When preparing for your fantasy football drafts, knowing which players to target and others to avoid is important. The amount of information available can be overwhelming, so a great way to condense the data and determine players to draft and others to leave for your leaguemates is to use our expert consensus fantasy football rankings compared to fantasy football average draft position (ADP). In this way, you can identify players the experts are willing to reach for at ADP and others they are not drafting until much later than average. Here are players to target or avoid with early, middle, and late first-round draft picks in 2025 fantasy football leagues.
Fantasy Football Draft Advice & Strategy
Early-Round Fantasy Football Draft Pick Advice
Players to Avoid at 1.02 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
This isn’t to downplay any of Jahmyr Gibbs’ achievements to date, but it’s hard not to factor in David Montgomery‘s presence. Gibbs finished 2024 as the RB3 in PPR points per game, third in running back total yardage and sixth in running back targets. He was undeniably excellent and had six games with 20+ PPR points, but it’s also fair to point out that two of those came in games without David Montgomery.
Throughout the last two seasons, Gibbs averages 11 PPR points more when Montgomery isn’t available. It’s incredibly hard to be the RB1 overall if you have another running back taking some of the goal-line work and mixing in on high-value situations. Gibbs is a great first-round pick, but not quite worth the 1.02 pick.
Not to downplay David Montgomery, but man… imagine Gibbs full-time with no competition. pic.twitter.com/GWwuhGb1gg
— Tom Strachan (@NFL_TStrack) June 3, 2025
Perhaps if George Pickens hadn’t found his way to Dallas we could have had a very real conversation about CeeDee Lamb as the overall WR1 once again, but that competition on an offense we can have some reservations about does make it tricky.
The Cowboys’ passing offense ranked 26th in pass offense DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) last year, and that wasn’t completely because Dak Prescott missed half the season. When healthy during Weeks 1-9, Prescott ranked 21st in completion percentage, 22nd in yards per attempt and he was on pace for his most interceptions in a season. Perhaps Prescott and the Cowboys can take a step forward, but it’s hard to make a solid argument for Lamb after he only had three top-12 weekly finishes in 2025.
Roster Constructions to Consider at 1.02 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
The 1.02 opens up many roster construction possibilities, but it will largely come down to how you start your draft for how you want to proceed. If you take Ja’Marr Chase, there will still be high-quality running backs available when the draft board makes it back to you, and you’ll have access to the top-end quarterbacks and tight ends.
If you go running back to start the draft, the receivers who make it back are a little less appealing, with Tyreek Hill and Garrett Wilson both bringing question marks to their 2025 seasons. Because of this, my lean is towards wide receiver and taking Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson second overall.
Middle-Round Fantasy Football Draft Pick Advice
Players to Target at 1.05 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
Once we get past the top four picks, including Ja’Marr Chase, Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson, it becomes a slightly more flat tier for several picks.
A few weeks ago, it seemed unlikely Christian McCaffrey would be in this range, but after making it through organized team activities (OTAs) healthy, his rise continues to trend upwards.
At 1.05, Justin Jefferson might be a pipe dream, but redraft leagues can get running back-hungry. If he falls this far, he’s a great pick. Jefferson has 96.5 receiving yards per game throughout his career with no year below 87.5. For reference, only five players averaged above that mark in 2024, one of whom was Jefferson.
The last time that Jefferson was the WR1 was 2022, and he’s been a mainstay in the top five receivers in PPR points per game since 2021. That kind of consistency can be worth paying up for. The case against Jefferson would be that he’s playing with an inexperienced quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, who missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury. If both Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson are also on the field, there are a lot of mouths to be fed.
It also seems likely that Addison might be suspended for the first few games of the year due to a past DUI arrest, opening up the potential for a really strong start for Jefferson.
We might be hesitant about drafting Jahmyr Gibbs ahead of this spot, due to David Montgomery‘s looming presence in the backfield. We’re all very familiar with his presence around the goal line in particular. With that said, Gibbs finished as the RB3 in PPR points per game, third in running back total yardage and sixth in running back targets.
Not to downplay David Montgomery, but man… imagine Gibbs full-time with no competition. pic.twitter.com/GWwuhGb1gg
— Tom Strachan (@NFL_TStrack) June 3, 2025
Gibbs was undeniably excellent and had six games with 20+ PPR points. Four of those games came when Montgomery was healthy and also playing. Gibbs is a ceiling outcome player who might not be as safe as other options, but there’s no denying his upside or how much fun he can be to watch.
It’s hard to elevate CeeDee Lamb ahead of Justin Jefferson since the addition of George Pickens to the Cowboys’ receiver room, but it’s also hard to ding Lamb too much when he’s competed with good receivers before and come out just fine.
Lamb has recorded 150+ targets in each of the last three seasons, and he’s the only receiver to hit that benchmark in each of those seasons. That volume alone makes him a worthwhile pick, and with Pickens an upgrade on Jalen Tolbert, it should help ease away a little attention from Lamb and lift the offense to a more efficient place all around.
This comes down to risk tolerance, and for some, spending a first-round pick on a 29-year-old running back who has only played over 11 games once in the last four years might be a stretch too far. When healthy, Christian McCaffrey is as good as anyone in this league and has won people fantasy championships plenty of times over, but the injury record is cause for concern.
According to reports, McCaffrey took part in everything at organized team activities (OTAs), including some drills most veterans sat out, indicating he’s over his Achilles issues he suffered through in 2024. If he is healthy then it’s hard to fade an elite pass-catcher and game breaking talent.
Isaac Guerendo also impressed last year, to the point that the 49ers were willing to trade Jordan Mason to the Vikings. Guerendo averaged 16.3 PPR points in the games where he saw double-digit touches. He could be in for an increased role in 2025. Even if that role eats into McCaffrey’s ceiling, we’re probably still talking about a top-five running back, and we know how hard it is to find them later in drafts.
Players to Avoid at 1.05 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
There is a lot to like when it comes to Ashton Jeanty, and this isn’t to downplay his upside as a rookie whatsoever, but since 1984, only once has a rookie running back finished as the RB1 overall — Saquon Barkley in 2018.
If you’re drafting Jeanty at the 1.05, you have to assume he has a path to the RB1 overall finish, and that might be wishcasting slightly. The Raiders have a generational tight end in Brock Bowers, who will command volume, and Jakobi Meyers has always outplayed expectations.
It’s also perhaps noteworthy that the Raiders signed Raheem Mostert, who has been a very good goal-line back over the years. If they use him at all in that area, it could significantly eat into Jeanty’s upside. There’s a time for drafting Jeanty, but it isn’t quite this early.
The case for Amon-Ra St. Brown would be that he’s consistently earned targets, with over 140 in each of the last three seasons, as well as seeing his touchdowns increase each year in the league to a career-high 12 in 2024.
The case against St. Brown, however, would be the increasingly strong competition around him. Sam LaPorta was injured to start the 2024 season, and it showed, but he came on during the second half of the season, as did Jameson Williams, who averaged 6.6 targets per game in that spell.
When you’re a possession receiver, like St. Brown, it can be difficult to hit your ceiling if you’re not seeing a huge amount of receptions or scoring touchdowns, and touchdown production can be very hard to predict.
St. Brown belongs in the top 10/top 15, but perhaps not quite this high, unless someone else in the Lions’ offense gets injured.
Roster Constructions to Consider at 1.05 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
The 1.05 opens up many roster construction possibilities, but it will largely come down to how you start your draft for how you want to proceed. If you take CeeDee Lamb, there will still be top running backs available when it’s your turn to pick again, like Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs, and you’ll have access to the top-end quarterbacks and tight ends.
If you go running back to start the draft, the receivers who make it back are a little less appealing, with A.J. Brown and Ladd McConkey both having enough doubts surrounding them to stop them from being first-round talents. Because of this, you might find it easier to go with a Hero RB build with your first running back coming from either the first or second round. If you lean into a Dual RB build, it can become much harder to build a nice wide receiver room.
Late-Round Fantasy Football Draft Pick Advice
Players to Avoid at 1.11 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
It was a strange 2024 season for A.J. Brown. He recorded the second-highest target share among wide receivers (31.1%) and the fifth-most receiving yards per game (83). However, he finished as just the fantasy WR16 in total PPR points. Even on a per-game basis, this only jumped to WR13.
Brown’s 7.5 targets per game ranked 23rd among receivers, which highlights the uphill battle he faced while Saquon Barkley had a season for the history books.
Perhaps if Barkley regresses this year, or if the Eagles trend differently under new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, Brown can move back into the top tier of receivers. For now, the pick 1.11 is too costly for a player with question marks.
Let’s be clear, Ladd McConkey had an excellent rookie season, culminating in a dominant performance in the playoffs with 9/197/1 against the Texans. However, there are reasons to be skeptical that he could live up to his current ADP, which is edging towards round one.
Last year, the Chargers’ run game wasn’t effective, despite J.K. Dobbins‘ best efforts, and the Chargers elected to clean house and move on from both Dobbins and Gus Edwards, while seemingly sending Sione Vaki to the shadow realm. Najee Harris was signed in free agency and Omarion Hampton was added in the draft.
Both represent significant upgrades and should allow long-time ground-game lover, Greg Roman, to play to his strengths more. If that generates a more efficient offense, the need for passing could drop slightly. That is always a concern for receivers, like McConkey, who depend on volume. McConkey is an OK pick in the second round, but drafting him here would be a mistake.
Roster Construction From the 1.11 Pick
The 1.11 pick opens up a lot of roster construction possibilities, but it will largely come down to how you start your draft for how you want to proceed. The good news is that the back half of drafts this year is so strong, you’re almost guaranteed two really good players.
If you take Amon-Ra St. Brown, there will still be running backs available a couple of picks later with immense upside, such as De’Von Achane. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen may be gone before your third and fourth round picks, but Jayden Daniels could potentially be available, and there are still later-round quarterback gems like Justin Fields and Drake Maye, who possess dual-threat abilities.
If you go with a running back to start the draft, the receivers who make it back are still of a good caliber, with A.J. Brown, Ladd McConkey and Drake London all nearby. Wide receivers in the third and fourth rounds tend to be a little more questionable, though, so securing at least one feels like the right move.
Draft Advice for Every First-Round Pick
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.01
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.02
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.03
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.04
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.05
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.06
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.07
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.08
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.09
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.10
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.11
- Mock Draft: How to Approach Pick 1.12
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