Let’s dive into fantasy football sleepers! I selected the start of Round 8 as my cut-off for sleepers because I’ve often found that’s the range in the draft when we start to see breakout RBs emerge.
The main goal is that one or several of them beat their average draft positions (ADP) by a significant margin, akin to performances from Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyler Allgeier, Dameon Pierce, Jerick McKinnon, Isiah Pacheco, D’Onta Foreman, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, Garrett Wilson, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones and Tyler Conklin last season.
Be prepared to find hidden talents across all teams, including those in unexpected situations like the Arizona Cardinals. My only requirement is that these players possess ADPs outside the top-84 players (in some capacity because this can vary by draft platform).
Get ready to make strategic moves and uncover the next breakout stars! Here are my top fantasy football sleepers for all NFL teams. Below we’ll offer a free look at a few of these names.
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
- Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
- 2023 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
Damien Harris had a lackluster 2022 campaign with the New England Patriots, playing in just 11 games due to injuries and averaging only 8.8 fantasy points and 49 rushing yards per game when he was on the field. However, he has found a new home with the Buffalo Bills, who signed him to a one-year contract to add more size to their backfield. With the Bills prioritizing a more balanced run-pass offense this offseason and improvements made to their offensive line, Harris could be in for a bounce-back season. While Rhamondre Stevenson was the primary RB for the Patriots last season, Harris could carve out a role as the Bills’ featured red-zone back. In 2022, former Bills RB Devin Singletary totaled just four rushing TDs inside the 10-yard on 16 carries. Harris scored just as many times from inside the ten-yard line as Stevenson (three times) despite being out-carried in that area of the field 19 to six. However, it’s worth noting that QB Josh Allen is often used as a goal-line rusher, which could limit Harris’ touchdown upside. But we have seen quarterbacks run less at the goal line as they get older, so there’s still a chance that Harris flirts with double-digit scores should his arrival mean the team leans on him more as their preferred rusher near the pylon to protect their franchise quarterback in the long term. Harris has landed in a situation that could provide him with plenty of scoring opportunities in 2023.
Chuba Hubbard finished the 2022 season as PFF’s 21st-highest-graded rusher averaging 4.9 yards per carry. He also flashed efficiency in the receiving game ending the year tied for 6th in yards per route run (1.55) with Austin Ekeler. Only Derrick Henry bested him in yards per route run over expectation among RBs (+0.67).
After the team traded Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers, Hubbard’s role increased from Week 7 onward as he was able to carve out a 1B role in the backfield alongside D’Onta Foreman. With a three-down skillset, Hubbard has massive fantasy football appeal as a handcuff to Miles Sanders in 2023. Hubbard also has a chance to capture the main RB receiving role in the Panthers backfield.
Meet Roschon Johnson, the Bears’ fourth-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Despite sitting behind Bijan Robinson at Texas, the 8th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Johnson managed to post an impressive 49% missed tackle rate and finished fourth in yards after contact per attempt among the 2023 draft class. With bell-cow size at 6 feet and 219 pounds and tenacity to match, Johnson has the potential to become a major player in the Bears’ backfield. Johnson only started five games in his 47 total games played as a Longhorn, but his size and athleticism caught the attention of the Bears, who drafted him with the hope that he can compete with veterans D’Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert for snaps. Despite being a mid-round pick, Johnson has a good chance to rise the depth chart and make an impact early on, especially since he won’t have to compete with the likes of an elite stud like Robinson for playing time. In fact, don’t be surprised if Johnson beats out Foreman by the time training camp concludes. His reliable work on special teams and pass protection — 4th-highest graded pass-blocker in the 2023 RB class per PFF in 2022 — should earn him early playing time, and if he can continue to display his impressive ability to make defenders miss, he could end up being a steal for fantasy football managers. Keep an eye on Johnson as a potential sleeper pick who could pay big dividends down the road. Chicago has the fifth-easiest schedule overall and they also boast a juicy playoff schedule (CLE, ARI, ATL) that could benefit whichever Bears RB emerges late into the season.
Denver signed ex-Bengals running back Samaje Perine – 2 years, $7.5 million, $3 million guaranteed – after releasing Chase Edmonds (Buccaneers) and moving on from Mike Boone (Texans). With Javonte Williams potentially delayed in return from his knee injury, I’d suspect that Perine (RB 46 ADP) picks up the slack to open the year if he stays in the Mile High City. The Broncos have zero other RBs of note currently under contract. Therefore, Perine has the chance to provide immediate fantasy value to start the year after carving out a role in the Bengals’ offense alongside Joe Mixon last season. He served as the primary third-down back for the entire season. And when Perine got the starting nod from Weeks 11-13, the 27-year-old went OFF averaging 23.6 fantasy points per game. Perine is a legitimate threat to Williams’ workload as he could easily earn the passing-down work after finishing last season 6th in PFF pass-blocking and 14th in RB targets.
Devin Singletary joins the Houston Texans on a one-year deal worth $3.75 million, where he is expected to back up the team’s lead rusher, Dameon Pierce. Singletary’s 2022 season with the Buffalo Bills was productive as he operated as the 1A in the team’s backfield, finishing as the RB23 overall and RB27 in points per game. However, he shared touches with rookie James Cook, leading to a full-blown committee situation. Cook matched Singletary point-for-point and averaged a 40% snap share over the final seven games. Singletary totaled just nine more carries than Cook from Weeks 13-20 but ended the year 10th in PFF rushing grade (two spots ahead of Pierce). While Singletary’s strong finish over the last two seasons won’t help his case to become Houston’s lead rusher, he is a credible threat to Pierce’s workload compared to the other available options on the team. Singletary’s PFF pass-blocking grade (73.2, 8th) could also secure his usage on passing downs, where Pierce struggled as a rookie (32.3, 52nd) in that capacity. Still, Pierce’s potential to be a three-down back is higher as Singletary hasn’t thrived as a receiver.
Overall, Singletary’s role in Houston’s backfield is ambiguous, but he brings quality depth and veteran experience to the team. With a history of being productive in committee situations, he could become a valuable fantasy asset if Pierce suffers an injury or if the team decides to operate more in a committee fashion. Singletary already thinks that is going to be the case, stating that he and Pierce will be a solid one-two punch. He also said it’s been shown in this offense that more than one guy can eat. Considering the lack of reliable targets among the team’s hodgepodge WRs (Nico Collins withstanding), don’t be shocked if Singletary posts solid reception numbers yet again. He’s caught at least 43 balls and earned at least 53 targets over the past three seasons. He has also never played fewer than 57% of his team’s offensive snaps over his four-year career.
I’d also be hard-pressed to not bring up the record of running backs in the Kyle Shanahan/49ers system with former 49ers staffer Bobby Slowik taking over as the Texans offensive coordinator. You never want to draft the first guy based on ADP.
- 2022: Elijah Mitchell drafted RB1. Christian McCaffrey RB1.
- 2021: Raheem Mostert drafted RB1. Elijah Mitchell RB1.
- 2020: Raheem Mostert drafted RB1. Jeff Wilson Jr. RB1.
- 2019: Tevin Coleman drafted RB1, Matt Breida drafted RB2. Raheem Mostert RB1.
- 2018: Jerick McKinnon drafted RB1, Alfred Morris drafted RB2. Matt Breida RB1.
- 2017: Carlos Hyde drafted RB1. Hyde RB1.
We saw something similar play out in Miami last offseason, with Shanahan disciple Mike McDaniel casting off Chase Edmonds as the first Dolphins RB drafted in fantasy.
De’Von Achane (MIA)
Devon Achane is one of the most exciting rookie running backs entering the league this season. In his final year at Texas A&M, Achane exploded for 1,100 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, while also catching 36 passes (3.6/game) for 196 yards. He finished the season with a 33% dominator rating, proving that he can handle a large workload as the clear-cut No. 1 back for the Aggies. Despite concerns about his size, Achane proved his toughness by carrying the ball 38 times for 215 yards and two touchdowns in his final game against LSU.
The Miami Dolphins made a smart move by selecting Achane in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft. He is a perfect fit for their outside zone running offense, and his elite track speed will make him a terror for opposing defenses. The current depth chart in Miami consists of an injury-prone Raheem Mostert and journeyman Jeff Wilson Jr., so Achane has a real chance to earn opportunities if not the starting job altogether. Not only is Achane a dynamic runner, but he is also an elite kickoff returner. He finished last season as PFF’s third-highest graded kick returner among 2023 draft-eligible players. This ensures he will be an active player on game days, giving him additional opportunities to make an impact. Achane’s potential in Miami’s offense and lack of competition behind him makes him a great high-upside pick in fantasy drafts.
The Dolphins opted to bring back both Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson for the 2023 season, but Wilson’s contract is worth more and has more guaranteed money. Plus, at just 27 years old, Wilson has a longer runway for his career. He will be competing with rookie Devon Achane for snaps in the backfield but given his experience and demonstrated ability to produce in the Dolphins’ offense – he immediately took on a sizable role after being traded to Miami last season – Wilson should be considered the better option than Mostert among the two veterans. His ability to contribute to the passing game and his larger role in the offense makes him a strong late-round flier option for fantasy managers looking for running back depth.
Including games played with SF, Wilson was a fantasy RB2 in 53% of his games played last season – better than Alvin Kamara (50%). I’d be happy to draft the high-upside rookie Devon Achane and Wilson to capture the high-end potential of this Dolphins offense at a cheap cost.
Kendre Miller spent his first two seasons in a two-way platoon with Zach Evans before the latter transferred to Mississippi. Miller flashed talent in a limited sample size, leading the FBS in yards after contact per attempt (5.06) in 2021. But with Evans gone in 2022, Miller was thrust into the RB1 role for the Horned Frogs, where he posted a career-high 23 percent dominator rating. The bell cow rushed for nearly 1400 yards at 5-foot-11, 215 pounds (identical to Bijan Robinson), and his size is enticing in addition to the efficiency he displayed on a per-play basis at the college level. Miller’s career of 3.14 yards per play ranks fourth best in the class. He’s explosive with the ball in his hands, as indicated by his 21 rushes of 15-plus yards last year (tied for the fifth-highest in the class). Per Sports Info Solutions, Miller also posted the 4th-lowest bust run rate (percentage of plays that resulted in EPA below -1) and finished first in his class in broken tackles per 100 touches (18). Miller did not test at all during the pre-draft process (recovering from post-season knee surgery), but that didn’t stop the New Orleans Saints from investing a third-round pick in him during the 2023 NFL Draft. Miller is an ideal home-run hitter and a 1-2 punch fit with veteran Jamaal Williams. The Saints also benefit from the league’s easiest schedule, putting Miller in a spot to face soft matchups when he finally earns opportunities.
Rashaad Penny finds himself in a new situation in Philadelphia, signing a one-year deal with the Eagles in the offseason. He’s expected to compete for the early-down lead back role, following in the footsteps of Miles Sanders. In 2022, Penny’s on-field production was impressive, averaging over six yards per carry and ranking second among all RBs in rushing percentage that resulted in 10-plus yards. However, he missed a significant amount of time due to injuries. Quarterback Jalen Hurts‘ presence at the goal line will obviously hinder Penny’s TD potential to some extent but make no mistake that the former first-round pick has the potential to score beyond just the 5-yard line. Of his 14 career touchdowns, 11 have come on 10-yard-plus plays, with seven of those being 30-plus plays from scrimmage. However, the addition of D’Andre Swift and the re-signing of Boston Scott could hinder Penny’s chances of a significant role in the Eagles’ offense.
While Swift and incumbent Kenneth Gainwell are expected to be the superior pass-catchers, Penny’s efficiency as a pure rusher should not be overlooked. However, his injury track record could impact his availability and overall production. With his low-risk contract, fantasy managers should consider Penny as a high-upside late-round selection, but it’s important to monitor his role/injury health status in the Eagles’ backfield throughout the offseason.
Former undrafted 2022 free agent, Jaylen Warren shined with every opportunity he got in the Steelers backfield last season. After earning the No. 2 role behind Najee Harris, Warren finished third in rushing success rate (45.5%) and second in the 2022 RB class in yards per route run behind just Breece Hall. Warren’s efficient play suggests he will continue to see snaps alongside Najee Harris. But further baked into his upside case is that should Harris miss anytime, the 215-pound Warren would inherit bell-cow duties without any other Steelers RBs behind him yearning for touches. Initial reports from OTAs have raved about the second-year back, citing that it will be “impossible” for Matt Canada to keep him off the field as much as he did last season.
Elijah Mitchell had an up-and-down second season in 2022, mainly due to injuries. Mitchell got injured in Week 1 and couldn’t return to the field until Week 10 after the team traded for Christian McCaffrey. However, in his first game back, he showed flashes of his potential by rushing for 89 yards on 18 carries. Unfortunately, Mitchell got hurt again after seeing middling usage over the next two weeks. During the 3-week stint playing alongside McCaffrey, Mitchell earned 40% of the team’s RB touches to CMC’s 51%. However, it’s very much worth noting that 65% of Mitchell’s total touches came in the second halves of those games, with the 49ers protecting leads in two of the contests. Despite his injury downside, Mitchell’s efficient play last season solidified him as the primary handcuff to McCaffrey in 2023. He could see occasional spikes in production even while CMC is healthy, as he did at times in 2022. However, it’s unlikely he’ll have a consistent role as the No. 2 running back on the depth chart. Overall, Mitchell’s injury history is a downside factor, but his potential and role as the primary handcuff to McCaffrey make him a valuable late-round pick in fantasy drafts.
Zach Charbonnet started his college career at Michigan in 2019, where he started ahead of the future NFL draft selection, Hassan Haskins. But in 2020, Charbonnet’s numbers regressed in a six-game season for Michigan due to COVID-19. He split time with Haskins again, while also losing out to work to another NFL-drafted Chris Evans and up-and-coming running back star, Blake Corum. Charbonnet was part of a major running back by the committee as a Wolverine, so he transferred to UCLA in 2021 and immediately saw his production skyrocket. He would post a 25% dominator rating as a junior, finishing third among all RBs in PFF rushing grade. Charbonnet’s 2022 senior production was also elite, as he finished 4th in PFF rushing grade among all RBs topping his grade from the year before. But more importantly, for fantasy purposes, the 6-foot, 214-pound running back improved his receiving game, catching 37 balls for 320 yards on 44 targets. He posted the 5th-highest PFF receiving grade and tied for first in receptions per game (3.7) among his draft class. The former UCLA running back also finished with the highest positive run rate (57%) and lowest bust rate (4%) among drafted running backs. The Seattle Seahawks selected Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft (52nd overall) pairing him with last year’s second-round pick, Kenneth Walker III. Charbonnet can’t deliver home run rushes like Walker, but he can be trusted to hit doubles as a rusher and receiver consistently. Charbonnet’s 3-down skill set combined with his draft capital suggests he will be used by the Seahawks plenty as a rookie, and he could end up being the better fantasy asset compared to Walker. Keep in mind that head coach Pete Carroll is never afraid to shake things up when it comes to his backfield. The team drafted Rashaad Penny in the 1st round of the 2018 NFL Draft. But former 7th-round draft pick Chris Carson was the team’s leading rusher in 2018, 2019 and 2020. One of Charbonnet’s closest comparisons based on his size and weight is Carson.
Rachaad White‘s rookie season saw him flash his legitimate 3-down back skill set in the Buccaneers’ offense. Despite working in a timeshare with Leonard Fournette, White was able to average 11 fantasy points per game (RB26) and operate as the 1A back in the second half of the season despite averaging just four yards per carry. While he wasn’t particularly efficient on the ground, White was still a better rusher than Fournette. And more importantly, he showed proficiency as a receiver with 50 receptions (11th among all RBs), which helped him solidify his role as the team’s RB1 for the upcoming 2023 season. However, there is a downside to White’s projection for the upcoming season, given the potential struggles of the Tampa Bay offense without Tom Brady. But with White’s work as a receiver, he could still be valuable in games where the Buccaneers are chasing points. Additionally, the release of Fournette and the addition of cast-off Chase Edmonds and UDFA Sean Tucker gives White less competition for touches in the backfield. Overall, White’s versatility and solidified role as the RB1 make him a solid pick in fantasy drafts for the 2023 season, especially in PPR formats. While there may be some concern about the overall state of the Tampa Bay offense, White’s receiving skills and potential for an increased workload make him a player to target in fantasy drafts.
Antonio Gibson had a polarizing 2022 season, splitting work in the Commanders’ backfield with rookie Brian Robinson. However, Gibson’s proven track record of production, ideal size, and pass-catching chops make him an enticing buy-low running back target. Despite operating as an RB3 for much of the second half of 2022, Gibson remained much more involved in the passing game than Robinson, with an impressive 14% target share and an 80.5 PFF receiving grade. The release of J.D. McKissic further solidifies Gibson’s role as the primary receiving back for Washington. As a free agent at the end of 2023, the team could ride Gibson till the wheels fall off. Additionally, new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy’s arrival may lead to more opportunities for Gibson, as he has no prior commitments to the hierarchy of the backfield from the 2022 season. We could easily see him in a Jerick McKinnon-esque role in Washington. The Commanders’ tough schedule also foreshadows negative scripts, which favor Gibson’s pass-catching abilities. Grab him as early as Round 9 or as late as Round 11.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
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