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Who Should I Draft?

Rafael Devers or Nolan Arenado (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Rafael Devers
3B - BOS
Rafael Devers
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
Expert
Recommendation
78%
Recommended by
40 of 51 experts
22%
Recommended by
11 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 19# 30
Best Rank# 13# 9
Worst Rank# 58# 60
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 40# 33
Best Rank# 35# 30
Worst Rank# 45# 42
   
Projections 
   
Runs9585
Home Runs3131
RBI10197
Stolen Bases52
Batting Average.282.274
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert-DTD
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 27# 32
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 22# 28
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 20# 31
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 17# 34
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 26# 37
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 19# 31
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 19# 36
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 17# 39
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 15# 41
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 21# 29
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 21# 29
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 19# 30
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 13# 60
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 18# 41
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 21# 33
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 24# 26
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 17# 37
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 17# 31
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 23# 47
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 24# 36
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 23# 32
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 24# 26
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 17# 41
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 28# 29
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 27# 29
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 17# 32
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 20# 38
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 21# 29
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 23# 45
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 18# 41
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 33# 53
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 22# 29
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 30# 31
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 16# 40
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 27# 37
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 22# 31
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 27# 51
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 17# 33
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 15# 29
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 19# 42
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 22# 20
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 22# 17
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 23# 15
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 24# 19
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 24# 19
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 24# 20
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 25# 24
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 29# 14
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 29# 18
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 34# 29
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 58# 9
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Rafael Devers
3B - BOS
Rafael Devers
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
2020 Stats 
   
   
At Bats232182
   
Runs3223
   
Hits6146
   
Singles3329
   
Doubles169
   
Triples10
   
Home Runs118
   
RBI4326
   
Stolen Bases00
   
Caught Stealing00
   
Walks1315
   
Strikeouts6720
   
Batting Average.263.253
   
On Base Pct.311.304
   
Slugging Pct.483.434
   
On-base Plus Slugging.793.738
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Rafael Devers
3B - BOS
Rafael Devers
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
2021 Projections 
   
   
At Bats589571
   
Runs9585
   
Hits165155
   
Singles9193
   
Doubles4029
   
Triples32
   
Home Runs3131
   
RBI10197
   
Stolen Bases52
   
Caught Stealing31
   
Walks4561
   
Strikeouts13895
   
Batting Average.282.274
   
On Base Pct.334.345
   
Slugging Pct.518.494
   
On-base Plus Slugging.852.839
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Rafael Devers
3B - BOS
Rafael Devers
Nolan Arenado
3B - STL
Nolan Arenado
News 
 Rafael Devers went 3-for-5 with a double, an RBI, and three runs scored in Saturday's 9-3 win over Baltimore.
Liam Gibney
Sun, Sep 19th
Nolan Arenado went 2-for-3 with a walk and a two-run home run in a 5-2 win over the Brewers on Monday night.
Lucas Spence
Mon, Sep 20th
 Rafael Devers went just 1-for-4 on the day, striking out twice. But he salvaged his fantasy day with a solo homer in the eighth inning.
Ethan Biddle - The Work of Ethan Biddle
Tue, Sep 14th
Nolan Arenado went 2-for-4 with a two-run home run in an 11-4 rout over the Mets on Wednesday.
Lucas Spence
Wed, Sep 15th
 Rafael Devers went 2-for-4 with an RBI, a run scored, and two walks on Monday.
Liam Gibney
Tue, Sep 7th
Nolan Arenado went 1-for-3 with a two-run home run in a 2-0 win over the Reds on Sunday.
Lucas Spence
Sun, Sep 12th
 Rafael Devers went 1-for-3 with a home run and three RBIs on Saturday.
Liam Gibney
Sun, Sep 5th
Nolan Arenado went 2-for-3 with a triple, two runs scored, three RBI, and the go-ahead, two-run home run in the bottom of the eighth inning to give the Cardinals a 6-4 win over the Reds on Saturday.
Lucas Spence
Sat, Sep 11th
 Rafael Devers went 2-for-5 with two home runs, two RBIs and two runs scored on Sunday.
Liam Gibney
Mon, Aug 30th
Nolan Arenado went 1-for-3 with a pair of RBI in a loss to the Dodgers on Tuesday.
Lucas Spence
Tue, Sep 7th
Notes 
 Devers' 2020 season was . . . fine. That's about the best you can say about it. He still hit the ball hard, ranking in the 96th percentile in average exit velocity, and he increased his barrel rate significantly. His counting stat paces from his breakout 2019 season went down, but not dramatically so (other than his batting average), and fantasy managers never felt like Devers was a drain on their teams. But, at the same time, his already poor walk rate declined, his strikeout rate jumped to a career worst, and he didn't even attempt a single stolen base. Devers is just 24 years old, so there is plenty of upside for him. The safest course of action is to build in some natural regression from Devers' strong 2019 season, and pencil him in for roughly 30 home runs and 200 combined runs and RBI. That still makes him an asset to any fantasy team.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
On the bright side, Arenado struck out just 10% of the time, a career-best. On the down side, there was everything else. Arenado batted just .253 and put up a 162-game pace of 27 home runs, 78 runs, 88 RBI, and zero steals. Those numbers won't kill your fantasy team, but considering Arenado's worst numbers over the previous five seasons were 37 home runs, 97 runs scored, and 110 RBI, they were a disaster. The good news, at least from the standpoint of projecting Arenado into the future, is that he was dealing with an injured AC joint in his shoulder for most of the season. In other words, fantasy managers can largely ignore Arenado's poor 2020 numbers, and focus instead on how he will perform now that he's been traded to the Cardinals. Although there's likely to be some dip in his numbers, we've seen hitters leave the Rockies and largely retain their value (or, in the case of DJ LeMahieu, increase their value), The best part is you won't have to pay that first-round price anymore, and if his ADP drops after the trade to St. Louis, it should be easy to turn a profit.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Just like in 2019, Devers got off to a slow start last season. He posted a weak .543 OPS over his first 14 games before coming to life with an .868 mark over his final 43 contests. Devers' O-swing has increased every year that he has been in the league, up to 42.3% in 2020. His breakout 2019 saw him make contact on an unsustainable number of pitchers outside the zone. The young third baseman is able to do damage on anything he makes contact with, but he needs to decrease the amount of strikeout to become a consistently elite hitter.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
The concern around Arenado leaving Coors may seem a bit overstated, but it is a legitimate concern. He has always been a superior hitter playing in Colorado and his statcast data has been on a steady decline for several years now. He is not someone I have been targeting in drafts.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
 Devers would be more appealing if he stole bases more often, but batting in the middle of the mediocre Red Sox lineup does not scream huge season. He is a fine pick, but not someone primed to break out.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
Arenado suffered a shoulder injury in his fifth game of the year in 2020. He played through it, and it clearly affected his power stroke. Instead of crushing doubles and homers over the heads of opposing outfielders, Arenado was weakly flying out. He was later shut down with a week left in the year, and I think it's fair to attribute his poor production to playing through injury. However, there will always be analysts knocking down Arenado for his move away from Coors Field. Yet savvy fantasy managers know by now that playing half your games in Coors hurts your road numbers more than any other park, so we can't simply view Arenado's road numbers as "who he truly is." For example, Matt Holliday's road OPS while with the Rockies was .803. While with the Cardinals? .853. I'm aggressively targeting Arenado anytime he lasts until Round 3 of drafts this spring, and I'll be sure to get some shares late in the second as well.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros