The Primer: Week 13 Edition (2025 Fantasy Football)

Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• BUF -3, O/U 45.5
• Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Saints Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Bills Players & Weekly Rankings

Steelers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Josh Allen
• James Cook

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Jaylen Warren (RB)

Last week, Warren played 49.3% of the snaps while giving up the passing game role to Kenneth Gainwell. He had only a 23.5% route share and zero targets. Warren owned the early downs with three red zone rushing attempts (Gainwell, two) and 18 of 28 running back carries. Warren finished with 18 carries and 68 rushing yards. Even if he is the early down complement to Gainwell, Warren is still a very good play this week. Among 54 qualifying backs, Warren ranks third in missed tackle rate and tenth in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 8, Buffalo has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-highest rushing success rate, the highest missed tackle rate, and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Kenneth Gainwell (RB)

Last week, with Jaylen Warren active, Kenneth Gainwell played 52.2% of the snaps with 16 touches and 122 total yards as the RB9 for the week. He took over the passing downs with a 50% route share and 19.4% target share. Gainwell was also involved in the red zone with two rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line (Warren had three). Gainwell is script-agnostic right now, and the better running back play in Pittsburgh. Among 54 qualifying backs, he ranks 23rd in explosive run rate and 24th in missed tackle rate. Gainwell has at least four receptions and 30 receiving yards in three of his last four games. He’s a strong flex play that could easily be a wonderful RB2 this week. Since Week 8, Buffalo has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game, the 13th-highest rushing success rate, the highest missed tackle rate, and the third-highest yards after contact per attempt.

Khalil Shakir (WR)

Khalil Shakir is the WR33 in fantasy points per game and a strong play again this week. He has a 20.4% target share with 51.3 receiving yards per game, 1.99 yards per route run, and a 23.4% first-read share. Shakirk has eight red zone targets and five deep targets. Shakir has finished as a top-36 wide receiver in weekly scoring in 64% of his games this season. He should offer a stable floor and some ceiling this week. Since Week 8, Pittsburgh has allowed the second-most PPR points per target and the fifth-most receiving yards per game to slot receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Dalton Kincaid (TE)

Dalton Kincaid is still dealing with a hamstring issue. He didn’t practice on Wednesday but did manage limited sessions on Thursday and Friday. Kincaid’s snap shares have bounced all over the map this season, with 22.2-55% depending upon the week. He has failed to eclipse a 40% snap share in four games this season. When he has been on the field, he has had a 27% target per route run rate, 3.37 yards per route run, and a 17.4% first-read share. In eight games played, he has had five red zone targets and four deep targets. Kincaid is a volatile tight end option this week with a great matchup. Pittsburgh has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Aaron Rodgers (QB)

Aaron Rodgers will be back this week. With his wrist being a real issue that will likely impact the Pittsburgh game plan and his passing volume, Rodgers will likely be operating as a point guard as he has for most of the season. I expect them to lean on the quick passing game and their backs. Rodgers is the QB23 in fantasy points per game with two QB1 weekly finishes this season. Among 45 qualifying passers, Rodgers ranks 25th in yards per attempt, fifth in passing touchdowns, and 29th in passing yards per game. He has been a checkdown artist with the fourth-lowest aDOT and with the second-highest percentage of his passing yards coming after the catch (66.7%). I would have only minimal interest in playing Rodgers if the matchup was good this week, but since it is horrible, I have zero desire to put him in a lineup. Since Week 8, Buffalo has allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game, the 12th-fewest yards per attempt, the sixth-lowest passer rating, and the fourth-lowest CPOE.

D.K. Metcalf (WR)

D.K. Metcalf is the WR27 in fantasy points per game with a 20.4% target share, a 38.7% air-yard share, 52.1 receiving yards per game, 1.81 yards per route run, and a 26.2% first-read share. He has nine red zone targets and 13 deep targets this season. Metcalf is headed for a down week. The Bills are seventh in two high rate (54.4%). Against two high, Metcalf has seen his usage and effectiveness dip with a 14.8% target share, 1.74 yards per route run, and a 19.1% first-read share. Since Week 8, Buffalo has allowed the tenth-fewest PPR points per target and the ninth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

*Last week, Khalil Shakir was the only Buffalo wide receiver to have more than a 60% route share and 12% target share. This passing attack is a wasteland outside of Shakir and Dalton Kincaid when he’s healthy.*

*The Pittsburgh tight end situation is a stress diarrhea situation that isn’t worth worrying about. The Bills have been elite at defending tight ends for the last few seasons, and this one is no different. Buffalo has allowed the fewest fantasy points per game and receiving yards per game to tight ends this season.*

ATL vs. NYJ | LAR vs. CAR | NO vs. MIA | SF vs. CLE | HOU vs. IND | JAC vs. TEN | ARI vs. TB | MIN vs. SEA | BUF vs. PIT | LV vs. LAC | DEN vs. WAS | NYG vs. NE

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers

• LAC -9.5, O/U 40.5
• Las Vegas Raiders vs. Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings

Chargers Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Justin Herbert
• Oronde Gadsden III
• Brock Bowers

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Ashton Jeanty (RB)

Ashton Jeanty has been the RB11 in fantasy points per game, sitting at seventh in snap share, fourth in opportunity share, and 12th in red zone touches among running backs. He has averaged 18.5 touches and 75 total yards. Since Week 9, he has ranked sixth among running backs in target share (17.1%), ninth in receiving yards per game (33.8), and ninth in first downs per route run. Among 54 qualifying backs, Jeanty ranks ninth in missed tackle rate and 30th in yards after contact per attempt. Jeanty should have a resurgent week against a hapless Bolts’ run defense. Since Week 8, the Chargers have allowed the seventh-highest rushing success rate, the fourth-highest missed tackle rate, the 11th-highest yards before contact per attempt, and they have had the sixth-lowest stuff rate.

Quentin Johnston  (WR)

Quentin Johnston has had an up-and-down season as the WR30 in fantasy points per game, but this week feels like a bounce-back to more of what we saw from Johnston to open the season. Earlier this season, he faced the Raiders and had 71 receiving yards and a score as the WR23 for the week. Since Week 9, the Raiders have utilized single high at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (63.7%). This season, in the eight games Johnston has played at least 80% of the snaps, against single high, he has had a 21.3% target share (second on the team) with 1.99 yards per route run and a team-leading 25% first-read share. Johnston should feast this week against a secondary that, since Week 8, has allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Ladd McConkey (WR)

Since Week 5, Ladd McConkey has been the WR13 in fantasy points per game. This week, he faces a single-high, heavy Raiders pass defense. Since Week 9, the Raiders have utilized single high at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (63.7%). Since Week 5, against single high, McConkey has led the team with a 22.8% target share and 2.78 yards per route run while ranking second on the team with a 21.6% first-read share. Since Week 8, the Raiders have been strong against slot receivers, allowing the eighth-fewest PPR points per target and the sixth-fewest receiving yards. Playing McConkey is a bet on talent and usage this week. I’m not scared of the Raiders’ pass defense.

Keenan Allen (WR)

After watching Keenan Allen‘s route share dip into the 50s in Weeks 8 & 9, Allen has seen it return to a more usual 60-65.6% across his last two games. Overall, Allen is the WR25 in fantasy points per game, ranking ninth among wide receivers in red zone targets. This week, he faces a single-high, heavy Raiders pass defense. Since Week 9, the Raiders have utilized single high at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (63.7%). Against single high, Allen leads the team with a 21.7% target share while also sporting 1.83 yards per route run and a team-leading 24.5% first-read share. Allen is a strong play again this week after seeing his fantasy stock hurt in previous weeks. Since Week 8, the Raiders have allowed the seventh-most PPR points per target and the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

N/A

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Geno Smith (QB)

I have zero interest in playing Geno Smith this week. None. Nada. Zilch. Smith has been an uneven turnover machine this season, and he’ll be facing a tough pass defense this week. Since Week 8, the Bolts have allowed the fewest passing yards per game, the third-lowest yards per attempt, the second-lowest passer rating, and the eighth-lowest success rate per dropback.

Kimani Vidal (RB)

Omarion Hampton is out this week, which means Kimani Vidal gets at least one more week as the Chargers’ lead back. Since Week 6, he has been the RB21 in fantasy points per game, averaging 17.1 touches and 75 total yards. Among 54 qualifying backs, he ranks tenth in explosive run rate and 29th in yards after contact per attempt. Vidal will need to rely upon volume and touchdown equity this week. The Raiders have continued to field an above-average run defense. Since Week 8, they have allowed the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the second-fewest yards before contact per attempt, and have had the 11th-best stuff rate.

Tre Tucker (WR)

Since the Jakobi Meyers trade, Tre Tucker has been the WR48 in fantasy points per game with an 18.6% target share, 34.3 receiving yards per game, 0.79 yards per route run, and a 22.8% first-read share. In those three games, he has had two red zone targets and eight deep targets. Tucker is a low-end flex play who is best left on the bench this week. Since Week 8, the Bolts have allowed the fifth-fewest PPR points per target and the seventh-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

ATL vs. NYJ | LAR vs. CAR | NO vs. MIA | SF vs. CLE | HOU vs. IND | JAC vs. TEN | ARI vs. TB | MIN vs. SEA | BUF vs. PIT | LV vs. LAC | DEN vs. WAS | NYG vs. NE

Denver Broncos vs. Washington Commanders

• DEN -5.5, O/U 43
• Denver Broncos vs. Washington Commanders Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Broncos Players & Weekly Rankings

Commanders Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

N/A

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Bo Nix (QB)

Bo Nix might be the QB12 in fantasy points per game, but he has been extremely volatile this season. This week should be another boom game for Nix. Adding to his ceiling and floor has surpassed 20 rushing yards in six games while adding three rushing scores this season. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 32nd in yards per attempt, 19th in passing yards per game, 32nd in highly accurate throw rate, and 39th in catchable target rate. Washington has fallen apart as a pass defense. Since Week 8, they have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game, the highest yards per attempt, the second-highest CPOE, and the highest success rate per dropback.

RJ Harvey (RB)

Before the bye, in his first game as Denver’s lead back, Harvey had a 60.7% snap share, a 34.1% route share, and a 7.9% target share. He finished with 14 touches and 50 total yards. In that game, he had three red zone rushing attempts but didn’t convert any into a touchdown. Jaleel McLaughlin had two rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line in that game and converted one into a score. Don’t let that push you away from Harvey. Among 54 qualifying backs, he ranks 35th in explosive run rate and 18th in missed tackle rate. This should be the Harvey breakout game. Since Week 8, Washington has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game, the eighth-highest explosive run rate, the tenth-highest missed tackle rate, and the sixth-most yards after contact per attempt.

Courtland Sutton (WR)

Courtland Sutton is the WR28 in fantasy points per game with an 18.3% target share, 59 receiving yards per game, 1.91 yards per route run, and a 22.7% first-read share. Sutton is second on the Broncos in red zone and deep targets behind Troy Franklin. Sutton has been solid, but he hasn’t finished as a top-24 wide receiver in weekly scoring since Week 7. This is a fantastic bounce-back spot for Sutton. Since Week 8, Washington has allowed the most PPR points per target and the 14th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Troy Franklin (WR)

Troy Franklin is in the midst of a breakout season as the WR31 in fantasy points per game. He has been Denver’s high leverage source of goodness. Among wide receivers, he ranks second in deep targets and fourth in red zone targets (tied). Franklin has a 20.3% target share with 46.3 receiving yards per game, 1.62 yards per route run, and a 23.5% first-read share. Franklin has finished as a top 24 wide receiver in weekly scoring in three of his last four games (WR1, WR23, WR20). He could add to that total this week. Since Week 8, Washington has allowed the most PPR points per target and the 14th-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

N/A

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Marcus Mariota (QB)

In Marcus Mariota‘s five starts this season, he has two QB1 weekly finishes (QB6, QB9). In those games, he has averaged five rushing attempts and 31.8 rushing yards. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, Mariota has ranked ninth in yards per attempt, 21st in highly accurate throw rate, 31st in catchable target rate, and eighth in hero throw rate. This week, he should be on the bench for most fantasy teams. Since Week 8, Denver has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per attempt, the fourth-lowest passer rating, the sixth-lowest CPOE, and the third-lowest success rate per dropback.

Chris Rodriguez (RB)

In the Commanders’ last game, Chris Rodriguez led the backfield with a 45.3% snap rate, a 25% route share, and 15 of the 28 running back carries. He also handled four of the eight running back red zone rushing attempts (Bill, three). Rodriguez finished with 16 touches and 85 total yards. Among 54 qualifying backs, he ranks second in yards after contact per attempt and 34th in explosive run rate. Rodriguez is a touchdown-dependent flex play this week. Since Week 8, Denver has allowed zero explosive runs, the second-fewest rushing yards per game, and the ninth-fewest yards after contact per attempt.

Deebo Samuel (WR)

Deebo Samuel is the WR14 in fantasy points per game with a 24.6% target share, 47 receiving yards per game, 1.75 yards per route run, and a 30.1% first-read share. He leads the team with 11 red zone targets and six deep targets. As good as Samuel has been, his production since Week 6 has taken a hit, with only one top 24 weekly finish since then. The return of Patrick Surtain this week will transform the Denver pass defense back into a single high heavy unit. In Weeks 1-7, with Surtain healthy, Denver utilized single high at the sixth-highest rate (59.2%). They had moved to two high with him out, but I expect them to revert to their single high ways this week. That is horrible news for Samuel. Against single high, he has only a 22.7% target share with 1.26 yards per route run and a 29.1% first-read share. Since Week 8, Denver has limited slot receivers to the ninth-fewest PPR points per target while also ranking 15th in receiving yards per game allowed to the position. Samuel will likely have a tough week.

Terry McLaurin (WR)

Terry McLaurin is set to return this week. I do not want to plug him into a lineup this week, despite knowing that he will be a central figure in how Washington will attack the Denver pass defense. The return of Patrick Surtain this week will transform the Denver pass defense back into a single high heavy unit. In Weeks 1-7, with Surtain healthy, Denver utilized single high at the sixth-highest rate (59.2%). They had moved to two high with him out, but I expect them to revert to their single high ways this week. That is horrible news for Ertz. Against single high, McLaurin has been the team’s go-to with a 24.2% target share, a 44.1% air-yard share, 2.41 yards per route run, and a 39% first-read share. The problem here is that I expect Patrick Surtain to follow him this week. Surtain has followed A.J. Brown, Calvin Ridley, Quentin Johnston, Ja’Marr Chase, Garrett Wilson, and Michael Pittman this season on 56.7-94.7% of their routes, holding all of them to 61 or fewer scoreless receiving yards. Sit McLaurin this week.

Zach Ertz (TE)

Zach Ertz is the TE16 in fantasy points per game with two TE1 weekly finishes this season (none since Week 6). Among tight ends, he ranks eighth in deep targets and 18th in red zone looks. The return of Patrick Surtain this week will transform the Denver pass defense back into a single high heavy unit. In Weeks 1-7, with Surtain healthy, Denver utilized single high at the sixth-highest rate (59.2%). They had moved to two high with him out, but I expect them to revert to their single high ways this week. That is horrible news for Ertz. Against single high, Ertz has had a 15.8% target share with 1.08 yards per route run and an 18.7% first-read share. Denver has given up only four receiving touchdowns to tight ends all season, but they have also allowed the third-highest yards per reception and the 11th-most receiving yards per game to the position. Ertz is off the streaming radar this week.

ATL vs. NYJ | LAR vs. CAR | NO vs. MIA | SF vs. CLE | HOU vs. IND | JAC vs. TEN | ARI vs. TB | MIN vs. SEA | BUF vs. PIT | LV vs. LAC | DEN vs. WAS | NYG vs. NE

New York Giants vs. New England Patriots

• NE -7, O/U 46.5
• New York Giants vs. New England Patriots Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Giants Players & Weekly Rankings

Patriots Players & Weekly Rankings

Must-Start

These are no-brainer MUST starts.

• Drake Maye
• TreVeyon Henderson

Strong Starts

Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB)

Since Week 10, Tyrone Tracy Jr. has been the RB16 in fantasy points per game with 20.4 touches and 113.4 total yards per game. In Week 12, he took over as the team’s goal-line back with five red-zone rushing attempts versus Devin Singletary‘s one. Among 54 qualifying backs, Tracy ranks 49th in missed tackle rate and 33rd in yards after contact per attempt. This week, he faces a Patriots’ run defense that has taken a big step back in recent weeks. Since Week 8, New England has allowed the seventh-highest yards before contact per attempt while ranking 16th in explosive run rate, 15th in missed tackle rate, and having the second-lowest stuff rate. Tracy is a volume-driven RB2.

Wan’Dale Robinson (WR)

Wan’Dale Robinson is having a wonderful season as the WR18 in fantasy points per game. He has a 25.2% target share, 66.2 receiving yards per game, 1.96 yards per route run, and a 30.9% first-read share. In his two games played, he has seven red zone targets and a whopping 15 deep targets. Robinson is on pace for 144 targets, 94 receptions, and 1.124 receiving yards. We really need to put more respect on his name (myself included). Robinson is a strong play again this week. Since Week 8, New England has allowed the 13th-most PPR points per target and the ninth-highest passer rating when targeted to slot receivers.

Theo Johnson (TE)

Since Week 4, Theo Johnson has been the TE12 in fantasy points per game with a 17.9% target share, 42 receiving yards per game, 1.50 yards per route run, and a 21% first-read share. In those nine games, he has had nine red zone targets, three deep targets, and five touchdowns. Johnson will flirt with TE1 production again this week. New England has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game and the tenth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.

Fantasy Football Flex & Deep Plays to Consider

Let’s fill out those flex spots.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)

Last week, Rhamondre Stevenson played only 31% of the snaps with seven touches and ten total yards. Three of those seven touches were carries inside the red zone. Stevenson is a touchdown-dependent flex play this week that will burn you if he doesn’t score, but the matchup is VERY nice on the ground. Among 54 qualifying backs, Stevenson ranks eighth in missed tackle rate and 35th in yards after contact per attempt. Since Week 8, the Giants have allowed the most rushing yards per game, the highest explosive run rate, the second-highest missed tackle rate, and the highest yards after contact per attempt.

Stefon Diggs (WR)

Last week, Stefon Diggs route share dipped to 51.3% with an 8.6% target share and an 11.1% first-read share. This is the first time that his route share has dipped below 61% since Week 3. Diggs route share has fluttered between 61.1-89.2% since Week 5, so last week’s dip was unexpected. Overall, Diggs is the WR29 in fantasy points per game, ranking 17th in among wide receivers in red zone targets. He has a 20.7% target share with 56.6 receiving yards per game, 2.37 yards per route run, and a 22.7% first-read share. Because of his playing time yo-yoing, Diggs is a more volatile play that he should be. He’s still a solid play this week. Since Week 8, New York has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Kayshon Boutte (WR)

Last week, Boutte returned to the huddle and had a 76.9% route share, but he didn’t have much to show for it with only a 5.7% target share, 15 receiving yards, and a 5.6% first-read share. Boutte is the WR42 in fantasy points per game with four top-24 weekly finishes this season. He has run incredibly hot with touchdowns with five despite only seeing one red zone target. Overall, he has an 11% target share with 44.6 receiving yards per game, 1.81 yards per route run, and a 13.4% first-read share. He has operated as the team’s field stretcher with nine deep targets, which amounts to 28.1% of his target volume this season. Boutte is a high upside but low floor flex option weekly. This week is a good one to consider flexing him. The Giants have allowed the seventh-highest deep completion rate, the fourth-most deep passing yards per game, and the seventh-highest passer rating to deep passing. Since Week 8, New York has allowed the sixth-most PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.

Concerning Starts & Players to Fade

Players in consideration for lineups, but temper your expectations this week.

Jaxson Dart (QB)

Since Week 4, Jaxson Dart has been the QB2 in fantasy points per game while contributing a ton with his legs. Since Week 4, he has averaged 7.9 rushing attempts per game with 45.3 rushing yards and seven rushing scores. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks 24th in yards per attempt, 27th in highly accurate throw rate, 16th in catchable target rate, and seventh in hero throw rate. He’ll need all the rushing production he can get this week. Since Week 8, New England has fielded a shutdown pass defense, giving up the fewest yards per attempt, the fifth-lowest CPOE, and the sixth-lowest success rate per dropback.

Darius Slayton (WR)

Since Week 5, Slayton has been the WR69 with two top-36 weekly finishes. He has had a 14.1% target share with 46.2 receiving yards per game, 1.80 yards per route run, and a 17.8% first-read share. In those five games, he has only one red zone target and seven deep targets. Christian Gonzalez may shadow him, but I lean that it probably doesn’t happen. I don’t see New England believing that they have to commit their top corner to shadow coverage to take Slayton out of the game plan, but we’ll see. I could be wrong. Since Week 8, Gonzalez has followed Emeka Egbuka, Jerry Jeudy, and Tee Higgins on 61.3-78% of their routes, holding them to 56 or fewer scoreless receiving yards in his coverage. Slayton is a sit this week. Since Week 8, New England has allowed the ninth-fewest PPR points per target and the tenth-fewest receiving yards per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Hunter Henry (TE)

Hunter Henry is the TE13 in fantasy points per game after demolishing the Bengals last week as the TE1 for the week. Outside of that performance, Henry’s last TE1 outing was in Week 4. Henry has a 16.8% target share with 44.8 receiving yards per game, 1.68 yards per route run, and a 19.3% first-read share. Henry has 12 red zone targets and five deep targets this season. Henry is best left on the bench this week. The Giants have held tight ends to the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game and the tenth-fewest fantasy points per game.

ATL vs. NYJ | LAR vs. CAR | NO vs. MIA | SF vs. CLE | HOU vs. IND | JAC vs. TEN | ARI vs. TB | MIN vs. SEA | BUF vs. PIT | LV vs. LAC | DEN vs. WAS | NYG vs. NE

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*All data utilized in this article is courtesy of Fantasy Points Data, PFF, FTN, rbsdm.com, and Playerprofiler.com unless otherwise specified.*