Fantasy Football Player Notes

Nick Chubb just put together the quietest 1,525 rushing-yard season in recent memory. The Browns running back averaged 5 yards per carry (again) and posted a career-high 13 touchdowns. He finished the year as the RB6 overall with a top 10 backfield opportunity share (64%), but most of his fantasy production came prior to Deshaun Watson returning to the lineup. During Weeks 1-12, Chubb was the RB4 overall and in points per game. From Weeks 13-17 with Watson at quarterback, he was the RB23 overall and RB33 in points per game. These splits likely won't carry over into 2023 based on Watson likely boosting the offense's overall efficiency making Chubb a near-bust-proof draft pick based on his track record of consistency. Chubb also can capture a more prominent role as a receiver with Kareem Hunt and D'Ernest Johnson no longer on the roster. 2022 5th-rounder Jerome Ford is pegged as the No. 2 RB. In Week 18, Chubb played a season-high 75% snap share, ran a route on 71% of dropbacks and caught 5-of-6 targets (22% target share) for 45 yards.

Amari Cooper finally turned into the high-volume receiver we have wanted for years as he finished as the WR17. Cooper amassed a 26.1% target share (16th), a 26.1% target per route run rate (20th), and a 38.3% air yard share (seventh). Cooper will be entering his age 29 season, so there's some concern if his production could begin to taper off. Cooper turned back the hands of time with his highest yards per route run last season since 2019. Cooper was also 12th in red zone and deep targets. As long as Deshaun Watson can return to some shade of his former self at quarterback, Cooper should be able to turn in another WR2 campaign.

The 2022 version of Deshaun Watson was a far cry from the early-career Watson who finished top five in QB fantasy scoring in each of his first three seasons as a starter. Amid allegations of sexual assault, Watson didn't play in 2021 and served an 11-game suspension in 2022 before making a Week 13 debut for the Browns against his old team, the Texans. Watson was predictably rusty, producing numbers befitting a fantasy backup over a small sample size. It's reasonable to assume that Watson will look at least a little more like the dynamic dual-threat QB he used to be in 2023, but it would be a leap of faith to assume that he'll be as effective as he was from 2018 to 2020.

David Njoku's first five seasons in Cleveland were a mixed bag, but the uber-athletic tight end had a strong 2022 campaign, with 58 catches for 628 yards and four touchdowns in 14 games. Njoku hauled in 72.5% of his targets and averaged 44.9 yards per game. Although he's been in the league since 2017, Njoku will only be entering his age-27 season, so he's squarely in the prime of his career. With his massive wingspan and above-average speed, Njoku might still be able to take up his game another notch.

After a promising start to his career in his rookie season, Elijah Moore had a rocky and underwhelming 2022. In the nine games, Moore played at least 70% of the snaps; he only saw a 13.2% target share, zero end zone targets, and a 14% target per route run rate. In that sample, he only mustered 1.00 yards per route run. Woof! Those are atrocious numbers for a ballyhooed second-year receiver touted as the next rocket ship to the moon type player. His quarterback play was abysmal, but some blame for his production woes also lies at his feet. The big question is will he be a full-time player in 2023? Cleveland ranked 22nd in 11 personnel usage in 2022, so worries are warranted. Cleveland will likely roll with Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones when they go two wide, so the Browns' bump in 11 usage has to happen for Moore to actualize a ceiling. He's a risky dice roll in the later rounds of drafts that could pay off, but a lot has to move in his favor for him to resume his rookie season career trajectory.

After Week 3 last year, Donovan Peoples-Jones saw an uptick in his usage as he developed into a sold (not spectacular) weekly WR3. In Weeks 4-18, he handled a 19.3% target share and a 28.6% air yard share churning out 1.66 yards per route run. He was a WR3 or better in weekly fantasy, scoring ten times. With Elijah Moore in town, Peoples-Jones will see weekly competition to remain the number two/three option in this passing attack, even if we don't throw David Njoku into this conversation. Peoples-Jones is a WR5 that could walk right back into WR3 production if Njoku can't stay healthy and Moore flops.