Fantasy Football Player Notes

Diggs remains among the elite wide receivers in the NFL. He has now stacked three consecutive seasons with at least 100 receptions, 1,225 receiving yards, and eight receiving scores. Diggs was the WR6 in fantasy points per game while also ranking sixth in open rate (per ESPN analytics). He also finished top-ten in target share (tenth), red zone targets (fourth), and yards per route run (third). Diggs could begin to slow down as he's entering his age 30 season, but I fully believe he has at least 1-2 more electric seasons as a top 5-10 fantasy wide receiver before the cliff arrives.

Josh Allen finished QB2 in fantasy scoring behind Patrick Mahomes last season after finishing QB1 in 2020 and 2021. Allen remains capable of putting fantasy teams on his shoulders in any given week with multi-TD spike games. He's thrown for more than 4,000 yards in three straight seasons and has finished with 35 to 37 TD passes every year during that span. Allen adds immense value with his legs. He's run for 700+ yards in each of the last two years and has had at least six TD runs in each of his five NFL seasons. Allen is likely to be the first QB off the board in most 2023 fantasy drafts.

James Cook was used in a limited fashion during his rookie season, topping out at just a 56% snap share in Week 18 versus the Patriots. However, it should be noted that Cook forced a 60-40 split from Week 13 onward with veteran Devin Singletary. The first-year rusher averaged a 40% snap share over the team's final seven games, matching Singletary point-for-point (RB25 in points per game). Cook was also the superior rusher in the season's totality capping off his year by averaging 5.3 yards per carry (5th). He earned PFF's No. 1 ranking in breakaway run rate (44%). The spurts of explosiveness and receiving ability will work in Cook's favor as he enters Year 2 with the potential to emerge as Buffalo's Day 1 starter, with Damien Harris as his main competition.

The Harris signing signifies that the second-year pro is locked-in to the elite pass-catching role vacated in the backfield. In 2022, Singletary finished third among all running backs in route participation (57%). Considering Cook's 27% target rate per route run - equal or better than Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2022, 5th among all RBs with at least 30 targets - I fully expect him to take on a much larger role as a receiver in a Bills passing attack that is shrouded with question marks behind Stefon Diggs.

The Buffalo Bills signed Damien Harris (RB42 ADP) to a one-year contract to fill the void left by Devin Singletary. Bills general manager Brandon Beane stated earlier this offseason that the team wanted to add another back with more "size" to compliment smaller running backs like James Cook and Nyheim Hines. Harris, at 216 pounds, fits the mold of the bigger back that Beane was after, so it's not a shock to see this deal completed.

Last season, the former Patriots running back was plagued by injuries, playing in just 11 contests - two of which he left early. And in his nine healthy games, Harris averaged just 8.8 fantasy points, 11 carries, and 49 rushing yards per game. He took a major backseat to the surging Rhamondre Stevenson, who operated as the RB1 in the backfield for the majority of the season.

Now with Buffalo, Harris' best fantasy prospects are for him to land the Bills' red-zone back role. He scored just as many times as Stevenson from inside the ten-yard line last season (thrice) despite being out-carried in that area of the field 19 to six.

In 2022, former Bills RB Devin Singletary totaled just four rushing TDs inside the 10-yard on 16 carries. QB Josh Allen is frequently deployed as a goal-line rusher which might limit Harris' touchdown totals in 2023. However, we have seen quarterbacks run less at the goal line as they get older, so there's still a chance that Harris flirts with double-digit scores should his arrival mean the team leans on him more as their preferred rusher near the pylon to protect their franchise quarterback in the long term.

Davis didn't live up to the deafening hype last year. He finished as the WR36 in fantasy with an 18.2% target share (43rd). He remains Josh Allen's deep threat of choice, ranking 12th in deep targets and sixth in aDOT among wideouts. Davis has proven that he isn't a high-end target share earner. He was 68th in target per route run rate last year. Davis remains tied to Allen's cannon of an arm, so spike weeks will come again in 2023. At this point, you're kidding yourself if you think he will turn into a consistent WR2 type of player. Davis is a WR3/4 that can win you a week when he's locked in. I'm more inclined to get my Davis exposure than in redraft this year. The addition of Dalton Kincaid and James Cook taking another step forward could make his peaks and valleys more pronounced this season.

After scoring nine touchdowns in 2021, Dawson Knox had only two touchdowns in the Bills' first 12 games of 2022. But Knox got hot down the stretch, scoring a touchdown in each of Buffalo's last four regular-season games. The 26-year-old Knox took a value hit with the Bills' selection of rookie TE Dalton Kincaid in the NFL Draft. Knox has had more than 500 receiving yards in each of the last two seasons, but his chances of a third straight 500-yard season will be remote if he splits snaps with Kincaid and is mostly used as an in-line blocker.

It's rare for rookie tight ends to make a significant fantasy impact, but Kincaid has a chance to provide instant value. The Bills traded up two spots in the first round of the NFL Draft to land Kincaid, who was widely regarded as the best pure pass catcher in a loaded TE class. The presence of veteran TE Dawson Knox could limit Kincaid's snaps, but he should still see his fair share of targets, and those targets will be coming from one of the NFL's top quarterbacks, Josh Allen.

Latavius Murray performed well when Denver scooped him up during the middle of last season after Javonte Williams went down with a devastating knee injury. In 12 games from Weeks 6-18, Murray was the RB24 in half-point scoring averaging 10.3 points per game (RB30). He was PFF's 10th-highest graded rusher (82.8) and averaged 15 touches per game. Murray also averaged nearly 70 yards from scrimmage and 3 targets per game. Not too shabby for the 33-year-old running back.