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Who Should I Draft?

Nolan Arenado or Fernando Tatis Jr. (2020)

Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Nolan Arenado
3B - COL
Nolan Arenado
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SS - SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.
Expert
Recommendation
87%
Recommended by
39 of 45 experts
13%
Recommended by
6 of 45 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 10# 15
Best Rank# 5# 6
Worst Rank# 15# 31
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 11# 19
Best Rank# 9# 14
Worst Rank# 13# 32
   
Projections 
   
Runs3734
Home Runs1511
RBI4328
Stolen Bases18
Batting Average.305.284
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 10# 11
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 8# 10
   
Staff Rankings
FullTime Fantasy
# 7# 21
   
Alan Harrison
The Fantasy Fix
# 8# 16
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 14# 16
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 10# 14
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 8# 21
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 9# 17
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 9# 21
   
Chet Gresham
The Fake Baseball
# 9# 15
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 8# 18
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 9# 10
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 9# 14
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 11# 15
   
Andrea LaMont
Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports
# 8# 14
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 8# 11
   
Mark Ross
Athlon Sports
# 9# 16
   
Matt Brandon
Matt Brandon
# 10# 16
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 9# 24
   
Bill Dubiel
RotoBaller
# 9# 14
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 9# 16
   
Bobby Sylvester
FantasyPros
# 11# 31
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 8# 21
   
Jason Johnson
Understanding Fantasy Baseball
# 9# 14
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 11# 14
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 11# 20
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 9# 24
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 10# 14
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 10# 11
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 9# 17
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 8# 20
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 10# 13
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 9# 17
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 5# 10
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 10# 27
   
Sean Zerillo
The Action Network
# 7# 20
   
George Kurtz
FantasyData
# 9# 20
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 9# 20
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 9# 20
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 12# 10
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 12# 10
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 13# 11
   
Tim Young
Brewer Rat
# 13# 8
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 15# 6
   
Chris Mitchell
FantasyData
# 15# 11
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Nolan Arenado
3B - COL
Nolan Arenado
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SS - SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.
2019 Stats 
   
   
At Bats588334
   
Runs10261
   
Hits184106
   
Singles11065
   
Doubles3113
   
Triples26
   
Home Runs4122
   
RBI11853
   
Stolen Bases316
   
Caught Stealing26
   
Walks6230
   
Strikeouts93110
   
Batting Average.313.317
   
On Base Pct.378.379
   
Slugging Pct.582.590
   
On-base Plus Slugging.959.969
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Nolan Arenado
3B - COL
Nolan Arenado
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SS - SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.
2020 Projections 
   
   
At Bats212204
   
Runs3734
   
Hits6558
   
Singles3635
   
Doubles139
   
Triples13
   
Home Runs1511
   
RBI4328
   
Stolen Bases18
   
Caught Stealing13
   
Walks2318
   
Strikeouts3862
   
Batting Average.305.284
   
On Base Pct.375.344
   
Slugging Pct.573.513
   
On-base Plus Slugging.948.857
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Nolan Arenado
3B - COL
Nolan Arenado
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SS - SD
Fernando Tatis Jr.
News 
 Nolan Arenado hit his second homer of the spring on Tuesday against the Cubs.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Tue, Mar 3rd
Fernando Tatis Jr. (illness) is starting in Monday's Cactus League matchup against the Dodgers, leading off and playing shortstop.
Connor Rooney
Mon, Mar 9th
 Thomas Harding of MLB.com writes that Nolan Arenado is feeling disrespected by the Rockies' front office.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Mon, Jan 20th
Fernando Tatis Jr. (illness) returned to action at Padres camp on Friday.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Sat, Mar 7th
 The Rockies and Cardinals are reportedly exchanging names that could be involved in a trade centering on Nolan Arenado.
Blaine Blontz
Tue, Jan 14th
Fernando Tatis Jr. (illness) returned to the Padres' spring training facility Thursday, but will need a few more days to recover before rejoining the team's lineup in game action.
Connor Rooney
Thu, Mar 5th
 Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports Nolan Arenado has a "50/50" chance of being traded this off-season.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Jan 2nd
Padres GM A.J. Preller says the team has no plans to move Fernando Tatis Jr. to center field.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Feb 13th
Notes 
 Your goal in the first round is to not screw up the pick. With Arenado, you're getting arguably the safest player in the round not named Mike Trout on a year-to-year basis. It's now been four straight years with at least 37 homers, a .294 average, 100 runs and 110 RBIs.
Michael Waterloo - FantasyPros
Fernando Tatis Jr. is one of the more polarizing players for draft season. When we revisit this article next year, we'll either be looking at Tatis as a top-five pick or as a source of debate over how far he should fall after his disappointing second year in the bigs. We know the differential with his expected stats, but do we talk about his plate discipline enough? He had a 29.6 K% last year, with only an 8 BB%. The walk rate is passable, but if Tatis keeps striking out at that rate, it's going to hurt his overall game. Suddenly, you're looking at a guy with 180 strikeouts who's hitting .260. The power/speed combo that he brings is nice, but you can get similar production later in the draft waiting on someone like Bo Bichette, who has a much safer floor for batting average.
Michael Waterloo - FantasyPros
 There's very little to say about Arenado at this point. He's batted between .287 and .315, hit between 37 and 42 home runs, and driven in between 97 and 116 runs in each of the last five years. Entering his age-29 season, there are simply no concerns about Arenado so long as he remains in Colorado all year, though that is admittedly a bit of a question mark at this point. But really, so long as you are comfortable that you won't get steals from your first-round pick, there's no reason to shy away from Arenado whatsoever.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Tatis was sensational in his half of season with 22 homers, 16 steals and a .317 batting average but every underlying metric available to us screams significant regression. He is a strong source of power and speed but expect the BA to plummet.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
 Arenado won't steal any bases, but besides Trout, this is the most consistent and reliable bat in the majors. If he doesn't get traded, he is a virtual lock to again finish among the top 10 fantasy hitters and you just may be able to snag him at the end of the first round.
Bobby Sylvester - FantasyPros
This is high for such a young player with so little track record, but dual-threat HR/SB guys are running out at this stage in drafts. 20/20/.280 is a lock, 25/25/310 is possible and he qualifies at SS. I can't justify drafting a Non-Base stealing bat ahead of Tatis when he should provide 15-20 bases falling out of bed even if he was to miss 20 or so games due to injury. The floor is too high.
Chris Mitchell - FantasyData
 Consecutive years of diminished stolen bases by Altuve and a drop off in elite strikeout SPs puts me in a place to select a "slugger only" player and Arenado is one of the best.
Chris Mitchell - FantasyData