has also generated a pitiful 29 points since Week 13. Finally, stacking Hill and the Saints is an interesting move on FD since a positive game script would be ideal for both.
Browns Analysis: Deshaun Watson has been a roaring tire fire, and Cleveland's offense has taken a nosedive. There's no reason to invest in them in pristine conditions, and the weather will be on the polar opposite of the spectrum.
Game: Seattle Seahawks at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: KC -10.0 Points
Over/Under: 49.5 Points
Seahawks Analysis: First, the pace might be fantasy friendly for this game. According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs are third in situation-neutral pace, and the Seahawks are 11th. The matchup is also good for the Seahawks.
The Chiefs have allowed the 11th-most passing yards per game (227.6) and the most touchdown passes (30) this year. Geno Smith can shred them while orchestrating a pass-first offense. The Seahawks have attempted 143 passes and 80 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts since Week 9. The late-blooming Smith is eighth in passing yards per game (262.2) and fourth in passing touchdowns (26) this year, and the optimizer digs him this week, projecting him as the QB5 in DFS, with the QB3V at DK and the QB5V at FD.
Sadly, Tyler Lockett is out. His absence will pave the way to an ungodly number of looks for D.K. Metcalf. According to SIS, the wideout built like an adonis is 11th in Target Share (26.0%) and 12th in Intended Air Yards (1,314) and might be more heavily involved as Seattle's unquestioned best passing-game option. The matchup is sweet, too. No. 1 wideouts have torched the Chiefs for the third-most receiving yards per game (84.2) this year. Thus, Metcalf is projected as the WR5 in DFS on Saturday's main slate, is tied for the WR6V at DK and is tied for the WR3V at FD.
Chiefs Analysis: The Chiefs are the A-side of a probable shootout and the most well-represented team in this week's piece. Patrick Mahomes is having an MVP-caliber season, spearheading an efficient pass-happy offense. The Chiefs have attempted 211 passes and 106 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts since Week 9 and kept their foot on the gas when leading by at least eight points, attempting 48 passes and 38 rushes by non-quarterbacks.
Mahomes is making the most of Andy Reid putting the weight of the offense on his shoulders, leading the NFL in passing yards per game (321.1) and touchdown passes (35). The stud quarterback has also scampered for 22.4 yards per game and three touchdowns. Mahomes is projected as the QB1 in DFS, with the QB2V at DK and the QB1V at FD in an eruption spot. The Seahawks are tied for the ninth-lowest pressure rate (19.5%) and tied for the 10th-most passing touchdowns allowed (21) this season. They're also wilting lately. The Seahawks are 26th in pass defense DVOA since Week 9. Mahomes is going to feast.
Travis Kelce is the most likely pass-catcher to eviscerate the Seahawks. Seattle has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game (62.3) to tight ends this season. They've also allowed the fifth-most receiving touchdowns (eight) to them. Meanwhile, Kelce is 11th in receptions per game (6.5), ninth in receiving yards per game (81.7) and tied for first in receiving touchdowns (12) this season. Thus, he's the TE1 in DFS and has the TE1V at FD.
JuJu Smith-Schuster is also an inviting passing-game option. In his last six games that weren't impacted by an injury, Smith-Schuster had a 19.7% Target Share, 44 receptions, 522 receiving yards, 277 Air Yards, 2.17 Y/RR and three touchdowns. The veteran slot has a good matchup this week. Slot receivers have the eighth-most DK and FD points per game against the Seahawks in Week 9. So, Smith-Schuster is projected as the WR10 and has the WR8V at DK, and he's the WR10 and tied for the WR14V at FD.
Jerick McKinnon is white-hot and provides DFS gamers access to Kansas City's passing and rushing attack. Fortunately, McKinnon had thrived even when Smith-Schuster was healthy. In the six-game sample cited for Smith-Schuster, McKinnon had a 13.0% Target Share, 28 receptions, 296 receiving yards, 1.93 Y/RR and four touchdowns. And McKinnon has been a monster in the last two weeks, catching 15 of 17 targets for 182 yards and three touchdowns. Running backs have also averaged the fourth-most receiving yards per game (47.1) against Seattle, adding to the appeal of using Kansas City's versatile running back.
But, of course, McKinnon is a running back and totes the rock as well. He's had more than 50 rushing yards in two of his last three games and averaged eight carries per game since Week 13. Kansas City's offensive line and the matchup are also pluses for McKinnon's rushing outlook as a change-of-pace ball carrier. According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs are third in Adjusted Line Yards (4.82). Further, the Seahawks are 30th in rush defense DVOA since Week 9. Per The 33rd Team, running backs have smashed the Seahawks for the most rushing yards per game (152.8) and have scored eight rushing touchdowns (tied for the third most) against them since Week 9. As a result, McKinnon is projected as the RB8 and has the RB3V at DK and projects as the RB11 at FD.
Teams have understandably run the ball down Seattle's throat. They've attempted 136 passes and 131 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts since Week 9. It's not in Kansas City's DNA to run a balanced offense. Yet, maybe, they'll lean on the running game a smidge more against Seattle's pathetic run defense. Even in Kansas City's pass-happy offense, Isiah Pacheco has made waves lately. Pacheco has averaged the fourth-most rushing yards per game (80) since Week 10 and averaged 5.1 yards per carry. The advanced metrics were also rock-solid. According to PFF, among 38 running backs who've attempted at least 40 rushes since Week 10, Pacheco was 13th in Yards After Contact per Attempt (3.04 YCO/A), tied for 13th in missed tackles forced (16) and tied for seventh in 10-plus-yard rushes (10).
Pacheco can see an uptick in usage if the Seahawks can't keep up with Kansas City's potent offense. When leading by at least eight points since Week 9, the Chiefs have attempted 48 passes and 38 rushes by non-quarterbacks. And most importantly, Pacheco handled 32 of the 38 rushes. The hard-charging rookie is projected as the RB14 and has the RB8V at DK, and he's the RB16 and tied for the RB12V at FD.
Game: New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: MIN -4.0 Points
Over/Under: 48.0 Points
Giants Analysis: Saquon Barkley has bounced back from a few injury-marred seasons. He's fourth in scrimmage yards (1,464) among running backs this year. New York's feature weapon has also averaged 3.4 receptions per game and splashed paydirt nine times.
The matchup is stellar for Barkley this week. The Vikings are 18th in rush defense DVOA and have allowed the fourth-most receptions per game (5.9), the most receiving yards per game (48.0) and tied for the second-most touchdown receptions allowed (three) to running backs since Week 9. So, Barkley is game-script proof and projects as the RB3 at DK and the RB4 at FD, with the RB7V at the former and tying for the RB7V at the latter.
Richie James also has a tasty matchup. The Vikings have permitted the third-most DK and the fourth-most FD points per game to slot wideouts since Week 9. Big Blue's slot wide receiver has averaged 4.4 receptions per game, 42.4 receiving yards per game and scored three receiving touchdowns in his previous five games. James isn't an exceptional talent, but he's an appealing value option, owning the WR13V at DK and tying for the WR17V at FD on the Saturday main slate.
Vikings Analysis: Kirk Cousins has passed for 425 and 460 yards and tossed six touchdowns in his last two games. The veteran signal-caller has also had sizable indoor and outdoor splits in recent years. Cousins has cruised in games played indoors. Since 2020, he's completed 67.3% of his passes and averaged 276.6 passing yards and 2.1 touchdowns per game in indoor games. Cousins is also unlikely to meet much resistance from the G-Men. They're 25th in pass defense DVOA since Week 9.
While Cousins is a stellar pick, Justin Jefferson is the most exciting pick on the Vikings. Jefferson is second in receptions per game (7.9), first in receiving yards per game (115.9) and tied for seventh in receiving touchdowns (seven) this season. Predictably, his underlying metrics are absurd. Jefferson is third in Target Share (29.6%) and Intended Air Yards (1,648). The third-year wideout has also been firing on all cylinders down the stretch. Per PFF, he was third in Yards per Route Run (2.87) among 62 wide receivers targeted at least 25 times since Week 9.
The matchup is also tasty. The Giants have allowed the seventh-most DK points per game and the eighth-most FD points per game to wide receivers since Week 9. Of course, Jefferson's a matchup-proof monster, but the matchup certainly helps him secure the WR1 projection in DFS and the WR1V at FD.
Dalvin Cook is an outstanding leverage selection off Cousins and Jefferson. The Giants are dead last in rush defense DVOA since Week 9. Running backs have creamed Big Blue for the third-most rushing per game (136.8) and tied for the most rushing touchdowns (eight) against them since Week 9.
Cook isn't merely a matchup-drive suggestion. He's also played well. Cook is seventh in scrimmage yards (1,310) among running backs and has scored 10 touchdowns this season. Additionally, out of 43 running backs who've attempted at least 40 rushes since Week 9, Cook was seventh in yards after contact per attempt (3.28 YCO/A) and tied for eighth in missed tackles forced (20). Minnesota is the RB4 and has the RB4V at DK and is the RB3 and has the RB3V at FD.
Game: Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots
Spread: CIN -3.0 Points
Over/Under: 41.5 Points
Bengals Analysis: Hayden Hurst is preparing to return from a two-game absence. Obviously, gamers need to confirm he's active. Hurst is a touchdown-chasing punt if he suits up, though. The Patriots are tied for the third-most receiving touchdowns allowed (nine) to tight ends this year. Hurst was targeted eight times and had two touchdowns in the red zone this season.
Patriots Analysis: It's been shocking, but long-time defensive-minded coach Matt Patricia hasn't excelled as an offensive coordinator and play-caller this season. No one could have seen his struggles coming. Snark aside, New England is only 17th in scoring offense (21.4 points per game), and the Bengals have held their opponents to 24 points or fewer in their last four games. The Patriots were underwhelming in a mouthwatering matchup against the Raiders last week and will have a more challenging matchup this week. So, there's nothing to get excited about here.
Game: Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Spread: TEN -3.5 Points
Over/Under: 35.5 Points
Texans Analysis: The Texans pushed the Cowboys to the limit in Week 14 and did the same to the Chiefs in Week 15. They're not mailing in the rest of the year. Now, they face a pass-funnel and lousy defense. Teams have attempted 227 passes and 96 rushes by non-quarterbacks against the Titans in neutral game scripts since Week 9. The Titans were 28th in pass defense DVOA during that stretch.
Davis Mills might not be the quarterback to exploit Tennessee's weaknesses. However, a pair of his pass-catchers are enticing options. Brandin Cooks is ready to roll this week in a tantalizing matchup.
The Titans have allowed the 10th-most receiving yards per game (74.4) to No. 1 wideouts this year and permitted the second-most DK and FD points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 9. Unfortunately, it hasn't been a banner year for Cooks. Nevertheless, he had team highs for Target Share (21.5%), receptions (39), receiving yards (461) and Air Yards (619) in nine contests he played and Mills started. So, Cooks has enough in the tank to get the better of the Titans, even in a down year by his standards.
Jordan Akins is only moderately interesting on DK, where his sub-$3,000 salary sets a low bar for him to provide DFS squads with value. Since Week 14, he's had a 15.6% Target Share on Mills' passes and tied for the second-most receptions (four) on the Texans. Akins had only 27 receiving yards in those two games but scored a touchdown and had a team-high two targets on Mills' four pass attempts inside the 10-yard line.
The matchup is also inviting. The Titans have allowed the third-most receptions (79) and the second-most receiving yards per game (67.2) to tight ends this year. Thus, Akins has the TE5V at DK and is a worthy punt.
Titans Analysis: It will be the Derrick Henry show for the Titans. Rookie Malik Willis is starting for the Titans, and he's raw and untrusted as a passer. Coincidentally, Willis made his first career start against the Texans in Week 8. The Titans allowed him to throw only 10 passes and fed King Henry 32 attempts for 219 yards and two touchdowns. Henry even had a nine-yard reception as a cherry on top.
Henry is second in rushing yards per game (93.1) and tied for third in rushing touchdowns (12) this season. Since Week 9, he was fifth in Yards After Contact per Attempt (3.38 YCO/A) and tied for sixth in missed tackles forced (21). Henry has also averaged 2.1 receptions and 27.1 receiving yards per game. Further, King Henry has had multiple receptions in his previous six games and had more than 30 receiving yards in four of his last five.
In addition, the matchup is dreamy. Houston has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards per game (123.4) and tied for the fifth-most rushing touchdowns allowed (seven) to running backs since Week 9. As a result, Henry is the RB1 in DFS, has the RB2V at DK and has the RB1V at FD.
Chigoziem Okonkwo is a risky punt, albeit one with the athletic traits and run-after-the-catch skills to help an erratic passer such as Willis. According to PFF, Okonkwo is first in Yards per Route Run (2.63 Y/RR) and fourth in Yards After the Catch per Reception (7.8 YAC/REC) out of 37 tight ends targeted at least 30 times this season. The rookie tight end had at least three receptions and 35 yards in his last four games and hauled in 14 receptions for 167 yards and one touchdown since Week 13. Okonkwo has the TE4V at DK.
Game: Washington Commanders at San Fransisco 49ers
Spread: SF -6.5 Points
Over/Under: 37.5 Points
Commanders Analysis: Jahan Dotson has put together back-to-back fantasy-friendly games. In Washington's last two games, Dotson had a 21.4% Target Share, nine receptions, 159 receiving yards, 185 Air Yards, 2.21 Y/RR and two touchdown receptions.
The rookie wideout also had a sneaky usage change. According to PFF, he had his third-highest slot rate (32.6%) in Week 13 and his highest slot rate (43.8%) in Week 15, after Washington's bye. Dotson's surge in slot rate can pay dividends this week. The 49ers have allowed the seventh-most DK and FD points per game to slot receivers since Week 9. Dotson is more intriguing on DK than FD since he's tied for the WR2V at the former.
49ers Analysis: Christian McCaffrey has a high ceiling that's worth considering. Ultimately, gamers can't use all of the studs, though. San Francisco's defense could make this an uncompetitive game, and CMC might have to thread a needle to outperform the other similar-salaried studs. In Brock Purdy's three games played, the 49ers haven't run CMC into the ground when leading by a wide margin. Instead, McCaffrey toted the rock 21 times when San Francisco led by eight points, and Jordan Mason rushed 16 times. Obviously, CMC can carry a DFS team to the top of a tournament, but splitting hairs is necessary when picking between the superstars on a DFS slate, resulting in CMC narrowly missing the cut.
Game: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: DAL -4.5 Points
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
Eagles Analysis: The Eagles and Cowboys might play a fast-paced game if they don't drastically change their offensive pace with Gardner Minshew as the starting quarterback. The Eagles are first in situation-neutral pace, and the Cowboys are fourth.
The infrastructure and matchup are excellent for Minshew. First, PFF grades the Eagles first in pass blocking. Second, Philly's pass-catching corps is stacked. On the flip side, the Cowboys have struggled to defend the pass lately, ranking 22nd in pass defense DVOA since Week 9.
Minshew made two starts for the Eagles last year and averaged 214.0 passing yards per game while passing for four touchdowns and one interception. Minshew's stats were even more impressive, considering he primarily played with reserves in a meaningless Week 18 contest against the Cowboys. The Eagles have also bolstered their receiver room with the addition of an elite No. 1 wideout, giving Minshew more weapons to work with in this go-round. Therefore, Minshew has a compelling case for being used on DFS squads as a value pick, sporting the QB1V at DK and the QB3V at FD.
A.J. Brown is the acquired weapon teased above. He's balled out in his first season in Philly. Brown is eighth in receiving yards per game (85.8) and tied for third in receiving touchdowns (10) in 2022. He's also fifth in Target Share (28.9) and eighth in Intended Air Yards (1,419). Philly's prized trade acquisition isn't slowing down, either. He's 11th in Yards per Route Run (2.34 Y/RR) among wide receivers since Week 9.
The matchup isn't a deterrent for using him. Instead, it's a plus. The Cowboys have allowed the most DK and FD points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 9. Thus, Brown is projected as the WR6.
Philadelphia's defense is also worth a look on DK, where they're grossly underpriced and have the DST1V. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Eagles have allowed the fewest yards per play (4.7), forced the second-most turnovers (25), had the third-highest pressure rate (24.6%), recorded the most sacks (55) and allowed the sixth-fewest points per game (19.1).
Additionally, Dak Prescott has been a walking turnover. He's thrown multiple interceptions in three of his last four games. Moreover, per PFF, Prescott had the sixth-most turnover-worthy-plays (eight) and threw the most interceptions (nine) since Week 10.
Cowboys Analysis: CeeDee Lamb is sensational. He's sixth in Target Share (28.8%) and 13th in Intended Air Yards (1,301). Lamb is also fifth in Yards per Route Run (2.63 Y/RR) among wide receivers since Week 9.
The matchup might seem scary at a glance. Philadelphia's defense is talented on every level, including in their secondary. Nonetheless, they're mid-pack against slot receivers. The Eagles have allowed the 14th-most DK and 15th-most FD points per game to slots since Week 9. Lamb's excellence and the average matchup make him the WR7 in DFS this week, and he has the WR8V at FD.
Tony Pollard is another intriguing option from Dallas's offense. First, the Cowboys are eighth in Adjusted Line Yards (4.68). Second, Pollard has played well in a career year. He's 10th in scrimmage yards (1,279) among running backs in 2022. Pollard has also scored 12 touchdowns. Further, he's a legit home-run hitter. Since Week 9, Pollard had the most 10-plus yard rushes (18). The dynamic back is projected as the RB6 and tied for the RB5V at DK while projecting as the RB7 and tying for the RB5V at FD.
Dallas's defense was shredded last week. Regardless, they've had massive games this year by harassing quarterbacks. The Cowboys have forced the most turnovers (26) and tallied the second-most sacks (49) in 2022. They can score a bunch of DFS points if Minshew isn't sharp in his first start this year. And, of course, it's optimal the Cowboys are favored and at home. Finally, the Cowboys have the DST2V at DK and the DST1V at FD.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
