Fantasy Football Player Notes

TreVeyon Henderson probably isn't cut out to be an NFL workhorse. He never had more than 183 carries in any of his three seasons at Ohio State. Henderson split work with Quinshon Judkins in his final college season and didn't have more than 12 carries in any game last fall. But Henderson is a sensational playmaker capable of making hay on 12-15 touches a game à la James Cook. Henderson has big-time speed, sports car acceleration and quick feet. He changes direction with minimal loss of speed, and his cutbacks are jaw-dropping. He's useful in the passing game (11.1 yards per catch over his college career) and deadly on screens. After taking Henderson in the second round of the draft, the Patriots are likely to use him as part of a tag team with Rhamondre Stevenson. But with Henderson's playmaking ability, he's the favorite to lead New England in carries this season.

Rhamondre Stevenson may have peaked with his 1,040-yard rushing season in 2022. He missed five games in 2023, and his 2024 season was a disappointment. Stevenson averaged a career-low 3.9 yards per carry last season, and his seven fumbles cost him some playing time. Now, the Patriots have added playmaking RB TreVeyon Henderson, a second-round draft pick. A 50/50 workload split might be the best Stevenson investors could hope for in 2025.

Drake Maye made the best he could last year with a pitiful supporting cast. His offensive line was patchwork at best, and arguably, his top two pass catchers were Hunter Henry and Demario Douglas. Despite all of this, in the nine games Maye played at least 90% of the snaps, he averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game, which would have placed him as the QB11 last year. In those contests, he averaged. 36.8 rushing yards per game, which would have ranked fifth among quarterbacks last season. Overall, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Maye ranked 27th in yards per attempt, 17th in CPOE, 11th in highly accurate throw rate, 18th in hero throw rate, and had the 13th-highest turnover-worthy throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). The rushing output will factor in heavily this season for Maye and his fantasy outlook. The additions of Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, Kyle Williams, offensive line help, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels can only help Maye in 2025. He's a strong QB2 who could finish as a QB1 this season.

Stefon Diggs tore his ACL last October, which is why he's a relative afterthought in early 2025 fantasy drafts, his ADP sitting in WR4 range. Diggs says he's ahead of schedule in his recovery and is trying to be ready for Week 1. Dr. Deepak Chona, a well-regarded sports injury analyst, believes there's a two-thirds chance that Diggs will be good to go for Week 1, and that Diggs will be at 90% of full capacity about a month into the season. Diggs is immediately going to become Drake Maye's No. 1 receiver in New England. Before his injury-shortened 2024 season, Diggs had topped 1,000 yards in six straight seasons, and he was on a 1,000-yard pace when he got hurt last year. He may not be the same player he was in 2020, when he had 127 catches and 1535 yards and helped Josh Allen make the jump from promising young QB to superstar, but can he be a top-25 receiver? I believe he can be, which is why Diggs is one of my favorite draft targets.

Hunter Henry is a wonderful late-round tight-end target this season if you're looking to punt the position in 2025. Last year, in Drake Maye's full starts, he had a 19.2% target share, averaged 49.9 receiving yards per game, had 1.70 yards per route run, a 22.7% first-read share, and 0.098 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). I'll also add on top that he averaged 11.3 PPR points per game in that sample. Last year, among all tight ends with 25 targets, those marks would have ranked seventh, sixth, 14th, fifth, eighth, and the points per game production would have made him the TE8 in fantasy. Yes, since that time, New England added Stefon Diggs and Kyle Williams to the passing equation, but that doesn't mean that Henry still can't emerge in 2025 as Maye's number two option in the passing offense and flirt with TE1 output.

Kyle Williams hive stand up! Williams gained a lot of traction in the fantasy community in the predraft process, with plenty of people hyping up the former Washington State late breakout. I remain a tad below consensus on Williams. Williams didn't surpass 900 receiving yards or 2.25 yards per route run in any collegiate season until 2024 (per PFF). The hope for the Patriots' third-round draft pick is that he can avoid faceplanting like Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker did last year. He'll need to hop Mack Hollins, DeMario Douglas, Kayshon Boutte, and Kendrick Bourne to see the field in 2025 as a full-time starter. He's a late-round flier only right now until we get more clarity about his spot in the pecking order in training camp and the preseason.

Demario Douglas is a low-end dice roll receiver in the later rounds this season. He was a flex-viable player at times last season. In his ten full games with Drake Maye starting, he had a 16.3% target share, 1.67 yards per route run, a 19.7% first-read share, and 0.079 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Nothing jumps off the page there, but he did manage three top 36 wide receiver finishes in those ten contests despite only managing five red zone targets. If Maye takes a big step forward in 2025, Douglas is likely coming along for the ride as a bye-week flex option.

Against a brutal schedule, New England ranked 30th in takeaways in 2024. They were a straight-up dumpster fire. But with Mike Vrabel taking over as head coach, we should expect a completely different unit in 2025. They revamped the defense in free agency and boast the second-easiest schedule in the NFL on forecasted Vegas win totals.
They open against the Raiders at home, followed by an early road trip to Miami and then back-to-back home games versus Carolina and Pittsburgh. The Pats D/ST is probably a strong bet to be a reliable unit, given the ease of schedule in addition to the personnel improvements they made this offseason. The Pats were 13th in passes defended last season, but they came away with just 7 interceptions (bottom-5). They also ranked 27th in opponent fumbles. Turnovers should regress in their favor in 2025.