Fantasy football handcuffs, for the uninitiated, are essentially backup players who are poised to take over for a team’s starter in the event of an injury. This approach, considered an insurance policy, helps you mitigate the risk of losing valuable points due to unexpected injuries. This strategy has been a popular move on draft day, where fantasy managers stash the backups of the prominent running backs they’ve drafted.
The focus on running back handcuffs has gained more significance in recent years. The NFL has gradually shifted away from bellcow running backs while leaning more on running back committees, making these handcuffs even more valuable because they might end up being more than a backup. They might be a 1B starter with a semi-prominent role already.
Here is a look at our updated Fantasy Football Handcuff Report, with some recent player notes breaking down some of the developing situations.
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Starter: Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
Damien Harris has been officially replaced by Ezekiel Elliott, who signed a one-year contract worth up to $6 million ($3 million base contract) with the Patriots this offseason. The incentives-based contract suggests that Zeke will be nothing more than a breather back for New England coming to take the load off Rhamondre Stevenson, while also seeing an opportunity for goal-line usage. The red-zone opportunities are the only legitimate downside to Elliott signing with the Patriots from the Stevenson perspective. But in every other capacity, Stevenson should remain the team’s featured back because Elliott is way best his prime.
Therefore, Stevenson’s role in 2023 will be more of what we saw from Weeks 5-16 of 2022 when he was the RB13 in points per game as the Patriots’ lead back. And recall that even when Harris played alongside Stevenson, the big running back STILL finished third in route participation (58%) and targets (82) among running backs.
Also remember that Stevenson’s strong campaign en route to an RB10 finish was not fueled by touchdowns. Stevenson was one of the worst RBs converting from inside the 10-yard line as he scored just thrice despite 19 goal-line carries. His teammate Harris scored thrice from inside the 10, on just 6 carries. In yet, Stevenson still finished as backend fantasy RB because he’s a super-efficient running back – PFF’s 11th highest graded rusher – with pass-game chops. Stevenson finished as RB1 in 44% of his games last season, which tied Chubb for 6th-highest at the position.
If Stevenson experiences positive TD regression, it’s just gravy on top of his fantasy projection. It’s not like Elliott bogarting goal-line usage in Dallas stopped Tony Pollard from being a fantasy football stud. Buy the ADP dip on Stevenson that Zeke’s signing will undoubtedly cause.
Handcuff: Ezekiel Elliott (RB – NE)
I was vehemently against drafting Ezekiel Elliott across all formats in 2022. I was convinced that his best days were behind him, and that Tony Pollard was the clear-cut better running back in the Dallas backfield. And I felt like the stance was mostly correct. Zeke finished as RB19 versus Pollard’s RB7 status. Elliott posted career lows in yards per carry (3.7), receptions and targets. But he was an absolute TD monster, finishing second in expected touchdowns with 12 real rushing scores. Only Joe Mixon and Jamaal Williams totaled more carries inside the 10-yard line than Elliott. And ultimately the scoring was what made Zeke a usable fantasy asset especially after he returned from injury. He scored eight touchdowns from Weeks 11-17.
For him to sustain any fantasy value in 2023, Elliott will need to carve out a role as New England’s primary red zone back after they signed him to back up Rhamondre Stevenson this offseason. However, Zeke will find that running behind a patchwork Patriots OL is much different than running behind Big D’s elite unit. He’s nothing more than a handcuff to Stevenson, with the occasional spiked week in production if/when he falls in the end zone on an offense that we hope can be at least average in 2023.
Starter/Handcuff: Dalvin Cook (RB – NYJ)
We may have finally seen the end of Dalvin Cook’s elite status among fantasy RBs in 2022. The Vikings star RB finished dead last among all ball carries in rushing EPA and rushes for zero or negative yardage. Cook ended the season as the RB8 overall and RB10 in points per game despite earning the league’s 4th-highest opportunity share (78%). With Minnesota re-investing in the running back position with Alexander Mattison returning, Cook was let go from the roster. Given Cook’s downfall in efficiency, fantasy football managers need to proceed with caution drafting him even with him inking a big one-year deal with the New York Jets. He will likely be used the most during the start of the season, with Breece Hall returning from injury.
However, the Jets have a brutal schedule through the first six weeks, providing Cook no easy path to fantasy production besides volume. And when Hall returns to full health, we are looking at a 1A/1B backfield situation that is hardly ideal for fantasy managers invested in Cook and/or Hall. Cook himself is also recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, giving him limited time to get caught up to speed in the Jets offense.
Starter/Handcuff: Breece Hall (RB – NYJ)
There’s no denying that Breece Hall possesses the talent to be one of the best running backs in the NFL after a stellar rookie season that was unfortunately cut short by a torn ACL. The Jets’ first-year running back was the RB6 in half-PPR points per game in just seven games played (15.4). He averaged 5.8 yards per carry as a rusher and ranked fourth in yards after contact per attempt (4.13) before his season-ending knee injury. Hall also ranked fourth in RB receiving yards while posting an elite 34.4% target rate per route run.
The only hesitance with drafting Hall stems from his October ACL injury that can keep guys off the field for nine to 12 months. The team also signed veteran Dalvin Cook to a one-year deal worth up to $8.6 million, the largest signing of any RB during this free-agency period. It signifies that Cook is going to have a massive role to start the year with Hall coming off an injury. But even when Hall returns to full strength fantasy managers are likely looking at a 1A/1B crowded situation. Hall needs to be viewed as a fantasy RB2 with his upside case based on what he can do in the second half of the season. Hall was recently activated off the PUP list, while Cook continues to rehab his shoulder.
What is a fantasy football handcuff?
A fantasy handcuff is a backup that will likely take over for a team’s starter in the event of an injury. A common strategy on draft day is to stash the backups of the prominent RBs you’ve drafted. Below is a chart of each team’s handcuff along with their Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR) and current ADP.
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