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Who Should I Draft?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Tyler Glasnow (2021)


Who Should I Draft? Player Summaries
 
Experts' Pick
 
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Tyler Glasnow
SP - TB
Tyler Glasnow
Expert
Recommendation
52%
Recommended by
29 of 56 experts
48%
Recommended by
27 of 56 experts
Rankings 
   
ECR# 49# 50
Best Rank# 15# 21
Worst Rank# 98# 115
   
ADP 
   
Composite# 51# 49
Best Rank# 40# 40
Worst Rank# 54# 54
   
Projections 
   
Runs84
Home Runs2720
RBI95
Stolen Bases3
Batting Avg.288
Strikeouts101196
Wins11
Saves0
ERA3.53
WHIP1.15
   
Misc 
   
Injury Alert-IL60
   
Expert Ranks 
   
Andy Behrens
Yahoo! Sports
# 53# 62
   
Scott Pianowski
Yahoo! Sports
# 51# 66
   
Site Projections
RotoChamp
# 74# 115
   
Grey Albright
Razzball
# 36# 74
   
Greg Smith
The Fake Baseball
# 30# 41
   
KJ
Fantasy Team Advice
# 35# 68
   
Andrew Gould
FantasyPros
# 46# 53
   
Rudy Gamble
Razzball
# 30# 93
   
Andy Singleton
Expand The Boxscore
# 45# 50
   
Adam Ronis
Fantasy Alarm
# 35# 39
   
Mike Maher
FantasyPros
# 47# 50
   
Tyler Thompson
Fantasy Six Pack
# 40# 46
   
Michael Waterloo
FantasyPros
# 30# 41
   
Donkey Teeth
Razzball
# 15# 50
   
Pierre Camus
RotoBaller
# 44# 46
   
Max Freeze
Freeze Stats
# 53# 62
   
Jorge B. Edwards
Fantasy In Frames
# 61# 86
   
Mick Ciallela
Fantrax
# 44# 47
   
Michael Petropoulos
BRoto Fantasy
# 41# 46
   
Ryan Amore
Pitcher List
# 28# 49
   
Brendan Tuma
FantasyPros
# 39# 49
   
Carmen Maiorano
FantasyPros
# 57# 72
   
Lucas Spence
Pitcher List
# 57# 64
   
Brad Camara
FantasyPros
# 39# 54
   
Staff Rankings
Roto Ranks
# 49# 50
   
Corbin Young
FantasyData
# 51# 98
   
SportsLine - Computer Simulation
CBS Sports
# 54# 78
   
Chris Clegg
Fantrax
# 45# 55
   
Joe Pisapia
FantasyPros
# 53# 61
   
Dalton Del Don
Yahoo! Sports
# 32# 21
   
Todd D Clark
The Fantasy Fix
# 43# 34
   
Joe Bond
Fantasy Six Pack
# 44# 40
   
Ariel Cohen
FanGraphs
# 47# 37
   
Jeff Boggis
Fantasy Football Empire
# 48# 45
   
Luke Gloeckner
Mr. Cheatsheet
# 49# 42
   
Dan Harris
FantasyPros
# 50# 49
   
Frank Stampfl
CBS Sports
# 50# 48
   
Steve Gardner
USA Today
# 51# 46
   
Tim McCullough
Baseball Prospectus
# 52# 51
   
Nicklaus Gaut
RotoBaller
# 53# 47
   
Jacob W. Dunne
New Life Fantasy
# 53# 52
   
Andrew Seifter
FantasyPros
# 54# 51
   
Jake Ciely
The Athletic
# 57# 52
   
Nick Pollack
Pitcher List
# 58# 55
   
Heath Capps
Fake Teams
# 59# 54
   
Wayne Bretsky
BretskyBall
# 59# 55
   
Jordan Eisen
Field of Vision Sports
# 61# 58
   
Nick Mariano
RotoBaller
# 64# 53
   
Dennis Sosic
Fantasy Six Pack
# 64# 45
   
Scott White
CBS Sports
# 65# 46
   
Mario Mergola
Sporfolio
# 70# 34
   
Chris Meaney
FTN
# 71# 47
   
Dave McKay
The Fantasy Sports Brain
# 71# 47
   
Nate Miller
FantasyPros
# 85# 51
   
Josh Shepardson
FantasyPros
# 95# 61
   
Muntradamus
Beast Dome
# 98# 80
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Statistics
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Tyler Glasnow
SP - TB
Tyler Glasnow
2020 Stats 
   
   
Runs34
   
Home Runs911
   
RBI33
   
Stolen Bases2
   
Batting Avg.262
   
Strikeouts3891
   
Wins5
   
Saves0
   
ERA4.08
   
WHIP1.13
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Projections
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Tyler Glasnow
SP - TB
Tyler Glasnow
2021 Projections 
   
   
Runs84
   
Home Runs2720
   
RBI95
   
Stolen Bases3
   
Batting Avg.288
   
Strikeouts101196
   
Wins11
   
Saves0
   
ERA3.53
   
WHIP1.15
   
Who Should I Draft? Player Notes
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
1B,3B,DH - TOR
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Tyler Glasnow
SP - TB
Tyler Glasnow
News 
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. exited Saturday's win over the Orioles after rolling his ankle but is feeling fine, Mike Wilner of the Toronto Star reports.
John Aubin
Sun, Oct 3rd
Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Tyler Glasnow (elbow) will undergo Tommy John surgery on Wednesday.
Brad Camara
Wed, Aug 4th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 1-for-4 with a double and drove in a run on Thursday as the Blue Jays lost to the Yankees by a 6-2 score.
John Aubin
Fri, Oct 1st
Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow is expected to undergo Tommy John surgery next week, according to ESPN MLB insider Jeff Passan.
Mike Maher - The Birds Blitz
Sat, Jul 31st
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 2-for-3 with a walk, a double, and scored a run on Wednesday as the Blue Jays lost to the Rays by a 7-1 score.
John Aubin
Thu, Sep 23rd
Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Tyler Glasnow (elbow) played light catch on Thursday.
Brad Camara
Thu, Jul 15th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 1-for-3 with a solo home run and a walk in Friday's 7-3 loss to Minnesota.
John Aubin
Sat, Sep 18th
The Rays transferred RHP Tyler Glasnow (elbow) to the 60-day injured list.
Brendan Tuma - Too Much Tuma
Thu, Jun 17th
 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went 1-for-5 with a solo home run in an 8-1 win over the Rays on Monday night.
John Aubin
Tue, Sep 14th
Rays RHP Tyler Glasnow (elbow) underwent an MRI on Tuesday, which revealed a partial UCL tear as well as a flexor strain. He was placed on the 10-day injured list with no timetable for a return.
Brad Camara
Tue, Jun 15th
Notes 
 Guerrero Jr. comes into 2021 with fantasy managers asking the same question they asked the year before: can he stop hitting the ball on the ground so much? A 49.6% ground-ball rate was bad in 2019, but a 54.6% ground ball rate in 2020 was downright egregious. Guerrero Jr. hits the ball really, really hard. He was in the top seven percent of MLB in average exit velocity (92.5 MPH) and hard hit rate (50.8%). But until he learns to stop pounding the ball into the dirt, his power upside will be limited. There will be some fantasy manager in your league willing to bet on the upside, so if you want Guerrero Jr., you're going to have to draft him before his numbers say you should. This may indeed be the year that everything clicks. But you'll have to pay to find out.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
Glasnow is really a fascinating case study. He followed up an incredible 60-inning stretch in 2019 (1.78 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 33% strikeout rate) with a bit of a step back last year (4.08 ERA and 1.13 WHIP). But his xFIP in 2020 (2.75) was actually lower than in 2019 (2.94), and his strikeout rate jumped to a whopping 38.2%. The real issue for Glasnow is that he's a two-pitch pitcher, and although both his fastball and curveball are outstanding, they need to be superb at all times for him to have a dominant season. And last year, they were both just a bit worse than the season prior, particularly his fastball. With enormous strikeout upside and a spot in the rotation of one of the best and most pitching-savvy teams in the Rays, Glasnow makes a fine SP2 for a fantasy team. But his injury history, and his lack of a third pitch, make him a bit riskier than others going in his range.
Dan Harris - FantasyPros
 Vlad's propensity to smack the ball into the ground is concerning, but he lost a ton of weight, is only 22 years old, and no one would be surprised if he took the superstar leap this season. He is a very solid pick at ADP with upside.
Michael Petropoulos - BRoto Fantasy
Glasnow is a classic risk-reward fantasy selection where he's being drafted. A prominent strikeout artist, he has completed six full innings in just 9-of-23 regular season starts since joining the Rays. A two-pitch pitcher, Glasnow is literally un-hittable when he's "on." However, when you have just two pitches, batters can more easily guess what's coming. This is what led to the 27-year-old giving up 11 homers in 2020. The strikeouts are nice but it feels like there's too much potential downside when considering his current ADP.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros
 At the end of the 2020 season Guerrero Jr. admitted to being out of shape for the start of summer camp, though he insists that he was ready to go for the original spring training. Quarantine life got the best of many of us, and young Vladito unfortunately wasn't an exception. By all reports, his weight loss effort has skyrocketed this offseason. It appears as if the message has been received. Guerrero is aiming to return to the hot corner in 2021. Improving his fitness is step one towards him having a good season. Step two will either be hitting less ground balls or doing more damage on his non-grounders. I'm comfortable taking an aggressive stance here and being a year early on Guerrero should it come to that.
Brendan Tuma - FantasyPros