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Who Should I Draft?

Manny Machado or Bryce Harper (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Bryce Harper
RF,DH - PHI
Bryce Harper
Manny Machado
3B,SS - SD
Manny Machado
Expert
Recommendation
80%
Recommended by
16 of 20 experts
20%
Recommended by
4 of 20 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 12# 14
Best Rank# 10# 11
Worst Rank# 42# 21
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 18# 20
Best Rank# 17# 16
Worst Rank# 20# 22
   
Projections 
   
Runs10493
Home Runs3635
RBI104105
Stolen Bases1510
Batting Average.266.277
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 12# 14
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 15# 21
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 12# 14
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 13# 14
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 12# 20
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 12# 13
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 13# 14
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 13# 15
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 12# 14
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 10# 19
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 11# 14
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 10# 13
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 11# 18
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 16# 21
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 12# 13
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 12# 14
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 12# 11
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 14# 11
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 14# 12
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 42# 13
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Bryce Harper
RF,DH - PHI
Bryce Harper
Manny Machado
3B,SS - SD
Manny Machado
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats190224
   
Runs4144
   
Hits5168
   
Singles2739
   
Doubles912
   
Triples21
   
Home Runs1316
   
RBI3347
   
Stolen Bases86
   
Caught Stealing23
   
Walks4926
   
Strikeouts4337
   
Batting Average.268.304
   
On Base Pct.420.370
   
Slugging Pct.542.580
   
On-base Plus Slugging.962.950
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Bryce Harper
RF,DH - PHI
Bryce Harper
Manny Machado
3B,SS - SD
Manny Machado
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats543591
   
Runs10493
   
Hits142162
   
Singles7496
   
Doubles2929
   
Triples22
   
Home Runs3635
   
RBI104105
   
Stolen Bases1510
   
Caught Stealing44
   
Walks11366
   
Strikeouts157113
   
Batting Average.266.277
   
On Base Pct.388.346
   
Slugging Pct.522.508
   
On-base Plus Slugging.911.854
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Bryce Harper
RF,DH - PHI
Bryce Harper
Manny Machado
3B,SS - SD
Manny Machado
News 
 Phillies outfielder Bryce Harper says he feels no pain this spring after fighting through a back injury in 2020.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Tue, Feb 23rd
 
Notes 
 In 157 games in Harper's first year with the Phillies, he batted .260 with 35 home runs, 98 runs, 114 RBI, and 15 steals. In 2020, his 157-game pace was .268 with 35 home runs, 111 runs, 89 RBI, and 21 steals. In other words, Harper provides an incredibly safe baseline now with Philadelphia, and fantasy managers can expect roughly 35 home runs, 15-20 steals, and 220 combined runs and RBI. There were some gains for Harper in 2020, as he walked more and struck out less than he ever had in his career, and hit the ball as hard as ever. But there's no reason to expect much growth in Harper's surface numbers at this point. Take the incredibly high floor in the second round and be happy with it.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Machado was on pace to set career highs in most statistical categories other than steals after last year's 60-game season. He set career bests in strikeout and walk rates and, most importantly to fantasy managers, batting average, where he checked in at .304. Machado's batting average was earned (he had an identica .304 xBA), and came on the back of him cutting his ground ball rate to a career low 37.2% and his line drive rate to a career high 22%. Machado is still just entering his age-29 season, and will continue to bat in a loaded lineup. Expect some regression from his batting average, but all his other stellar numbers should remain on par, meaning it will be another outstanding season that is worth a second-round pick.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Harper's 2020 Statcast data wound up being better than his 2015 unanimous MVP campaign. The 28-year-old has become somewhat of a saber-metric darling as his batting average, RBIs, and runs don't also jump off the page. Of course, those stats are pretty relevant for fantasy purposes. While Harper has been running more since his arrival to Philadelphia (15 steals in '19 and eight stolen bases last summer), he just isn't as valuable in traditional 5x5 roto as he is in points leagues or category leagues that utilize OBP. The Statcast data is STRONG, however, and public perception hasn't seem to catch on just yet. Harper is going to be an early-round target of mine, particularly in points and OBP leagues.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
Machado rode a career-year all the way to a third place finish in the National League MVP voting last summer. He proved to be a massive bargain in fantasy drafts following a disappointing 2019 campaign. Perhaps we never should've overreacted to his first year in San Diego, as Machado remains a tremendous talent. The issue with drafting him in 2021 is that we're paying a premium now. He'll need to produce at a similar rate as last year to pay off his aggressive ADP.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros