Fantasy Football Player Notes

Before he was lost to injury in Week 4 of last season, Rice was humming along as the WR15 in fantasy points per game. He was Patrick Mahomes' go-to option with a 31.5% target share, 3.60 yards per route run, a 41.2% first-read share, and 0.188 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Rice should be reinstated into this high-volume role immediately, assuming his health cooperates. We saw Xavier Worthy flourish in Rice's manufactured touch role to close last season, but I don't have any worries about Rice losing the job to Worthy. Rice is a WR2 that could finish as a WR1 this season if things break right.

Xavier Worthy broke out down the stretch in 2024, posting at least four catches and 40+ yards in 10 straight games while scoring 12 total touchdowns (9 receiving, 3 rushing) on the year. From Week 11 on, he averaged over 2.0 yards per route run and 14.6 fantasy points per game - WR8 production over that span. He also ranked 10th in red-zone targets and finished the regular season as the WR21 from Weeks 11-17. With Rashee Rice facing an injury recovery and potential suspension, Worthy is in line to step into a featured role in Kansas City's offense. Locked in as WR17 in projections, Worthy's arrow is pointing way up heading into 2025.

Fantasy gamers have to recalibrate expectations for Patrick Mahomes following another season in which he failed to deliver top-tier production. After averaging better than 20 fantasy points per game in each of his first five seasons as Kansas City's starting quarterback, Mahomes has averaged fewer than 19 fantasy points per game in each of the last two seasons and has finished outside the top 10 in that category among QBs. He finished with 3,928 passing yards and 26 TD passes in 2024, with a career-low 6.8 yards per attempt. Subpar protection from his offensive line and a season-ending injury to WR Rashee Rice early on didn't help, but it's now difficult to envision Mahomes leading all QBs in fantasy scoring, as he did in 2018 and 2022. Still, Mahomes is an every-week fantasy starter who won't leave you adrift at the position. With Xavier Worthy coming off a strong late-season run, Rice back from injury, Travis Kelce returning for at least one more season, and Marquise Brown and rookie Jaylen Royals, Mahomes should have no shortage of pass-catching weaponry.

Last year was another season dinged by injury for Pacheco. He missed a combined ten games with a rib injury and a broken fibula. The previous season, he was sidelined for three games with a sprained shoulder. Once he returned from injury last year in Week 13, he looked like a shell of himself. We should easily toss those numbers out for Pacheco, as he was clearly not fully healthy, and he failed to play more than 46% of the snaps in any game for the rest of the season (including the playoffs). We got an abbreviated look at their plan for him last year when he opened the season with an 80% snap share and 17 touches (78 total yards). The Chiefs could return to this model with Pacheco being their bell cow, but I doubt that is what happens. The team resigned Kareem Hunt and brought in Elijah Mitchell and Brashard Smith. Each player offers a different skill set and could play a role for the team in 2025. Pacheco could be the lead of a committee approach for the backfield this season. It's tough to consider him as anything more than an RB3 or flex play, but RB2 upside is still here.

With 35-year-old Travis Kelce now in the twilight of his career, his numbers have begun to slip. His 8.5 yards per catch and 1.49 yards per route run in 2024 were career lows, and Kelce's TD total last season (3) was his lowest since a rookie season in which he played one game. Still, Kelce had 97 catches for 823 yards in 16 games and finished TE5 in PPR scoring despite the touchdown shortage. Kelce will turn 36 in October and is no longer the same player who finished TE1 in fantasy scoring six times from 2016 to 2022. But Kelce has a strong rapport with Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes, and Kelce's 2024 reception and yardage totals suggest there's still gas in the tank.

Marquise "Hollywood" Brown had a lost 2024 season due to a shoulder injury but returned in Week 16 and immediately saw strong usage in the Chiefs' offense. From Week 16 on, he posted a 29% target rate - top-10 among WRs - and a 28% air yards share, signaling Kansas City still views him as a key piece. The production didn't follow (14 catches, 141 yards, 0 TDs), but the opportunity was promising. With Rashee Rice recovering from injury and facing a possible suspension, and Travis Kelce approaching age 36, Brown could take on a larger role than expected in 2025.

Smith was another talented victim of this deep running back class. He dropped all the way to the seventh round of the NFL Draft, which was surprising. The Chiefs added him to their already overstocked backfield. The Chiefs are no strangers to allowing a seventh-round running back a legit shot at starting (hi, Isiah Pacheco), so we can't say that Smith has zero shot. I was enamored with Smith's receiving ability as a converted wide receiver, his lightning quickness, and his possible upside as a rusher for a player who is still getting acclimated to the position. Last year, Smith ranked 34th in breakaway percentage, second in receiving grade, and 22nd in yards per route run (per PFF). Smith's skill set is different from every other back in this depth chart. He could easily carve out a stand-alone role as Kansas City's new Jerick McKinnon.