Fantasy Football Player Notes

Allen posted another elite season as the QB2 in fantasy points per game. He has not finished lower than QB3 in fantasy points per game since 2020, with three seasons as the QB1. The rushing production continues to be a big part of his wizardry, as he had 12 rushing scores while ranking fifth in rushing yards and third in red zone carries per game. Allen remains no slouch as a passer as well, ranking ninth in yards per attempt, seventh in highly accurate throw rate, and first in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). He is in the running for QB1 overall again this season.

Well, in 2024, Cook finally answered the question, "What could happen if Cook could score more than two rushing touchdowns in a season?" After back-to-back seasons with only two rushing scores, Buffalo loaded him with the seventh-most carries for a back inside the ten-yard line, and Cook responded with 16 rushing touchdowns (18 total touchdowns) as he finished as the RB11 in fantasy points per game. If Cook's prodigious touchdown scoring doesn't continue in 2025, he could be a letdown. He was the RB26 in expected fantasy points per game last year. The Bills still seemed hesitant to increase his volume, with only 239 touches and four games with at least 20 touches. Now, I will say Buffalo will remain one of the best offenses in the NFL, so Cook could easily post 15-plus scores again in 2025. Last year, among 46 qualifying backs, Cook ranked 20th in explosive run rate, 11th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 24th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). He should be a top-15 back this season with strong RB1 upside again.

Khalil Shakir picked up where he left off in 2023, emerging as Josh Allen's go-to guy, leading the Bills in targets, catches, and receiving yards while finishing as the WR38 overall (WR43 in points per game). He posted strong efficiency metrics - a 29% target rate per route run (10th among all WRs), 2.2 yards per route run (18th), and 7.0 YAC/reception (4th). Despite his strong usage, Shakir underwhelmed in fantasy due to just 4 TDs on 94 catches and minimal red-zone involvement. Still, Buffalo rewarded him with a four-year extension. With better touchdown luck and strong chemistry with his elite QB, Shakir could take another leap forward.

A lot of people were expecting big things from Dalton Kincaid in 2024 after his promising rookie season. But Kincaid failed to build on his 2023 numbers and experienced slippage in a number of areas. He went from 42.1 receiving yards per game as a rookie to 34.5 yards per game last year. His catch rate fell from 80.2% to 58.7%. His yards per target slipped from 7.4 to 6.0. On the bright side, Kincaid is a talented former first round pick with a good athletic profile. Josh Allen is one of the NFL's best quarterbacks, but the Bills don't have an abundance of firepower at wide receiver. It's possible Dalton delivers a breakout season in 2025 and establishes himself as an upper-echelon tight end.

Ray Davis is another strong handcuff option. Last year, he played a complementary role behind James Cook. He had only two games where he played more than 50% of the snaps. In those two contests, he averaged 20 touches and 108.5 total yards. He was the RB14 in weekly fantasy scoring both weeks. Davis was productive on a per-touch basis, ranking fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt and 21st in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). If James Cook misses any time, Davis would likely be the leadback for Buffalo in a timeshare with Ty Johnson.

Keon Coleman flashed big-time potential as a rookie, most notably with his 125-yard breakout in Week 7. Prior to a midseason wrist injury in Week 9, Coleman was emerging for Buffalo, averaging over 2.0 yards per route run and posting +136 receiving yards over expected (recYOE) - the third-best mark by a rookie WR through eight weeks since 2018, behind only Ja'Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. Now healthy and a projected starter in Buffalo's 3-WR sets, Coleman is slated for a strong Year 2 breakout in an offense looking for playmakers behind Khalil Shakir.

Palmer is a solid and cheap bet to make on the Buffalo offense. His surface stats don't jump off the page. In the games in which he played at least 50% of the snaps last year, he had a 13.7% target share, 1.57 yards per route run, a 17.2% first-read share, and 0.075 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). It's when we pop open the hood and peek at his per-route metrics that things get interesting. Last year, among 112 qualifying wide receivers, Palmer was one of the best separators in the NFL, ranking 16th in separation and 12th in route win rate. Now, those numbers are eye-popping, especially when you discuss one of the best offenses in the NFL, yet only one receiving option was able to draw more than a 20% target share last year (Khalil Shakir). Palmer's route running and separation ability could lead to consistently heavier usage in Buffalo, where they don't have a receiver commanding a high target share. Palmer is worth the late-round flier to find out.