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Who Should I Draft?

Ketel Marte or Adalberto Mondesi (2020)

Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Ketel Marte
2B,SS,OF - ARI
Ketel Marte
Adalberto Mondesi
SS - KC
Adalberto Mondesi
Expert
Recommendation
56%
Recommended by
25 of 45 experts
44%
Recommended by
20 of 45 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 31# 30
Best Rank# 20# 7
Worst Rank# 79# 118
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 40# 43
Best Rank# 34# 36
Worst Rank# 44# 93
   
Projections 
   
Runs3327
Home Runs96
RBI3026
Stolen Bases317
Batting Average.301.256
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 37# 40
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 29# 34
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 34# 35
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 25# 35
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 26# 32
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 38# 46
   
Chet Gresham
The Fake Baseball
# 30# 31
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 30# 41
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 29# 44
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 26# 33
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 26# 51
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 36# 118
   
Mark Ross
Athlon Sports
# 30# 32
   
Matt Brandon
Matt Brandon
# 20# 30
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 27# 34
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 28# 39
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 22# 27
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 33# 40
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 22# 36
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 36# 50
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 25# 26
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 54# 75
   
George Kurtz
FantasyData
# 33# 79
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 28# 31
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 23# 45
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 28# 24
   
Sean Zerillo
The Action Network
# 29# 23
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 30# 26
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 30# 19
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 30# 29
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 32# 14
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 32# 23
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 33# 19
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 34# 26
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 38# 21
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 38# 34
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 38# 12
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 39# 27
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 41# 24
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 42# 21
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 45# 25
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 46# 7
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 65# 15
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 75# 73
   
Chris Mitchell
FantasyData
# 79# 26
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Ketel Marte
2B,SS,OF - ARI
Ketel Marte
Adalberto Mondesi
SS - KC
Adalberto Mondesi
2019 Stats 
   
   
At Bats569416
   
Runs9758
   
Hits187110
   
Singles11071
   
Doubles3620
   
Triples910
   
Home Runs329
   
RBI9262
   
Stolen Bases1043
   
Caught Stealing27
   
Walks5319
   
Strikeouts86132
   
Batting Average.329.264
   
On Base Pct.389.293
   
Slugging Pct.592.426
   
On-base Plus Slugging.981.718
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Ketel Marte
2B,SS,OF - ARI
Ketel Marte
Adalberto Mondesi
SS - KC
Adalberto Mondesi
2020 Projections 
   
   
At Bats210197
   
Runs3327
   
Hits6350
   
Singles3831
   
Doubles1310
   
Triples33
   
Home Runs96
   
RBI3026
   
Stolen Bases317
   
Caught Stealing14
   
Walks2010
   
Strikeouts3360
   
Batting Average.301.256
   
On Base Pct.362.291
   
Slugging Pct.513.434
   
On-base Plus Slugging.875.725
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Ketel Marte
2B,SS,OF - ARI
Ketel Marte
Adalberto Mondesi
SS - KC
Adalberto Mondesi
News 
  Royals manager Mike Matheny says Adalberto Mondesi (shoulder) "looks good" in the workout videos he has seen of him.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Jun 27th
  Adalberto Mondesi told reporters that he "feels great" and is on track to play Opening Day for the Royals.
Blaine Blontz
Thu, Feb 20th
Notes 
 With second base being as weak as it is, it's kind of shocking that Ketel Marte is going this low in drafts. Sure, the breakout was out of nowhere - despite being a popular breakout pick for three years in a row - but he actually was stronger down the stretch than he was in the first half, and there are very few concerns with his underlying numbers. A change to the baseball could see his home runs come down, but not enough so that he won't return draft-day value.
Michael Waterloo - FantasyPros
Bold prediction time: Mondesi won't be a thing in 2021. Mondesi showed last year that he wasn't worth grabbing in the first three to four rounds of your draft, yet here we are again, with Mondesi going off the board 40th overall per FantasyPros' ADP. He's not a complete zero at power, but you're drafting him for speed only, essentially. If you look at his xwOBA (6th percentile), xSLG (16th percentile), and xBA (14th percentile) and pair that with his 29.8 K% and 4.3 BB% (both bottom 6 percent of baseball), what's to like? Oh, that's not to mention that he's recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. Unless you're in a big tournament-style league where you need to look for the splash play, avoid Mondesi this year and find your steals elsewhere where you don't have to make quite the investment.
Michael Waterloo - FantasyPros
 Marte suddenly went from being a career .263 hitter with 22 home runs in 1,548 plate appearances to batting .329 with 32 home runs in 628 plate appearances. And while he made many overall gains, such as a massive increase in launch angle, his expected batting average was just .299 and that .030 difference was 10th-highest in MLB. He also upped his pull percentage by a significant amount, and pulled all but one of his home runs, which should be something that pitchers can exploit in 2020. Buy some of the gains, but consider Marte closer to a .290-25 type of hitter.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Mondesi had a ridiculous 43 steals last year but he did it in just 416 at-bats. If he can stay on the field for a full season, 60 is not only a possibility, but likely. Add in 15 homers and we are talking about a potential first round value, albeit one with great risk.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 There is no one who will deny the likelihood that Marte's .329 batting average drops this year but we are still talking about a kid who hit 32 homers with 10 steals last year. As we've seen with Jose Ramirez and J.D. Martinez, these breakout stars can sometimes even further improve.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 
 In the Era of the Juiced ball (and I am sure some juiced bodies too) I am not buying Marte's 2019 power surge and he doesn't run as much as you might think he does. I am not paying for 30 home runs and 10 stolen bases when regression suggests 15-20 HRs and five SBs. Marte won't fall this far and I am fine with that. I will be owning ZERO shares of the 2019 shocker of the year in Fantasy baseball.
Chris Mitchell - FantasyData
 
 Marte earned every bit of his 32 HRs last year. His average is almost certain to come down a bit, but his breakout was real, and similar numbers are certainly not out of reach. He is being discounted out of fear for massive regression. I am happy to take the discount.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy