Fantasy Football Player Notes
2025 Draft Rankings
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1.
Ja'Marr Chase
WR - CIN (vs . CLE)
It might not be realistic for Chase to match the splendor of a 2024 season in which he finished with 127-1,708-17, but Chase has been a high-end WR1 since entering the league in 2021, and he has a great bond with longtime college and pro teammate Joe Burrow, one of the best pure passers in the game.
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2.
Saquon Barkley
RB - PHI (vs . WAS)
It's worrisome that Barkley had 482 touches last season, playoffs included. Maybe he's at greater risk of injury this year after handling such a massive workload, but it's hard to quantify the risk. What we can judge with a greater degree of certainty is that Barkley is a phenomenal running back and has a near-perfect ecosystem, playing with a great offensive line in a run-heavy offense. Barkley might not be able to top a 2024 regular season in which he had 2,283 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns, but if he stays healthy, he's a good bet to finish as a top-five fantasy RB.
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3.
Bijan Robinson
RB - ATL (vs . NO)
Freed from the constraints of his rookie-year playcaller, Arthur Smith, Bijan thrived in his second NFL season under new Falcons offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, piling up 1,887 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns. Bijan is sublimely talented and just getting started. I think he deserves to be the first RB off the board in 2025 fantasy drafts.
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4.
Justin Jefferson
WR - MIN (vs . GB)
Some people were nervous last summer that QB Sam Darnold could drag down Justin Jefferson's fantasy output. Jefferson finished with 103-1.533-10 and was WR2 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. We probably shouldn't worry about a receiver as great as Jefferson being dragged down by second-year QB J.J. McCarthy, who'll be seeing his first regular-season action for the Vikings.
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5.
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB - DET (at CHI)
Gibbs was awesome last year as the RB2 in fantasy points per game. The loss of David Montgomery for the final three weeks of the season helped him, but it's not like Gibbs wasn't awesome before then. In Weeks 1-15, with David Montgomery in the lineup, Gibbs was the RB4 in fantasy points per game (18.9), averaging 16.1 touches and 103 total yards. In Weeks 16-18 (without Montgomery), Gibbs went bonkers with 32.6 fantasy points per game as he decimated opponents with 25.6 touches and 162.4 total yards per game. I'm not trying to detract from his season, but it helped. In Weeks 1-15, Gibbs still didn't hold the goal line or red zone role on the ground. During that stretch, Montgomery had 25 rushing attempts inside the five-yard line compared to 18 for Gibbs (per Fantasy Points Data). Gibbs will be efficient with whatever workload he's allotted after he ranked first in explosive run rate, fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and third in yards per route run. He's a top-three back, no matter how ya slice it.
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6.
CeeDee Lamb
WR - DAL (at NYG)
Lamb played half of the 2025 season without QB Dak Prescott, who sustained a season-ending hamstring injury, and missed a pair of games himself. He still had 101-1,194-6 and finished WR8 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. Lamb gets Prescott back, and the Cowboys' addition of WR George Pickens should keep defenses from rolling all sorts of coverage help in Lamb's direction.
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7.
Derrick Henry
RB - BAL (at PIT)
Henry was a monster in his first season in Baltimore, rushing for 1,921 yards and scoring 18 touchdowns in his age-30 season. Age and mileage suggest that Henry is a risky bet, but the man seems indestructible and impervious to age. He won't catch many passes, but Henry should once again compile big-time rushing numbers.
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8.
Puka Nacua
WR - LAR (vs . ARI)
Nacua missed five early-season games in 2024 with a sprained PCL but was excellent when healthy, averaging 7.2 catches and 90.0 yards per game for the season. The Rams let Cooper Kupp walk in the offseason but added Davante Adams, who's still highly productive even in his early 30s. But Adams' arrival is no reason to fade Puka, who's firmly established himself as one of the better receivers in the game.
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9.
Nico Collins
WR - HOU (vs . IND)
Collins turned in a second consecutive 1,000-yard season despite missing five games with a hamstring injury. He'll be the alpha receiver in the Houston offense this season, with veteran Christian Kirk and rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel as supporting cast members. The 26-year-old Collins is just entering his prime and is a worthy option late in the first round of 2025 fantasy drafts.
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10.
Malik Nabers
WR - NYG (vs . DAL)
Nabers drew a whopping 170 targets as a rookie -- second in the league behind only Ja'Marr Chase -- and finished with 109-1,204-7 despite playing with a bad group of quarterbacks. The Giants may not have fixed their QB position, but they at least patched it up by signing Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston, and drafting Jaxson Dart. Nabers should be an NFL star and a fantasy first-rounder for a long, long time.
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11.
Brian Thomas Jr.
WR - JAC (vs . TEN)
Thomas turned in a sublime rookie season, catching 87 passes for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns. He thrived even when backup QB Mac Jones was forced to fill in for injured starter Trevor Lawrence. And Thomas passed every eye test: running crisp routes, making touch catches, and doing heavy damage after the catch. There was nothing fluky about this performance. Expect more of the same.
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12.
Ashton Jeanty
RB - LV (vs . KC)
The No. 6 overall pick in this year's draft could have an enormous fantasy impact right away. Jeanty is fast, has great vision, and his contact balance is otherworldly. Jeanty is used to handling big workloads after being a heavy-duty back at Boise State, and he adds value as a pass catcher. Raiders offensive coordinator Chip Kelly likes to run his offenses at a brisk pace, which should help Jeanty pile up touches. I have no issues with anyone who wants to take Ashton Jeanty in the top half of the first round in 2025 fantasy drafts.
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13.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR - DET (at CHI)
St. Brown has finished WR3 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring in each of the last two years, but he slipped from 17.0 fantasy points per game in 2023 to 15.2 FPPG in 2024, even though he scored a career-high 12 touchdowns last year and also had a career-best catch rate of 81.6%. That's because he averaged 10.3 targets per game in 2023 but only 8.3 targets per game in 2024. The emergence of Jameson Williams last season was among the reasons for St. Brown's target slippage. St. Brown is still one of the more stable fantasy investments you can make, but the ceiling might not be quite as high as it was a couple of years ago.
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14.
Jonathan Taylor
RB - IND (at HOU)
Taylor has missed 16 games over the last three seasons, and his recurring ankle injuries are major concern. But when Taylor is healthy, he's one of the best pure runners in the league. Despite missing three games in 2024, Taylor had 303 carries for 1,431 yards and 11 touchdowns. Taylor doesn't catch many passes -- he's had fewer than 20 receptions in each of the last two seasons -- but if he can stay healthy, he'll continue to stack up big rushing totals.
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15.
A.J. Brown
WR - PHI (vs . WAS)
The six-year veteran just turned in his fifth 1,000-yard season, even though Brown lost four games to injuries, and even though the Eagles were the run-heaviest team in the league. Better health and an uptick in Philadelphia's passing rate could lead to a big season for AJB.
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16.
Josh Jacobs
RB - GB (at MIN)
One of the best inside runners in the league, Jacobs had 1,329 rushing yards and a career-high 15 TD runs in his first season with the Packers. He ranked sixth in the league in rushing attempts with 301, and Jacobs once again projects as a workhorse for the Packers, who were the third run-heaviest team in the league last season.
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17.
Christian McCaffrey
RB - SF (vs . SEA)
It's obviously risky to draft Christian McCaffrey. He played only four games last year due to bilateral Achilles tendinitis and a PCL injury. Over his 10-year career, there have been four seasons in which McCaffrey played seven or fewer games. And now he's 29 years old. But the potential rewards are vast. McCaffrey is two years removed from having more than 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 21 touchdowns. He's in a Kyle Shanahan offense. If McCaffrey stays healthy, he's going to smash, which is why he still warrants consideration as a late first-round or early second-round pick.
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18.
Drake London
WR - ATL (vs . NO)
London posted career-best numbers across the board in his third NFL season, finishing with 100 catches for 1,271 yards and nine touchdowns on 158 targets. Michael Penix is taking over as Atlanta's starting QB this season, and London really clicked with the young QB when he got a late-season audition last year. In the three starts Penix made at the end of the regular season, London had 22 catches for 352 and two touchdowns on 39 targets. The 6-foot-4 London has a huge wingspan and reliable hands. He has become a blue-chip wide receiver and now warrants a top-15 selection in fantasy drafts.
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19.
George Kittle
TE - SF (vs . SEA)
Kittle remains an elite option at the tight end position and doesn't look to be slowing down anytime soon. Kittle finished last year as the TE1 in fantasy points per game, and it's like no one cares as they rank him as the third tight end in fantasy heading into 2025. Deebo Samuel is gone. Brandon Aiyuk's health and effectiveness are up in the air for 2025. Will Jauan Jennings continue his breakout, or will Ricky Pearsall fulfill the promise of his draft capital? There are a ton of questions in the 49ers' passing attack in 2025, but Kittle isn't one of them. He has been excellent and should continue that string of fantasy dominance. Last year, Kittle ranked sixth in target share, first in yards per route run, third in yards after the catch per reception, and second in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). He was also flooded with high-leverage usage, ranking fifth in deep targets and second in red zone targets among tight ends. Kittle could see more volume in 2025 and repeat as the TE1.
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20.
De'Von Achane
RB - MIA (at NE)
After averaging an outrageous 7.8 yards per carry as a rookie in 2023, Achane merely averaged 4.5 yards per carry last season. But Achane's receiving numbers soared last year as the Miami passing game became more of a dink-and-dunk attack. In 2023, Achane had 27 catches in 11 games. Last year, he had 78 catches for 592 yards and six TDs in 17 games. The question is whether the Dolphins restore the verticality to their passing game, endeavoring to get Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle more involved. If so, Achane might not come close to repeating those stellar receiving totals.
But as I mentioned when we talked about projections that scare us and we got into Tyreek Hill ... Tua Tagovailoa averaged 5.7 intended air yards per throw last year - a career low for Tua and a crazy-low number in general. ... When Tua came back from his concussion last year, he just wasn't throwing downfield very much. It was bad for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and it was good for Achane and Jonnu Smith. Achane went from 2.5 catches a game as a rookie to 4.5 catches a game. I just don't know if Achane is going to be quite that busy as a pass catcher if Tua can stay healthy and the Miami passing game is back to normal this year, with much more of a downfield component than we saw in 2024. |
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21.
Bucky Irving
RB - TB (vs . CAR)
What a rookie season Bucky Irving had. Not only did he average 5.4 yards per carry, but he averaged 3.93 yards after contact per carry -- the most among all running backs with 60 or more rushing attempts. Irving forced 62 missed tackles last year, which ranked eighth, and all the running backs who forced more missed tackles last year had more carries than Irving. There were seven games in which Irving played more than half of the Buccaneers' offensive snaps, including their one playoff game, and in those seven games he averaged 127.3 yards from scrimmage per game and scored six touchdowns. Irving displaced Rachaad White as the Bucs' lead RB down the stretch last season and should continue to hold that job. Invest with confidence.
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22.
Ladd McConkey
WR - LAC (at DEN)
McConkey was wildly efficient as a rookie, averaging 2.59 yards per route run and 10.3 yards per target en route to an 82-catch, 1,149-yard season. McConkey only had 112 targets in 16 games, and there might not be much room for target growth in Greg Roman's slow-paced, run-heavy offense. McConkey offers a sturdy floor, but his ceiling may not be as high as some people imagine.
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23.
Kyren Williams
RB - LAR (vs . ARI)
Kyren Williams has finished RB2 and RB8 in half-point PPR fantasy points per game the last two seasons. Last, year, he had 316 carries in 16 games. Only Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry had more carries. Williams wasn't particularly efficient last year, and the Rams keep adding to their backfield. They drafted Blake Corum in the third round in 2024, and they drafted Jarquez Hunter in the fourth round this year. Williams should remain immensely valuable if he maintains his workhorse role, but that's far from guaranteed.
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24.
Brock Bowers
TE - LV (vs . KC)
Brock Bowers had a legendary rookie season. He finished as the TE3 in fantasy points per game. He logged the most receptions, receiving yards, PPR fantasy points per game, and targets for a rookie tight end EVER! Insane, insane production. Last year, among 47 qualifying tight ends, he remained stellar, ranking second in target share (23.6%), third in receiving yards per game (70.2), fifth in yards per route run (2.11), and sixth in first downs per route run (0.108, per Fantasy Points Data). With more target competition added in the offseason with the additions of Jack Bech and Dont'e Thornton, we'll see if Bowers can reproduce this type of season in year two, but I won't be betting against him with improved quarterback play with Geno Smith now under center. Bowers is worth paying up for in drafts as a difference-making option at a onesie position.
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25.
Josh Allen
QB - BUF (vs . NYJ)
Allen posted another elite season as the QB2 in fantasy points per game. He has not finished lower than QB3 in fantasy points per game since 2020, with three seasons as the QB1. The rushing production continues to be a big part of his wizardry, as he had 12 rushing scores while ranking fifth in rushing yards and third in red zone carries per game. Allen remains no slouch as a passer as well, ranking ninth in yards per attempt, seventh in highly accurate throw rate, and first in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). He is in the running for QB1 overall again this season.
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26.
Lamar Jackson
QB - BAL (at PIT)
Lamar Jackson stole the QB1 crown away last year. It was his first time as the QB1 in fantasy points per game since his monstrous 2019 campaign. I know this won't shock anyone, but his rushing production remained stellar as he led all quarterbacks with 915 rushing yards while ranking tenth in rushing touchdowns and fourth in carries per game. Jackson also took more strides as a passer, finishing with a career-high 4,172 passing yards and 41 passing touchdowns. Hopefully, the shade that he received earlier in his career as a passer is dead and buried ten feet deep because he is a stellar thrower of the football. Among 40 qualifying passers last season, Jackson ranked first in yards per attempt, fifth in CPOE, and seventh in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Jackson could be the QB1 overall again in 2025.
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27.
Tee Higgins
WR - CIN (vs . CLE)
Some fantasy managers will shy away from Higgins because he's missed five games in each of the last two years, and because he isn't the top receiver on his own team. (That honor belongs to Ja'Marr Chase, of course.) But Higgins is an outstanding receiver in his own right. He scored 10 touchdowns in only 12 games last season and averaged 75.9 receiving yards per contest. The Bengals' shaky defense could lead to a lot of high-scoring shootouts for Cincinnati this season -- another reason to consider investing in Higgins.
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28.
James Cook
RB - BUF (vs . NYJ)
I have some concerns about James Cook heading into the 2025 season. Cook's touchdown totals for the last three seasons: 3, 6, 18. Which number looks like the outlier to you?
Cook is being selected as a high-end RB2 in early drafts, which doesn't seem terribly unreasonable. But TD regression is inevitable, Cook probably isn't going to get a huge rushing load because he weighs less than 200 pounds, and while he's a good pass catcher, Cook might not be a huge needle-mover in that area simply because Josh Allen doesn't check down to his RBs very often. (Cook has averaged 38 catches over the last two years.) It's also possible the Bills give more work to second-year RB Ray Davis, who had 152 yards from scrimmage against the Jets in the one game Cook missed last season. |
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29.
Mike Evans
WR - TB (vs . CAR)
Evans topped the 1,000-yard mark for an 11th consecutive season, keeping the streak alive by crossing the 1,000-yard threshold late in the Buccaneers' final regular-season game. Evans averaged only 51.7 yards over his first six games and had seven or fewer targets in five of those contests. Then, he injured his hamstring in Week 7 and missed three games. But Evans caught fire upon his return. With fellow WR out for the year with a dislocated ankle, Evans averaged 6.9 receptions and 95.6 yards over his final seven games. Evans has been one of the safest bets in fantasy football for years. He's entering his age-32 season, but he's aging gracefully.
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30.
Jayden Daniels
QB - WAS (at PHI)
Daniels was a league-winning value last year in his rookie season as the QB6 in fantasy points per game. If we remove the two games in which he failed to play more than 50% of the snaps, he averaged 23.7 fantasy points per game and had 0.61 fantasy points per dropback. Those two figures would have ranked second and fourth among quarterbacks last year. In those 15 full games, Daniels averaged 58.2 rushing yards per game, which would have led all quarterbacks last year by 4.4 yards per game. He also wasn't a pushover from the pocket, ranking 14th in yards per attempt, 11th in CPOE, and sixth in catchable target rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Daniels can improve in the passing department, though, which is incredibly scary for anyone not drafting him as he was 24th in highly accurate throw rate and 17th in off-target rate. Daniels has QB1 overall upside this season with a mid QB1 floor.
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31.
Trey McBride
TE - ARI (at LAR)
McBride has a MONSTER 2024 season as the TE2 in fantasy points per game. Last year, among 47 qualifying tight ends, he ranked first in target share, second in receiving yards per game, third in yards per route run, first in first downs per route run, and third in first downs per route run. As insane as it sounds, if his horrible touchdown luck could correct itself, it could have been even better. Despite ranking second in red zone targets, McBride finished with only two receiving touchdowns (four total touchdowns). McBride finished with 15.6 PPR points per game (TE2), but he had 19.2 expected PPR points per game. McBride's horrible touchdown run out could reverse itself in 2025, and if it does, he could be the clear RUNAWAY TE1.
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32.
Davante Adams
WR - LAR (vs . ARI)
Adams is now 32, and he might not be able to completely smash for the Rams this year while sharing targets with Puka Nacua. But Adams proved last year that he hasn't lost anything. From the time Davante Adams joined the Jets in Week 7 through the end of the 2024 regular season, Adams was WR9 in half-point-PPR fantasy points per game despite sharing targets with Garrett Wilson. Another top-12 fantasy season for Adams isn't out of the question.
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33.
Tyreek Hill
WR - MIA (at NE)
We'll probably get some sort of rebound from Tyreek Hill after he went from a magnificent 119-1,799-13 season in 2023 to a disappointing 81-959-6 campaign in 2024. The brightest ray of hope for Tyreek is that Tua Tagovailoa averaged a career-low 5.7 intended air yards per attempt last season. In 2023 he was at 7.7 intended air yards per attempt, and in 2022 he was at 9.5 intended air yards per attempt. The departure of TE Jonnu Smith in a late-June trade could also mean some extra targets for Tyreek. But the Cheetah is 31 now, and we certainly can't count on a full season of good health for Tua.
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34.
Chase Brown
RB - CIN (vs . CLE)
Brown became a high-usage monster for the Bengals last season, finishing with 229-990-7 rushing and 54-360-4 receiving. That was good for an RB12 finish in half-point PPR fantasy scoring, but from Week 4 on, Brown was WR6 in fantasy scoring and RB7 in fantasy points per game. The Bengals didn't make any major investments at running back in the offseason, so Brown should continue to be the lead back for one of the NFL's best offenses.
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35.
Terry McLaurin
WR - WAS (at PHI)
In Jayden Daniels' rookie season, Terry McLaurin posted the best fantasy finish of his career as the WR14 in fantasy points per game. He was fueled by a career-high 13 receiving touchdowns while ranking seventh in deep targets and 18th in red zone targets among wideouts. Among 85 qualifying receivers, he was 32nd in target share (21.7%), 26th in yards per route run (2.17), 12th in end zone targets (13), 30th in first-read share (26.8%), and 17th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). We saw McLaurin's role grow as Daniels became more confident down the stretch and Washington leaned into their aerial attack. In Weeks 1-12, McLaurin had a 20.4% target share and a 25.4% first-read share. In Weeks 13-18, those numbers rose to 24.6% and 30%. McLaurin is a rock-solid WR2 this season who could approach WR1 status if Daniels takes another step.
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36.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR - SEA (at SF)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba broke out in a big way in his sophomore season. He was the WR17 in fantasy points per game and really exploded down the stretch. In Weeks 9-18, he was the WR8 in fantasy points per game, ranking 11th in target share (25.4%), tenth in receiving yards per game (82.4), and ninth in yards per route run and first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). I was very bullish about Smith-Njigba last year, but I find myself worried about his 2025 outlook. The Seattle Seahawks are going to lean on their ground game more this season after ranking sixth in pass rate over expectation and fourth in neutral passing rate in 2024. Even if Smith-Njigba proves that he can pick up right where he left off, his raw target volume could dip this season. I'm also worried about him playing more on the perimeter this season. Last year, during that insane stretch, he ran out of the slot on 81.3% of his snaps. Last year, his separation (0.035 vs. 0.068) and route win rate (9.4% vs. 10.4%) were notably worse as a perimeter wide receiver, while also noting that his overall numbers in these metrics were surprisingly poor. Overall, among 112 qualifying receivers, he ranked 62nd in separation score and 88th in route win rate. Smith-Njigba could return low-end WR2 value this season, but he's a tough player to click as a high-end WR2/ borderline WR1.
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37.
Breece Hall
RB - NYJ (at BUF)
Hall is young (24), talented and versatile, but new Jets head coach Aaron Glenn keeps talking about using multiple running backs this season. It's also worth noting that Hall had trouble against good run defenses last year. He faced four run defenses that were top 10 in DVOA against the run last season and averaged 34.8 rushing yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry in those four contests. Hall has amassed nearly 3,000 yards from scrimmage over the last two years, but he looks like a somewhat risky play for 2025.
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38.
Jalen Hurts
QB - PHI (vs . WAS)
Before he essentially missed the last three games of last year's regular season with a concussion, Hurts was the QB5 in fantasy points per game. The Eagles leaned heavily on their ground game last year with the fewest passing attempts in the NFL, but that number will regress. Philly will pass more in 2025. It's not a question of if but how much. The "Tush Push" is still here despite certain NFL teams and their envy attempting to get rid of it. Hurts spiked the ball in the end zone 14 times last year as he led in red zone carries. While I don't see him hitting that number again, ten-plus rushing scores are probably a lock. Hurts also ranked first in carries per game and third in rushing yards among quarterbacks. I know I've discussed his rushing impact a ton here, but it's not like Hurts was a bad passer last year. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked fourth in yards per attempt, second in CPOE, 13th in highly accurate throw rate, and he had the 11th-lowest off-target rate last year (per Fantasy Points Data). With a cupboard full of skill weapons and a top 5-10 offensive line, Hurts remains a top-four fantasy quarterback with QB1 overall upside.
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39.
Garrett Wilson
WR - NYJ (at BUF)
Wilson has started his NFL career with three straight 1,000-yard seasons, overcoming terrible quarterbacking in his first two seasons, and being forced to share targets with Aaron Rodgers' bestie Davante Adams last year. Now, Wilson is being reunited with former Ohio State teammate Justin Fields. By no means is Fields a great passer, but he could nevertheless be an upgrade for Wilson.
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40.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
WR - ARI (at LAR)
Marvin Harrison Jr. didn't come close to living up to the hype in his rookie season. Harrison Jr. finished as the WR39 in fantasy points per game and the WR27 in expected fantasy points per game. After such a disappointing first year, we're left wondering, entering year two, "Can Harrison live up to last year's hype and breakout in 2025?" I'll start by saying I'm doubtful, and I'll likely remain below consensus on him entering the year, but there's a pathway for it to happen. Ok, let's get back to 2024. In Weeks 1-9, Arizona deployed Harrison Jr. primarily as a downfield receiver, with only 29.9% of his routes being horizontal breaking routes and 49.6% of them being vertical breaking routes. In that sample, he drew a 21.4% target share (32nd) with 49.4 receiving yards per game (43rd), a 28.2% first-read share (29th), 0.093 first downs per route run (36th), and 1.97 yards per route run (38th, per Fantasy Points Data). This was a horrible game plan by Arizona's coaching staff. Last year, Harrison Jr. ranked 84th and 51st in vertical route-breaking separation and route win rate as opposed to 16th and 19th in those categories when it came to horizontal-breaking routes. The good thing for Harrison Jr. is in Weeks 10-18, his horizontal route % climbed to 41.4%, while vertical breaking routes made up 38.5% of his usage. The problem is that in Weeks 10-18, his numbers didn't improve; instead, they actually worsened with the usage change. He had a 20.6% target share (33rd), 55 receiving yards per game (37th), a 27.1% first-read share, 0.078 first downs per route run, and 1.56 yards per route run. His late-season usage and per-route numbers with horizontal routes offer hope, but his declining efficiency with the usage change muddies the 2025 waters. Harrison is a tough player to get excited about, given his usage and efficiency are in question, and there are no concrete answers to suggest we should expect better results moving forward.
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41.
Rashee Rice
WR - KC (at LV)
Rashee Rice was electric early last season, averaging 21.6 PPR fantasy points per game over the first three weeks. But he tore his LCL in Week 4 and missed the rest of the year. It's possible Rice goes right back to being Patrick Mahomes' favorite short-area target and picks up where he left off. But young WR Xavier Worthy asserted himself for the Chiefs down the stretch last season. Rice is also facing a potential suspension for his involvement in a multi-car crash in Dallas in March 2024. The likelihood of a suspension is probably going to drop Rice into low-end WR2 range in most fantasy drafts.
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42.
Kenneth Walker III
RB - SEA (at SF)
It's a good bet that the Seahawks' running game will thrive under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and run game coordinator Rick Dennison. The Kubiak-Dennison combo has been ground-game gold for years dating back to Dennison's pairing with Klint's dad, Gary Kubiak, in the '90s. The Seahawks' running scheme will utilize a lot of outside zone, and Kenneth Walker has been ultra-efficient on outside zone runs early in his career. Walker has been productive when healthy during his time in Seattle, but he's missed 10 games over his first three NFL seasons.
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43.
Chuba Hubbard
RB - CAR (at TB)
Chuba Hubbard racked up 1,366 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns last season, good for an RB12 finish in half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Hubbard averaged 4.8 yards per carry, ranked eighth in yards after contact per attempt among RBs with at least 100 carries, and was 11th among RBs in missed tackles forced. The Panthers rewarded Hubbard with a four-year, $33 million deal with about $16.5 million guaranteed. They signed Rico Dowdle in free agency, but Carolina gave Dowdle a one-year, $2.75 million contract, suggesting that Dowdle is going to be Hubbard's backup. There's reason to be optimistic about the trajectory of the Carolina offense, which was pretty good down the stretch in the first year with Dave Canales as head coach. And Carolina has a good offensive line. PFF had the Panthers ranked 7th in run-blocking grade last season.
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44.
James Conner
RB - ARI (at LAR)
If James Conner stays healthy, it's a good bet he's going to produce. Conner played a career-high 16 games last year and produced a career-high 1,508 yards from scrimmage, along with nine touchdowns, good for an RB11 finish in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. He's being drafted as a midrange RB2, so Conner could return a profit if he can stay relatively healthy again. It's just a matter of whether you're willing to bet on the 30-year-old Conner's health.
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45.
DK Metcalf
WR - PIT (vs . BAL)
After averaging 73 receptions, 1,054 yards and eight touchdowns per year over six seasons in Seattle, D.K. Metcalf heads to Pittsburgh, where he'll be Aaron Rodgers' undisputed lead receiver following the Steelers' offseason trade of George Pickens. The question is how well Rodgers and Metcalf will mesh, and how well Metcalf will fit into Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's system. It seems reasonable to expect midrange to low-end WR2 numbers for the 27-year-old Metcalf, although that could be a conservative expectation.
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46.
Joe Burrow
QB - CIN (vs . CLE)
Last year, Joe Burrow was the QB3 in fantasy points per game, finishing with career bests in nearly every statistical category. He led the NFL in passing attempts, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. Burrow also excelled on a per-dropback basis, ranking 12th in yards per attempt, first in CPOE, and fifth in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). The crazy thing is he is primed to do it again in 2025, possibly. Last year, Cincy ranked first in neutral passing rate and pass rate over expectation, and there's nothing to stop them from doing so again. The Bengals' defense might be even worse this season, so there should be plenty of games where Burrow is playing catch-up, chucking the rock around the yard. His skill player cupboard is intact, so we should see Burrow hovering around the top-five fantasy quarterbacks this season.
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47.
Joe Mixon
RB - HOU (vs . IND)
Over the last four years, Joe Mixon has averaged 1,377 yards from scrimmage and 12.3 touchdowns per season. Mixon figures to be the Texans' lead back once again, but he's heading into his age-29 season, and it's possible he'll cede some snaps to rookie Woody Marks on passing downs and to veteran Nick Chubb on early downs. The Texans also have one of the league's worst offensive lines, which could prevent Mixon from turning in another strong season.
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48.
Alvin Kamara
RB - NO (at ATL)
Alvin Kamara finished RB9 in PPF fantasy scoring last year despite missing three games. He was RB5 in PPR points per game, checking in at 19.0. The concerns are that Kamara is entering his age-30 season and that the Saints' offense could be a train wreck as they endure a transitional season at quarterback. But it's a good bet that Kamara will be a favorite safety valve for the young New Orleans QBs, so Kamara's receiving totals figure to be robust yet again.
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49.
Jameson Williams
WR - DET (at CHI)
Jameson Williams had a nice little third-year breakout for the Lions in 2024, finishing with 58-1,001-7 in 15 games. The former first-round draft pick oozes big-play potential, but it's going to be a bumpy ride, because Jamo isn't a high-volume guy. He averaged 6.1 targets per game last year. The departure of the Lions 2024 offensive coordinator, Ben Johnson, could lead to an overall offensive downturn in Detroit, and it's unlikely that Jared Goff's career-high 6.9% TD rate from last year will stick. Williams is certainly worth your attention, but don't overpay.
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50.
DJ Moore
WR - CHI (vs . DET)
After producing a career-high 1,364 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in his first season in Chicago in 2023, D.J. Moore slipped to 966 yards and six touchdowns in 2024. Strangely, Moore established a new single-season high with 98 catches last year, but he averaged a career-low 9.9 yards per catch. Moore didn't exactly click with rookie QB Caleb Williams. Perhaps new Bears head coach Ben Johnson can help promote better chemistry between Williams and Moore, but another concern is that the Bears now have an abundance of pass catchers, with rookies Luther Burden and Colston Loveland joining Moore, Rome Odunze and Cole Kmet.
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51.
Zay Flowers
WR - BAL (at PIT)
Zay Flowers is very talented and worth the first-round pick the Ravens spent on him in 2023, but the nature of the Ravens' offense works makes Flowers an inconsistent fantasy performer. There were eight games last season in which Flowers had six or fewer targets. There were also eight games in which Flowers finished with fewer than 40 receiving yards.
The problem is that the Ravens ran the ball on 52.5% of their offensive snaps this year. Only the Eagles were run-heavier. That probably won't change much this year with Lamar Jackson at quarterback and Derrick Henry at running back for Baltimore, so we should probably expect more inconsistency from Flowers in his third NFL season. |
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52.
Courtland Sutton
WR - DEN (vs . LAC)
Courtland Sutton had a career-high 81 catches on 135 targets last year and amassed 1,081 yards and eight touchdowns, good for a WR13 finish in half-point PPR. That makes Sutton look like a value at his low-end WR2 ADP. It's possible some of the Broncos' new additions (namely TE Evan Engram and rookie WR Pat Bryant) could put a small dent in Sutton's target share, but Sutton looks like a solid buy at his current cost.
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53.
Omarion Hampton
RB - LAC (at DEN)
Omarion Hampton piled up 3,164 rushing yards and 30 TD runs over his last two seasons at North Carolina and had 67 receptions over that span. The 220-pound Hampton is a powerful downhill runner who's a nightmare to bring down when he has a full head of steam. He's terrific between the tackles, squeezing through tight spaces and powering through contact. The Chargers grabbed Hampton at No. 22 in the draft and figure to eventually start him ahead of Najee Harris, whom they added in free agency. If Harris doesn't fully recover from the eye injury he sustained in a Fourth of July fireworks mishap, it's possible Hampton starts right away. Even if Harris is good to go, this is likely to be at least a 55-45 split in Hampton's favor, although it's possible Hampton starts slowly and picks up steam as the season goes on.
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54.
Sam LaPorta
TE - DET (at CHI)
Sam LaPorta sustained an ankle injury last year that haunted him for much of the season before he exploded down the stretch, looking closer to full health. Overall, he finished the TE8 in fantasy points per game, but it was very much a Jekyll and Hyde season. In Weeks 1-10, he had a 64.8% route run rate with a 10.9% target share, 40.1 receiving yards per game, a 12.6% first-read share, and 0.095 first downs per route run as the TE16 in fantasy points per game (per Fantasy Points Data). After Week 11, people got to see the version of LaPorta that they were paying up for in draft season. In Weeks 12-18, he had a 77% route run rate with an 18.6% target share, 51.4 receiving yards per game, an 18.5% first-read share, and 0.100 first downs per route run as the TE7 in fantasy points per game. The talent is still there. After a disappointing 2024 season, LaPorta should be drafted as a top-five option at tight end this season. The bounceback is incoming.
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55.
David Montgomery
RB - DET (at CHI)
David Montgomery could be hard-pressed to turn a profit on his low-end RB2 ADP. He shares work with Jahmyr Gibbs, one of the most talented RBs in the league. Montgomery has averaged 16.8 and 15.8 touches a game in Gibbs' first two seasons. I'll bet the under on 15.8 touches a game for Montgomery in 2025, as I expect an uptick in Gibbs' usage. We could also see a dip in Montgomery's TD total. He's scored 13 and 12 touchdowns the last two years, as the Lions ranked first and fifth in scoring those two seasons. If the Lions scale back Montgomery's usage to give Gibbs more snaps, or if the Detroit offense has hiccups after losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to the Bears, Monty's TD total could slip. He's a quality running back, but I see Montgomery as more of an RB3 than an RB2.
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56.
Xavier Worthy
WR - KC (at LV)
Xavier Worthy broke out down the stretch in 2024, posting at least four catches and 40+ yards in 10 straight games while scoring 12 total touchdowns (9 receiving, 3 rushing) on the year. From Week 11 on, he averaged over 2.0 yards per route run and 14.6 fantasy points per game - WR8 production over that span. He also ranked 10th in red-zone targets and finished the regular season as the WR21 from Weeks 11-17. With Rashee Rice facing an injury recovery and a multi-game suspension, Worthy is in line to step into a featured role in Kansas City's offense. Worthy's arrow is pointing way up, heading into 2025. If he reprises the "Rice" role in 2025 with his teammate out, the second-year WR should pick up right where he left off.
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57.
DeVonta Smith
WR - PHI (vs . WAS)
One of the NFL's best route-runners, Smith has topped the 1,000-yard mark in two of the last three years, and he almost certainly would have made it three straight if he hadn't missed four games last year. Smith has averaged averaged between 11.7 and 12.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in each of the last three years. The Eagles were the run-heaviest team in the league last year. Smith could be a top-20 fantasy receiver if Philadelphia's passing rate increases in 2025.
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58.
D'Andre Swift
RB - CHI (vs . DET)
D'Andre Swift had 1,345 yards from scrimmage and six touchdowns in his first season with the Bears, and things are now looking up for the Chicago offense. New head coach Ben Johnson is taking over as the playcaller, and Johnson worked with Swift in Detroit. The Bears dramatically improved the interior of their offensive line in free agency. And Chicago didn't make any major additions at running back in the offseason. But Swift ranked dead last in rushing yards over expected per attempt (-0.69) among all RBs with at least 90 carries in 2024, so he's not exactly foolproof. Still, he seems like a reasonably good value at a high-end RB3 price
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59.
Calvin Ridley
WR - TEN (at JAC)
Since missing the 2022 season due to a gambling suspension, Calvin Ridley has produced two straight 1,000-yard seasons and hasn't missed a game over that span. He endured gruesome quarterbacking in Tennessee last year, and now Ridley gets to play with top overall draft pick Cam Ward, an aggressive downfield thrower. Ridley is the Titans' undisputed No. 1 receiver, and I think he's likely to see more than the 120 targets he had last season. There's a good chance Ridley will provide WR2 numbers at a low-end WR3 price.
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60.
Patrick Mahomes II
QB - KC (at LV)
Patrick Mahomes hasn't been a top-six fantasy quarterback in fantasy points per game since 2022. Over the past two seasons, his passing prowess has suffered with 6.8 and 7.0 yards per attempt and back-to-back finishes with less than 30 passing touchdowns and a 4.5% passing touchdown rate. His rushing production is a nice added value bump at this point that we should expect. Mahomes has finished inside the top 12 quarterbacks in rushing yards in each of the past five seasons (12th, 7th, 9th, 6th, 10th). We know that Kansas City will pass a ton. That is a given at this point, as they have ranked in the top three in neutral passing rate in each of the last four seasons. The worry for Mahomes has been that he has quietly struggled as a passer over the last two seasons. Last year, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 29th in highly accurate throw rate and 19th in CPOE. His shortcomings as a deep passer have plagued him for the last two seasons, as he has been in the bottom ten in CPOE and in the top ten in off-target rate with deep passes (per Fantasy Points Data). Mahomes will have the volume and rushing equity to finish as a QB1 again this year, but unless his passing skills return to a top-shelf level, it's tough to consider him as anything more than a low-end QB1.
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61.
RJ Harvey
RB - DEN (vs . LAC)
Denver was among the more desirable possible landing spots for a rookie running back this year, and Broncos second-rounder R.J. Harvey could have a substantial fantasy impact right away. Harvey is on the smaller side (5-9, 208), but he has outstanding quickness, lateral agility and vision. He's also a capable pass catcher, and running backs in Sean Payton's offense typically catch a lot of passes. Payton likes to use multiple running backs, and the Broncos signed veteran J.K. Dobbins after drafting Harvey. But there's little doubt that Harvey will have a prominent role in what should be a pretty good offense.
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62.
TreVeyon Henderson
RB - NE (vs . MIA)
TreVeyon Henderson probably isn't cut out to be an NFL workhorse. He never had more than 183 carries in any of his three seasons at Ohio State. Henderson split work with Quinshon Judkins in his final college season and didn't have more than 12 carries in any game last fall. But Henderson is a sensational playmaker capable of making hay on 12-15 touches a game à la James Cook. Henderson has big-time speed, sports car acceleration and quick feet. He changes direction with minimal loss of speed, and his cutbacks are jaw-dropping. He's useful in the passing game (11.1 yards per catch over his college career) and deadly on screens. After taking Henderson in the second round of the draft, the Patriots are likely to use him as part of a tag team with Rhamondre Stevenson. But with Henderson's playmaking ability, he's the favorite to lead New England in carries this season.
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63.
Kaleb Johnson
RB - PIT (vs . BAL)
Rookie Kaleb Johnson is expected to replace Najee Harris as the Steelers' primary early-down back. Johnson was a committee back his first two years at Iowa, then broke out with 240-1,537-21 rushing last fall. He's a powerful downhill runner who's hard to bring down if you hit him high. It's easy to envision him being an effective goal-line back in the NFL. A good fit for offensive coordinator Arthur Smith's zone-running scheme in Pittsburgh, Johnson is a patient runner who reads his blocks well. He doesn't have great long speed, doesn't change speeds often or make sharp cuts. Still, Johnson landed in a favorable spot and could make a big impact right away.
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64.
Aaron Jones Sr.
RB - MIN (vs . GB)
Aaron Jones has a reputation for being brittle, but he's played 17 regular-season games in two of the last three years. He's coming off a solid season for the Vikings in which he had 1,546 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns, good for an RB16 finish in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. Age is a concern with Jones, who turns 31 in December, and newcomer Jordan Mason could potentially cut into Jones' workload. But Jones performed well last season, and he'll be running behind a refurbished offensive line. He could be a value in your fantasy draft.
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65.
Baker Mayfield
QB - TB (vs . CAR)
Baker Mayfield is coming off a career year as the QB4 in fantasy points per game. He led an offense that ranked eighth in pass rate over expectation. Mayfield ranked fifth in passing attempts, third in passing yards, and second in passing touchdowns. Mayfield's passing touchdowns could regress some in 2025, as he had 41 last year when he has never eclipsed 30 before. Now, that doesn't mean his passing touchdowns will drop back into the 20s, but I do expect him to finish somewhere in the mid-30s. Another area where Mayfield could see some regressing is in the rushing department. Last year, he finished with 378 rushing yards (10th-best) and three rushing scores (12th-best). Both of those figures were also career highs. I'm not trying to take anything away from Mayfield because he was studly on a per-dropback basis. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he was seventh in yards per attempt and CPOE and second in highly accurate throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Mayfield should backslide in a number of categories this season, but he is still in a pass-happy offense, surrounded by an awesome cast of skill weapons, and is playing the best football of his career. Mayfield is a strong QB1.
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66.
George Pickens
WR - DAL (at NYG)
An extremely polarizing player, George Pickens went from Pittsburgh to Dallas in an offseason trade. Known for circus catches and erratic on-field behavior, Pickens will now have to share targets with one of the best receivers in the game, CeeDee Lamb.
But playing with Lamb might help Pickens. He might get less defensive attention and matchups against lesser cornerbacks. Pickens will also get to play with Dak Prescott, one of the better pure passers in the league. By no means is Pickens an A-plus route-runner, but Pickens' ball skills are extraordinary. There are very few receivers as good at the catch point as George Pickens is. I think Pickens is worth considering at his midrange WR3 price. |
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67.
Tony Pollard
RB - TEN (at JAC)
Once a high-efficiency darling as the backup to Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas, Tony Pollard has played a bigger role the last two years, but his efficiency has plummeted. Pollard averaged 5.1 yards per carry and 6.3 yards per target over his first four NFL seasons. He's averaged 4.1 yards per carry and 4.4 yards per target as a lead RB the last two seasons. Pollard finished RB22 in half-point PPR fantasy points per game in 2022, RB23 last year. It appears that might be the ceiling for Pollard, and there's risk that he could lose more of his workload to talented backup Tyjae Spears in 2025.
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68.
Isiah Pacheco
RB - KC (at LV)
Isiah Pacheco fractured fibula early last season and was back in roughly two and a half months. Upon his return, he wasn't the same player and was unable to reclaim the lead RB role from Kareem Hunt. But it's hard to imagine Pacheco was anything close to 100% after coming back from a broken leg in under three months. Pacheco was being drafted in the mid to late second round last year , and now you can get him in the seventh round in most drafts. In a backfield that includes Hunt, Elijah Mitchell and Brashard Smith, I still think Pacheco is the best lead-RB candidate the Chiefs have. Pacheco looks like a draft value.
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69.
Tetairoa McMillan
WR - CAR (at TB)
Tetairoa McMillan topped 1,300 receiving yards in each of his last two college seasons at the University of Arizona and is now poised to immediately become the Panthers' No. 1 receiver after Carolina took him with the eighth overall pick in the draft. The 6-foot-5 McMillan is a classic X receiver -- although he can also be a matchup nightmare as a big slot receiver. He has a planetary catch radius and good, strong hands. He also has advanced route-running chops, a good feel for attacking zone coverage, and he's no shrinking violet when asked to go over the middle.
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70.
Mark Andrews
TE - BAL (at PIT)
Andrews is one of the best tight end values this year with the talent to revisit top 3-5 fantasy tight end status. Last year, Andrews was the TE7 in fantasy points per game, but it was heavily influenced by his 11 receiving scores as he ranked only 14th in receptions and ninth in receiving yards among tight ends. His recovery from tightrope surgery impacted his early season effectiveness and usage. In Weeks 1-9, he was the TE16 in fantasy points per game, posting an 11.3% target share, an 18% TPRR, 1.77 YPRR, 32.1 receiving yards per game, a 13.9% first-read share, and 0.110 first downs per route run. After Week 9, every discernable per-route metric that we should care about improved for Andrews as he posted an 18.1% target share, a 24% TPRR, 2.31 YPRR, 48 receiving yards per game, an 18.9% first-read share, and 0.127 first downs per route run as the TE5 in fantasy points per game (per Fantasy Points Data). Buy the dip on Andrews and enjoy another stellar year from the Baltimore stalwart.
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71.
Brian Robinson Jr.
RB - WAS (at PHI)
Brian Robinson is a solid if unspectacular early-down back. The real appeal is that he plays in an ascendant offense with what should be a pretty good offensive line. Robinson also benefits from playing with QB Jayden Daniels, since mobile QBs tend to boost the efficiency of their running backs. But Robinson doesn't offer much as a pass catcher -- he had 20 receptions in 14 games last year -- and will give way to Austin Ekeler on passing downs. And don't discount the possibility that intriguing seventh-round draft pick Jacorey Croskey-Merritt could threaten B-Rob's workload.
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72.
Jaylen Waddle
WR - MIA (at NE)
Jaylen Waddle is a compelling buy-low candidate after a season in which he had only 744 receiving yards and 2 TDs. Part of that was due to a Tua Tagolaivoa concussion that left the Miami passing game dead in the water while Tua was out. With Jonnu Smith having left Miami for Pittsburgh, Waddle could conceivably get more snaps from the slot and see more of the easy throws that turned Jonnu into a PPR monster last year. Let's not forget what a good player Waddle is. He had the most yards per route run in college since 2020 (which includes guys like Ja'Marr Chase and CeeDee Lamb). Waddle was the No. 6 overall draft pick in 2021. He had three straight 1,000-yard seasons to begin his NFL career. Don't sleep on him after a statistically disappointing year.
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73.
Jordan Addison
WR - MIN (vs . GB)
Jordan Addison is only 23 years old, and he's already had a 10-touchdown season and a nine-touchdown season in the NFL. Despite having to share targets with Justin Jefferson, Addison has finished WR21 and WR20 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring the last two years. If your rivals are concerned that Addison plays with a top receiver and will be playing with a quarterback, J.J. McCarthy, who hasn't taken a regular-season snap, capitalize on the discount.
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74.
Travis Hunter
CB,WR - JAC (vs . TEN)
Will WR-CB Travis Hunter be the Shohei Ohtani of the NFL, providing rare two-way value? Hunter is a ridiculously fluid athlete with extraordinary ball skills. His route running needs refinement, but it's scary to think about how good he could become once he develops that part of his game. The big question is Hunter's role. He played both wide receiver and cornerback in college, and some people believe he's better as a cornerback. The Jaguars, who traded up to select Hunter second overall in this year's draft, say they intend to use Hunter primarily as a wide receiver in his rookie year, though Hunter has made it clear he wants to play both ways. Does double duty end up limiting Hunter's offensive snaps? Abbreviated offensive usage could crush Hunter's fantasy value. It makes Hunter a fascinating case study, and he'll pose a major dilemma for fantasy managers in this year's drafts.
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75.
Bo Nix
QB - DEN (vs . LAC)
I was down on Bo Nix entering last season. Early on, it looked like I was right about my evaluation of him as a prospect. Nix STRUGGLED out of the gate before turning it on in Week 5. Once the candle was lit for Nix, he coffin nailed my evaluation of his upside in the NFL. In Weeks 5-18, Nix was the QB6 in fantasy points per game, ranking 15th in yards per attempt, tenth in CPOE, ninth in highly accurate throw rate, and eighth in fantasy points per dropback (per Fantasy Points Data). I've never been happier being proved wrong. He was nothing short of amazing and placed third in the NFL Rookie of the Year voting. He also provided rushing upside, which I didn't expect in the NFL. Last year, he ranked tenth in carries per game and eighth in rushing yards among quarterbacks. Denver added Pat Bryant, R.J. Harvey, J.K. Dobbins, and Evan Engram to this offense in the offseason. Nix could take another step in 2025 with the added weaponry and be a top-five quarterback.
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76.
Kyler Murray
QB - ARI (at LAR)
Kyler Murray finished as the QB12 in fantasy points per game last year with 18.1 points per game. He has settled into this realm over the last three seasons with 18.1-18.9 points per game. Rushing was still a big part of his production, as he ranked fourth in rushing yards and seventh in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks. Murray is the epitome of "better in best ball than redraft." If you had him on any of your teams last year, you perfectly understood the frustration with rostering Murray that his QB12 finish doesn't explain. Last year, he had five top-five weekly finishes, with an average of 26.2 fantasy points per game. Sandwiched around those week-winning performances were nine weeks where he was the QB15 or lower in weekly scoring. Murray is a player where you know the ceiling outcome exists weekly, but you see it so infrequently that you can never be sure when to plug him into a lineup. His passing numbers were nothing to write home about last year. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 20th in yards per attempt and highly accurate throw rate, 18th in CPOE, and 16th in passer rating (per Fantasy Points Data). Murray is a top-15 fantasy quarterback who could finish as a QB1 again in 2025 because of his rushing production.
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77.
T.J. Hockenson
TE - MIN (vs . GB)
After T.J. Hockenson returned last year, he was the TE16 in fantasy points per game. This is largely due to the fact that despite drawing eight red zone targets in ten games played, he failed to score a single touchdown last year. Hockenson was the TE10 in expected fantasy points per game last season. Minnesota ramped him up slowly with a 45.2-47.9% snap rate in his first three games. After Week 11, he played 61% or higher snaps weekly. Overall, among 47 qualifying tight ends, Hockenson ranked 13th in target share (16.2%), eighth in receiving yards per game (45.5), 15th in yards per route run (1.65), and fifth-best in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Another year away from his torn ACL, Hockenson should see his per-route efficiency improve, as he will be a strong TE1 in 2025.
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78.
Chris Godwin
WR - TB (vs . CAR)
Chris Godwin has a midrange WR3, which seems unexpectedly affordable for a guy who was WR1 in PPR scoring through the first six weeks of the 2024 season. But Godwin is coming back from a dislocated ankle and fractured fibula, and the Buccaneers have since added first-round draft pick Emeka Egbuka, who, like Godwin, does his best work in the slot. With the likelihood of increased target competition and the possibility that Godwin won't be at 100% capacity this season post-injury, it might be worth pumping the brakes in 2025 fantasy drafts even though Godwin is a trusted brand name.
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79.
Chris Olave
WR - NO (at ATL)
Chris Olave was going in the late second or early third round of fantasy drafts the last couple of years. Now he's being drafted as a low-end WR3 and typically coming off the board in the sixth or seventh round. Olave had two 1,000-yard seasons to begin his career before last year's injury-shortened campaign. He's a terrific route-runner with big-time speed. Olave has averaged 2.21 yards per route run for his career, which is excellent.
But people are understandably nervous about his concussion issues and his quarterback situation. It's impossible to quantify the concussion risk, but I'm not terribly concerned about the QB factor. Even the very worst passing attacks in the league typically generate at least 3,000 passing yards, and with the Saints lacking other credible pass catchers, Olave is in line for a sizable chunk of that yardage. |
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80.
Rome Odunze
WR - CHI (vs . DET)
Rome Odunze didn't come close to producing as many had hoped during his rookie season. He finished as the WR56 in fantasy points per game despite sitting as the WR37 in expected fantasy points per game. Yes, Caleb Williams and target competition were massive problems for Odunze last year. Both of those factors remain prevalent when projecting how his 2025 season could unfold. Chicago jettisoned Keenan Allen but arguably added more talent in the process with the additions of Colston Loveland and Luther Burden. Caleb Williams, despite all of the Ben Johnson hope and hype, still has plenty of question marks swirling around him. Last year, among 85 qualifying wide receivers, Odunze ranked 84th in catchable target rate. Woof! His overall numbers didn't look much better among the same sample of pass catchers, as he was 46th in target share, 50th in receiving yards per game, and 65th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Those numbers don't look any better, even if you attempt to account for Williams' inaccuracy. Last year, Odunze also ranked 78th in separation and 54th in route win rate. If we filter only for catchable targets and exclude screens, Odunze ranked 61st in yards per route run and first downs per route run. It's tough to draft Odunze aggressively this season. If he falls in a draft (unlikely), I'll scoop him up, but he's not a player I'm prioritizing this season. He's a worrisome WR3/4.
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81.
Quinshon Judkins
RB - CLE (at CIN)
The Cleveland Browns took Quinshon Judkins early in the second round of this year's draft and will probably use him as their lead back, though he'll have to fend off competition from veteran Jerome Ford and fellow rookie Dylan Sampson. A powerful, decisive runner with good contact balance and nifty feet, Quinshon Judkins had 1,567 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns as a true freshman at Ole Miss. His last two college seasons were good but not quite as awe-inspiring. The limitation of the Cleveland offense could keep Judkins' fantasy value in check this year, but he has a chance to provide RB3 or flex value, if not more. But a domestic violence arrest in July could complicate Judkins' rookie-year outlook.
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82.
Jerry Jeudy
WR - CLE (at CIN)
Deshaun Watson started seven games for the Browns in 2024, and Jerry Jeudy averaged three catches and 38 receiving yards in those games. Jameis Winson started seven games for the Browns, and Jeudy averaged seven catches and 112.3 yards in those games. Down the stretch, Dorian Thompson-Robinson and Bailey Zappe combined to make three starts for the Browns, and Jeudy averaged 6.7 catches and 59 yards in those games. The point is that Jeudy produced compelling numbers with every QB he played with last season other than Watson. With so many questions about the Browns' murky QB situation in 2025, Jeudy might not be able to match his 90-catch, 1,229-yard performance from 2024, but his fifth-year surge was legit, and he looks like a bargain at his lower-end WR3 ADP.
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83.
Najee Harris
RB - LAC (at DEN)
Harris was brought in on a one-year deal this offseason. Los Angeles then proceeded to add to their backfield with the selection of Omarion Hampton in the first round of the NFL Draft. Hampton could take over this backfield in short order, but it's also possible that Harris will end up forcing a frustrating committee that crushes the hope of Hampton stans. Harris's eye injury stemming from a firework incident does throw some cold water on Harris's projection and adds fuel to the fires for Hampton believers. At this point, we know who Harris is. A volume back and jack of all trades but master of none. He's a solid but unspectacular player. Last year, he ranked 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt, 27th in yards after contact per attempt, and 20th in yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Harris is a decent flex play for 2025, but the bottom could fall out quickly for his value if Hampton assumes control of the backfield workload at the beginning of the season.
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84.
Travis Kelce
TE - KC (at LV)
Travis Kelce finished with the fewest receiving yards of his career since becoming a starter in 2014. He still gobbled up targets, but he was hopelessly inefficient last year, and entering his age-35 season, I'm not sure if that changes. Last year, he finished as the TE6 in fantasy points per game, which was aided by Andy Reid's pass-happy offense and Kelce having the third-most targets among tight ends. Among 47 qualifying tight ends, Kelce ranked fourth in target share (22%), fifth in receiving yards per game (51.4), and first in red zone targets, but that's where the good news stops, as he was also 18th in yards per route run (1.62), 40th in yards after the catch per reception (3.86), and 18th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Kelce will be peppered with volume again this year and finish as a TE1, but the days of him being a top-three fantasy tight-end option are gone.
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85.
Tyrone Tracy Jr.
RB - NYG (vs . DAL)
A fifth-round draft pick out of Purdue, Tyrone Tracy turned in an impressive rookie season for the Giants. He had 192-839-5 rushing and 38-284-1 receiving, good for an RB26 finish in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. Fumbling was an issue for Tracy, who coughed up the ball five times. The Giants drafted Arizona State RB Cam Skattebo, so Tracy figures to be part of a timeshare arrangement this season. But as a former college wide receiver, Tracy figures to get more of the passing-game work.
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86.
Justin Fields
QB - NYJ (at BUF)
Over the last three seasons, when he has been a starting quarterback, Justin Fields has finished inside the top ten fantasy quarterbacks in fantasy points per game (QB7, QB9, QB5). Last year, in his six starts for Pittsburgh, he was the QB7 in fantasy points per game while averaging 9.2 carries and 38.5 rushing yards per game. If Fields had kept up that rushing pace for the entire season he would have finished fifth in rushing yards per game among quarterbacks immediately behind Jalen Hurts. He also took a step forward as a passer last year. In Weeks 1-6, among 31 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 17th in CPOE, fourth-best in highly accurate throw rate, 12th-best in catchable target rate, and he boasted the ninth-lowest turnover-worthy throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). The weapons surrounding Fields aren't amazing, but he's not being asked to work with a totally barren skill cupboard as Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, & Mason Taylor should all be dependable receiving options. The Jets also have an offensive line that should have no problems buying him time in the pocket. Fields is a locked-in top-ten fantasy quarterback this season.
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87.
Tucker Kraft
TE - GB (at MIN)
Last year, Tucker Kraft stepped up as Green Bay's clear present and future starting tight end. The South Dakota State alum finished as the TE14 in fantasy points per game in the Packers' run-heavy offense. Green Bay loves its committee approach with the passing game, so it's tough to see Kraft becoming a high-end target earner in this offense, but he has the talent to do so. Last year, among 47 qualifying tight ends, Kraft ranked 20th in target share and 27th in first read share, but he posted top 12 marks in receiving yards per game (12th-best), yards per route run (seventh), missed tackles forced (third), and yards after the catch per reception (first). Green Bay did feed him an 18.5% designed target rate (second-best among tight ends), but he wasn't the first option on many passing plays. Kraft proved he has the talent to take the next step and become a focal point if the Green Bay offensive design changes in 2025. Kraft is a wild card TE1.
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88.
Jayden Reed
WR - GB (at MIN)
Jayden Reed was a fantasy darling entering the 2024 season after posting a WR26 in fantasy points per game season and ten total touchdowns. His stock came crashing down last year (WR38) as Green Bay continued their stubborn usage of a wide receiver room by committee, and the passing volume dried up. Among 85 qualifying receivers (per Fantasy Points Data), Reed ranked 15th in yards per route run, but he was outside the top 40 receivers in target share (52nd, 15.7%), receiving yards per game (41st, 50.4), first-read share (49th, 19.9%), and first downs per route run (51st, 0.080). Unless you're a hyper-efficient receiver, like Reed was in 2023, it's difficult to produce when you're only running a route on 69.3% of dropbacks (64th). Reed is a WR4 who could revisit WR3 production in 2025 if he runs hot again with efficiency and touchdowns.
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89.
Jauan Jennings
WR - SF (vs . SEA)
In his age-27 season, Jauan Jennings broke out in a BIG way last year. In Weeks 10-18, without Brandon Aiyuk, as a full-time player, he had a 25.1% target share, averaged 63.4 receiving yards per game, produced 2.23 yards per route run with a 32.7% first-read share and 0.113 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). To put those numbers into context, over a full season among all wide receivers with at least 50 targets, Jennings would have ranked tenth, 23rd, 22nd, 11th, and 14th in those categories while averaging 14.1 PPR fantasy points per game, which would have equaled the WR26. If we add in his monster week 3 performance, those stats jump with Jennings commanding a 26.5% target share, producing 74.6 receiving yards per game with 2.57 yards per route run, commanding a 33.6% first-read share, and churning out 0.124 first downs per route run. Adding in that one game would also boost his fantasy points per game to 17.4 points per game, which would have made him the WR10 for the season. Can Jennings reproduce these types of numbers across a full season in 2025? Well, we're about to find out. If he can, he'll be one of the best values of draft season. If not, he won't bury your fantasy team as a player that you're likely drafting as a WR3/4. Jennings is a player with a ton of upside that isn't baked into his ADP.
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90.
Deebo Samuel Sr.
WR - WAS (at PHI)
Deebo Samuel had a tough 2024 season, during which he dealt with numerous injuries. Last year alone, he dealt with a calf strain, pneumonia, a hamstring strain, and rib issues. Samuel has accumulated a lengthy medical record throughout the years. The injury risk remains entering 2025, with Samuel being a year older and his playing style as a bruising, tackle-breaking underneath threat continuing. The 49ers dealt Samuel to Washington this offseason as the Commanders were searching for weapons to add to the fold for Jayden Daniels. If we can get past Samuel's question marks on paper, it's a nice marriage. Last year, Washington ranked sixth in screen passes (per Fantasy Points Data). This should be Samuel's role to grab in 2025 as Washington's WR2. Last year, Samuel was the WR46 in fantasy points per game while ranking 47th in target share (17.2%) and receiving yards per game (44.7), 53rd in yards per route run (1.69), and 63rd in first downs per route run. He logged the lowest yards after catch per reception of his career last season. All of the per-route metrics for Samuel are trending in the wrong direction. This isn't a player that I'll be drafting much at cost in 2025, but if he slips far enough in a draft, then I'll possibly hit the draft button. Samuel is a WR4 with more appeal in PPR formats.
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91.
David Njoku
TE - CLE (at CIN)
Last year, David Njoku finished as the TE4 in fantasy points per game, easily the best per-game production of his career. He did miss seven games last year, though, with hamstring and ankle issues. Injuries have sadly been a part of Njoku's career, and at this point, I don't think they are going away, so they have to be factored into his 2025 equation. Last season, among 47 qualifying tight ends, Njoku commanded a ton of volume, ranking fifth in target share (21%), seventh in receiving yards per game (45.9), and sixth in first-read share (21.7%, per Fantasy Points Data), but he wasn't efficient with his volume ranking 32nd in first downs per route run and yards per route run. Injuries, efficiency concerns, quarterback worries, and target competition are all factors that impact his 2025 outlook. Njoku will likely finish as a low-end TE1 this season, but I'm not targeting him aggressively.
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92.
Brock Purdy
QB - SF (vs . SEA)
Brock Purdy continues to hum along as a QB1 in fantasy after finishing as the QB10 and QB6 in fantasy points per game over the last two seasons. Last year, Purdy flashed some rushing upside, too, as he ranked 11th in rushing yards and seventh in rushing scores among quarterbacks. Last year, he ranked third in yards per attempt, ninth in CPOE, and tenth in fantasy points per dropback. While Brandon Aiyuk could get off to a slow start this season, Purdy still has plenty of weapons at his disposal with Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, and Jauan Jennings. Purdy should lead one of the best offenses in the NFL again this season that could be pushed to throw more if their defense takes a hit.
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93.
Caleb Williams
QB - CHI (vs . DET)
Let's call a spade a spade here. Caleb Williams had a VERY tough rookie season. The ballyhooed savior of the Windy City didn't exactly have the start to his career that many people hoped for and hyped. Williams was the QB21 in fantasy points per game, which was aided greatly by his legs (seventh in rushing yards among quarterbacks). Williams was the QB12 in expected fantasy points per game, so the disappointment was very real. When we discuss what he did as a passer, the true tragedy becomes apparent. Last year, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Williams ranked 34th in yards per attempt, 24th in CPOE, and 26th in highly accurate throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Williams had the ninth-highest off-target rate and the second-lowest catchable target rate (only Anthony Richardson was worse). The Bears have added a TON of personnel to help Williams find his footing in year two with offensive line upgrades, a strong play-caller (Ben Johnson), and the additions of Luther Burden and Colston Loveland. I do believe Williams will take a step forward, but the real question is how much. Williams is best viewed as a dice roll QB2.
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94.
Travis Etienne Jr.
RB - JAC (vs . TEN)
Travis Etienne is going into the final year of his contract. He was outplayed by Tank Bigsby last season, and now the Jaguars have drafted the speedy Bhayshul Tuten. Etienne had 1,484 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns in 2023. He was terrific over the first half of that season but slowed down in the second half. Then the bottom fell out last year. Etienne averaged 3.7 yards per carry last season. More damning is that he averaged minus-0.28 rushing yards over expected per carry, per NFL Next Gen Stats. It's possible Etienne goes back to being the playmaker he was as a rookie in 2022 and for the first half of the 2023 season. But it's possible the Jaguars marginalize Etienne in 2025 and let him walk after the season.
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95.
Jaylen Warren
RB - PIT (vs . BAL)
Jaylen Warren should once again have something close to a half share of the Pittsburgh backfield, with his tag-team partner now rookie Kaleb Johnson instead of Najee Harris. Warren is 5-8, 215 pounds, so he isn't cut out to handle 20 carries a game. But Warren has averaged 61.7 scrimmage yards per game over the last two years while sharing work with Harris, who didn't miss any games over that stretch. Warren has averaged 4.8 yards per carry over his NFL career but has never averaged more than 8.8 carries per game in any of his three NFL seasons. The workload may not expand significantly, but perhaps we can squeeze a few more touchdowns out of Warren, who's scored only six TDs in 48 career games.
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96.
Justin Herbert
QB - LAC (at DEN)
Last year, Justin Herbert finished as the QB14 in fantasy points per game, but his season was a tale of two halves. Herbert sustained a foot injury in camp and a high ankle sprain in Week 3 that impacted his early season efficiency. In Weeks 1-6, Herbert was the QB27 in fantasy points per game, averaging 163 passing yards per game with 6.5 yards per attempt and 5.2 rushing yards per game. In Weeks 7-18, all of those numbers improved as he was the QB11 in fantasy points per game. During that span, among 32 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked seventh in passing yards per game (254.6), sixth in yards per attempt (8.1), fourth in CPOE, second in hero throw rate, and averaged 23.3 rushing yards (per Fantasy Points Data). With more receiving options added to the depth chart this offseason, Herbert could be a QB1 this season, but he's best viewed as a rock-solid QB2.
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97.
Dak Prescott
QB - DAL (at NYG)
Prescott is an amazing late-round quarterback value. He is primed to return to the QB1 ranks in 2025. With George Pickens added opposite CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, and Jalen Tolbert, Prescott has enough weaponry at his disposal to excel in Dallas's pass-centric offense. Last year, in Weeks 1-8, Dallas ranked eighth in neutral passing rate and tenth in pass rate over expectation. Last year, Prescott's passing touchdown rate dipped to 3.8%, which was the first time since 2020 that his passing touchdown rate had dipped below 5.8%. Prescott will throw for more touchdowns in 2025. We're only one season removed from him finishing as the QB4 in fantasy points per game, seventh in yards per attempt, eighth in CPOE, and sixth-best in highly accurate throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Invest in Prescott.
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98.
Jared Goff
QB - DET (at CHI)
Last year, Jared Goff's 6.9% passing touchdown rate (third-best in the NFL) carried him to a QB7 finish in fantasy points per game. His previous best finish in fantasy points per game was QB11 in 2023. Goff could be a QB1 again in 2025, but he'll have to continue to be a touchdown outlier. He doesn't have the rushing equity to offset a downtick in the passing department. Goff's previous best passing touchdown rate as a Lion was 5.0%. This isn't to say Goff hasn't been and won't again this year be a damn good starting NFL quarterback. Last year, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked second in yards per attempt, 12th in CPOE, and fourth in highly accurate throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Goff is best viewed as a top-15 fantasy quarterback who could be a low-end QB1 again in 2025.
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99.
Evan Engram
TE - DEN (vs . LAC)
Evan Engram could SMASH his ADP this year as Sean Payton's Joker. Everyone will point to last year as a reason to have worries about Engram, who ranked 20th in yards per route run, but his target-drawing ability was just fine, ranking fifth in targets per route run and third in target share. He was also dealing with shoulder and hamstring issues. Those were his first injuries to deal with during a season since 2021. In Engram's two previous seasons, he ranked 13th and 14th in yards per route run and second and 12th in target share (per Fantasy Points Data). Also, in 2023-2024, Engram excelled in one of the hallmark metrics that I look at when evaluating talent and upside at the tight end position: yards per route run versus man coverage. In those seasons, Engram ranked fourth and eighth in this metric. Engram's best competition for targets is Courtland Sutton. Engram could lead Denver in targets this season. If that happens, he'll likely be knocking on the door of the top 3-5 tight ends in 2025.
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100.
Jordan Mason
RB - MIN (vs . GB)
When the Vikings traded for Jordan Mason in the offseason, they immediately gave him a two-year deal that includes more than $7 million in guaranteed money, suggesting that they have plans for him. With Christian McCaffrey sidelined at the start of the 2024 season, Mason averaged 107 rushing yards for the 49ers over the first five games of the season (before getting hurt himself), 120 scrimmage yards per game, and 5.1 yards per carry. The Vikings' running scheme uses a lot of outside zone, which is right up Mason's alley. Mason could have some stand-alone value this season, and he'd become immensely valuable if anything happened to 30-year-old Vikings RB Aaron Jones.
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101.
Jakobi Meyers
WR - LV (vs . KC)
The rock-steady Jakobi Meyers established single-season highs in receptions (87) and receiving yards (1,027) last season despite missing two games. Although the Raiders added WRs Jack Bech and Dont'e Thornton in the draft, Meyers is likely to remain the No. 2 target in Las Vegas behind star TE Brock Bowers. The arrival of QB Geno Smith, who threw for more than 4,300 yards last season, and new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly, who favors a brisk pace, could boost Meyers' fantasy value. Just don't expect a TD bonanza. Meyers has scored 20 touchdowns in 91 career games.
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102.
Ricky Pearsall
WR - SF (vs . SEA)
A late-first-round pick in last year's NFL Draft, Ricky Pearsall played 11 games as a rookie after recovering from a gunshot sustained in an attempted robbery. He caught fire down the stretch, with 8-141-1 vs. the Lions in Week 17 and 6-69-1 vs. the Cardinals in Week 18. Pearsall is 6-foot-1, has 4.4 speed, and he's going to have a full-time role in the 49ers' offense. It's possible he emerges as the 49ers' top wide receiver this year, and he looks like a value at his WR4 price.
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103.
Khalil Shakir
WR - BUF (vs . NYJ)
Last year, Khalil Shakir broke out as the Bills' number-one receiver. Now, this breakout didn't lead to a wonderous eruption of fantasy points, but it was a solid season that offered hope that his 2025 season could be even better. He finished as the WR33 in fantasy points per game. In Weeks 1-6, Shakir garnered a 16.3% target share with 49.8 receiving yards per game, 2.62 yards per route run, a 16.9% first-read share, and 0.126 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Shakir's yards per route run and first downs per route run in that sample were elite, but his market share numbers were middling at best. Well, the Bills noticed Shakir was balling out on a per-route basis and increased his role. In Weeks 7-17, Shakir saw a 23.1% target share with 57.2 receiving yards per game, 2.15 yards per route run, a 27.9% first-read share, and 0.086 first downs per route run. The efficiency numbers took a dip, but he was featured more heavily while also seeing eight red zone targets in that ten-game stretch (only two touchdowns). If Shakir earns even more of this passing offense in 2025 and can marry the elevated role in the offense with improved efficiency, he could flirt with WR2 value. Shakir is best viewed as a solid WR3/flex with upside for more in 2025.
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104.
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB - NE (vs . MIA)
Rhamondre Stevenson may have peaked with his 1,040-yard rushing season in 2022. He missed five games in 2023, and his 2024 season was a disappointment. Stevenson averaged a career-low 3.9 yards per carry last season, and his seven fumbles cost him some playing time. Now, the Patriots have added playmaking RB TreVeyon Henderson, a second-round draft pick. A 50/50 workload split might be the best Stevenson investors could hope for in 2025.
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105.
Zach Charbonnet
RB - SEA (at SF)
Zach Charbonnet has been good for the Seahawks whenever he's gotten an opportunity. He averaged 3.35 yards after contact per carry last year and forced 32 missed tackles on only 135 rushing attempts. When Kenneth Walker was hurt, Charbonnet had a two-touchdown game against Miami and another two touchdowns against Arizona. Charbonnet has been good as a pass catcher, with 75 catches over his first two seasons. Charbonnet is one of the most valuable handcuff running backs, and he might even offer some stand-alone value.
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106.
Javonte Williams
RB - DAL (at NYG)
Javonte Williams recently said he's just starting to feel like his old self after tearing his ACL and LCL in 2022 after an impressive rookie season in 2021. Williams came back in 2023 but had a mediocre year, and he wasn't very effective last year either. Williams did have a career-high 52 catches in 2024, but for only 346 receiving yards and no touchdowns. He didn't didn't have a 100-yard rushing game for the Broncos all season and averaged 3.7 yards per carry. Exclude a two-touchdown game against a bad Saints run defense, and Williams averaged 6.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. But Williams is only 25, and he has a good chance to be the lead RB in Dallas, where his competitors for touches are . Miles Sanders and rookies, Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah. It's not inconceivable that Williams could return to fantasy prominence in 2025 if indeed he's fully healthy.
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107.
Drake Maye
QB - NE (vs . MIA)
Drake Maye made the best he could last year with a pitiful supporting cast. His offensive line was patchwork at best, and arguably, his top two pass catchers were Hunter Henry and Demario Douglas. Despite all of this, in the nine games Maye played at least 90% of the snaps, he averaged 18.7 fantasy points per game, which would have placed him as the QB11 last year. In those contests, he averaged. 36.8 rushing yards per game, which would have ranked fifth among quarterbacks last season. Overall, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Maye ranked 27th in yards per attempt, 17th in CPOE, 11th in highly accurate throw rate, 18th in hero throw rate, and had the 13th-highest turnover-worthy throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). The rushing output will factor in heavily this season for Maye and his fantasy outlook. The additions of Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, Kyle Williams, offensive line help, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels can only help Maye in 2025. He's a strong QB2 who could finish as a QB1 this season.
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108.
Jordan Love
QB - GB (at MIN)
Jordan Love wasn't able to follow up on his massive 2024 breakout campaign with another successful season. Injuries played a sizable role in this, as Love sustained a sprained MCL in Week 1 and a groin injury in Week 8. In Weeks 4-17, after his return from the knee injury, he was the QB14 in fantasy points per game. Overall, he finished 15th in CPOE, 37th in highly accurate throw rate, and 24th in catchable target rate (per Fantasy Points Data). With the lower half ailments, he only amassed 83 rushing yards as well after piling up 247 in the previous season. It all went off the rails as the Packers tried to protect Love, as they had the second-highest neutral rushing rate behind only the Eagles. Love may bounce back with a strong QB1 season, but it's equally possible he turns in a nice season from a real football perspective only to turn in QB2 fantasy numbers.
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109.
Brandon Aiyuk
WR - SF (vs . SEA)
Brandon Aiyuk tore his ACL in Week 7 of last season, so it's up in the air how effective Aiyuk will be this season and when he'll be back to full strength. When Aiyuk was on the field last year, he was filling the box scores with disappointing stat lines as the WR55 in fantasy points per game. He didn't score a single touchdown and managed only one game with more than 50 receiving yards. Overall, he had a 20.5% target share, 1.85 yards per route run, a 21.7% first-read share, and 0.095 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Those are solid marks, but they don't match up with his still stellar per-route numbers. Among 112 qualifying receivers last season, Aiyuk led the NFL in separation and route win rate. Aiyuk is a decent dart throw in 2025, but don't count on him to be a major contributor to any fantasy team until possibly late in the season.
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110.
Tank Bigsby
RB - JAC (vs . TEN)
Tank Bigsby was very effective as a runner in 2024. He had 168-766-7 rushing, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Etienne averaged 3.7 yards per carry. Bigsby averaged 3.74 yards after contact per carry, which ranked third among RBs with at least 60 carries. He forced 46 missed tackles last year, tied for 13th most. Bigsby averaged 0.74 rushing yards over expected per carry, the ninth-best mark in the league. But Bigsby is basically a zero as a pass catcher -- he has eight receptions in 33 NFL games -- and the Jacksonville backfield is crowded, with Travis Etienne and a pair of rookies, Bhayshul Tutan and LeQuint Allen, also in the mix.
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111.
Tyler Warren
TE - IND (at HOU)
Warren got the ballyhooed first-round draft capital that we all figured he would. The landing spot is rough, though. Indy has a ton of talented pass-catching options that will push Warren weekly for target volume. Michael Pittman and Josh Downs presumably will be above him in the target pecking order. I still love Warren as a player, but I'm worried that he could struggle to live up to the hype that his talent has deserved. The passing volume, quarterback play, and receiving depth chart are all big-time concerns for his 2025 outlook. Last year, Indy had the third-lowest passing rate inside the red zone and in neutral game environments. During his final collegiate season, Warren ranked in the top three among tight ends in yards per route run, receiving grade, missed tackles forced, and yards after the catch (per PFF). Warren is a TE2 that could easily finish as a TE1.
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112.
Cam Skattebo
RB - NYG (vs . DAL)
After a monster season for Arizona State in which he had 293-1,711-21 rushing and 45-605-3 receiving, Cam Skattebo now heads to the Giants, where he'll work in tandem with talented second-year RB Tyrone Tracy. Casual college football fans learned Skattebo's name when he had 233 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns in Arizona State's overtime loss to Texas in the College Football Playoffs. Skattebo's ultra-physical style belies his 5-11, 215-pound frame. Skattebo keeps his feet pumping through contact and always seems to be falling forward at the end of runs. The guess here is that Skattebo and Tracy will split work pretty evenly, but it seems a good bet that Skattebo will a majority of the goal-line carries.
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113.
Stefon Diggs
WR - NE (vs . MIA)
Stefon Diggs tore his ACL last October, which is why he's a relative afterthought in early 2025 fantasy drafts, his ADP sitting in WR4 range. Diggs says he's ahead of schedule in his recovery and is trying to be ready for Week 1. Dr. Deepak Chona, a well-regarded sports injury analyst, believes there's a two-thirds chance that Diggs will be good to go for Week 1, and that Diggs will be at 90% of full capacity about a month into the season. Diggs is immediately going to become Drake Maye's No. 1 receiver in New England. Before his injury-shortened 2024 season, Diggs had topped 1,000 yards in six straight seasons, and he was on a 1,000-yard pace when he got hurt last year. He may not be the same player he was in 2020, when he had 127 catches and 1535 yards and helped Josh Allen make the jump from promising young QB to superstar, but can he be a top-25 receiver? I believe he can be, which is why Diggs is one of my favorite draft targets.
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114.
Dalton Kincaid
TE - BUF (vs . NYJ)
Dalton Kincaid dealt with injuries last season (knee/shoulder) that derailed his season after Week 9. Last year, in Weeks 1-9, he was the TE15 in fantasy points per game, which is a massive disappointment for a player with his talent in a scoring-rich environment in Buffalo. During that stretch, among 38 qualifying tight ends, he ranked sixth in target share (19.2%) and first-read share (21.3%), 18th in receiving yards per game (36.9), 17th in yards per route run (1.71), and 15th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). His market share in the Bills offense is encouraging, but his per-route efficiency is concerning, as well as his 64.9% route per dropback rate (19th). If Buffalo is determined to cap his route share because of Dawson Knox and their offensive design, Kincaid will need to be a hyper-efficient player to reach TE1 land. Kincaid is a TE2 bet on talent and the hope that his role grows in 2025.
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115.
Josh Downs
WR - IND (at HOU)
Downs displayed real growth in year two, finishing as the WR28 in fantasy points per game, but it still doesn't tell the entire story of his 2024 season. That end-of-season finish doesn't fully illustrate Downs' upside. In the games that Joe Flacco played at least 80% of the snaps last year, we got a glimpse of it. In those games with Flacco, Downs had a 25.7% target share, 2.38 yards per route run, 66.4 receiving yards per game, a 32.4% first-read share, 0.144 first downs per route run, and 15.5 PPR points per game (per Fantasy Points Data). If he had kept that pace up in those categories, among wide receivers with at least 50 targets last year, he would have ranked ninth, 15th, 20th, ninth, and fourth as the WR21 in fantasy points per game. With Richardson under center, his numbers dipped with a 21.3% target share, 2.15 yards per route run, 48.3 receiving yards per game, a 26.8% first-read share, 0.076 first downs per route run, and 10.7 PPR points per game (WR44). Downs is a stable WR3/4 who could easily out-kick his ADP in 2025 if Indy gets more consistent quarterback play.
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116.
Trevor Lawrence
QB - JAC (vs . TEN)
Trevor Lawrence had another disappointing season in 2024 that was ultimately cut short by injury. He was knocked out of Week 9 with a shoulder issue, only to return for Week 13 and leave the game with a concussion. He didn't play another snap in 2024. In Weeks 1-9, Lawrence was the QB15 in fantasy points per game. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 17th in yards per attempt, 34th in CPOE, 16th in hero throw rate, and 19th in highly accurate throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). The injuries took a toll not only on his passing numbers but also on his rushing production. In the three previous seasons, Lawrence ranked eighth, tenth, and ninth in rushing yards among quarterbacks. If Liam Coen can work his magic in Duval, Lawrence's rushing production returns (or is elevated some), and the arrival of Travis Hunter and Bhayshul Tuten can inject some life into this offense, don't be shocked if Lawrence is a high-end QB2 flirting with QB1 production this season.
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117.
Darnell Mooney
WR - ATL (vs . NO)
The underrated Darnell Monney finished WR31 last season in half-point PPR fantasy scoring on a 64-992-5 stat line. One of the appealing things about Mooney is that he doesn't come off the field very often. He had a 92.9% snap share last season, and the Falcons made no significant offseason additions at wide receiver. New Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. has abundant arm talent and could conceivably help Mooney eclipse the 1,000-yard mark for the first time since 2021. Mooney looks like a draft bargain as a low-end WR4 or high-end WR5.
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118.
C.J. Stroud
QB - HOU (vs . IND)
Last year was disastrous for Stroud as he tumbled from the QB7 in fantasy points per game to the QB28. Everything that could have gone wrong did. His offensive line imploded. Nico Collins was in and out of the lineup, while Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs were lost to season-ending injuries. Stroud didn't help matters with the fifth-highest time to throw and the 15th-highest pressure-to-sack ratio (per Fantasy Points Data). Stroud will operate behind a retooled offensive line in 2025 that honestly couldn't be worse than what he dealt with last year. The skill player cabinet has been restocked with a nice mix of veterans and youth, with the additions of Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins, Jayllin Noel, Nick Chubb, and Justin Watson. Everything is setting up nicely for Stroud to make a run as a top-12 fantasy quarterback again this season.
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119.
Keon Coleman
WR - BUF (vs . NYJ)
Keon Coleman had a disappointing rookie season in which he missed four games with a wrist injury. He finished as the WR55 in fantasy points per game, operating as Buffalo's man coverage option and deep threat (sixth-highest aDOT, 15.3). He ranked outside the top 40 wide receivers in target share (14.4%, 59th), yards per route run (1.87, 41st), first-read share (19.9%, 50th), and first downs per route run (59th, 0.074). Coleman had a 27% target per route run rate (TPRR) versus man coverage while only a 14% TPRR versus zone coverage. Among 71 qualifying receivers, he ranked 37th in separation and 44th in route win rate against man coverage, which isn't horrible numbers, but the addition of Joshua Palmer this offseason could push him out of this role. Palmer, in the same set of receivers, ranked fifth in separation and route win rate against man coverage. Coleman could lose this role to Palmer. He wasn't good enough against zone coverage to expect him to be fed in that realm, though. Among 128 qualifying receivers versus zone, Coleman ranked 125th in separation and 88th in route win rate. Coleman is a WR4/5 that I'm happily fading in 2025.
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120.
Ray Davis
RB - BUF (vs . NYJ)
Second-year RB Ray Davis is an intriguing later-round flyer. He's the No. 2 running back on the Bills' depth chart behind James Cook, but Cook has expressed displeasure with his contract an is seeking a new deal. And if the contract thing becomes an issue, the Bills could pivot Davis. When Cook missed a Week 6 game against the Jets with turf toe last season, Davis had 152 yards from scrimmage in that game. Davis is a versatile run-catch threat who scored 21 touchdowns in 13 games in his final college season at Kentucky.
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121.
Dallas Goedert
TE - PHI (vs . WAS)
Dallas Goedert has finished as a TE1 in fantasy points per game in EVERY season since 2019. I don't think that streak ends in 2025. Goedert should be ranked as a TE1 this season, operating in one of the best offenses in the NFL, which will pass more frequently this year. Goedert dealt with injuries again last year with a knee issue and a hamstring ailment. When he was on the field and playing at least 60% of the snaps, he produced 11.8 PPR points per game, which would have equaled the TE8 in fantasy points per game last year. In that sample, he earned a 20.2% target share, churned out 55.1 receiving yards per game and 2.23 yards per route run, and garnered a 25.2% first-read share. Among 47 qualifying tight ends last year, those figures would have ranked sixth, fourth, fourth, and third last season (per Fantasy Points Data). Draft Goedert confidently as a TE1 again this season.
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122.
Tyjae Spears
RB - TEN (at JAC)
After a promising rookie season in 2023, Tyjae Spears dealt with a litany of injuries in 2024 -- two concussions, a hamstring issue and a sprained ankle -- that cost him five games. Spears showed some tantalizing flashes in 2023. He's a very capable pass catcher who's had 82 receptions in his first two seasons. Titans head coach Brian Callahan has hinted at Spears playing a bigger role in 2025. Considering that Titans lead RB Tony Pollard has been pretty ordinary for the last two seasons, we should probably take Callahan seriously.
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123.
Cooper Kupp
WR - SEA (at SF)
Cooper Kupp has dealt with injuries (ankle/thigh) over the last three seasons, which have limited to no more than 12 games in a season since his legendary 2021 season. If he can somehow manage to stay healthy in 2025, he might prove that he has more left in the tank than the general consensus believes. Last year, in the games in which he played at least 55% of the snaps, he drew a 24.7% target share, averaged 61.2 receiving yards per game with 2.15 yards per route run, a 31.6% first-read share, and 0.086 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). In that sample, he averaged 15.2 PPR points per game, which would have equaled the WR18 last season. During those games, he had a 0.097 separation score and a 14.5% route win rate overall, which, among 112 qualifying receivers last season, would have ranked 31st and 42nd. Those are passable numbers, but what really opened my eyes were his 0.139 separation score and 17.6% route win rate as a boundary receiver. Those marks would have ranked 16th and 24th among the same sample of wideouts. With his injury history and the downgrade in quarterback play from Matthew Stafford to Sam Darnold, Kupp is best viewed as a WR4 with some upside.
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124.
Jonnu Smith
TE - PIT (vs . BAL)
Jonnu Smith's upside in fantasy was quickly vaporized for 2025 with his arrival in Pittsburgh. We've seen what this looks like before. In 2023, when Smith was with Atlanta, he was the TE20 in fantasy points per game despite logging five weeks as a TE1 in fantasy scoring. He had a 57.9% route share (26th), a 13% target share (21st), 34.2 receiving yards per game (17th), and 1.67 yards per route run (12th, per Fantasy Points Data). Smith is a nice real-life addition for the Steelers, but he will likely only serve as a streaming tight-end option for fantasy purposes in 2025.
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125.
Rachaad White
RB - TB (vs . CAR)
After a triumphant 2023 season in which he had 1,539 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns, finishing RB4 in PPR fantasy scoring, Rachaad White lost his lead-RB job to Bucky Irving in 2024. White was still a useful contributor who caught 51 passes, had 1,006 yards from scrimmage and scored nine touchdowns. But Irving was sensational, and White played fewer than 40% of the offensive snaps in the Buccaneers' last two regular-season games and their one playoff game. White is a worthwhile handcuff, and his pass-catching ability might give him a tiny bit of stand-alone value in PPR leagues, but he's now mostly just a later-round depth piece.
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126.
Michael Pittman Jr.
WR - IND (at HOU)
Last year, Michael Pittman dealt with back issues and underwhelming quarterback play, which tanked his season as the WR44 in fantasy points per game. Last season, among 85 qualifying receivers, Pittman's market share metrics were perfectly fine, with a 22.6% target share (27th) and 26.6% first-read share (32nd), but his efficiency tanked with 1.82 yards per route run (48th) and 0.079 first downs per route run (53rd, per Fantasy Points Data). His deeper per-route metrics also told a grim tale that should be expected considering his back ailment. Among 112 qualifying receivers, he was 61st in separation and 74th in route win rate after ranking 30th and 33rd in those categories the year prior. Pittman should be a far more effective player this season, but the big worry remains under center. I don't know if Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones can play well enough or have the passing volume for Pittman to revisit his former glory as a perennial top 24 receiver in fantasy points per game, but they could at least make him flex-viable as a WR3/4.
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127.
Trey Benson
RB - ARI (at LAR)
Trey Benson didn't get a great deal of work in his rookie season with Cardinals RB James Conner playing 16 games, but when Benson finally got some meaningful work against in games against the Bears and Jets at midseason, he looked pretty good, showing off the combination of size and power that made him a Day 2 draft pick. Benson enters 2025 as a backup, but Conner has had injury issues throughout his career, so it's possible Benson will get some meaningful work in 2025.
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128.
J.J. McCarthy
QB - MIN (vs . GB)
Yes, I know we haven't seen J.J. McCarthy play outside of an abbreviated preseason sample last year, but I'll be targeting him everywhere this season. This should remain a pass-happy offense after ranking eighth in neutral passing rate and third in pass rate over expectation last year (per Fantasy Points Data). The Vikings remain loaded with skill players and added to the offensive line this offseason to give their new signal caller all the time in the world to dice up opposing pass defenses in 2025. Sam Darnold (yes, that Sam Darnold) finished as the QB9 in fantasy points per game last year, continuing a long history of Kevin O'Connel's quarterbacks finishing as QB1s. I believe McCarthy will keep that streak alive. He was a stellar prospect who has been airdropped into the perfect situation. In his final collegiate season, McCarthy ranked inside the top 12 FBS quarterbacks in passing grade, adjusted completion rate, yards per attempt, adjusted completion rate with downfield throws, and against pressure (per PFF). It's wheels up for McCarthy in 2025.
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129.
Rashid Shaheed
WR - NO (at ATL)
Rashid Shaheed was headed for a breakout season before tearing his meniscus. In Weeks 1-6, he was the WR31 in fantasy points per game with at least 73 receiving yards in four of six outings. He drew a 22.7% target share with 2.17 yards per route run, a 29.8% first-read share, and 0.075 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). We'll see if he can pick up where he left off with new head coach Kellen Moore and a new quarterback tossing him the ball in 2025. I'm a little more skeptical than some after he ranked only 60th in separation and 64th in route win rate last season (among 140 qualifying receivers). Shaheed is a decent late-round option that could be a volume-fueled flex play.
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130.
Matthew Golden
WR - GB (at MIN)
Well, Golden got the draft capital alley-oop as the Packers bucked their previous trend and sent the card to the podium in the first round of the NFL Draft. I'll lead this off by saying I was lower than consensus regarding Golden. With the selection of Golden and then the team following that up by selecting Savion Williams (round 3) later in the NFL Draft, I don't think Golden will be the team's "true WR1." Those correlated moves speak more to Green Bay continuing their wide receiver-by-committee approach. Even if they don't and the team seeks to run more of the offense through Golden, I don't know if he has the high-end target-drawing ability to reward their faith. Golden finished his collegiate career with an 18.7% target per route run rate and 1.85 yards per route run (per PFF). Neither of those metrics screams "future alpha WR1" in the NFL. Despite my pessimism, Golden's draft capital alone necessitates that he is worth a late-round selection in redraft this season.
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131.
Matthew Stafford
QB - LAR (vs . ARI)
If you're looking to punt quarterback in your drafts this season, Matthew Stafford should be in the mix for your fantasy football teams. Before tailing off at the end of last season, with Puka Nacua back in the huddle, Stafford was performing as the QB11 in fantasy points per game. During that stretch, he was ranked tenth in yards per attempt, sixth in passer rating, and 11th in highly accurate throw rate and fantasy points per dropback (per Fantasy Points Data). Cooper Kupp is gone and replaced by the always awesome Davante Adams. Tyler HIgbee will be ready to roll and Terrance Ferguson has been added as his heir apparent. Stafford could turn back the clock in 2025 with another QB1 season for fantasy football.
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132.
Tyler Allgeier
RB - ATL (vs . NO)
Tyler Allgeier remains an elite handcuff option with some standalone flex appeal. Allgeier was the RB45 in fantasy points per game, as he finished as the RB36 or higher in 41% of his games last year. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked 22nd in missed tackle rate and 20th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). If Bijan Robinson were to miss any time, Allgeier would immediately vault into RB1/2 territory.
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133.
J.K. Dobbins
RB - DEN (vs . LAC)
After tearing his Achilles in Week 1 of the 2023 season, J.K. Dobbins made a successful return in 2024, rolling up 905 rushing yards and nine touchdowns for the Chargers in 13 games. Dobbins now joins the Broncos, where he'll be part of Sean Payton's backfield. Payton likes to use multiple running backs, and no doubt rookie R.J. Harvey will be prominently involved. But Dobbins figures to have a role as well, and it's possible he'll be Payton's preferred goal-line back.
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134.
Isaiah Likely
TE - BAL (at PIT)
Isaiah Likely's path to fantasy relevance has been blocked by fellow Ravens TE Mark Andrews for most of Likely's three NFL seasons. But Likely has had his moments, particularly when Andrews has been sidelined. In the nine games Andrews has missed over the last three years, Likely has averaged 3.4 catches, 50.3 yards and 0.7 touchdowns. Prorated, that would work out to 58 catches, 855 yards and 11 touchdowns over a full season. Likely and Andrews are both in the final years of their contracts with the Ravens. Likely has intriguing upside, but we might not get to see it until he and Andrews have been decoupled.
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135.
Rashod Bateman
WR - BAL (at PIT)
Rashod Bateman ran hotter than the sun in 2024 as the WR45 in fantasy points per game. He had seven weekly finishes as a top 36 wide receiver and five inside the top 20. Bateman operated as Baltimore's deep threat (seventh-highest aDOT 1.50) and logged nine total touchdowns (ninth-best) despite only eight red zone targets and 15 deep targets. Some of this is just related to the fact that Bateman is incredibly talented, ranking fourth in separation and 13th in route win rate among 112 qualifying receivers (per Fantasy Points Data). We also have to acknowledge that he's a primed regression candidate as the WR65 in expected fantasy points per game last season. Bateman will be a WR4/5 again this season and matchup-dependent flex because of his low-volume role (14% target share, 61st).
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136.
Kyle Pitts
TE - ATL (vs . NO)
A great many fantasy managers have vowed to never again roster Kyle Pitts, as the young tight end has repeatedly failed to meet expectations. The fourth overall pick of the 2021 draft, Pitts played his first NFL game at age 20 and became the first rookie TE to have a 1,000-yard receiving season since Mike Ditka 60 years earlier. But after finishing TE6 in PPR fantasy scoring as a rookie, Pitts hasn't finished as a top-12 fantasy tight end in any of the last three years. He had 47 catches for 602 yards and a career-high four touchdowns last year. Pitts is still only 24, so there may be hope for him yet. Pitts had to acclimate to new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson's system last year, and Falcons QB Kirk Cousins was a disappointment. Perhaps there's hope for Pitts now that he has greater familiarity with the system and will be playing with talented young QB Michael Penix Jr.
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137.
Tua Tagovailoa
QB - MIA (at NE)
Tua Tagovailoa's concussion history is well-known, so I won't be diving into that here. Anyone drafting Tagovailoa is well aware at this point of the risk that he carries weekly. Let's discuss what he did when on the field last season. Miami went with a conservative "get the ball out of his hands QUICKLY" approach last season. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks last season, he had the lowest aDOT (5.9) and the second-lowest time to throw behind only Copper Rush (per Fantasy Points Data). While this Chad Pennington-esque approach hurt his receivers, it didn't impact Tagovailoa's fantasy output, as he was the QB13 in fantasy points per game. Among the previous subset of quarterbacks discussed, he also ranked 18th in yards per attempt, eighth in passer rating, tenth in CPOE, and first in highly accurate throw rate. Tagovailoa should be a strong QB2 this season. If he can manage a spike in passing touchdown rate in 2025, he might flirt with low-end QB1 production.
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138.
Isaac Guerendo
RB - SF (vs . SEA)
Isaac Guerendo could be the most valuable handcuffs in fantasy football this year as the presumed backup to the oft-injured Christian McCaffrey, who played only four games last year. I say "presumed" because Guerendo will have to beat out rookie Jordan James. But Guerendo showed some intriguing flashes as a rookie. When he made his first two NFL starts in Weeks 14 and 15, Guerendo rolled up 203 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns in those contests.
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139.
Emeka Egbuka
WR - TB (vs . CAR)
Emeka Egbuka looks like this year's Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Rome Odunze. The talented first-round selection in the NFL draft finds himself in a squeeze for target volume immediately with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Yes, Godwin is coming off another major injury that could help boost Egbuka's prospects, but Evans didn't show any fall-off last year. I also haven't mentioned Jalen McMillan, who broke out down the stretch last season. Last year, among 112 qualifying wideouts, Evans ranked second in separation score and route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Egbuka's skillset also has some considerable overlap with Chris Godwin. All of these factors muddy the picture for Egbuka in 2025. While I'm worried about Egbuka, he remains a talented wide receiver with significant first-round NFL draft capital and a strong analytical profile. In two of Egbuka's final three collegiate seasons, he ranked inside the top 40 FBS wide receivers in yards per route run (38th, 11th) and top 20 in receiving grade (19th, 12th) and yards after the catch (16th, 12th). Egbuka could outproduce his ADP if Evans and/or Godwin can't stay healthy, so he's worth taking a shot on in the middle/later rounds.
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140.
Colston Loveland
TE - CHI (vs . DET)
Loveland surprised some in the NFL Draft as the first tight end off the board. I'm not shocked by it, but I did think Warren would hear his name called first. Loveland's top ten first-round capital is notable. Ben Johnson seemingly got his Sam LaPorta. I don't think Loveland is on the same talent plane as LaPorta, and I don't mean that as shade, but their skill sets are different. Loveland has stellar per-route efficiency and the route running chops to match, but he isn't the same mauler after the catch, with only eight missed tackles forced in his collegiate career (per PFF). I worry a tiny bit about Loveland's weekly route share with Cole Kmet, who is still on this roster. Loveland should be the Week 1 starter, but don't be shocked if Kmet can be enough of a thorn in his side (ala Dawson Knox) to hurt his ceiling and floor in 2025. I also haven't even mentioned a crowded target hierarchy for this season with D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, D'Andre Swift, and Luther Burden on the roster and Caleb Williams' worrisome 2024 play. Right now, Loveland is a bet on talent, and that is driving him up the target hierarchy. Across his final two collegiate seasons, he ranked fifth in yards per route run in both seasons and third and tenth in receiving grade. Loveland is a TE2 that could finish as a TE1 if everything breaks right in 2025.
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141.
Jaylen Wright
RB - MIA (at NE)
Jaylen Wright will battle with Alexander Mattison and Ollie Gordon to be De'Von Achane's backup. He has a leg up entering camp, but we'll have to see if he can secure the job. On a per-carry basis, he did offer some hope with a 5.9% explosive run rate and an 18% missed tackle rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Wright is a decent final-round pick/best ball dart throw.
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142.
Marvin Mims Jr.
WR - DEN (vs . LAC)
Many will look at Marvin Mims' production down the stretch last year and think, "Oh, my! He broke out. I need to draft him in 2025." The problem with his production during those games is it was fraudulent and not likely to be reproduced. In Weeks 11-18, Mims was the WR23 in fantasy points per game on the strength of six touchdowns (seven games). In those games, he had only a 34.6% route share, a 12.8% target share, a 4.3 aDOT, and a 17.4% first-read share. 58.1% of his targets were designed, and 58% of his target volume was via screens (per Fantasy Points Data). None of this is sustainable long-term, and last year's scorching hot finish to the season was more of a fluke. Avoid Mims in the later rounds of drafts. Pat Bryant could easily earn a full-time starting role this season opposite Courtland Sutton and crush Mims route share.
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143.
Christian Kirk
WR - HOU (vs . IND)
Christian Kirk has had a rocky road over the last two years after his breakout 2022 campaign (WR18 in fantasy points per game). Last year, Kirk fractured his collarbone and was out for the season while dealing with calf issues before that. In 2023, he dealt with a groin tear. In an abbreviated showing last season, Kirk proved he still has it. His WR57 ranking in fantasy points per game in Weeks 1-8 last season doesn't jump off the page, but he did accrue an 18.7% target share with 1.84 yards per route run, a 23.8% first-read share, and 0.087 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). None of those metrics scream, "DRAFT HIM NOW," but it also has to be said that among 116 qualifying receivers, he also ranked 13th in separation and 22nd in route win rate. Inside what looked like a broken Jaguars' offense last year, Kirk was still crushing corners. He's set for a wonderful possible bounce-back season in Houston if he can stay healthy. Now, you can add a player of his caliber as your WR5/6. It's free upside at the end of your drafts. I remember last year when we were drafting every starting Texan wide receiver aggressively. Now, Nico Collins is the only player that fantasy gamers are paying up for in drafts.
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144.
Rico Dowdle
RB - CAR (at TB)
Rico Dowdle took over as the Cowboys' lead RB in the second half of the 2024 regular season and was a monster down the stretch. Dowdle had 235-1,079-2 rushing for the season. Over his last seven games, Dowdle averaged 96.7 rushing yards and had four 100-yard rushing games. He was the RB13 in half-point PPR scoring over that stretch. But the Cowboys let Dowdle walk after the season, and he signed a modest one-year contract with the Panthers. Since Carolina gave a big contract extension to Chuba Hubbard in the offseason, it's reasonable to assume that Dowdle with be Hubbard's backup. But Dowdle is still an interesting late-round flyer.
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145.
Austin Ekeler
RB - WAS (at PHI)
Austin Ekeler is being left for dead in early 2025 drafts, with an ADP in the low-end RB4/high-end RB5 range. But Ekeler was productive when healthy last year and is playing in an exciting, up-and-coming offense in Washington. Ekeler scored double-digit PPR points in 8-of-12 games last season and finished RB31 in fantasy points per game. When Brian Robinson Jr. missed a pair of midseason games with a hamstring injury, Ekeler had 134 yards from scrimmage and scored three touchdowns in those two contests. I'm not expecting a return to the high-end RB1 days for the 30-year-old Ekeler, but I think he's a value in the later rounds.
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146.
Bryce Young
QB - CAR (at TB)
The light finally came on for Bryce Young down the stretch last year. In Weeks 12-18, he was the QB8 in fantasy points per game, averaging 25.4 rushing yards per game, which would have ranked 12th-best overall last year. During that stretch, among 34 qualifying quarterbacks, Young ranked eighth in CPOE, 12th in highly accurate throw rate, and second in hero throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). He was aggressively pushing the ball downfield with the fifth-highest deep throw rate in the NFL behind only Josh Allen, Anthony Richardson, Lamar Jackson, and Jordan Love. Young is a sneaky QB2 option for 2025 who could again flirt with QB1 production if he can keep up the stellar play of late 2024 and quickly get on the same page with Tetairoa McMillan.
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147.
Jake Ferguson
TE - DAL (at NYG)
Last year's disappointing season for Jake Ferguson can be largely attributed to the absence of Dak Prescott. Prescott was lost for the season after Week 8. In Weeks 1-8, Ferguson was the TE12 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 17.9% target share (tenth-best), averaging 43.8 receiving yards per game (tenth-best), and commanding a 19.5% first-read share (ninth-best, per Fantasy Points Data). During this stretch, Ferguson wasn't an efficient player, ranking 25th in yards per route run and 30th in first downs per route run. Without Prescott, after Week 9, Ferguson didn't have more than 40 receiving yards in a game for the rest of the season. After Week 8, Ferguson didn't see a red zone target until the final game of the season. Ferguson is in line for a strong bounce-back campaign in 2025 as the weekly number three option in the passing game. Dallas should easily rank inside the top ten in passing attempts this season as Ferguson returns to the TE1 ranks.
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148.
Hunter Henry
TE - NE (vs . MIA)
Hunter Henry is a wonderful late-round tight-end target this season if you're looking to punt the position in 2025. Last year, in Drake Maye's full starts, he had a 19.2% target share, averaged 49.9 receiving yards per game, had 1.70 yards per route run, a 22.7% first-read share, and 0.098 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). I'll also add on top that he averaged 11.3 PPR points per game in that sample. Last year, among all tight ends with 25 targets, those marks would have ranked seventh, sixth, 14th, fifth, eighth, and the points per game production would have made him the TE8 in fantasy. Yes, since that time, New England added Stefon Diggs and Kyle Williams to the passing equation, but that doesn't mean that Henry still can't emerge in 2025 as Maye's number two option in the passing offense and flirt with TE1 output.
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149.
Luther Burden III
WR - CHI (vs . DET)
The manufactured touch king of Missouri heads to the Chicago Bears via the second round of the NFL Draft. The Ben Johnson faith and steam will lead plenty of Fantasy managers to draft Burden in 2025 despite the muddly path to significant targets in his rookie season. Chicago did this last year with Rome Odunze as they tossed him into a crowded target tree, and it didn't work out. Burden faces a similar hurdle with Odunze, D.J. Moore, and possibly Colston Loveland ahead of him in the hierarchy. I also didn't even mention Cole Kmet or D'Andre Swift. Burden enjoyed a ton of schemed and easy looks in college as he wasn't asked to just line up every down and route guys up. It's tough to see Burden finding his way to high-end fantasy relevance in 2025 if everyone stays healthy. Burden's a decent middle/late-round dart throw if injuries strike this depth chart because the path to a strong workload could open up quickly. Across his final two collegiate seasons, Burden ranked 58th and seventh in yards per route run, 79th and 13th in yards after the catch per reception, and first and 15th in missed tackles forced among wideouts (per PFF).
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150.
Bhayshul Tuten
RB - JAC (vs . TEN)
The Jaguars selected Bhayshul Tuten with one of the first picks of Day 3 of the NFL Draft. Jacksonville is likely to have a messy RB committee this year with Travis Etienne, Tank Bigsby and Tuten, but Tuten could get an extended audition this year if the Jaguars decide they're going to let Etienne walk after his contract expires at the end of the season. Tuten has game-breaking, sub-4.4. speed. If he gets to the edge, look out. But Tuten is also an effective inside runner who bursts through holes and doesn't go down easily.
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151.
Jaydon Blue
RB - DAL (at NYG)
Blue fell to the fifth round of the NFL Draft as he was swimming in a ridiculously deep running back draft class. The former Longhorn displayed some three-down big play ability in his final collegiate season. He ranked 26th in elusive rating, 35th in yards after contact per attempt, and 25th in yards per route run (per PFF). It's not hard to envision Blue having a role in the backfield immediately in Week 1, considering the lackluster players surrounding him on the Dallas Cowboys' depth chart. Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders' best football looks to be behind them. Blue could be the passing down back from Day 1 with an avenue to become the team's lead back quickly.
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152.
Braelon Allen
RB - NYJ (at BUF)
Braelon Allen is in the running to be Breece Hall's backup for 2025, but I won't be surprised if Isaiah Davis beats him out. Last year, Allen averaged 6.5 touches and 28.3 total yards in backup duty. Among 70 qualifying backs, he ranked 51st in missed tackle rate and 35th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Davis, with fewer carries, produced better per-touch numbers last year. I don't mind taking shots on Allen late in deeper leagues, but I wouldn't go crazy with my exposure across multiple leagues.
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153.
Michael Penix Jr.
QB - ATL (vs . NO)
Michael Penix showed some promise in his brief cup of coffee as the starter last year, but he'll need to continue to hone his game if he wants to fulfill the hope that he can be a difference-making quarterback for Atlanta for years to come. In Weeks 16-18 last season, he averaged 15.2 fantasy points per game, which would have translated to QB23 for the season. He was extremely aggressive, ranking sixth in deep throw rate, fourth in hero throw rate, and second in aDOT. Among 47 qualifying quarterbacks last season, he ranked 16th in yards per attempt, 23rd in CPOE, 43rd in highly accurate throw rate, and 21st in catchable target rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Penix isn't a rushing threat, with no more than five rushing yards in any of his starts last year, so he'll have to rack up all of his fantasy scoring from the pocket. He'll definitely have plenty of spike weeks this season for the quarterback streaming crowd, but it's unlikely he will finish the year as anything more than QB2.
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154.
Jalen McMillan
WR - TB (vs . CAR)
Jalen McMillan started slowly in his rookie season but came on down the stretch. In Weeks 14-18, he was the WR11 in fantasy points per game, spiking seven touchdowns. During those five games, he had an 18.4% target share, 63.2 receiving yards per game, 2.09 yards per route run, a 22.9% first-read share, and 0.099 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Outside of the insane touchdown production, McMillan's efficiency stats were all nice. Unfortunately for him, the Bucs felt the need to further upgrade their wide receiver room despite his stretch performance and Chris Godwin's return. Tampa Bay's drafting of Emeka Egbuka pushes McMillan into the WR4 role unless Godwin or Mike Evans miss time. He's not a bad contingency plan or "handcuff wide receiver," but outside of that, his production will be too spotty this season to count on in fantasy. I'll only take shots on him in best ball settings.
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155.
Romeo Doubs
WR - GB (at MIN)
Out of the cloudy receiving picture in Green Bay, Romeo Doubs is the wide receiver I want to draft this season. On the surface, there doesn't appear to be much cause for being over the moon for Doubs, but hear me out. Last year, he finished as the WR47 in fantasy points per game, but he was the clear leader of the Green Bay Packers receiver room, and underneath the surface, he POPS in a number of metrics that matter. Doubs was the only receiver for Green Bay that eclipsed a 75% route share (team-leading 76.7%) while leading the team in target share (18.7%) and first-read share (23.6%). He posted a solid 1.90 yards per route run while ranking 25th among 85 qualifying receivers in first downs per route run (0.104, per Fantasy Points Data). Here's where things get really interesting: Doubs, last year among 112 qualifying receivers, ranked 11th in separation and second in route win rate. Doubs could be quietly headed for a massive breakout season, and with the addition of Matthew Golden and the Packers' run-heavy approach last year, it's not priced into his ADP at all. He's one of my favorite late-round dart throws this season.
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156.
Cedric Tillman
WR - CLE (at CIN)
Cedric Tillman made some noise last year before he was forced to miss the rest of the season recovering from a concussion. In Weeks 7-12, Tillman was the WR12 in fantasy points per game with a 19.7% target share, 66.0 receiving yards per game, and a 23.3% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). Tillman looks like fool's gold, though, when we look at his deeper metrics during that stretch and for the entire season. In those five games, Tillman only had 1.71 yards per route run and 0.078 first downs per route run. Those aren't amazing per-route numbers. Tillman's counting stats were inflated some by Cleveland's play volume during this five-game stint, as they ranked third in passing attempts and second in passing rate. Another hit to Tillman's resume is that overall, he also ranked 82nd in separation and 90th in route win rate last season (112 qualifying receivers). He's a late-round receiver that I'll be avoiding this season.
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157.
Blake Corum
RB - LAR (vs . ARI)
Blake Corum never threatened Kyren Williams' workload last year. He could be surpassed on the depth chart this season after the Rams added Jarquez Hunter in the draft. Corum's per-touch numbers last year were expectedly disappointing, with only a 14% missed tackle rate and 1.66 yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). If you're taking shots on this backfield, I would point you in the direction of Williams and Hunter.
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158.
Zach Ertz
TE - WAS (at PHI)
Zach Ertz had a very "Ertzian" season in 2024, where volume and a perfect set of circumstances helped carry him to a TE10 in fantasy points per game finish. He could repeat that in 2025, but he's best viewed as a TE2 with the arrival of Deebo Samuel. He'll have to compete with Samuel for underneath target volume. Last year, among 47 qualifying tight ends, Ertz ranked 12th in target share (16.8%), 17th in receiving yards per game (38.5), 27th in yards per route run (1.45), 14th in first read share (17.2%), and 20th in first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). A team devoid of a steady option outside of Terry McLaurin was forced to lean on Ertz, who performed admirably, but if Samuel can stay healthy, Ertz's target share and first-read share will decline as he turns in a decent TE2 season.
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159.
Geno Smith
QB - LV (vs . KC)
Geno Smith was the QB15 in fantasy points per game on the strength of operating in an offense that ranked fourth in passing attempts. I don't know if he'll be afforded anywhere near that amount of volume with the Raiders, but Smith also checked more than a few boxes for strong quarterback play last season. Among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 13th in yards per attempt, fourth in CPOE, and tenth in highly accurate throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). The wheels came off for Smith when he was pressured, and that happened often in 2024 as he faced the sixth-most pressures in the NFL. Last year, when pressured, Smith ranked 35th in passer rating with the fourth-highest turnover-worthy throw rate while sitting at 17th in adjusted completion rate. When Smith passed from a clean pocket, he ranked 13th in passer rating, had the 23rd-lowest turnover-worthy throw rate, and was second in adjusted completion rate. The move from Seattle to Las Vegas could benefit Smith's pressure sensitivity greatly as the Raiders were 14th in pass blocking grade last season (Seattle 19th). I don't think Smith has the juice to be a QB1 this season, but he could easily turn in high-end QB2 numbers again this season with plenty of splash performances for the quarterback-streaming crowd.
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160.
Denver Broncos
DST - DEN (vs . LAC)
Denver was the DST1 in fantasy points per game last year, and I don't see any reason why they can't repeat that in 2025. Last year, they ranked second in pressure rate and seventh in blitz rate, so sacks should be arriving in bunches again (they led the NFL in sacks last year). Denver will arguably field the best cornerback room in the NFL in 2025.
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161.
Marquise Brown
WR - KC (at LV)
Marquise Brown is another veteran late-round enigma in 2025. He suffered an SC joint injury and was limited to only two games in the regular season, where he played 27-40% of the snaps. In those two games, he was hyper-targeted to get him involved, seeing a 19% target share and 43% TPRR (unsustainable). The postseason gave us a better indication of where he is at in his career when he had a 70% route share (three games) and sadly only had a 15.7% target share, 0.67 yards per route run, 14.5% first-read share, and 0.040 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Brown is an injury-prone WR5/6 that is best left in the player pool for others to draft in 2025. I'd rather take a last-round flier on Jalen Royals or pick him up off waivers if he pops early in the season.
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162.
Nick Chubb
RB - HOU (vs . IND)
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163.
Tre Harris
WR - LAC (at DEN)
Harris, the soul-snatching route savant, landed with the Bolts in the second round of the NFL Draft. He should quickly become Justin Herbert's trusted second option in the passing game opposite Ladd McConkey. Yes, Harris will have to hop either Mike Williams or Quentin Johnston to crack the starting lineup, but I'm not worried about his ability to do so. We're discussing a player who has ranked first and ninth in yards per route run over the last two years, stacked up against arguably a former first-round bust and a veteran who looked like he was running on empty last year (per PFF). If the Bolts remain a pass-happier team than people realize in 2025, Harris could be one of the best values in fantasy football drafts this season. Last year in Weeks 7-18, the Bolts ranked eighth in neutral passing rate and sixth-best in pass rate over expectation. If that continues and Harris can spread his wings in this offense, he could crush his ADP in 2025.
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164.
Roschon Johnson
RB - CHI (vs . DET)
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165.
Quentin Johnston
WR - LAC (at DEN)
Quentin Johnston was a fantasy football surprise in 2024. After a troubling rookie season, he finished as the WR37 in fantasy points per game last year with eight total touchdowns (13th-most). His season-ending stats do lie, though. Last year, he finished with 711 receiving yards, but he racked up 26.1% of that (186 receiving yards) in Week 18. In Weeks 1-17, he had an 18.1% target share and 23.1% first-read share, but he had only 37.5 receiving yards per game, 1.55 yards per route run, and 0.077 first downs per route run to show for it (per Fantasy Points Data). Last year, in Weeks 1-17, he ranked 91st out of 107 qualifying receivers in separation. I don't see Johnston retaining his WR2 role in the Bolts offense. Tre Harris will pass him in the pecking order in short order and render Johnston a low-ceiling weekly deep league flex.
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166.
MarShawn Lloyd
RB - GB (at MIN)
Lloyd lost nearly his entire rookie season to injuries. First, he dealt with a hamstring strain during training camp and the preseason. That was followed by an ankle sprain in Week 2 and surgery to treat appendicitis after that. It was an unfortunate and insane runout for the former third-round pick out of USC. Don't forget Lloyd is a ridiculously talented player who ranked 16th and 20th in yards after contact per attempt and fourth and 15th in elusive rating across his final two collegiate seasons (per PFF). The Packers didn't add anyone to the backfield in the draft. Lloyd should be considered the favorite for the RB2/handcuff spot on the depth chart for Green Bay behind Josh Jacobs. We'll see how much of a stand-alone role he has this season, but his handcuff value alone is solid.
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167.
Philadelphia Eagles
DST - PHI (vs . WAS)
The Eagles were the DST7 last year in fantasy. While some of the parts of this defense have changed over the offseason, they will still field one of the best defenses in the NFL. Last year, they ranked 13th in sacks and fifth-best in drives, ending with a turnover (sixth-best in turnovers forced).
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168.
Kyle Williams
WR - NE (vs . MIA)
Kyle Williams hive stand up! Williams gained a lot of traction in the fantasy community in the predraft process, with plenty of people hyping up the former Washington State late breakout. I remain a tad below consensus on Williams. Williams didn't surpass 900 receiving yards or 2.25 yards per route run in any collegiate season until 2024 (per PFF). The hope for the Patriots' third-round draft pick is that he can avoid faceplanting like Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker did last year. He'll need to hop Mack Hollins, DeMario Douglas, Kayshon Boutte, and Kendrick Bourne to see the field in 2025 as a full-time starter. He's a late-round flier only right now until we get more clarity about his spot in the pecking order in training camp and the preseason.
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169.
Jerome Ford
RB - CLE (at CIN)
With the Quinshon Judkins off-the-field issues, Jerome Ford reenters the fray as a late-round running back option. Last year, when he was active with Nick Chubb in the lineup, he averaged 8.2 touches and 47.7 total yards as the RB39 in fantasy points per game. Ford remained explosive last year. Among 46 qualifying backs, he ranked eighth in explosive run rate and yards after contact per attempt while finishing 18th in missed tackles forced per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). If Judkins doesn't get suspended, Ford's fantasy value in 2025 is barely palpable, as Judkins and Dylan Sampson will likely lead the way. If Judkins misses any time, Ford will likely fall back into his previous role for the team as a committee back, ceding the passing down work to Sampson. Ford could offer some flex appeal in deeper leagues to begin the season and some best-ball upside.
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170.
Adam Thielen
WR - CAR (at TB)
Adam Thielen proved last year that he still has something left in the tank. In the nine games last year that he played at least 58% of the snaps, he drew a 19.7% target share while averaging 63.9 receiving yards per game with 2.08 yards per route run with a 25.8% first-read share and 0.094 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Down the stretch (Weeks 12-18), when Bryce Young was revitalized, Thielen was the WR21 in fantasy points per game. I'm not expecting him to produce anywhere close to that level in the 2025 season, especially with the addition of Tetairoa McMillan, but Thielen isn't dust. Not even close. Last year, among 112 qualifying receivers, he ranked 26th in separation and 53rd in route win rate. Thielen is a solid late-round option who could be a strong weekly flex option if Young continues his growth at the NFL level.
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171.
DeAndre Hopkins
WR - BAL (at PIT)
DeAndre Hopkins, at this stage of his career, offers more real-life veteran/locker-room appeal than fantasy production. Last year, he was a part-time player for both Tennessee and Kansas City, never eclipsing a 65% route share in any week. In ten games, he had less than a 55% route share, so we have to evaluate what he did from a per-route basis only instead of the raw counting or market share metrics. Among 112 qualifying receivers, he ranked 52nd in separation and 36th in route win rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Among that same sample, he was 47th in yards per route run and 32nd in target per route run rate. He'll have some random spike weeks because of the potency of Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense, but they'll likely be tough to predict and not consistent enough to make him anything more than a headache flex option.
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172.
Baltimore Ravens
DST - BAL (at PIT)
Baltimore will again field a strong defense. Last year, they were the DST11 in fantasy points per game while ranking second in sacks. If Nate Wiggins can take another step and Jaire Alexander can stay healthy, they might have a top-five secondary.
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173.
Pittsburgh Steelers
DST - PIT (vs . BAL)
The Steelers were the DST4 in fantasy points per game last year. All they did in the offseason was upgrade their secondary significantly with the additions of Darius Slay and Jalen Ramsey to rock alongside Joey Porter Jr. Pittsburgh tied for the league lead in turnovers last season.
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174.
Jayden Higgins
WR - HOU (vs . IND)
Higgins got the capital I was hoping for as the fifth wide receiver selected in the NFL Draft at the top of the second round. Higgins should immediately file in as the starting outside receiver opposite Nico Collins in two wide receiver sets. Higgins was an underrated player throughout the entire draft process, ranking 27th and 16th in yards per route run and first and 18th in receiving grade during his final two collegiate seasons (per PFF). He's a sure-handed receiver who will become a trusted safety blanket for C.J. Stroud after posting a 2.2% drop rate or lower in each of the last three seasons and a 55.6% contested catch rate in college. The addition of Higgins and fellow former Iowa State wide receiver Jaylin Noel should push Christian Kirk while also hopefully fueling a big bounce-back season for Stroud. Higgins is a WR3/4 that could easily evolve into a weekly WR2 as the 2025 season rolls along.
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175.
Minnesota Vikings
DST - MIN (vs . GB)
The Vikings were the DST2 in fantasy points per game last year, and they could be even better in 2025. Last year, they ranked fourth in sacks and sixth in pressure rate. Their secondary is a tad shakey on paper, but their pass rush should help cover some of those worries as quarterbacks run for their lives weekly.
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176.
Joshua Palmer
WR - BUF (vs . NYJ)
Palmer is a solid and cheap bet to make on the Buffalo offense. His surface stats don't jump off the page. In the games in which he played at least 50% of the snaps last year, he had a 13.7% target share, 1.57 yards per route run, a 17.2% first-read share, and 0.075 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). It's when we pop open the hood and peek at his per-route metrics that things get interesting. Last year, among 112 qualifying wide receivers, Palmer was one of the best separators in the NFL, ranking 16th in separation and 12th in route win rate. Now, those numbers are eye-popping, especially when you discuss one of the best offenses in the NFL, yet only one receiving option was able to draw more than a 20% target share last year (Khalil Shakir). Palmer's route running and separation ability could lead to consistently heavier usage in Buffalo, where they don't have a receiver commanding a high target share. Palmer is worth the late-round flier to find out.
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177.
Alec Pierce
WR - IND (at HOU)
Last year, Alec Pierce was the WR48 in fantasy points per game, operating as Indy's field stretcher. If Anthony Richardson wins the job, maybe he will have some flex-viable weeks in 2025 in deeper leagues, but he's off my draft board if Daniel Jones is the team's starter. Last year, Pierce led 85 qualifying receivers in aDOT (22.2). His role won't be heavily utilized if Jones is starting. Last year, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Jones had the 14th-lowest aDOT and the ninth-lowest deep throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Pierce could luck box into some spike weeks for best ball, but it won't be often enough to make him a redraft-worthy managed lineup pick.
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178.
Xavier Legette
WR - CAR (at TB)
Xavier Legette is a late-round depth option that I'll likely avoid in most drafts this season. In the games, he played at least 59% of the snaps last year with Bryce Young under center, Legette had an encouraging 20.5% target share and 25.3% first-read share, but his per-route efficiency was horrible with 1.32 yards per route run and 0.066 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Overall, among 112 qualifying receivers, he ranked 69th in separation and 52nd in route win rate. Outside of Tetairoa McMillan, if I'm taking shots on this passing offense late, it'll be with Adam Thielen or Jalen Coker.
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179.
Sam Darnold
QB - SEA (at SF)
Sam Darnold was the QB9 in fantasy points per game last year. Let's get this out of the way VERY QUICKLY...Darnold set career marks in every category imaginable last year, and I don't see anything close to that production repeating in 2025. Yes, last season, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked sixth in yards per attempt and passer rating and third in CPOE, but also, when we look closer, the real Sam Darnold can still be found. Despite those rousing stats I mentioned a second ago, Darnold was also 22nd in highly accurate throw rate, 15th in catchable target rate, and he had the ninth-highest turnover-worthy throw rate. With his move to Seattle, he loses Kevin O'Connell, faces a downgrade at offensive line and skill players, and will likely operate in a more run-centric offense. All of this leads to Darnold falling back into QB2 territory in 2025.
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180.
Dylan Sampson
RB - CLE (at CIN)
Sampson joins the Cleveland Browns after being selected in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. He'll pair with Quinshon Judkins, forming the new-look duo for the Browns' rushing attack. Yes, Jerome Ford remains on the roster, and Sampson has to outplay him to earn the RB2 job in 2025 officially, but I think that will happen because Cleveland's selection of two backs inside the top four rounds of the NFL Draft speaks volumes about their lack of faith in Ford. This easily could be Cleveland getting an updated version of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt for their offense. No, I'm not saying there's a direct comparison with talent, but the usage could be similar. In 2023, Sampson ranked sixth in receiving grade and 14th in yards per route run (per PFF), so there are some reasons to be encouraged with his profile if he does take over the passing down duties for the Browns. Sampson's ADP will see a bump in all formats, with Judkins dealing with legal and off-the-field issues. Sampson could be battling Ford for the team lead in touches for the backfield for a few games this season if a subsequent suspension is handed out by the NFL.
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181.
Houston Texans
DST - HOU (vs . IND)
Houston was the DST5 in fantasy points per game last year, and they should be in the running for a top-five finish again in 2025. Last year, they ranked 13th in pressure rate and fourth in sacks (tied). The addition of C.J. Gardner-Johnson could help force a few more turnovers weekly, which wouldn't hurt (fifth-most turnovers forced last year).
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182.
Pat Freiermuth
TE - PIT (vs . BAL)
The Steelers tight end is coming off career-highs in catches (65) with seven touchdowns, finishing as the TE10 in half-PPR in 2024. He has finished as a top-10 fantasy tight end in two of the last three seasons and has finished no worse than TE14 while playing at least 16 games. Since stats are fun, Freiermuth averaged 41 receiving yards and 8.8 fantasy points per game (backend TE1 fantasy numbers) in all games not against the Baltimore Ravens, who had his number last season. But with the addition of Arthur Smith's favorite, Jonnu Smith, the Muth seems like a longshot to hit TE1 numbers with TE14 more likely his best case outcome without an injury.
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183.
Kansas City Chiefs
DST - KC (at LV)
KC is just 21st in the FantasyPros DST projections for 2025 after finishing 2024 as the 15th-ranked DST. With matchups against the Chargers/Eagles to start the season, let somebody else draft them and stream them in Week 3 (Giants matchup) after they get dropped.
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184.
Buffalo Bills
DST - BUF (vs . NYJ)
The Bills, who were the DST8 in fantasy points per game last year, should make another leap this season. Last year, they were tenth in pressure rate but only 18th in sacks, so they should see some positive regression in this department. Buffalo also ranked third in turnovers.
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185.
Brandon Aubrey
K - DAL (at NYG)
Brandon Aubrey was the K1 in total fantasy points last year. He could repeat at the top of the position again in 2025. A healthy Dak Prescott and the addition of George Pickens should go a long way with sustaining drives, getting into field goal range, and improving scoring opportunities for Aubrey and the offense. Last year, Aubrey had ten weeks with double-digit fantasy scoring.
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186.
Mike Gesicki
TE - CIN (vs . CLE)
Gesicki should offer some streaming upside this season if Tee Higgins misses time. His splits were insane, with Higgins in and out of the lineup. Without Higgins on the field, Gesicki averaged 13.6 fantasy points per game with an 18.3% target share, 62.4 receiving yards per game, 2.40 yards per route run, a 22.6% first-read share, and 0.115 first downs per route run. Those are wonderful fantasy numbers, no matter how ya slice it. That points-per-game mark would have made him the TE4 in fantasy last year had he kept it up all year. With Higgins in the huddle, Gesicki's fantasy points per game dropped to 6.2 as he had only a 10.1% target share, 29.4 receiving yards per game, 1.26 yards per route run, a 10.3% first-read share, and 0.082 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Gesicki is an in-season streaming option only.
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187.
Cade Otton
TE - TB (vs . CAR)
Cade Otton had career marks nearly across the board in 2024, but it was a perfect storm for Tampa Bay's dependable tight end. He logged three massive games without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in the lineup that greatly boosted his season ending stat lines. In Weeks 8-10, without Evans and Godwin, Otton had a 25.5% target share with 2.03 yards per route run, a 29.9% first-read share, 64.3 receiving yards per game, and 0.116 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). He averaged an astounding 19.8 PPR points per game. Outside of those three games, Otton had a 15.8% target share with 1.39 yards per route run, a 14.5% first-read share, 37 receiving yards per game, and 0.068 first downs per route run. With Evans and Godwin back and the addition of Emeka Egbuka to the fold, Otton's 2025 season will closely resemble that last sample of production (maybe lower if Egbuka can cut into his work more than Jalen McMillan was able to). He's a basement-level TE2.
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188.
Cameron Ward
QB - TEN (at JAC)
Cam Ward arrives in Tennessee and will be the face of the franchise moving forward. The Titans desperately need Ward to establish himself in 2025 and offer the team hope that they have the right player to lead them into the future. Ward's game can be a highwire act down to down. There are plenty of high-end moments and special plays, but Ward also has plenty of misfires and can run through cold stretches in games. In his final collegiate season, he ranked fourth in yards per attempt and 12th in big-time throw rate, but he was also 22nd in pressure-adjusted completion rate and 32nd in clean pocket-adjusted completion rate (per PFF). Behind a questionable but hopefully ascending offensive line and a thin skill position depth chart, Ward could offer some spike week potential and streamable moments, but he's likely only worth drafting this season in 2QB or Superflex redraft formats.
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189.
Kareem Hunt
RB - KC (at LV)
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190.
Jake Bates
K - DET (at CHI)
Jake Bates ended his first season with the Lions as the full-time starter as the 8th-highest scoring kicker in the league's top scoring offense (PFF's 4th-highest graded kicker). If the Lions offense regresses in the red zone, Bates should see his field goal attempts spike.
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191.
Detroit Lions
DST - DET (at CHI)
Despite losing Aaron Glenn in the offseason, the Lions should repeat as a top-12 DST in 2025. Last year, they were decimated by injuries, but they still finished as the DST10 and tenth in turnovers. If Aidan Hutchinson comes back fully healthy, the pass rush should be fine, and the addition of D.J. Reed will make a sizable impact in the secondary.
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192.
Cameron Dicker
K - LAC (at DEN)
Cameron Dicker finished 4th in FG% in 2024, as fantasy's third-highest scoring kicker. His 10.5 PPG ranked 4th among qualifying kickers. With back-to-back top-7 finishes, Dicker can be a trustworthy kicking option with LA playing their home games indoors.
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193.
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR - NYG (vs . DAL)
Wan'Dale Robinson was a PPR cheat code last year, ranking tenth in targets (140) and receptions (93). He was the WR41 in fantasy points per game. Robinson has nine weekly finishes as a top-36 fantasy wideout. He had a 22.5% target share, 1.28 yards per route run, and a 26.2% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). Robinson's high-volume role isn't certain to remain in 2025, with Russell Wilson starting at least a portion of the season. Wilson hasn't been a heavy underneath/middle-of-the-field target-funneling quarterback. Last year, 35% of Robinson's targets were within ten yards of the line of scrimmage in the middle of the field, where only 21.7% of Wilson's passes were aimed last season. Robinson likely serves as a bye-week desperation flex only this season.
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194.
DJ Giddens
RB - IND (at HOU)
Giddens was the 15th running back selected in the draft as he landed with the Colts. He'll compete with Khalil Herbert to earn backup duties behind the Colts' incumbent starter, Jonathan Taylor. Giddens' talent is very real after he ranked 16th in yards after contact per attempt, sixth in breakaway percentage, and 22nd in elusive rating last year (per PFF). He's in the final-round pick bucket that could pay off handsomely if he earns the RB2 spot and Taylor misses any time.
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195.
DeMario Douglas
WR - NE (vs . MIA)
Demario Douglas is a low-end dice roll receiver in the later rounds this season. He was a flex-viable player at times last season. In his ten full games with Drake Maye starting, he had a 16.3% target share, 1.67 yards per route run, a 19.7% first-read share, and 0.079 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Nothing jumps off the page there, but he did manage three top 36 wide receiver finishes in those ten contests despite only managing five red zone targets. If Maye takes a big step forward in 2025, Douglas is likely coming along for the ride as a bye-week flex option.
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196.
Kendre Miller
RB - NO (at ATL)
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197.
Los Angeles Chargers
DST - LAC (at DEN)
A top-10 DST in 2024, the Chargers should be a viable matchup play in 2025. Week 1 isn't great versus KC (Taking place in Brazil), but LAC follows that matchup with games against the Raiders, Broncos and Giants. They also finished last season with 9 dropped interceptions, despite finishing with the 8th-most picks overall (5th in passes defended). Derius Davis also offers value for the Chargers special teams (6th in total returns last season).
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198.
Jalen Coker
WR - CAR (at TB)
Jalen Coker burst on the scene last year as an undrafted free agent. He earned a starting spot in the Carolina Panthers passing offense as the season moved along and racked up four games with at least 60 receiving yards in the process. In the six games, he played at least 68% of the snaps, and Bryce Young was the starting quarterback; Coker had solid numbers with an 18.3% target share, 55.7 receiving yards per game, 1.89 yards per route run, and a 23.8% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). He averaged 11.4 PPR points per game with three top-36 weekly fantasy finishes (WR17, WR12, WR28). He looks like he's on the outside looking in for a starting spot in 2025, but one injury in camp or during the season could easily change that.
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199.
Wil Lutz
K - DEN (vs . LAC)
Will Lutz finished as fantasy's 8th-highest scoring kicker in 2024, averaging 9.4 PPG. It was his best season since 2019. But despite playing in Mile High, Lutz was outside the top-15 in attempts from 50-plus yards. However, he was nearly perfect from 20-49 yards with just one miss (including PATs). Nobody was better from 40-49 yards than Lutz in 2024 (100%).
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200.
Jack Bech
WR - LV (vs . KC)
Bech heard his name called during the NFL Draft earlier than many expected. The Raiders selected him with the 26th pick in the second round. Bech enters the building with the ability to push for a starting job out of the gate. Geno Smith will love the route running, tenacity, and sure hands (fourth in contested catch rate, minimum 20 contested targets in 2024) that Bech brings to the table. In his final season in college, Bech ranked 17th in receiving grade and 22nd in missed tackles forced (per PFF). The former tight-end plays with a physicality and passion that is infectious. Bech is a nice late-round flier.
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201.
Michael Wilson
WR - ARI (at LAR)
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202.
Brenton Strange
TE - JAC (vs . TEN)
Brenton Strange enters the 2025 season as the team's undisputed starter after Evan Engram's departure. Last year, Strange had seven games in which he played at least 60% of the snaps, where he averaged 9.2 fantasy points per game. In those games, he also saw a 14.8% target share with a 17.3% first-read share while producing 1.39 yards per route run, 36.1 receiving yards per game, and 0.071 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Those are pretty much TE2-worthy numbers across the board outside of the first-read share, which will decline some with Travis Hunter and Dyami Brown in town. If Hunter plays more defense than I'm currently projecting, Strange may have a Zach Ertz type of season where he racks up the volume because of a lack of receiving options and flirts with TE1 value.
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203.
Los Angeles Rams
DST - LAR (vs . ARI)
The Rams open the season against the Texans at home, followed by the Tennessee Titans. I like these opening matchups for the Rams D/ST and their fierce defensive line. They also play the Colts in Week 4.
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204.
Green Bay Packers
DST - GB (at MIN)
The Packers were No. 3 scoring DST and finished 7th in DVOA in 2024. But they have serious issues on the personnel side heading into 2025 at both the CB/EDGE positions.
They also open the year against the Lions/Commanders, which aren't exactly great defensive spots. I'd be wary of chasing last year's team that ranked middle of the pack in pressure rate. They benefited greatly from the third-most INTs despite finishing 31st in passes defended. |
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205.
Seattle Seahawks
DST - SEA (at SF)
Seattle has an average schedule, but they do have the third-biggest improvement year over year. Last year, the Seahawks' D/ST was the fantasy football de jour as the DST 5 through 17 weeks. This year, they are back in conversation. A matchup against San Francisco at home in Week 1 is OK, but Weeks 2-3 are salivating against the Steelers and Saints.
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206.
Dontayvion Wicks
WR - GB (at MIN)
Dontayvion Wicks entered 2024 as a trendy breakout pick but fell flat, finishing 87th in fantasy points per game (5.4) despite leading the Packers in targets. He repeated his 39-catch total from his rookie season, but his efficiency collapsed - dropping to 1.41 yards per route run (74th) after nearly 2.0 as a rookie. Drops (9) and underwhelming production plagued a season where he still posted a strong 29% target rate per route and ranked 4th in ESPN's Open Score. The Packers' selection of first-round WR Matthew Golden casts doubt on Wicks' short/long-term role, especially with Christian Watson's absence opening up competition. As a former Day 3 pick, Wicks is running out of chances to secure a consistent spot.
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207.
Adonai Mitchell
WR - IND (at HOU)
Adonai Mitchell is a dark-horse Year 2 breakout candidate after flashing elite efficiency in limited action as a rookie. He posted a 28% target rate per route run - a mark that would've ranked top-20 among WRs if he had qualified - and consistently created separation in his routes. The challenge in 2025 will be earning more consistent playing time in a crowded Colts receiver room featuring Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, and deep threat Alec Pierce. But with his ability to command targets and get open, Mitchell is a strong upside stash who could explode with an expanded role.
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208.
Chase McLaughlin
K - TB (vs . CAR)
Chase McLaughlin finished 2024 as the sixth-highest scoring kicker (9.6 PPG). It was his best season to date, and he might have been just scratching the surface. His 94% FG% led all kickers with at least 23 attempts. His two misses were on 50-yard tries. If the Buccaneers' 2024 4th-ranked red-zone offense regresses in any way, McLaughlin will benefit.
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209.
Chris Boswell
K - PIT (vs . BAL)
The Steelers kicker finished second in points scored in 2024, averaging 11.2 PPG. He connected on 93% of his FG attempts and tied for the NFL league lead in field goals made (41). Unfortunately for Boswell, he has regressed immensely after any of his top-10 career finishes. Be careful chasing last year's stats from a 34-year-old kicker who hit more 50-yarders than the two years prior COMBINED.
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210.
Devin Neal
RB - NO (at ATL)
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211.
Aaron Rodgers
QB - PIT (vs . BAL)
Last season, in many aspects, Aaron Rodgers looked like a shell of his former self. He finished as the QB19 in fantasy points per game despite operating in an offense with the fourth-highest passing rate over expectation (per Fantasy Points Data). I don't know if he gets anywhere near that type of pass-happy offensive design with Arthur Smith carrying the play-calling headset. Yes, Pittsburgh (fourth-lowest passing rate over expectation) will pass more in 2025, but they WILL NOT be a top 5-10 passing rate team. Then we are left to rely upon per-dropback efficiency from Rodgers, which in the year 2025 is hard to do. Last season, among 40 qualifying passers, he ranked 29th in yards per attempt, 39th in CPOE, 22nd in catchable target rate, and had the eighth-highest off-target rate. Rodgers is likely headed toward a QB2 season for fantasy purposes, where he gets lost in the QB2 noise and is only a viable streaming option when the matchup is right.
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212.
Ka'imi Fairbairn
K - HOU (vs . IND)
The Texans are tied for the second-most dome games played in 2025, setting the stage for Ka'imi Fairbairn to repeat as a top-5 kicker. He was the 4th-highest scoring kicker in 2024 (5th in PPG), leading all kickers in total attempts.
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213.
Chig Okonkwo
TE - TEN (at JAC)
Fantasy managers are still waiting for the Chig Okonkwo breakout season that they though might be coming after he flashed playmaking ability as a rookie in 2022. But we're now three seasons into Okonkwo's career, and he has yet to finish as a top-20 tight end in fantasy scoring. The optimistic case for an Okonkwo breakout in Year 4 is that No. 1 overall draft pick Cam Ward is an aggressive downfield thrower who could pump new life into the Titans' passing game, and Tennessee has a shortage of pass-catching weaponry. But first Okonkwo will have to win a training camp battle against fourth-round rookie Gunnar Helm.
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214.
Evan McPherson
K - CIN (vs . CLE)
Evan McPherson will play one game indoors all season in 2025. Therefore, I'd be careful investing too much into him this draft season. The Bengals' kicker is coming off a season-ending injury and he has failed to finish higher than K14 since his rookie campaign. His FG% have also declined for four straight seasons.
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215.
New York Jets
DST - NYJ (at BUF)
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216.
Andrei Iosivas
WR - CIN (vs . CLE)
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217.
Dalton Schultz
TE - HOU (vs . IND)
In 2024, Dalton Schultz hit five-year lows in targets (85) catches (53), receiving yards (532) and touchdowns (2). The result was a TE22 fantasy finish in half-point PPR scoring even though Schultz played all 17 of the Texans' games. A slight rebound is possible, but it's hard to see much fantasy upside for Schultz as he enters his age-29 season. WR Nico Collins figures to be the Texans' undisputed target leader, and Houston has also added veteran Christian Kirk and promising rookies Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel at receiver. Consider Schultz a midrange TE2 at best.
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218.
Darius Slayton
WR - NYG (vs . DAL)
After settling in as a solid WR5, Darius Slayton's star dimmed further in 2024 when he slipped to WR78 in fantasy points per game. This can be attributed to the Giants' horrendous quarterback situation. In Weeks 1-9 with Daniel Jones last season, Slayton was on pace for 60 receptions and 886 receiving yards. During that time, he had a 16% target share, 1.63 yards per route run, and a 15.5% first-read share (per Fantasy Points Data). Nothing here jumps off the page as anything more than a possible bye-week flex or best ball correlation pick for 2025.
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219.
Harrison Butker
K - KC (at LV)
Butker was the 27th-ranked kicker in 2024 (29th in PPG) as he missed time with a knee injury. The Chiefs' kicker has fallen off in two of the last three seasons, failing to finish inside the top 24. He only has one top-5 finish in the last five seasons. Given his last of recent production and KC's heavy outdoor schedule (two dome games), Butker should not be a priority kicking option even in attached to offense with Patrick Mahomes at the helm.
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220.
Justice Hill
RB - BAL (at PIT)
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221.
Tyler Bass
K - BUF (vs . NYJ)
Tyler Bass is coming off a disappointing 2024 campaign as the K17 in PPG (9th-highest scoring kicker). He has failed to meet expectations set after his rookie season with back-to-back finishes outside the top-8 kickers. Projects closer to a low-end fantasy kicker given the Bills play just two games indoors all season.
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222.
Mason Taylor
TE - NYJ (at BUF)
Taylor is headed to the Jets after they selected him in the second round of the NFL Draft. Taylor could become the number two target in the passing attack quickly, with only Josh Reynolds and Allen Lazard as his closest competition for targets. I wasn't nearly as enamored as many with Taylor as a prospect. His athleticism was solid, with a 4.68 40-yard dash and an 83rd percentile 3-cone. Taylor should develop into a solid starting NFL tight end, but I have a hard time seeing a pathway to elite status for Taylor. Across his three seasons at LSU, he never ranked higher than 63rd in yards per route run (per PFF). Taylor finished his collegiate career with only 5.4 yards after the catch per reception and 14 missed tackles forced (129 receptions). With the Jets lacking difference-making and high-end target-earning options outside of Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall, Taylor could easily be a volume-fueled low-end TE1 in 2025. He's a fantastic late-round TE2 pick.
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223.
Calvin Austin III
WR - PIT (vs . BAL)
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224.
Audric Estime
RB - DEN (vs . LAC)
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225.
Will Shipley
RB - PHI (vs . WAS)
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226.
Miles Sanders
RB - DAL (at NYG)
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227.
Jake Elliott
K - PHI (vs . WAS)
The Eagles' placekicker finished as the K12 in 2024 (8.3 PPG), but it came on sheer volume. He was outside the top 24 in FG% and hit just 2 of his 9 kicks from 50-plus yards. Elliott has bounced back from down seasons before and still showed his effectiveness in the Super Bowl.
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228.
Jaylin Noel
WR - HOU (vs . IND)
Noel was disrespected by the NFL as he dropped into the third round of the NFL Draft. The Houston Texans stopped his tumble and called his name with the 15th pick in the third round. I expect Noel to use this as fuel for the fire and walk into the building with a chip on his shoulder. Noel has the play strength, route prowess, and speed to play in the slot or on the outside. He could struggle to find playing time in his rookie season with Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, and his former collegiate teammate Jayden Higgins all sitting above him on the depth chart. Collins and Kirk have had their injury issues over the last few years, so it's easily possible that Noel will be starting by midseason. Last year, Noel ranked in the top 30 in receiving grade and yards per route run while sitting second in deep receiving yards among FBS wide receivers (per PFF). Noel is an awesome late-round flier.
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229.
Jaleel McLaughlin
RB - DEN (vs . LAC)
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230.
San Francisco 49ers
DST - SF (vs . SEA)
The Niners have the easiest schedule in the NFL in 2025. Perks of finishing in fourth place in the NFC West, combined with matchups against the AFC South and NFC South.
And even though they open up the season with back-to-back road contests, it's at Seattle and New Orleans. Sam Darnold and Tyler Shough. Draft the 49ers D/ST that should have better health in 2025 under defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. Their DST ranks No. 1 in the FantasyPros strength of schedule tool. |
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231.
Kyle Monangai
RB - CHI (vs . DET)
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232.
Jason Sanders
K - MIA (at NE)
The Dolphins' kicker finished as the No.5 kicker in fantasy in 2024, ranking 6th in PPG (9.8). Sanders has been a top-12 guy in the last two seasons and will be on the fantasy radar as a starting kicking option in 2025, playing the majority of his games in sunny Florida.
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233.
Keaton Mitchell
RB - BAL (at PIT)
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234.
Cole Kmet
TE - CHI (vs . DET)
There's no way around it: The Bears' selection of Michigan TE Colston Loveland with the 10th overall pick in this year's draft doesn't bode well for Cole Kmet's 2025 fantasy outlook. Kmet seemed to have a bright future after producing 73-719-6 in 2023 and finishing that season TE7 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. But Kmet averaged only 3.2 targets per game last season, with WRs D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze combining for a 68.7% target share. Moore and Odunze are still around, and the Bears not only drafted Loveland in the first round, but WR Luther Burden in the second round. It would probably take multiple injuries to Chicago pass catchers for Kmet to be fantasy-relevant this season.
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235.
Elijah Mitchell
RB - KC (at LV)
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236.
Keenan Allen
WR - FA (BYE)
Keenan Allen is still a free agent as we get closer to the opening of NFL training camps, but it seems only a matter of time before he signs with a new team. The 33-year-old Allen had 70-744-7 in 15 games for the Bears last season. Depending on where he lands, Allen could still be a worthwhile fantasy WR4 or WR5.
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237.
Younghoe Koo
K - ATL (vs . NO)
Younghoe Koo has struggled the last two seasons after a top-5 finish in 2022. The Falcons' schedule (12 dome games) suggests he should be primed for a bounce-back, but this team ALWAYS has a favorable preseason schedule. After finishing outside the top 15 in three of the last four seasons, he's a priority waiver target if your starting kicker goes down or is on a bye week.
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238.
Jalen Tolbert
WR - DAL (at NYG)
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239.
Ja'Tavion Sanders
TE - CAR (at TB)
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240.
Tyler Lockett
WR - TEN (at JAC)
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241.
Juwan Johnson
TE - NO (at ATL)
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242.
Devaughn Vele
WR - DEN (vs . LAC)
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243.
Elic Ayomanor
WR - TEN (at JAC)
Elic Ayomanor was drafted by the Titans in Round 4. The former Stanford standout brings a rare blend of size (6'2", 206), athleticism (4.4s speed, 82nd percentile jumps), and production - boasting the highest career dominator rating in the class (39%). Ayomanor posted 125 catches for 1,844 yards and 12 TDs across two seasons and flashed true X-receiver traits. In Tennessee, he lands in a WR room headlined by veterans Calvin Ridley and Tyler Lockett, presenting Ayomanor a realistic chance to rise the depth chart quickly and become Cam Ward's favorite rookie WR.
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244.
Raheem Mostert
RB - LV (vs . KC)
Raheem Mostert lands with the Raiders as Ashton Jeanty's backup. Jeanty should be the team's clear bell-cow, with Mostert only offering some change of pace carrries weekly. Mostert looked like a player on his last NFL legs last season, with only a 14% missed tackle rate and 1.76 yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). He's a deep league/final-round handcuff pick only.
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245.
Anthony Richardson Sr.
QB - IND (at HOU)
After two disappointing and injury-marred seasons, former fourth overall draft pick Anthony Richardson will have to earn the Colts' starting QB job in a training camp battle with ex-Giant Daniel Jones. Richardson played only four games as a rookie in 2023, with an October shoulder injury putting him on the shelf for the rest of the season. But Richardson offered glimpses of immense fantasy potential, with 136 rushing yards and four TD runs in those four games, along with three TD passes. But Richardson was a disaster as a passer last season, completing only 47.7% of his passes, with eight touchdowns and 12 interceptions. The 6-4, 244-pound Richardson is a remarkable physical specimen who still offers considerable fantasy upside because of his rushing ability, but his struggles as a passer threaten to derail his career.
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246.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
WR - MIA (at NE)
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247.
Pat Bryant
WR - DEN (vs . LAC)
The Denver Broncos surprised everyone by selecting Pat Bryant in the third round of the NFL Draft. In the post-draft presser, Sean Payton compared Bryant's game loosely to his former standout receiver, Michael Thomas. While I wasn't head over heels in love with Bryant during the pre-draft process, this comparison and his surprising draft capital do raise the antenna. Bryant quietly checks the analytical boxes that we look for, ranking 18th in yards per route run and seventh in receiving grade in his final collegiate season (per PFF). He's worth tossing a dart at with your final pick in redraft leagues. Denver needs another receiver to step in as an every-down contributor in the offense in 2025, opposite Courtland Sutton and Evan Engram.
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248.
Dallas Cowboys
DST - DAL (at NYG)
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249.
Jarquez Hunter
RB - LAR (vs . ARI)
Hunter is arbitrage Bhayshul Tuten in fantasy football drafts. Hunter, much like Tuten, is headed to the NFL (Rams) via the fourth round of the NFL draft. Also, like Tuten, Hunter finds himself possibly buried for 2025 behind two veterans, but he also possesses the talent and pathway to surpass one or maybe both of them in the running back pecking order. Kyren Williams is a free agent after this season. The Rams thought so much of Blake Corum's rookie season that they addressed running back again this year. Hunter is incredibly talented. Hunter has ranked inside the top 24 in yards after contact per attempt in each of the last three seasons while also sitting in the top 22 in breakaway percentage in two of three years (per PFF). Hunter offers the Rams an explosive element that neither Williams nor Corum has. Last year, among 46 qualifying backs, Williams ranked 44th in explosive run rate, 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). Hunter could be one of the best values of the fantasy football draft season.
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250.
Russell Wilson
QB - NYG (vs . DAL)
The Giants signed 36-year-old Russell Wilson to a one-year, $21 million deal in March, and he's the favorite to open the season as the Giants' starting QB. But Wilson might not have the job for long. The Giants traded up to take Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart late in the first round of this year's draft, and they also added veteran Jameis Winston in the offseason. Wilson made 11 starts for the Steelers last season and averaged 16.2 fantasy points per start. He'll be drafted as a QB3 in 2025 but might be useful as a spot starter in favorable matchups.
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251.
Brandin Cooks
WR - NO (at ATL)
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252.
Devin Singletary
RB - NYG (vs . DAL)
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253.
Kayshon Boutte
WR - NE (vs . MIA)
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254.
Diontae Johnson
WR - CLE (at CIN)
Diontae Johnson is a late-round lottery ticket that is worth purchasing for 2025. Yes, Johnson had a tumultuous 2024 season that led to his release twice last year, but these were related to locker room and playing time issues and not reflective of his talent at this juncture. Johnson was still the target hog last year when he was a starter that we have come to love. Last year, when healthy (Weeks 1-6), among 78 qualifying receivers, Johnson ranked 12th in target share (25.5%), 30th in receiving yards per game (56.7), fourth in first-read share (36.7%), and 21st in first downs per route run (0.100, per Fantasy Points Data). During that stretch, he was the WR28 in fantasy points per game. If he can't endear himself to the coaches in Cleveland and his teammates, he might not break camp with the team, but it's equally possible that he will make the team and become a strong target earner again. If that's the case, Johnson is a wonderful value this season.
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255.
Joshua Karty
K - LAR (vs . ARI)
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256.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DST - TB (vs . CAR)
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257.
Matt Gay
K - WAS (at PHI)
Matt Gay wrapped up 2024 as the 14th-highest scoring kicker and 13th in PPG (8.7). He was money from 20-49 yards (100% conversion rate), but he was just 3-for-9 from 50 yards. Last year was his final year with the Indianapolis Colts, who released him to save money against the salary cap. He signed a one-year deal with the Commanders with the most guaranteed money for a kicker in NFL history. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts to post-life in non-dome games. Gay has never finished worse than K14 in a full season since 2019. The Commanders were top-5 in FG attempts per game in 2024, with Austin Seibert leading all kickers in PPG (12.8) through nine games. If Gay's long-distance kicking can rebound closer to his career average (71%), that could put him over the top.
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258.
Ollie Gordon II
RB - MIA (at NE)
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259.
Mike Williams
WR - LAC (at DEN)
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260.
Kenneth Gainwell
RB - PIT (vs . BAL)
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261.
Elijah Arroyo
TE - SEA (at SF)
Second-round rookie Elijah Arroyo will be given every chance to replace perennial underachiever Noah Fant as Seattle's top tight end. One of the more athletic members of this year's talented rookie TE class, Arroyo had 595 receiving yards and seven TD catches in his final college season at the University of Miami-Fla., then stood out in Senior Bowl practices. A major rookie-year impact seems unlikely, but Arroyo is certainly worth monitoring.
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262.
Tahj Brooks
RB - CIN (vs . CLE)
Brooks lands in Cincy via the sixth round of the NFL Draft. With the depth of his running back class, it isn't surprising to see him having slipped that far down the board, but it still sucks. Brooks has the talent that should have justified an earlier pick and would have had he come out last year. Brooks will need to hop Zack Moss (assuming health) and Samaje Perine on the depth chart to even be proclaimed as the direct handcuff to Chase Brown. I think he has the talent to do so, but it remains to be seen if he can achieve it. Texas Tech's run blocking was abysmal last year, and it hurt Brooks' tackle-breaking numbers. In 2023, he ranked 60th in yards after contact per attempt and 37th in elusive rating (per PFF). Brooks is a final-round pick/deep league dart throw.
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263.
Trevor Etienne
RB - CAR (at TB)
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264.
Dyami Brown
WR - JAC (vs . TEN)
Dyami Brown quietly broke out late last season with the Washington Commanders and parlayed that strong finish into a one-year, $10 million deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars. It's a notable signing by the new Jacksonville regime - especially since GM James Gladstone mentioned he was high on Brown coming out of UNC, believing he offered more than just vertical speed. While all the buzz surrounds Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, Brown could carve out a larger role than most expect. Hunter's potential two-way deployment (WR/DB) could open the door for Brown to function more prominently as the Jaguars' No. 2 wide receiver - particularly if injuries strike.
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265.
Antonio Gibson
RB - NE (vs . MIA)
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266.
Brashard Smith
RB - KC (at LV)
Smith was another talented victim of this deep running back class. He dropped all the way to the seventh round of the NFL Draft, which was surprising. The Chiefs added him to their already overstocked backfield. The Chiefs are no strangers to allowing a seventh-round running back a legit shot at starting (hi, Isiah Pacheco), so we can't say that Smith has zero shot. I was enamored with Smith's receiving ability as a converted wide receiver, his lightning quickness, and his possible upside as a rusher for a player who is still getting acclimated to the position. Last year, Smith ranked 34th in breakaway percentage, second in receiving grade, and 22nd in yards per route run (per PFF). Smith's skill set is different from every other back in this depth chart. He could easily carve out a stand-alone role as Kansas City's new Jerick McKinnon.
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267.
Roman Wilson
WR - PIT (vs . BAL)
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268.
Jalen Royals
WR - KC (at LV)
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269.
Daniel Jones
QB - IND (at HOU)
After six topsy-turvy seasons with the Giants and a late-season stint as Sam Darnold's backup in Minnesota last season, Daniel Jones signed a one-year, $14 million deal with the Colts, who'll give him a chance to compete with Anthony Richardson for the starting job. Jones had a good fantasy season in 2022, finishing QB9 in fantasy scoring that year, largely on the strength of 708 rushing yards and seven TD runs. But Jones was ineffective in 2024, and the Giants benched him after 10 starts. Because of his rushing ability, the 28-yard Jones could have some low-level fantasy value if he's able to beat out Richardson.
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270.
Amari Cooper
WR - FA (BYE)
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271.
Noah Gray
TE - KC (at LV)
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272.
Elijah Moore
WR - BUF (vs . NYJ)
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273.
Harold Fannin Jr.
TE - CLE (at CIN)
Harold Fannin put up absurd numbers at Bowling Green last season, catching 117 passes for 1,555 yards and 10 touchdowns. The good news about Fannin's NFL landing spot is that the Browns spent a third-round pick on him. The bad news is that Cleveland already has David Njoku as its primary tight end. Fannin's hands and movement skills should translate to the NFL -- eventually. But at 230 pounds, Fannin might not be an every-down tight end. The prospects of a fantasy-relevant season for Fannin in 2025 seem remote at best.
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274.
Sean Tucker
RB - TB (vs . CAR)
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275.
Malik Washington
WR - MIA (at NE)
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276.
Khalil Herbert
RB - IND (at HOU)
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277.
Cleveland Browns
DST - CLE (at CIN)
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278.
Noah Fant
TE - SEA (at SF)
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279.
Tim Patrick
WR - DET (at CHI)
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280.
Ty Johnson
RB - BUF (vs . NYJ)
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281.
Zack Moss
RB - CIN (vs . CLE)
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282.
Isaiah Davis
RB - NYJ (at BUF)
With a new regime in New York calling the shots for the Jets, it's possible that Isaiah Davis can overtake Braelon Allen as the team's RB2. Yes, I know he only had 30 carries last year, but his per-carry numbers were quite nice, and they trumped Allen. Davis had a 6.7% explosive run rate, a 20% missed tackle rate, and a whopping 3.10 yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). If this is truly an open competition in camp, Davis could be the RB2 on the depth chart before Week 1.
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283.
Jordan James
RB - SF (vs . SEA)
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284.
Alexander Mattison
RB - MIA (at NE)
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285.
Tre Tucker
WR - LV (vs . KC)
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286.
Taysom Hill
TE - NO (at ATL)
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287.
Woody Marks
RB - HOU (vs . IND)
The Texans added Marks to their backfield in the fourth round of the NFL Draft. he looks like a passing down back upgrade over Dare Ogunbowale, who can also take on some early down work to spell Joe Mixon occasionally. I wasn't high on Marks as a prospect. Since 2021, he never finished higher than 102nd in yards after contact per attempt or elusive rating (per PFF). He could siphon off some targets from Mixon, though. He has ranked 26th or higher in receiving grade in three of the last four seasons.
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288.
Chicago Bears
DST - CHI (vs . DET)
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289.
Tyler Shough
QB - NO (at ATL)
Second-round draft pick Tyler Shough has a chance to start for the Saints in Week 1 now that Derek Carr has announce his retirement, although Spencer Rattler and perhaps Jake Haener also have a chance to earn the starting QB job in New Orleans. Shough bounced from Oregon to Texas Tech to Louisville in college and didn't play a full season as a starter until his seventh year in a college program. The 25-year-old Shough is a late bloomer, but his combination of size, mobility and arm talent make him an intriguing. Just don't expect much of a rookie-year impact for fantasy.
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290.
Jalen Nailor
WR - MIN (vs . GB)
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291.
Xavier Restrepo
WR - TEN (at JAC)
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292.
Dameon Pierce
RB - HOU (vs . IND)
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293.
Theo Johnson
TE - NYG (vs . DAL)
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294.
Daniel Carlson
K - LV (vs . KC)
The Raiders play the second-most games indoors in 2025. Daniel Carlson has one finish outside the top-10 in the last five seasons (2023).
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295.
Christian Watson
WR - GB (at MIN)
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296.
Joe Flacco
QB - CLE (at CIN)
Joe Flacco is the favorite to be the Browns' starting quarterback in Week 1 of the 2025 season, but Cleveland has a crowded QB room. The Browns also signed former Steeler Kenny Pickett in the offseason, then drafted Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. After his 11-year run with the Ravens, Flacco has reinvented himself as a daring gunslinger late in his career. In stints with the Jets, Browns and Colts over the last five years, Flacco has averaged 269.9 passing yards over 20 starts, with 36 touchdowns and 21 interceptions. The Browns have incentive to give Gabriel and Sanders 2025 auditions before they decide whether to take a quarterback in what looks like a QB-rich 2026 draft, so the 40-year-old Flacco may not be the starter for long. But Flacco is such an aggressive thrower that he'll be fantasy-viable for as long as he starts.
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297.
Parker Washington
WR - JAC (vs . TEN)
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298.
Sincere McCormick
RB - LV (vs . KC)
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299.
Kimani Vidal
RB - LAC (at DEN)
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300.
Gabe Davis
WR - FA (BYE)
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301.
Terrance Ferguson
TE - LAR (vs . ARI)
Rookie Terrance Ferguson has a chance to make an immediate contribution to the Rams, who took him in the second round of the draft. A terrific athlete who posted a Relative Athletic Score of 9.30, Ferguson has more than 40 catches in each of his last two college seasons at Oregon. Playing in Sean McVay's offense and catching passes from Matthew Stafford has its perks, but there might not be much target spillover for Ferguson with WRs Puka Nacua and Davante Adams around.
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302.
Jaxson Dart
QB - NYG (vs . DAL)
The Giants traded up to select Dart late in the first round of this year's draft. They have the luxury of bringing Dart along slowly after signing veteran QBs Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston in the offseason, but Dart could be the starter by midseason if the veterans struggle or if the Giants' season starts to go sideways. Dart has an NFL-caliber arm and a quick release, and he's capable of providing fantasy value as a runner. But Dart could have a difficult adjustment transitioning from Lane Kiffin's QB-friendly system at Ole Miss to the NFL.
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303.
Damien Martinez
RB - SEA (at SF)
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304.
Tory Horton
WR - SEA (at SF)
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305.
Luke McCaffrey
WR - WAS (at PHI)
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306.
Darren Waller
TE - MIA (at NE)
Darren Waller is coming out of retirement to join the Dolphins on a one-year deal. With Jonnu Smith leaving Miami for Pittsburgh, Waller could start for the Dolphins. He turns 33 in September and hasn't given us a good fantasy season since 2020. It would probably be a mistake to expect Waller to produce the same sort of numbers Jonnu put up last year in his breakthrough season, but it's possible Waller could be fantasy-relevant if the Miami passing attack continues to be more horizontal than vertical, as it was for most of last season.
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307.
Emanuel Wilson
RB - GB (at MIN)
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308.
Isaac TeSlaa
WR - DET (at CHI)
The Lions traded up to select Arkansas wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa in Round 3 of the NFL Draft - a clear sign they were determined to get their guy. A 6-foot-4, 214-pound athletic marvel, TeSlaa tested in the 88th percentile or better in the vertical jump, broad jump, and 20-yard shuttle, while also flashing 4.43 speed. Despite modest counting stats in the SEC, he was extremely efficient. TeSlaa posted the fourth-highest passer rating when targeted (145.5) in the FBS last year and earned a perfect rating on targets of 20+ air yards - a testament to his big-play ability. While immediate target volume may be tough to come by in Detroit's loaded offense, he's one injury away from stepping into a sizable role.
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309.
Oronde Gadsden II
TE - LAC (at DEN)
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310.
Ty Chandler
RB - MIN (vs . GB)
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311.
Jason Myers
K - SEA (at SF)
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312.
Jermaine Burton
WR - CIN (vs . CLE)
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313.
Phil Mafah
RB - DAL (at NYG)
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314.
Tez Johnson
WR - TB (vs . CAR)
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315.
Chris Brooks
RB - GB (at MIN)
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316.
Shedeur Sanders
QB - CLE (at CIN)
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317.
Tyler Higbee
TE - LAR (vs . ARI)
Tyler Higbee is a strong TE2 who could flirt with TE1 production in 2025. Last year, he spent almost the entire season recovering and ramping up from ACL and MCL injuries. He had a brief cup of coffee in Weeks 16-17, playing 26-29% of the snaps before ramping up further in Weeks 18-20. In Weeks 18-20, Higbee had an 18.8% target share, 2.43 yards per route run, a 25.7% first-read share, and 0.123 first downs per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). These are all elite usage marks, but I don't expect them to continue this season with Cooper Kupp exchanged for Davante Adams and Terrance Ferguson added to the equation. Ferguson will likely be a part-time player in his rookie season with a gradual ramp-up, with Ferguson taking over as the team's starting tight end in 2026 when Higbee leaves as a free agent. This could still cut into Higbee's route share, but what helps Higbee is that this is an extremely consolidated passing attack. If Higbee is the clear number three option and Matthew Stafford's passing touchdown rate bounces back, he could finish as a low-end TE1.
|
|
318.
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
RB - WAS (at PHI)
|
|
319.
New England Patriots
DST - NE (vs . MIA)
Against a brutal schedule, New England ranked 30th in takeaways in 2024. They were a straight-up dumpster fire. But with Mike Vrabel taking over as head coach, we should expect a completely different unit in 2025. They revamped the defense in free agency and boast the second-easiest schedule in the NFL on forecasted Vegas win totals.
They open against the Raiders at home, followed by an early road trip to Miami and then back-to-back home games versus Carolina and Pittsburgh. The Pats D/ST is probably a strong bet to be a reliable unit, given the ease of schedule in addition to the personnel improvements they made this offseason. The Pats were 13th in passes defended last season, but they came away with just 7 interceptions (bottom-5). They also ranked 27th in opponent fumbles. Turnovers should regress in their favor in 2025. |
|
320.
Will Dissly
TE - LAC (at DEN)
|
|
|
321.
Dont'e Thornton Jr.
WR - LV (vs . KC)
I love the addition of Thornton to this Raiders' wide receiver room. He fits in nicely with the receivers they already have on the roster as a field-stretching compliment. He should be starting in three wide receiver sets shortly over Tre Tucker. Thornton had only 34 targets last season, but he posted a whopping 3.72 yards per route run (per PFF). With his elite build-up speed, he will take the top off of plenty of defenses in 2025. If Las Vegas hands Thornton Jr. the D.K. Metcalf route tree in year one as a full-time starter, he could surprise people, but that's not a given. It's tough to project him to become a high-end target share earner in 2025, but he could easily offer some week-winning upside from the flex when the matchup is right.
|
|
|
322.
Raheim Sanders
RB - LAC (at DEN)
|
|
323.
Will Reichard
K - MIN (vs . GB)
Before his injury in Week 9, Will Reichard was averaging 10.4 PGG. After he returned fully healthy in Week 14, he averaged 11 PPG. All in all, the rookie kicker's PPG (when removing the game he was hurt) equates to 10.7 PPG - a top-5 number in 2025. Given how the Vikings benefit from a schedule that features 11 dome games, Reichard is a priority "sleeper" kicker to select in a high-powered offense that could go through some red-zone growing pains with an inexperienced second-year QB.
|
|
324.
Ben Sinnott
TE - WAS (at PHI)
|
|
|
325.
Tyler Loop
K - BAL (at PIT)
Following in the footsteps of Justin Tucker will not be an easy task. I'd be bearish that rookie Tyler Loop can take that step immediately in Year 1. Baltimore plays one game indoors all season.
|
|
326.
Gus Edwards
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
327.
Tutu Atwell
WR - LAR (vs . ARI)
Tutu Atwell continues to be one of Sean McVay's favorite projects - and you have to respect the commitment. Despite weighing just 155 pounds, Atwell has carved out a unique role in the Rams' offense, thanks to McVay's creative play-calling. In 2024, Atwell ranked 19th among wide receivers in yards per route run (2.24), stepping up early in the season when both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp missed time. From Weeks 2-7, he averaged a respectable 7.6 fantasy points per game (WR55), showing he can be serviceable in deeper formats. Looking ahead to 2025, offseason reports indicate Atwell is expected to see increased playing time in three-wide receiver sets alongside Nacua and Davante Adams.
|
|
328.
Tyler Conklin
TE - LAC (at DEN)
|
|
329.
Miami Dolphins
DST - MIA (at NE)
The Dolphins open the season at the Colts and at home against the Patriots. Even though they are entering the year with low expectations (rightfully so, given the state of the defense), they could easily surprise with some early-season wins. I like their fantasy D/ST in these opening two matchups as well in deeper formats. They take on Buffalo in Week 3, but then get two more good matchups between the Jets and Panthers.
|
|
330.
Jordan Whittington
WR - LAR (vs . ARI)
|
|
|
331.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
RB - WAS (at PHI)
Jacory Croskey-Merritt was a predraft love lister for me. Sadly, he dropped all the way to the seventh round of the NFL Draft before the Commanders picked up the phone. If Croskey-Merritt hadn't had his 2024 season cut off by an eligibility issue, he would have gone much higher than this. His 2023 season was excellent. He ranked 19th in yards after contact per attempt and 12th in elusive rating (per PFF). He's a no-nonsense runner who makes one cut and gets downhill. He'll have his work cut out for him to climb up a crowded running back depth chart, but he has the talent to do so. He could exit training camp as Washington's RB2 and Brian Robinson Jr.'s clear handcuff.
|
|
332.
Ray-Ray McCloud III
WR - ATL (vs . NO)
|
|
|
333.
Tai Felton
WR - MIN (vs . GB)
|
|
334.
Zamir White
RB - LV (vs . KC)
|
|
335.
Arizona Cardinals
DST - ARI (at LAR)
The No.1 DST target that you have no excuse for missing out on in 2025. Arizona opens the schedule against the Saints, followed by Panthers, 49ers, Seahawks, Titans, Colts and Packers from Weeks 1-7. The team improved the defense by selecting exclusively defensive players in this year's draft, and they should get major contributions from guys like second-year player Darius Robinson and free agent acquisition Josh Sweat. Arizona has been one of the most injured defenses over the last two seasons.
|
|
336.
John Metchie III
WR - HOU (vs . IND)
|
|
337.
Demarcus Robinson
WR - SF (vs . SEA)
|
|
338.
Jalen Milroe
QB - SEA (at SF)
|
|
339.
Cam Akers
RB - NO (at ATL)
|
|
340.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
WR - SEA (at SF)
|
|
341.
Troy Franklin
WR - DEN (vs . LAC)
|
|
342.
New York Giants
DST - NYG (vs . DAL)
|
|
343.
A.J. Dillon
RB - PHI (vs . WAS)
|
|
|
344.
Savion Williams
WR - GB (at MIN)
|
|
345.
Dawson Knox
TE - BUF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
346.
Samaje Perine
RB - CIN (vs . CLE)
|
|
347.
Noah Brown
WR - WAS (at PHI)
|
|
348.
Josh Reynolds
WR - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
349.
Justin Tucker
K - FA (BYE)
|
|
350.
Jake Moody
K - SF (vs . SEA)
Jake Moody struggled with injuries in 2024, resulting in a 24th overall finish. Two years into his NFL career, he has yet to eclipse the top-20 kickers. Opportunities should be there for him entering Year 3, given that 49ers have ranked third in FG attempts in 2024. However, if the red zone offense improves, Moody will be left out of the scoring more often than not.
|
|
351.
KaVontae Turpin
WR - DAL (at NYG)
KaVontae Turpin quietly showed explosive potential in 2024, finishing 26th among all WRs in yards per route run (2.06) and earning targets on 26% of his routes - an elite rate. Though he never played more than 50% of snaps in any game, Dallas clearly values his dynamic skillset, re-signing him to a three-year, $18 million deal this offseason. With George Pickens presumed to be the WR2, Turpin still has a chance to carve out a meaningful role, especially in creative packages. He's a deep sleeper to monitor, particularly in best ball formats or return-yardage leagues.
|
|
352.
Michael Mayer
TE - LV (vs . KC)
|
|
|
353.
Chimere Dike
WR - TEN (at JAC)
|
|
354.
Brandon McManus
K - GB (at MIN)
|
|
355.
Allen Lazard
WR - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
|
356.
Donovan Edwards
RB - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
357.
Tank Dell
WR - HOU (vs . IND)
|
|
358.
Kirk Cousins
QB - ATL (vs . NO)
|
|
359.
Luke Musgrave
TE - GB (at MIN)
|
|
360.
Spencer Rattler
QB - NO (at ATL)
|
|
361.
Isaiah Bond
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
362.
Cam Little
K - JAC (vs . TEN)
|
|
363.
Mack Hollins
WR - NE (vs . MIA)
|
|
364.
Jameis Winston
QB - NYG (vs . DAL)
|
|
365.
Kenny Pickett
QB - CLE (at CIN)
|
|
366.
Curtis Samuel
WR - BUF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
367.
Washington Commanders
DST - WAS (at PHI)
The Commanders are nearly TD-favorites at home in Week 1 versus the New York Giants. It's just the cherry on top of a very favorable DST schedule for Washington. After Big Blue: Packers, Raiders and Falcons. They also drafted WR Jaylin Lane in the 4th round of this year's draft and he could provide a spark on special teams.
|
|
368.
Greg Dortch
WR - ARI (at LAR)
|
|
369.
Austin Hooper
TE - NE (vs . MIA)
|
|
|
370.
Gunnar Helm
TE - TEN (at JAC)
|
|
371.
Trey Sermon
RB - PIT (vs . BAL)
|
|
|
372.
Jaylin Lane
WR - WAS (at PHI)
Jaylin Lane enters the NFL as a fourth-round pick by the Washington Commanders, initially expected to make his mark as the team's starting punt returner. But don't rule out a larger offensive role. With Terry McLaurin in the final year of his contract and Deebo Samuel on a one-year deal with an extensive injury history, Lane has a realistic path to becoming the starting slot receiver in Washington - especially with last year's third-round pick Luke McCaffrey failing to impress. Lane is a dynamic playmaker and elite athlete. Measuring in at 5-foot-10, 191 pounds, he ran a sub-4.4 40, jumped at least 11'0″ in the broad, and cleared 40″ in the vertical, making him one of just eight WRs to hit all three athletic benchmarks since 2003. He ranked 4th in the 2025 class in YAC per reception (8.5) and has over 100 career kick/punt returns, reinforcing his playmaking ability in space.
|
|
373.
Atlanta Falcons
DST - ATL (vs . NO)
|
|
374.
Ameer Abdullah
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
|
375.
LeQuint Allen Jr.
RB - JAC (vs . TEN)
|
|
376.
Jeremy McNichols
RB - WAS (at PHI)
|
|
377.
Robert Woods
WR - PIT (vs . BAL)
|
|
378.
Van Jefferson
WR - TEN (at JAC)
|
|
379.
Cairo Santos
K - CHI (vs . DET)
|
|
380.
Will Levis
QB - TEN (at JAC)
|
|
381.
Foster Moreau
TE - NO (at ATL)
|
|
382.
Eddy Pineiro
K - FA (BYE)
|
|
383.
Jahan Dotson
WR - PHI (vs . WAS)
|
|
384.
Matt Prater
K - FA (BYE)
|
|
385.
Blake Grupe
K - NO (at ATL)
|
|
386.
Emari Demercado
RB - ARI (at LAR)
|
|
387.
Tommy Tremble
TE - CAR (at TB)
|
|
|
388.
Kalel Mullings
RB - TEN (at JAC)
|
|
|
389.
Ja'Quinden Jackson
RB - JAC (vs . TEN)
|
|
390.
Mason Rudolph
QB - PIT (vs . BAL)
|
|
|
391.
Theo Wease Jr.
WR - MIA (at NE)
|
|
392.
Kendrick Bourne
WR - NE (vs . MIA)
|
|
|
393.
Antwane Wells Jr.
WR - NYG (vs . DAL)
|
|
394.
Chad Ryland
K - ARI (at LAR)
No team plays more indoor games than the Arizona Cardinals in 2025. Chad Ryland was PFF's 5th-highest graded kicker in 2024,
|
|
395.
Olamide Zaccheaus
WR - CHI (vs . DET)
|
|
396.
Jonathon Brooks
RB - CAR (at TB)
|
|
|
397.
Arian Smith
WR - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
|
398.
Dillon Gabriel
QB - CLE (at CIN)
|
|
399.
Craig Reynolds
RB - DET (at CHI)
|
|
400.
Jalin Hyatt
WR - NYG (vs . DAL)
|
|
401.
Luke Schoonmaker
TE - DAL (at NYG)
|
|
402.
Stone Smartt
TE - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
403.
D'Ernest Johnson
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
404.
Indianapolis Colts
DST - IND (at HOU)
|
|
405.
Ja'Lynn Polk
WR - NE (vs . MIA)
|
|
406.
Graham Gano
K - NYG (vs . DAL)
|
|
407.
Josh Oliver
TE - MIN (vs . GB)
|
|
408.
Hunter Luepke
RB - DAL (at NYG)
|
|
409.
Cade Stover
TE - HOU (vs . IND)
|
|
410.
Cincinnati Bengals
DST - CIN (vs . CLE)
|
|
411.
Cordarrelle Patterson
RB - PIT (vs . BAL)
|
|
412.
Jacob Cowing
WR - SF (vs . SEA)
|
|
|
413.
Malachi Corley
WR - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
414.
New Orleans Saints
DST - NO (at ATL)
|
|
415.
Aidan O'Connell
QB - LV (vs . KC)
|
|
416.
Kyle Juszczyk
RB - SF (vs . SEA)
|
|
417.
Nick Folk
K - FA (BYE)
|
|
418.
Javon Baker
WR - NE (vs . MIA)
|
|
419.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
RB - NO (at ATL)
|
|
420.
Grant Calcaterra
TE - PHI (vs . WAS)
|
|
421.
Las Vegas Raiders
DST - LV (vs . KC)
|
|
|
422.
Will Howard
QB - PIT (vs . BAL)
|
|
423.
AJ Barner
TE - SEA (at SF)
|
|
424.
Kenny McIntosh
RB - SEA (at SF)
|
|
425.
Kalif Raymond
WR - DET (at CHI)
|
|
|
426.
KeAndre Lambert-Smith
WR - LAC (at DEN)
KeAndre Lambert-Smith quietly put together one of the most underrated profiles in the 2025 rookie WR class. After four years at Penn State, he transferred to Auburn and broke out in a big way, posting a 31% dominator rating with a 50-981-8 receiving line. It's rare to see a player switch to the SEC and immediately produce, but Lambert-Smith finished top-5 in the conference in total receiving yards and averaged nearly 20 yards per catch. Drafted in the 5th round by the Chargers, Lambert-Smith lands in a favorable spot as a downfield weapon for Justin Herbert.
|
|
427.
Treylon Burks
WR - TEN (at JAC)
|
|
428.
Julius Chestnut
RB - TEN (at JAC)
|
|
429.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR - KC (at LV)
|
|
430.
Zay Jones
WR - ARI (at LAR)
|
|
431.
Joe Milton III
QB - DAL (at NYG)
|
|
432.
Alec Ingold
RB - MIA (at NE)
|
|
|
433.
Chris Tyree
WR - NO (at ATL)
|
|
434.
Tyler Goodson
RB - IND (at HOU)
|
|
435.
Deuce Vaughn
RB - DAL (at NYG)
|
|
436.
Zach Wilson
QB - MIA (at NE)
|
|
437.
Julian Hill
TE - MIA (at NE)
|
|
|
438.
Mitchell Evans
TE - CAR (at TB)
|
|
439.
Tyler Badie
RB - DEN (vs . LAC)
|
|
440.
C.J. Ham
RB - MIN (vs . GB)
|
|
|
441.
Kyle Williams
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
442.
Patrick Taylor Jr.
RB - SF (vs . SEA)
|
|
443.
Marcus Mariota
QB - WAS (at PHI)
|
|
444.
Tavon Austin
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
445.
KhaDarel Hodge
WR - ATL (vs . NO)
|
|
446.
Greg Dulcich
TE - NYG (vs . DAL)
|
|
447.
Jonathan Mingo
WR - DAL (at NYG)
|
|
448.
Michael Carter
RB - ARI (at LAR)
|
|
449.
Dare Ogunbowale
RB - HOU (vs . IND)
|
|
450.
Darnell Washington
TE - PIT (vs . BAL)
|
|
|
451.
Efton Chism III
WR - NE (vs . MIA)
|
|
452.
Michael Gallup
WR - WAS (at PHI)
|
|
453.
Elijah Higgins
TE - ARI (at LAR)
|
|
454.
Devontez Walker
WR - BAL (at PIT)
|
|
|
455.
Kaden Prather
WR - BUF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
456.
Josh Whyle
TE - TEN (at JAC)
|
|
457.
Jake Bobo
WR - SEA (at SF)
|
|
458.
DeAndre Carter
WR - CLE (at CIN)
|
|
459.
Brevin Jordan
TE - HOU (vs . IND)
|
|
|
460.
Brock Lampe
RB - NE (vs . MIA)
|
|
461.
Hunter Renfrow
WR - CAR (at TB)
|
|
462.
Ezekiel Elliott
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
463.
Bub Means
WR - NO (at ATL)
|
|
464.
Carson Steele
RB - KC (at LV)
|
|
|
465.
Luke Lachey
TE - HOU (vs . IND)
|
|
466.
Pharaoh Brown
TE - MIA (at NE)
|
|
467.
Sam Howell
QB - MIN (vs . GB)
|
|
468.
Rasheen Ali
RB - BAL (at PIT)
|
|
|
469.
Jordan Watkins
WR - SF (vs . SEA)
|
|
470.
Jeremy Ruckert
TE - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
471.
Tyler Johnson
WR - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
472.
David Moore
WR - CAR (at TB)
|
|
473.
Malik Willis
QB - GB (at MIN)
|
|
474.
Rondale Moore
WR - MIN (vs . GB)
|
|
475.
Hassan Haskins
RB - LAC (at DEN)
|
|
476.
Colby Parkinson
TE - LAR (vs . ARI)
|
|
|
477.
Marcus Yarns
RB - NO (at ATL)
|
|
478.
Mo Alie-Cox
TE - IND (at HOU)
|
|
479.
Jawhar Jordan
RB - HOU (vs . IND)
|
|
|
480.
Jaydn Ott
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
481.
Dylan Laube
RB - LV (vs . KC)
|
|
482.
Jacksonville Jaguars
DST - JAC (vs . TEN)
|
|
483.
Sterling Shepard
WR - TB (vs . CAR)
|
|
484.
Troy Hairston II
RB - CLE (at CIN)
|
|
485.
Frank Gore Jr.
RB - BUF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
486.
Kylen Granson
TE - PHI (vs . WAS)
|
|
487.
Michael Woods II
WR - CLE (at CIN)
|
|
488.
Ronnie Rivers
RB - LAR (vs . ARI)
|
|
489.
Pierre Strong Jr.
RB - CLE (at CIN)
|
|
490.
Derius Davis
WR - LAC (at DEN)
|
|
491.
Daniel Bellinger
TE - NYG (vs . DAL)
|
|
|
492.
Lan Larison
RB - NE (vs . MIA)
|
|
|
493.
Julian Fleming
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
494.
Adam Trautman
TE - DEN (vs . LAC)
|
|
495.
Michael Burton
RB - DEN (vs . LAC)
|
|
|
496.
Corey Kiner
RB - SF (vs . SEA)
|
|
497.
Velus Jones Jr.
RB,WR - NO (at ATL)
|
|
498.
Payne Durham
TE - TB (vs . CAR)
|
|
499.
Mac Jones
QB - SF (vs . SEA)
|
|
500.
Jacoby Brissett
QB - ARI (at LAR)
|
|
|
501.
McKenzie Milton
QB - FA (BYE)
|
|
502.
Brock Wright
TE - DET (at CHI)
|
|
|
503.
Jimmy Horn Jr.
WR - CAR (at TB)
|
|
504.
Tyrod Taylor
QB - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
|
505.
Nick Nash
WR - ATL (vs . NO)
|
|
506.
Hunter Long
TE - JAC (vs . TEN)
|
|
507.
Jelani Woods
TE - IND (at HOU)
|
|
508.
Deshaun Watson
QB - CLE (at CIN)
|
|
509.
Tyler Boyd
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
510.
Xavier Smith
WR - LAR (vs . ARI)
|
|
511.
Mecole Hardman Jr.
WR - GB (at MIN)
|
|
512.
Cedrick Wilson Jr.
WR - NO (at ATL)
|
|
513.
Brennan Eagles
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
514.
Parris Campbell
WR - DAL (at NYG)
|
|
515.
Gardner Minshew II
QB - KC (at LV)
|
|
516.
Taylor Heinicke
QB - LAC (at DEN)
|
|
517.
Sione Vaki
RB - DET (at CHI)
|
|
518.
David Bell
WR - CLE (at CIN)
|
|
519.
Jamari Thrash
WR - CLE (at CIN)
|
|
520.
Harrison Bryant
TE - PHI (vs . WAS)
|
|
521.
Patrick Ricard
RB - BAL (at PIT)
|
|
|
522.
Kye Robichaux
RB - DET (at CHI)
|
|
523.
Cooper Rush
QB - BAL (at PIT)
|
|
524.
Tanner Hudson
TE - CIN (vs . CLE)
|
|
525.
Jared Wiley
TE - KC (at LV)
|
|
526.
Israel Abanikanda
RB - SF (vs . SEA)
|
|
527.
Luke Farrell
TE - SF (vs . SEA)
|
|
|
528.
Amar Johnson
RB - GB (at MIN)
|
|
529.
Josiah Deguara
TE - ARI (at LAR)
|
|
530.
Travis Homer
RB - CHI (vs . DET)
|
|
|
531.
Tre Stewart
RB - MIN (vs . GB)
|
|
532.
Kyle Trask
QB - TB (vs . CAR)
|
|
|
533.
Josh Williams
RB - TB (vs . CAR)
|
|
534.
Drew Sample
TE - CIN (vs . CLE)
|
|
535.
John Bates
TE - WAS (at PHI)
|
|
536.
Jake Browning
QB - CIN (vs . CLE)
|
|
537.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey
WR - NYG (vs . DAL)
|
|
538.
Erick All Jr.
TE - CIN (vs . CLE)
|
|
539.
DeeJay Dallas
RB - ARI (at LAR)
|
|
540.
Trenton Irwin
WR - JAC (vs . TEN)
|
|
541.
Ainias Smith
WR - PHI (vs . WAS)
|
|
542.
Ronnie Bell
WR - DET (at CHI)
|
|
|
543.
Jacardia Wright
RB - SEA (at SF)
|
|
544.
Justin Watson
WR - HOU (vs . IND)
|
|
545.
Tylan Wallace
WR - BAL (at PIT)
|
|
546.
Joshua Dobbs
QB - NE (vs . MIA)
|
|
547.
Eric Gray
RB - NYG (vs . DAL)
|
|
548.
Michael Wiley
RB - WAS (at PHI)
|
|
549.
Brevyn Spann-Ford
TE - DAL (at NYG)
|
|
550.
Jase McClellan
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
|
551.
Ricky White III
WR - SEA (at SF)
|
|
552.
Teagan Quitoriano
TE - ATL (vs . NO)
|
|
553.
Drew Ogletree
TE - IND (at HOU)
|
|
554.
Xavier Hutchinson
WR - HOU (vs . IND)
|
|
555.
Jimmy Garoppolo
QB - LAR (vs . ARI)
|
|
556.
Trent Sherfield Sr.
WR - DEN (vs . LAC)
|
