Avoiding players this early in the fantasy football offseason is a double-edged sword. Deciding who to avoid can be very valuable, as opinions are marginally influenced by coach speak and camp highlights. On the flip side, as the season nears, it’s hard not to be influenced by a flashy play without pads.
Either way, all opinions at this point need to be re-evaluated when new information arises. At some point, if the coach’s hype is consistent enough, or a player is making a noticeable play every day in camp, it’s time to start reconsidering labelling them as a fantasy football player to avoid at their average draft position (ADP).
I have already shared a list of players to target in each of the first seven rounds. In this article, I’m going to do the opposite, recommending a player to avoid in each of the first eight rounds.
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Early-Round Players to Avoid in Fantasy Football Drafts
Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI) | ADP: 2 (RB1)
This is a terrifying selection. Would anyone be surprised if Saquon Barkley rushes for another 2,000-yard season and scores 15+ touchdowns? Probably not. This Eagles team has primed itself for another Super Bowl run, with the same incredible stability and consistency that led them to last year’s title.
So why am I avoiding Barkley? Joe Pisapia is often known for his personality and iconic hairstyle. He is also a colleague of mine at FantasyPros and does great fantasy work year-round. Pisapia did the groundwork and found that backs who receive over 400 rush attempts see a steep decline in the following season.
Of the 10 backs who received 400+ carries in a season since 2000, none finished within the top 15 the following year. It’s never fun to predict injury for any player, especially one as talented as Barkley. However, Barkley finished last season with 434 rushing attempts (including the playoffs). With the aforementioned track record of backs with 400+ attempts, it would be difficult not to consider the downside.
Saquon Barkley (PHI) had 436 carries last season…
DeMarco Murray ‘14 436 RB2, next year RB15
Eddie George ‘00 431 RB3 ➡️ RB21
Shaun Alexander ’05 430 RB1 ➡️ RB30
Larry Johnson ’06 429 RB3 ➡️RB40
Jamal Lewis ‘00 412 RB15 ➡️ DNP*
Corey Dillon ’04 410 RB7 ➡️ RB18
contd….— Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) June 11, 2025
Thankfully, Barkley is a one-in-a-million player. Much like Derrick Henry, if there were ever a player to buck the trend, it’s probably him.
My reason for avoiding Barkley is not specifically a result of injury risk. Although it is a large portion, I also don’t view the next back listed to see a significant decrease in fantasy production. Over each of their last five games of the regular season, Bijan Robinson averaged five more fantasy points per game than Barkley. Much like the increasing excitement for Drake London, Robinson exploded with Michael Penix Jr. under center. In the three games with Penix, Robinson averaged 22.3 carries, 118 rushing yards, four targets and two rushing touchdowns per game.
Pairing that production with the potential usage risk for Barkley, it’s an easy decision in my opinion. If I’m lucky enough to be picking at the top of my draft, give me Robinson over Barkley.
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND) | ADP: 20 (RB8)
Here are a few backs who had more receptions than Jonathan Taylor last season: Miles Sanders, Zack Moss, Derrick Henry, Kyle Juszczyk and Dare Ogunbowale. On that list are two backs that played less than two-thirds of the season (Moss: eight games; Sanders: 11 games) and a fullback… a gosh darn fullback.
Thankfully, Taylor’s eight games with 100+ rushing yards made his receiving work irrelevant. Why is he on this list? First, backs without any receiving production have a limited ceiling. Unless you are Henry or Barkley, it’s going to be hard for a back like Taylor to return RB8 value. Even though last season he finished as the RB9 while missing three games (which is very impressive), the numbers are skewed.
Going into Week 15, Taylor was the RB27 in points per game. Thankfully, he exploded over the final three games, saving his fantasy value. If he didn’t rush for 520 yards and six touchdowns over three games, we’d be looking at him very differently. That stretch of games contributed to 55% of his rushing touchdowns and 36% of his total rushing yards. That’s wild.
Taking out his three best games is a little unfair. Even if those three games were outliers last season, not many backs can do that. Taylor makes this list not necessarily because he will have a bad year, but because he is that different than backs going after him. For example, Josh Jacobs, Kyren Williams and Chase Brown could have very similar, if not more productive, seasons. At cost, Taylor makes my avoid list.
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ) | ADP: 26 (WR13)
Every few years, we have talented receivers waiting to reach their potential. Two names that come to mind are DJ Moore and Terry McLaurin. Thankfully, Jayden Daniels unlocked McLaurin last season, and Moore had a huge season with Justin Fields in the past. Ironically, that’s one of the reasons I am fading Wilson.
Fields is now the starting quarterback for the Jets. It’s wild that a quarterback who has been traded for a sixth-round pick continues to have starting chances in the NFL. Either way, we now have the Ohio State connection back in business in New York. Since we all believe Wilson is one of the premier talents at the position, I want to focus on Fields.
Over his four-year career, Fields has averaged an abysmal 153 passing yards and 0.9 passing touchdowns per game. His highest average passing yards per game production came in Moore’s breakout season — 197 yards per game. This can’t be a coincidence. If Fields can replicate his career high, there is a path for Wilson to emerge for fantasy.
Unfortunately, out of all of Feilds’ teams in the past, this Jets team is built to run the ball and rely heavily on its defense. The addition of former Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn made it clear this will be a gritty, defensive team in 2025. In 2023, when Fields set a career high in passing yards per game, the Bears were in the bottom third in points allowed. If the Jets find themselves in the bottom third of team defenses, something will have gone wrong.
In the end, if Fields continues his career average in passing yards and touchdowns, it’s going to be tough sledding for Wilson. If that’s the case, to return the WR13 value, Wilson will likely need to haul in 40% of Fields’ total passing yards and touchdowns. That’s a big ask for any receiver-quarterback duo.
Jameson Williams (WR – DET) | ADP: 43 (WR27)
Unlike previous players, where my beliefs are consistent across all formats, Jameson Williams is specifically a “season-long league” avoider. In best ball, he has enough upside each week to be worth his average draft position. However, if you are relying on him every week, he will hurt you more often than not.
In his breakout season last year, Williams had four games in the top 10 at the position and seven games in the top 24. Outside of those finishes, he ranged anywhere from WR28 to WR104 in his full games played. These big games and dud performances were scattered across the season. Therefore, if you had to set your lineup and predict his big games, you were playing with fire. A few names going after him who I prefer their consistency in season-long formats are DeVonta Smith, Zay Flowers and Calvin Ridley.
I also haven’t mentioned the departure of Ben Johnson. Although I believe his impact is being exaggerated, it is unlikely that this offense will be able to maintain the same production as last year. With the offense potentially taking a small step back and Williams’ volatile production, I’ll let someone else ride that rollercoaster.
Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR) | ADP: 53 (RB1) & RJ Harvey (RB – DEN) | ADP: 59 (RB20)
I’m combining Chuba Hubbard and RJ Harvey here. Despite the Broncos being expected to be the superior team, I believe these two are in very similar situations.
Having a running back attached to either Dave Canales or Sean Payton is a great start. We saw Canales hand the backfield over to Hubbard at the end of last year, leading to five of his last seven games as a top-12 fantasy back. As for Harvey, we have seen the reports of Payton gushing over the rookie and what he can bring to the offense. So why do I view them similarly?
Both players are now sharing the backfield with an established veteran. The Panthers brought in hometown kid Rico Dowdle after his 1,300-yard season in 2024. Meanwhile, Denver signed Comeback Player of the Year nominee J.K. Dobbins. Collectively, these two additions will play a larger role than the fantasy community wants to believe.
Payton has a storied history of using a committee backfield. Most notably with Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. In Canales’ one season as a head coach, he relied heavily on Hubbard, but still gave Miles Sanders 129 attempts and only three fewer targets.
With the potential of both backs being in shared backfields, I’d rather take a shot on more guaranteed touches or a split that we have seen before. For example, James Conner and Kaleb Johnson are primed for a lot of touches, and David Montgomery has proven to be a reliable fantasy back despite sharing work with Jahmyr Gibbs.
Jerry Jeudy (WR – CLE) | ADP: 68 (WR34)
Color me skeptical for thinking this Browns team won’t be a functional offense. This offseason, they didn’t just shoot themselves in the foot; they took a shotgun to it. There is no world where drafting Dillon Gabriel in the third round and the personality of Shedeur Sanders in the fifth round will lead to smooth sailing.
Either way, neither rookie signal-caller may see the field this year. The likely starter will be one of Joe Flacco or Kenny Pickett. Based on Flacco’s terrible stint with the Colts last year, my money is on Pickett to be the Week 1 starter. However, neither option is good for Jerry Jeudy.
Pickett has passed for over 200 yards once in his last eight games. Unless winning a Super Bowl magically unlocks his arm, this team is primed for mediocre offensive production. If you are still clinging to the Joe Flacco of 2023, I urge you to watch his 2024 tape — it’s bad. Think about it, Flacco got benched for Anthony Richardson, who is currently about to be benched for Daniel Jones.
Jeudy is coming off his best season, finishing with 90 receptions, 1,229 yards and four touchdowns. That was good enough for a WR15 finish. Although he is heavily discounted, the return of Cedric Tillman and the addition of Harold Fannin Jr. clouds this team’s target share. On this offense, you are hoping Jeudy is a volume receiver with a high floor and a low ceiling. Why take him over similar players on better teams, such as Jauan Jennings, Jakobi Meyers and Chris Olave?
Khalil Shakir (WR – BUF) | ADP: 79 (WR42)
Khalil Shakir is very similar to Jeudy on an infinitely better team. I’d rather take Shakir straight up, despite going 11 picks later. But why take Shakir in the first place?
Last year, in a wide-open receiving room, Shakir finished as the WR38. That was behind Quintin Johnston, Darnell Mooney and Rashod Bateman, all of whom are being drafted after Shakir. Not only are there players after him that I like more, but the situation has become very crowded. With Keon Coleman entering his second year and Dalton Kincaid going into his third, they could both take a step forward. The team also brought in Joshua Palmer and underrated fifth-year receiver Elijah Moore.
Moore is the most similar to Shakir and has already received praise from the coaching staff. Even though we know Josh Allen will carry this offense to elite production, the ball gets spread around too much for Shakir to break free. If you’ve followed my work this offseason, you’ll know I’ll be Darnell Mooney every time over both Jeudy and Shakir.
Cooper Kupp (WR – SEA) | ADP: 90 (WR44)
The receiver cliff is a lot like any villain in any horror movie: When you see it, it’s too late. Not only is the cliff equally horrifying, but it also can’t be stopped without some supernatural ritual. Even though Henry, Mike Evans and Davante Adams seem to possess the secret formula, Kupp doesn’t appear to have it.
Last year was a clear sign that Kupp had lost a step. Not only did he struggle to stay healthy, but despite pushing for a playoff run, the Rams decided to let Kupp walk and bring in Adams. Even if Kupp can rebound from last year, I am not confident Seattle is the best place for him.
This team loves Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Last year, they moved him all around the formation, pacing the team in receptions, yards and touchdowns. Kupp will join the team as the No. 2 WR, predominantly working in the slot. Although there aren’t a lot of weapons, I’m not sure this team will be able to support any top-tier fantasy players.
Additionally, Sam Darnold is now behind arguably the worst offensive line in the league. Sticking with the horror theme, we all know Darnold is known to see ghosts when pressured. This might make Mike Macdonald and Klint Kubiak’s vision of a strong run game and shut-down defense a little difficult. In the end, I’m fading the Seahawks as a whole and don’t see the upside or floor to draft Kupp within the first 100 picks.
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