Who Should I Draft?

Luis Castillo or Chris Archer (2019)

 
Experts' Pick
 
  Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Chris Archer
SP - PIT
Chris Archer
Expert
Recommendation
61%
Recommended by
34 of 56 experts
39%
Recommended by
22 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 41# 43
Best Rank# 22# 13
Worst Rank# 78# 78
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 128# 124
Best Rank# 114# 96
Worst Rank# 846# 128
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts169198
Wins1111
Saves00
ERA3.863.77
WHIP1.221.26
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Brandon Funston
The Athletic
# 38# 63
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 44# 50
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 39# 60
   
Michael Beller
Sports Illustrated
# 22# 60
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 34# 35
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 40# 43
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 30# 32
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 45# 50
   
Eno Sarris
The Athletic
# 44# 47
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 46# 62
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 38# 41
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 35# 53
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 34# 58
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 35# 43
   
Chris Meaney
The Athletic
# 33# 40
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 59# 75
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 35# 78
   
Chris Meyers
Athlon Sports
# 40# 42
   
Paul Sporer
FanGraphs
# 38# 39
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 39# 64
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 41# 59
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 44# 52
   
Justin Mason
FanGraphs
# 33# 43
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 37# 43
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 39# 44
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 42# 48
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 39# 49
   
Brandon 'B_Don' Myers
Razzball
# 25# 36
   
Jacob Gibbs
SportsLine
# 37# 43
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 54# 57
   
Joe E Gentile
Fake Teams
# 28# 54
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 28# 47
   
Austin Bristow II
Pitcher List
# 39# 61
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 39# 47
   
Al Melchior
The Athletic
# 30# 24
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 38# 35
   
Heath Cummings
CBS Sports
# 38# 27
   
Nando Di Fino
The Athletic
# 41# 13
   
Kyle Richardson
The Fantasy Headliners
# 41# 34
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 42# 41
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 42# 25
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 44# 20
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 45# 22
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 46# 45
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 46# 40
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 48# 27
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 53# 29
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 54# 41
   
Justin Klein
The Fake Baseball
# 54# 43
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 56# 45
   
Brad Richter
Going For 2
# 56# 54
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 60# 37
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 61# 23
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 66# 52
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 67# 43
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 78# 56
   
  Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Chris Archer
SP - PIT
Chris Archer
2018 Stats 
   
   
Games Played3127
   
Games Started3127
   
Innings Pitched170.2148.1
   
Wins106
   
Losses128
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed158155
   
Earned Runs8171
   
Home Runs Allowed2819
   
Strikeouts165162
   
Walks4949
   
ERA4.304.31
   
WHIP1.221.38
   
  Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Chris Archer
SP - PIT
Chris Archer
2019 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3031
   
Games Started3031
   
Innings Pitched169.9179.7
   
Wins1111
   
Losses1010
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed156169
   
Earned Runs7375
   
Home Runs Allowed2422
   
Strikeouts169198
   
Walks5258
   
ERA3.863.77
   
WHIP1.221.26
   
  Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Chris Archer
SP - PIT
Chris Archer
News 
 Luis Castillo allowed four runs on five hits and five walks over 3 2/3 innings on Saturday against the Brewers. He struck out six and took the loss.
Dan Harris
Mon, Jun 24th
Chris Archer allowed one run on two hits and three walks over five innings on Saturday against the Padres. He struck out five and did not factor into the decision.
Dan Harris
Mon, Jun 24th
 Luis Castillo allowed two runs on two hits over six innings in the Reds' 3-2 win over the Astros on Monday. He walked six and struck out seven while improving to 7-1.
Elliott Baas
Mon, Jun 17th
Chris Archer allowed four runs on seven hits over five innings in the Pirates' 5-4 win over the Marlins on Sunday. He walked three and struck out eight in the no-decision.
Elliott Baas
Sun, Jun 16th
 Luis Castillo allowed one run on four hits over six innings in the Reds' 2-1 extra innings loss to the Indians on Tuesday. He walked two and struck out six in the no-decision.
Elliott Baas
Wed, Jun 12th
Chris Archer allowed seven runs on six hits over six innings in the Pirates' 7-5 loss to the Braves on Tuesday. He walked two and struck out eight while falling to 3-6.
Elliott Baas
Wed, Jun 12th
 Luis Castillo allowed (three runs) two earned on six hits over 5 1/3 innings in the Reds' 8-5 loss to the Pirates on Sunday. He walked four and struck out four in the no decision.
Elliott Baas
Tue, May 28th
Chris Archer allowed one run on six hits over six innings in the Pirates' 6-1 win over the Braves on Thursday. He walked two and struck out six while improving to 3-5.
Elliott Baas
Thu, Jun 6th
 Luis Castillo allowed four runs on five hits over 2.2 innings in the Reds' 11-9 loss to the Brewers on Wednesday. He walked three and struck out two in the no decision.
Elliott Baas
Thu, May 23rd
Chris Archer allowed four runs on five hits over seven innings in the Pirates' 9-4 win over the Brewers on Friday. He walked two and struck out seven while improving to 2-5.
Elliott Baas
Sat, Jun 1st
Notes 
 Castillo quickly became a darling of the analytics community last season but failed to meet the expectations of those who reached for him in fantasy. He is still plenty young and talented, however, so don't give up on him less the breakout comes a year later than everyone planned for.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
Archer has proven to be a pitcher who consistently posts a higher ERA than his advanced metrics suggest he deserves. At this point, we should no longer be expecting that to suddenly change. Until we see otherwise, expect Archer to post an ERA around 4.00, a WHIP in the 1.20s, and a fairly strong strikeout rate.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
 Castillo was a trendy breakout pick last season, but instead his strikeout rate fell and he was victimized by the home run ball. However, just as many fantasy managers' attention turned to football, Castillo dominated his way through September, delivering a 1.09 ERA and 0.85 WHIP over the season's final month. In other words, there is plenty of post-hype sleeper appeal here as long as his draft price remains reasonable.
Andrew Seifter - FantasyPros
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, well, look at all those strikeouts. Fool me three times … but his FIP is still lower. Even though he missed over a month with an abdominal strain last year, Archer has amassed the sixth-most strikeouts (644) over the last three seasons. He has collected a 3.64 FIP and 3.54 SIERA during that span. His ERA also ballooned above 4.00 each year. How many times can we keep putting our hand on the hot stove? Archer's fastball has ceded a slugging percentage above .500 in each campaign, so he wields no other effective pitch beyond his slider. He's an elite source of strikeouts, but don't expect a positive ERA contribution.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros
 One of last spring's top breakout candidates, Castillo posted an underwhelming 4.30 ERA. This year's version of Castillo is … still Castillo. While he started strong, the hard-throwing righty belatedly met the hype with a 2.44 ERA, 69 strikeouts, and 14 walks in 66.1 second-half frames. A 13.5% swinging-strike rate points to elite strikeout potential, so there's still an ace looming if he can curtail last year's home-run woes. While this could be a case of doubling down on the same mistake, Castillo is once a desirable high-upside SP3 target.
Andrew Gould - FantasyPros