Fantasy Football Player Notes

It's looking like a very good possibility for Taylor to see 250-plus carries in his rookie season. Some may think that's absurd, but Marlon Mack totaled 247 carries in just 14 games last year. Even if we give Mack the 100 carries that Jordan Wilkins and Jonathan Williams combined for last year, it'd leave room for Taylor to hit the 250 mark. He's also running behind the best offensive line in football, so it wouldn't be a shock to see him rush for 1,200 yards in year one with his vision and speed in the open field. Taylor is right in the same territory as someone like Nick Chubb.

As a soon-to-be 31-year-old coming off an injury-plagued season and playing with a new quarterback, it's not a good look to show up to camp with a non-football hamstring injury. There will be no preseason game action for him to build any chemistry with his new quarterback, so training camp was important. Hilton has never been a touchdown guy, as his career high is capped out at seven touchdowns. So, he's reliant upon targets more than someone like D.K. Metcalf, who can score 10 touchdowns. Not only do we have to worry about Hilton's health and age, but we also have to worry about his quarterback's. Philip Rivers was not good last year and hasn't traditionally thrown to guys like Hilton who are undersized and play on the perimeter. With so many variables and lack of true upside, I'm okay fading Hilton, especially at his current cost. If you're able to land him as a backend WR3, I'm okay with the risk/reward, as there aren't too many safe options in that range.

We never reached the expected performance out of Mack behind the Colts top-tier offensive line, so why shouldn't we have expected them to draft a running back? Drafting Jonathan Taylor in the second round was a straight dagger to Mack's value in any format. He'll be lucky to get eight touches per game in that offense this year.

We've watched the Colts tight end duo score plenty of fantasy points over the last two years under Frank Reich, right? They've combined for 186 receptions, 2,096 yards and 25 touchdowns in that time. Now, we get Philip Rivers, the guy who's supported a top-11 tight end in all but one season in his long career, yet none of the Colts tight ends are being drafted in the top 18 at the position? The logical one is Doyle, who has now seen 105 targets in 22 games under Frank Reich. Burton is similar in the way that he's more of a move tight end while Doyle is the traditional one who'll be on the field most of the time. In a year where the Colts threw the ball just 513 times, it's good to see Doyle with at least four targets in 12-of-15 games. If you want to wait at tight end and search for a potential every-week starter, Doyle makes some sense.

There's no masking it, Rivers was bad in 2019. He's now 38 years old (will be 39 in December), which is the age quarterbacks used to hit their decline (before Brady and Brees came along). Have we reached the end with him? He played behind a bad offensive line last year, something he's done through much of his career. In 2020, he'll play behind a top-three offensive line in football. He has already played under Frank Reich back when he threw for 4,286 yards and 31 touchdowns, then a career-high 4,792 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2015. Does that make a difference knowing it was five years ago? Well, yeah, in a way. The good news is that he at least knows the basics of the offense, which is important this year when we've had practically no offseason. The bad news is that chemistry will have to be built on the fly, and it's even harder when your top receiver (T.Y. Hilton) shows up to camp on the injured list. We did see Jacoby Brissett and Brian Hoyer combine for 22 touchdown passes last year and Andrew Luck throw for 39 touchdowns in 2018, so it's a good offense. If you want to select Rivers in a 2QB format, it could pay dividends, though his fantasy floor might be a bit lower than someone like Gardner Minshew who uses his legs. There are way too many variables to consider him anything more than a streamer in 1QB formats.

There are some who are pointing at Hines as the primary beneficiary to Philip Rivers' arrival in Indianapolis, but I'm not one of them. Did we forget that the Colts dealt with tons of injuries last year and Hines still wound up with just 96 touches on the year? This is still the same coaching staff who didn't put him on the field over a guy like Jonathan Williams. Now you add in Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, and he's going to get a bigger role? Nah. Let someone else draft him.

If T.Y. Hilton continues to miss time with his hamstring ailment, Campbell is a candidate for sleeper of the year. Going back through the years with Philip Rivers, there's always been a target over the middle of the field. Whether it be Antonio Gates, Hunter Henry, Keenan Allen, or Eddie Royal. Campbell is going to fill the slot role when T.Y. Hilton is healthy, which isn't a bad thing. And if Hilton were to miss time, Campbell will move around the formation. Fortunately, he's a bigger, stronger, and faster version of Hilton. We haven't seen him play at the level Hilton has, but the Colts did draft him in the second round last year, highlighting their vision for him in this offense. While Hilton remains sidelined and rookie Michael Pittman tries to acclimate to the NFL, Campbell is a dark horse to lead this team in targets. Taking him in the double-digit rounds makes tons of sense, and best of all, you'll find out what you have over the first couple weeks.

He's someone who rapidly moved up draft boards as the NFL Draft approached. The Colts liked him so much that they selected him over Jonathan Taylor (who they then traded up to get a few picks later), so it's clear they love Pittman. They did love Parris Campbell in last year's draft, too, so we can't go overboard. They said the plan is for Pittman to be the "X" receiver in the offense, which should present value with someone like Philip Rivers, who has zero issue throwing into tight coverage, especially when his receiver is 6-foot-4 and 223 pounds. This is your reminder that Mike Williams is 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, while Vincent Jackson was 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds. These are wide receivers that Rivers targeted relentlessly. Mike Williams averaged just 2.0 yards of separation at target last year, the second-worst mark in football. Can Pittman make it into the starting lineup opening day? If so, Rivers could fall in love with his size, particularly in the red zone. He's worth a pick with one of your last few selections, as he's a dark horse to lead the team in receiving touchdowns.

The only two wide receivers who know the offense and have been able to put in time with their new quarterback are Pascal and Parris Campbell. Is it possible that Pascal is better than everyone thinks? Pascal averaged 8.4 yards per target last year while playing with Jacoby Brissett and Brian Hoyer, which included five games of 72 yards or more. Knowing that T.Y. Hilton is dealing with a hamstring injury and that Michael Pittman is a rookie, it's possible that Pascal is in the starting lineup. With so much uncertainty around the 2020 NFL season, Pascal could be an early-season waiver wire pickup if he plays 50-plus snaps in Week 1.