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Who Should I Draft?

Manny Machado or Xander Bogaerts (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Manny Machado
3B,SS - SD
Manny Machado
Xander Bogaerts
SS - BOS
Xander Bogaerts
Expert
Recommendation
75%
Recommended by
15 of 20 experts
25%
Recommended by
5 of 20 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 14# 15
Best Rank# 11# 14
Worst Rank# 21# 33
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 20# 26
Best Rank# 16# 21
Worst Rank# 22# 34
   
Projections 
   
Runs9395
Home Runs3528
RBI10593
Stolen Bases1010
Batting Average.277.292
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 14# 15
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 11# 15
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 14# 21
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 14# 26
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 14# 15
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 13# 15
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 14# 15
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 15# 16
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 14# 19
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 14# 22
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 12# 18
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 13# 14
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 11# 17
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 13# 33
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 14# 17
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 18# 15
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 19# 15
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 20# 18
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 21# 14
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 21# 17
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Manny Machado
3B,SS - SD
Manny Machado
Xander Bogaerts
SS - BOS
Xander Bogaerts
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats224203
   
Runs4436
   
Hits6861
   
Singles3942
   
Doubles128
   
Triples10
   
Home Runs1611
   
RBI4728
   
Stolen Bases68
   
Caught Stealing30
   
Walks2621
   
Strikeouts3741
   
Batting Average.304.301
   
On Base Pct.370.364
   
Slugging Pct.580.503
   
On-base Plus Slugging.950.867
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Manny Machado
3B,SS - SD
Manny Machado
Xander Bogaerts
SS - BOS
Xander Bogaerts
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats591568
   
Runs9395
   
Hits162164
   
Singles9698
   
Doubles2936
   
Triples21
   
Home Runs3528
   
RBI10593
   
Stolen Bases1010
   
Caught Stealing42
   
Walks6663
   
Strikeouts113115
   
Batting Average.277.292
   
On Base Pct.346.360
   
Slugging Pct.508.508
   
On-base Plus Slugging.854.868
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Manny Machado
3B,SS - SD
Manny Machado
Xander Bogaerts
SS - BOS
Xander Bogaerts
News 
 The Athletic reports Padres 3B Manny Machado underwent laser eye surgery this offseason.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sun, Feb 28th
 
Notes 
 Machado was on pace to set career highs in most statistical categories other than steals after last year's 60-game season. He set career bests in strikeout and walk rates and, most importantly to fantasy managers, batting average, where he checked in at .304. Machado's batting average was earned (he had an identica .304 xBA), and came on the back of him cutting his ground ball rate to a career low 37.2% and his line drive rate to a career high 22%. Machado is still just entering his age-29 season, and will continue to bat in a loaded lineup. Expect some regression from his batting average, but all his other stellar numbers should remain on par, meaning it will be another outstanding season that is worth a second-round pick.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Bogaerts largely backed up his excellent 2019 season with a strong 2020 campaign. He didn't hit the ball quite as hard and his launch angle dropped, but he did manage to maintain his .300 average and put up a similar home run pace. Two things from last year stand out and probably shouldn't be written off entirely: first, Bogaerts' RBI pace dropped significantly, and considering that the Red Sox lineup went from a relative strength to a weakness, it seems unlikely he'll approach 100 RBI in 2021. Second, after dropping for three consecutive seasons, Bogaerts' steal pace increased to the highest of his career. The drop in RBI and increase in steals may be related, as Bogaerts likely looked to manufacture runs with less help around him. Both trends are worth projecting going forward, and while Bogaerts' value doesn't change much, fantasy managers will likely take the increase in steals going forward.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Machado rode a career-year all the way to a third place finish in the National League MVP voting last summer. He proved to be a massive bargain in fantasy drafts following a disappointing 2019 campaign. Perhaps we never should've overreacted to his first year in San Diego, as Machado remains a tremendous talent. The issue with drafting him in 2021 is that we're paying a premium now. He'll need to produce at a similar rate as last year to pay off his aggressive ADP.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
The biggest story of Bogaerts' 2020 season came in the form of going 8-for-8 on stolen base attempts. This, after the All-Star shortstop swiped just four bags in 2019. Steals are so hard to find these days that getting 10-15 from bats who help in the other four offensive categories is going to be a goldmine this season. Bogaerts' Baseball Savant page isn't flooded with red like other premium hitters being drafted around him, but we have enough of a sample size to remain confident in his lofty projections moving forward.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros