Fantasy Football Player Notes

Edwards-Helaire was probably set to be overvalued in fantasy drafts, but now that Damien Williams has opted out, he immediately vaults into reliable RB1 territory. The Chiefs spent their first-round pick on Edwards-Helaire and, regardless, pretty much any replacement value running back can find fantasy gold in Kansas City's system. There are still other running backs on the roster who will garner touches, including Darrel Williams and Darwin Thompson, and because the Chiefs' offense is so dynamic, there is no reason for them to run their rookie back into the ground. Still, without Damien Williams, Edwards-Helaire should get the majority of the touches in the backfield, and that puts him in firm RB1 territory, full stop.

He's a very good football player and one who can help you win fantasy weeks... but is he a No. 1 wide receiver on fantasy teams? In my Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between series, I highlighted the fact that he's been a WR2 or better in just 44.1 percent of his career games, while someone like Julio Jones has posted WR1 numbers in 42.4 percent of his games. Hill averaged just 7.4 targets per game last year, a number that will need to come up for him to be a more consistent fantasy option. Can it happen? Absolutely. The addition of Clyde Edwards-Helaire will not help that, nor will the supposed increase in Mecole Hardman offensive snaps. There were just two games in 2019 where Hill saw double-digit targets, which again, limits his consistency. By comparison, Davante Adams has averaged 11.0 targets per game over the last two years while Julio Jones saw 10-plus targets in 7-of-15 games in 2019. If you want to draft Hill as your WR1, I have no issue with it, but understand that you'll need to balance your roster throughout the remainder of the draft. Robert Woods is someone that immediately comes to mind as consistent and reliable, and would make a perfect complement to someone like Hill.

It's now been four straight seasons where Kelce has finished with 1,000-plus yards. He's as safe as they come and should still be in the prime of his career at 30 years old. Patrick Mahomes took a step back in terms of touchdown percentage in 2019, but could very well bounce back to elite levels in 2020, giving Kelce consideration as a second-round pick in fantasy drafts. If you have "your guys" in the middle rounds, Kelce makes sense as an early-round pick. He's now posted TE1-type numbers in 28-of-32 games over the last two years. It also helps when you see 41.4 percent of your team's targets inside the 10-yard line, like Kelce did in 2019.

If you invested a first-round pick in Mahomes last year, you weren't happy with the results. In games he started, he posted QB1-type numbers in just 57.1 percent of them. However, there were some factors to take into consideration. One, he was going to regress. Two, he suffered an injury during the Week 7 game against the Broncos that seemed to affect him throughout the remainder of the regular season. In the seven games following that injury, he threw for three touchdowns just once, while throwing for more than 283 yards just twice. Was that a sign of things to come? Probably not considering he threw for 901 yards and 10 touchdowns in three playoff games. You must ask yourself, "What's the worst/best-case scenario with Mahomes?" prior to drafting him. Worst case was probably last year, where he was the No. 52 value-based player. That means if we'd drafted 2019 all over again, his value would've been correct as the 52nd player selected, so a fifth-round pick. Best case scenario is that he finishes as the No. 5 value-based player like he did in 2018. If you're somewhere in the middle, he's still worth a third-round pick with upside for more. Most of the time with Mahomes, it all just depends on your particular draft, as there are some who'll see him go in the first round of their 1QB league. You're baking in too much risk there. As a late-second, early-third round pick, you have some room for growth. Anything beyond that is just a steal. With the lack of offseason, it'll affect defenses more than it will offenses, so we could see a record-breaking year for Mahomes.

You're going to see Bell fall down draft boards this year, and further than he should. That's odd for me to say, as Bell was someone I was avoiding like the plague in drafts. The difference? Expectations. Playing him as your first-round pick in your RB1 slot was never something anyone should've expected, especially behind that offensive line and in Gase's offense. While he's still stuck in Gase's offense, the offensive line was upgraded quite a bit this offseason, which should allow Bell more room to work. Even if he repeated his 2019 performance, that's RB2 production. There were just 11 running backs who produced RB2 or better numbers more often than him. Sure, he didn't have a ton of weekly upside, but he was safe. Now coming off the board outside the top three rounds, Bell is a value play.

I understand the want to draft Hardman, I really do. But has the hype train gotten out of control? He's played four years of college and pro football, and here are his touch totals (most recent first): 30, 40, 33, and 0. He's been highly efficient on almost all of those touches, but at some point, you have to ask yourself why he's not getting more. Seriously, his efficiency last year was out of this world. Here are some stats for you from my 175 interesting facts from the 2019 football season article:
- Among wide receivers who've seen at least 30 targets, Mecole Hardman's 13.1 yards per target ranks as the third-highest mark among wide receivers over the last 10 years.
- Mecole Hardman averaged 2.77 PPR points per target in 2019, which ranked as the fourth-best mark among wide receivers over the last 10 years.
Pretty nuts, right? I'm not arguing his efficiency at all. His performance last year was very Tyreek Hill-esque, and I could see him breaking out similarly to Hill, "if" Hill wasn't on the field with him. It certainly helps that the Chiefs are taking him off special teams to focus on offense, as that's the same thing they did with Hill a few years ago. Drafting him as a WR4/5 could be worth the reward but understand that he might be the No. 5 option in the passing game behind Hill, Travis Kelce, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Sammy Watkins. For a team that hasn't thrown the ball more than 583 times in Andy Reid's entire time in Kansas City, that directly impacts Hardman, even if he is uber efficient. If he starts playing more snaps than Watkins, that's when you'll see me completely buy in.

Does anyone else believe that Watkins may have played through injury in 2019? He hadn't tallied anything less than 8.3 yards per target over the previous four years, and that's despite some subpar quarterback talent in Buffalo and Los Angeles. Knowing that Watkins is the No. 2 option at wide receiver in a Patrick Mahomes-led offense and that he's going outside the top-50 wide receivers is bananas. Sure, he was bad in 2019, but he looked like the player we thought he'd be once they got to the playoffs, as he compiled 14 receptions for 288 yards and a touchdown on 18 targets in their three playoff games. The Chiefs also had an opportunity to move on from Watkins this offseason, but they decided to keep him on the roster. He may not be an every-week option from the get-go, but knowing you have a player tied to Patrick Mahomes who saw six-plus targets in 10-of-17 games last year should carry some weight. Snagging him as a WR4/5 with upside makes too much sense, as we can't let one inefficient year erase what he's been throughout his career. There's an avenue to him finishing as a WR3 without injury in front of him.

Butker led the NFL in field-goal attempts and conversions last year, and the Chiefs are nearly always among the league leaders in field-goal attempts. Wait on kicker, obviously, but Butker will be one of the best yet again.

Despite playing in one of the best offenses in football, Robinson has one little from a fantasy perspective. He set or tied career-highs last year with 55 targets, 32 receptions, 449 receiving yards, and four touchdowns, but it will take far more than that for him to get on the fantasy radar. Behind Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, and Mecole Hardman, Robinson needs injuries to one or more of the other receivers to have any relevancy.

Remember when Thompson had an incredible preseason and everyone wanted to draft him as the potential starter in this backfield? One year and 46 touches later, no one is drafting the second-year running back. He'd need multiple injuries to find his way into fantasy relevance, as both Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Damien Williams are well ahead of him on the depth chart.