Fantasy Football Player Notes

Kenneth Walker arrives in Kansas City as the Chiefs' new lead back. Walker had a disappointing season in 2025 from a fantasy standpoint as the RB28 in fantasy points per game, but it's easy to see why it unfolded that way. Walker had to split the passing game usage with Zach Charbonnet, and he was shown the cold shoulder by Seattle in the red zone. Last year, Walker had a 31.9% route share versus Charbonnet's 34.7% route share (per Fantasy Points Data). In the games that Charbonnet was active, Walker saw only 34.8% of the running back red zone rushing work (30 red zone carries versus Charbonnet's 51). With a lucrative contract signed and delivered for Walker, I don't see him missing out on the high usage boat in 2026. Talent isn't the problem for Walker; it was just the way that Seattle deployed him. Last year, Walker ranked second in explosive run rate, first in missed tackle rate, ninth in yards per route run, and 12th in first downs per route run. He was a per-touch efficiency marvel. I don't foresee him being a true bellcow with Kansas City, and I don't want that because he has dealt with injury issues in the past. With his salivating mix of talent and efficiency, Walker should be an explosive RB1 in 2026.

Rashee Rice had another "interesting offseason" where he had a knee scope and spent some time rehabbing from that procedure in a jail cell. Rice hasn't played more than eight games in a season since 2023, so while he has been very productive when he's been on the field over the last two seasons, we still haven't seen him available for a full calendar of football since that season. Last year, when he was on the field, Rice remained a target hog with a 26.2% target share (12th among 109 qualifying receivers), averaging 71.4 receiving yards per game (tenth), producing 2.28 yards per route run (15th), and churning out 0.112 first downs per route run with a 31.9% first-read share (both 14th-best, per Fantasy Points Data). If Rice can stay healthy and out of trouble off the field this season, he should return strong WR2 value with upside.

Patrick Mahomes saw his season end in Week 15 last year with a torn ACL. Prior to that horrible injury, he was the QB2 in fantasy points per game. Last year, he averaged a career-high 6.6 rushing attempts per game and 30.1 rushing yards per game. He was first in scrambles per game and 14th in red zone carries per game among quarterbacks. I don't expect those numbers to repeat this season coming off the ACL injury. Mahomes will work from the pocket more in 2026, especially to open the season. Last year, outside of the immense passing volume he saw, it was an uninspiring year for Mahomes as an accurate passer. Among 38 qualifying passers, he was 18th in yards per attempt, 24th in adjusted completion rate, 16th in highly accurate throw rate, and 30th in catchable target rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Mahomes should return strong QB1 numbers again in 2026 based upon volume alone, but I won't be surprised if he regresses back into the low-end QB1 territory that he lived in 2023-2024 (QB11, QB10).

At this point in his career, we know what to expect out of Travis Kelce. He's a low-end TE1, and that's fine, but I don't see a path for him returning to top 3-5 status for 2026. Over the last two years, he has been the TE9 and TE7 in fantasy points per game. Yes, the Chiefs will remain a pass-first offense, but it's fair to question when we'll see Patrick Mahomes play in 2026 and what version of him will be under center. Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL, and that cast of pass-catching characters at his disposal didn't change a ton this offseason, which isn't great. Travis Kelce's per-route efficiency screams that he's on the back nine of his career. Last year, among 59 qualifying tight ends, Kelce was 19th in yards per route run, 18th in yards after the catch per reception, and 16th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Those aren't damning numbers, but they aren't anything more than solid and just illuminate the point again that Kelce doesn't have the juice to put up elite per-route metrics anymore to vault him back into the top 3-5 conversation. Kelce will likely post another solid season as a low-end TE1 in 2026.

I had zero interest in drafting Xavier Worthy for fantasy purposes last year, and I don't have any in 2026. Last year, he finished as the WR54 in fantasy points per game with only one week as a top-24 wide receiver in weekly scoring. Last year, after returning from a shoulder injury (Weeks 4-17), he only had a 15.8% target share, 1.40 yards per route run, 40.9 receiving yards per game, a 19.5% first-read share, 0.058 first downs per route run, and 8.5 PPR points per game (per Fantasy Points Data). I'll happily avoid Worthy in drafts again this year. If it burns me, it burns me (I don't think it will).

The Chiefs selected Emmett Johnson in the fifth round of the NFL Draft. He arrives in Kansas City after a final season in college, where he ranked sixth in missed tackles forced and 52nd in yards per route run and elusive rating (per PFF). Johnson has three-down ability in the NFL after lining up in the slot or out wide with 18% of his snaps in 2025. He's a strong handcuff who should earn the RB2 role for the team behind Kenneth Walker, in short order.

The Chiefs have the third-easiest schedule to start the year (easiest through first four weeks). Gives ample time for Patrick Mahomes to be brought up to speed (also has a bye in Week 5) and for the defense to prove it's worth. KC added to its defensive line this offseason but lost key secondary pieces, suggesting they face a surplus of pass attempts in 2026. They also finished 30th in opponent fumbles and last in non-offensive TDs (0). Week 1 is at home versus Denver, followed by matchups versus Indy, Miami and Las Vegas.

Harrison Butker has become a less dependable fantasy kicker in recent years. It's not because Butker has been substantially less accurate. It's because the Kansas City offense has been scoring fewer touchdowns in recent years, giving Butker fewer freebie extra points. In Butker's first five seasons, from 2017 to 2021, he averaged 3.0 extra points per game. In 2022 and 2023, Butker averaged 2.5 extra points per game. In 2024 and 2025, Butker averaged 2.0 extra points a game. Butker's yearly finished in fantasy points per game among kickers: second, sixth, second, 13th, ninth, 20th, 10th, 26th, 15th. The Chiefs offense might not be among the NFL's most explosive in 2026 with Patrick Mahomes coming off a major knee injury. Consider Butker a second-tier kicker option.

Tyquan Thornton re-signed with the Chiefs on a two-year deal worth $11 million. This is notable given that only Xavier Worthy and Jalen Royals were the other Chiefs WRs under contract for the 2027 season.
The speedy wide receiver had his most productive season in the NFL last year, catching 19 passes for 438 yards and three touchdowns (on nearly 1,000 air yards and 23 deep targets). He stepped up at the start of the year due to Worthy's injury and Rashee Rice's suspension. Over the first 5 weeks of the year, Thornton averaged 10.3 fantasy points per game.
His 2025 yardage and touchdown totals set new career-highs, and he averaged 23.1 yards per reception (first in the NFL). Also had zero recorded drops.

Cyrus Allen might be one of the more interesting deep sleeper receivers from the 2026 class after landing in Kansas City. The former Bearcats wideout has quietly produced everywhere he has played, showcasing strong target-earning ability, separation skills, and positional versatility across multiple stops. With long-term uncertainty surrounding several Chiefs pass-catchers, Allen has a realistic pathway to eventually carving out a meaningful role in the offense. He remains a long-shot Day 3 prospect for redraft leagues, but dynasty managers looking for cheap upside should keep him firmly on the radar.