Fantasy Football Player Notes
2023 Draft Rankings
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1.
Christian McCaffrey
RB - SF
CMC was traded to the 49ers prior to the team's Week 7 game against the Kansas City Chiefs. But it didn't take long for him to take on a massive role, going for 40-plus fantasy points in just his second game in a San Fran uniform. He would go on to lead all running backs in fantasy points scored from Weeks 8-17 averaging 20.5 fantasy half-points per game (also first). From Week 8 onward (13 games including postseason play), CMC averaged 19.5 points per game and 17.3 expected fantasy points per game. Both would have ranked first among all RBs in 2022. McCaffrey averaged nearly 20 touches per game - 76% average snap share in non-blowout games - while catching nearly five balls per game as PFF's third-highest-graded running back. Even with the 49ers opening the season with a very crowded offense in 2023, McCaffrey while healthy is the best bet to see the highest production among the talented group in the Bay Area.
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2.
Jonathan Taylor
RB - IND
2023 was a year to forget for the consensus 1.01 in fantasy football drafts. Jonathan Taylor underperformed as the RB30 in 11 games averaging 12.6 fantasy points as the RB18 when healthy. JT's usage was that of a top-8 running back - 8th in expected points per game, 4th in touches per game (20) - but a lack of touchdowns decimated his fantasy stock in the Colts' anemic offense. After scoring a combined 33 TDs through his 1st two seasons, Taylor scored just four rushing TDs in 2022. But I'd expect a bounce-back effort from Taylor in 2023. He will be healthier in 2023. When Taylor first returned from injury (Weeks 10-13) he ranked as the RB3 overall. And he's primed for positive TD regression entering the final year of his rookie deal.
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3.
Austin Ekeler
RB - LAC
No player has scored more touchdowns over the past two seasons, than Austin Ekeler. The Chargers' red-zone machine scored 18 TDs (5 receiving, 13 rushing) a year after scoring 20 touchdowns in 2021. Simply put, those that faded Ekeler due to TD regression narratives got burned this past season. And the touchdowns were just part of Ekeler's RB1 finish in half-point scoring, as he lead all RBs in receptions and targets, which substantially boosted his fantasy numbers. Ekeler was fully unlocked as a receiver with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams combining for 13 missed games. Until the Chargers WRs can prove they can stand the test of a 17-game season, Ekeler will remain the focal point of LA's offense. Especially if the Chargers fail to make any worthwhile addition in their backfield, because nobody currently on the depth chart is "forcing" their way onto the field.
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4.
Saquon Barkley
RB - NYG
Saquon Barkley was finally healthy in 2022 and reaped the rewards of playing in a much better offensive environment. The 2023 free agent finished as the RB5 overall and in points per game, as he was able to recapture his explosive upside as both a rusher and receiver. Barkley finished second in overall touches (352) and backfield opportunity share (80%) behind only Josh Jacobs through 17 weeks. He also scored 10 rushing TDs with 23 carries inside the 10-yard line. In 2021, Barkley totaled just 13 red-zone touches all season. Let Barkley's return to glory show that you want to target young impending FA RBs in improved offensive situations that project to earn high volume with proven records of production.
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5.
Kenneth Walker III
RB - SEA
Kenneth Walker III stood as the RB8 from Weeks 6-17 after Rashaad Penny was placed on IR with a season-ending injury. The rookie was the RB9 in points per game. If you remove the two games he missed due to injury (Weeks 13/14) he averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game, which would have placed him as the RB8 in points per game. I was out on Walker early on during the draft process, but his early injuries throughout the preseason eventually made him a draft-day steal. We all knew that Rashaad Penny was never going to be "the guy" for the long run based on his injury track record and that Walker would likely take over RB1 duties as an uber-talented second-round pick. He did just that and got absolutely FED after returning from a late-season ankle injury. Walker was either consistently playing 70 percent-plus snaps or carrying the ball 23-plus times. And at times, we even saw Walker earn a large number of targets while leading the backfield in routes run. Needless to say, he's got "the" fantasy RB1 overall upside in 2023.
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6.
Nick Chubb
RB - CLE
Nick Chubb just put together the quietest 1,525 rushing-yard season in recent memory. The Browns running back averaged 5 yards per carry (again) and posted a career-high 13 touchdowns. He finished the year as the RB6 overall with a top 10 backfield opportunity share (64%), but most of his fantasy production came prior to Deshaun Watson returning to the lineup. During Weeks 1-12, Chubb was the RB4 overall and in points per game. From Weeks 13-17 with Watson at quarterback, he was the RB23 overall and RB33 in points per game. These splits likely won't carry over into 2023 based on Watson likely boosting the offense's overall efficiency making Chubb a near-bust-proof draft pick based on his track record of consistency. Chubb also can capture a more prominent role as a receiver with Kareem Hunt and D'Ernest Johnson gone in free agency. 2022 5th-rounder Jerome Ford is pegged as the No. 2 RB. In Week 18, Chubb played a season-high 75% snap share, ran a route on 71% of dropbacks and caught 5-of-6 targets (22% target share) for 45 yards.
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7.
Derrick Henry
RB - TEN
Derrick Henry made fantasy drafters that overlooked him look silly in 2022, finishing the season as the RB4 overall and in points per game (18.3). He finished second in carries and third in rushing yards (23.4 touches per game) while also posting career highs in targets, receptions and yards per route run. The bad offensive situation hardly influenced Henry's fantasy numbers and he did not seem hampered by the foot injury that knocked him out of the second half of the 2021 season. Fading Henry in 2022 was betting on him to hit the wall playing behind a shaky offensive line finally. And that bet did not go well. But another year of a heavy workload combined with the Titans' grim 2023 outlook with major questions on offense, will bring concerns about drafting Henry early in 2023.
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8.
Josh Jacobs
RB - LV
Josh Jacobs was arguably the most valuable fantasy asset during the fantasy football regular season based on his finish as the RB2 overall in relation to his super cheap draft-day ADP. The market was convinced that Jacobs would become part of a dreaded RB-by-committee under new head coach Josh McDaniels, but that was hardly the case. He was a full-blown bellcow for the Raiders leading the NFL in touches through 17 weeks. The 24-year-old is returning to Las Vegas on the franchise tag after leading the NFL with 1,653 rushing yards. With a similar cast of characters returning as depth behind him, it's hard to envision the Raiders not heavily leaning on him again as a true featured back.
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9.
Justin Jefferson
WR - MIN
Justin Jefferson was a fantasy monster this season. He was the WR2 in fantasy points per game, ranking first in targets, first in red zone targets, and ninth in deep targets. Jefferson was a top-five-scoring fantasy wideout in 52.9% of his games. He was also eighth in open rate (per FiveThirtyEight). Jefferson will be a top-three fantasy pick in 2023.
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10.
Travis Kelce
TE - KC
All hail the king of tight ends! Travis Kelce has finished TE1 in PPR fantasy scoring in six of the last seven seasons, settling for a runner-up finish behind Mark Andrews in 2021. The gap between Kelce and all other tight ends was a vast chasm in 2022. Kelce averaged 19.2 PPR points; the next-closes tight end, T.J. Hockenson, averaged 13.3 fantasy points. Kelce has strung together seven consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, and he's averaged 8.4 touchdowns per year over that span. In 2022, he had a career-high 110 catches for 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns. Age is the only real concern for Kelce, who turns 34 in October. But he's been indestructible for most of his career. He missed a game in 2020 due to COVID-19, but Kelce hasn't missed a game due to injury over the last nine years. Kelce is a worth first-round pick in fantasy drafts, and you can make a strong case that he should be a top-five pick.
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11.
Ja'Marr Chase
WR - CIN
Chase followed up a stellar rookie campaign with a banner sophomore season. He was sixth in target share (29.3%), ninth in air yard share (36.6%), and the WR4 in fantasy points per game. Despite only playing 12 regular season games, he finished third in red zone targets and fourth in total touchdowns. Chase is a top-three fantasy receiver in 2023 and a locked-in first-round pick.
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12.
Travis Etienne Jr.
RB - JAC
From Weeks 7-17 - removing the game versus Baltimore when Travis Etienne left with an injury - the Jaguars running back averaged 15 fantasy points per game (RB8 in points per game) and was the standing RB10 in total half-points scored. ETN would proceed to finish the 2022 fantasy regular season tied for 5th in carries inside the 10-yard line (23), but he only scored four touchdowns on those carries. He's primed to see his TD numbers climb with the backfield all but his from the get-go in 2023 in ascending offense. Etienne also just scratched the surface of how he can contribute in the passing game. The receiving "role" has been his in terms of routes run most weeks in 2022, but targets did not always follow with Trevor Lawrence preferring Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram - who all stayed healthy in 2022. If one of those guys goes down in 2023 we will probably see ETN see a boosted receiving role. The second-year rusher averaged a 22% target rate per route in 3 of his last four games played. No. 2 running back/pass-catcher JaMycal Hasty and former Cleveland Brown D'Ernest Johnson are behind him on the current depth chart.
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13.
Tony Pollard
RB - DAL
Tony Pollard will play for the Cowboys on the franchise tag in 2023. Ezekiel Elliott has already been released after showing a major lack of juice as a rusher in 2022, averaging a career-low 3.7 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Pollard finished the season as the fantasy RB7 - despite ranking outside the top 25 in touches per game - as PFF's 3rd-highest graded running back. Pollard scored more fantasy points than any other running back (19.3 per game) from Weeks 7-16 when he was consistently playing 53% or more of the snaps as the team's featured back. The team added Ronald Jones in free agency, but he's hardly a threat to a healthy Pollard's touch volume.
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14.
Cooper Kupp
WR - LAR
Despite the entire Rams' offense cratering around him last season, Cooper Kupp was on his way to another fantastic season before being shut down with a high ankle sprain. With the Rams out of the playoff picture and the team in shambles, Los Angeles put Kupp on the shelf. Kupp ranked third in target share (31.0%), fourth in target per route run rate (31.5%), and 12th in air yard share (34.5%). All of this culminated in another WR1 finish in fantasy points per game. With Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford returning for 2023, Kupp should be a top-three fantasy wideout again.
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15.
Davante Adams
WR - LV
Davante Adams might be getting long in the tooth, but he showed no signs of slowing down last year. He finished with at least 100 receptions, 1,300 receiving yards, and 11 receiving touchdowns for the fourth time in the last five seasons. He led all wide receivers in target share (32.6%) while also ranking fifth in air-yard share (39.4%) and eighth in fantasy points per route run. Adams should be a fine WR1 in 2023.
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16.
Tyreek Hill
WR - MIA
Tyreek Hill showed no decline with the move from Kansas City to South Beach. Hill was the WR3 in fantasy points per game as he accumulated five weeks with 140 or more receiving yards. He led the league in deep targets while scoring nine total touchdowns (fourth). He amassed a ridiculous 31.6% target share (second-best) while ranking first in yards per route run. If the Dolphins scheme him up more targets in the red zone next season (40th among wide receivers), he could finish as the WR1 overall.
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17.
Stefon Diggs
WR - BUF
Diggs remains among the elite wide receivers in the NFL. He has now stacked three consecutive seasons with at least 100 receptions, 1,225 receiving yards, and eight receiving scores. Diggs was the WR6 in fantasy points per game while also ranking sixth in open rate (per ESPN analytics). He also finished top-ten in target share (tenth), red zone targets (fourth), and yards per route run (third). Diggs could begin to slow down as he's entering his age 30 season, but I fully believe he has at least 1-2 more electric seasons as a top 5-10 fantasy wide receiver before the cliff arrives.
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18.
A.J. Brown
WR - PHI
A.J. Brown was everything the Eagles could have hoped for after making the trade in the offseason. Brown finished as the WR8 in fantasy with career highs across the board. The concerns about Jalen Hurts supporting an elite wide receiver in fantasy quickly dissipated. He was eighth in raw target volume (146), seventh in deep targets, and 12th in red zone looks. Brown is entering his prime (age 26 season) with an ascending elite quarterback in one of the best offenses in football. Brown is a locked-in WR1 in 2023.
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19.
Breece Hall
RB - NYJ
There's no denying that Breece Hall possesses the talent to be one of the best running backs in the NFL after a stellar rookie season that was unfortunately cut short by a torn ACL. The Jets first-year running back was the RB6 in half-point scoring points per game in just 7 games played (15.4). He averaged 5.8 yards per carry as a rusher and ranked fourth in yards after contact per attempt (4.13) before his season-ending knee injury. Hall also ranked 4th in RB receiving yards while posting an elite 34.4% target rate per route run. The only hesitance with drafting Hall stems from his October ACL injury that can keep guys off the field for 9-to-12 months. Although the latest reports suggest that Hall is progressing faster than expected and believe he could be ready for training camp.
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20.
CeeDee Lamb
WR - DAL
Lamb finished with one of the quietest 100 reception (107) and 1,300 receiving yard (1,359) seasons in recent memory as the WR7 in fantasy. The "CeeDee Lamb alpha season" that we have been waiting for finally came to fruition. He was seventh in target per route run rate and sixth in yards per route run as he broke out as one of the league's elite talents. Even with Mike McCarthy calling plays in 2023, Lamb remains primed for another WR1 campaign.
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21.
Najee Harris
RB - PIT
The Pittsburgh Steelers running back took a slight step backward in his second season, falling to RB14 in points per game after a top-5 fantasy season as a rookie. However, his usage metrics were still very strong across the board. Harris still operated as a pseudo-workhorse ranking 6th in opportunity share (70%) and 8th in total touches through the first 17 weeks of the season. Harris also improved drastically after the team's bye week operating as the RB7 in points per game over the last 9 weeks of the season. After tallying zero games with 20 carries through the first 8 weeks, Harris totaled 5 games with 20-plus carries during the second half of 2022. Should the Steelers undergo an offensive surge in Kenny Pickett's second season, Harris could easily get back into the top-tier fantasy RB tier.
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22.
Jaylen Waddle
WR - MIA
Jaylen Waddle enjoyed an explosive sophomore season as the underneath complement to Tyreek Hill in the Dolphins' high-flying aerial attack. Waddle was the WR12 in fantasy, ranking tenth in YAC, seventh in receiving yards, and 11th in total touchdowns. Waddle was also fourth in yards per route run and third in fantasy points per target. He's an ascending alpha wide receiver who could easily lead the Dolphins in receiving in 2023 if Tyreek Hill shows any signs of slowing down.
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23.
Mark Andrews
TE - BAL
After catching 107 passes for 1,361 yards and nine touchdowns and leading all tight ends in fantasy scoring in 2021, Mark Andrews was off to a hot start in 2022 before his production fell off in October. Andrews had 39-455-5 over his first six games but then had 34-392-0 over his last nine games while dealing with knee and shoulder issues, along with the late-season absence of injured QB Lamar Jackson. The upside remains vast for the 27-year-old Andrews, who's a worthy TE target if you miss out on Travis Kelce.
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24.
George Kittle
TE - SF
George Kittle remains one of the NFL's most talented tight ends and is arguably the hardest to tackle. He's coming off a strange season in which he scored a career-high 11 touchdowns but averaged 51 receiving yards per game -- the fewest since his rookie year in 2017. Kittle has been remarkably efficient as a pass catcher, with a career average of 9.6 yards per target. The question is whether Kittle will be targeted often enough to suit his fantasy managers. The 49ers are in flux at the QB position, and Kittle will have to share targets with RB Christian McCaffrey and WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.
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25.
Dalvin Cook
RB - MIN
We may have finally seen the end of Dalvin Cook's elite status among fantasy RBs in 2022. The Vikings star RB finished dead last among all ball carries in rushing EPA and rushes for zero or negative yardage. Cook ended the season as the RB8 overall and RB10 in points per game despite earning the league's 4th-highest opportunity share (78%). Should Minnesota invest in the running back position with Alexander Mattison hitting free agency, we could see Cook's role on offense reduced in 2023.
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26.
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB - NE
Damien Harris is now with the Buffalo Bills (replaced by James Robinson) which suggests that Rhamondre Stevenson's role/production in 2023 will be more of what we saw from Weeks 5-16 (RB13 in points per game) when Harris was either not active or not 100% when playing. Even when Harris played alongside Stevenson, the Patriots RB finished third in route participation (58%) and targets (82) among running backs. And remember Stevenson's strong 2022 campaign en route to an RB10 finish was not fueled by touchdowns. In fact, Stevenson was one of the worst RBs converting from inside the 10-yard line as he scored just thrice despite 19 goal-line carries. His teammate Harris scored thrice from inside the 10 - on just 6 carries. If Stevenson experiences positive TD regression, he undoubtedly will build off a strong sophomore season. Fantasy managers should be rejoiced by the swap from Harris to Robinson after the latter was unwanted by two different teams and was benched in favor of an undrafted free agent Zonovan Knight with the Jets. Stevenson will be fine. And J-Rob likely prevents the Patriots from adding anybody else better. In the worst case, from the Stevenson perspective, Robinson operates in a Harris role. But recall that Stevenson was hardly scoring TDs anyway last season and still finished as a fantasy RB1.
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27.
Tee Higgins
WR - CIN
Tee Higgins saw declines across the board last season as he fell from WR12 in fantasy points per game to WR26. His final stat lines look eerily similar, but we must remember he accomplished his 2021 accolades in only 14 games. Higgins saw declines in his PFF receiving grade (82.8 vs. 78.8), target share (23.9% vs. 18.6%), and yards per route run (2.18 vs. 1.80 per PFF). In 2021 Higgins competed with Ja'Marr Chase as the complimentary co-lead of the Bengals' passing attack, but we saw that change in 2022. After Chase returned in Week 13, he saw a 29.6% target share and 38.3% air yard share, while Higgins lagged at 20.2% and 31.1%. With Chase distancing himself more from Higgins in the pecking order, Higgins is best valued as a WR2 in 2023.
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28.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR - DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown proved that his sensational rookie season stretch run was no fluke as he stepped up as one of the best young wide receivers in the game. St. Brown finished as the WR10 ranking 11th in target share, third in target per route run rate, eighth in red zone targets, and fourth in YAC. With only six total touchdowns, St. Brown could be even better in 2023 if the volume remains stable. After starting with seven red zone targets over his first four games, he only saw one red zone target over the next four weeks. Over his final nine games, he amassed 15 red zone targets. If that usage remains stable inside the 20 for the entire 2023 campaign, St. Brown could easily be staring at a double-digit touchdown season and a top-five fantast wideout finish.
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29.
Garrett Wilson
WR - NYJ
Garrett Wilson had a fantastic rookie season, underscored by his WR30 finish in fantasy points per game. Wilson was ninth in PFF receiving grade, 23rd in YAC per reception, and 25th in yards per route run (per PFF minimum 50 targets). Wilson was also 14th in receiving yards (1,103), 16th in receptions (83), and ninth in red zone targets. If his quarterback play improves in 2023, the sky is the limit. Wilson had to suffer through the sixth-most unrealized air yards, 93rd-ranked target quality, and 92nd-ranked catchable target rate. Wilson should be viewed as a WR2 with WR1 upside in 2023.
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30.
J.K. Dobbins
RB - BAL
Coming back from major knee surgery, J.K. Dobbins' 2022 season debut was delayed until Week 3. And he posted middling results, failing to surpass 50 rushing yards or 13 carries in any game with little receiving usage to speak of (6 targets). It was revealed that Dobbins needed another knee surgery after Week 6 and he was placed on IR until Week 14. It wasn't until Dobbins came back later in the year that fantasy managers got a glimpse of what the talented RB displayed as a rookie. The Ravens RB1 played in five games (including playoffs) averaging 6.6 yards per carry, 92 rushing yards, and 14 carries per game. Although he still split time with Gus Edwards - nearly identical carry totals in the Wild Card Round loss to the Bengals - and Dobbins' receiving usage remained obsolete with just 7 targets total to close out the year (5 of which came versus Cincinnati).
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31.
DeVonta Smith
WR - PHI
The Eagles utilized DeVonta Smith in a different role in 2022 than during his rookie season, and the results were beautiful. In 2021 Smith was ninth in deep targets and sixth in aDOT among wide receivers as Philly rolled him out a field stretcher. While Smith was solid in this role, his upside as a zone-destroying intermediate-level threat was seized in 2022. Smith still finished 19th in deep targets among wideouts, but his aDOT dropped to 9.9 (65th) as he began to gobble up targets. Smith was 13th in targets (136), 14th in target share (27.0%), and 19th in target per route run rate (26.2%). He finished with 95 receptions (ninth-best), 1,196 receiving yards (eighth), and seven total touchdowns (14th) as the WR14 in fantasy. Smith was 18th in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). With a consolidated target tree and an ascending quarterback talent in Philly, Smith is poised to be a solid WR2 again in 2023.
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32.
Josh Allen
QB - BUF
Josh Allen finished QB2 in fantasy scoring behind Patrick Mahomes last season after finishing QB1 in 2020 and 2021. Allen remains capable of putting fantasy teams on his shoulders in any given week with multi-TD spike games. He's thrown for more than 4,000 yards in three straight seasons and has finished with 35 to 37 TD passes every year during that span. Allen adds immense value with his legs. He's run for 700+ yards in each of the last two years and has had at least six TD runs in each of his five NFL seasons. Allen is likely to be the first QB off the board in most 2023 fantasy drafts.
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33.
Calvin Ridley
WR - JAC
The last time we saw Calvin Ridley, he was still among the best receivers in the league. In 2021, Ridley was seventh in target share (27.4%), fourth in air yard share (40.0%), and fifth in route win rate. Ridley and Ryan couldn't find their old chemistry as Ryan's skills were profoundly diminishing. Ridley was subjected to backup quarterback-level target quality that ranked 63rd. His catchable target rate was only 71.2% (73rd). While it's worth pondering what version of Ridley we'll see returning from hiatus, don't for a second think he was playing poorly in 2021 despite the fantasy results not being there. With Trevor Lawrence taking a huge step forward in 2022, Ridley will be a WR2 next season.
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34.
Cam Akers
RB - LAR
Reflecting on Cam Akers' 2022 season is truly polarizing. He was a total zero from the get-go, essentially getting benched in Week 1. And then he looked like he was going to be outright cut by the Rams. Akers was shaping up to be one of the worst draft picks of the 2022 season.
But eventually - Week 13 to be exact - Akers did inherit the Rams RB1 role and he delivered as the fantasy RB4 during the last six weeks of the year. But it was a little too late for most fantasy managers who couldn't survive the dead 3rd/4th round pick that Akers was to start the first 12 weeks of the season. With LA potentially overhauling things, Akers will again be a truly polarizing player in 2023 fantasy drafts. Did he do enough in the final 6 weeks as the NFL's leading rusher (85 rushing yards per game) to retain bell-cow-type usage under a potential new coach? Only time will tell. The good news is that Sean McVay intends to return to Los Angeles, which bodes well for Akers to remain the go-to guy in the backfield. Recall, that Akers played 100% of the snaps in the Rams' season finale, an extremely rare number for any RB to reach injuries withstanding. |
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35.
Aaron Jones
RB - GB
Drafters were expecting Aaron Jones to lead the Green Bay Packers in receptions and receiving yards in the post-Davante Adams lineup, which did not come to fruition. Although his 59 catches did rank second on the team behind only Allen Lazard, Jones caught fewer passes than the year before. His catches per game (3.5) were identical to the year before. He saw a career-high in targets (72), but that was based on his 17 games played. His 4.3 targets per game were also identical to the year before. And Jones was the epitome of a boom-or-bust running back that his fantasy managers are too familiar with that isn't super obvious based on his RB9 finish and RB12 status in points per game. A.J. Dillon got more involved in the second half of the season, especially in the red zone. From Week 9 onward, Dillon out-carried Jones inside the 10-yard line 14 to 5. And they scored the same amount of points total from Week 11 through Week 17, with Dillion scoring 6 rushing TDs. If Dillon's goal-line role carries over from the tail-end of the 2022 season, that significantly could hinder Jones' fantasy upside even after a year that saw the 28-year-old finish second in PFF rushing grade. Dillon finished 5th in PFF rushing grade last season and will hit free agency at the end of the 2023 season.
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36.
Patrick Mahomes II
QB - KC
Arguably the best pure passer to ever play in the NFL, Patrick Mahomes enters his age-28 season at the height of his powers. Mahomes led all players in fantasy scoring last season with 428.4 points, giving him his second QB1 finish. In his five full seasons as a starter, Mahomes has averaged 303 passing yards and 23.95 fantasy points per game. Playing his first season without WR Tyreek Hill, who left for Miami, Mahomes finished the 2022 season with a career-high 5,250 passing yards and a league-high 41 TD passes. Mahomes is the safest bet you can make at quarterback.
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37.
Deebo Samuel
WR - SF
Without his "wide back" role and with the 49ers bottling him up as a check-down specialist again, Deebo Samuel struggled to a WR28 finish in 2022. He still drew a strong share of the 49ers' passing offense with a 25.4% target share (19th), but his aDOT was 4.2 (102nd), and he only saw five deep targets (108th) and 12 red zone looks (36th). Without the rushing equity and high-leverage roles to help pad his fantasy production, Samuel dissolved into a WR3. With the quarterback situation remaining unsettled in San Francisco in 2023 and the onus remaining on running the ball, Samuel will remain a WR3.
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38.
Amari Cooper
WR - CLE
Amari Cooper finally turned into the high-volume receiver we have wanted for years as he finished as the WR17. Cooper amassed a 26.1% target share (16th), a 26.1% target per route run rate (20th), and a 38.3% air yard share (seventh). Cooper will be entering his age 30 season, so there's some concern if his production could begin to taper off. Cooper turned back the hands of time with his highest yards per route run last season since 2019. Cooper was also 12th in red zone and deep targets. As long as Deshaun Watson can return to some shade of his former self at quarterback, Cooper should be able to turn in another WR2 campaign.
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39.
DK Metcalf
WR - SEA
Metcalf has seen his fantasy production decline in three straight seasons after opening his first two seasons as the WR10 and WR20 in fantasy points per game, he found himself sitting at WR24 after the 2022 season. Metcalf's finish was fueled by three massive games in which he finished with at least 127 receiving yards as the WR7 or higher in weekly scoring. He was a rollercoaster wide receiver who also had six weeks as a WR55 or lower in weekly scoring. Metcalf's overall metrics in 2022 still put him in the WR2 bucket when projecting forward to 2023. He was 18th in target share (25.5%), tenth in air yard share (36.3%), and 34th in yards per route run. Metcalf was also 12th in deep target and second in red zone targets among receivers.
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40.
Chris Olave
WR - NO
Chris Olave had a magnificent rookie season as a target vacuuming wide receiver with future alpha potential. Olave finished as the WR25 in fantasy points per game, which doesn't do any justice to his sparkling efficiency metrics. Olave was 15th in target share (26.7%), third in air yard share (40.8%), and tenth in target per route run rate (29.3%). He was seventh in open rate (ESPN analytics), immediately behind Stefon Diggs, while also ranking tenth in yards per route run. With Michael Thomas back, Olave will fight Thomas tooth and nail for the WR1 role in this offense. If he can improve on his 11 red zone targets (40th) and four total touchdowns (37th), he could easily finish as a WR1 in 2023.
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41.
Christian Watson
WR - GB
Christian Watson was the talk of the town after blowing up the Senior Bowl and combine last year. Worries about Watson began to mount for many in camp and during the early part of the season as he dealt with nagging injuries. Once healthy, Watson proved that the cream does rise to the top. He emerged as the Packers' clear number-one wideout. Watson ranked 14th in open rate (per ESPN analytics), 12th in yards per route run, and third in fantasy points per route run. He was fourth in YAC per reception behind only Deebo Samuel, Rondale Moore, and Jaylen Waddle (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). Even with Green Bay's quarterback situation unsettled for 2023, Watson can still emerge as a strong WR2 that has huge WR1 upside.
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42.
Joe Mixon
RB - CIN
It truly was a tale of two seasons for Joe Mixon. In Weeks 1-8, Mixon struggled immensely averaging 3.3 yards per carry as the RB19 in points per game. No running back scored fewer fantasy points versus expected because he just couldn't seem to find the end zone. But as the newer pieces of the offensive line started to gel, Mixon's production took off in the form of positive touchdown regression. He finished the season (including the postseason) as PFF's second-highest-graded running back headlined by an elite 5-touchdown game versus the Panthers in Week 9. In his eight healthy games from Weeks 9 to the conference championship, he averaged 16.7 fantasy points per game (equivalent to RB5 on the season). All in all, Mixon finished 6th in touches per game (19.5) and second in carries inside the 10-yard line (28) from Weeks 1-17, but only scored five touchdowns. The career-high receiving usage (60 catches for 441 yards on 70 targets) paved the way for Mixon's RB8 finish in points per game. However, it should be noted that the team did involve Samaje Perine more down the stretch after he filled in admirably during Mixon's injury (Weeks 11-13). Perine out-snapped Mixon in two of the Bengals' three playoff games and routinely ran more routes. But Mixon still averaged nearly four catches per game. I wouldn't envision his receiving role on early downs changing even if he loses snaps to another RB on third downs. Former Michigan running back Chris Evans projects to take a larger role on third downs after Samaje Perine signed with the Denver Broncos.
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43.
DJ Moore
WR - CHI
The 2022 season was another sad year of D.J. Moore suffering through the "Allen Robinson" experience as one of the league's most talented receivers that's being held back by mediocre quarterback play. Moore was the WR33 in fantasy as he dealt with a target quality rating and catchable target rate outside of 90th among receivers. Moore still managed to rank 27th in PFF receiving grade and 32nd in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets per PFF). We witnessed his floor last season as Moore was 12th in target share (27.7%), 17th in target per route run rate (26.8%), and fourth in deep targets. Justin Fields will be the best passer that Moore has worked with to this point. While the target volume concerns are justified for Moore in Chicago's offense, he has already displayed the ability to earn targets at a high rate. If the Bears' passing volume surprises with the receiving upgrades this offseason, Moore will happily pay off his ADP. Moore is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 in 2023 that could easily finish as a top-15 receiver.
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44.
T.J. Hockenson
TE - MIN
A midseason trade to the Vikings invigorated T.J. Hockenson in 2022. In seven games with the Lions, he averaged 6.1 targets and had 26 catches in seven games. After the trade, Hockenson averaged 8.6 targets in Minnesota and had 60 catches in 10 games. He also had 10 catches for 129 yards in the Vikings' playoff loss to the Giants. Entering his age-26 season, Hockenson is in the prime of his career and is an attractive option at the TE position now that he's with a team eager to leverage his pass-catching talents.
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45.
Jalen Hurts
QB - PHI
Hurts gave us a taste of his fantasy potential in 2021 and then cooked a seven-course meal in 2022, improving his passing numbers across the board, providing enormous rushing value and leading all quarterbacks with 25.6 fantasy points per game. Hurts was a highly efficient passer in his second full season as a starter, completing 66.5% of his throws at 8.0 yards per attempt, with a miniscule 1.3% INT rate. But it's the running game where Hurts really makes his bones. He ran for 13 touchdowns last year and has 23 TD runs over the last two seasons. Hurts has topped 750 rushing yards in each of the last two seasons, averaging 51.5 rushing yards per game over that span. He plays behind one of the best offensive lines in football and can throw to three terrific targets: A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Hurts belongs on the top QB tier along with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.
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46.
Miles Sanders
RB - CAR
Miles Sanders signed with the Carolina Panthers reuniting him with many familiar faces from his days with the Philadelphia Eagles. Duce Staley (former Eagles RB coach), Frank Reich (former Eagles coach) and Josh McCown (former Eagles QB) have all seen what Sanders can do, and that surely played a part in bringing him on as the team's 1-for-1 replacement for new Chicago Bears running back D'Onta Foreman. At a minimum, Sanders will operate as the main back on early downs, while Chuba Hubbard (RB62) and Raheem Blackshear split work on third downs. But I say at a minimum because those guys still have to prove themselves to the new coaching staff to earn substantial roles. Sanders has already proven his worth with these coaches before. And last year he showed everyone what he was capable of when he finished as the RB10 in half-point scoring overall/RB13 in points per game from Weeks 1-17. He ended the year averaging just south of five yards per carry and scored 13 rushing TDs after scoring zero in 2021. His carries inside the 10-yard line ranked inside the top five among all RBs.
And when Sanders saw his best-receiving usage to date - 50 receptions for 509 yards as a rookie in 2019 - it was under Staley's tenure. With Sanders' uber-efficient rushing running behind an offensive line that finished 9th in adjusted line yards in 2022, Carolina is a great landing spot for him. His rushing alone should earn him production similar to what we saw from Foreman after the team traded away Christian McCaffrey. From Week 7 onward, Foreman sat as the RB21 in total points and RB22 in points per game. He ranked fourth in the NFL in total rushing yards (852). But his path to back-end RB2 status was not consistent whatsoever. Foreman rushed for over 110 yards in half of the last ten games, while finishing with fewer than 40 rushing yards in four of his others. His inconsistency was due to a lack of pass-game work causing him to be completely phased out of games that Carolina was out-matched in. But, I don't think that will necessarily be the case for Sanders. The former Eagle has the chance to be a full-blown workhorse with an expanded receiving role based on the four-year, $25 million ($13 million guaranteed) commitment from his new team. |
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47.
Dameon Pierce
RB - HOU
The Houston Texans looked like they struck gold with Dameon Pierce early on during the season, as the rookie running back looked like the early favorite to take home offensive rookie of the year honors with a hot start. Pierce stepped in and immediately became the team's bellcow in Week 2. From that time until Week 10, Pierce ranked 5th in the NFL in rushing yards (739) averaging north of 19 carries and 92 rushing yards per game. He was the fantasy RB12 overall and in points per game. Other Texans RBs combined for just 11 carries versus Pierce's 154 over this stretch. However, the Florida product seemed to have hit a wall in the middle of the year totaling just 16 rushing yards against Washington and Miami through Weeks 11-12. However, these two defenses would turn out to be some of the tougher matchups for all RBs, so that's likely the cause of Pierce's fall-off in production. The tackle-breaking machine more than proved that he still had juice left in the tank with two strong outings to conclude his season versus Dallas and Cleveland. However, he suffered a season-ending ankle injury that would knock him out for the rest of the season - just 61 yards away from 1,000 rushing yards on the year. Despite the missed games, he still finished 4th in missed tackles forced and 1st in missed tackles forced per attempt (28%) among RBs with at least 100 carries. Pierce should lead the Texans backfield in 2023, but an entirely new coaching staff and Pierce's 4th-round draft capital suggest that his undisputed workhorse role could change. Devin Singletary signed a one-year deal worth $3.75 million with the Texans, presumably to fill the role of Pierce's primary backup. Singletary totaled just nine more carries than James Cook from Weeks 13-Week 20 but ended the year 10th in PFF rushing grade (two spots ahead of Pierce).
Overall, Singletary probably won't unseat Pierce as the team's No. 1 rusher, but he poses a much bigger threat to Pierce's workload than JAGs like Rex Burkhead, Mike Boone, and Dare Ogunbowale. His PFF pass-blocking grade (73.2, 8th) might get him usage on passing downs as Pierce struggled in this capacity as a rookie (32.3, 52nd). Although it does work in Pierce's favor that Singletary has never flourished as an actual receiver, giving Pierce the slight edge on attaining a full three-down workload if he can shore up his pass protection in Year 2. Singletary's addition shouldn't completely change the way you view Pierce as it was highly unlikely the team would add zero running backs between now and the start of the season. He's not the worst running back they could have added, but he's hardly a reason to fully fade Pierce for fear that Singletary will carve out a massive role on offense. |
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48.
Jameson Williams
WR - DET
Don't give up the faith. Jameson Williams is an extremely talented wide receiver entering his sophomore season with a mountain of upside. Williams was placed in bubble wrap in 2022 by the Detroit Lions, who valued being careful with their blazing-fast rookie coming off a major injury (ACL tear). Assuming Williams is good to go for 2023, he's still the same player that ranked 13th in yards per route run among all FBS wide receivers in 2021 (minimum 50 targets). With D.J. Chark only on a one-year deal and T.J. Hockenson gone, Williams has a clear path to immediate volume alongside Amon-Ra St. Brown in the Lions' passing attack. Williams is a WR3/4 that could crush his ADP in 2023.
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49.
Keenan Allen
WR - LAC
When Keenan Allen was healthy, he looked like the player we have loved for many seasons in fantasy. He was limited to ten games played. In Weeks 11-18, Allen was the WR4 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 26.5% target share (15th) and a 34.9% air yard share (19th) with 2.24 yards per route run (18th, minimum 25 targets). Overall Allen posted his highest yards per route run since 2018 (2.32), so there are reasons to be optimistic despite his advancing age (30) that he still has 1-2 more top 24 seasons left in him. Allen should be a volume hog again in 2023.
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50.
Terry McLaurin
WR - WAS
Terry McLaurin's 2022 season was a tale of two halves. With Carson Wentz under center, McLaurin's role withered, as he had a 16.3% target share, a 26.4% air yard share, and 1.52 yards per route run. McLaurin's season would have been sunk if Wentz had kept ignoring him all season. Once Wentz was sidelined by injury, McLaurin exploded with Taylor Heinicke under center. With Heinicke, McLaurin had a 29.8% target share, a 44% air yard share, and 2.73 yards per route run (28% target per route run rate). McLaurin's skills haven't diminished one bit. The problem has been the quarterbacks tossing him the ball. At the moment, Washington is entertaining the Sam Howell experience under center in 2023 (if could easily be Jacoby Brissett). In Week 18, McLaurin saw a 33% target share from Howell, so if we are to take anything away from that one game sample, it's that Howell knows where his bread is buttered. McLaurin is a volume-based WR2.
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51.
Kyle Pitts
TE - ATL
After becoming the first tight end in 50 seasons to have 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie, Kyle Pitts had a bitterly disappointing sophomore season, finishing with 28 catches for 356 yards and two touchdowns and missing the last six games of the season with a torn MCL. The 22-year-old Pitts is immensely talented and figures to be a top fantasy TE for many years to come. But can Pitts be a prolific fantasy scorer in 2023 with run-loving head coach Arthur Smith in charge of the Falcons' offense and the Atlanta QB situation unsettled? Pitts will be a high-risk, high-reward fantasy option for 2023, but at least he'll be cheaper in this year's drafts than he was in 2022.
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52.
Mike Williams
WR - LAC
At this juncture of his career, we should finally conclude that Mike Williams cannot play a full season of games healthy. He was limited to 13 games played this past season, with some being less than full health. With Williams entering his age 29 season, those health worries aren't likely to resolve. He was still immensely productive as the WR20 in fantasy points per game when he was on the field. Williams was 42nd in target share (18.2%), 21st in air-yard share (31.1%), and 25th in receiving yards (895). He was also 20th in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum 50 targets per PFF). Williams should not be counted on as your WR2 in team builds, but as a WR3, he possesses weekly difference-maker potential when he's on the field.
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53.
Joe Burrow
QB - CIN
Brimming with swag and surrounded by ample pass-catching weaponry, Joe Burrow has firmly established himself as a premium fantasy quarterback. Burrow finished QB4 in fantasy scoring last season after throwing a career-high 35 TD passes. Over the last two years, Burrow has completed 69.3% of his throws, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. He added some value with his legs in 2022, running for five touchdowns. Burrow gets to throw to the fabulous WR duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and the Bengals have made significant investments in their offensive line. Burrow will be a consensus top-five QB in 2023 fantasy drafts.
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54.
Tyler Allgeier
RB - ATL
Tyler Allgeier enjoyed an extremely successful rookie season, finishing the year as PFF's No.1-graded rookie running back (86.7) ahead of stars like Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall. That accomplishment puts Allgeier into an elite company with RBs such as Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara and Rhamondre Stevenson - all who were top-8 fantasy RBs in their second seasons after taking home the crown as PFF's highest-graded rookie RB in their first years. Allgeier's strong finish was the driving force behind his final standing - 6th among all RBs in rushing EPA - as the team unleashed him from Week 13 onward. He was the RB11 in half-point scoring points per game averaging 17.8 carries and 96 rushing yards per game. Allgeier out-touched 32-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson 95 to 57 over the last 5 games. Entering Year 2, Allgeier should be the favorite to lead the Falcons' backfield.
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55.
Dallas Goedert
TE - PHI
Over the last two years, Dallas Goedert has averaged 56.7 yards per game and a wildly efficient 10.6 yards per target. He finished fifth in fantasy points per game in 2022, missing five late-season games with a shoulder injury. The athletic Goedert is a playmaking tight end who's averaged 13.8 yards per catch over the last two years. His target upside may be limited, however, since the Eagles were the fourth run-heaviest team in the league last season, and since Goedert has to share targets with WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Goedert hasn't scored more than five touchdowns in any of his five NFL seasons.
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56.
D'Andre Swift
RB - DET
2022 was another year of ultimate teasing by D'Andre Swift. The Lions running back came out of the gates red hot, but got hurt. And when he returned, the Lions refused to give him the featured role in the backfield, opting to use Jamaal Williams as their goal-line battering ram instead. Swift was still uber-efficient on a per-touch basis - fourth in fantasy points per touch, third in yards per carry, 23rd in points per game and 19th in yards after contact per attempt - but the lack of touchdowns and overall touches was soul-crushing. Swift seemed to never be 100% healthy at any point during the year, which likely influenced his reduced role. With a full bill of health heading into 2023, Swift can still be productive in a potential top-10 offense. But his true fantasy ceiling will be limited with him taking a backseat at the goal line to newly-acquired running back David Montgomery. The former Bear signed a 3-year deal worth $18 million ($11 million guaranteed) with the Detroit Lions, setting him up to be the new Jamaal Williams on the field for the foreseeable future. A similar red-zone role will lead to more scoring for Montgomery which will no doubt fuel another season of solid fantasy production at a relatively cheap price tag. Williams' 262 carries (6th), 16.1 touches per game (higher than Swift's 10.3) and his newly signed contract suggest the team will be featuring plenty of Montgomery at Swift's expense. Swift is entering free agency in 2024, and it's pretty clear up to this point that they don't view him as a feature back or as a piece in their long-term plans. Wouldn't be shocked to see him get traded. The Lions also re-signed Craig Reynolds.
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57.
Jerry Jeudy
WR - DEN
Jerry Jeudy was able to weather the Russell Wilson stink better than Courtland Sutton in 2022. Sutton dealt with a hamstring strain down the stretch and a grossly ineffective Wilson when he decided to chuck it deep. Jeudy parlayed his 20.8% target share (35th) into a WR19 finish and a 16th ranking in yards per route run. Jeudy's lower aDOT (11.8, 40th) helped shield Jeudy from the atrocious Wilson deep ball. Jeudy was 11th in open rate (per ESPN analytics). Jeudy is a talented player who still has untapped potential in the NFL. He's best viewed as an upside WR3 for 2023.
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58.
Justin Fields
QB - CHI
Justin Fields was electric as a runner in 2022. If he can significantly boost his passing numbers in 2023, look out. Fields ran for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns last season, averaging a league-high 7.1 yards per carry. He ran for 178 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins in Week 9, breaking the single-game rushing record for a quarterback -- then ran for 147 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions the following week. But Fields averaged 149.5 passing yards per game and topped the 200-yard mark only twice in 2022. In his defense, Fields was saddled by a mediocre offensive line and arguably the worst WR group in the league. The Bears have already traded for WR D.J. Moore and figure to bolster their offensive line in the NFL Draft, giving Fields a chance to make the same sort of quantum leap that Jalen Hurts made in 2022.
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59.
David Montgomery
RB - DET
David Montgomery signed a 3-year deal worth $18 million ($11 million guaranteed) with the Detroit Lions, setting him up to be the new Jamaal Williams on the field for the foreseeable future. In Montgomery's 15 healthy games played last season, he averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game as the RB26. But in 11 games, he played alongside a healthy Khalil Herbert, Montgomery saw an even bigger decline in production averaging 9.2 fantasy points (RB35), 13 carries, and 48 rushing yards per game. Monty's rushing EPA of -15.3 ranked 32nd, while Herbert's 1.17 rushing EPA ranked 12th.
Even so, it's hard to envision Montgomery as anything less than a fantasy RB2, with the highly-coveted goal-line role likely his to lose on his new team. Keep in mind that last season, Williams carried the ball a league-high 45 times inside the 10-yard line. Williams would finish the year with a league-high 17 rushing TDs; not too far off his 16.4 expected touchdowns. The scoring production fueled an RB12 finish for Williams. A similar red-zone role will lead to more scoring for Montgomery which will no doubt supply another season of solid fantasy production at a relatively cheap price tag. Williams' 262 carries (6th), 16.1 touches per game (higher than Swift's 10.3) and his newly signed contract suggest the team will be featuring plenty of Montgomery (RB27 ADP) at Swift's expense (RB19 ADP). |
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60.
Tyler Lockett
WR - SEA
Tyler Lockett kept trucking along in his age-30 season last year, finishing with another stellar stat line. He was the WR16 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 22.8% target share (26th) and 30.5% air yard share (24th). Lockett showed little signs of slowing down, ranking 25th in PFF receiving grade and 24th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets per PFF). He was also second in open rate behind only Diontae Johnson (per ESPN analytics). Lockett should have at least one more WR2 season left in the tank for 2023.
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61.
Lamar Jackson
QB - BAL
Drafters might get a slight discount on Lamar Jackson this year after a second consecutive season in which injuries limited him to 12 games. In 2021, it was bone bruise in his ankle that prematurely ended Jackson's season. In 2022, it was a sprained PCL in his knee. Jackson has been a lethal running threat throughout his career, averaging 63.4 rushing yards per game over his five NFL seasons. The Ravens' below-average WR room is a work in progress, and Jackson will be playing for a new offensive coordinator after the Ravens parted ways with Greg Roman. Even with the uncertainty and the recent injuries, Jackson is still an upper-echelon fantasy quarterback capable of a QB1 finish.
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62.
Darren Waller
TE - NYG
After putting together back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2019 and 2020, Darren Waller has missed 14 games due to injury over the last two years. In 2021, a knee injury forced Waller to miss five late-season games. In 2022, a hamstring injury wiped out nearly half of his season. Now with the Giants, Waller could see a lot of targets for a team short on talent and size at the WR position. Waller has been reasonably productive when healthy the last two seasons, but he now has to be considered at least a mild health risk, and the big tight end will turn 31 in September.
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63.
Isiah Pacheco
RB - KC
Isiah Pacheco's outstanding season as a 2022 7th-round pick should not be understated. From Week 10 through Week 17 (when Pacheco cemented himself as the team's starter), the former Rutgers running back was the RB21 in points per game and ranked sixth in total rushing yards. Both he and Jerick McKinnon were top-21 scoring RBs over this stretch, but Pacheco kicked his performance into high gear as the Chiefs made their postseason run. He averaged 13 touches for 65 rushing yards to McKinnon's seven touches per game. The aggressive runner capped off his rookie campaign with an impressive Super Bowl outing (15-76-1) that helped clinch victory for Kansas City. Even as a 7th-round pick, Pacheco should be viewed as the early-down starter for KC as he heads into Year 2, with room for his role to grow should he see his pass-game usage expanded. His six-catch game versus the Bengals in the conference championship suggests a boosted receiving role is firmly in his range of outcomes.
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64.
DeAndre Hopkins
WR - ARI
DeAndre Hopkins missed the first six games of the season due to suspension and the final two weeks with a knee sprain, but when he was on the field, he proved he hadn't hit the age cliff yet. Hopkins is entering his age-31 season and could be playing for a new team in 2023, but there's reason to think he still has at least one top-flight season left. Hopkins was the WR9 in fantasy points per game last season, drawing a 29.4% target share (fourth-best) and 43.5% air-yard share (second-best). Hopkins can still draw volume with the best of them, but his efficiency did tick down a bit as he was 17th in yards per route run and 35th in open rate (tied with Christian Kirk, per ESPN analytics). Hopkins' 2023 prospects are muddied until we know his home for the upcoming season, but expecting WR2 production out of him isn't insane.
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65.
Justin Herbert
QB - LAC
Justin Herbert has abundant arm talent and the mobility to add rushing value, so fantasy managers were expecting him to take another step forward last season in his third year as a starter. Instead, Herbert took a step backward, with significant declines in his yardage per game, yardage per attempt and touchdown rate. He ran for only 147 yards and didn't have a single TD run. In Herbert's defense, he gutted it out through a rib cartilage fracture sustained in an early-season Thursday-night game vs. the Chiefs, and Herbert's top two receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, both missed time with injuries. The Chargers have jettisoned oft-criticized offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, replacing him with Kellen Moore. Herbert remains one of the toolsiest quarterbacks in the league and will likely produce much-improved fantasy numbers in 2023.
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66.
Drake London
WR - ATL
Drake London excelled in his rookie season, although fantasy gamers were not elated with his WR43 finish. If we look deeper than the raw counting stats, London's future is incredibly bright. If earning targets is a skill (it is), then London proved to be among the league's elite. He ranked 22nd in raw target volume last year (117) with the fifth-highest target share (29.4%) and second-highest target per route run rate (32.4%) among wide receivers. London also blazed in efficiency stats ranking 16th in open rate (per ESPN analytics), tenth in PFF receiving grade, and 14th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets). London gave a glimpse into his 2023 upside down the stretch last season. In Weeks 13-18, he was the WR20 in fantasy, even though he failed to score a touchdown in this span. London is a target vacuuming WR2 with WR1 upside in 2023.
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67.
James Conner
RB - ARI
When James Conner was healthy in 2022, it was hard to argue with his elite production and role in the Arizona Cardinals offense. He was the RB4 overall in his last eight games, averaging 17 fantasy points per game (RB6, RB10 in expected points per game) while playing over 90% of his team's snaps in five contests. No other Cardinals running back was able to threaten Conner's volume, which led to him to an absurd workload. If Arizona invests in the No. 2 running back position this offseason we could easily see Conner's workload get reduced in some capacity. Arizona will have a new head coach, who could bring a more RBBC approach to the offense. There's also Conner's durability issues that came to fruition that fantasy managers need to be aware of. He missed four games entirely and left three other games early because of injuries. Conner is entering his age-28 season.
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68.
Christian Kirk
WR - JAC
Christian Kirk set career highs across the board in 2022 as the WR18 in fantasy points per game. He gobbled up a 23.2% target share (24th) with the 15th-best raw target volume among wide receivers. Kirk also ranked 12th in deep targets, fifth in red-zone looks, and 22nd in yards per route run. Kirk was 21st in PFF slot receiving grade with 76.7% of his target volume coming via the slot (minimum 15 slot targets). With Calvin Ridley entering the target pecking order conversation in Jacksonville, Kirk profiles as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.
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69.
Khalil Herbert
RB - CHI
Khalil Herbert was better than David Montgomery in nearly every single rushing metric in 2022. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry to Montgomery's flat 4.0 yards per carry average. Herbert rushed for just 70 fewer yards on 72 fewer carries. Monty's rushing EPA of -15.3 ranked 32nd while Herbert's 1.17 rushing EPA ranked 12th. Had Herbert not gotten hurt in Week 10 versus the Detroit Lions, there was a non-zero chance he would have completely usurped Montgomery as the team's lead back.
In the two games that Herbert led the backfield due to a Montgomery injury, the Bears second-year rusher averaged 117 rushing yards and 19.5 carries. Herbert also has just had as many career games (4) as Montgomery with at least 90 rushing yards. With Monty leaving in free agency, the rebuilding Bears let him walk and added D'Onta Foreman to join the backfield. Foreman's flashes of high-end early-down starting potential for two straight seasons are going to earn him opportunities in Chicago. Even though Herbert has shown out on limited opportunities, it's hard to envision anything but another usage split between Herbert and Foreman similar to the split between Herbert and Montgomery last season. Foreman and Herbert earned nearly identical rushing EPA per attempt last year (inside the top 15). Fantasy managers might be best off taking the cheaper of the two in drafts because there may not be a true No. 1 rusher in the Windy City unless there's an injury. If the Bears are as run-heavy as they were last season, there's a chance that both can return value, but keep in mind that Justin Fields' own rushing will take away volume chances from both backs. |
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70.
Mike Evans
WR - TB
Did Mike Evans fall off the age cliff last year or, at the very least, begin his descent? It does appear that way on paper. Evans finished 17th in raw target volume but 37th in target share (19.7%). He was 11th in air yard share (35.4%), third in deep targets, and 22nd in red zone targets. All these volume metrics are nice, but they will all take a hit with Tom Brady gone. His efficiency metrics are the real tale of the tape, as he was 33rd in yards per route run, 35th in route win rate, and 47th in open rate (per ESPN analytics). With declining metrics and an uncertain quarterback situation in Tampa Bay, Evans is a WR3.
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71.
Brandon Aiyuk
WR - SF
Brandon Aiyuk set career highs across the board in 2022 in targets (113), receiving yards (1,015), and receiving touchdowns (eight) as the WR23 in fantasy. Aiyuk was 19th in PFF receiving grade, 27th in yards per route run, and 23rd in YAC per reception (minimum 50 targets per PFF). Aiyuk was also eighth in open rate, tied with Davante Adams (per ESPN analytics). Aiyuk ran hot with touchdowns (11th among wide receivers) despite ranking only 36th in deep targets and 30th in red zone targets. While it's tough to project him to eclipse last season's target mark in the 49ers' run-first offense, if Aiyuk's high-value usage creeps up in 2023, he will improve upon last year's fantasy finish. Aiyuk is a WR2.
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72.
Chris Godwin
WR - TB
Chris Godwin had a productive 2022 in the shadow of his late-season 2021 ACL/MCL tear. Godwin was the WR15 in fantasy points per game as the Buccaneers' insane passing volume elevated him. Godwin was 31st in target share (21.8%) and tenth in raw target volume (142) while only playing 15 games. The volume covered up his efficiency ugliness in 2022. He was neutered into being a low aDOT (5.6, 99th) receiver who also ranked 38th in yards per route run. Godwin was 96th in deep targets and 18th in red zone targets. He was 68th among 82 qualifying wide receivers in open rate (per ESPN analytics). Entering his age 27 season with uncertainty at quarterback (Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield...WOOF!) and in the passing volume department, Godwin is a WR3.
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73.
Brian Robinson Jr.
RB - WAS
Brian Robinson Jr. took little time getting adjusted to NFL bellcow duties after missing the first four games of his NFL career after suffering gunshot wounds in August. From Week 6 onward, B-Rob averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game (RB34). But the points per game hardly depict Robinson's rookie campaign because he was getting fed with volume. He ranked fourth in carries (17.8 per game) and averaged over 70 rushing yards per game as PFF's ninth-highest-graded running back (82.1). The Commanders running back's lack of receiving usage - just 9 catches for 60 yards on a 6% target share - and lack of TDs was the reason for his underwhelming fantasy box scores. And although his receiving usage likely won't change too dramatically with Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic back under contract in 2023, I'd fully expect him to experience positive TD regression. Robinson finishes the fantasy regular season 13th in carries, but with just two rushing TDs. His 14 carries from inside the 10-yard line were the most of any player to score fewer than three rushing TDs.
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74.
Trevor Lawrence
QB - JAC
After a lost 2021 season under former Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer, the talented Trevor Lawrence began to blossom in 2022 under the tutelage of first-year Jags HC Doug Pederson. From 2021 to 2022, Lawrence improved his completion percentage from 59.6% to 66.3%, boosted his YPA from 5.2 to 7.3, and upped his TD rate from 2.0% to 4.3%. Also a willing and able runner, Lawrence had five TD runs last season. Lawrence finished QB8 in fantasy scoring in 2022, and the former No. 1 draft pick is still ascending. Invest with confidence.
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75.
Rashod Bateman
WR - BAL
Rashod Bateman looked like a receiver on his way to a breakout campaign before his season was derailed by a foot sprain in Week 4 and ultimately ended in Week 8 with a LisFranc injury. In Weeks 1-3, he was the WR34 in fantasy points per game with an 18.8% target share, a 30.3% air yard share, and 3.14 yards per route run. Bateman was also only a 72.7% route per dropback player in that stretch. Expect his raw target volume to climb next year if he is a full-time receiver. Bateman's talent is real, but he needs his health to comply and for Baltimore to figure out their quarterback situation for 2023. Bateman is a WR3 that could explode in 2023 if the stars align.
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76.
Michael Pittman Jr.
WR - IND
Michael Pittman failed to build upon his breakout 2021 season last year as he finished as the WR21 in fantasy points per game (2021 WR22), but there's still reason to be optimistic about Pittman. Pittman was 17th in target share (25.6%) and nearly logged one of the quietest 100 reception seasons (99 receptions) in recent memory. He was 18th in red zone targets, first in total route wins, and third in route win rate, so the talent is still there for Pittman to finish with an even better 2023 season. The worry remains, though, regarding the quarterback situation for next season. If the Colts can find improved quarterback play, Pittman could easily be a WR2 next season, but for now, he's a WR3 with upside.
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77.
Jahan Dotson
WR - WAS
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78.
Alvin Kamara
RB - NO
Alvin Kamara had a year to forget in 2022 with QB/TE Taysom Hill seeing an increased role as a backfield rusher in the Saints offense. Hill earned more touches inside the 10-yard line (8 vs. 12) which limited Kamara to just two rushing TDs. AK41's receiving usage also fell off a cliff toward the end of the year. From Weeks 13-18, Kamara never caught more than two passes. His target share fell from 22% to 11%. The days of him being a game-breaker as a receiver seem to be long gone as he has seen his pass-catching numbers fall off drastically compared to his first four years in the NFL when he was averaging nearly 90 receptions per year. The overall lack of TDs and receiving was heightened more so when Kamara's poor rushing efficiency failed to make up for his loss in other production. The Saints running back ended the year second-worst in the rushing EPA (-41). Before the schedule eased up over the last four games, Kamara had just two games with 65 rushing yards. He still managed to finish as the RB15 in points per game (12.8), which might need to be his new fantasy expectation when he plays in 2023. Because there are serious question marks about Kamara's availability in regards to a potential suspension on events from last year's Pro Bowl. The general ambiguity will make him very risky to draft in the early rounds.
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79.
Javonte Williams
RB - DEN
Javonte Williams was limited to just 4 games in his second year after tearing his ACL, LCL and PCL in Week 4 against the Raiders. The injury may end up being a blessing in disguise as Williams may have struggled mightily in the Denver Broncos atrocious offense. Even before his injury, Williams ranked as the RB35 in points per game (9.0) despite ranking as the fantasy RB12 in expected points per game. And Williams' underlying metrics were still elite, as his 116.3 PFF elusive rating ranked first among all RBs with at least 45 carries. Considering the time frame of Williams' injury, the expectation should be that he is back by the start of the year, but the severity/complexity of his knee injury is eerily similar to J.K. Dobbins from the past year. Williams could easily come out of the gates sluggish, and the moves that Broncos have made this offseason reflect that narrative. They've added Samaje Perine and Tony Jones Jr. to the backfield.
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80.
AJ Dillon
RB - GB
Drafters were expecting A.J. Dillon to carve out a formidable role in the Packers backfield in 2022, but he was a complete afterthough for the majority of the season. His highly-touted "red-zone role" resulted in one touchdown (Week 1) in the first 11 weeks in a struggling Green Bay offense. Dillon eventually got more involved in the second half of the season, especially as a red-zone threat. From Week 9 onward, Dillon out-carried teammate Aaron Jones inside the 10-yard line 14 to 5 while splitting snaps exactly 50/50. And they scored the same amount of points total from Week 11 through Week 17, with Dillion scoring six rushing TDs. If Dillon's goal-line usage carries over from the tail-end of the 2022 season, that would significantly hinder Jones' fantasy upside while stabilizing Dillon's fantasy value. The bruising running back finished fifth in PFF rushing grade last season and will hit free agency at the end of the 2023 season. He also flashed top-tier handcuff upside when Jones got banged up versus the Bears in Week 13. Dillon tied a season-high with 18 carries for 93 yards and one touchdown to go along with three catches for 26 yards.
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81.
George Pickens
WR - PIT
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82.
Dak Prescott
QB - DAL
This seems like a crossroads year for Dak Prescott, who's coming off a forgettable 2022 campaign. Prescott finished as the QB2 in 2019, giving us a glimpse of what his fantasy ceiling looks like. But has missed significant time with injuries in two of the last three years, and his passing efficiency numbers are trending in the wrong direction. Prescott threw an NFL-high 15 interceptions in 2022. His 7.3 YPA was his lowest since 2017. After averaging 278.1 passing yards per game in 2021, Prescott averaged 238.3 passing yards per game in 2022. He ran for six touchdowns in each of his first three seasons but has only eight TD runs over the last four years. Consider Prescott a low-end QB1, stationed somewhere between the elite fantasy quarterbacks and the streamer class.
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83.
Treylon Burks
WR - TEN
Treylon Burks is staring down a sophomore season with tons of opportunities at his disposal to put his disappointing rookie season in the past. Burks saw a 17.6% target share last season while ranking 35th in air-yard share and 32nd in yards per route run. While none of these numbers will inspire confidence in Burks entering year two, his 17th-ranked route win rate and 24th-ranked open rate (tied with Marquise Brown, per ESPN analytics) should. Burks enters the offseason with only 32-year-old Robert Woods, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and Chigoziem Okonkwo to compete for targets in 2023. Burks falls in the WR3/4 bucket, but he could easily crush that expectation.
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84.
Bijan Robinson
RB - FA
Texas running back Bijan Robinson is the consensus No. 1 RB across all draft publications. B-Rob finished the 2022 season as PFF's second-highest-graded rusher in the FBS, tallying 18 rushing TDs and 1,575 rushing yards en route to a 37% dominator rating in his final year as a Longhorn. He forced 104 missed tackles (40% broken tackle rate) which have shown to be super predictive of success rushing at the NFL level. And among last year's class, only Breece Hall posted a higher dominator rating (40%). Factor in that Robinson also finished 3rd among RBs in yards per catch (16.5) with zero drops and there's no question as to why he's the 1.01 already in rookie drafts. At 5-foot-11 and 215 pounds, Robinson has the requisite size and all the tools to be a three-down running back who never leaves the field.
During NFL Combine testing, Robinson ran a 4.46 40-yard dash. He also jumped 37" in the vertical (81st percentile) and 124" in the broad jump (86th percentile). Per PlayerProfiler.com that awarded B-Rob an 89th percentile speed score. His 1.52 10-yard split nearly matched track star Devon Achane (1.51) and actually equaled Jamyr Gibbs (1.52). |
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85.
Deshaun Watson
QB - CLE
The 2022 version of Deshaun Watson was a far cry from the early-career Watson who finished top five in QB fantasy scoring in each of his first three seasons as a starter. Amid allegations of sexual assault, Watson didn't play in 2021 and served an 11-game suspension in 2022 before making a Week 13 debut for the Browns against his old team, the Texans. Watson was predictably rusty, producing numbers befitting a fantasy backup over a small sample size. It's reasonable to assume that Watson will look at least a little more like the dynamic dual-threat QB he used to be in 2023, but it would be a leap of faith to assume that he'll be as effective as he was from 2018 to 2020.
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86.
James Cook
RB - BUF
James Cook was used in a limited fashion during his rookie season, topping out at just a 56% snap share in Week 18 versus the Patriots. However, it should be noted that Cook forced a 60-40 split from Week 13 onward with veteran Devin Singletary. The first-year rusher averaged a 40% snap share over the team's final seven games, matching Singletary point-for-point (RB25 in points per game). Cook was also the superior rusher in the season's totality capping off his year by averaging 5.3 yards per carry (5th). He earned PFF's No. 1 ranking in breakaway run rate (44%). The spurts of explosiveness and receiving ability will work in Cook's favor as he enters Year 2 with the potential to emerge as Buffalo's Day 1 starter, with Damien Harris as his main competition.
The Harris signing signifies that the second-year pro is locked-in to the elite pass-catching role vacated in the backfield. In 2022, Singletary finished third among all running backs in route participation (57%). Considering Cook's 27% target rate per route run - equal or better than Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2022, 5th among all RBs with at least 30 targets - I fully expect him to take on a much larger role as a receiver in a Bills passing attack that is shrouded with question marks behind Stefon Diggs. |
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87.
Gabe Davis
WR - BUF
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88.
Pat Freiermuth
TE - PIT
After a promising rookie season in which he had 60 catches for 497 yards and seven touchdowns, Pat Freiermuth scored only two TDs in 2022. But Freiermuth drew 98 targets in his second season and finished with 63 catches for 732 yards. The former second-round draft pick from Penn State offers a solid fantasy floor as a key component of the Pittsburgh passing game.
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89.
Marquise Brown
WR - ARI
DeAndre Hopkins could be on the move this offseason which means Marquise Brown could revisit his 2022 early-season usage. In Weeks 1-6, he was the WR7 in fantasy as he saw elite alpha-level love. He had a 26% target share, a 40.5% air yard share, and 2.00 yards per route run. Brown proved up to the task of operating as Arizona's number one receiving option. He was 24th in open rate last year, immediately behind Jakobi Meyers (per ESPN analytics). Brown is a WR2 currently that could rise more once Hopkins is moved. Consider him a high-end number two option with the possibility of more in 2023.
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90.
Jamaal Williams
RB - NO
How does a running back finish as the RB12 while catching only 12 passes? Touchdowns. That's exactly how the season played out for Detroit Lions running back Jamaal Williams. He took on the role as the Lions' goal-line back, carrying the ball a league-high 41 times inside the 10-yard line for 13 rushing TDs. Williams would finish the year with a league-high 17 rushing TDs - not too far off his 16.4 expected touchdowns.
Touchdown regression pundits will shout to the heavens that Williams cannot duplicate his 2022 success and his new landing spot in New Orleans confirms this. He signed for 3 years, $12 million, $8 million guaranteed but will now compete for red-zone touches with both Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill. Kamara totaled just eight carries inside the 10-yard line last season with Hill chipping in 12. But a potential Kamara suspension would dramatically boost Williams' fantasy value as the Saints offense has never shied away from featuring the likes of Latavius Murray or Mark Ingram when AK41 has missed time in the past. |
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91.
Evan Engram
TE - JAC
Evan Engram had a terrific rookie season for the Giants in 2017, then spent the next four years failing to live up to expectations. He signed a one-year deal with the Jaguars in 2022 and thrived in his new environment, catching 73 passes for 766 yards and four touchdowns. Engram also had 7-93-1 in the Jaguars epic come-from-behind playoff win vs. the Chargers. Back with the Jags after being franchise-tagged, Engram will likely be drafted as a midrange TE1 this summer.
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92.
David Njoku
TE - CLE
David Njoku's first five seasons in Cleveland were a mixed bag, but the uber-athletic tight end had a strong 2022 campaign, with 58 catches for 628 yards and four touchdowns in 14 games. Njoku hauled in 72.5% of his targets and averaged 44.9 yards per game. Although he's been in the league since 2017, Njoku will only be entering his age-27 season, so he's squarely in the prime of his career. With his massive wingspan and above-average speed, Njoku might still be able to take up his game another notch.
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93.
Kirk Cousins
QB - MIN
Say what you will about Kirk Cousins' habit of underperforming in big games or his penchant for throwing short of the sticks in critical third- and fourth-down situations. That stuff might leave Vikings fans dismayed, but it's less concerning in the fantasy realm, where Cousins' yeat-to-year consistency makes him a stable and useful fantasy asset. Cousins has finished as a top-11 quarterback in each of the last three years. He finished QB7 in 2022, ranking fourth in passing yards (4,547) and tying for fifth in TD passes (29). If you miss out on the top quarterbacks, Cousins is a perfectly reasonable fallback option in the middle rounds of your draft.
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94.
Tua Tagovailoa
QB - MIA
Your willingness to draft Tua Tagovailoa in 2023 will likely depend on your tolerance for risk. Tua proved himself as a passer in 2022, leading all quarterbacks in passer rating (105.5), yards per attempt (8.9) and touchdown percentage (6.3%). But Tua has to be considered a concussion risk after a season in which he twice missed games due to brain injuries. He was knocked unconscious against the Bengals in Week 4 and didn't return until Week 7. He was also placed in the concussion protocol after a Week 16 game against the Packers and missed Miami's final two games. Were it not for concussion concerns. Tua would be drafted as a top-10 quarterback as a talented young passer in an explosive Dolphins offense that features two terrific WRs in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. But with the possibility that another concussion could put Tua out of action indefinitely, it seems more sensible to regard Tua as a high-end QB2.
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95.
Courtland Sutton
WR - DEN
Courtland Sutton is coming off a disappointing season, but when we peer at deeper efficiency metrics, it's easy to see the problem wasn't him. Sutton dipped to 50th in yards per route run and 65th in fantasy points per route run, while he saw a 23.1% target share (25th). This paints the picture that the blame rests upon Sutton's shoulders until we also see that he was 16th in total route wins and 12th in open rate (per ESPN analytics). Only 72.5% (71st) of his targets were catchable, and he ranked 42nd in target quality rating. With a new head wizard in Sean Payton directing this passing attack, there are reasons to buy in on a big Sutton bounceback in 2023. Sutton was 11th in deep targets and 22nd in red zone targets last year. Sutton is an upside WR3.
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96.
Kadarius Toney
WR - KC
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97.
Jakobi Meyers
WR - LV
Josh McDaniels took another step today in making the Raiders "Patriots west" as they inked Jakobi Meyers to a three-year deal. This is a welcome addition to a Raiders' wide receiver room that was looking thin outside of Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow (Mack Hollins is a FA). The dominoes might not be done falling, though, as this could also signal a Renfrow departure. Renfrow can be cut, and the Raiders can save 1.5 million against the cap. The likeliest outcome is that Renfrow remains in Vegas this year and is cut bait next year when the team can save 8.2 million against the cap next year by kicking him to the curb. The Raiders are surrounding their new starting quarterback with underneath weapons. Meyers will rotate slot work with Renfrow. Meyers played 69.5% from the slot last year (Renfrow 86.0%), drawing a 22.0% target share (29th), a 25.8% target per route run rate (22nd), and a 27.4% air yard share as the Patriots' number one option. He was 29th in PFF receiving grade and 23rd in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets per PFF). Meyers has been the WR29 and WR35 in fantasy points per game over the last two seasons. Meyers' signing could signal the Raiders' plan to deploy more 11 personnel this season after ranking 18th in the use of three-plus wide receiver sets last year. Meyers will compete with Hunter Renfrow for second in line at the target water fountain. Meyers is a low-ceiling WR3/4 that gets a small boost in PPR formats.
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98.
Diontae Johnson
WR - PIT
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99.
Rachaad White
RB - TB
Rachaad White saw his role grow during the second half of the season, forcing a timeshare with Leonard Fournette. From Weeks 10-17, White operated as the 1A in the Buccaneers' backfield averaging 11 fantasy points per game (RB26). He wasn't great as a rusher - four yards per carry, 66.4 PFF rushing grade - but no running back was particularly efficient behind Tampa's patchwork offensive line. The first-year rusher was still better than Fournette on the ground, as the veteran finished third-to-last in rushing EPA (-39.13). And there was no better display of White edging out Fournette on the field than in the first round of the NFL playoffs. Fournette carried the ball just 5 times for 11 yards while White started and rushed for 41 yards on 7 carries, adding 4-of-6 targets for 36 yards (56% snap share). White's superior season and proficiency as a receiver (50 receptions, 11th among all RBs) solidify him as the RB1 moving forward. Tampa Bay released Fournette and signed Chase Edmonds in free agency.
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100.
Rashaad Penny
RB - PHI
Rashaad Penny inked a one-year deal with the Eagles reportedly worth $1.35 million with $600,000 guaranteed and a max value of $2.1 million. It's not much but it puts him in a position to be the team's early-down lead back in full Miles Sanders fashion. In his five games played before his injury in 2022, Penny averaged over six yards per carry. His only game where he failed to surpass 54 yards on the ground was against the eventual number one run defensive unit: the San Francisco 49ers. The on-field production and talent have never been in question with Penny. It's just been the availability due to health that has been the big issue. Quarterback Jalen Hurts' presence at the goal line will obviously hinder Penny's TD potential to some extent, but make no mistake that Penny's explosive game means he can score beyond just the 5-yard line. Of his 14 career touchdowns, 11 have come on 10-yard-plus plays. Seven (50%) have been 30-plus plays from scrimmage.
Although it should be noted that the Eagles also re-signed Boston Scott, and Penny's deal is worth $1.35 million with $600,000 guaranteed - less than Scott's $2 million with $1.08 guaranteed. Interesting. |
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101.
Daniel Jones
QB - NYG
A mistake-prone turnover machine during his first three NFL seasons, Daniel Jones flourished in Year Four under first-year Giants head coach Brian Daboll, finishing QB9 in fantasy scoring. Jones ran for 708 yards and seven touchdowns in 2022. He averaged only 200.3 passing yards per game and threw 15 TD passes in 15 starts, but Jones didn't have much pass-catching talent at his disposal and could increase his passing output if he gets more weaponry. Jones figures to be a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2 in 2023 fantasy drafts.
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102.
Brandin Cooks
WR - DAL
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103.
Elijah Mitchell
RB - SF
Elijah Mitchell got hurt in Week 1 and the team traded for Christian McCaffrey by the time he was fully healthy enough to return to the field (Week 10). In his first game back, he rushed 18 times for 89 yards. He saw middling usage over the next two weeks - eight carries for 47 rushing yards per game - before getting hurt again. Mitchell's gone two straight seasons without being able to stay healthy - definitely a downside factor to being undersized running back in the Kyle Shanahan run scheme. But his efficient play at least solidified him as the primary handcuff to McCaffrey in 2023. He might see occasional spike weeks of production even while CMC is healthy (as he did at times in 2022) but I'd hardly project him for any consistent role as the No. 2 running back on the depth chart. Although it should be noted that No. 3 running back Jordan Mason graded out as PFF's second-highest graded rusher in 2022, and could potentially push Mitchell for the backup job. Mason's larger stature will make it easier for him to hold up over an 18-week season.
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104.
Geno Smith
QB - SEA
In his first two seasons in the league, Geno Smith threw 25 TD passes and 34 interceptions for the Jets, earning a reputation for being a second-round draft bust. Smith waited seven years to get another crack at being a full-time starter and thrived in that role with the Seahawks, throwing for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns, leading the NFL in completion percentage (69.8%) and winning the Comeback Player of the Year award. Smith finished QB5 in fantasy scoring in 2022, and though it wouldn't be wise to bet on a repeat, a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2 finish is a reasonable expectation.
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105.
Cole Kmet
TE - CHI
One of the few credible pass catchers for the Chicago Bears last season, Cole Kmet led the team in targets (69), catches (50), receiving yards (544) and TD catches (7). Kmet got off to a s slow start in 2022, catching five passes for 56 yards over his first four games, but still finished TE8 in PPR fantasy scoring. If Bears QB Justin Fields shows improvement as a passer in 2023, Kmet could take another step up in his age-24 season, though the Bears' addition of WR D.J. Moore casts a shadow over Kmet's target outlook.
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106.
Jared Goff
QB - DET
After disappointing seasons with the Rams in 2019 and 2020, then a lackluster first season with the Lions in 2021, Jared Goff turned in a solid year for Detroit in 2022, throwing for 4,438 yards and 29 touchdowns, good for a QB10 finish in fantasy scoring. Goff thrived under first-year Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who'll announced that he'll be back as Detroit's OC after getting some head-coach buzz at the end of the regular season. Goff will also have some exciting pass catchers to work with in WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams and RB D'Andre Swift.
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107.
Ezekiel Elliott
RB - FA
I was vehemently against drafting Ezekiel Elliott across all formats in 2022. I was convinced that his best days were behind him and that Tony Pollard was the clear-cut better running back in the Dallas backfield. And I felt like the stance was mostly correct. Zeke finished as RB19 versus Pollard's RB7 status. Elliott posted career lows in yards per carry (3.7), receptions and targets. But he was an absolute TD monster, finishing second in expected touchdowns with 12 real rushing scores. Only Joe Mixon and Jamaal Williams totaled more carries inside the 10-yard line than Elliott. And ultimately the scoring was what made Zeke a usable fantasy asset especially after he returned from injury. He scored eight touchdowns from Weeks 11-17. For him to sustain any fantasy value in 2023 and beyond, Elliott will need to carve out a role as a team's primary red-zone back.
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108.
D'Onta Foreman
RB - CHI
D'Onta Foreman inked a one-year deal worth $3 million with the Chicago Bears to replace David Montgomery in the Bears backfield alongside Khalil Herbert and Travis Homer. Per Aaron Wilson, Foreman also had interest from the Bills, Panthers, and Giants but chose to go with the Bears.
The interest doesn't come as a surprise after Foreman's breakout play in 2022. From Week 7 on, Foreman was the RB21 in fantasy scoring and RB22 in fantasy points per game. He ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing yards (852) over that span. But his path to back-end RB2 status was not consistent whatsoever. Foreman rushed for more than 110 yards in half of his last 10 games while finishing with fewer than 40 rushing yards in four of the others. His weekly half-point PPR fantasy finishes over those last 10 games were RB13, RB5, RB42, RB9, RB48, RB27, RB27, RB70, RB3, and RB53. Foreman was also a zero in the passing game, with just five receptions as the team's starter. Even so, Foreman's flashes of high-end early-down starting potential for two straight seasons are going to earn him opportunities in Chicago. Even though Khalil Herbert has shown out on limited opportunities, it's hard to envision anything but another usage split between Herbert and Foreman similar to the split between Herbert and Montgomery last season. |
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109.
Russell Wilson
QB - DEN
Plagued by subpar QB play for years, the Broncos viewed Russell Wilson as a potential savior and gave up a bevy of draft capital to acquire him. Wilson's first year in Denver was bitterly disappointing, as he turned in the worst season of his 11-year career, with career lows in completion percentage (60.5%), passer rating (84.4) and touchdown passes (16), and a career high in sacks (55). Once a dangerous runner, Wilson doesn't run as much these days, and he doesn't escape pressure as easily. It's possible that this accomplished passer has a bounce-back season in 2023 under the tutelage of Sean Payton, but we can't assume that the 34-year-old Wilson will return to something close to vintage form. Approach with caution.
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110.
Michael Thomas
WR - NO
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111.
Darnell Mooney
WR - CHI
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112.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR - NE
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113.
Aaron Rodgers
QB - GB
The 39-year-old Rodgers still makes some dazzling throws, but he experienced some statistical slippage in 2022. He threw only 26 TD passes, and his 12 interceptions were the most he'd thrown in a season since 2008. He averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt, the second-lowest mark of his 15 years as a starter. Rodgers' days as a QB1 may be over. He finished QB13 in fantasy scoring last season, but he was QB21 in fantasy points per game among QBs who played at least 10 games. Don't make the mistake of buying Rodgers based solely on the name brand. It's possible a change of venue will rekindle interest in Favre, but the Jets' defense is one of the best in the league, so Rodgers isn't going to be involved in a lot of shootouts and may end up being a glorified game manager in 2023.
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114.
Dalton Schultz
TE - HOU
Dalton Schultz signed a one-year deal with the Texans, where he should have ample target opportunity but figures to be paired with a rookie QB. Schultz was TE3 in fantasy scoring in 2021, catching 78 passes for 808 yards and eight touchdowns. But his production tapered off in 2022. He finished with 57-577-5 and dealt with an early-season knee injury that cost him a pair of games. Schultz isn't particularly athletic, and he's averaged just 6.5 yards per target last season, suggesting that his 2021 numbers aren't likely to be repeated.
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115.
Dawson Knox
TE - BUF
After scoring nine touchdowns in 2021, Dawson Knox had only two touchdowns in the Bills' first 12 games of 2022. But Knox got hot down the stretch, scoring a touchdown in each of Buffalo's last four regular-season games. Knox has had more than 500 receiving yards in each of the last two seasons, and he's averaged a respectable 8.1 yards per target over that span. The 26-year-old Knox might never be featured in the Bills' passing game, but playing with QB Josh Allen is unquestionably a boon to Knox's fantasy value.
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116.
Damien Harris
RB - BUF
The Buffalo Bills signed Damien Harris (RB42 ADP) to a one-year contract to fill the void left by Devin Singletary. Bills general manager Brandon Beane stated earlier this offseason that the team wanted to add another back with more "size" to compliment smaller running backs like James Cook and Nyheim Hines. Harris, at 216 pounds, fits the mold of the bigger back that Beane was after, so it's not a shock to see this deal completed.
Last season, the former Patriots running back was plagued by injuries, playing in just 11 contests - two of which he left early. And in his nine healthy games, Harris averaged just 8.8 fantasy points, 11 carries, and 49 rushing yards per game. He took a major backseat to the surging Rhamondre Stevenson, who operated as the RB1 in the backfield for the majority of the season. Now with Buffalo, Harris' best fantasy prospects are for him to land the Bills' red-zone back role. He scored just as many times as Stevenson from inside the ten-yard line last season (thrice) despite being out-carried in that area of the field 19 to six. In 2022, former Bills RB Devin Singletary totaled just four rushing TDs inside the 10-yard on 16 carries. QB Josh Allen is frequently deployed as a goal-line rusher which might limit Harris' touchdown totals in 2023. However, we have seen quarterbacks run less at the goal line as they get older, so there's still a chance that Harris flirts with double-digit scores should his arrival mean the team leans on him more as their preferred rusher near the pylon to protect their franchise quarterback in the long term. |
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117.
Antonio Gibson
RB - WAS
Antonio Gibson's production fell off substantially in 2022 as he split work in the Commanders' backfield with rookie Brian Robinson Jr. In Gibson's last nine healthy games played - he missed the end of the year with a foot injury that required surgery - he and Robinson operated as fantasy RB3s as the RB34 and RB30 respectively in points per game. AG was still the much more involved receiver with an impressive 14% target share - three catches, four targets and 22 receiving yards per game - but he was out-carried 9.7 rushing attempts per game to 16.7 by Robinson. B-Rob's status as the starter on early downs entering the season will surely make Gibson - a free agent at the end of 2023 - an enticing late-round running back option based on his pass-catching prowess and RB1 fantasy production his first two years in the league. Keep in mind, that J.D. McKissic is coming off a neck injury with an out in his contract, slating Gibson to reprise the full-blown receiving role for Washington. Gibson's 80.5 PFF receiving grade ranked third among all RBs in 2022.
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118.
Kyler Murray
QB - ARI
Kyler Murray will pose an interesting dilemma for fantasy drafters in 2023. A dangerous dual-threat QB who's averaged 21.2 fantasy points over 57 NFL starts, Murray tore his ACL on Dec. 12 and may not be ready for the start of the season, so his recovery will have to be monitored closely over the summer. Murray regressed as a passer in 2022, averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt. But Murray finished QB2 in fantasy scoring in 2020, and at his best he's a difference-making quarterback who can rack up fantasy points with both his arm and his legs.
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119.
Jeff Wilson Jr.
RB - MIA
Jeff Wilson joined the Miami squad in Week 9 and immediately took on a sizable role. Wilson averaged 10 carries for 49 yards and nearly 0.4 TDs per game from Weeks 9 through 18. Raheem Mostert averaged an eerily similar workload with ten carries for 55 yards and 0.25 TDs per game. The two both missed one game entirely over this stretch, but posted an almost identical fantasy point-per-game output at ten points per game (RB32/33) with Wilson getting the slight lean in terms of expected points based on usage. Wilson out-targeted Mostert 23 to 20. However, Mostert was the superior back on a per-touch basis. The journeyman running back was superior in yards after contact per attempt (4.01 versus 2.33) and caught 18 of his 20 targets. Wilson only converted 12 of his 23 targets into receptions.
The team opted to bring back Mostert on a two-year deal ($5.6MM, $2.2MM guaranteed) and also re-sign Wilson to a 2-year deal worth up to $8.2 million ($2.65MM guaranteed). Considering the contracts and difference in age, I much prefer Wilson as my preferred Dolphins running back to target. |
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120.
Alexander Mattison
RB - MIN
Alexander Mattison smashed in most games that Dalvin Cook missed from 2020-2021. The Vikings RB2 posted five games with at least 23 touches over that stretch, including two games with 32 touches when Cook was sidelined. He averaged 23.7 PPR points and 90 rushing yards per game in those contests. The problem in 2022, was that Mattison never got the opportunity to carve out a bell cow role because Cook stayed healthy for the entire season. Aside from the occasional goal-line touch, Mattison operated strictly as RB2 for Minnesota. And that hurt Mattison's chances of boosting his stock in free agency as he settled in on returning to his old team on a 2-year, $7MM contract with $6.35MM guaranteed.
The 25-year-old running back was at least efficient in 2022 when he carried the ball, finishing with a career-high 84.2 PFF rushing grade which ranked 15th among 61 running backs with at least 70 carries in 2022. And although, he's never been a featured back for an entire season -- the glimpses of him in a full-time role as a Viking shed some light on his potential upside should he ascend to RB1 status. Dalvin Cook has been a hot trade candidate, suggesting his days at the Vikings RB1 could be numbered. The team can save close to $8 million if they release him. |
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121.
Greg Dulcich
TE - DEN
Greg Dulcich missed the first five games of his rookie season with a hamstring injury, but the third-round draft was productive upon his return, scoring a touchdown in his NFL debut and finishing the season with 33-411-2 in 10 games. Dulcich averaged 5.5 targets per game and drew eight or more targets in four of his 10 games. He's an intriguing growth stock for 2023.
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122.
Donovan Peoples-Jones
WR - CLE
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123.
Chigoziem Okonkwo
TE - TEN
A fourth-round draft pick from Maryland, Chigoziem "Chig" Okonkwo was a pleasant surprise for the Titans in his rookie season, catching 32 passes for 450 yards and three touchdowns. He averaged 14.1 yards per catch and 9.8 yards per target, flashing impressive speed and tackle-breaking ability after the catch. Okonkwo is an exciting addition to the TE pool, although the Titans' grim QB situation might force us to temper our enthusiasm for this up-and-comer.
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124.
Kareem Hunt
RB - FA
There should have been a stronger case made that the Browns offense would struggle in 2022, making Kareem Hunt a tough bet to also deliver as the 1B to Nick Chubb's 1A. Hunt's bizarre lack of usage is what really held him back, but highly drafting No. 2 RBs in offenses with major question marks or turnovers is a tough sell. Hunt played over 50% of the snaps once all year (Week 1) and averaged just 9.4 touches per game, which ranked outside the top 50 running backs in 2022. In 2021, Hunt averaged nearly 3 more touches per game. The 2023 free-agent rusher was also not particularly efficient with a career-low 3.8 yards per carry. His days in Cleveland are most certainly over which opens the door for him to return to fantasy RB1 status as a new team's bellcow.
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125.
Trey Lance
QB - SF
Will Trey Lance be a starter when the 49ers kick off the 2023 season? It seems likely that he'll compete with Brock Purdy for the starter's job, and it's possible 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan will put his thumb on the scale for Purdy after the seventh-round pick from Iowa State helped guide the Niners into the playoffs. The 49ers have added Sam Darnold to the mix as well. Lance is a dangerous runner with ample arm talent, and this will be his age-23 season, so there's plenty of time for him to make good on the potential that inspired the 49ers to give away multiple first-round draft picks in order to trade up and draft Lance. But the North Dakota State product has thrown just 420 passes since high school and still has a great deal to prove. Lance could be one of the best QB values of 2023 or a complete waste of a draft pick.
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126.
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB - FA
Incoming rookie Jahmyr Gibbs spent his first two college seasons at Georgia Tech, posting a 24% dominator rating as the team's RB1 alongside future NFL running back, Jordan Mason. In both his years at Georgia Tech, Gibbs finished second in PFF receiving grade. However, he elected to not stay at GT for his junior year and instead transferred to Alabama to be the Crimson Tide's next RB1. He led Alabama with 926 rushing yards and flashed receiving ability by catching a team-leading 44 passes for 444 receiving yards. Gibbs finished third in the FBS in receiving yards, one year removed from leading all RBs in the nation in receiving yards (470). He also flashed his explosiveness by ending the year fifth in the class in PFF's breakaway run rate (53%). At 5-foot-9 and 199 pounds, Gibbs is on the smaller size for an every-down role. But he more than makes up for it with his receiving and speed. NFL teams don't seem concerned about his size with his expected draft position at 36th overall. His explosive skill set was on full display during the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine when Gibbs blazed through the drills. He ran a 4.36 40-yard dash (second to only Devon Achane, 97th percentile). Although, Gibbs did only hit 33.5" in the vertical jump (41st percentile).
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127.
Raheem Mostert
RB - MIA
Raheem Mostert signed with the Dolphins in 2022, reuniting with former 49ers coach Mike McDaniel in South Beach. The soon-to-be 31-year-old was projected to be the back up for big free agent acquisition, Chase Edmonds. However, Edmonds fell out of favor extremely quickly and Mostert took over the starting job in Week 2. From that point until Week 8, Mostert averaged nearly ten half-points (RB21), 13.7 rushing attempts, and 62 rushing yards per game. The team quickly moved on from Edmonds before the trade deadline, replacing his spot on the roster with another ex-49ers running back, Jeff Wilson Jr.
Wilson joined the squad in Week 9 and immediately took on a sizable role. Wilson averaged 10 carries for 49 yards and nearly 0.4 TDs per game from Weeks 9 through 18. Mostert averaged an eerily similar workload with ten carries for 55 yards and 0.25 TDs per game. The two both missed one game entirely over this stretch, but posted an almost identical fantasy point-per-game output at ten points per game (RB32/33) with Wilson getting the slight lean in terms of expected points based on usage. Wilson out-targeted Mostert 23 to 20. However, Mostert was the superior back on a per-touch basis. The journeyman running back was superior in yards after contact per attempt (4.01 versus 2.33) and caught 18 of his 20 targets. Wilson only converted 12 of his 23 targets into receptions. The team opted to bring back Mostert on a two-year deal ($5.6MM, $2.2MM guaranteed) and also re-sign Wilson to a 2-year deal worth up to $8.2 million ($2.65MM guaranteed). |
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128.
Zay Jones
WR - JAC
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129.
Kenneth Gainwell
RB - PHI
Kenneth Gainwell was seldom used throughout the 2022 season as his passing-catching skill was not needed with the Philadelphia Eagles dominating their opponents en route to a Super Bowl 57 cameo. But his usage down the stretch should be noted as his role increased drastically. He out-targeted Miles Sanders 18-5 from Week 15 onward. And in Sanders' last five games, the early-down starter played fewer than 40% of the snaps after never playing fewer than 50% of the snaps from Weeks 1-16. Gainwell and Sanders split touches nearly 50/50 in the team's last four games, with Kenny G seeing the preferred usage on third/passing downs. With Sanders not returning to the team, Gainwell would be a favorite to see an expanded role on the ground in addition to his confirmed receiving role on offense. It's a major "if" Rashaad Penny can actually stay healthy. And "if" he doesn't (most likely outcome) Gainwell will benefit as will Boston Scott. Gainwell is RB39 in early best ball drafts.
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130.
Matthew Stafford
QB - LAR
After leading the Rams to a championship two seasons ago, Matthew Stafford struggled through the first nine games of 2022 before a spinal cord contusion ended his season. In 2021, Stafford averaged 287.4 passing yards per game and threw for 41 touchdowns. Last year, he averaged 231.9 passing yards and threw for 10 touchdowns. Stafford has become increasingly interception-prone in his twilight years, with 25 INTs in his last 26 regular-season games. The 35-year-old Stafford might have fuel left in the tank, but the red flags in his statistical profile make him a low-end QB2 for 2023.
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131.
Buffalo Bills
DST - BUF
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132.
Tyler Boyd
WR - CIN
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133.
Elijah Moore
WR - CLE
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134.
Derek Carr
QB - NO
The nine-year veteran is now on the Saints and will be suiting up for a team other than the Silver and Black for the first time in his career. There were some concerning signs of slippage for Carr in 2022. His interception rate (2.8%) was the highest of his career, and his completion percentage (60.8%) was the lowest since his rookie year. He averaged 7.0 yards per attempt, a five-year low. Carr doesn't add rushing value, so his fantasy value will depend on his landing spot and his ability to rebound from a down year,
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135.
San Francisco 49ers
DST - SF
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136.
Allen Lazard
WR - NYJ
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137.
Gerald Everett
TE - LAC
Gerald Everett posted career highs in receptions and receiving yardage in 2022, finishing with 58-555-4. Everett hasn't finished as a top-12 fantasy TE in any of his six NFL seasons, but he's established himself as a playable TE2. Everett benefits from playing with Justin Herbert, one of the better young quarterbacks in the league.
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138.
Taysom Hill
QB,TE - NO
A situational wildcat quarterback masquerading as a tight end, Taysom Hill finished TE5 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring last year. Hill was wildly inconsistent from week to week, however, and a 112-yard, three-TD rushing performance vs. Seattle in Week 5 accounted for a massive chunk of his fantasy scoring. Hill's fantasy value for 2023 depends largely on his usage. With Derek Carr arriving in New Orleans during the offseason, it seems likely the Saints will reduce Hill's snap counts, rendering him a fantasy afterthought who might have a couple of splash weeks but won't provide bankable value.
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139.
Leonard Fournette
RB - FA
Tom Brady's retirement marked the end of Leonard Fournette with the Buccaneers. The team was pressed up versus the salary cap (31st in available salary cap space) and they took the out in Fournette's contract by releasing him. With Fournette out, Rachaad White would become the entrenched starter entering the season. White saw his role grow during the second half of the season, forcing a timeshare with Fournette. From Weeks 10-17, White operated as the 1A in the Buccaneers' backfield averaging 11 fantasy points per game (RB26) versus Fournette's 11.3 (RB23). White wasn't great as a rusher - four yards per carry, 66.4 PFF rushing grade - but no running back was particularly efficient behind Tampa's patchwork offensive line. The first-year rusher was better than the 28-year-old on the ground, as the veteran finished third-to-last in rushing EPA (-39.13) and 6th-worst in PFF rushing grade (67.6). Lombardi Lenny posted his worst efficiency marks since joining the Bucs in 2022, ranking 4th-worst in NFL next-gen stats rushing yards over expectation per attempt (-0.36). There was also no better display of the Bucs' hierarchy in their backfield than White edging out Fournette on the field than in the first round of the NFL playoffs. Fournette carried the ball just five times for 11 yards while White started and rushed for 41 yards on 7 carries, adding 4-of-6 targets for 36 yards (56% snap share). Fournette's disappointing campaign - outside all the dump-off receptions/targets - has definitely hurt his interest in the FA market.
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140.
Mike Gesicki
TE - NE
Mike Gesicki is one of the most athletic tight ends in the league, but he was a complete nonfactor in fantasy last season. After a 73-catch, 780-yard season in 2021, Gesicki was franchised-tagged by the Dolphins last year, only to become an afterthought in head coach Mike McDaniel's offense. Gesicki averaged just 3.1 targets per game in 2022 and finished with 32 catches for 362 yards and five touchdowns. Gesicki has since signed with the Patriots, where he'll be reunited with his college coach at Penn State, Bill O'Brien, who's now the Patriots' offensive coordinator. Gesicki could become a more appealing fantasy option in 2023 if O'Brien is committed to better utilizing Gesicki's impressive skill set.
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141.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR - FA
Smith-Njiba won't burn you in the open field with his raw speed, but that isn't necessary for him to succeed. He's a route tactician with the route-running chops of an NFL veteran. Smith-Njiba's snap at the top of his stem is excellent, which allows him to create easy separation. Any team investing high draft capital in him knows what they are getting: a high-volume wide receiver that can work both inside and on the perimeter. Yes, Smith-Njiba was a slot receiver in college, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have the intangibles to get loose on the boundary. He wins with excellent, quick footwork at the line and in space. He's more quick than fast. Also, in saying that, it has to be mentioned that he is plenty quick to win in the NFL. While it's not a huge part of his game (only 16.1% of his 2021 target volume), he can win on vertical routes. He flashes the ability to stack corners on verticals from the slot easily. Smith-Njiba was ninth in yards per route run on deep targets, tied for first In PFF deep receiving grade, and second in passer rating when targeted on routes 20-plus yards in 2021 (minimum 15 deep targets). Smith-Njigba could be an immediate target hog in the NFL. He will be an immediate asset to the run game. He's a tenacious blocker who engages well with defenders and anchors them. He won't blow defenders out of their cleats, but he has the functional strength to hold running lanes or clear a path.
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142.
Devin Singletary
RB - HOU
Devin Singletary signed a one-year deal worth $3.75 million with the Houston Texans, presumably to fill the role of Dameon Pierce's primary backup.
Singletary operated as the 1A in the Buffalo Bills backfield for the majority of the 2022 season finishing the year as RB23 overall and RB27 in points per game. However, unlike the last two seasons that ended with strong finishes for the undersized rusher, Singletary was in a full-blown committee with rookie James Cook to close out the year. The first-year rusher averaged a 40% snap share over the team's final seven games, matching Singletary point-for-point (RB25 in points per game, 52% snap share). Cook was also the superior rusher in the season's totality, capping off his year by averaging 5.3 yards per carry (5th). Singletary totaled just nine more carries than Cook from Weeks 13-Week 20 but ended the year 10th in PFF rushing grade (two spots ahead of Pierce). Overall, Singletary probably won't unseat Pierce as the team's No. 1 rusher, but he poses a much bigger threat to Pierce's workload than JAGs like Rex Burkhead, Mike Boone, and Dare Ogunbowale. His PFF pass-blocking grade (73.2, 8th) might get him usage on passing downs as Pierce struggled in this capacity as a rookie (32.3, 52nd). Although it does work in Pierce's favor that Singletary has never flourished as an actual receiver, giving Pierce the slight edge on attaining a full three-down workload if he can shore up his pass protection in Year 2. |
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143.
Nico Collins
WR - HOU
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144.
Quentin Johnston
WR - FA
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145.
Dallas Cowboys
DST - DAL
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146.
Jordan Addison
WR - FA
Addison is fluid and silky smooth through his routes. He's quick in and out of his breaks. He displays nuance in his routes with pacing, subtle head fakes, and his understanding of leverage. His change of direction ability is effortless. He can gear down easily and jab step during a route without losing speed. Addison has a decent burst after the catch, but it's not likely to ever be a calling card. He dealt with drops early in his collegiate career, with 14.3% and 9.9% drop rates before 2022. He displayed growth here in 2022, decreasing that mark to 3.3%. He has strong hands, though, with contested catch rates of 53.8% and 55.6% before 2022. Addison will never be confused as a body catcher as he routinely plucks the ball from the air away from this body. Addison is a versatile wide receiver that played from the slot in 2020-2021 (68.0-82.6%) before transitioning to the boundary (75.5% out wide) in 2022. His superb route running and short area separation skills allow him to play multiple roles fluidly. Addison's varied release package at this stage of his career is impressive. Addison reminds me of watching DeVonta Smith with a difference in play strength. Smith played above his weight class, but Addison played at his weight.
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147.
Zach Ertz
TE - ARI
Zach Ertz was TE3 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring through the first 10 weeks of the 2022 season, but he tore his ACL and MCL on Nov. 13. It's not clear whether Ertz will be ready for Week 1, but he should be back early in the season. The question is whether the 32-year-old Ertz will be fit enough to continue his late-career resurgence. After seven strong seasons with the Eagles, Ertz had a nightmarish 2020 in which he had 36-335-1 in 11 games, missing five games with a high-ankle sprain. Ertz started the 2021 season sluggishly, but then a trade to the Cardinals seemed to rejuvenate him, and he produced useful numbers until he went down last year. Not only is Ertz coming off a major injury, but he may have to share snaps and targets with talented young Cardinals TE Trey McBride. If you're thinking about investing in Ertz for 2023, insist on a discount.
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148.
Tyler Higbee
TE - LAR
Tyler Higbee was busy in 2022 but not wildly productive. He finished fourth among tight ends in targets (108) and fifth in receptions (72), but with 620 receiving yards and three touchdowns, he only finished TE9 in fantasy scoring. His first touchdown of the year didn't come until Week 15. Higbee has become a decent fantasy option at TE, though he has never lived up to the promise of his spectacular late-season run in 2019, when he piled up 43-522-2 over the last five games of the year.
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149.
Denver Broncos
DST - DEN
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150.
Kenny Pickett
QB - PIT
The first quarterback taken in the 2022 NFL Draft, Kenny Pickett had mixed results in his rookie season, averaging 184.9 passing yards per game and 6.2 yards per attempt, and throwing more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (7). Pickett did get less interception-prone and sack-prone as the season went on, and he guided the Steelers to victory in his final three starts. We should probably expect more below-average passing numbers from Pickett in 2023, but he offers value as a runner, having run for 237 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie.
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151.
Cordarrelle Patterson
RB - ATL
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152.
Rondale Moore
WR - ARI
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153.
Michael Gallup
WR - DAL
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154.
Chuba Hubbard
RB - CAR
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155.
Juwan Johnson
TE - NO
Juwan Johnson finished TE11 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring last season after catching 42 passes for 508 yards and seven touchdowns. It was an impressive performance considering that the Saints slogged through 2022 with Andy Dalton as their quarterback for most of the year. A former undrafted free agent, Johnson has been a diamond in the rough for the Saints and could provide more sneaky fantasy value in 2023.
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156.
Zach Charbonnet
RB - FA
Zach Charbonnet started his college career at Michigan in 2019, where he started ahead of the future NFL draft selection, Hassan Haskins. But in 2020, Charbonnet's numbers regressed in a six-game season for Michigan due to COVID-19. He split time with Haskins again, while also losing out to work to another NFL-drafted Chris Evans and up-and-coming running back star, Blake Corum. Charbonnet was part of a major running back by the committee as a Wolverine so he transferred to UCLA in 2021 and immediately saw his production skyrocket. He would post a 25% dominator rating as a junior, finishing third among all RBs in PFF rushing grade. Charbonnet's 2022 senior production was also elite, as he finished 4th in PFF rushing grade among all RBs topping his grade from the year before. But more importantly, for fantasy purposes, the 6-foot, 214-pound running back improved on his receiving game, catching 37 balls for 320 yards on 44 targets. He posted the 5th-highest PFF receiving grade among his draft class.
Charbonnet didn't dazzle in the 40-yard dash, but he sure impressed during the jumping drills. 37" vertical (81st percentile) and 122" broad jump (78th percentile). |
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157.
Jerick McKinnon
RB - FA
From Weeks 10-17, both Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon were top-21 half-point scorers. Jerick McKinnon was the RB7 in points per game, third in RB receptions at 35 with seven receiving TDs. The Chiefs scatback made the most of his opportunities as a receiver out of the backfield especially with Mecole Hardman sidelined. Because Hardman's injury correlated with a massive spike in usage for McKinnnon. In eight games with Hardman in the lineup, McKinnon was averaging close to just three targets per game. That number jumped to five in the nine games with Hardman out, as did McKinnon's receptions totals (2-to-4). His yardage also spiked from just under 20 yards to nearly 40 receiving yards per game. It's clear at this point in McKinnon's career that he cannot be deployed as anything more than a breather/pass-catching back in the rotation with another. He is already 30 years old and probably has the most fantasy value if he remains a Chief. His re-signing with KC would also be ideal for anyone invested in Pacheco, as a McKinnon return would make it less likely that KC invests significantly into another running back option. If ends up signing elsewhere, I'd be extremely bearish on his fantasy outlook as he requires such a specific role for success.
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158.
New England Patriots
DST - NE
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159.
Justin Tucker
K - BAL
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160.
Philadelphia Eagles
DST - PHI
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161.
Zamir White
RB - LV
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162.
Samaje Perine
RB - DEN
Denver signed ex-Bengals running back Samaje Perine - 2 years, $7.5 million, $3 million guaranteed - after releasing Chase Edmonds (Buccaneers) and moving on from Mike Boone (Texans).
With Javonte Williams potentially delayed in return from his knee injury, I'd suspect that Perine (RB 46 ADP) picks up the slack to open the year if he stays in the Mile High City. The Broncos have zero other RBs of note currently under contract. Therefore, Perine has the chance to provide immediate fantasy value to start the year after carving out a role in the Bengals' offense alongside Joe Mixon last season. He served as the primary third-down back for the entire season. And when Perine got the starting nod from Weeks 11-13, the 27-year-old went OFF averaging 23.6 fantasy points per game. Perine is a legitimate threat to Williams' workload as he could easily earn the passing-down work after finishing last season 6th in PFF pass-blocking and 14th in RB targets. |
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163.
DJ Chark Jr.
WR - CAR
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164.
Trey McBride
TE - ARI
The first tight end taken in the 2022 NFL Draft, second-rounder Trey McBride played sparingly early in the season but took on a larger role after Zach Ertz sustained a season-ending knee injury in Week 10. Over Arizona's final seven games, McBride was targeted 35 times and had 25-234-1. McBride finished his college career at Colorado State with a 90-catch, 1,121-yard season, but he's not likely to get that sort of usage anytime soon. It's possible McBride could get additional snaps and targets early in the season if Ertz isn't able to play in September, but even if that's the case, McBride might not be playing early-season games with QB Kyler Murray, who also tore his ACL late last season.
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165.
Mac Jones
QB - NE
After finishing runner-up in the Offensive Rookie of the Year balloting in 2021, Mac Jones regressed slightly in his second NFL season, with slight dips in yards per attempt, completion percentage and TD rate. Jones averaged 214.1 yards per game, with 14 TD passes and 11 INTs in 14 games. Jones offers little value as a runner, and he might already be near his ceiling as a passer. Consider Jones a fantasy backup whose primary value is that he seems entrenched as New England's starter for at least one more season, barring a challenge from young backup Bailey Zappe.
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166.
Adam Thielen
WR - CAR
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167.
Jimmy Garoppolo
QB - LV
Jimmy Garoppolo was averaging 16.7 fantasy points per game through the first 12 weeks of the 2022 season before breaking his foot in a Week 13 game against the Dolphins. The injury ended Garoppolo's season and ended his time with the 49ers. Now Garoppolo is replacing Derek Carr as the starting quarterback for the Raiders. He isn't going to be a high-volume passer in Las Vegas, and he adds minimal rushing value, so at best Garoppolo will be a midrange QB2 in fantasy this year. But Garoppolo is an underrated passer who's completed better than 67% of his passes in each of the last four seasons and has a career YPA of 8.3 yards. He's no fantasy savior, but he has value.
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168.
Noah Fant
TE - SEA
Noah Fant's first season in Seattle resulted in the lowest yardage total (486) of his four-year career, as he had to share TE snaps and targets with Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson. Fant is still only 25 and is one of the more athletic tight ends in the league, but that has yet to translate into a top-10 fantasy finish at the position. He's had two top-12 finishes in half-point PPR formats, however, and the combination of youth and athleticism gives him plausible fantasy upside in the later rounds of drafts.
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169.
Tyler Bass
K - BUF
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170.
Hunter Renfrow
WR - LV
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171.
Baltimore Ravens
DST - BAL
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172.
Romeo Doubs
WR - GB
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173.
Ryan Tannehill
QB - TEN
Now in the twilight of his career, Tannehill should be considered a functional game manager with limited fantasy appeal. Tannehill finished as a top-12 QB in 2020 and 2021, but he boosted his fantasy value with seven TD runs in each of those two seasons, and we can't count on that sort of rushing production from a quarterback who'll be entering his age-35 season and had only two TD runs last season.
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174.
John Metchie III
WR - HOU
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175.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DST - TB
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176.
Hunter Henry
TE - NE
After scoring nine touchdowns in 2021, Hunter Henry scored just two touchdowns in 2022 and finished TE21 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. Now, he'll have to share TE targets with free-agent addition Mike Gesicki, who played for Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien at Penn State. Not counting the 2018 season, which he missed with a torn ACL, Henry has produced 500+ receiving yards in each of his last five seasons.
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177.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
RB - KC
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178.
New York Jets
DST - NYJ
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179.
Daniel Carlson
K - LV
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180.
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR - NYG
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181.
Rashid Shaheed
WR - NO
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182.
Gus Edwards
RB - BAL
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183.
Joshua Palmer
WR - LAC
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184.
James Robinson
RB - NE
James Robinson was unwanted by two different teams and was benched in favor of an undrafted free agent Zonovan Knight with the Jets. It's still Rhamondre Stevenson's backfield. And J-Rob likely prevents the Patriots from adding anybody else better. In the best case, from the Robinson perspective, the former Jet operates in a Damien Harris role.
But Robinson's contract is also very incentive-based, meaning he has to really earn his playing time. It's not guaranteed he sniffs the field, even as Stevenson's primary backup, if he can't recapture his pre-torn Achilles form. |
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185.
Zay Flowers
WR - FA
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186.
Alec Pierce
WR - IND
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187.
Evan McPherson
K - CIN
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188.
Jaylen Warren
RB - PIT
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189.
Chase Claypool
WR - CHI
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190.
Harrison Butker
K - KC
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191.
K.J. Osborn
WR - MIN
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192.
Jordan Love
QB - GB
With Aaron Rodgers likely to be traded, Love is expected to become the Packers' starter in 2023 after a three-year apprenticeship. There's precious little to go on here, as Love has made one career start (which didn't go very well) and has attempted just 83 passes since entering the league in 2020. Love has a live arm and above-average mobility, so he has the potential to surprise, but given the lack of data to go on with Love, there's bust potential here, too.
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193.
Curtis Samuel
WR - WAS
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194.
New Orleans Saints
DST - NO
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195.
Joshua Kelley
RB - LAC
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196.
Michael Carter
RB - NYJ
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197.
Chase Edmonds
RB - TB
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198.
Los Angeles Rams
DST - LAR
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199.
Mecole Hardman
WR - NYJ
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200.
Kansas City Chiefs
DST - KC
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201.
Allen Robinson II
WR - LAR
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202.
Skyy Moore
WR - KC
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203.
Cincinnati Bengals
DST - CIN
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204.
Sam Howell
QB - WAS
Sam Howell rode the bench for the first 16 games of his rookie year before the Commanders gave him a Week 18 start. Howell was functional if unspectacular, completing 11-of-19 passes for 169 yards, one touchdown and one interception in a 26-6 win over Dallas. Commanders head coach Ron Rivera says Howell has a chance to open the 2023 season as Washington's starting quarterback. A fifth-round draft pick in 2022, Howell had strong freshman and sophomore seasons at the University of North Carolina before regressing somewhat in his third and final year. Howell doesn't have exceptional arm talent, but his above-average mobility could boost his fantasy value.
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205.
Nick Folk
K - NE
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206.
Pittsburgh Steelers
DST - PIT
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207.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
WR - KC
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208.
Darius Slayton
WR - NYG
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209.
DeVante Parker
WR - NE
|
|
210.
Odell Beckham Jr.
WR - FA
|
|
211.
Los Angeles Chargers
DST - LAC
|
|
212.
Indianapolis Colts
DST - IND
|
|
213.
Younghoe Koo
K - ATL
|
|
214.
Pierre Strong Jr.
RB - NE
|
|
215.
Hayden Hurst
TE - CAR
After catching 26 passes for the Falcons in 2021, Hayden Hurst had 52 receptions for the Bengals in 2022, but he averaged a career-low 8.0 yards per catch and scored only two touchdowns. Now with the Panthers, Hurst will be entering his age-30 season. The change of venue improves Hurst's target outlook, but those targets will probably be coming from a rookie quarterback and won't be as valuable as targets from Joe Burrow.
|
|
216.
Matt Gay
K - IND
|
|
|
217.
Jalin Hyatt
WR - FA
|
|
218.
Terrace Marshall Jr.
WR - CAR
|
|
219.
Ryan Succop
K - FA
|
|
220.
Cleveland Browns
DST - CLE
|
|
221.
Jason Sanders
K - MIA
|
|
222.
Van Jefferson
WR - LAR
|
|
223.
Robbie Gould
K - FA
|
|
224.
Jelani Woods
TE - IND
A 6-foot-7, 265-pound behemoth, Jelani Woods had some impressive flashes in his rookie season, including a two-TD game against the Chiefs in Week 3 and an eight-catch, 98-yard game against the Steelers in Week 12. With 4.61 speed and a 98th percentile catch radius (per PlayerProfiler,com), Woods has tools to dream on and figures to become an even bigger part of the Colts' offense in 2023.
|
|
225.
Isaiah Likely
TE - BAL
Fourth-round draft pick Isaiah Likely turned heads in training camp and the preseason last summer and then had a solid if erratic rookie season for the Ravens, finishing with 36 catches for 373 yards and three touchdowns. The question is whether Likely can become a consistent fantasy contributor as the No. 2 tight end in Baltimore behind prolific pass catcher Mark Andrews.
|
|
226.
Russell Gage
WR - TB
|
|
227.
Washington Commanders
DST - WAS
|
|
228.
Brandon McManus
K - DEN
|
|
229.
Tim Patrick
WR - DEN
|
|
230.
Green Bay Packers
DST - GB
|
|
231.
Isaiah Hodgins
WR - NYG
|
|
232.
Zonovan Knight
RB - NYJ
|
|
233.
Miami Dolphins
DST - MIA
|
|
234.
Zack Moss
RB - IND
|
|
235.
Tyquan Thornton
WR - NE
|
|
236.
Tank Bigsby
RB - FA
|
|
|
237.
Jordan Mason
RB - SF
|
|
238.
Parris Campbell
WR - NYG
|
|
239.
Matt Prater
K - ARI
|
|
240.
Desmond Ridder
QB - ATL
|
|
241.
Jake Elliott
K - PHI
|
|
242.
Josh Downs
WR - FA
|
|
243.
Bryce Young
QB - FA
Likely to be a top-five pick in this year's NFL Draft, Alabama's Bryce Young is a pinpoint passer with a strong arm, quick release and the sort of field-reading ability that will endear him to his first NFL offensive coordinator. Young is agile, but he isn't going to add a great deal of fantasy value with his legs. The biggest concern with Young is his small frame. He's listed at 6-0, 194 pounds. The size issue won't prevent Young from being a top draft pick, and he's a good bet to be a Week 1 starter for whichever team selects him.
|
|
244.
Isaiah Spiller
RB - LAC
|
|
245.
Corey Davis
WR - NYJ
|
|
246.
Isaiah McKenzie
WR - IND
|
|
247.
Robert Woods
WR - HOU
|
|
|
248.
Tyrion Davis-Price
RB - SF
|
|
249.
Jason Myers
K - SEA
|
|
250.
Daniel Bellinger
TE - NYG
Fourth-round draft pick Daniel Bellinger showed promise in 2022 but missed four midseason games after an eye injury that included a fractured orbital bone. The 6-6, 255-pound Bellinger finished with 30 catches for 268 yards and two touchdowns in 12 games. The Giants' offseason signing of Darren Waller renders Bellinger undraftable in most fantasy leagues, but considering Waller's recent injury history, Bellinger could become a worthy waiver target at some point during the 2023 season.
|
|
251.
Graham Gano
K - NYG
|
|
252.
Devon Achane
RB - FA
Devon Achane finally got the chance to be the clear-cut No. 1 running back for the Aggies in 2022 with Isaiah Spiller drafted to the NFL and the uber-explosive Achane did not disappoint. The Texas A&M running back speedster rushed for 1,100 yards and 8 rushing TDs while catching 36 balls for 196 yards on 44 targets. Good for a 33% dominator rating a year after earning a 26% dominator rating while splitting time with Spiller. And although Achane will likely go through the wringer from NFL draft pundits when it comes to his smaller stature - 5-foot-81/2, 188 pounds - he put any "can he handle a large workload" concerns to rest in his final game versus LSU. Achane totaled 38 carries for 215 rushing yards and two TDs after missing a few games with an injury. The speedster also offers top-tier kickoff return ability, which will surely help boost his draft stock and get him active on game days. Achane finished as PFF's 3rd-highest graded kick returner among 2023 draft-eligible players.
Achane definitely boosted his draft stock after testing at the 2023 NFL Combine. He blazed a 4.32 40-time - while weighing in at 188 pounds. |
|
253.
C.J. Stroud
QB - FA
Projected to be a top pick in this year's NFL Draft, Ohio State's C.J. Stroud is a mature passer with a strong, accurate arm and the sort of field-reading and decision-making skills that make offensive coordinators smile. Stroud isn't a running QB, but nor is he a statue in the pocket -- he has functional mobility to avoid sacks. With a number of QB-needy teams picking early in the draft, there's a good chance Stroud will start for someone in Week 1.
|
|
|
254.
Brock Purdy
QB - SF
The last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, Brock Purdy was hardly "Mr. Irrelevant" as a rookie. After Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo sustained season-ending injuries, the 49ers turned to Purdy as their starter, and he obliged with smart, mistake-free football, guiding the 49ers all the way to the NFL Championship Game before a torn UCL ended his season and torpedoed the 49ers' title hopes. Assuming Purdy's recovery goes smoothly, he'll likely compete with Lance for a starting role in 2023. The 49ers traded up to draft Lance No. 3 overall in 2021, but head coach Kyle Shanahan could decide that Purdy is simply a better distributor and a better candidate to fully leverage San Francisco's abundant skill-position talent.
|
|
255.
Baker Mayfield
QB - TB
|
|
256.
Nyheim Hines
RB - BUF
|
|
257.
Jacksonville Jaguars
DST - JAC
|
|
258.
KJ Hamler
WR - DEN
|
|
259.
Jerome Ford
RB - CLE
|
|
260.
Sterling Shepard
WR - NYG
|
|
261.
Kyren Williams
RB - LAR
|
|
262.
JaMycal Hasty
RB - JAC
|
|
263.
Michael Mayer
TE - FA
Regarded by many as the top rookie tight end in the Class of 2023, Michael Mayer of Notre Dame has drawn comparisons to Jason Witten because he shines as both a pass catcher and blocker. Mayer had more than 800 receiving yards in each of his last two college seasons, scoring seven touchdowns in 2021 and nine in 2022. He's likely to be a first-round pick in this year's draft and could provide immediate fantasy value if he lands in the right spot.
|
|
264.
Boston Scott
RB - PHI
|
|
265.
Carolina Panthers
DST - CAR
|
|
266.
Greg Joseph
K - MIN
|
|
267.
Wil Lutz
K - NO
|
|
268.
Albert Okwuegbunam
TE - DEN
Albert Okwuegbunam is one of the fastest, most athletic tight ends in the league, but he's been unable to gain a sturdy foothold in the Broncos' offense during his first three NFL seasons. It's possible that the arrival of new head coach Sean Payton will finally unlock Albert O's potential as he heads into his age-25 season. Okwuegbunam bears watching this summer for signs of progress.
|
|
269.
Cade Otton
TE - TB
Fourth-round draft pick Cade Otton turned in a solid rookie season for the Buccaneers, finishing with 42 catches for 391 yards and two touchdowns. Otton tended to be more productive in games that fellow TE Cameron Brate missed die to injury. Brate is still around, and the Buccaneers have an unsettled QB situation following Tom Brady's retirement, so Otton has a difficult path to fantasy relevance in 2023.
|
|
270.
Greg Zuerlein
K - NYJ
|
|
271.
David Bell
WR - CLE
|
|
272.
Josh Reynolds
WR - DET
|
|
273.
Logan Thomas
TE - WAS
|
|
274.
Robert Tonyan
TE - CHI
|
|
275.
Dustin Hopkins
K - LAC
|
|
276.
Tennessee Titans
DST - TEN
|
|
277.
Kendre Miller
RB - FA
Kendre Miller spent his first two seasons in a two-way platoon with Zach Evans before the latter transferred to Mississippi. Miller flashed talent in limited sample size, leading the FBS in yards after contact per attempt (5.06) in 2021. But with Evans gone in 2022, Miller was thrust into the RB1 role for the Horned Frogs, where he posted a career-high 23 percent dominator rating. The bell cow rushed for nearly 1400 yards at 5-foot-11, 215 pounds (identical to Bijan Robinson), and his size is enticing in addition to the efficiency he displayed on a per-play basis at the college level. Miller's career of 3.14 yards per play ranks fourth best in the class. He's explosive with the ball in his hands, as indicated by his 21 rushes of 15-plus yards last year (tied for the fifth-highest in the class).
Miller did not test at the NFL Combine (recovering from post-season knee surgery), but I would assume that he will test in some capacity, if possible, at TCU's Pro Day on March 30th. Based on his size and other measurables, his closest comparables per Mockdraftable.com include Tyler Allgeier, Jeff Wilson, and Stevan Ridley. |
|
278.
Julio Jones
WR - FA
|
|
279.
Brett Maher
K - FA
|
|
280.
Kendrick Bourne
WR - NE
|
|
281.
Mack Hollins
WR - ATL
|
|
282.
Irv Smith Jr.
TE - CIN
Hopes were high for Irv Smith Jr. in 2022 after he missed the entire 2021 season with a torn meniscus in his knee, but Smith endured a high-ankle sprain in Week 8 and didn't make it back until Week 18. Smith finished the year with 25 catches for 182 yards and two touchdowns in eight games. Smith won't turn 25 until August, so there's still hope that the former second-round draft pick will become a fantasy-viable tight end, but he's likely to be an afterthought in most 2023 fantasy drafts.
|
|
283.
Israel Abanikanda
RB - FA
|
|
284.
Kenyan Drake
RB - FA
|
|
285.
Devin Duvernay
WR - BAL
|
|
286.
Marvin Jones Jr.
WR - DET
|
|
287.
Sean Tucker
RB - FA
|
|
288.
Kayshon Boutte
WR - FA
|
|
289.
Zach Evans
RB - FA
|
|
290.
Laviska Shenault Jr.
WR - CAR
|
|
291.
Austin Hooper
TE - LV
After finishing TE3 in fantasy points per game in 2019, Austin Hooper has largely been a fantasy afterthought ever since. He's had fewer than 450 receiving yards in each of the last three years, and he finished TE25 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring last season. Even though he has signed with the Raiders and has less target competition in the TE room, the 28-year-old Hooper offers limited upside for 2023.
|
|
292.
Quez Watkins
WR - PHI
|
|
293.
D'Ernest Johnson
RB - JAC
|
|
294.
New York Giants
DST - NYG
|
|
295.
Latavius Murray
RB - FA
Latavius Murray performed well when Denver scooped him up during the middle of last season after Javonte Williams went down with a devastating knee injury. In 12 games from Weeks 6-18, Murray was the RB24 in half-point scoring averaging 10.3 points per game (RB30). He was PFF's 10th-highest graded rusher (82.8) and averaged 15 touches per game. Murray also averaged nearly 70 yards from scrimmage and 3 targets per game. Not too shabby for the 33-year-old running back.
|
|
296.
Chris Boswell
K - PIT
|
|
297.
Khalil Shakir
WR - BUF
|
|
298.
Hassan Haskins
RB - TEN
|
|
|
299.
Dalton Kincaid
TE - FA
|
|
|
300.
Roschon Johnson
RB - FA
|
|
301.
Minnesota Vikings
DST - MIN
|
|
302.
Richie James Jr.
WR - FA
|
|
303.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
WR - TEN
|
|
304.
Rodrigo Blankenship
K - FA
|
|
305.
Chris Evans
RB - CIN
|
|
306.
Jonnu Smith
TE - ATL
|
|
307.
Mason Crosby
K - FA
|
|
308.
Arizona Cardinals
DST - ARI
|
|
309.
Seattle Seahawks
DST - SEA
|
|
310.
Anthony Richardson
QB - FA
Anthony Richardson might have the highest ceiling of any quarterback in this year's NFL Draft. The 6-4, 235-pound Richardson has ideal size, a rocket for his arm and eye-opening running ability -- all of which was on full display at this year's NFL Scouting Combine, where Richardson tested like Superman. But Richardson was a starter for only one of his three seasons at the University of Florida, and after completing only 53.8% of his passes in 2022, there are questions about his accuracy. Richardson is a project who might not start for an NFL team right away. When he eventually become a starter, Richardson can tide over his fantasy managers with rushing production while his passing skills are developing.
|
|
311.
Ka'imi Fairbairn
K - HOU
|
|
312.
Tyler Conklin
TE - NYJ
A low-ceiling, high-floor fantasy option, Tyler Conklin has finished TE17 and TE16 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring the last two seasons. It's possible Conklin's ceiling could get a little higher if Aaron Rodgers is starting games for the Jets in 2023.
|
|
313.
Jarvis Landry
WR - FA
|
|
314.
Braxton Berrios
WR - MIA
|
|
315.
Melvin Gordon III
RB - FA
|
|
316.
Cairo Santos
K - CHI
|
|
317.
J.D. McKissic
RB - FA
|
|
318.
Eno Benjamin
RB - NO
|
|
|
319.
DeWayne McBride
RB - FA
|
|
320.
Darrel Williams
RB - FA
|
|
321.
Salvon Ahmed
RB - MIA
|
|
322.
Will Levis
QB - FA
Likely to be a top-10 draft pick, Will Levis has immense potential but might need a few years before he's ready to fulfill it. Levis has prototypical size (6-3, 232 pounds), a cannon arm and dynamic rushing ability. But Levis is coming off a somewhat disappointing final college season at Kentucky, and he might not be a Week 1 starter for whichever team drafts him. He'll get a shot at some point in his rookie season, however, and perhaps Levis' running ability can float his fantasy value while he develops as a passer.
|
|
323.
Matt Breida
RB - NYG
|
|
324.
Detroit Lions
DST - DET
|
|
325.
Rashee Rice
WR - FA
|
|
|
326.
Tyjae Spears
RB - FA
|
|
327.
Jake Ferguson
TE - DAL
|
|
|
328.
Luke Musgrave
TE - FA
|
|
|
329.
Cedric Tillman
WR - FA
|
|
330.
Riley Patterson
K - JAC
|
|
331.
Darrell Henderson Jr.
RB - FA
|
|
332.
Chosen Anderson
WR - FA
|
|
333.
Dontrell Hilliard
RB - FA
|
|
334.
Nelson Agholor
WR - BAL
|
|
335.
Justin Jackson
RB - FA
|
|
336.
Jameis Winston
QB - NO
Jameis Winston started the first three games of 2022 for the Saints, sustained four fractures in his back in Week 4, and then was never reinstated as the starter even after his back had healed. The 29-year-old has a strong arm and 80 NFL starts under his belt, but it appears Winston is destined for backup duty again now that the Saints have added Derek Carr.
|
|
337.
Ronald Jones II
RB - DAL
|
|
338.
Kenny Golladay
WR - FA
|
|
|
339.
Evan Hull
RB - FA
|
|
340.
Randy Bullock
K - FA
|
|
|
341.
Kenny McIntosh
RB - FA
|
|
|
342.
Puka Nacua
WR - FA
|
|
343.
Chicago Bears
DST - CHI
|
|
344.
Marlon Mack
RB - FA
|
|
345.
Marvin Mims
WR - FA
|
|
346.
Jacoby Brissett
QB - WAS
|
|
347.
Foster Moreau
TE - FA
|
|
348.
Noah Brown
WR - HOU
|
|
349.
Jamison Crowder
WR - NYG
|
|
350.
Myles Gaskin
RB - MIA
|
|
351.
Rex Burkhead
RB - FA
|
|
352.
Mark Ingram II
RB - FA
|
|
|
353.
Xavier Hutchinson
WR - FA
|
|
354.
Sam Darnold
QB - SF
The third overall pick of the 2018 draft, Sam Darnold probably won't ever live up to the expectations he carried coming out of USC, but a move to San Francisco makes him an intriguing backup for the 49ers and their high-powered offense. Darnold gave the Panthers some spurts of functionality over the last two years. His career passing numbers aren't particularly impressive, but he's been surprisingly effective as a runner, with 328 rushing yards and seven TD runs in 18 games over the last two years.
|
|
355.
Tyler Davis
K - FA
|
|
|
356.
Sam Laporta
TE - FA
|
|
357.
Keaontay Ingram
RB - ARI
|
|
358.
Ty Johnson
RB - NYJ
|
|
359.
DeeJay Dallas
RB - SEA
|
|
|
360.
Darnell Washington
TE - FA
|
|
|
361.
Eric Gray
RB - FA
|
|
362.
Mo Alie-Cox
TE - IND
|
|
363.
Brevin Jordan
TE - HOU
|
|
364.
Greg Dortch
WR - ARI
|
|
365.
Michael Badgley
K - DET
|
|
366.
Davis Mills
QB - HOU
|
|
367.
Deonte Harty
WR - BUF
|
|
368.
Kevin Harris
RB - NE
|
|
369.
Adam Trautman
TE - NO
|
|
370.
Gardner Minshew II
QB - IND
|
|
371.
Trey Sermon
RB - PHI
|
|
372.
Malik Davis
RB - DAL
|
|
373.
Snoop Conner
RB - JAC
|
|
|
374.
Chase Brown
RB - FA
|
|
|
375.
Parker Washington
WR - FA
|
|
376.
Carson Wentz
QB - FA
After washing out as the Colts' starter in 2021, Carson Wentz was similarly disappointing in Washington last season, averaging only 6.4 yards per pass attempt over eight games. Wentz is unlikely to begin the 2023 season as a starter, though it's possible he could make a few early-season starts for a team looking to bring along a rookie quarterback slowly.
|
|
377.
Houston Texans
DST - HOU
|
|
378.
Ameer Abdullah
RB - LV
|
|
379.
Marquez Callaway
WR - DEN
|
|
380.
Cade York
K - CLE
|
|
381.
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
RB - TB
|
|
|
382.
Deuce Vaughn
RB - FA
|
|
383.
Sammy Watkins
WR - FA
|
|
|
384.
A.T. Perry
WR - FA
|
|
|
385.
Mohamed Ibrahim
RB - FA
|
|
386.
Jalen Tolbert
WR - DAL
|
|
387.
C.J. Uzomah
TE - NYJ
|
|
388.
Rico Dowdle
RB - DAL
|
|
389.
Taylor Heinicke
QB - ATL
|
|
|
390.
Jonathan Mingo
WR - FA
|
|
391.
Velus Jones Jr.
WR - CHI
|
|
392.
Jordan Akins
TE - CLE
|
|
393.
Damien Williams
RB - FA
|
|
394.
Will Dissly
TE - SEA
|
|
|
395.
Zack Kuntz
TE - FA
|
|
396.
Jarrett Stidham
QB - DEN
|
|
397.
Las Vegas Raiders
DST - LV
|
|
398.
Kyle Philips
WR - TEN
|
|
399.
Cedrick Wilson Jr.
WR - MIA
|
|
400.
Calvin Austin III
WR - PIT
|
|
401.
Raheem Blackshear
RB - CAR
|
|
402.
Tyler Huntley
QB - BAL
|
|
403.
O.J. Howard
TE - LV
|
|
404.
Ty Chandler
RB - MIN
|
|
405.
Harrison Bryant
TE - CLE
|
|
406.
Deon Jackson
RB - IND
|
|
407.
Atlanta Falcons
DST - ATL
|
|
408.
Dyami Brown
WR - WAS
|
|
409.
Jalen Reagor
WR - MIN
|
|
410.
Byron Pringle
WR - FA
|
|
411.
Kyle Rudolph
TE - FA
|
|
412.
Matt Ryan
QB - FA
|
|
413.
Darrynton Evans
RB - CHI
|
|
414.
Zach Wilson
QB - NYJ
Zach Wilson is coming off a disastrous 2022 season in which he completed 54.5% of his passes, threw more interceptions (7) than TD passes (6), and lost four of his last five starts. The Jets viewed Wilson as their quarterback of the future after drafting him No. 2 overall in 2021, but it's now he's ticketed for a backup role. Wilson has NFL-caliber arm talent and above-average mobility, so it's too early to completely slam the door on him, but Wilson's future is very uncertain.
|
|
415.
T.Y. Hilton
WR - FA
|
|
416.
Noah Gray
TE - KC
Chiefs TE Noah Gray is destined to have limited fantasy potential as long as he's playing behind Travis Kelce. But Gray, a fifth-round pick in 2021, is an athletic pass catcher whose career is worth monitoring. Gray had 28 catches for 299 yards and one touchdown last season. He'd be a hot waiver wire pickup if Kelce were to ever get hurt.
|
|
417.
Caleb Huntley
RB - ATL
|
|
418.
Tutu Atwell
WR - LAR
|
|
419.
Donald Parham Jr.
TE - LAC
|
|
420.
Kylen Granson
TE - IND
|
|
421.
Ty Montgomery
WR,RB - NE
|
|
|
422.
Tucker Kraft
TE - FA
|
|
423.
Andy Dalton
QB - CAR
|
|
424.
Travis Homer
RB - CHI
|
|
425.
Trestan Ebner
RB - CHI
|
|
426.
Hunter Long
TE - LAR
|
|
427.
Jauan Jennings
WR - SF
|
|
428.
Cameron Dicker
K - LAC
|
|
429.
Jonathan Williams
RB - WAS
|
|
430.
Kyle Trask
QB - TB
|
|
431.
Olamide Zaccheaus
WR - FA
|
|
|
432.
Zakhari Franklin
WR - FA
|
|
|
433.
Tyler Scott
WR - FA
|
|
434.
Sony Michel
RB - FA
|
|
435.
Mike Davis
RB - FA
|
|
436.
James Mitchell
TE - DET
|
|
437.
Mike White
QB - MIA
|
|
438.
Tommy Tremble
TE - CAR
|
|
|
439.
Keaton Mitchell
RB - FA
|
|
440.
Bailey Zappe
QB - NE
|
|
441.
Brock Wright
TE - DET
|
|
442.
Tre'Quan Smith
WR - NO
|
|
443.
Giovani Bernard
RB - FA
|
|
444.
Peyton Hendershot
TE - DAL
|
|
445.
Justice Hill
RB - BAL
|
|
446.
Chase McLaughlin
K - TB
|
|
447.
Trent Sherfield
WR - BUF
|
|
448.
Mike Boone
RB - HOU
|
|
|
449.
Jayden Reed
WR - FA
|
|
450.
Randall Cobb
WR - FA
|
|
451.
Chris Moore
WR - FA
|
|
452.
Ben Skowronek
WR - LAR
|
|
|
453.
Justyn Ross
WR - KC
|
|
|
454.
Bryce Ford-Wheaton
WR - FA
|
|
|
455.
Dontayvion Wicks
WR - FA
|
|
|
456.
Jake Moody
K - FA
|
|
457.
Zane Gonzalez
K - SF
|
|
458.
Jeremy Ruckert
TE - NYJ
|
|
459.
Demarcus Robinson
WR - FA
|
|
460.
Joey Slye
K - WAS
|
|
461.
Kene Nwangwu
RB - MIN
|
|
462.
Jalen Nailor
WR - MIN
|
|
463.
Shi Smith
WR - CAR
|
|
464.
Colt McCoy
QB - ARI
|
|
465.
Eddy Pineiro
K - CAR
|
|
466.
Colby Parkinson
TE - SEA
|
|
467.
Duke Johnson Jr.
RB - FA
|
|
468.
Craig Reynolds
RB - DET
|
|
469.
Gary Brightwell
RB - NYG
|
|
470.
DeAndre Carter
WR - FA
|
|
471.
Ashton Dulin
WR - IND
|
|
472.
Quintez Cephus
WR - DET
|
|
473.
Jaret Patterson
RB - FA
|
|
474.
Justin Watson
WR - FA
|
|
475.
Collin Johnson
WR - NYG
|
|
|
476.
Luke Schoonmaker
TE - FA
|
|
477.
Josh Oliver
TE - MIN
|
|
478.
Phillip Lindsay
RB - FA
|
|
479.
Equanimeous St. Brown
WR - CHI
|
|
480.
Malik Willis
QB - TEN
|
|
481.
Cameron Brate
TE - FA
|
|
|
482.
Danny Gray
WR - SF
|