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Who Should I Draft?

Tyler Mahle or Marco Gonzales (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Tyler Mahle
SP - CIN
Tyler Mahle
Marco Gonzales
SP - SEA
Marco Gonzales
Expert
Recommendation
59%
Recommended by
30 of 51 experts
41%
Recommended by
21 of 51 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 56# 57
Best Rank# 36# 36
Worst Rank# 109# 161
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 173# 163
Best Rank# 162# 136
Worst Rank# 215# 185
   
Projections 
   
Strikeouts155142
Wins811
Saves00
ERA4.444.25
WHIP1.281.23
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert--
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 55# 56
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 53# 57
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 55# 80
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 71# 107
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 63# 88
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 52# 65
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 52# 55
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 51# 62
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 61# 87
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 64# 72
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 55# 58
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 52# 66
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 60# 68
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 51# 67
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 66# 68
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 36# 48
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 63# 65
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 56# 73
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 49# 68
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 62# 107
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 53# 67
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 55# 59
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 50# 51
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 68# 85
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 65# 78
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 81# 82
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 52# 63
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 80# 161
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 68# 71
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 36# 69
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 56# 52
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 57# 46
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 57# 50
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 58# 52
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 59# 56
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 61# 60
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 64# 57
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 65# 45
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 65# 56
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 68# 51
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 68# 58
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 72# 57
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 72# 55
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 72# 56
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 72# 59
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 76# 53
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 77# 52
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 82# 55
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 97# 85
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 103# 74
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 109# 36
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Tyler Mahle
SP - CIN
Tyler Mahle
Marco Gonzales
SP - SEA
Marco Gonzales
2020 Stats 
   
   
Games Played1011
   
Games Started911
   
Innings Pitched48.370.1
   
Wins27
   
Losses22
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed3559
   
Earned Runs2124
   
Home Runs Allowed68
   
Strikeouts6064
   
Walks217
   
ERA3.973.10
   
WHIP1.170.95
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Tyler Mahle
SP - CIN
Tyler Mahle
Marco Gonzales
SP - SEA
Marco Gonzales
2021 Projections 
   
   
Games Played2829
   
Games Started2729
   
Innings Pitched143.4172.4
   
Wins811
   
Losses910
   
Saves00
   
Blown Saves00
   
Holds00
   
Hits Allowed136174
   
Earned Runs7181
   
Home Runs Allowed2426
   
Strikeouts155142
   
Walks4838
   
ERA4.444.25
   
WHIP1.281.23
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Tyler Mahle
SP - CIN
Tyler Mahle
Marco Gonzales
SP - SEA
Marco Gonzales
News 
 Tyler Mahle (12-5) earned the win Thursday against the Pirates, tossing six shutout innings while allowing five hits and one walk. He struck out four.
Connor Rooney
Thu, Sep 16th
Marco Gonzales took the no-decison on Wednesday against Boston, allowing three runs on three hits over six innings with seven strikeouts and two walks.
Ari Koslow
Thu, Sep 16th
 Tyler Mahle did not factor into the decision Friday against the Cardinals, allowing two runs on four hits in six innings. He walked two and struck out six.
Connor Rooney
Sat, Sep 11th
Marco Gonzales earned the win on Friday against Arizona, allowing three runs (all unearned) on four hits over six innings with three strikeouts and one walk.
Ari Koslow
Sat, Sep 11th
 Tyler Mahle (11-5) earned the win Saturday against the Tigers, allowing four runs on six hits across five innings. He walked five and struck out eight.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Sep 5th
Marco Gonzales earned the win on Saturday against Arizona, allowing five runs on eight hits over five innings with two strikeouts and one walk.
Ari Koslow
Sun, Sep 5th
 Tyler Mahle (10-5) took the tough-luck loss Sunday against the Marlins, allowing two runs on four hits across seven innings. He walked two and struck out six.
Connor Rooney
Sun, Aug 29th
Marco Gonzales earned the win on Sunday against Kansas City, allowing two runs on five hits over seven innings with four strikeouts and two walks.
Ari Koslow
Sun, Aug 29th
 Tyler Mahle did not factor into the decision in Tuesday's loss to Milwaukee, allowing one run on five hits and one walk in 5.2 innings. He struck out eight.
Connor Rooney
Wed, Aug 25th
Marco Gonzales took the no-decision on Monday against Oakland, allowing three runs on five hits over six innings with two strikeouts.
Ari Koslow
Tue, Aug 24th
Notes 
 Mahle's solid 2020 season (3.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) will probably slip under the radar, but there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about him with a guaranteed spot in the Reds rotation. His strikeout rate jumped to 30% on the back of a 4.4% increase in his swinging strike rate, and he had just a .188 expected batting average against, top 10% in the league. The biggest change for Mahle was that he brought back a slider that he had shelved entirely in 2019, and batters hit just .180 against the pitch with a .249 wOBA. He could do well to cut down on his walks a bit, but still, as a fifth starter for your fantasy team, there's plenty of potential for profit.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
If you want to buy into performances from the 2020 season, then you'll have Gonzales significantly higher than you would otherwise. He made major gains last year, including up his strikeout rate to a career-best 23.1% and lowering his walk rate to a career-best 2.5%. Bu even with the gains, Gonzales's swinging strike rate was only 8.4% (below his career average), and his fastball velocity is close to the worst in the league. As a pure back end of the rotation starter, he's fine, but do not expect anything close to a 3.10 ERA again, and bake in regression for his strikeouts.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Tyler Mahle broke out in 2020, posting a 3.59 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 60 strikeouts across 47 2/3 innings. He added a slider to his pitch repertoire and upped his strike percentage to 29.6. The 26-year-old signed a one-year, $2.2 million contract with the Reds avoiding arbitration. Mahle will be a fixture in the Reds rotation and prove his breakout in 2020 was no fluke. He could be a mid-round bargain and a pitcher fantasy managers should be targeting in their upcoming drafts.
Brad Camara - FantasyPros