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Who Should I Draft?

Carlos Carrasco or James Paxton (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  James Paxton
SP - SEA
James Paxton
Carlos Carrasco
SP,RP - NYM
Carlos Carrasco
Expert
Recommendation
51%
Recommended by
26 of 51 experts
49%
Recommended by
25 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 62# 58
Best Rank# 36# 16
Worst Rank# 99# 183
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 204# 116
Best Rank# 182# 96
Worst Rank# 216# 179
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts145147
Wins89
Saves00
ERA4.053.48
WHIP1.221.13
   
Misc 
   
Injury AlertIL60-
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 60# 79
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 71# 77
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 56# 67
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 86# 137
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 52# 183
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 56# 70
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 36
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 61# 93
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 62# 68
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 44# 63
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 71# 96
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 63# 107
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 69# 84
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 61# 81
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 46# 76
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 91# 166
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 38# 57
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 82# 99
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 63# 65
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 51# 62
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 44# 48
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 46# 59
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 53# 56
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 70# 74
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 77# 119
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 77# 80
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 67# 16
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 73# 19
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 67# 25
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 81# 26
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 80# 26
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 93# 28
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 73# 28
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 84# 29
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 93# 30
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 69# 32
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 47# 35
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 49# 36
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 64# 41
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 55# 42
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 66# 47
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 58# 48
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 78# 52
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 68# 55
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 63# 56
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 86# 56
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 73# 59
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 64# 62
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 67# 65
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 99# 70
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 92# 70
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  James Paxton
SP - SEA
James Paxton
Carlos Carrasco
SP,RP - NYM
Carlos Carrasco
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played512
   
Games Started512
   
Innings Pitched20.268.2
   
Wins13
   
Losses14
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed2355
   
Earned Runs1522
   
Home Runs Allowed48
   
Strikeouts2682
   
Walks727
   
ERA6.642.91
   
WHIP1.481.21
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  James Paxton
SP - SEA
James Paxton
Carlos Carrasco
SP,RP - NYM
Carlos Carrasco
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2422
   
Games Started2421
   
Innings Pitched125.3125.4
   
Wins89
   
Losses76
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed113107
   
Earned Runs5649
   
Home Runs Allowed1917
   
Strikeouts145147
   
Walks4034
   
ERA4.053.48
   
WHIP1.221.13
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  James Paxton
SP - SEA
James Paxton
Carlos Carrasco
SP,RP - NYM
Carlos Carrasco
News 
 James Paxton underwent Tommy John surgery within this past week.
Brenden Trout
Thu, Apr 29th
Carlos Carrasco allowed four runs (one earned) on seven hits, one walk, and four strikeouts in five innings. The 34-year-old was forced to work much harder than he should have been by the Mets' sloppy fielding. They won 9-4 Tuesday and are four games behind the Braves in the NL East and three and a half games behind the Reds and Padres for the final Wild Card spot.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Wed, Sep 8th
 Mariners manager Scott Servais confirmed that James Paxton will have season-ending surgery on his elbow.
Dan Harris
Tue, Apr 13th
Carlos Carrasco allowed three runs on four hits, one walk, and five strikeouts in five and one-third innings. The Mets won 4-3 Tuesday and are winners of four straight. They're 66-67 this season.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Fri, Sep 3rd
 Tommy John surgery has been recommended for James Paxton, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
Matt Flipi
Thu, Apr 8th
Carlos Carrasco allowed two runs on three hits, zero walks, and five strikeouts in seven innings pitched. He left the game tied, and the Mets blew the game in the eighth inning, losing 3-2. They're 61-66 this season.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Fri, Aug 27th
 Seattle Mariners LHP James Paxton, who's currently on the 10-day IL with a left forearm strain, is seeking a second opinion on his recent MRI results.
Jon Mathisen
Thu, Apr 8th
Carlos Carrasco allowed three runs on five hits, one walk, and six strikeouts in five innings. The Mets lost 3-2 and are now 60-62 this season.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Sat, Aug 21st
 The Mariners placed James Paxton on the 10-day IL on Wednesday with a left forearm strain.
Dan Harris
Wed, Apr 7th
Carlos Carrasco allowed six runs on six hits, one walk, and three strikeouts in two innings.
Lucas Babits-Feinerman
Mon, Aug 16th
Notes 
 Paxton missed almost the entire 2020 season after straining a flexor in his pitching forearm. Any forearm injury is worrisome because of the connection to the elbow, and Paxton has hardly been the picture of health in his career. He'll try to jumpstart his career again back with the Mariners, and the reports from his workout, where he reportedly touched 94 MPH, were encouraging after his velocity drop last year. When he pitches, he's almost always effective, so he's worth a late-round pick for the potential upside. But the injury history should keep him relatively low on your draft board.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Carrasco suffered a serious hamstring strain in mid-March which is likely to keep him out 6-8 weeks. It's a devastating blow to the veteran who returned strong from his battle with leukemia in 2019 to post a 2.91 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 2020. There was plenty to like about Carrasco in New York, including that the Mets will provide him with a better chance at wins, their infield defense should be above average, and Carrasco will play in a more favorable park. But at this point, he's nothing more than a bench starter for your fantasy team given his injury.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
  We can completely write off Carrasco's 2019 season as the right-hander was going through a battle with leukemia. The 33-year-old heroically bounced back last summer, posting a 2.91 ERA to go along with a 1.21 WHIP and 82 strikeouts in 64 innings. A 9.6% walk rate is mildly concerning, but Carrasco misses enough bats that he should still be viewed as a reliable SP2/3. The perception around him seems to be that he isn't durable, but Carrasco started 30 games three times from 2015-18.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros