Touchdown Regression Report
2025 Season - Running Backs - Weeks 1 to 17
What is touchdown regression?
While touchdowns are an important part of fantasy scoring, they're also highly variable from year-to-year. A high or low touchdown total isn’t typically predictive of future performance, as these players will often regress towards the mean (or average) the following year.
Rankings in our Touchdown Regression report are generated by calculating a league-average touchdown rate for attempts and targets in each area of the field, and applying these averages to each player to see which players may be due for some touchdown regression.
| Actual | Adjusted | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player (Team) | GAMES | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | RANK | RecTD% | RuTD% | PTS. | ADJ. RANK | RANK DIFF |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 16 | 5.43% | 3.22% | 356.9 | 1 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 333.5 | 1 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 16 | 3.64% | 5.57% | 334.4 | 2 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 281.5 | 3 | -1 |
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 16 | 3.88% | 2.44% | 325.5 | 3 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 328.3 | 2 | +1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) | 16 | 5.32% | 5.35% | 309.6 | 4 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 265.5 | 5 | -1 |
| De'Von Achane (MIA) | 16 | 4.71% | 3.36% | 289.3 | 5 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 277.1 | 4 | +1 |
| James Cook III (BUF) | 16 | 5.00% | 3.88% | 284.2 | 6 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 264.5 | 6 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry (BAL) | 16 | 0.00% | 5.21% | 259.4 | 7 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 220.4 | 9 | -2 |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 16 | 6.00% | 3.86% | 235.7 | 8 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 211.8 | 11 | -3 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. (JAC) | 16 | 11.54% | 2.69% | 231.6 | 9 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 208.6 | 12 | -3 |
| Chase Brown (CIN) | 16 | 5.68% | 2.59% | 231.1 | 10 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 226.8 | 7 | +3 |
| Javonte Williams (DAL) | 16 | 3.92% | 4.37% | 225.3 | 11 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 203.4 | 15 | -4 |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 15 | 2.27% | 5.56% | 219.1 | 12 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 186.6 | 17 | -5 |
| Saquon Barkley (PHI) | 16 | 4.00% | 2.50% | 213.8 | 13 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 221.0 | 8 | +5 |
| Ashton Jeanty (LV) | 16 | 6.85% | 1.88% | 206.7 | 14 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 203.7 | 14 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift (CHI) | 15 | 2.08% | 4.04% | 206.3 | 15 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 194.3 | 16 | -1 |
| Rico Dowdle (CAR) | 16 | 2.00% | 2.54% | 194.8 | 16 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 204.1 | 13 | +3 |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 16 | 2.08% | 1.65% | 189.7 | 17 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 213.6 | 10 | +7 |
| Jaylen Warren (PIT) | 15 | 4.44% | 2.84% | 184.7 | 18 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 180.6 | 18 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey (DEN) | 16 | 8.62% | 4.76% | 179.3 | 19 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 141.5 | 25 | -6 |
| TreVeyon Henderson (NE) | 16 | 2.38% | 5.00% | 171.4 | 20 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 162.1 | 22 | -2 |
| Kenneth Gainwell (PIT) | 16 | 3.53% | 4.39% | 167.4 | 21 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 159.6 | 23 | -2 |
| Tony Pollard (TEN) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.07% | 161.3 | 22 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 180.6 | 19 | +3 |
| Kenneth Walker III (SEA) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.26% | 161.1 | 23 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 175.0 | 20 | +3 |
| Quinshon Judkins (CLE) | 14 | 0.00% | 3.04% | 156.8 | 24 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 164.1 | 21 | +3 |
| Zach Charbonnet (SEA) | 15 | 0.00% | 6.52% | 154.2 | 25 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 122.9 | 30 | -5 |
| David Montgomery (HOU) | 16 | 0.00% | 5.06% | 148.9 | 26 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 133.9 | 28 | -2 |
| Woody Marks (HOU) | 15 | 8.33% | 1.02% | 133.3 | 27 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 143.9 | 24 | +3 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) | 16 | 0.00% | 4.57% | 132.9 | 28 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 117.4 | 36 | -8 |
| Kyle Monangai (CHI) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.94% | 132.3 | 29 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 137.9 | 26 | +3 |
| Kareem Hunt (KC) | 16 | 4.00% | 4.91% | 131.4 | 30 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 110.6 | 39 | -9 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) | 13 | 5.26% | 5.38% | 128.5 | 31 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 121.7 | 32 | -1 |
| Omarion Hampton (LAC) | 9 | 2.86% | 3.23% | 119.7 | 32 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 119.1 | 33 | -1 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG) | 14 | 4.17% | 1.14% | 118.9 | 33 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 137.4 | 27 | +6 |
| Rachaad White (TB) | 16 | 0.00% | 3.03% | 117.9 | 34 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 125.0 | 29 | +5 |
| Cam Skattebo (NYG) | 8 | 6.25% | 4.95% | 115.7 | 35 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 98.3 | 43 | -8 |
| Tyler Allgeier (ATL) | 16 | 0.00% | 5.59% | 113.6 | 36 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 93.4 | 45 | -9 |
| Bucky Irving (TB) | 9 | 8.57% | 0.58% | 113.2 | 37 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 122.5 | 31 | +6 |
| Jordan Mason (MIN) | 15 | 0.00% | 3.77% | 112.5 | 38 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 106.4 | 41 | -3 |
| Blake Corum (LAR) | 16 | 0.00% | 4.14% | 110.8 | 39 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 101.7 | 42 | -3 |
| J.K. Dobbins (DEN) | 10 | 0.00% | 2.61% | 110.4 | 40 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 117.4 | 35 | +5 |
| Kimani Vidal (LAC) | 12 | 4.55% | 1.94% | 108.4 | 41 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 116.5 | 37 | +4 |
| Chuba Hubbard (CAR) | 14 | 7.69% | 0.75% | 107.7 | 42 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 114.4 | 38 | +4 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 12 | 2.44% | 1.52% | 104.7 | 43 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 118.7 | 34 | +9 |
| Devin Singletary (NYG) | 16 | 0.00% | 4.20% | 89.2 | 44 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 89.1 | 49 | -5 |
| Sean Tucker (TB) | 16 | 9.09% | 8.14% | 87.8 | 45 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 57.0 | 60 | -15 |
| Alvin Kamara (NO) | 11 | 0.00% | 0.76% | 84.2 | 46 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 109.7 | 40 | +6 |
| Tyjae Spears (TEN) | 12 | 0.00% | 2.78% | 83.0 | 47 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 91.7 | 47 | 0 |
| Bam Knight (ARI) | 12 | 3.23% | 4.88% | 81.9 | 48 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 72.8 | 51 | -3 |
| Nick Chubb (HOU) | 15 | 0.00% | 2.46% | 81.8 | 49 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 90.1 | 48 | +1 |
| Emanuel Wilson (GB) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.40% | 81.7 | 50 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 86.5 | 50 | 0 |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 13 | 3.85% | 0.85% | 77.8 | 51 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 92.5 | 46 | +5 |
| Michael Carter (ARI) | 12 | 0.00% | 1.09% | 77.1 | 52 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 94.6 | 44 | +8 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. (WAS) | 12 | 0.00% | 5.36% | 75.7 | 53 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 64.1 | 57 | -4 |
| Bhayshul Tuten (JAC) | 14 | 14.29% | 6.02% | 75.3 | 54 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 56.3 | 61 | -7 |
| Ty Johnson (BUF) | 16 | 6.06% | 6.00% | 69.7 | 55 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 64.2 | 56 | -1 |
| Dylan Sampson (CLE) | 14 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 65.7 | 56 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 70.7 | 52 | +4 |
| Samaje Perine (CIN) | 14 | 0.00% | 3.57% | 62.7 | 57 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 61.9 | 58 | -1 |
| Isaiah Davis (NYJ) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.33% | 60.7 | 58 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 67.8 | 53 | +5 |
| Jeremy McNichols (WAS) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.27% | 58.6 | 59 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 66.1 | 54 | +5 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. (SF) | 16 | 0.00% | 2.17% | 57.6 | 60 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 64.5 | 55 | +5 |
| Devin Neal (NO) | 9 | 0.00% | 3.51% | 51.5 | 61 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 53.6 | 62 | -1 |
| Keaton Mitchell (BAL) | 12 | 0.00% | 1.69% | 50.7 | 62 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 57.5 | 59 | +3 |
| Ollie Gordon II (MIA) | 16 | 11.11% | 4.29% | 49.0 | 63 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 37.8 | 70 | -7 |
| Emari Demercado (ARI) | 12 | 5.00% | 0.00% | 45.6 | 64 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 50.9 | 63 | +1 |
| Brashard Smith (KC) | 16 | 2.86% | 0.00% | 44.0 | 65 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 49.6 | 64 | +1 |
| Jaylen Wright (MIA) | 10 | 0.00% | 2.86% | 42.7 | 66 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 42.6 | 66 | 0 |
| Malik Davis (DAL) | 10 | 0.00% | 3.85% | 39.6 | 67 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 38.2 | 69 | -2 |
| Tank Bigsby (PHI) | 15 | 0.00% | 3.17% | 35.2 | 68 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 38.5 | 68 | 0 |
| Ray Davis (BUF) | 16 | 15.38% | 0.00% | 34.7 | 69 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 37.6 | 71 | -2 |
| Kendre Miller (NO) | 7 | 0.00% | 2.13% | 30.8 | 70 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 34.4 | 74 | -4 |
| Zavier Scott (MIN) | 10 | 6.25% | 0.00% | 30.0 | 71 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 32.1 | 76 | -5 |
| James Conner (ARI) | 4 | 11.11% | 3.13% | 29.3 | 72 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 24.9 | 83 | -11 |
| Audric Estime (NO) | 6 | 0.00% | 2.17% | 29.0 | 73 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 29.1 | 78 | -5 |
| Trey Benson (ARI) | 5 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 28.9 | 74 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 37.2 | 72 | +2 |
| Jawhar Jordan (HOU) | 3 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 25.9 | 75 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 34.2 | 75 | 0 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin (DEN) | 7 | 0.00% | 2.70% | 23.1 | 76 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 23.6 | 84 | -8 |
| Chris Brooks (GB) | 16 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 20.1 | 77 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 25.8 | 82 | -5 |
| Jaret Patterson (LAC) | 5 | 0.00% | 2.44% | 19.0 | 78 | nan% | 3.10% | 19.1 | 88 | -10 |
| Raheim Sanders (CLE) | 4 | 0.00% | 3.70% | 15.0 | 79 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 13.6 | 97 | -18 |
| Kaleb Johnson (PIT) | 10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 8.3 | 80 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 13.9 | 96 | -16 |
| Jaydon Blue (DAL) | 4 | 0.00% | 2.63% | 7.5 | 81 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 11.8 | 102 | -21 |
| DJ Giddens (IND) | 8 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 6.6 | 82 | 3.05% | 3.10% | 10.3 | 105 | -23 |
