If you are in a league that utilizes PPR scoring, it is important to know which players are more valuable in these leagues compared to standard scoring leagues. FantasyGuru.com shares with us their “PPR gold” picks for the 2013 season.
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The purpose of this article is to simply recognize those players whose values are noticeably higher in the PPR format than in standard scoring leagues. We’ll take a detailed look look at running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, in that order.
Running Backs
Blatantly Obvious PPR Studs
Arian Foster (Hou)
Obvious PPR Studs
Darren Sproles (NO) – This article was made for Sproles, who has 161 catches over the last two seasons against 135 rush attempts. While some fantasy players remain leery of Sproles’ sustainability with so few touches, he has 2224 yards from scrimmage over his 29 games with New Orleans, an average of 76.7 YPG. By comparison, Alfred Morris, the NFL’s second-leading rusher, had 105.2 YPG last season, about 3.0 FPG ahead of Sproles on yards alone. But in a PPR, Sproles more than closes that gap with 5.5 RPG over the last two seasons (Morris had only 11 receptions all year). Additionally, with the Saints, Sproles has 14 receiving TDs the last two seasons. No other RB has more than 6. It’s clear he’s a unique weapon in the NFL, and a guy who is more than worthy of a 2nd-round pick in PPR formats. In fact, he’s often a value because some owners don’t find his production sustainable. In a PPR, Sproles makes every touch count. Oh, and he’s about to get the most creative play-caller in the NFL back on his sideline this year with the return of HC Sean Payton.
Reggie Bush (Det) – It might seem odd to include Bush in this article, given his production with Miami the last couple of seasons. In 31 games with the Dolphins, Bush averaged 2.5 receptions and 3.3 targets per game. In 60 games with the Saints, Bush averaged 4.9 receptions and 6.7 targets per game, nearly double the receiving production. But we also must point out that Bush had exactly the same rushing total (2083 yards) in two seasons with Miami that he had in five seasons with the Saints. In Detroit, we’re expecting more of a balance, as head coach Jim Schwartz has said this off-season that he feels Bush is better utilized in space (“on his terms,” as Schwartz put it). The Lions still don’t have great WR depth behind Calvin Johnson, so Bush will be a nice safety valve for QB Matthew Stafford. The only real question we have with Bush this year is durability, and it is a legit concern. Otherwise, if he plays 14-16 games, 75+ catches seem like a lock.
Matt Forte (Chi) – Forte has flat-out said he expects to catch more passes this season, telling ESPN Chicago that new coach Marc Trestman has been impressed with his route running on film. We already know Forte is a skilled pass-catcher from his past, and we already know that Trestman loves to get the ball to his RBs in space. Not only has this been a big part of Trestman’s game-planning in the CFL, but he did it in the NFL as well. In 2002, when Trestman was the Raiders’ offensive coordinator, RB Charlie Garner caught a whopping 91 balls for 941 yards and 4 TDs in addition to the 962 yards and 7 TDs he had on the ground. Last season, Forte had 60 targets and 44 receptions in 15 games. His 4 targets and 2.9 catches per game marked the lowest averages of his career, and down from 6.2 targets and 4.3 receptions per game in 2011. But for 2013, Forte has been learning all the receivers’ routes and should truly be the Bears’ #2 passing target in their offense. If healthy, he should easily set a career high in receptions this year, so we love him in PPR and like him a lot in all formats.
Jamaal Charles (KC) – PPR owners shouldn’t be worried about Andy Reid’s arrival in Kansas City. In fact, they should be thrilled. Charles said in June that Reid’s offense “might be the best thing that ever happened” to him, according to the Kansas City Star. Charles anticipates having a huge role in the Chief passing game this season, and it’s easy to see why: Charles has averaged 3.3 targets per game in his career, compared to former Reid RB LeSean McCoy’s 4.8. QB Alex Smith is a smart QB who will take advantage of check-downs when he needs to, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see Charles have some games in which he offsets low-ish carry totals with 6 or 7 receptions. Plus, the pistol elements the Chiefs are expected to employ will create even more space for him. Reid this year will resume the play-calling duties in his offense, something he hasn’t done in about five years. Right around the last time he was calling plays in Philly, RB Brian Westbrook was the #2 RB in fantasy football and put up 278/1333/7 rushing and 90/771/5 in the passing game. If you’re wondering about Charles’ upside if everything goes well in KC this year, look no further than Westbrook’s monster 2007 season.
C.J. Spiller (Buf) – Spiller’s numbers had kind of a “Reggie Bush in Miami” effect last season. While his overall touches rose to 250 in 2012 from 146 in 2011, only 17.2% of his touches in 2012 were on receptions (43), while 26.7% of them in 2011 came on passes (39). With Spiller’s role in the running game expected to increase in 2013, as both he and coach Doug Marrone have said, Spiller might not approach having a quarter of his touches come through the air. But it’s clear the Bills plan to make Spiller the focal point of their offense, whether Kevin Kolb or EJ Manuel is taking the snaps. Spiller even expects to line up in the slot at points this year, he told NFL Network in an interview. He might not be a 70-catch guy, but his receiving upside, combined with an expected increase in carries, could push him into the top half of the 1st round in PPR drafts.
Ray Rice (Bal) – In some drafts, including PPR drafts, Rice has been passed by some of the more chic picks, like the aforementioned C.J. Spiller and Jamaal Charles. While the presence of Bernard Pierce remains a concern for Rice’s touches in 2013, perhaps a bigger threat than Fred Jackson to Spiller, Rice’s consistency has been hard to argue. Since becoming a full-time back in 2009, Rice has never had fewer than 61 receptions in a season. In fact, he’s posted 278/2440/6 in receiving alone over that span, meaning he’s averaged 8.7 FPG just as a receiver in PPR formats over the last four seasons. 8.7 FPG would have ranked Rice 68th among WRs and 20th among TEs last season. He might not be the “electric” pick in a PPR, but he’s consistently proven to be a safe one. Pierce is a threat to Rice’s fantasy value, but we’re not going to let his presence persuade us to ignore one of the most durable and consistent backs of the last decade. And in a PPR league, it’s worth noting the rookie Pierce had just 7 catches on a measly 11 targets.
LeSean McCoy (Phi) – McCoy had 54 catches in 12 games last season and has had as many as 78 in a single season in his NFL career. We know he can catch the ball. The only thing that doesn’t make him a slam-dunk option for the purposes of this article is that we don’t really know what new coach Chip Kelly is going to do with the run/screen game. While there could be monster upside for McCoy in the offense, there’s also the chance that Bryce Brown takes a lot of touches and caps his fantasy potential. But the history suggests that McCoy (4.8 targets per game in his career) will still manage to get his in a PPR league. That makes him an awesome late 1st-round pick in PPR leagues.
Upside PPR Options
Trent Richardson (Cle) – Believe it or not, only six RBs caught more passes than Richardson last season. And only two of those backs (Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy) had more than 100 carries on the season. So it was Rice, McCoy, and a handful of specialists who caught more passes than TRich. Richardson’s health is a legitimate concern, more so than his low YPC (3.6, if you don’t believe his injuries affected that). But he was a legitimate option in the passing game for QB Brandon Weeden, and new OC Norv Turner’s offense is very friendly to check-down RBs. If Richardson proves he’s healthy in camp from his spring leg injury, and he’s expected to be full-go, he becomes really attractive in the second half of the 1st round.
Steven Jackson (Alt) – Despite Michael Turner being a total zero in the passing game, the Falcons threw to their backs more than most teams in the NFL, and they were in the top-5 in the NFL in RB targets in 2012. Yes, Jacquizz Rodgers has a lot to do with that, but the point here is that Jackson is far from a zero on passing patterns. In fact, Jackson expects to be utilized a lot in passing situations, not a shock considering the Falcons threw the ball over 60% of the time in 2012. We rarely endorse a 30-year-old back as having legit upside, but Jackson does. He is joining a team that gave Turner countless chances to score from inside the five over the last few seasons, and he’s a much more skilled receiver. We’re not calling Jackson a bona fide PPR stud because Rodgers is still a great receiver himself, but the Falcons won’t have to shuffle their backs as much as they did last year if they don’t want to.
DeMarco Murray (Dal) – In Murray’s nice 2011 rookie year, we lamented that he was underutilized in the passing game, despite great numbers in that department in college. The good news is that he improved his targets per game from 2.7 as a rookie to 4.1 in 2012. He improved his receptions per game from 2.0 as a rookie to 3.4 in 2012. The bad news is he played only 10 games in 2012, down from 13 in 2011, and he’s a guy who looks like he’ll always have “FRAGILE” stamped onto his backside. Nonetheless, he caught at least 4 balls in six of his 10 games last year, and the Cowboys throw it a ton. If he manages to beat the odds and stick on the field, he’ll produce in a PPR. He’s not a guy we’re targeting, per se, but the argument for drafting him at a good price is evident in a PPR league.
Shane Vereen (NE) – Vereen is going to be one of the most talked-about offensive players this draft season, and for good reason, given how much production the Patriots have to replace. Still, he has only 85 career touches. For the purposes of this article, let’s use some stats we’ve gathered to make our argument for Vereen in a PPR: Vereen played 13.0% of the Patriots’ offensive snaps in 2012, and Danny Woodhead played 33.9% (with 76 carries and 55 targets). It’s certainly possible that Vereen’s workload improves to around 40% in 2013. Woodhead was a solid #3 RB in a PPR last season, with 747 yards from scrimmage and 7 TDs, and Vereen could in theory have a bigger role than that. According to the Patriots’ official website, Vereen has been lining up out wide in practices to try to exploit mismatches. He might be their best player left to do that, and he could be among the key Patriot offensive contributors this year. Last year, Vereen did a lot with a little (in terms of touches). This year, he could do even more with even more touches.
Daryl Richardson (Stl) – There’s a chance that, come August 20th or so, we’re talking about Isaiah Pead or even Zac Stacy as the guy to target as the Rams’ starting RB. This may be the most open backfield competition in the NFL, and Richardson has only 122 career touches to his name, so it’s not like he’s far-and-away the favorite. However, that doesn’t mean the electric Richardson is someone to avoid, especially in a PPR. Coach Jeff Fisher specifically singled out Richardson as someone whom the team needs to make a focus. “We have to get the ball to him in the passing game,” Fisher said. “Any time we can get Daryl the ball in space, it’s going to put added pressure on the other team.” He might not be a stud, but he could have some nice flex value in a PPR, even if he isn’t the “starter.” And when he gets to the perimeter, he has a chance to be among the more dangerous backs in the NFL. He had a decent 67% catch rate and was in the top-30 last year as a rookie in RB targets.
Receiving Specialists
Jacquizz Rodgers (Atl) – It’s entirely possible that Rodgers’ snaps go down in 2013, as the Falcons transition to Steven Jackson at RB. Remember, Rodgers played only 11 fewer offensive snaps than Michael Turner a season ago, given Turner’s total ineptitude in passing downs. That meant Rodgers caught 53 passes in 2012 (4th-most among RBs), even though he didn’t totally take hold of the chance to become the Falcons’ full-time back like the coaching staff may have wanted. Rodgers himself has admitted this off-season that he’s aware the balanced Jackson could cut into his offensive snaps, but ultimately Jackson is still in the twilight of his career. Rodgers’ carry totals may fall (94 last season), but he’s a nice receiver at his position – his 89.8% catch rate last season was absurd, and no other RB with 50 targets even came close to that number, so he’s still viable in a PPR.
Danny Woodhead (SD) – With the addition of Woodhead and the re-signing of Ronnie Brown, do you think the new Charger regime trusts Ryan Mathews on third downs? Between Woodhead and Brown, the Chargers have a combined 89 catches from 2012, and two players who have made names for themselves on third downs. But it’s Woodhead who figures to have the bigger rotational role, given he was specifically brought in by this regime. And in a PPR league, he’s been effective, finishing 33rd at the position last season and as high as 27th in 2010. In off-season camps, Charger reporters for the Union-Tribune San Diego have noted how much more comfortable Woodhead looks than Mathews in obvious passing situations. He could have a lot of value as a dump-off option for QB Philip Rivers, especially behind this poor offensive line. Woodhead might have to beat out Brown for snaps, which is an issue (Brown caught 49 passes himself last season), but we’ll give the younger and faster Woodhead the edge. Keep in mind the Chargers were 2nd in the league in RB targets behind only the Saints, so there should be plenty of targets for Woodhead.
Pierre Thomas (NO) – Thomas is a human flex player. In 2012, he played just over a third of the Saints’ snaps (34.7%), rushing 105 times for 473 yards and a TD, with 39/354/1 on 53 targets. He finished 36th among RBs in a PPR with 8.9 FPG, meaning he was a #3 RB for fantasy purposes. This year, the Saints are expected to try to run the ball more with Sean Payton back in the fold, but as always, Thomas bridges the gap nicely between Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles. And it’s the receiving ability that makes him viable for fantasy. He has 89 catches on 112 targets the last two seasons, and his 2.9 receptions per game over that span mean he’s always a solid option for a few cheap points when you’re in a bye week or injury bind. He’s a depth guy, but a good one in a PPR.
Giovani Bernard (Cin) – Bernard is really interesting. If we’re basing analysis solely off his ADP at publication (7/10, but we’ll update this article periodically in August), he could be a monster steal or a major reach in the 6th round of a 12-team draft. There’s no doubt he’s more talented than BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and in a PPR league Bernard’s perceived versatility would have a whole lot of appeal. We asked him at the combine what his biggest asset was, and he said it was his versatility. In fact, the Bengals have been lining him up in the slot and out wide in spring practices, something that we’ll be monitoring in training camp and the preseason. But we still have to be convinced that OC Jay Gruden, never among our favorite play-callers, can properly use him. In other words, at this point, we view Bernard as someone who could be an effective role player, completely underutilized, or the Bengals’ eventual starting RB this season (RB coach Hue Jackson is adamant that Bernard can be a three-down player in the near future). We’ll have a better idea of which deeper into the summer.
Watch List
Note: The “Watch List” contains players who could move into another category – or fall off the list entirely – depending on what happens in training camp and the preseason.
Marcel Reece (Oak) – Here are the running backs who caught more passes than Reece last season: Darren Sproles, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Jacquizz Rodgers. Here are the backs who had more receiving yards than Reece last season: Sproles. Yeah, that’s it. As the Raiders’ most versatile and underappreciated player, Reece played FB, RB, H-back, and even some WR en route to 52/496/1 receiving. Reece was actually the most effective back in the Raider offense in 2012, ranking 12th among RBs with 13.3 FPG with Darren McFadden hurt between Weeks Ten and Twelve, with over 100 yards from scrimmage in each of those games, despite entering that stretch with a grand total of one carry on the season up until that point. While the Raiders added an intriguing backup RB in Latavius Murray in this year’s draft, Reece can handle a lot of the third-down work, and he could be a sneaky-good flex in the event of an injury. Let’s see how new OC Greg Olson uses him in the preseason, but it appears the Raiders continue to be fond of him.
Le’Veon Bell (Pit) – Bell certainly isn’t Darren Sproles, but one of the things that stood out to us on tape was that he’s a pretty damn smooth pass-catcher for someone who has been kind of pigeonholed as a two-down bruiser. He caught 67 passes over the last two seasons at Michigan State, and if he can prove his worth in pass-pro he could be a true three-down back as a rookie. That’s certainly projecting him a bit, and it might be a little unfair, but the Steelers drafted him to start. We’re merely pointing out that he may not be the slouch in the passing game many seem to think he will be. With both Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer – both bigger backs with little upside in the passing game – failing to haul in even 20 passes with extensive playing time last year, an active role in the passing offense is there for the taking for Bell.
Bilal Powell (NYJ) – Powell is a guy to watch this summer because he’s not even guaranteed to make the Jets’ roster, but the legal problems with Mike Goodson could force him into a pretty important role. Powell is no stud, as Goodson is far more explosive on the perimeter and presumed starter Chris Ivory is a significantly better power runner. But Goodson is dealing with the aforementioned weapons charges, and both Goodson and Ivory have had serious durability issues in their careers. At the least, Powell was more effective than Shonn Greene at times last year, and he could give Rex Ryan and company a balanced, if not exciting, option in the event Goodson and/or Ivory becomes unavailable. Although his catch rate for the season was a miserable 47.2% (keep in mind the Jets were horrendous on offense), he did improve greatly in the second half of the season and posted a solid 68.4% catch rate. He was able to average a very serviceable 8.2 yards per catch on his 17 grabs in 2012. That’s in addition to his solid goal line work. Powell had five carries inside the 10 yard line last year, and he scored on three of those carries. If he got the ball inside the 5 in 2012, he scored a TD.
Ronnie Hillman (Den) – There are mixed reviews on Hillman. He had trouble getting on the field last season because of pass pro and ball security issues, and when he did get on the field he didn’t jump off the page (although he did improve as the season went on). That said, he’s younger than some rookies, and he was running as the Broncos’ #1 back in OTAs ahead of Montee Ball and Knowshon Moreno, but while we don’t expect him to stick there, it bodes well for him that the Broncos appeared to be getting him ready for a larger role in 2013. The Broncos clearly drafted Ball to be their #1 of the future, but will he be the #1 of the present? That’s the question that Hillman can help answer, one way or the other, during camp and the preseason. If the Broncos go with a committee approach, Hillman’s receiving ability could help him become a real asset on third downs if he can convince Peyton Manning his protection issues are cleaned up. On the downside, if he’s not up to par as a pass protector, Denver has alternatives in the veteran Moreno and the rookie Ball.
Joique Bell (Det) – Bell is going to be one of the more interesting players seemingly buried on a depth chart to follow this preseason. Remember, this is a guy who caught 52 passes for 485 yards last season. Only four RBs caught more passes, and only two had more receiving yards. While Reggie Bush will certainly cut into Bell’s overall impact, the assumption has been that Mikel Leshoure is a shoo-in to be the #2 behind Bush. It doesn’t appear the Lions see it that way yet. Bell isn’t as good in short yardage as Leshoure, but he bests him in pretty much every other way (and to be fair, he is a big back at 220 pounds). Bush has had knee problems as recently as last season, and Leshoure has an Achilles injury on his resume, so even if Bell doesn’t beat out Leshoure as the #2 here, he’s a great handcuff for Bush. There are several paths to fantasy relevancy for Bell this year, and we’re guessing that one of them open up at some point this year.
Wide Receivers
Blatantly Obvious PPR Studs
Calvin Johnson (Det)
A.J. Green (Cin)
Dez Bryant (Dal)
Obvious PPR Studs
Brandon Marshall (Chi) – For the purposes of this article, there really doesn’t need to be much analysis beyond this: The last three seasons Marshall has played with Jay Cutler, he’s topped 100 catches, including a career-high 118 last season. Although the Bears have brought in pass-happy coach Marc Trestman to overhaul the offense, they still don’t have significant depth behind Marshall at the WR position. So presuming Marshall’s recovery from an off-season hip scope progresses as planned, there’s no reason to think he can’t approach the 100-catch mark again. His role last year was actually unhealthy because it was too large, but no matter what he’s as reliable a PPR beast as there is.
Randall Cobb (GB) – While we’re cautious with Percy Harvin and his team change, we’re totally on board with Cobb as the next great volume producer at the WR position. In fact, QB Aaron Rodgers has gone on record this off-season as saying he believes Cobb could catch 100 balls. That’s not a surprise, considering he posted 80/954/8, despite playing only 57% of the Packers’ snaps last season. With Greg Jennings gone, Cobb’s role should only increase. You can count on coach Mike McCarthy to get him the ball all over the field in a variety of ways (remember, rushing production is always a possibility here), and you can always count on a high-end talent playing for a coach who totally gets it and knows how to take advantage of his weapons. Cobb is the type of player who could haul in 10-plus catches any given week. That’s free points in a PPR.
Danny Amendola (NE) – Amendola has been a younger Wes Welker clone for a few years now, and the Patriots may need him to do even more than Welker, if that’s to be believed. With Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Aaron Hernandez, and Danny Woodhead gone, that’s a whopping 440 targets gone from Tom Brady’s arsenal last year, which is mind-numbing. And that doesn’t even factor in the question mark that is Rob Gronkowski. While he’s on a new team that might place an added focus on running the football, Amendola seems to be a total lock for 100 catches if he plays 15 or 16 games. Of course, his durability is the biggest question mark. In that case, keep an eye on Julian Edelman, who could be a great handcuff and protection for Amendola.
Reggie Wayne (Ind) – The good news for Wayne is that he’s coming off a 106-catch season in Andrew Luck’s first year with the Colts, the third 100-catch campaign for him in four seasons (he had 75 catches in 2011 with the likes of Curtis Painter at QB). The bad news is he’s working in a new offense under Pep Hamilton, and Wayne finished with a mediocre 22/250/2 over the final five games of the season. Still, we’ll take a bet that Wayne, one of the sharpest players ever at the WR position, will adjust to the new offense and will thrive in its quick-trigger nature. He’ll continue to be Luck’s primary receiver, and he’ll easily surpass 80 catches again this year.
Larry Fitzgerald (Ari) – Fitz’s situation couldn’t have played out any poorer last season, and it resulted in a career-worst season of 71/798/4. However, his prospects are looking much better heading into 2013, with a competent QB in Carson Palmer and a HC in Bruce Arians who loves to chuck it. Of course, the Cardinal offensive line is still a mess, but there are still plenty of reasons to believe Fitz can get back to his old form. Palmer’s play at quarterback will likely be the biggest factor in Fitzgerald’s chances for a bounce-back season. Palmer showed that he still had something left in the tank last season, and he did it all behind an awful offensive line in Oakland. Arians’ offense also brought Reggie Wayne to life last year after a down season with bad QB play, and he figures to cater his offense around Fitzgerald this season. Fitz is learning three different receiver positions for the upcoming year, and that’s so Arians can move him around to make sure he can get him the ball, since Arians generally loves to focus on 1-2 go-to guys in his passing attacks. Fitzgerald figures to be the go-to player in the Cardinals’ pass-happy offense, so he’s a good bet to back on track and in the 80-90 catch range once again.
Victor Cruz (NYG) – Armed with a brand-new six-year deal with about $16 million guaranteed, Cruz is going to be expected to produce. For a guy with 168 catches over the last two years, the PPR production should be there. But it is worth noting that Cruz hit a serious dry spell last season. Cruz wasn’t immune to the struggles of the Giant passing game and QB Eli Manning, and his inability to shake man coverage at times exacerbated the issues. After scoring 6 TDs in a four-game stretch from Weeks Four through Seven, Cruz ranked 40th among WRs with 11.2 FPG over the final nine games of the season. Cruz wasn’t helped with Hakeem Nicks constantly injured, but the worry is that Nicks is always injured. Still, Cruz sees most of his time from the slot, which is always a great sign for PPR Gold, and given the financial commitment the Giants made to him, we’d expect him to approach 90-100 catches yet again. We’d like to have more confidence in Nicks to take some pressure off him, but at the least Cruz has been durable. And if Nicks misses more time again, second-year man Reuben Randle should be better equipped to handle Nicks’ spot in 2013, which is good news for Cruz.
Roddy White (Atl) – Once again, the hype is on Julio Jones (and rightfully so), but note that only seven WRs caught more passes than White last season. And he plays on a team that threw the ball more than 60% of the time last year with QB Matt Ryan. Physical and versatile, White shines in the intermediate areas while still having the speed to get downfield. Oh yeah, he’s also durable as hell and he plays through pain – he has never missed a game, despite shoulder and knee issues the last two seasons. His catches fell from 115 to 100 to 92 the last three seasons, but even if he falls to 80 grabs or so, that’s still a well-above average number in a PPR. They continue to move him around to get him open, and he continues to be Ryan’s “blanky,” so until the wheels officially fall off White, he should be a presumed PPR stud.
Antonio Brown (Pit) – Brown is coming off an up-and-down season, but he still has a lot of promise as an all-around receiver. With the departure of WR Mike Wallace to Miami and TE Heath Miller continuing to recover from knee surgery, Brown enters the year as the clear top target for QB Ben Roethlisberger. WR Emmanuel Sanders is the only other receiver who’s played significant time with Big Ben, so Brown figures to see heavy targets in 2013. The Steelers might try to push the ball downfield a little more often this season, but Brown will still be the featured receiver, especially on intermediate routes, which is a staple in Todd Haley’s offense. He’s never been a prolific TD producer, despite scoring in his final four games of last season, so he’s always been a better option for PPR formats. Brown saw 105 targets last season, despite missing three games, and he could see even more passes this season as the featured receiver. It wouldn’t be a shock at all if he makes a push toward triple-digit receptions, which makes him one of our favorite mid-round PPR picks.
Dwayne Bowe (KC) – Bowe has always been one of the better WR talents in the NFL, but his quarterback play has really failed him at times, especially last season’s debacle with Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn. We’d love to see what he could do with an elite QB, but the veteran Alex Smith should at least provide a significant upgrade. Bowe also got a significant coaching upgrade in Andy Reid, who has a long history of throwing it a ton. Heck, the additions of Smith and Reid prompted Bowe to sign a long-term extension with the Chiefs, when it seemed like he was all but gone toward the end of last season under the Scott Pioli regime. Bowe is still in his prime at 28 years old, so he should get back to the 80-catch range that he’s achieved twice before in his career. Bowe is feeling so good coming into the season that he predicted that he would lead the league in receptions (in case you’re wondering, that would be good in a PPR league). It’s all looking up for Bowe heading into 2013, so he’s got a legit chance to rebound as a top-10 fantasy WR and a major foundation of KC’s passing game.
Tavon Austin (Stl) – The Rams didn’t spend the 8th-overall pick in the 2013 draft to make Austin a gimmick player. He’ll play right away out of the slot, and our guess is the Rams will try to use him as a Percy Harvin type. Austin could also line up out of the backfield at times, in more of a college spread look for the Rams. Austin will most likely be used all over the field, so it’s hard to project what exactly he’ll do this season, but he should catch his fair share of passes to be PPR relevant. Of course, his OC Brian Schottenheimer has a spotty history, so we’re a little skeptical if Austin will be utilized in the most efficient way. In addition, there are some mild maturity concerns with Austin, although there’s nothing serious in his past. Obviously, former WR Danny Amendola thrived in the offense when healthy, so Austin could eventually be a major producer and a PPR stud.
Anquan Boldin (SF) – In Boldin’s three seasons with the Ravens, he never really could recreate his production from his Arizona days. The Ravens just didn’t throw it enough like his old Cardinal teams, but his current 49er offense doesn’t figure to throw it a whole either. Still, Boldin figures to see a lot of action this season as the Niners’ #1 WR after the loss of WR Michael Crabtree. Crabtree tore his Achilles during spring practice, and he’s a long shot to even play until late this season. In preparation, Boldin’s been working a lot out of the slot during off-season workouts, which fits his physical skillset the best since he can no longer separate the way he used to. Boldin looked spectacular during the playoffs last season, but he was a mediocre fantasy producer for most of his tenure in Baltimore. Boldin isn’t an elite talent at this stage of his career, but he is savvy enough to become QB Colin Kaepernick’s security blanket in a bigger role than he’s had the last two seasons. Remember, Crabtree caught 61 passes in 10 games with Kaepernick as the starter, including playoffs. That’s a lot of PPR production to replace.
Cecil Shorts (Jac) – Shorts will be the Jags’ unquestioned go-to receiver when the season starts because of Justin Blackmon’s four-game suspension. Shorts exploded onto the scene with what seemed like a big play every single week last season, so with Blackmon out, he could see bracket coverage that tries to completely take him out of the action. Can Shorts thrive in this environment? Shorts’ early season prospects also could hinge on the preseason QB competition. Shorts clearly played better when Chad Henne started last season, instead of Blaine Gabbert, so the QB camp battle could be significant for Shorts. He did battle two concussions last season, and he did rely heavily on big plays, so there are some aspects to be concerned about. Shorts, though, did look great in off-season workouts, looking better and stronger, so he has a chance to be an even bigger part of the Jags’ attack under new OC Jedd Fisch, especially early in the season. We tend to think he has the ability to be more than a big-play guy, if he gets some semblance of consistency from the QB position. Ironically, the book on Shorts coming out of college was that he was much more of a dependable possession receiver than a big-play threat. That prompts us to believe he can deliver as the go-to guy in this offense. Note: Blackmon is a good PPR option as well, provided his 4-game suspension causes him to drop into the later rounds.
Kendall Wright (Ten) – Wright actually had a little more PPR value than we had anticipated last year. That’s because most had him pegged as a deep threat coming out of Baylor, but in reality, he was the exact opposite. Wright caught a solid 64 balls as a rookie, leading all rookies in that department. But he had only 626 receiving yards (9.8 YPC). Only one other receiver with more than 30 catches posted a lower YPC, and it’s even debatable if Dexter McCluster is a WR anyway. But Wright at least showed good chemistry with Jake Locker, and off-season reports from The Tennessean suggest that Wright is picking up Dowell Loggains’ new offense quicker than the rest of his teammates. His comfort level in the offense is showing in practice, as he’s hauling even the difficult catches. We would think Wright will be utilized more down the field this year, but he’s still capable of catching 75 or so balls if Locker can show any shred of consistency.
Emmanuel Sanders (Pit) – With Mike Wallace gone, Sanders will be expected to step into a starting role, and it’s an important one. The Steelers had an opportunity to let Sanders go to the Patriots and take a draft pick this off-season when New England offer-sheeted him, but they decided to match the $2.5 million, one-year deal. So the Steelers have an important and versatile player for 2013, and Sanders has added motivation because he’s playing in a contract year. Sanders has played both outside and in the slot, and his versatility will help him earn the trust of QB Ben Roethlisberger if he can sharpen his route running. Sanders has been rosterable in the past, but only as a depth option. He’s a leading candidate to truly “break out” for PPR owners this season.
Rod Streater (Oak) – Streater came onto the scene as an undrafted free agent in training camp and the preseason in 2012, and he could have a chance to legitimately break out this regular season, as he looks primed to take over as the Raiders’ #2 WR. His main competition for the job is Juron Criner and Jacoby Ford, and Streater has the advantage of playing both the “Z” and the slot. Streater is also a diligent worker, who strives to get better – which is rare for this team – and he’s pretty solid in all areas of his game, so he’ll be an extremely reliable passing option for a brand new starting QB. It doesn’t matter if Matt Flynn, Tyler Wilson, or Terrelle Pryor starts; it should be a step down from Carson Palmer. No matter who starts, we think that Streater could lead the team in receptions this season, with Denarius Moore coming off a down season and no legit TE after the departure of Brandon Myers, so Streater has some real potential to catch a lot of passes. It’s also worth noting that his size should help get him on the field and help his shaky QB get him the ball.
Greg Little (Cle) – Little has always been an extremely talented WR, but he’s never put it completely together in his first two seasons. Little’s biggest problem is that he’s really struggled with dropped passes, although he did get slightly better in the second half of last season. Still, he finished the season with 9 drops, so he needs to catch the ball more consistently to earn the trust of QB Brandon Weeden. But this is his chance. Little will play a bigger role as the #1 WR the first two games of the year with WR Josh Gordon suspended to start the season. Overall, Little looks like he could be the #2 receiving option in a decent passing game, so he’s got decent PPR potential as a late-round draft pick. And unlike seasons past, there’s little downside to taking him now, in relation to where he’s being drafted. Keep in mind new OC Norv Turner has a great track record of quickly turning offenses around, so Little is really standing out as a savvy later-round PPR pick.
Vincent Brown (SD) – Brown had breakout potential when we raved about him last preseason, but a broken ankle robbed him of his entire 2012 regular season. But the gifted Brown is once again garnering plenty of buzz this off-season, as he was back to complete health and dazzling at Charger OTAs. Brown played ahead of Malcom Floyd in Mike McCoy’s new offense, and he looks ready to unseat him as the #2 WR this season. Brown is a superb route runner with good hands and is a much better fit for the new Charger offense than the aging Floyd. The Chargers’ top WR Danario Alexander has a long history of injuries, so Brown also has a chance to become the #1 WR at some point this year. Of course, the Charger offensive line is a complete mess, so it’s less than an ideal situation, and QB Philip Rivers is declining, but Brown could make a major impact as a sleeper in PPR formats.
DeAndre Hopkins (Hou) – There isn’t a whole lot of production to go around in the Texans’ passing game – they ran the ball nearly 50% of the time last season, which is well above the league average. But the good news for Hopkins is that there aren’t a whole lot of mouths to feed either. You’re fooling yourself if you think Kevin Walter has been anything more than an average #3 WR for about five years now, but he’s still been running with the Texans’ starters over that time. Now Walter is gone, DeVier Posey is coming off an Achilles injury, and Keshawn Martin is little more than a slot guy. The Texans clearly want to take some pressure off of Andre Johnson, who is still productive but has an injury history and could be slowing down. The big and physical Hopkins should be that guy, barring disaster, as he was already running with the first team in the spring.
Dexter McCluster (KC) – McCluster is really versatile, but no coach has yet to figure out how to use him effectively in the NFL. Andy Reid is next up. Both Reid and QB Alex Smith have expressed excitement about McCluster this off-season, and if the Chiefs employ “pistol” concepts in their offense as expected, McCluster will be a big factor. Reid’s comments from this off-season suggest that he’s not totally intrigued by third-year guy Jon Baldwin, and we know that Donnie Avery isn’t among the most reliable receivers in the game. McCluster’s versatility and unique skill set has never translated to more than fleeting fantasy value, but if Reid gets him into a position to succeed, he’s got some really interesting potential and is the perfect late-round flyer in a larger (14 teams or more) PPR league.
Ryan Broyles (Det) – Broyles’ recovery from a second ACL tear already looks like is bordering on miraculous. According to the team’s official website, Broyles could be ready at some point during training camp despite tearing his right ACL in December (he tore his left one in college at Oklahoma). If that’s the case and he proves he’s healthy, he instantly becomes one of our favorite WR PPR sleepers. The Lions don’t have much reliability at the position behind Calvin Johnson, and a healthy Broyles could provide big-money man Matthew Stafford a reliable target in the slot, and he can play outside too. If he has a strong summer, he instantly turns from “someone to watch” into a legitimate late-round depth target. We love his ability and all he did in junior year of college was catch 131 balls for 1622 yards and 14 TDs in 14 games.
Julian Edelman (NE) – Could Edelman actually start for the Patriots this year? Well why not? They’ve lost a ton of production in the passing game, after all, and at least he has some experience. Edelman is interesting for multiple reasons. Most obviously, he’s the “handcuff” for the oft-injured Danny Amendola, and Edelman has done an adequate Wes Welker impression in the past. But if the Patriots want to keep some of their 2-TE plays from last season intact, it’s very possible Edelman might make a better replacement for the troubled Aaron Hernandez than any TE on the Patriot roster. In other words, he and Amendola could see the field together rather often. If they’re both healthy there’s a chance here they could split 250-300 targets between the two of them. We’re obviously much higher on Amendola, given his longer track record, but assuming his foot issue isn’t a problem this summer Edelman – who can play outside if need be – is a really smart depth pick late in a PPR draft.
Ace Sanders (Jac) – Sanders is an interesting new playmaker for the Jaguars, and he’s been called a lesser Tavon Austin, so it will be interesting to see how the Jags deploy Sanders this preseason. In fact, he worked with the first-team out of the slot during off-season workouts, although Jordan Shipley is still the favorite for the job heading into camp. Still, we can’t help but think that the new coaching staff would love to integrate a player they drafted into a major role in this offense desperate for playmakers. Sanders’ big chance could come early, as Justin Blackmon serves a four-game suspension. Sanders is by no means a sure thing, especially in one of the league’s weaker offenses, but he could eventually carve out a nice role in the slot and become a minor PPR factor.
Rueben Randle (NYG) – Randle has a clear spot as the #3 WR for Eli Manning, and his role could only get bigger at some point this season, playing behind the injury-prone Hakeem Nicks. He actually played pretty well in limited action, recording 19/298/3 in 16 games as a rookie in 2012. OC Kevin Gilbride gave Randle glowing reviews during off-season workouts, and he should see significant playing time, even if Nicks stays healthy, so he’s a receiver with some upside heading into 2013. A favorite of ours from last season’s draft, all Randle needs is the playing time, as he could easily put up some big-time numbers in this pass-happy Giant offense. Randle may be the #3 WR in New York heading into the preseason, but he could eventually play a bigger role, which would make him a must-have for fantasy. Remember, Nicks is an impending free agent, and the Giants will want to take a long look at his potential replacement.
Damaris Johnson (Phi) – For now, Johnson is merely one of the wide receivers we’re keeping a close eye on this preseason. He flashed at times last year, and played extremely well during off-season workouts, and Johnson looks like he is headed for more of a role than just his punt-return duties. Our own Adam Caplan attended OTAs and minicamp and believes that Johnson will have a role behind Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson, and his skill set would fit Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense perfectly. He’s incredibly elusive and quick, which makes him very intriguing for some short passes around the line of scrimmage. Johnson isn’t a player to draft before the preseason starts, but he’s certainly someone to watch if his role is even bigger than expected.
Tight Ends
Blatantly Obvious PPR Studs
Jimmy Graham (NO)
Obvious PPR Studs
Tony Gonzalez (Atl) – It’s hard to find a more reliable PPR TE than Gonzalez, especially given the scarcity of proven tight ends currently in the league. Gonzalez has now hauled in at least 70 passes in a remarkable 10 straight seasons, and he’s coming off his best season with the Falcons (93/930/8) in four years. Gonzo hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down, even as he’s entering his 15th season at the age of 37, so we’re not expecting him to fall of a cliff in 2013. Remember, he’s motivated by finishing oh-so-close to his first Super Bowl ever. He still figures to be a huge part of this pass-heavy offense, especially in the underneath areas. Gonzalez clearly isn’t a sexy pick at this point in his career, but it will be hard to find a more reliable pick at TE, and he’s rarely disappointed.
Jason Witten (Dal) – Witten is bound to regress this season, which is only a given coming off his NFL record-breaking mark of 110 catches. Witten was also the only TE to break a 1,000 receiving yards last season, but he did struggle to find the end zone, with just 3 TDs. Despite Witten’s measly TD production (a disturbing trend with Tony Romo at QB), Witten still finished as top-5 PPR TE. About the only thing that could significantly hurt Witten’s production this season is the continued emergence of WR Dez Bryant or the emergence of a legit #3 WR here. Witten’s numbers tailed off a bit at the end of the season when Bryant took off, but he did at least score 2 of his 3 TDs in the final three games. Witten has caught 94+ passes three of his last four seasons, so he’s clearly still a high-TE option in PPR formats, even if he can’t match his record-breaking 2012.
Upside PPR Options
Dennis Pitta (Bal) – All signs are pointing toward Pitta having a huge season. Pitta wasn’t entirely consistent last season, but he still put up impressive numbers (61/669/7) to finish 9th among TEs in FPG (11.3). Pitta and QB Joe Flacco are best friends on and off the field, and their chemistry continued to develop throughout the spring. Of course, Flacco has a big arm and loves to throw it deep, but he also needs someone reliable underneath, which is where Pitta fits in. Flacco lost his favorite intermediate target when the Ravens traded Anquan Boldin to the 49ers. Pitta could see a significant number of Boldin’s former targets, and he also thrived when Jim Caldwell took over as OC at the end of last season, totaling 25/346/5 in just five games. Caldwell clearly helped the team’s passing game, and Flacco played at a different level in the playoffs, so Pitta has some room for growth this year, which is why we love him in all formats. When Flacco lost his boy Derrick Mason several years ago, he turned to Boldin. Now he’ll turn to his BFF in the reliable and clutch Pitta.
Brandon Myers (NYG) – East Rutherford has been a great spot for the last couple of disappointing or no-name players to line up with QB Eli Manning and learn from TE coach Mike Pope. TE Martellus Bennett finally broke out a bit last season, after spending four uneventful seasons in Dallas. Before Bennett, Jake Ballard and Kevin Boss became fantasy relevant with the Giants. Myers comes into 2013 with more of a resume than any of those players. He broke out last season with the Raiders with a huge PPR season (79/806/4, most in garbage time), and he could have another volume season with the Giants. Myers isn’t as talented as Bennett, but he’s more of a reliable target underneath for Manning. Myers told the Newark Star-Ledger in July, “I’m with a great organization, a proven team with a proven quarterback, in an offense that if you’re a tight end and you can get open, you’ll get a lot of opportunities to catch the ball.” Myers has the chance to be a good PPR starter like last season, but he’ll at least be a solid fantasy backup if he can’t replicate the GTP he posted with Carson Palmer.
Vernon Davis (SF) – Davis clearly had a disappointing 2012 and his inconsistent performances hurt many fantasy teams last season, yet he exploded in the playoffs. Sound like a repeat of what we were writing after 2011? That’s because it is. Still, Davis is one of the more talented TEs in the league, and he’ll have a real opportunity to be the go-to guy this season after WR Michael Crabtree’s Achilles injury this spring. Crabtree will miss, at the very least, the bulk of the season, so Vernon will be moved all over the field to give QB Colin Kaepernick a weapon. HC Jim Harbaugh even worked Davis exclusively at WR this off-season, although he won’t move there permanently because he’s a terrific blocker. Davis looked absolutely pathetic with Kaepernick at the end of 2012, but the two started to show a real chemistry during the playoffs, when he absolutely dominated. Davis has certainly been disappointing at times in the past, but he clearly has upside with a growing QB and a larger role. We can’t imagine a scenario where Davis sees only 60 targets again like he did last season, so his 67/792/6 mark from 2011 seems more reasonable than his 41/548/5 from 2012. At his best, he can blow that number away.
Brandon Pettigrew (Det) – Pettigrew, like most of the Lions outside of WR Calvin Johnson, turned in a supremely disappointing 2012 season. Pettigrew once again struggled with drops, but he proved to be even more prone to errors in 2012, which is never good for a guy that needs a ton of volume to compile stats. He racked up just 59/567/3 last season, way down from his combined 154/1499/9 from 2010-11. Pettigrew has never been a dynamic red-zone threat, so he needs to rack up the catches to be PPR relevant. Pettigrew did shed 10 pounds this off-season to help with his mobility, which is a good sign that he’s serious about bouncing back from his awful 2012 campaign (he’s also in a contract year this season). That Lions brought in RB Reggie Bush, who will see a ton of targets himself, so there might not be as much love to go around from QB Matthew Stafford. But Stafford threw it an NFL record 727 times last season, and the production has to go somewhere. Pettigrew will never be prolific in the TD department, but if he can improve his career-worst catch rate (57.8%) he should be a borderline PPR starter. This is someone whom coach Jim Schwartz called “an extension of the run game” in the past, and at his peak Pettigrew was the Lions’ #2 option in the passing game. His 2012 was ugly, but this is an ideal situation for a rebound.
Greg Olsen (Car) – While Olsen can still completely disappear from week to week, including two 1-catch performances last season, he played his most consistent football in his sixth NFL season. We’re obviously a little concerned that Rob Chudzinski is gone because he’s proven to be TE-friendly, but Olsen and QB Cam Newton started to show a strong rapport last season. The Charlotte Observer reported that the good vibes between the two continued into off-season workouts. While WR Brandon LaFell showed some small progress last season, Olsen is still clearly the #2 receiving option in this offense behind Steve Smith. Olsen finished 6th in TE targets (103), racking up 69/843/5, and he should continue to see a hefty number of passes. If Newton continues progresses with his accuracy and decision-making, Olsen should once again be a viable low-end TE starter in PPR formats.
Owen Daniels (Hou) – Daniels is particularly cruel. Last year was the first year in a while we didn’t fully back him based on his athletic ability considering his results had been mediocre at best. So of course, last season he plays 15 games, posts 62/716/6 receiving, and finishes 9th among TEs in a PPR with 11.3 FPG (although he tailed off later in the season). While we think WR DeAndre Hopkins is going to get a great shot to put up big numbers with the Texans this season, Daniels’ role could remain pretty damn consistent with TE/FB James Casey moving on to Philadelphia. He was the Texans’ top target in their loss to the Patriots in the playoffs, with 9/81 receiving (after 8/91 the previous week), so it’s clear QB Matt Schaub took a liking to him. There hasn’t been a lot of buzz about Daniels, but he’s a great guy to get pretty cheap as a low-end #1 fantasy TE.
Watch List
Note: The “Watch List” contains players who could move into another category – or fall off the list entirely – depending on what happens in training camp and the preseason.
Martellus Bennett (Chi) – Producing little despite being among the league’s more talented TEs in his first four NFL seasons with the Cowboys, we nonetheless liked Bennett as a value pick entering his 2012 season with the Giants. And Bennett backed it up and finally emerged last season, recording career-best numbers of 55/626/5. He now enters another situation where he can succeed in the innovative offense of HC Marc Trestman. QB Jay Cutler has lacked a dynamic TE since Greg Olsen left in 2010, and Bennett is a huge upgrade over “Stonehands” Kellen Davis. The Bears lacked a consistent #2 receiving threat after Brandon Marshall last season, and Bennett could very well be that guy this season. He’s a strong blocker, but the Bears are also planning on using Bennett to create mismatches. While there are better TE options available, Bennett can still be had relatively late in drafts, so he could have some upside in all formats as the third option in this passing game behind Marshall and RB Matt Forte.
Jordan Cameron (Cle) – Cameron still has to prove it on the field, but the talented young TE will have the opportunity to play significant snaps in a TE-friendly offense this season, so his prospects are looking up. New HC Rob Chudzinski loves to use his TEs, and he told us he liked Cameron during an interview at the Combine but admitted he’s still an unknown. New OC Norv Turner also helped Antonio Gates become a household name in San Diego. Turner used vertical WRs to create space for Gates underneath, and the Browns also have some viable deep threats, including WRs Josh Gordon and Travis Benjamin. While Cameron still has a long way to go, he should get every chance to show his talent, so he’s got some potential as a #2 TE.
Coby Fleener (Ind) – HC Chuck Pagano certainly caught our attention in May when he said that he expects Fleener to double his 26-catch total from 2012. Former OC Bruce Arians was notorious for underusing his TEs, and Fleener will get to play under his former Stanford OC Pep Hamilton this season, so Fleener’s chances are looking up just strictly from a scheme perspective. Arians used Fleener primarily as an in-line TE last season, but he should be used as a more versatile weapon in 2013. Of course, fellow second-year TE Dwayne Allen is still in the mix, which could curb some of his production. Still, Fleener is a taller and more athletic option than Allen, so he’s got more big-play and red-zone potential. He also has a history with QB Andrew Luck dating back to their Stanford days with Hamilton, so Fleener has a real chance – as Pagano said – to double his 2012 catch total and become a relevant #2 TE in PPR formats. We like Fleener to break out this year, but he’s only on the “watch list” because we still need to get a better feel for his and Allen’s role.
Tyler Eifert (Cin) – Eifert plays like a wide receiver and his talent makes him an intriguing offensive weapon heading into his rookie year. However, it’s still yet to be seen just how OC Jay Gruden plans on using Eifert along with fellow 1st-round TE Jermaine Gresham. We’re still not totally convinced that Gruden will know how to use Eifert effectively, or if he’ll see the field enough, but Eifert is still an intriguing prospect and one we’re keeping our eyes on. The Bengals used Eifert all over the field and ran a lot of 2-TE sets during off-season workouts, so it’s clear the wheels are in place to put him into action. We’ve just got to see it in game situations. Eifert definitely has the talent to be an upside backup TE, so now we just want to see how the Bengals plan on using him in the preseason.
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