Who Should I Draft?
Manny Machado or Bryce Harper (2021)
Experts' Pick | ||
| Bryce Harper RF,DH - PHI  | Manny Machado 3B,SS - SD  | |
Expert |
80% Recommended by 16 of 20 experts |
20% Recommended by 4 of 20 experts |
| Rankings | ||
| ECR | # 12 | # 14 |
| Best Rank | # 10 | # 11 |
| Worst Rank | # 42 | # 21 |
| ADP | ||
| Composite | # 18 | # 20 |
| Best Rank | # 17 | # 16 |
| Worst Rank | # 20 | # 22 |
| Projections | ||
| Runs | 104 | 93 |
| Home Runs | 36 | 35 |
| RBI | 104 | 105 |
| Stolen Bases | 15 | 10 |
| Batting Average | .266 | .277 |
| Misc | ||
| Injury Alert | - | - |
| Expert Ranks | ||
| Andy Behrens Yahoo! Sports | # 12 | # 14 |
| Site Projections RotoChamp | # 15 | # 21 |
| Jeff Boggis Fantasy Football Empire | # 12 | # 14 |
| Andrew Gould FantasyPros | # 13 | # 14 |
| Jake Ciely The Athletic | # 12 | # 20 |
| Joe Bond Fantasy Six Pack | # 12 | # 13 |
| Heath Capps Fake Teams | # 13 | # 14 |
| Nick Pollack Pitcher List | # 13 | # 15 |
| Nick Mariano RotoBaller | # 12 | # 14 |
| Mike Maher FantasyPros | # 10 | # 19 |
| Dan Harris FantasyPros | # 11 | # 14 |
| Ariel Cohen FanGraphs | # 10 | # 13 |
| Brendan Tuma FantasyPros | # 11 | # 18 |
| Carmen Maiorano FantasyPros | # 16 | # 21 |
| Brad Camara FantasyPros | # 12 | # 13 |
| Joe Pisapia FantasyPros | # 12 | # 14 |
| Nate Miller FantasyPros | # 12 | # 11 |
| Scott Pianowski Yahoo! Sports | # 14 | # 11 |
| Pierre Camus RotoBaller | # 14 | # 12 |
| Dalton Del Don Yahoo! Sports | # 42 | # 13 |
| Bryce Harper RF,DH - PHI | Manny Machado 3B,SS - SD | |
| 2020 Stats | ||
| At Bats | 190 | 224 |
| Runs | 41 | 44 |
| Hits | 51 | 68 |
| Singles | 27 | 39 |
| Doubles | 9 | 12 |
| Triples | 2 | 1 |
| Home Runs | 13 | 16 |
| RBI | 33 | 47 |
| Stolen Bases | 8 | 6 |
| Caught Stealing | 2 | 3 |
| Walks | 49 | 26 |
| Strikeouts | 43 | 37 |
| Batting Average | .268 | .304 |
| On Base Pct | .420 | .370 |
| Slugging Pct | .542 | .580 |
| On-base Plus Slugging | .962 | .950 |
| Bryce Harper RF,DH - PHI | Manny Machado 3B,SS - SD | |
| 2021 Projections | ||
| At Bats | 543 | 591 |
| Runs | 104 | 93 |
| Hits | 142 | 162 |
| Singles | 74 | 96 |
| Doubles | 29 | 29 |
| Triples | 2 | 2 |
| Home Runs | 36 | 35 |
| RBI | 104 | 105 |
| Stolen Bases | 15 | 10 |
| Caught Stealing | 4 | 4 |
| Walks | 113 | 66 |
| Strikeouts | 157 | 113 |
| Batting Average | .266 | .277 |
| On Base Pct | .388 | .346 |
| Slugging Pct | .522 | .508 |
| On-base Plus Slugging | .911 | .854 |
| Bryce Harper RF,DH - PHI | Manny Machado 3B,SS - SD | |
| News | ||
| Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper says he feels no pain this spring after fighting through a back injury in 2020. Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma Tue, Feb 23rd | ||
| Notes | ||
| In 157 games in Harper's first year with the Phillies, he batted .260 with 35 home runs, 98 runs, 114 RBI, and 15 steals. In 2020, his 157-game pace was .268 with 35 home runs, 111 runs, 89 RBI, and 21 steals. In other words, Harper provides an incredibly safe baseline now with Philadelphia, and fantasy managers can expect roughly 35 home runs, 15-20 steals, and 220 combined runs and RBI. There were some gains for Harper in 2020, as he walked more and struck out less than he ever had in his career, and hit the ball as hard as ever. But there's no reason to expect much growth in Harper's surface numbers at this point. Take the incredibly high floor in the second round and be happy with it. Dan Harris - FantasyPros | Machado was on pace to set career highs in most statistical categories other than steals after last year's 60-game season. He set career bests in strikeout and walk rates and, most importantly to fantasy managers, batting average, where he checked in at .304. Machado's batting average was earned (he had an identica .304 xBA), and came on the back of him cutting his ground ball rate to a career low 37.2% and his line drive rate to a career high 22%. Machado is still just entering his age-29 season, and will continue to bat in a loaded lineup. Expect some regression from his batting average, but all his other stellar numbers should remain on par, meaning it will be another outstanding season that is worth a second-round pick. Dan Harris - FantasyPros | |
| Harper's 2020 Statcast data wound up being better than his 2015 unanimous MVP campaign. The 28-year-old has become somewhat of a saber-metric darling as his batting average, RBIs, and runs don't also jump off the page. Of course, those stats are pretty relevant for fantasy purposes. While Harper has been running more since his arrival to Philadelphia (15 steals in '19 and eight stolen bases last summer), he just isn't as valuable in traditional 5x5 roto as he is in points leagues or category leagues that utilize OBP. The Statcast data is STRONG, however, and public perception hasn't seem to catch on just yet. Harper is going to be an early-round target of mine, particularly in points and OBP leagues. Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros | Machado rode a career-year all the way to a third place finish in the National League MVP voting last summer. He proved to be a massive bargain in fantasy drafts following a disappointing 2019 campaign. Perhaps we never should've overreacted to his first year in San Diego, as Machado remains a tremendous talent. The issue with drafting him in 2021 is that we're paying a premium now. He'll need to produce at a similar rate as last year to pay off his aggressive ADP. Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros | |
