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Who Should I Draft?

Luis Castillo or Kenta Maeda (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
Expert
Recommendation
92%
Recommended by
47 of 51 experts
8%
Recommended by
4 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 11# 16
Best Rank# 6# 5
Worst Rank# 17# 36
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 27# 47
Best Rank# 24# 45
Worst Rank# 38# 61
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts216177
Wins1312
Saves00
ERA3.523.83
WHIP1.181.13
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert-IL60
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 8# 17
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 12# 15
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 8# 17
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 14# 16
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 11# 15
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 14# 22
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 12# 17
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 12# 28
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 15# 34
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 7# 22
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 12# 33
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 11# 17
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 10# 15
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 11# 18
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 8# 23
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 11# 15
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 12# 36
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 10# 20
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 11# 16
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 11# 22
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 12# 16
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 10# 20
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 13# 14
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 8# 14
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 14# 16
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 8# 15
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 11# 18
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 11# 15
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 7# 15
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 10# 24
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 6# 15
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 11# 19
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 9# 15
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 10# 16
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 8# 21
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 9# 26
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 17# 22
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 13# 16
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 7# 13
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 9# 17
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 13# 16
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 8# 15
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 13# 19
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 10# 16
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 6# 16
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 8# 15
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 13# 23
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 12# 11
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 14# 10
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 14# 13
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 15# 5
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played1211
   
Games Started1211
   
Innings Pitched70.167.1
   
Wins46
   
Losses61
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed6240
   
Earned Runs2620
   
Home Runs Allowed59
   
Strikeouts8980
   
Walks2410
   
ERA3.342.70
   
WHIP1.230.75
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played3130
   
Games Started3129
   
Innings Pitched183.9160.7
   
Wins1312
   
Losses98
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed154136
   
Earned Runs7268
   
Home Runs Allowed2123
   
Strikeouts216177
   
Walks6346
   
ERA3.523.83
   
WHIP1.181.13
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Luis Castillo
SP - CIN
Luis Castillo
Kenta Maeda
SP,RP - MIN
Kenta Maeda
News 
 Luis Castillo (8-16) took the loss Thursday against the Nationals, allowing two runs on three hits across six innings. He walked three and struck out six.
Connor Rooney
Thu, Sep 23rd
Kenta Maeda is set to undergo season-ending surgery on Wednesday, according to Twins manager Rocco Baldelli.
Ari Koslow
Fri, Aug 27th
 Luis Castillo (8-15) earned the win Friday against the Dodgers, tossing six shutout innings while allowing five hits and two walks. He struck out 10.
Connor Rooney
Fri, Sep 17th
Twins' SP Kenta Maeda is seeking second opinions on his forearm injury, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network.
Jack Mannis
Tue, Aug 24th
 Luis Castillo did not factor into the decision in Saturday's loss to the Cardinals, allowing four runs on eight hits across seven innings. He walked one and struck out five.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 11th
Kenta Maeda was placed on the 10-day IL due to forearm tightness. It is unclear when he will be back.
Kamran Hoda
Mon, Aug 23rd
 Luis Castillo (7-15) was saddled with his league-leading 15th loss Sunday against the Tigers, allowing three runs (one earned) on four hits in six innings. He walked two and struck out seven.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 5th
Kenta Maeda exited Saturday’s start against the Yankees with forearm tightness.
Chris Schommer
Sat, Aug 21st
 Luis Castillo (7-14) took the loss Monday against the Cardinals, allowing three runs on five hits across six innings. He walked two and struck out eight.
Connor Rooney
Mon, Aug 30th
The Twins are pushing Kenta Maeda's next start back to Saturday against the Yankees.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Wed, Aug 18th
Notes 
 Castillo turned in another excellent season last year, cutting his walk rate and striking out batters at a higher rate than he ever had in his career. His WHIP increased to a career-worst 1.23, but that was largely due to bad luck, as batters hit .232 against him despite an expected batting average of just .212. Nevertheless, Castillo kept runs off the board, largely because he was able to avoid home runs (just five in 70 innings) and limit free passes. Castillo is capable of fronting a fantasy pitching staff, though he's more of a low-end ace, and there are plenty of trade rumors following him around. But, given his reliable production and increased strikeout rate the past two seasons, he can be drafted with confidence.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Fantasy managers rejoiced when Maeda was traded from the Dodgers to the Twins, but he surpassed even the loftiest of expectations. In the short season, Maeda went 6-1 with a 2.70 ERA, a 0.73 WHIP, and a 32.3% strikeout rate. In addition to simply being let loose with his innings, Maeda made a tangible change to his pitch mix, throwing far fewer fastball and more sliders and changeups (though his fastball was as effective as it had ever been last year, too). Maeda surely won't be able to repeat his numbers from 2020, as he allowed just a .208 BABIP, had an 80.2% LOB rate, and benefited from being able to feast on solely the NL and AL Central lineups. But even with some regression, he should still be a rock solid SP2, and should be drafted as such.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
  In 2020 Maeda joined Jacob deGrom and Shane Bieber as the only three starters to finish top-five in both xFIP and xERA. It was a dominant campaign as his new team, the Twins, finally unleashed him in a way the Dodgers never did. Maeda also finished top-five in swinging strike rate last summer. He admittedly faced the easiest "hub" against AL/NL Central foes, but a large number of his 2021 starts will come against similar opponents. There's still profit to be had with his current ADP.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros