New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
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- NYJ -1.5, O/U 38.5
- New York Jets vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- New York has the second-highest neutral passing rate while ranking 18th in neutral pace.
- Pittsburgh has the 13th-slowest neutral pace while flaunting the third-highest neutral rushing rate.
Jets Players & Weekly Rankings
Aaron Rodgers | QB | QB2 |
Breece Hall | RB | RB1 |
Braelon Allen | RB | RB4 |
Davante Adams | WR | WR2 |
Garrett Wilson | WR | WR2 |
Mike Williams | WR | WR5/6 |
Allen Lazard | WR | WR4 |
Tyler Conklin | TE | TE2 |
Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings
Russell Wilson | QB | QB2 |
Jaylen Warren | RB | RB3 |
Najee Harris | RB | RB2/3 |
George Pickens | WR | WR3 |
Pat Freiermuth | TE | TE1/2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Harris opened the week by missing Wednesday’s practice (ribs). He practiced in full the rest of the week and hasn’t been listed with any injury designation for Week 7. Last week, he played 46% of the snaps with 16 touches and 122 total yards. He retained his leadback role, playing 54.5% of the snaps inside the red zone. Among 61 qualifying backs, Harris ranks 25th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 20th in yards after contact per attempt. Harris could surprise this week with another strong game. The Jets’ secondary remains nasty, but their run defense is beatable. They have allowed the seventh-highest missed tackle rate, the ninth-highest rushing success rate, and the ninth-highest yards after contact per attempt.
Adams will be active this week. The question is, what are we going to get out of him in his first game back with Rodgers? That’s up for debate. How much of the playbook is familiar from his time in Green Bay? How high is his snap share coming off a hamstring injury? It’s all up in the air. Adams opened this week with a full practice, so it’s fair to consider his hamstring close to 100%. The last time we saw Adams catching passes from Rodgers regularly (2021), he had a 31.6% target share, a 37.4% air-yard share, 23 deep targets (15th), and the third-most red zone targets among wide receivers. Adams was the WR2 in fantasy points per game that season. Yes, it has been a few years, but Adams should still be force-fed volume this week. Adams faces a secondary that has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target and the 15th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. He’s best viewed as a volatile WR2 this week.
Wilson’s stock takes a hit with the arrival of Davante Adams. The question is, how much? Wilson is the WR11 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 29.3% target share, a 35.8% air-yard share, a 35.7% first-read share, and producing 1.77 YPRR. Well, we know those market share metrics will be impacted. We’ll have to see how much, though. Wilson leads the NFL in red zone targets. He faces a Pittsburgh pass defense that has the second-highest rate of single-high (68.2%). Against single-high, Wilson’s market share and efficiency numbers look nearly identical to his overall stats. Wilson is a WR2 this week, as we see how the work will be split up between him and Adams. Pittsburgh has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target and the 15th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Conklin has been a matchup-based streaming option again this season. He is the TE19 in fantasy points per game with three deep targets and three red zone looks. He has been a TE1 twice this season (TE4, TE12). Conklin has a 12.4% target share, 1.04 YPRR, and a 7.8% first-read share. Conklin is a low-end streaming option again this week. Pittsburgh has allowed the tenth-most receiving yards and the 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Rodgers is the QB22 in fantasy points per game with two QB1 weeks (QB12, QB10) this season. Rodgers has struggled so far this season with uneven play. Maybe that will change this week with the arrival of Davante Adams, but we need to see it first. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, Rodgers ranks 28th in yards per attempt, 26th in passer rating, and 33rd in CPOE. Pittsburgh has been stout against passing, allowing the 11th-fewest passing touchdowns, the eighth-lowest passer rating, and the ninth-lowest CPOE.
Wilson has been deemed fully healthy and is taking first-team reps this week. It looks like he will make his first start of the season as the team benches Justin Fields, although he has been winning and playing well. Make it make sense, Mike Tomlin. Fields would be in starting consideration this week in fantasy because of his rushing equity, but Wilson should be left on the bench in fantasy leagues. I’m not rushing to start an aging veteran quarterback against a pass defense that has allowed the lowest success rate per dropback, the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, and the third-lowest CPOE. New York has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to passing this season.
Last week, Warren returned to the huddle. He played 37% of the snaps with nine touches and 18 total yards. He still isn’t running like the player we have come to love in fantasy. Warren hasn’t broken an explosive run or forced a missed tackle. He has only 2.10 yards after contact per attempt. Hold Warren on your benches, but he isn’t in starting or flex consideration this week.
In the first game for the Jets with a new coaching regime, Allen’s role was marginalized. He is not strictly a handcuff with very little stand-alone value. He played only 19% of the snaps, with three touches and eight total yards.
Pickens is the WR47 in fantasy points per game with two WR2 outings this season (WR23, WR24). He ranks fifth in deep targets and tenth in red zone looks among wide receivers. Pickens has a 26.7% target share, a 47% air-yard share, 2.40 YPRR, and a 34.3% first-read share. He is a volume play this week in a tough matchup. New York has allowed the second-fewest PPR points per target and the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Lazard has been extremely productive this season as Wilson’s running mate, but that looks to come crashing down in Week 7 with the arrival of Adams. This isn’t a great coverage matchup for Lazard, so even if Adams weren’t on the Jets, I would advise sitting him this week. With Adams on the team, it makes it an even easier call. Lazard faces a Pittsburgh pass defense that has the second-highest rate of single-high (68.2%). Against single-high, Lazard has seen only a 14.4% target share and 14.3% first-read share producing 1.28 YPRR. If you need room for a flex play in a better matchup, Lazard is droppable.
Freiermuth is the TE10 in fantasy points per game with the sixth-most red zone targets among tight ends. Freiermuth has a 15.5% target share, 1.36 YPRR, and an 18.2% first-read share. He’s a borderline TE1 this week with a horrible matchup. New York has allowed the sixth-fewest receiving yards and the seventh-lowest fantasy points per game to tight ends.
DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI
Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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- BAL -3.5, O/U 49
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Baltimore has the 11th-best neutral pace while ranking second in neutral rushing rate.
- The Bucs have the slowest neutral pace in the NFL while sitting at 13th in neutral passing rate.
Ravens Players & Weekly Rankings
Lamar Jackson | QB | QB1 |
Derrick Henry | RB | RB1 |
Justice Hill | RB | RB4 |
Zay Flowers | WR | WR2/3 |
Rashod Bateman | WR | WR4 |
Nelson Agholor | WR | WR6 |
Mark Andrews | TE | TE1/2 |
Isaiah Likely | TE | TE1/2 |
Buccaneers Players & Weekly Rankings
Baker Mayfield | QB | QB1 |
Rachaad White | RB | RB3/4 |
Bucky Irving | RB | RB3/4 |
Sean Tucker | RB | RB5 |
Mike Evans | WR | WR1 |
Chris Godwin | WR | WR1 |
Sterling Shepard | WR | WR4 |
Cade Otton | TE | TE1/2 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Mike Evans is dealing with a hamstring issue. He practiced Saturday and is off the injury repot. Evans will suit up this week.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Flowers is in the midst of a second-year breakout as the WR27 in fantasy points per game. His full-season pace right now is 136 targets, 94 receptions, and 1,136 receiving yards. Flowers is the WR17 in expected fantasy points per game. Among 77 qualifying receivers, Flowers is seventh in separation and 13th in route win rate. Flowers has a 26.6% target share, a 27.1% air-yard share, 2.22 YPRR, and a 32.2% first-read share. The Bucs have utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 with 61.1% of their defensive snaps. Against these coverage types, Flowers has seen his target share balloon to 30% with 2.70 YPRR and a 38.3% first-read share. These are monster market share metrics. Flowers will run about 65% of his routes against Zyon McCollum (47.1% catch rate and 75.2 passer rating) and Jamel Dean (66.7% catch rate and 92.7 passer rating). The Bucs have allowed the tenth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Across the last three games, Shepard has been a regular starter with a 61.7% route share, a 10.3% target share, a 24.5% air-yard share, 1.05 YPRR, and a 10% first-read share. He is a deep-league flex option. Baltimore has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game and the 13th-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Otton is the TE20 in fantasy points per game. That doesn’t really tell the entire story of his season so far. Since Week 3, his usage has increased. Across the last four weeks, he is the TE12 in fantasy with a 17.9% target share, 1.41 YPRR, and a 15.5% first-read share. Otton is third on the team with five red zone targets. He has a glorious matchup this week and should flirt with TE1 value again in Week 7. Baltimore has allowed the most receiving yards and the tenth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Last week, Andrews FINALLY led the tight end group for Baltimore in route share (53%). He turned the playing time into a 15.4% target share, 66 receiving yards (4.13 YPRR), and an 18.2% first-read share. Andrews’ playing time this season has been puzzling, but it seems that Baltimore is finally waking up and realizing that playing Andrews more means good things for this offense. Overall, Andrews has 1.68 YPRR and a 12.7% first read share. He is fifth on the team with only two red zone looks, but they have both come in the last two games. This is a great matchup to consider Andrews for lineups this week. Tampa Bay is 16th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends, but they have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to the position.
Likely has a 53% route share this season with a 14.1% target share, 1.90 YPRR, and a 15.3% first-read share. Likely leads the team in red zone targets (six). Half of those looks inside the 20-yard line have come in the last two games. Likely is a matchup-based streaming option at tight end this week who could finish as a TE1 this week. Tampa Bay is 16th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends, but they have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to the position.
Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
White is dealing with a foot injury. He has been limited all week in practice. The coaching staff has stated this could be a true three-way committee. They have discussed this being a “hot hand approach.” That is frightening. I don’t want to play any Bucs back this week in a terrible matchup for their ground game. If the Bucs have a chance to win this game, it will be because of Baker Mayfield and their passing game not their rushing attack. Sit White. Baltimore’s run defense has allowed the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, the fewest rushing yards per game, and the lowest yards after contact per attempt.
Irving was the team’s leadback last week. Last week, he played 65% of the snaps overall, 73% of the passing down snaps, and had an 84% snap rate in the red zone. Irving finished last week with 16 touches and 105 total yards as the RB12 for the week. He has been impressive this season on a per-touch basis. Among 61 qualifying backs, Irving ranks second in explosive run rate, fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fourth in yards after contact per attempt. He has a brutal matchup this week against a Baltimore run defense that has allowed the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, the fewest rushing yards per game, and the lowest yards after contact per attempt. The coaching staff has stated this is a running back committee, and the back with the “hot hand” will get the ball. That is nightmare fuel. Sit Irving this week with a horrible matchup. We need to see how this plays out before having any confidence in starting any of these Bucs’ backs.
Last week, Tucker worked as the RB2 for the Bucs, but you’d never know that from the boxscore. Tucker had a 38% snap rate, but he had 17 touches, 192 total yards, and two scores as the RB1 for the week. Don’t chase the massive stat line, though. Tucker only had a 30% snap share on passing downs and only 15% of the red zone snaps. The matchup for the Bucs’ ground game this week is horrible. Baltimore has allowed the fourth-lowest explosive run rate, the fewest rushing yards per game, and the lowest yards after contact per attempt. The coaching staff has stated this is a running back committee, and the back with the “hot hand” will get the ball. That is nightmare fuel. We need to see how this plays out before having any confidence in starting any of these Bucs’ backs. Sit Tucker.
Bateman is the WR54 in fantasy points per game with two WR3 or higher games on his 2024 ledger (WR19, WR35). Overall, he has had a 14.7% target share, a 26% air-yard share, 1.74 YPRR, and a 15.3% first-read share. He is tied for third on the team in red zone targets. The Bucs have utilized Cover 3 or Cover 4 with 61.1% of their defensive snaps. Against these coverage types, Bateman’s target share has fallen to 10%, with his YPRR sitting at 1.21 and his first-read share at a minuscule 10.6%. Sit Bateman this week.
DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals
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- LAC -2, O/U 44
- Los Angeles Chargers vs. Arizona Cardinals Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- Arizona has the 12th-fastest neutral pace while ranking 14th in neutral rushing rate.
- The Bolts have the second-slowest neutral pace while ranking ninth in neutral rushing rate.
Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings
Justin Herbert | QB | QB2 |
Kimani Vidal | RB | RB4 |
J.K. Dobbins | RB | RB1 |
Ladd McConkey | WR | WR3 |
Joshua Palmer | WR | WR5 |
Quentin Johnston | WR | WR5 |
Cardinals Players & Weekly Rankings
Kyler Murray | QB | QB1/2 |
James Conner | RB | RB1/2 |
Trey Benson | RB | RB5 |
Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | WR2/3 |
Michael Wilson | WR | WR4 |
Greg Dortch | WR | WR6 |
Trey McBride | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Murray might be the QB13 in fantasy points per game, but that doesn’t really tell the full story about his season. He has two monster games this season that are carrying all the water for his fantasy points per game. Against the Rams and 49ers, he finished as the QB1 and the QB5 for the week with at least 25.1 fantasy points in each game. In his four other starts, he hasn’t finished better than QB15 in weekly scoring and hasn’t surpassed 15.8 fantasy points. His rushing equity is helping cover up his rough passing stats. Murray is tenth in carries per game and third in rushing yards per game among quarterbacks. Among 37 qualifying passers, he ranks 32nd in yards per attempt, 19th in CPOE, and 36th in highly accurate throw rate. He faces an average Bolts’ pass defense, so maybe he can log his third good game of the season in Week 7. The Bolts have held passers in check with the 14th-lowest yards per attempt, but they also rank 15th in passer rating and have given up the 12th-highest CPOE.
Herbert has limped to QB29 in fantasy points per game this season. He hasn’t finished higher than QB21 in any week this season. Herbert ranks 26th in yards per attempt, 31st in passing yards per game, 13th in passer rating, and 26th in CPOE. It’s been rough. All of the Greg Roman worries have been proven correct so far. As bad as it has been, Herbert could be headed for his best game of the season. Yes, I know that’s a low bar to surpass, but it’s still true. Arizona has been a bottom of the barrell pass defense, allowing the second-highest yards per attempt, the fifth-highest passer rating, and the fifth-highest CPOE.
McConkey is the only Chargers wide receiver in consideration for fantasy. He is the only Chargers’ wide receiver who had more than a 53% route share and 12% target share last week. The Bolts utilized wide receiver by committee, with McConkey being the only exception. McConkey is the clear WR1 for the Bolts, seeing a 24.4% target share, a 32.2% air-yard share, and a 30.5% first-read share with 1.99 YPRR. He leads the team with three end-zone targets. He is the WR44 in fantasy points per game with two WR19 weekly finishes this season. He could add a third WR2 finish to the 2024 resume this week. Arizona has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target to slot receivers. McConkey will run about 70% of his routes against Garrett Williams (61.1% catch rate and 69.4 passer rating).
Wilson is the WR58 in fantasy points per game with two WR3 weeks on his 2024 ledger (WR28, WR32). Wilson has had a 17.6% target share, a 26.1% air-yard share, 1.43 YPRR, and a 20.5% first-read share. The Chargers have the third-highest two high rate (59.2%) in the NFL. Wilson has seen his first-read share increase to 21.3% against two high while his other metrics have stayed relatively stable. Los Angeles has allowed the 11th-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers this season.
Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Vidal isn’t startable right now, but he has entered the high-end handcuff territory. Last week, he made his 2024 debut, playing 24% of the snaps with six touches and 51 total yards (one touchdown). Stash him now where you have room. If anything were to happen to J.K. Dobbins, he would immediately fall into the RB1/2 bucket.
Harrison Jr. has cleared the concussion protocol and will play Monday night. Harrison Jr. is the WR36 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 21.2% target share, a 37.9% air-yard share, and a 25.4% first-read share. He has churned out 1.90 YPRR and 46.5 receiving yards per game. Harrison Jr. has four red zone targets while ranking ninth in deep targets among wideouts. The Chargers are third in two high rate this season (59.2%), which will make for a long day for Harrison Jr. Against two high, his target share has fallen to 16.7%, his YPRR dropped to 0.98, and his first-read share dips to 21.3%. Los Angeles has allowed the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers this season.
DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI
Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints
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- DEN -3, O/U 37
- Denver Broncos vs. New Orleans Saints Player Prop Bets via BettingPros
Pace and playcalling notes
- New Orleans ranks 15th in neutral pace and tenth in neutral rushing rate.
- The Broncos continue to up the play volume ranking eighth in neutral pace while sitting at only 17th in neutral passing rate.
Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings
Bo Nix | QB | QB2 |
Javonte Williams | RB | RB3 |
Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | RB5 |
Audric Estime | RB | RB6 |
Courtland Sutton | WR | WR3/4 |
Davaughn Vele | WR | WR5 |
Troy Franklin | WR | WR6 |
Lucas Krull | TE | TE2 |
Saints Players & Weekly Rankings
Spencer Rattler | QB | QB2 |
Alvin Kamara | RB | RB1 |
Kendre Miller | RB | RB5 |
Jamaal Williams | RB | RB4 |
Chris Olave | WR | OUT |
Rashid Shaheed | WR | OUT |
Bub Means | WR | WR4/5 |
Juwan Johnson | TE | TE2 |
Taysom Hill | TE | Doubtful |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Nix has been pulling off his best Daniel Jones impression over the last four weeks. In three of the last four weeks, he has finished as a top 13 fantasy quarterback (QB13, QB8, QB8) despite remaining a bottom-of-the-league passer. Since Week 3, among 37 qualifying passers, Nix ranks 32nd in yards per attempt, 21st in passer rating, 29th in passing yards per game, and 28th in CPOE. His rushing production has helped to make his shortcomings through the air. Nix has averaged 6.2 rushing attempts and 30 rushing yards per game while logging three rushing scores. This week, he could keep the fantasy hot streak rolling against what has become a beatable New Orleans pass defense. The Saints have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game, the ninth-highest yards per attempt, and the sixth-highest success rate per dropback.
The New Orleans Saints’ run defense has begun to crumble, which could allow Williams to post his best-rushing line of the season. Williams is the RB37 this season in fantasy, and sadly, he hasn’t looked much better this season than he did last year. He has averaged 13.1 touches and 59.3 total yards. Among 61 qualifying backs, Williams ranks 39th in explosive run rate and 42nd in yards after contact per attempt. New Orleans has been allowing backs to run all over them, giving up the 13th-highest explosive run rate and rushing yards per game, the sixth-highest rushing success rate, and the third-highest missed tackle rate.
Sutton is the WR45 in fantasy points per game, soaking up a 23.2% target share, a 43.2% air-yard share, and a 32.8% first-read share. He has churned out 1.53 YPRR while ranking third in the NFL in red zone targets. This week’s matchup is an upgrade for Sutton. New Orleans has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers. Sutton will run about 85% of his routes against Marshon Lattimore (54.5% catch rate and 71.8 passer rating) and Paulson Adebo (60% catch rate and 67.7 passer rating).
With all of the injuries to the Saints’ pass-catching depth chart, Johnson could see an elevated role in Week 7. Since Week 4, he has been more involved in the offense with a 9.9% target share, 1.11 YPRR, and a 10.4% first-read share. Johnson has only one red-zone target this season. Denver has been an average matchup for tight ends. The Broncos are 15th in receiving yards and fantasy points per game allowed to the tight-end position.
Fantasy Football Week 7 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
Rattler had a passable first start for fantasy purposes as the QB18 for Week 6, but his per-dropback metrics are all worrisome. Among 37 qualifying quarterbacks, Rattler ranks 30th in yards per attempt, 36th in passer rating, 27th in CPOE, and 35th in fantasy points per dropback. Denver will face the Saints without Patrick Surtain (concussion), but this is a tough enough pass defense that you should consider sitting Rattler, even in Superflex formats. Denver has held quarterbacks to the sixth-lowest passer rating, the third-lowest yards per attempt, and the seventh-lowest CPOE.
Means could operate as the team’s WR1 this week. Last week, in Rattler’s first NFL start, Means had a 70.8% route share, a 20% target share, a 27.5% air-yard share, 1.32 YPRR, one end zone target, and a team-leading 26.9% first-read share. Means is only a deep-league flex option. He’ll run about 65% of his routes against Levi Wallace (71.4% catch rate and 82.4 passer rating) and Riley Moss (60.5% catch rate and 77.7 passer rating). Denver has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Shaheed has been ruled out (knee) for Week 7. He has a meniscus issue that could result in him missing the rest of the season.
Olave has been ruled out for Week 7 (concussion).
Hill has practiced in a limited fashion this week (ribs), but he has been ruled as doubtful and will miss Week 7.
DEN vs. NO | NE vs. JAC | MIA vs. IND | TEN vs. BUF | CIN vs. CLE | HOU vs. GB | SEA vs. ATL | DET vs. MIN | PHI vs. NYG | LV vs. LAR | CAR vs. WAS | KC vs. SF | NYJ vs. PIT | BAL vs. TB | LAC vs. ARI
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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*