We’ve finally made it to the 2022 NFL playoffs! Let’s take a moment to celebrate and reflect on the narratives and parity that emerged throughout the regular season. The MVP race was tightly contested until Jalen Hurts (QB – Eagles) suffered a shoulder injury and Josh Allen (QB – Bills) lost two consecutive games, opening up the door for Patrick Mahomes (QB – Chiefs) to win his second MVP award despite playing without former star wideout Tyreek Hill (WR – Dolphins). Damar Hamlin’s (S – Bills) injury united fanbases and viewers across the world, as the Bills’ safety made a miraculous recovery after his heart stopped for a couple of scary minutes on the field against Cincinnati in Week 17. Austin Ekeler (RB – Chargers) was the RB1 on DraftKings, vacuuming up targets and churning out 18 total touchdowns, while Christian McCaffery’s (RB – 49ers) trade to San Francisco has the 49ers prepped for another deep playoff run. Justin Jefferson (WR – Vikings) and Tyreek Hill dominated the wide receiver position, while Travis Kelce (TE – Chiefs) continues to defy his age and turned in another overall TE1 performance. Lastly, New England, Dallas, San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Buffalo comprised the top five scoring D/ST units in DFS lineups. Four of these teams have advanced to the playoffs, where they will need to continue their high-caliber play to advance towards Super Bowl LVII.
Wild Card Weekend means the stakes are the highest they’ve been all season. The addition of a seventh seed has made the coveted one seed in each conference much more valuable, giving teams a week to rest and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. This excludes Kansas City, who benefitted from the cancellation of Buffalo vs. Cincinnati. The Chiefs will be forced to play at a neutral site in Atlanta if they wind up advancing past the AFC Divisional Round. Meanwhile, Philadelphia will host throughout the Divisional and Conference rounds as the one-seed in the NFC. Several teams are playing each other for either the second or third time this season, while we’re getting three divisional rematches in the upcoming Wild Card round. Expect more low-scoring, hard-hitting games, as running games and stalwart defense tend to be the key ingredients for winning playoff games.
We have ten fewer games than we’ve grown accustomed to when creating DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel, but this also means that certain players who possess sneaky upside in terms of their production can be acquired at a lower salary. Let’s look ahead at my favorite prospects to target when constructing builds before Saturday’s Wild Card Round kicks off with Seattle vs. San Francisco and Los Angeles vs. Jacksonville. Let’s get off to a fast start and cash some contests during the 2022-23 Wild Card Weekend!
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
DraftKings maximum salary is set at $50,000
Josh Allen (QB – Bills): $7,900
Despite being eliminated as the previous 2022 NFL MVP frontrunner, Josh Allen is poised to take Buffalo on a deep playoff run to avenge its overtime loss to Kansas City a year ago. Allen has produced at least 22 DK points in three consecutive weeks, including a 39.8 point outing against Miami in Week 15. The Dolphins defense is the second-best quarterback matchup in DFS, allowing 21.5 points per game on average this season, so there’s little downside to paying up for Allen in DraftKings lineups during Wild Card Weekend.
Honorable Mention: Kirk Cousins (QB – Vikings) ($5,900) has a tough task in front of him in a rematch against the New York Giants at home. Cousins has been great in a lot of games this season and did produce 24.2 DK points in a 27-24 win on Christmas Eve against New York’s defense, so at under $6,000, he’s worth investing in within an increasingly pass-centric Minnesota offense.
FanDuel
FanDuel maximum salary is set at $60,000
Justin Herbert (QB – Chargers): $7,800
We’ll watch two young franchise quarterbacks face off against each other at TIAA Bank Stadium in Jacksonville on Saturday night. Justin Herbert hasn’t been asked to do a ton downfield this season but he’s still logged five games with at least 20 points on FanDuel. Now that he’s healthier and has Keenan Allen (WR – Chargers) back in the lineup, I expect Herbert to produce against the Jaguars’ bottom-five pass defense. Jacksonville has allowed the eighth-most DFS points to quarterbacks in 2022, averaging 19.48 points per game, so Herbert is a solid value at $7,800 on FanDuel.
Honorable Mention: Dak Prescott (QB – Cowboys) ($7,300) has been turnover-prone since returning from his hand injury but he also has the ability to rack up yards and touchdowns through the air. Replete with weapons like Tony Pollard (RB – Cowboys), CeeDee Lamb (WR – Cowboys), and Dalton Schultz (TE – Cowboys), expect Prescott to light up the Buccaneers’ secondary, which is ranked 15th for DFS quarterback matchups.
Running Backs
DraftKings
Christian McCaffery (RB – 49ers): $8,900
The acquisition of star running back Christian McCaffery at the trade deadline has significantly boosted San Francisco’s offense with third-string quarterback Brock Purdy (QB – 49ers) under center. McCaffery feasts on targets and rips off big runs consistently. He’ll face Seattle’s run defense, which is a top-five DFS matchup, surrendering 28.5 points per game to opposing running backs this season. McCaffery previously recorded 28.8 points in a Week 15 road matchup against the Seahawks, so pay up to acquire his massive ceiling.
Honorable Mention: Leonard Fournette (RB – Buccaneers) ($5,300) will face a stout Dallas defensive front that ranks the third-toughest matchup for fantasy running backs on Monday night. However, Fournette has a relatively safe floor, averaging double-digit points on DraftKings for five consecutive games before the final two weeks of the regular season. He also ripped off 21 carries for 127 yards back in Week 1 against the C0wboys, so there is also a ceiling to obtain with Fournette in DFS lineups.
FanDuel
Austin Ekeler (RB – Chargers): $9,000
Jacksonville’s run defense has tightened up recently but Austin Ekeler isn’t an average running back to contain. He’s arguably the best dual-threat player at the position and the Jaguars still surrendered 24.3 points to running backs per game this season, which makes them the 11th-best matchup to face. Ekeler possesses a massive ceiling, scoring 20 or more FD points in three of his final four games fully played, so ignore his stat line from Week 3 and pay up with confidence.
Honorable Mention: Travis Etienne Jr. (RB – Jaguars) ($7,100) is in a good spot against a bottom-three Chargers run defense. It’s only risky since Jacksonville’s offense got away from the run in a play-in game against a stout Tennessee defensive line. Etienne has only one game over 12 FD points since Week 10, but he’ll have a lot of good looks in theory on Saturday night, making him worth the elevated salary on FanDuel.
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Justin Jefferson (WR – Vikings): $8,400
There’s a lot of chalk plays on this slate and star wideout Justin Jefferson is no different. We saw Minnesota’s top wide receiver cool off in the last two games against Green Bay and for a half against Chicago, but he should be fully rested and prepared to deal against the Giants on Sunday. Jefferson previously logged 34.3 DK points against the Giants in Week 16, so even with the return of Xavier McKinney (S – Giants), Jefferson should easily hit six receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown, flooding DraftKings lineups with points.
Honorable Mention: Tyler Lockett (WR – Seahawks) ($6,000) was the only reliable asset against San Francisco earlier in the season. The veteran wideout has a sneaky top-12 matchup against the 49ers’ bad pass defense, logging 22.7 DK points in Week 2 and 13.8 DK points in a Week 15 rematch against the 49ers. He’s a solid value at $6,000 and should deliver double-digit points yet again with Seattle playing catch up against the league’s best run defense.
FanDuel
Ja’Marr Chase (WR – Bengals): $8,700
Cincinnati’s offensive line is missing several key pieces against one of the league’s best run defenses right now, so expect Joe Burrow (QB – Bengals) to hyper-target star wideout Ja’Marr Chase early and often on Sunday night. Chase is fresh off of a 8-86-1 stat line against the Ravens’ secondary in Week 18 and has a high floor and huge ceiling to justify his high salary on FanDuel.
Honorable Mention: Deebo Samuel (WR – 49ers) ($6,900) returned fully healthy against Arizona in Week 18. Despite barely generating any production, I like his floor against Seattle on Saturday. Samuel doesn’t have the ceiling he possessed last year but Brock Purdy peppers him with five to ten targets per game, which is enough to hit a home-run performance despite the talent Seattle rosters in its secondary.
Tight Ends
DraftKings
George Kittle (TE – 49ers): $6,100
Brock Purdy’s tenure as QB1 in San Francisco has resulted in George Kittle exploding with production. Kittle has logged 18.9 DK points or more in three of his past four games entering the best matchup for fantasy tight ends on Saturday. The Seahawks allow 17.1 points per game to opposing tight ends, so Kittle is a smash play despite the high salary.
Honorable Mention: Gerald Everett (TE – Chargers) ($3,900) isn’t going to flood your DFS lineups with points but he’s been more involved lately within the Chargers’ offense. Everett will face Jacksonville, who is the eighth-best tight end matchup this season in DFS, so expect roughly 10 DK points and a nice floor at a discounted salary.
FanDuel
Dalton Schultz (TE – Cowboys): $6,200
We’ve seen Dak Prescott frequently turn to his tight end, Dalton Schultz, throughout the course of this season. While Schultz’s numbers aren’t eye-popping, the Buccaneers allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game on FanDuel. Schultz has seen nine or ten targets in each of his past two games, so Prescott will likely be looking his direction as the Cowboys may opt for a more pass-heavy game plan against Tampa Bay’s stout run defense.
Honorable Mention: Dawson Knox (TE – Bills) ($5,600) is a huge value against Miami on Sunday. He’s delivered double-digit finishes in three of his past four games and has logged a touchdown in four straight outings. He also gets a top-five matchup against Miami’s pass defense, as Knox caught six of eight targets for 98 yards and a touchdown in Week 15. He’s a massive value despite the elevated salary on FanDuel.
Defense/Special Teams
DraftKings
49ers D/ST: $3,600
Seattle will throw the kitchen sink at San Francisco’s defense but it won’t be enough to overcome the swarming defense that the 49ers deploy. Geno Smith (QB – Seahawks) has been increasingly turnover-prone and if Seattle cannot establish the run against the league’s best remaining run defense, it’ll be a long afternoon for the Seahawks. They average 9.5 FPPG this season on DraftKings, so don’t overthink this one.
Honorable Mention: Chargers D/ST ($3,100) will face Jacksonville on the road on Saturday night. While the run defense has been glaringly bad all year, the pass defense is stout with Derwin James (S – Chargers) and Asante Samuel (CB – Chargers) leading the way in the secondary. I’m willing to save a few dollars and invest in a defense that will force Etienne and Lawrence to beat them with their legs instead of through the air.
FanDuel
Bills D/ST: $5,000
Buffalo has the easiest matchup defensively in Wild Card Weekend, facing Miami’s QB3 Skylar Thompson (QB – Dolphins) on Sunday. The Bills are also playing better as a collective defensive unit, so with the added motivation and emotion they’ll have playing for Damar Hamlin, in addition to the expected absence of Raheem Mostert (RB – Dolphins), Buffalo should roll as -13.5-point favorites at home.
Honorable Mention: Baltimore Ravens D/ST ($3,600) have been a force stopping the run, while also doing a better job of containing big passing plays. The acquisition of Roquan Smith (LB – Ravens) at the trade deadline has boosted Baltimore’s run defense, which could wind up engaging in a low-scoring matchup despite being outmatched with offensive personnel against Cincinnati. The Ravens’ D/ST is worth investing in against the downgraded offensive line of the Bengals on Sunday night.
