When it comes to the late set of fantasy football snake draft picks, a well-prepared and adaptable strategy is essential. It’s no longer about determining which players are good or bad since they are being drafted in Round 1 for a reason. Instead, the focus shifts towards establishing a solid foundation that sets the standard for your roster throughout the draft. Even before making your selection towards the back end of Round 1, it’s crucial to consider your player targets for the crucial Round 2 follow-up. In order to achieve success in this exercise, the importance of preparing tier lists or utilizing FantasyPros’ built-in tiers and rankings cannot be overstated. However, the task becomes more challenging without a top-8 pick, as will be the case in this scenario.
- Early Snake Draft Picks Strategy & Advice | Middle Pick| Late Pick
- Best Ball Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Dynasty Trade Value Chart
- Dynasty Rookie Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
As we approach the end of Round 1 in the 2023 fantasy football drafts, one question looms large: the debate between selecting RB, WR, or possibly even QB, and how that decision will impact subsequent rounds. Draft slots in the 1.09-1.12 range, where there tends to be more variability compared to earlier in Round 1, are set to offer an exciting experience. In this article, we will consider these selections as “late snake draft picks,” with the early snake picks ranging from 1.01 to 1.04 and the middle snake picks falling between 1.05 and 1.08 in traditional 12-team fantasy football leagues. The ADP source for this discussion will be Underdog and FFPC Best Ball, with the latter serving as the host for the 2023 FantasyPros Championship.
Fantasy Football Snake Draft Strategy for Late Picks
Let the Draft Begin.
Rounds 10 and Beyond
You should be actively implementing “what if” thought exercises in the late rounds of your fantasy football drafts. Simply put, “if “x” happens, what would that do to “x” player’s value.” Again, this is most commonly seen from injuries, with players seeing spikes in production/value when a teammate goes down. Some players have that factored into their ADPs with injury-prone teammates, but others do not. And at the end of the day, it’s full-contact football. Guys we expect to get hurt and guys we don’t expect to get hurt are going to miss games. We can’t project when/if said injuries are going to happen, but what savvy drafters can do is stockpile the back of their drafts with talented players that are being discounted because of their situation.
Worry not about what Player A’s role will be in Week 1 when you draft them in the late double digits. Chances are that doesn’t matter. Focus on what’s in the players’ range of outcomes should he see an expanded role as the season wanes.
That was one of the biggest takeaways from my Wide Receiver Season Recap & Advice for 2023 (Fantasy Football). Don’t overvalue early-season opportunities versus talent. I fell for the Romeo Doubs‘ hype train and didn’t invest nearly enough in Christian Watson, even though everything that was not written by a Packers training camp beat reporter clearly showed that Watson was the superior prospect. And all it took was for him to get healthy and for Doubs to underwhelm as a Day 3 pick – not shocking – for everybody else to get on board.
Just buy the dip on talent when the ADP is so suppressed due to the situation. And don’t forget about the players that delivered worthwhile performances in the past when they were presented with opportunities. Being a proven asset in some capacity matters.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Brandon Aiyuk, Marquise Brown, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Garett Wilson, Richie James Jr., Greg Dortch, and Elijah Moore all either increased their production or commanded targets at a high rate due to injuries to teammates around them this past season. Not all of them will be late-round picks, but some definitely will. And those are the archetype of players you should be looking to target.
Some of my favorite late-round WRs (outside the top 100) include Elijah Moore, Jakobi Meyers, Zay Jones, Skyy Moore, Jonathan Mingo, Nico Collins, D.J. Chark Jr., Rashid Shaheed, Hunter Renfrow, Isaiah Hodgins, Richie James Jr. and Deonte Harty.
Hodgins seems like a completely forgotten WR, despite the fact that he could lead New York in targets in 2023. Once fully entrenched in the offense from Week 12 onward, Hodgins has zero drops on 45 targets and averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game – equivalent to Chris Olave and Deebo Samuel (WR25). He averaged 9.1 fantasy points per game overall on the year.
I also believe in another thought exercise of,” He’s the discount version of Player X.” I find it very useful. Why draft a committee pass-catching back in Jahmyr Gibbs in Round 3 when you can draft Antonio Gibson so much later?
Players that have defined roles that go extremely late can also be beneficial targets. The constant bombardment of “upside-centric” analysis make these players not talked about enough. Even though players entering 2022 like Zay Jones and Curtis Samuel – clearly defined roles on offense with spikes of proven production – were strong contributors to their rosters. There’s an upside to playing an every-down role on an offense. JuJu Smith-Schuster anyone?
Hence, why chasing the upside-centric dragon is not wrong. You want upside on your fantasy football teams. But some balance never hurts. Because “only-upside” players typically also have extremely shaky floors. And too many guys that fail to fire will leave your squad helpless.
Chase players that project for air yards and rookies. Air yards tell us how often a player is being used downfield, which is part of the formula when it comes to spike weeks of fantasy production. Particularly at WR and TE.
Some potential late-round guys in 2023 drafts that commanded a high end of their team’s air yards (20% or higher) in 2022 include Darius Slayton, Van Jefferson, Nico Collins, D.J. Chark, Alec Pierce, Terrace Marshall, Corey Davis, Marvin Jones, Tyquan Thornton, Michael Gallup, Mack Hollins, Rondale Moore, and Chase Claypool.
Players with high aDOTs (average depth per target) include Jameson Williams, Gabe Davis, George Pickens and Jahan Dotson.
When it comes to rookies, you need to be aggressive in drafting them throughout the summer months. I mentioned this in both the RB best-ball primer and WR best-ball primer. Specifically for rookie WRs, it is even more important.
Their ADPs often do not fully capture the upside they possess. The ADP acts more like a hedge or median projection when first-year players of recent years are so much more boom-or-bust. They either hit in a big way – Garrett Wilson, Jahan Dotson, George Pickens, Drake London, Chris Olave, Christian Watson – or drastically underwhelm – Skyy Moore, Treylon Burks, Jameson Williams. They are lottery tickets that you need to always draft as they are frequently discounted outside the top 36. Take full advantage.
Keep in mind that rookie WRs’ roles often grow as the season progresses. That makes them the perfect backfill targets for best ball formats that have prize structures heavily based on the final few weeks of the season.
If you missed out on a quality tight end in the early rounds then chasing quantity with multiple guys in the late rounds is your new strategy.
This is essentially my Tier 4 of tight ends which ranges widely from TE15-TE32. As briefed in the tight end best ball primer, you don’t want to overextend yourself for any of these TEs because the production will likely be negligible at best drafting toward the beginning of the tier versus the end. So just wait and take shots on multiple tight ends.
Ideally ones with either a path for receiving volume, an every-down role, and/or above-average athleticism.
Chigoziem Okonkwo is by far my favorite late-round tight end to target. Other late-round tight options I like are Dalton Kincaid, Tyler Higbee, Mike Gesicki, Irv Smith Jr., Juwan Johnson and Jelani Woods.
Woods was listed as a tight end in Pat Fitzmaurice’s Fitz’s Fantasy Football Draft Targets: Tight Ends. And I am on board. The second-year tight end has gotten some recent lip service from the new coaching staff in Indianapolis and is uber-athletic. He finished the season from Week 12 onward second in yards per route run among all tight ends (2.6).
Among the late-round QBs, it’s critical that you draft knowing what their schedule is to open the season. Because they are non-established studs, you need to know they have plus-matchups working in their favor to trust them in your starting lineup.
Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, Jordan Love, Desmond Ridder and Geno Smith all have decent schedules to open the season based on matchups alone.
My favorite late-round quarterback options include Geno Smith, Anthony Richardson, Derek Carr, Kenny Pickett, Jordan Love and Mac Jones.
And finally, late-round running backs. Do not handcuff your running backs in traditional formats, where you have access to the waiver wire. However, you do want to handcuff your RBs in the best ball format. A No. 2 RB filling in for an injured starter that got you to the playoffs could be your key to victory in Week 17.
Other things to keep in mind:
- Identify running backs with the potential to see/possess goal-line roles in high-scoring offenses. Pinpointing a team’s primary red-zone back is an easy way to hit on a fantasy running back.
- If you are fading the “starter” you should naturally be higher on one of their backups.
- Target impending free agent running backs. Notable free agents at the end of the 2023 season include: Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, D’Andre Swift, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, A.J. Dillon and Antonio Gibson. Joe Mixon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire have club options in their contracts.
- Aim for running backs on teams that have no clear-cut starter – ambiguous backfields. This is where breakout running backs are often found.
Outside the top-100 ADP, my favorite running backs include Rashaad Penny, Damien Harris, Antonio Gibson, Kendre Miller, Roschon Johnson, Jaylen Warren and Chuba Hubbard.
Rounds 10 and Beyond Takeaways:
- Implement “what if” thought exercises to identify players whose value could spike due to injuries or expanded roles later in the season.
- Focus on talent and range of outcomes for players with suppressed ADPs due to their situations.
- Target late-round wide receivers with potential for increased production due to injuries to teammates, proven assets, or defined roles on their respective offenses.
- Consider players with high air yards or aDOT (average depth per target) for potential spike weeks of fantasy production.
- Be proactive in drafting rookies, especially rookie wide receivers, as their ADPs may not fully capture their upside.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
