Fantasy Football Player Notes

Taylor posted another RB1 season (RB7 in fantasy points per game) while dealing with a high ankle sprain. He racked up 321 touches and 1,567 total yards with 12 scores. While I think Taylor should post another top 12 season in 2025, I do have some concerns. The quarterback play for Indy is a worry with how often they could be in the red zone this year, as well as his lack of pass-game involvement. Last year, Taylor ranked sixth in red zone touches. I don't know if he comes close to that number this season, but I could easily be wrong. I don't see more check-down opportunities for Taylor this season with Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson under center. It's not like he's demanding those looks either, with his per-route performance in 2024, anyway. Last year, among 45 qualifying backs, Taylor ranked 37th in target share (7.4%) and 43rd in yards per route run and first downs per route run. Taylor is a solid pick again this year, but I struggle to see a ceiling outcome for him in 2025.

When Josh Downs played with a more capable passer in Joe Flacco during the 2024 season, his production skyrocketed.
With Flacco at QB (eight starts), the Colts' slot WR went over his receiving yards prop in 88% of his games. 60-plus receiving yards in seven of the eight games. In the seven true games Flacco started, Downs earned a 26% target share, 9.3 targets per game, and 66.4 receiving yards per game.
If the Colts can get any semblance of average QB play between Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson, Downs will be a bargain in 2025 fantasy drafts.

Michael Pittman Jr. was one of 2024's biggest fantasy letdowns, finishing as the WR43 overall and WR52 in points per game. Despite a team-high 23% target share with Anthony Richardson under center, Pittman's fantasy ceiling was capped by a low-scoring offense and poor red-zone efficiency - just 3 touchdowns on 12 red-zone targets, and none from Richardson. Injuries didn't help either, as Pittman played through a fractured back for much of the season. Heading into 2025, Pittman enters as the Colts' WR1, although it's a much tougher bet with Josh Downs continuing to emerge. Accompanied by a deep Colts pass-catching room and lingering questions at QB between Daniel Jones/ Richardson, suggest Pittman's draft price requires a steep discount to be worth targeting.

Tyler Warren posted absurd numbers for Penn State in 2024, with 104 catches, 1,233 yards and eight touchdowns. He has an angry playing style reminiscent of Georget Kittle. Warren is not easy to tackle. The Colts landed Warren with the 14th overall pick of the draft. It seems like a suboptimal landing spot given the Colts' uncertainty at quarterback. But Warren did some damage as a runner last year at Penn State, adding 218 rushing yards and four TD runs. That's one possible way for Warren to pad his value. But it's probably best to temper expectations for Warren in his rookie season.

Alec Pierce emerged as a legit deep threat in 2024, with a mini-breakout in Year 3 with a career-high 824 yards and 7 touchdowns despite just 37 receptions. He led the NFL in average depth of target (22.2) and ranked 12th in total air yards (1,485), thriving as a vertical weapon for both Colts quarterbacks. Pierce fended off second-round rookie Adonai Mitchell to retain a starting role and earned praise from GM Chris Ballard for delivering on his second-round pedigree. However, his 13% target share and 4.2 targets per game limit his week-to-week floor, especially in full-PPR formats. He remains a classic "better in best ball" play due to his splash-play reliance and lack of consistent volume. Unless an injury shifts the target distribution in Indianapolis, Pierce is more of a volatile WR4/5 with boom potential in 2025.

After two disappointing and injury-marred seasons, former fourth overall draft pick Anthony Richardson will have to earn the Colts' starting QB job in a training camp battle with ex-Giant Daniel Jones. Richardson played only four games as a rookie in 2023, with an October shoulder injury putting him on the shelf for the rest of the season. But Richardson offered glimpses of immense fantasy potential, with 136 rushing yards and four TD runs in those four games, along with three TD passes. But Richardson was a disaster as a passer last season, completing only 47.7% of his passes, with eight touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The 6-4, 244-pound Richardson is a remarkable physical specimen who still offers considerable fantasy upside because of his rushing ability, but his struggles as a passer threaten to derail his career.

Adonai Mitchell is a dark-horse Year 2 breakout candidate after flashing elite efficiency in limited action as a rookie. He posted a 28% target rate per route run - a mark that would've ranked top-20 among WRs if he had qualified - and consistently created separation in his routes. The challenge in 2025 will be earning more consistent playing time in a crowded Colts receiver room featuring Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and deep threat Alec Pierce. But with his ability to command targets and get open, Mitchell is a strong upside stash who could explode with an expanded role.

Giddens was the 15th running back selected in the draft as he landed with the Colts. He'll compete with Khalil Herbert to earn backup duties behind the Colts' incumbent starter, Jonathan Taylor. Giddens' talent is very real after he ranked 16th in yards after contact per attempt, sixth in breakaway percentage, and 22nd in elusive rating last year (per PFF). He's in the final-round pick bucket that could pay off handsomely if he earns the RB2 spot and Taylor misses any time.

After six topsy-turvy seasons with the Giants and a late-season stint as Sam Darnold's backup in Minnesota last season, Daniel Jones signed a one-year, $14 million deal with the Colts, who'll give him a chance to compete with Anthony Richardson for the starting job. Jones had a good fantasy season in 2022, finishing QB9 in fantasy scoring that year, largely on the strength of 708 rushing yards and seven TD runs. But Jones was ineffective in 2024, and the Giants benched him after 10 starts. Because of his rushing ability, the 28-yard Jones could have some low-level fantasy value if he's able to beat out Richardson.