Fantasy Football Player Notes
2022 Draft Rankings
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1.
Jonathan Taylor
RB - IND (vs . HOU)
After playing just a 70% snap share once in 2020, Jonathan Taylor surpassed that number in nine contests in 2021, including eight weeks during the team's last eight games. Taylor also led the NFL in red-zone touches (92), which was not that surprising considering he ranked fifth in that category as a rookie.
That elite goal-line usage helped separate Taylor from the pack as the bonafide No. 1 running back in fantasy football. No player came close to sniffing his amount of volume near paydirt. Taylor's 42 carries inside the 10-yard line were 12 more than the next-closest back (Damien Harris, 30). Pairing Taylor's elite red-zone usage with his ascending role as a receiver - 11th in routes run and sixth in route participation in 2021 - makes him worthy of the 1.01 pick across all fantasy formats. No quarterback targeted running backs more than new Colts quarterback Matt Ryan did in 2021 - 8.6 targets per game. |
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2.
Derrick Henry
RB - TEN (at JAC)
Those that faded Derrick Henry as a first-round pick in 2021 received suboptimal results. The Tennessee Titans running back led the position in fantasy PPR points per game (23.4) through eight weeks and bested his 2020 2,000-yard campaign by more than 2.5 PPR points per game.
The unicorn running back averaged 29.6 touches per game - seven more than the next closest running back before his injury. And although he didn't play again until the postseason, Henry still finished 15th in the NFL in total touches and as the RB20 overall in just eight games played. No running back better depicts the "volume is king" mantra better than the King himself and his guaranteed volume make him near bulletproof. Coming off an injury-plagued season does raise some concerns about whether Henry's body is going to break down because of his insane workload. And the lack of pass-game usage is a detriment to his value in PPR formats. But it's impossible to ignore his workload opportunity in 2022 within a Titans anemic passing offense. They don't have any reason to not feature him and there are no indications that they are going to stop with him due $15M this season. Seems more likely than not they ride Henry did his contract expires before the 2024 season when he hits age 30. |
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3.
Austin Ekeler
RB - LAC (at DEN)
Austin Ekeler isn't used as a true three-down workhorse, but it's hard to tell based on the actual amount of touches he sees in the Los Angeles Chargers offense. At 5-foot-10 and 200 pounds, Ekeler finished 8th in the NFL in total touches (276) and 14th in touches per game (17.2).
But the raw touches hardly showcase the fantasy value Ekeler possesses, because he often commands an extremely high-share of high-value targets ie. targets and red-zone opportunities. His 13.9% target share and 70 receptions ranked second behind only Najee Harris. Ekeler's 18 red-zone touchdowns and 63 red-zone touches ranked first and second respectively. With such a secure role as a receiver out of the backfield and as a featured red-zone weapon in a high-powered offense, it's hard to imagine a healthy Ekeler not returning at least top-5 fantasy status in 2022. He wrapped a bow on the 2021 season as the RB3 in points per game and RB2 overall in half-point scoring. |
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4.
Christian McCaffrey
RB - CAR (at NO)
We all know the deal with CMC. When healthy, he's easily the best player in all of fantasy football. He played in four games in 2021 with at least a 50% snap share and his PPR fantasy finishes were RB1, RB3, RB4 and RB3. McCaffrey averaged 26 fantasy points per game. Considering the extent of CMC's injuries have not resulted in major surgeries or completely torn ligaments, I like him bouncing back to form in 2022. I like that the Panthers are already putting him in preseason bubble wrap to make sure he's full-go for Week 1. Four of the Panthers' 5 wins last season came when CMC was active and playing.
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5.
Dalvin Cook
RB - MIN (at CHI)
Same old song and dance for Dalvin Cook in 2021. The Minnesota Vikings running back was a workhorse when healthy, averaging 22 touches per game (5th) and 15.2 fantasy points per game (RB11). But the market seems to have soured on the consensus No. 2 pick from a season ago, because he missed four games and his production didn't align with his usage.
His ADP has fallen to the back of Round 1, and it's unwarranted based on the impending touchdown regression Cook will experience in 2022. His 15 goal-line carries ranked fourth in the NFL last season, but he converted just three into scores. Considering Cook averaged 16 TDs from 2019-2020, his meager 6 TDs from last season look like a blip on the radar. |
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6.
Joe Mixon
RB - CIN (vs . BAL)
Joe Mixon was an absolute steal in the second round of fantasy drafts in 2021 based on his easily projected large workload within an ascending offense. The Bengals running back finished the season third in total touches (334) and sixth in touches per game (20.9).
Mixon also ranked third in goal-line carries (16) and tied Jonathan Taylor/James Conner in red-zone touchdowns. 2021 was the perfect storm for the fantasy RB3 in half-points scoring coming off a truncated 2020 campaign, and there's reason to believe the positive production will continue in 2022. The Bengals offensive line has been revamped entirely, ensuring that Mixon will be able to repeat his top-10 PFF rushing grade from a season ago. He also flashed upside a receiver down the playoff stretch for the Bengals, averaging nearly six targets per game while running a route on 57% of offensive dropbacks through six games. That route participation would have ranked third among all running backs during the regular season. Mixon fits all the criteria that a fantasy manager would want as a mid-range first round selection in fantasy football. However, he owns the RB7 ADP at 12th overall in early best ball drafts. |
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7.
Najee Harris
RB - PIT (vs . CLE)
If there is any running back that could potentially de-throne Derrick Henry as the poster child for the "volume is king" mantra, it's Najee Harris. The Steelers rookie running back managed a league-leading 381 touches in 2021, and finished as the RB4 in half-point scoring as a result.
The volume he is going to see in 2022 will ensure he is one of the safest running backs available in fantasy football. Still, the issue with Harris pertains to his true upside potential in an potentially capped offense led by a rookie quarterback. An immobile Ben Roethlisberger was a check-down target machine to Harris in 2021 which may not be the case in 2022. And despite all of his total raw touches, Harris only saw 37 touches (22nd) in the red zone and scored six red-zone touchdowns. |
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8.
Nick Chubb
RB - CLE (at PIT)
The days of Nick Chubb's absurd rushing efficiency going to waste have come to an end. During his four-year career, the Browns running back has never averaged fewer than five yards per carry. But at the same time, he has also never played in a top-12 scoring offense.
The best offense he played was in 2020 - 13th in points per game - which by no coincidence was also Chubb's best season from a point per game measure. The former Georgia back averaged 17.3 PPR points per game, which would have ranked sixth in 2021. The 12 rushing touchdowns definitely boosted Chubb's numbers, and scoring double-digit TDs is well within his reach with Deshaun Watson taking charge under center for the long term. Just be wary that Chubb won't be used as an every down back. Even when Kareem Hunt missed time in 2021, Chubb's role/usage didn't change drastically with the Browns sprinkling in other running backs on the depth chart. His 17-18 touches per game average the last two seasons shouldn't change even if the team trades Hunt this offseason. Chubb's role as a receiver also leaves a lot to be desired after he posted a meager 4.8% target share in 2021, averaging fewer than two targets per game (1.8). His path to upside is touchdowns and that's represented by his five top-6 weekly finishes last season - fourth among running backs. |
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9.
Cooper Kupp
WR - LAR (at SEA)
What else is there to say about Cooper Kupp's historic 2021 campaign? The guy was essentially lapping the other wide receivers, finishing No. 1 overall in points per game, receiving yards (1,947) and target share (31%) with over 200 targets total in 21 games played.
New quarterback Matthew Stafford elevated Kupp back inside the top-5 fantasy WRs - as he previously was in 2019. Stafford's arrival in L.A. was the code to cracking Kupp's untapped potential especially with touchdowns. After catching just three the year prior, Kupp led the league with 16 TD scores - a feat that has happened only six times since 2007. However, regression will also certainly hit Kupp's production in 2022, just because it's near impossible for him to repeat his once-in-a-lifetime production. Of the five WRs that caught at least 16 touchdowns, they averaged just 6.6 TDs the following season. Only two (Davante Adams, Randy Moss) were able to haul in double-digit scores. |
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10.
Ja'Marr Chase
WR - CIN (vs . BAL)
Ja'Marr Chase broke Justin Jefferson's record for most receiving yards by a rookie, finishing 2021 as the WR5 in fantasy points per game and the WR22 in expected fantasy points per game. Only Deebo Samuel scored more fantasy points above expectation (+74.3) than Chase - a testament to his home-run hitting ability. Chase's 18.0 yards per reception ranked second-best in the NFL behind only Samuel.
The Bengals wide receivers' dominance continued in the postseason with back-to-back 100-yard games in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Chase commanded a 27% target share when it mattered most during postseason play, a 5% increase from his regular season target share. |
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11.
Justin Jefferson
WR - MIN (at CHI)
Justin Jefferson has been a revelation since entering the league. He has the most receiving yards in NFL history (3,016) in a player's first two seasons and is PFF's second-highest-graded receiver over that span (91.7).
The Minnesota Vikings wide receiver finished 2021 as the WR4 in fantasy points per game (19.5 PPR) and expected fantasy points per game (18.8). Jefferson was the model of consistency at just 22 years old, finishing as a weekly top-20 wide receiver in 76% of his games (13 of 17) while commanding the league's third-highest target share (27%) and No. 1 air yards share (44%). |
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12.
Alvin Kamara
RB - NO (vs . CAR)
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13.
Travis Kelce
TE - KC (at LV)
After finishing as the fantasy TE1 for three straight seasons, Travis Kelce was finally de-throned by Mark Andrews in 2021. The Kansas City Chiefs tight end posted his worst points per game average (16.6) dating back to 2017 while also posting a career-low in yards per route run (1.84) and PFF grade (81.8).
It seems logical that Kelce's reign as the perennial consensus TE1 has come to a conclusion as he enters his age-33 season in 2022. However, it's impossible to ignore the high-end target share that Kelce will command in the Chiefs offense after they traded Tyreek Hill. His 20% target share ranked second-best at the position in 2021. Although it was a slight fall-off from his 23% average target share from 2019 and 2020. |
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14.
Deebo Samuel
WR - SF (vs . ARI)
Deebo Samuel made me pay the price for overlooking him, as the talented wideout finished last season as the WR2 overall and in points per game (18.8). His receiving production alone would have him placed inside the top-10.
But there's reason to believe that Samuel won't be able to sustain that same elite production from last season. Natural regression is firmly in play considering no WR earned more fantasy points above expectation than Samuel did in 2021. And that number doesn't come as a surprise considering nearly 30% of Samuel's fantasy points came from rushing alone. |
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15.
Mark Andrews
TE - BAL (at CIN)
Last year, Mark Andrews was the early-round tight end who drove rosters to fantasy championships. The Baltimore Ravens fourth-year TE led the position with a 25% target share, 28% air yards share and 17.5 fantasy points per game. He ran a route on 84% of offensive dropbacks, which also ranked first.
With Marquise Brown traded to the Cardinals, Andrews has solidified himself as clear TE1 with a still unproven second-year wideout as his main competition for targets. However, be aware that even if Andrews does repeat his efforts as TE1 it may not be to the extent that it was in 2021. His 623 routes run were 209 more than he had in 2020 and fueled the career-year. Andrews' increase in route running was tied to the Ravens boosted pass-play rate (56%). From 2019-2020, Baltimore passed on fewer than 46% of their plays. Because Baltimore's increase in passing was due out of necessity in 2021, I'd project it to regress closer to the 2019-2020 rate for this upcoming season. |
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16.
Davante Adams
WR - LV (vs . KC)
A healthy Davante Adams has finished no worse than WR5 attached to Aaron Rodgers since 2018, and he ended 2021 third in fantasy points per game at age 29.
Adams' high level of play won't stop in Las Vegas, but his fantasy stock does get slightly dented going from Rodgers to Derek Carr. It's unlikely that Carr hyper-targets Adams to the length of a 28% target share as Rodgers has done for so many seasons. Incumbent Raiders pass-catchers Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow represent more target competition than Adams has ever played with since becoming the alpha in Green Bay. |
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17.
Javonte Williams
RB - DEN (vs . LAC)
Running back Melvin Gordon signed a one-year deal with the Denver Broncos, ultimately halting the Javonte Williams 2022 breakout season. The idea of Williams playing a three-down role was salivating, but Gordon's return should not be overlooked after a seriously underrated 2021 campaign.
MG3's return definitely hurts Williams' top-tier fantasy ceiling. He's going to split work with another capable back in Gordon which is exactly what new head coach Nathaniel Hackett desires and spoke on at the NFL owners meeting in March. However, keep in mind that Williams finished 13th in touches last season (246, 14.6 per game) and would be the favorite to take another step forward in the passing game - Aaron Jones-esque - after finishing as one of two rookie RBs inside the top-15 in route participation in 2021: Najee Harris (first) and Javonte Williams (13th). Williams falls just out of the fantasy RB1 conversation for me in redraft and best ball, but he's right on the cusp. I don't think he can be ranked worse than RB15 considering that's where he finished as a rookie amid a split workload in a much worse offensive environment. |
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18.
Stefon Diggs
WR - BUF (vs . NE)
2021 was a somewhat odd season for Stefon Diggs as his fantasy production took a step back from his first season in Buffalo. His 29% target share fell to 24% as did his yards per route run (2.5 versus 1.8). This resulted in Diggs finishing with just two games with at least 90 receiving yards, a dramatic decrease from his ten 90-plus yard outings during the 2020 regular season.
He finished as a top-15 WR just once through the first nine weeks of the season but improved down the stretch as Buffalo's offense hit its stride. He had three top-10 finishes as the WR8 in fantasy points per game in half-point scoring (14.8). Still, top-5 upside still exists with Diggs in this explosive Bills offense even if his target share holds at 24% in 2022. Because his command of high-value targets in the Buffalo offense was unmatched by almost every other WR in the NFL. He was one of just two WRs to hit over 2,000 air yards (Justin Jefferson). Diggs also commanded the most end-zone targets in the NFL (25) during the regular season - six more than the next closest receiver (Justin Jefferson). |
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19.
D'Andre Swift
RB - DET (at GB)
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20.
Leonard Fournette
RB - TB (at ATL)
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21.
CeeDee Lamb
WR - DAL (at WAS)
No more Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson can only spell great things for CeeDee Lamb in 2022. The biggest issue with Lamb was that he never was seeing the requisite target volume in an offense that had a surplus of playmakers.
Lamb boasted just an 18% target share last season - which ranked outside the top-30 among all pass-catchers. But with the 8th-most vacated targets left to be distributed between Lamb, tight end Dalton Schultz, ACL-injury returning Michael Gallup, veteran James Washington and third-round rookie pick Jalen Tolbert, I'd bet Lamb crests at least a 20% target share in 2022. His 21% target rate per route run bested anybody in Dallas last season. And that means more fantasy production will be on its way. Only once did Lamb fail to score double-digit fantasy points in a game where he commanded fewer than six targets in 2021. |
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22.
James Conner
RB - ARI (at SF)
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23.
Mike Evans
WR - TB (at ATL)
Mike Evans commanded just a 16% target share throughout the regular season and playoffs, but still finished eighth in both fantasy points per game and overall in half-point scoring.
The Buccaneers wide receiver achieved his eighth consecutive 1,000-yard season and set a new career-high with 14 touchdown grabs, breaking his record from 2020. Double-digit touchdowns accompanied by a low target share is usually a sign to fade a wide receiver, but that's hardly the case in a pass-happy offense led by Tom Brady. |
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24.
Aaron Jones
RB - GB (vs . DET)
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25.
A.J. Brown
WR - PHI (vs . NYG)
The veteran has never played in a pass-happy offense, and that doesn't necessarily project to change too drastically if the Eagles run back their operation ground and pound from a season ago. Still, Brown's talent has yet to hold him back amid a poor situation - WR5 in fantasy points per game in 2020 - and that shouldn't stop in Philly.
He will be the alpha dog for the Eagles and remain a fantasy WR1 in 2022 fantasy leagues. Brown finished fourth in yards per route run (2.72) and in target rate per route run (28%) despite battling injuries last season. |
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26.
Josh Allen
QB - BUF (vs . NE)
The back-to-back reigning fantasy QB1 showed no signs of slowing down in 2021. Allen led the quarterback position averaging 24.6 fantasy points per game and a whopping 26.7 expected fantasy points - nearly three points more than the next closest signal-caller. The Bills quarterback's dual-threat ability - third in rushing yards (763) and rushing attempts (122) - provides him a fantasy ceiling that only a few other quarterbacks can match. No quarterback had more top-3 finishes or top-8 weekly finishes than Allen did a season ago
That's why he's deserving of being the first quarterback drafted across all formats. Because even after taking a slight step back as a passer in 2021 - 104.9 passer rating vs. 97.9 passer rating - a higher passing touchdown ceiling exists for Allen in 2022. His 5.6% TD rate was worse than in 2020 and ranked just ninth in 2021. Case in point: despite finishing No. 1 overall, Allen ended with the 5th-most fantasy points under expectation. |
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27.
Tyreek Hill
WR - MIA (vs . NYJ)
Heading into 2021, Tyreek Hill was a consensus top-three receiver option. But he came in slightly under expectations. The 'Cheetah' wrapped a bow on the year as the WR6 overall and in points per game (14.2).
It's worth noting that Hill posted a career-low in yards after the catch per reception (4.3, 42nd) and yards per route run (2.14, 11th). Hill's aDOT also dipped dramatically to 10.6, which was the lowest it's been since his rookie season. And It's undeniable that going from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa is a massive downgrade for Hill. Tagovailoa has yet to show that he can properly fuel a fantasy WR1, so it's hard to expect Hill to deliver a top-5 season with a lesser passer. Especially with Tagovailoa's lack of a confident deep ball, a prominent running game, and Jaylen Waddle also heavily involved in the offensive game plan. Sure, Hill will have his weeks when he is peppered with low-value targets in PPR formats, but the massive downfield touchdowns will happen much less frequently. |
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28.
Tee Higgins
WR - CIN (vs . BAL)
Tee Higgins' 23% target rate per route run was higher than Ja'Marr Chase's 21% during the 2021 regular season as was his 25% target share in the games they played together when healthy.
There's no denying that WR1 overall upside exists with Chase in 2022, but Higgins' constant command of targets in a loaded Cincinnati offense will make him a screaming value in 2022 fantasy drafts. |
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29.
Kyle Pitts
TE - ATL (vs . TB)
If Kyle Pitts' ADP is lower than it was in 2021, he will be a screaming value. At just 21 years old, Pitts finished third among tight ends in receiving yards (1,018) through 17 weeks of the season and third in route participation (80%) through 18 weeks.
The rookie fell short of lofty preseason expectations, though, as he scored just one touchdown. Any other pass-catcher that compiled at least 1,000 receiving yards caught at least four touchdowns. And per PFF's expected fantasy points model, the Falcons tight end should have scored 5.6 touchdowns. With positive regression for Year 2 in his favor, draft the uber-talented Pitts aggressively everywhere in 2022. |
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30.
Antonio Gibson
RB - WAS (vs . DAL)
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31.
Cam Akers
RB - LAR (at SEA)
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32.
David Montgomery
RB - CHI (vs . MIN)
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33.
Keenan Allen
WR - LAC (at DEN)
The 2021 season represented the latest installment of Keenan Allen just being straight a baller and one of the most perennially underrated wide receivers in the NFL. He caught 100-plus passes for the fifth straight season and finished as the WR14 overall and in fantasy points per game (12.8).
The Chargers slot receiver remained Justin Herbert's go-to option as his 17th-ranked 22% target share led the Chargers. But it's worth noting that Mike Williams out-scored Allen in half-point scoring in the season's totality, and that Allen posted his lowest yards per route run (1.78) since 2014. |
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34.
DK Metcalf
WR - SEA (vs . LAR)
The difference between having Geno Smith/Drew Lock at quarterback versus Russell Wilson cannot be overstated enough. It's a horrible situation to be in and puts D.K. Metcalf in a tough spot.
Although the alpha wideout did rise to occasion under a small sample size last season, averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game (15th - same as his final season-long standing) without Wilson at quarterback for three games. But I am suspect that removing their quarterback that led the NFL in yards per attempt (10.4), passer rating (133.6) and passer rating from a clean pocket (130.9) before his finger injury is going to create a much larger impact over a 17-game sample size. |
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35.
Ezekiel Elliott
RB - DAL (at WAS)
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36.
Saquon Barkley
RB - NYG (at PHI)
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37.
Michael Pittman Jr.
WR - IND (vs . HOU)
Pittman got the true WR1 treatment from the Colts coaching staff in 2021, running a route on 96% of offensive dropbacks - third to only Cooper Kupp (WR1) and Ja'Marr Chase (WR4) through 17 weeks. He also finished the season tied for the league's eighth-highest target share (24%), which was 11 percentage points higher than the next closest Colt, Zach Pascal, at 13%.
He also made 18 highlight-reel contested catches - fourth most in the NFL. And his 31% target share from Weeks 13-18 cemented his place in Indy's WR1 chair heading into 2022. With Matt Ryan under center Pittman has the volume potential to be a top-12 fantasy option. Ryan has a history of fueling top-end fantasy WRs like Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, making a top-five finish not all that crazy for Big Mike in 2022. Don't forget that last season, Ridley as the Falcons' No. 1 receiver owned the sixth-highest target rate per route run and ranked second among all wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (16.5). |
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38.
Diontae Johnson
WR - PIT (vs . CLE)
The ADP market believes that Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett can take the Steelers to the fantasy promised land. I am not as optimistic.
The best-case scenario for the Steelers' No. 1 wide receiver is seeing a boatload of targets - albeit inefficient like last season when he ranked second in that category - to deliver for fantasy. Whether it's Trubisky or the rookie under center, that is the reality with DJ. Let's not forget that last year's heavily-coveted rookie quarterback class produced almost zero reliable options outside of Brandin Cooks (WR20), Jakobi Meyers (WR33) and Kendrick Bourne (WR30). So with a top-15 early best ball ADP in an offense with more competition for targets between Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth, George Pickens and Calvin Austin III, I would need Johnson to fall significantly in drafts before selecting him. |
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39.
George Kittle
TE - SF (vs . ARI)
Even though George Kittle didn't feel like a great investment as an early round selection in 2021 fantasy drafts, there's no denying his finish as the TE3 in both overall points and points per game (15.0) despite playing just 13 games.
The 49ers tight end finished as PFF's highest-graded tight end (91.2) and repeated as the leader in yards per route run (2.35) among all tight ends for the fourth consecutive season. |
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40.
DJ Moore
WR - CAR (at NO)
There's no denying D.J. Moore's talent or elite usage for the Carolina Panthers. He was just one of 11 WRs to run a route on at least 90% of their team's dropbacks to go along with a top-three air yards share (36%) and seventh-ranked target rate per route run (25%).
Most wideouts that own this usage are no-doubt top-12 fantasy options, but Moore's abysmal quarterback play continues to hold him back. He only finished as the WR19 last season in half-point scoring, as his QB play was graded out as the stone worst in the NFL per PFF. |
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41.
Breece Hall
RB - NYJ (at MIA)
My highest-ranked rookie running back is Breece Hall. The Jets selected the Iowa State product at the top of Round 2, signifying his status as the team's locked-in RB1 for the foreseeable future. Hall's three-down skill set suggests he never has to come off the field, and the sheer volume he garners will vault him into redraft top-20 running back territory.
The Iowa State product totaled over 4,500 yards from scrimmage, 50 touchdowns and 80 catches over three seasons in the college ranks. A workload of approximately 240 touches - based on ESPN fantasy analyst Mike Clay's projections and how many touches the cumulative Jets RB1 earned last season - would place Hall inside the top-15 considering every running back last season that hit that threshold finished inside that ranking. 2021 fourth-rounder Michael Carter had his moments as a rookie, but the Jets know he's just a No. 2 running back. Anticipate Hall to shoulder 15-20 touches per game based on the workload that Carter received last season when Tevin Coleman missed time. From Weeks 7-9 with Coleman sidelined, Carter averaged 19 touches per game and a 66% snap share. Upon Coleman's return from injury in Week 10, Carter averaged 14 touches per game and a 55% snap share in the games they played together. |
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42.
Jaylen Waddle
WR - MIA (vs . NYJ)
Jaylen Waddle looked primed to make the leap into the top-12 conversation after a stellar rookie season. Along with breaking Anquan Boldin's rookie reception record, Waddle commanded a 22% target share and 24% target rate per route run - 18th-best in the NFL.
But with the expensive addition of veteran Tyreek Hill, it is less likely that Waddle is the clear-cut No. 1 receiver in Miami. Hill is coming off a season where he commanded the league's seventh-highest target rate per route run (27%). The trade moves Waddle down from a fringe WR1 to mid-range fantasy WR2 after seeing almost zero target competition last season. |
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43.
Terry McLaurin
WR - WAS (vs . DAL)
Terry McLaurin got the WR1 treatment for Washington in 2021. He ran a route on 91% of offensive dropbacks and finished second in the NFL in air yards share behind only Justin Jefferson (37%).
But the horrible quarterback play in the nation's capital limited McLaurin's fantasy production to fantasy WR25 status. Many will point to new Washington quarterback Carson Wentz as just another retread of bad quarterback play coming TMC's way, but I am much more optimistic. The former No. 2 overall pick has a proven track record of sustaining fantasy viable weapons - most notably Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. from a season ago. His 27 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions and 67.9 PFF passing grade are miles better than Washington's 20 passing touchdowns, 15 interceptions and 58.3 PFF passing grade in 2021. |
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44.
Amari Cooper
WR - CLE (at PIT)
Amari Cooper finished last season 27th in half-PPR per game (11.2), which was in line with his career average.
There is hope that he can provide a higher floor as the clear No. 1 wide receiver in Cleveland. And that floor will be accompanied by an extremely high ceiling with Deshaun Watson entrenched under center. The ex-Texans quarterback fueled top fantasy WR finishes for the likes of Brandin Cooks (WR16, 2020) and Will Fuller (WR8/game, 2020) the last time he played. And prior to that, he supplemented DeAndre Hopkins as the fantasy WR4 and WR10 from 2018-2019. |
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45.
Josh Jacobs
RB - LV (vs . KC)
The Raiders offense looks to reach new heights in 2022 with No. 1 wide receiver Davante Adams added to the fold. And that greatly benefits the team's lead ball-carrier Josh Jacobs. A more efficient offense lends itself to more scoring opportunities, and Jacobs will reap the most rewards as the team's primary red-zone back.
Last year's RB13 smashed career highs in all receiving categories in 2021 despite playing alongside Kenyan Drake and Jalen Richard. Injuries to the back-ups boosted Jacobs' role as a receiver slightly, but it was not the only cause. There was a deliberate effort to feature Jacobs more as a receiver with him catching at least two passes in 12 of his 15 games played. And more importantly, the receiving capability that Jacobs displayed puts to rest the narrative that he is "game-script" dependent. Whether the Raiders are winning or losing in a loaded 2022 AFC West, JJ has proven he can be used in all facets. Now the Raiders did elect to sign both Brandon Bolden and Ameer Abdullah this offseason to bolster their running back stable behind Jacobs. Bolden has been a special teams guy nearly his entire career, so I doubt he carves out any legitimate role on offense. Abdullah has been used as a third-down back on the several teams he has been on at the NFL level, but I am not ready to declare him as a huge threat to Jacobs' workload. Sure he might work in some, but not enough to hurt Jacobs' bottom-line value. The team also drafted Zamir White in the fourth round, but I would not expect much from White in year one based on Josh McDaniels' track record from New England of not featuring Day 3 rookie RBs. The new head coach is more likely to run Jacobs into the ground on an expiring contract as he did with Dion Lewis, LeGarrette Blount and Shane Vereen during his Patriots tenure. And besides, the red-zone role is the most significant for fantasy points, and that looks to be clearly in Jacobs' grasp. Two-down back Damien Harris was in the red-zone role for the Patriots last season and flourished because of it. He ranked fourth in carries (46) and third in rushing TDs (13) from inside the 20-yard line. |
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46.
Elijah Mitchell
RB - SF (vs . ARI)
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47.
J.K. Dobbins
RB - BAL (at CIN)
Running backs tied to a mobile quarterback are often short-changed when it comes to the passing game. For as well as J.K. Dobbins performed in fantasy football from Weeks 11-17 in full PPR (RB11) during the 2020 season, guess who outscored him... J.D. McKissic. That's because McKissic caught 37 passes versus Dobbins' three.
Guys like Derrick Henry can overcome the lack of receiving work because they are entrenched bell cows, but that's not the case with Dobbins in Baltimore with Gus Edwards also in the mix. Dobbins only slightly out-touched Edwards 86-74 down the stretch in 2020. It would be pure ignorance to assume that Dobbins will take over the backfield considering Edwards has been excellent with every opportunity he has received. Dobbins also ran extremely hot when it came to scoring touchdowns, scoring at least one TD in every game from Week 11 on. His nine total rushing TDs ranked 12th in the league and nearly doubled his expected output (5.5, 30th) - the sixth-highest difference at the position. Drafters have to understand that to invest in Dobbins as a late third-rounder or fourth-rounder (RB20, 50th overall ADP) he needs to run hot in the TD category coming off the season-ending ACL injury. They also should expect zero-to-little pass-game work with Jackson's tendency to not check down along with the additions of receiving backs, veteran Mike Davis and rookie Tyler Badie. |
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48.
Justin Herbert
QB - LAC (at DEN)
Justin Herbert finished third in touchdowns and fifth in PFF passing grade (91.8) from a clean pocket in 2021. The Bolts quarterback also wrapped up the season as PFF's third-highest-graded quarterback overall, third in fantasy points per game (22.7) and fifth in expected fantasy points per game (21.7)
The Los Angeles Chargers signal-caller is a certified stud - a top-five, elite-tier fantasy quarterback in 2022. Only Tom Brady and Josh Allen posted as many top-5 weeks as Herbert did last season. He and Brady led the NFL with nine 300-yard passing games. Since entering the NFL in 2020, Herbert has thrown for 300-plus yards in 53% of his games played. Even if his rushing doesn't stack up with the league's elite, Herbert's cannon provides almost everything he needs to close the gap. |
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49.
Patrick Mahomes II
QB - KC (at LV)
Despite the ups-and-downs of the KC Chiefs offense as a response to the Cover 2 defense, Patrick Mahomes was as a stellar as ever from a fantasy perspective. The former MVP ranked fourth in fantasy points per game (22.0) tying Justin Herbert with 12 weekly top-12 QB finishes. Still, Mahomes averaged fewer fantasy points per game than in 2020 (25.2).
Additionally, the loss of Tyreek Hill cannot be ignored heading into 2022. The duo ranks second in combined passing touchdowns (41) since 2016 - despite Mahomes not becoming the starter until the 2018. Mahomes can't totally be written off as a top-five fantasy option - .QB4 without Hill through the first five weeks of 2019 averaging 25 fantasy points per game - but there's real concern about his top-tier weekly ceiling without Hill. Especially coming off a season where he posted a career-low PFF passing grade (77.5) and career-high in interceptions (16). He's likely being overvalued as the QB2 in early best ball drafts on name recognition alone. |
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50.
Courtland Sutton
WR - DEN (vs . LAC)
Entering Year 3, it looked like Courtland Sutton was on the cusp of true elite fantasy WR1 production, but his 2020 season was lost due to a torn ACL in Week 2. It was unclear how productive Sutton would be returning from the devastating knee injury.
But to start the 2021 season, the Broncos wide receiver looked like his old self. He averaged 13.8 fantasy points per game (17th) and had a 27% target share in Weeks 2-7 during the regular season. It wasn't until Jerry Jeudy's return from injury that Sutton - and the rest of the Broncos pass catchers - became obsolete in a crowded, run-heavy offense led by a combination of Lock/Teddy Bridgewater. Nevertheless, Sutton finished the season as the fantasy WR46. However, even in the anemic offense, Sutton still finished seventh in air yards (1,756), cemented in between Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, in 2021. Sutton has a real chance to recapture his elite form another year removed from his ACL injury. It also helps substantially that he has received an ultra upgrade at the quarterback position with Denver's trade for Russell Wilson. Wilson has always been an elite downfield passer - he had the sixth-highest passer rating on throws of 20-plus air yards last season - which plays heavily into Sutton's strengths as a vertical threat. |
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51.
Darren Waller
TE - LV (vs . KC)
There's bound to be some hesitancy about drafting tight ends early after guys like George Kittle, Darren Waller, Kyle Pitts, T.J. Hockenson and Logan Thomas failed to live up to their lofty projections (due to injury or not).
But the process was still sound behind adding some of those players in the early rounds if you look at their per-game production. Speaking to Waller, the Raiders tight end came in third in expected fantasy points per game (14.6), which ranked top-20 among all tight ends and wide receivers. He also ranked sixth in points per game (12.1) and second in targets per game (8.5) The major concern with Waller in 2022 is how much Davante Adams will eat into his targets. However, I'd focus more on valuing Waller based on how good the Raiders offense as a whole can be with the addition of Adams. I'd be willing to forego one or fewer targets per game for Waller, if it means more scoring opportunities. The big-bodied Black Hole tight end is primed for positive touchdown regression after converting just two of his 10 end-zone targets into touchdowns in 2021. |
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52.
Mike Williams
WR - LAC (at DEN)
Mike Williams had the opportunity to take his talents elsewhere this offseason in free agency, but decided to stay in Los Angeles with quarterback Justin Herbert. Hard to argue with the choice to sign a three-year deal worth $60M attached to a young superstar quarterback, especially when that quarterback fueled a career-year.
He stormed out the gate in 2021 as the WR2 in fantasy through the first five weeks of the season, averaging 94.2 receiving yards and 1.2 receiving touchdowns per game. Big Mike finished the season as the WR23 in fantasy points per game despite cooling off considerably in the later weeks in addition to leaving a boatload of touchdown production on the table. He finished sixth in end-zone targets (16) but caught only five for touchdowns. With positive TD regression on his side, Williams looks like a sneaky candidate to repeat his WR12 overall finish in the half-point scoring format. |
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53.
Brandin Cooks
WR - HOU (at IND)
Brandin Cooks has finished worse than the fantasy WR20 only once since 2015, and that was due to injury. He has eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards six times with four different teams during that span.
At just 28 years old, Cooks shows little signs of slowing down. Last season, he was a target and air yards hog, finishing fourth in air yards share (36%) and ninth in target share (24%). And during the final four games of the season with Davis Mills at quarterback, Cooks was top-10 in fantasy points per game (15.0) to go along with a top-5 target rate per route run (33%). |
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54.
Jerry Jeudy
WR - DEN (vs . LAC)
Entering Year 3, Jerry Jeudy finally has a quarterback who can take full advantage of his ability to separate from defenders - 96th percentile separation percentage in 2021 - with Russell Wilson taking the reins.
With Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick operating from the outside, Jeudy figures to become Wilson's go-to target in the slot unless K.J. Hamler pushes him out. Jeudy's efficiency metrics should also see a massive boost now that he's catching passes from a future Hall-of-Fame quarterback, but it remains to be seen if Jeudy will play an ancillary role as a red-zone threat. Upgrading from Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater to Wilson is great for Jeudy, but we have to remember that he is still an unproven fantasy commodity. Great route-running and separation skills aside, he hasn't scored many fantasy points the last two seasons. And that's not the case with every Denver receiver, because Patrick's production last two seasons earned him a three-year, $34.5 million contract extension. Even so, Jeudy should easily experience his best NFL season to date in 2022, but it may not be as great as some die-hard Jeudy stans would care to admit. There are a lot of weapons in Denver, and predicting Wilson's best option on a week-to-week basis was often a challenge when it was only between DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. As with those Seahawks receivers, there are going to be inconsistent weeks from Jeudy. And his lack of red-zone usage makes him more susceptible to bust games without having a touchdown opportunity to fall back on. |
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55.
Lamar Jackson
QB - BAL (at CIN)
Lamar Jackson had a season to forget in 2021, as he dealt with a plethora of injuries/illnesses and regressed immensely as a passer. Two key metrics at PFF that are important to analyze for QBs are performance in a clean pocket and throwing at the intermediate level.
Jackson ranked 28th in passer rating from a clean pocket (90.4) and 22nd in PFF passing grade at the intermediate level (70.0). Despite all his shortcomings as a passer, Jackson still finished the season second in expected fantasy points per game (23.8) and seventh in fantasy points per game (21.3). His expected fantasy point per game output marked the highest of his career thanks to the Ravens' willingness to throw more in 2021. From 2019-2020, Jackson had 37 or more passing attempts in a game only four times. He did so five times in 2021, with Baltimore throwing at a 60% clip. However, I would not anticipate the pass-heavy approach to continue into 2022. Their philosophical change on offense was forced out of necessity based on the injuries. But a lack of passing doesn't impact Jackson they way it does most other QBs with his greatest fantasy asset being his legs. Jackson may never recapture his 2019 rare MVP form when he averaged north of 28 fantasy points per game, but a 22-point per game average seems like his norm based on his last two years of fantasy production. In 2020, he led all QBs in fantasy points per dropback. That cements him as a clear-cut top-5 fantasy QB. |
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56.
Damien Harris
RB - NE (at BUF)
Damien Harris' ADP has dropped nearly a full round since the NFL draft took place and it's unwarranted. All the Patriots did was draft two Day 3 running backs who will most likely be red-shirted their first seasons.
Harris should be the bellcow back for the Patriots in the final year of his contract as has been the case for many New England backs playing on expiring contracts. And should he see a heavy workload, there's going to be fantasy points to come by. In 2021, Harris finished 2nd in carries inside the 10-yd line, second to only Jonathan Taylor. The former Alabama back also led all running backs during the 2021 regular season in fantasy points per snap. As PFF's highest-graded running back (91.8) over the past two seasons, Harris needs to be held in extremely high regard. With one more year on his rookie deal, New England has all the incentive to ride Harris for the entire 2022 season. |
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57.
Chris Godwin
WR - TB (at ATL)
Chris Godwin ranked second in receptions (92, career-high) and eighth in fantasy points per game (18.1) while leading Tampa Bay with a 21% target share through Week 14.
Once deemed healthy, it's hard to envision Godwin not returning top-12 fantasy value in an aggressive aerial assault led by TB12. |
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58.
Elijah Moore
WR - NYJ (at MIA)
Elijah Moore ranked as the fantasy WR2 over his last stretch of six games played.
His 16.1 fantasy points per game would have ranked fifth had he continued the production the remainder of the season. Unfortunately his season was cut short due to injuries and COVID-19 implications. The addition of Garrett Wilson makes Moore's second-year ascension less certain as he did not have much target competition during his scorching finish outside of veteran Jamison Crowder. |
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59.
Darnell Mooney
WR - CHI (vs . MIN)
Darnell Mooney is already a star in the making. The third-year receiver looks primed to cement himself as the Chicago Bears' true No. 1 wide receiver. He already operated as the team's No. 1 for most of the 2021 season, ranking as the WR27 in half-point fantasy scoring through 17 weeks. Mooney also finished the last four weeks of the season ninth in target share (27%) and fifth in route participation (95%).
With nobody worth much outside of third-year tight end Cole Kmet as legitimate competition, Mooney should build off his 8th-ranked 24% target share from last season. Byron Pringle, Equanimeous St. Brown and 25-year-old rookie Velus Jones Jr. should only encourage targeting the 24-year-old Mooney in 2022 drafts. |
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60.
Travis Etienne Jr.
RB - JAC (vs . TEN)
Travis Etienne Jr. was a standout college football running back for the Clemson Tigers from 2017 to 2020 and was selected by the Jaguars in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft -25th overall. However, his rookie season was cut short by a preseason Lisfranc injury. Some NFL personnel reported that Etienne could have come back towards the end of the year had the Jaguars been in playoff contention instead of being the league's laughing stock.
Etienne is expected to be fully cleared by training camp, giving him a leg up on the RB1 role as the Jacksonville Jaguars install a new offense under new head coach Doug Pederson. With James Robinson attempting to come back from a torn Achilles injury suffered on December 26th, Etienne figures to be the featured back during this spring/summer. Do not forget what this guy did at Clemson with Trevor Lawrence (QB - JAC) as his quarterback. During his final season as a Clemson Tiger, he led the country in receiving yards and ranked second in receptions among running backs. Etienne also racked up the most rushing attempts of 20-plus yards (40) from 2018 to 2019 while only carrying the ball 20-plus times once since 2018. |
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61.
Marquise Brown
WR - ARI (at SF)
Marquise Brown seems slated for a massive target share in the Arizona Cardinals' pass-heavy offense.
Brown posted a top-12 target share last season (23%) with Baltimore. The speedy wideout also commanded a whopping 27% target share back in 2018 at Oklahoma - the last time he played with Murray. Christian Kirk was WR12 during the last four weeks without Hopkins in the lineup. The Cardinals paid a premium to acquire Brown, so fantasy managers should expect them to use him plenty. Brace yourself for Brown to skyrocket up 2022 best-ball rankings as a top-20 fantasy WR option. |
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62.
Michael Thomas
WR - NO (vs . CAR)
When Thomas was healthy in 2020 from Weeks 11-14, he commanded a 33% target share, earned a 90.5 PFF receiving grade and averaged an elite 2.86 yards per route run - a mark that bested his career average (2.45).
With Thomas now readily available after Round 4, he's the quintessential middle-round WR that could make the massive leap back atop the fantasy leaderboards. |
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63.
AJ Dillon
RB - GB (vs . DET)
A.J. Dillon been the epitome of efficiency since entering the NFL. He is PFF's fifth-highest-graded running back (90.1).
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64.
Allen Robinson II
WR - LAR (at SEA)
Before Robert Woods hit the IR, he was the WR17 in half-PPR scoring per game. Van Jefferson saw elite usage playing on every down as the No. 3 receiver but didn't follow up his playing time with any worthwhile production. Jefferson was WR35 overall on the season and outside the top 40 in points per game despite a top-tier 86% route participation.
The likely scenario for Allen Robinson is that he steps up into the No. 2 role behind Cooper Kupp and operates the way Woods started the year and/or by how Odell Beckham Jr. ended the season. Down the playoff stretch, Beckham Jr. averaged a 19% target share and 12.4 fantasy points per game from Week 12 through the divisional round (fantasy WR2). |
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65.
Kyler Murray
QB - ARI (at SF)
DeAndre Hopkins is being suspended six games for violating the NFL's Performance Enhancing Drug policy. This penalty has massive fantasy football repercussions for the Arizona Cardinals offense starting with quarterback Kyler Murray.
Murray's production dipped last season without Hopkins in the lineup over the final four weeks of the season. He averaged 18.8 fantasy points per game and 6.3 yards per pass attempt. Murray averaged 24.9 fantasy points per game and 8.7 yards per attempt in the nine games with Hopkins fully healthy. He also posted the No. 1-ranked PFF passing grade (90.5). Losing Hopkins for six games cannot be ignored, but the addition of Marquise Brown figures to make up for some of the lost production. |
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66.
Joe Burrow
QB - CIN (vs . BAL)
Joe Burrow finished the regular season as PFF's highest-graded passer (91.2) while also ranking first in super sticky stats like passing grade from a clean pocket (94.6) and passing grade throwing at the intermediate level (95.6). He finished the season as the QB8 averaging just north of 20.5 fantasy points per game.
The Bengals quarterback has undoubtedly entered the conversation as one of the league's best real-life NFL passers, but might be slightly overvalued based on early best ball ADP with impending regression. He's the QB6 despite finishing as a top-6 fantasy quarterback just thrice in 2021. No quarterback scored more fantasy points over expectation, which hints that regression will hit Burrow in 2022. The LSU product also rushed for just 118 yards and two TDs. He rushed for fewer yards than Mac Jones, who is notorious for being ranked low across consensus due to his lack of upside as a rusher. However, there is a legitimate path for Burrow's upside to be further unlocked if the Bengals increase their pass rate as they did during his rookie season and down the playoff stretch. Burrow led the NFL in passing attempts per game (40.4) during his rookie season and averaged 38 passing attempts/23.0 fantasy points per game in his final six weeks An uptick in passing volume won't help Burrow's efficiency per se, but his fantasy numbers will be much more stable from week to week. Also can't forget to mention the Bengals revamped their offensive line as they look to not let their franchise quarterback get sacked 70 times - 22 more than the next closest quarterback. |
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67.
Dallas Goedert
TE - PHI (vs . NYG)
It took much longer than many fantasy gamers would have liked, but Dallas Goedert finally broke out in 2021 after being overshadowed by Zach Ertz since his rookie year. The Eagles tight end finished as PFF's second-highest graded receiving tight end (91.1) and as the TE10 overall, with the majority of his fantasy production coming from Week 7 onward. In those 11 games played - including postseason - Goedert averaged 11.8 fantasy points per game, which would have ranked as the TE8 from a season-long perspective.
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68.
Miles Sanders
RB - PHI (vs . NYG)
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69.
T.J. Hockenson
TE - DET (at GB)
T.J. Hockenson's season cut short by injuries has left a bitter taste in fantasy football managers' mouths. But the hate is unwarranted, as Hockenson was well on his way to a career year with the Lions. Through 13 weeks, the Detriot Lions tight end ranked sixth in points per game, fifth in targets per game (7), first in route participation (85%), third in target share (19%) and third in air yard share.
Averaging over one more fantasy point from the year prior, Hockenson fits the mold as a post-hype sleeper after he failed to truly break out in 2021. |
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70.
DeVonta Smith
WR - PHI (vs . NYG)
DeVonta Smith didn't have the record-breaking rookie seasons like Ja'Marr Chase or Jaylen Waddle, but he was still extremely solid. He finished 10th in overall team air yards share and top-20 in PFF receiving grade among WRs with at least 100 targets.
So Smith's WR29 finish and WR42 standing in points per game hardly does the rookie justice while playing in a run-heavy offensive attack. From Week 7 onward, Smith never saw more than six targets in any game. I don't necessarily believe that Smith's targets per game will increase substantially after the team added A.J. Brown this offseason; that puts Smith firmly in the fantasy WR3 tier. |
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71.
Gabriel Davis
WR - BUF (vs . NE)
Gabriel Davis averaged 19.8 fantasy points per game (PPR) and 16.0 expected fantasy points per game in his last six games while running a route on 88% of dropbacks as the Bills finally emphasized his playing time in the offense.
As a strong bet to earn the No. 2 wide receiver job come opening day, Davis has a legitimate shot to be a reliable fantasy option in a Josh Allen-led offense in 2022. |
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72.
DeAndre Hopkins
WR - ARI (at SF)
DeAndre Hopkins is being suspended six games for violating the NFL's Performance Enhancing Drug policy.
The alpha WR falls into the WR3/4 range for redraft purposes. He won't fall as much in best-ball based on the format, but it's hard to imagine drafting Hopkins over Marquise Brown with the six-game suspension baked in. |
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73.
Jalen Hurts
QB - PHI (vs . NYG)
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is easily the biggest winner as A.J. Brown's absurd efficiency and YAC-ability in Tennessee was a primary driving force behind Ryan Tannehill's fantasy success as a Titan. Hurts is an easy top-eight fantasy quarterback next season with top-five status well within reach. The Eagles ranked second in screen rate a season ago, so anticipate plenty of plays where Hurts just dumps the ball off to AJB for massive chunk gains. Brown finished fourth in yards per route run last season (2.72) despite battling injuries throughout the season.
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74.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR - DET (at GB)
Amon-Ra St. Brown cannot be denied. The Day 3 rookie silenced the doubters with an incredible hot streak down the stretch for the Detroit Lions commanding a 33% target share - 11 targets per game - en route to a WR3 PPR finish from Weeks 13-18.
But the elite late-season production comes with the caveat that De'Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson were not healthy. Before their injuries, ASB was an essential non-factor outside a stretch from Weeks 4-6 where he commanded a 22% target share. The Lions' rookie wide receiver was an extreme outlier as he not only finished top-50 but 21st overall; that almost never happens with fourth-round picks. The path for upside St. Brown showed last season is what we should be pursuing, but be mindful that it will likely take more injuries with first-round pick Jameson Williams and veteran D.J. Chark added to the roster this offseason. |
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75.
Tyler Lockett
WR - SEA (vs . LAR)
I can't cultivate a likely scenario where the Seattle Seahawks wide receiver accrues any type of worthwhile fantasy value in 2021.
He is turning 30 years old this season and finds him in a situation with Geno Smith/Drew Lock at quarterback. Lockett's infamous for his roller coaster production - four top-5 finishes, seven outside the top-36 in 2021 - and I expect no less based on his current situation in 2022. The major difference being the bad games will be more frequent than ever with the massive QB downgrade. Lockett averaged just 9.0 fantasy points per game (47th) without Wilson last season. With Lockett competing for targets alongside Metcalf in a run-heavy offense, he looks like a straight-up fade unless his ADP falls dramatically. |
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76.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
RB - KC (at LV)
Although Clyde Edwards-Helaire's rookie season showed signs of hope - RB11 through his first six professional games - the step backward in Year 2 is cause for concern.
CEH finished 59th out of 64 qualifying running backs in yards after contact per attempt (2.4) and third-to-last in target rate per route run at the running back position (13%). The poor rushing efficiency is bearable, but the poor receiving usage is hard to ignore. Especially considering his calling card out of LSU was catching balls out of the backfield. His 0.73 yards per route run ranked 64th out of 68 qualifying running backs - also significantly worse than his teammates Darrel Williams (1.28) and Jerick McKinnon (1.15). Some may also feel that the Ronald Jones addition is the final nail in the coffin for CEH, but it's not that black and white. Don't get me wrong though - Jones is a significant threat to earn more carries than Edwards-Helaire after the former first-rounder posted worse rushing efficiency numbers than his rookie season. But full transparency - Jones was not much better ranking 51st in the same category (2.5). It's actually a positive sign for Edwards-Helaire that the team brought in Jones instead of re-signing McKinnon or Williams. Those ex-Chiefs backs were proven pass-catchers and limited CEH's role as a receiver. I'd presume that Edwards-Helaire will fully take over the primary pass-catching role - which was the reason why the Chiefs drafted him in the 1st round in any way - while also working in tandem with Jones as a rusher on early downs. Jones splitting work might also help keep CEH healthy after his 10 missed games the past two seasons. The other RBs on the Chiefs current roster include Derrick Gore (4th-year UDFA), Isiah Pacheco (2022 7th-rounder), Jerrion Ealy (2022 UDFA) and Tayon Fleet-Davis (2022 UDFA). |
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77.
Rashod Bateman
WR - BAL (at CIN)
The Baltimore Ravens traded Marquise Brown to the Arizona Cardinals this offseason, opening the WR1 role on offense. Bateman has the opportunity to step in and be the true No. 1 wide receiver for Lamar Jackson (QB - BAL) in 2022 and beyond.
With Brown's 23% target share departure, Bateman can seize a massive role for fantasy as a high-end WR2. 2022 is Shoddy B breakout SZN. |
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78.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR - KC (at LV)
It always seemed more probable than not that JuJu Smith-Schuster would find his way to Kansas City in free agency. The Chiefs were interested in him last season, and the landing spot is perfect to revive Smith-Schuster's fantasy football value. He's just one year removed from a WR17 finish in PPR between two injury-plagued seasons.
Let's not forget JuJu had an elite sophomore campaign - 1,400-plus receiving yards - and he is still just 25 years old. With the most vacated targets available in Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes his new quarterback, 2022 will be a return to form for Smith-Schuster. He can operate from his natural position in the slot and benefit from the playmakers around him. After all, Smith-Schuster was at his best as a Pittsburgh Steeler during his first two seasons playing opposite of Antonio Brown. |
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79.
Adam Thielen
WR - MIN (at CHI)
The 32-year old wideout has made his hay in fantasy because of his "ability" to find the end zone 24 times since the start of 2020, but it's something that just isn't sustainable in the long term. Based on Thielen's targets and yardage totals, his total TD number should be closer to 16.
Justin Jefferson is an ascending rocketship that will only see his TDs rise entering Year 3, most likely coming at the detriment of Thielen. Not to mention, AT's age may finally be catching up to him after he posted his lowest PFF receiving grade and yards per route run since he first became a starter back in 2016. |
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80.
Ken Walker III
RB - SEA (vs . LAR)
Kenneth Walker III made a massive splash upon transferring to Michigan State in 2021, leading his class in rushing yards (1,634), missed forced tackles (89) and explosive runs (46) en route to winning the Doak Walker Award - an honor bestowed upon college football's best running back.
His success earned him a 34% dominator rating, which considers the number of touchdowns and receiving yards a player commands within their offense. The number is solid considering Walker commanded just a 4% target share in his junior year, catching 13 passes for 80 receiving yards. His massive accomplishments this past season were inevitable after he rushed for 13 touchdowns as PFF's 15th-best graded running back in 2020 as a sophomore at Wake. With the second-most missed tackles forced over the past two seasons - trailing only Iowa State's Breece Hall - and third-most rushing yards after contact, Walker possesses the groundwork to be an effective rusher at the next level. Breaking tackles and creating after contact in college translates to the pros extremely well, as seen most recently by Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams. Williams led the nation in missed tackle rate (48%) in his final season at North Carolina and would go on to lead the NFL in the same metric at the conclusion of his stellar rookie season. Elusiveness is just one trait Walker has in common with Williams, as both skipped their senior years to enter the draft. Declaring early is a positive sign for a running back in dynasty formats, as they save themselves from another year of wear and tear. The lack of work in the passing game is really the only major blemish on Walker's prospect profile because his testing at the NFL scouting combine was also exceptional. He weighed in at 211 pounds and ran a 4.38 40-yard dash (96th percentile). "The player I am avoiding is running back Kenneth Walker III. With a rookie draft ADP in the top-3, it's just too steep a price to pay for a running back that is projected to be used heavily on early downs on an offense that easily projects to be bottom-5 in the NFL led by the unsurprising duo of Drew Lock/Geno Smith at quarterback. Even if Walker can carve out a first-year workload similar to that of Chris Carson circa 2020 - 16.4 touches per game, 56% snaps share when healthy - it's still going to be a massive uphill battle for him to be a fantasy producer in Year 1. Pete Carroll has a stable of backs including Rashaad Penny, Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas who all figure to work in at some point despite Walker's Round 2 draft capital. Again, even when Carson was the RB1, he was splitting snaps. Penny was brought back on a one-year deal for $5 million (12tth-highest cap hit), Chris Carson - if healthy - is due $6.1 million (10th-highest cap hit) and Homer/Dallas have routinely worked as pass-catchers out of the backfield. Seattle also finished dead-last in targets to the RB position last season, creating serious doubt that Walker will be used in that fashion in any capacity as a rookie. Part of that is on Russell Wilson's lack of juice in the screen game, but the offense itself doesn't predicate much RB pass-game usage. Geno Smith posted a meager 12% RB target rate (three per game) in his three starts last season. Drew Lock was at 17%. The Seahawks have the chance to be a running back by committee and dumpster fire on offense this season for all the reasons I've laid out, which is why I am adamantly against paying the premium for Walker. If this team falls behind in games, there's no telling which RB will even be on the field. I feel so much better about going with one of the many rookie WRs selected in Round 1 ahead of Walker based on his landing spot. Hopefully, opportunities should open in this backfield in Year 2 for Walker with Penny likely leaving in free agency. But does he get replaced with another Day 2 running back? Will Seattle's offense even be efficient in 2023 and beyond? So much uncertainty with this entire situation has me hesitant. |
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81.
Dalton Schultz
TE - DAL (at WAS)
Coming off a stellar season as PFF's sixth-highest-graded tight end (78.2), Dallas placed the franchise tag on Dalton Schultz off the career season and released veteran Blake Jarwin.
Big D's No. 1 tight end wrapped up the 2021 season sixth in route participation (77%) and third in overall routes run (586). The highly-coveted role within the constrains of a high-powered offense ensures that Schultz will be in the back-end fantasy TE1 conversation for the third straight season. Only Darren Waller, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews have scored more fantasy points at the tight end position since the start of 2020. With Dak Prescott's trust firmly in hand and Amari Cooper out the door, it's possible that Schultz builds off his ninth-ranked 16% target share entering Year 5. |
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82.
Kareem Hunt
RB - CLE (at PIT)
Kareem Hunt's been rumored to be on the trade block this offseason. His contract expires in 2023, and the Browns have a mighty stable of backs behind Nick Chubb including D'Ernest Johnson, Jerome Ford and Demetric Felton.
If no deal is reached by the time the season starts, it would be much less likely that Hunt stays in Cleveland, making him a primed trade target for any team that suffers an injury at running back through training camp/preseason. . Last year Hunt was limited to just eight games due to a calf injury - but he maintained his effectiveness when healthy through the first six weeks of the season. He was a top-10 running back in PPR averaging 17 fantasy points per game averaging just south of 15 touches per game. Hunt's true upside will always be capped in a backfield as the Robin to Chubb's Batman. But should an injury occur to Chubb or another star running back, Hunt would easily flirt with league-winning upside if he is awarded the requisite volume to do so. His 6th-ranked yards after contact per attempt (3.54), 6th-ranked yards per route run (1.81) and 26% target rate suggest he's not slowing down entering age 27-season. All he needs his a change of scenery to recapture his rookie year accolades when he lead the NFL in rushing yards. |
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83.
Dak Prescott
QB - DAL (at WAS)
Dak will be entering his age-29 season, putting him squarely in the prime of his career. He struggled at times during the second half of last season but finished with 12 TD passes and 0 INTs in his final three-regular season games. His supporting cast should be strong again, though Cowboys figure to lose WR Michael Gallup and perhaps TE Dalton Schultz in free agency. One troubling development for Dak's fantasy value: The Dallas defense has become one of the best in the league, which means fewer shootout game scripts.
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84.
Treylon Burks
WR - TEN (at JAC)
Treylon Burks finished first in his class in yards per route run (3.57) while also ranking No. 1 in yards per route run when lined up outside (6.08) among all receivers. It's an encouraging sign that a size-speed specimen delivered when aligned on the perimeter, as he spent 77% of his career in the slot.
The rookie's 8.5 yards after the catch rank 14th among 169 qualifying wide receivers (92nd percentile) over the past two seasons.His elite college production and top-notch 32% dominator rating speak for themselves. And the best part is, he should produce from Day 1 after being drafted by the Tennessee Titans in the 1st round of the NFL Draft. There's hardly any competition for targets outside of Robert Woods), who is coming off a torn ACL. And with a similar YAC-ability to A.J. Brown, Burks should be able to step on the field on day one and offer immediate fantasy football appeal as a top-30 fantasy option. |
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85.
Devin Singletary
RB - BUF (vs . NE)
Buffalo invested second round draft capital into a rookie James Cook this offseason, but that's no reason to totally write off last year's starting tailback Devin Singletary. The fourth-year back was unleashed down the stretch for the Bills, finishing as the RB3 in PPR scoring over the final six weeks of the season - 17 fantasy points per game. He gained the coaching staff's trust by earning 54-plus snaps to close out the season, the highest snap number Singletary saw all season dating back to Week 1.
Buffalo also didn't let off the Motor Singletary when the team hit the playoffs, with the RB1 averaging nearly 20 fantasy points per game from the Wild Card Round through the Divisonal Round. With a proven track record and two years of bell-cow back usage in spurts, don't be surprised when PFF's fourth-ranked running back in rushes of 15-plus yards and seventh-ranked player in forced missed tackles in 2021 is the highly sought-after RB breakout that emerges from a high-octane ambiguous backfield. |
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86.
Melvin Gordon III
RB - DEN (vs . LAC)
Gordon is bound to be written off by fantasy draft pundits this offseason due to his age, but he proved that he still has gas in the tank in 2021. The 29-year-old running back was efficient across the board, ranking eighth in both PFF rushing grade (83.4) and forced missed tackles (45) while compiling 231 touches (16th).
With him back on a high-powered offense and with the potential to receive goal-line touches, he could easily become a screaming value in 2022 like James Conner or Leonard Fournette last year. |
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87.
Russell Wilson
QB - DEN (vs . LAC)
Russell Wilson's weapons/supporting cast overall are pretty even going from Seattle to Denver, but Nathaniel Hackett calling the shots is an upgrade over Pete Carroll.
Hackett's obviously had success with Aaron Rodgers that has translated into fantasy, so a top-five fantasy quarterback outcome is firmly in play with Wilson in 2022. After all, Wilson's long track record of efficient fantasy play is undeniable - he has finished among the top-six fantasy QBs five times since 2014. I like his chances of making it seven in 2022. Because Wilson is still among the league's elite passers when healthy. Before the finger derailed his season, Russ led the NFL in yards per attempt (10.4), passer rating (133.6) and passer rating from a clean pocket (130.9) before Week 5. Wilson also finished the season on a high note, averaging over 24 fantasy points per game in his last three contests. All in all, 2021 was a typical season for Wilson: peaks and valleys. He averaged 23 fantasy points per game from Weeks 1-4 and Weeks 16-18. In his six games post-injury, Wilson averaged an abysmal 13 fantasy points per game. Buy the inevitable 2022 dip on the future Hall of Fame quarterback in a new situation. That combined with a plethora of weapons in Denver, makes it very plausible he sees similar immediate success that other quarterbacks like Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford have had since changing teams late into their careers. |
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88.
Rashaad Penny
RB - SEA (vs . LAR)
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89.
Tom Brady
QB - TB (at ATL)
He un-retired after little more than a month and will play at age 45. Can he continue to defy Father Time? It seems silly to bet against him at this point.
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90.
Brandon Aiyuk
WR - SF (vs . ARI)
Fantasy managers are still trying to figure out what went wrong with Brandon Aiyuk during the first half of last season. He was hyped up after an impressive rookie campaign, but suffered a hamstring injury during training camp that made him unreliable in the starting offense. Through Weeks 1-7, Aiyuk had just one weekly finish inside the top-25. He also averaged an abysmal 0.63 yards per route run - a mark that ranked 98th out of 102 qualifying WRs. Woof.
But give credit to Aiyuk for turning his season around during the second half. His yards per route run increased substantially (2.16, 13th) and he averaged 13.1 PPR fantasy points per game as the WR24. If Aiyuk can roll over his second-half production into 2022, he could end up as a smashing fantasy value in a similar way that Deebo Samuel was viewed in 2021. |
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91.
Hunter Renfrow
WR - LV (vs . KC)
There's really not much left to say when it comes to Hunter Renfrow. The kid's a certified stud and doesn't get the respect he deserves. The Raiders slot receiver hung a WR13 overall finish last season due to a spectacular late-season surge.
He went over 100 receiving yards in three straight games (Weeks 12-14) while maintaining a 25% target share. From Week 12 onward, his production generated a WR8 standing in half-point scoring. Renfrow made the most of the opportunities he got in 2021, and that won't change in 2022. Adding Davante Adams and Darren Waller will make targets for Renfrow harder to come by, but stay rest assured that the shifty wideout will perform if either guy is forced to miss time. |
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92.
Matthew Stafford
QB - LAR (at SEA)
Weapons are the name of the game with Stafford, who finished the season 11th in fantasy points per game (20.4) on the back of 41 passing touchdowns. Forty-plus TDs is no easy feat and should not be overlooked by fantasy drafters in 2022, especially because it was Stafford's first season in Sean McVay's offense.
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93.
Dawson Knox
TE - BUF (vs . NE)
Dawson Knox has major red flags on his profile from his impending touchdown regression to super-low target rate per route run (14%), so any role that O.J. Howard potential earns
coming in is a massive problem. Considering Knox is being drafted in the middle-range of TEs (TE9) that typically have poor ROIs compared to guys going later, the Bills tight end remains hands-off. |
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94.
Tony Pollard
RB - DAL (at WAS)
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95.
Drake London
WR - ATL (vs . TB)
Drake London boasts all the skills to be an alpha possession receiver for the Atlanta Falcons. The 6-foot-4 and 219-pound towering USC wide receiver only played in eight games due to an ankle injury but made every game count. He commanded a 38% target share, led all WRs in contested catches (19) and in receptions per game (11.0).
London concluded the year third in yards per route run (3.52) in his draft class. Even if London's final 2022 stat line doesn't turn heads based on potential shoddy quarterback play from Marcus Mariota /Desmond Ridder, a high target share will provide London a solid weekly floor. |
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96.
Chase Edmonds
RB - MIA (vs . NYJ)
This past year Chase Edmonds was viewed as the Arizona starting running back alongside James Conner. He stood as the RB21 through the first six weeks prior to suffering an ankle injury. Edmonds ranked fourth in the NFL in receptions among running backs (four catches and five targets per game).
Edmonds won't ever be a true three-down back due to durability concerns, as he missed seven games this past season. But used properly and kept healthy, there's no denying Edmonds can be a viable fantasy option because of his receiving and explosiveness. His spot-start usage/production in Weeks 16-17 without James Conner in the lineup - 23.9 expected fantasy points per game - showcases a running back who can deliver massive fantasy upside any given week. In 14 career games when Edmonds has commanded at least 11 touches - his average fantasy finish is RB18 (PPR). Edmonds should see plenty of work in a Dolphins backfield splitting snaps with Sony Michel and Raheem Mostert. Considering Gaskins' fantasy spike weeks in 2021 all came from his receiving usage, Edmonds should find similar success in that role with Miami. The late signing of running back Mostert and Michel might have some fantasy gamers soured on Edmonds. However, Edmonds was never going to see a full bell-cow workload. Losing out on some early-down carries to Mostert or Michel was to be expected. I'd still prefer Edmonds in fantasy due to the pass-catching and hope the other signings keeps his ADP at a value. |
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97.
Cordarrelle Patterson
RB - ATL (vs . TB)
RB Darrel Williams signed with the Cardinals this offseason.
Former teammate Patrick Mahomes vouched for Williams, informing Arizona that he was a back he both liked/trusted. Williams posted 1,000 yards from scrimmage, scored 8 TDs and had zero fumbles on 191 touches in 2021. He also proved that he could shoulder the load with Clyde Edwards-Helaire sidelined with injury. In the six games that Williams was the clear-cut starter in the Chiefs backfield, he averaged 19 fantasy points per game (PPR) on 18.3 touches per game. Also averaged nearly 100 yards from scrimmage (96.3). Williams is the James Conner backup to target across all formats, as he'd likely inherit the RB1 role should the injury-prone starter go down. His body of work as a receiver and goal-line back present him immediate fantasy RB1 upside. The former UDFA led the Chiefs backfield in red-zone touches and averaged 4.5 receptions per game as the starter in 2021. His 47 catches overall ranked ninth. |
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98.
Aaron Rodgers
QB - GB (vs . DET)
At age 38, Rodgers is still one of the best pure passers in the game, and there have been no discernible signs of decline. But make no mistake: Losing star WR Davante Adams is going to damage Rodgers' fantasy value. Expect at least incremental declines in both passing volume and efficiency. Rodgers has led the league in passer rating for two straight seasons and rarely throws interceptions, but he does very little running anymore. Without Adams, Rodgers' ceiling is probably low-end QB1, and it's probably best to view him as a high-end QB2.
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99.
Chase Claypool
WR - PIT (vs . CLE)
Chase Claypool's second-year breakout was inevitably halted by Ben Roethlisberger's lack of downfield throwing ability: On throws with 20-plus air yards, Big Ben graded 31st out of 38 qualifying QBs.
Claypool commanded a 27% air yards share on the season and led the team in the metric over the final four weeks. Better days should be ahead of the Notre Dame product if Pittsburgh can get better downfield quarterback play from Kenny Pickett/Mitchell Trubisky. Claypool is also due for positive touchdown regression after catching just one of his 12 end-zone targets last season. The 6-foot-5 monster is no stranger to hitting paydirt, after being one of eight wide receivers to score double-digit touchdowns as rookies since 1998. However, Claypool's range of outcomes is quite wide heading into his third season with 2022 second-round pick George Pickens, chomping at the bit to be the No. 2 on the offense behind Diontae Johnson. |
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100.
Allen Lazard
WR - GB (vs . DET)
Aaron Rodgers trusts Lazard after they have spent the last four seasons together, and their chemistry was on full display over the final 5 weeks of the 2021 regular season.
Lazard was the WR8 in PPR scoring on the back of 21 receptions for 290 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Someone on Green Bay will have to replace Davante Adams' elite red-zone production, and Lazard looks to fit the mold at 6-foot-5. |
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101.
Garrett Wilson
WR - NYJ (at MIA)
After enjoying a breakout sophomore campaign in 2020 that saw Garrett Wilson earn a 34% dominator rating - which considers the number of touchdowns and receiving yards a player commands within their offense - at 20 years old, the Ohio State product ran it back in impressive fashion in 2021.
The Buckeye scored 12 receiving touchdowns, compiled over 1,000 receiving yards and generated the FBS' 12th-highest passer rating when targeted (141.7). He also proved to NFL teams that he was more than just a shifty slot receiver, averaging 3.00 yards per route run despite operating on the outside on 83% of his routes run, which nearly matched his same yards per route run average from 2020 when he spent most of his time inside. And although Wilson's 2021 24% dominator rating was less than his sophomore campaign, that's really due to Ohio State's talent in the wide receiver room. He was competing for targets with senior Chris Olave and sophomore standout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who led the nation in PFF receiving grade (91.7). Going beyond the box score reveals that Wilson is a versatile route runner who can align anywhere on the field and still win. He was selected by the New York Jets 10th overall and joins a somewhat crowded WR room. And nobody can be sure Zach Wilson can support one or multiple fantasy assets. There are definitely question marks. However, Wilson is worth betting on because he's shown the ability at Ohio State to command targets and produce in an offense littered with other elite talents. Doesn't hurt his chance that he was deemed open on 84% of his targets last season. |
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102.
Zach Ertz
TE - ARI (at SF)
Tight end Zach Ertz is the other big winner in the wake of Deandre Hopkins' suspension. The former Eagle broke out in the Arizona Cardinals offense during the last four weeks of the season with Hopkins sidelined. Ertz was TE4 over that stretch averaging seven receptions per game (24% target share).
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103.
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB - NE (at BUF)
Rhamondre Stevenson experienced a very successful rookie season that should not be overlooked. After fully escaping the Bill Belichick doghouse in Week 9, Stevenson earned top grades across the board.
He was PFF's third-highest graded running back (84.2). Stevenson also ranked 13th in rushing yards and in yards per route run (1.41). For fantasy, the rookie running back was the RB25 in total points scored, eight spots behind his backfield teammate Harris. There's a high ceiling for Stevenson, especially if you ask former Patriots linebacker Rob Ninkovich. The ESPN analyst went as far as saying that Stevenson "...will be one of the better, if not one of the top three, running backs in the league based on what I saw with his strength, explosion and catch-and-run ability." |
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104.
Robert Woods
WR - TEN (at JAC)
Robert Woods was traded to the Titans after the Rams signed Allen Robinson in free agency. The move was less about Woods' ability, but rather his salary cap hit that the Rams were looking to free themselves from.
Still, entering his age 30-season fantasy managers should question whether Woods has the juice left to continue producing for fantasy. Often viewed as a safe fantasy WR2 during his time in L.A. - he was WR17 before his injury in 2021 - Woods might be subject to some poor game conditions in the Titans' run-heavy approach that could nuke his weekly fantasy appeal. He's got a chance to be the No. 1 receiver if rookie Treylon Burks fails to hit the ground running, but anything less will not be fruitful for the seasoned veteran. Over the past two seasons, production has not been kind to WRs over 30 years old. Only three receivers over 30 - Cole Beasley, Adam Thielen, and Marvin Jones Jr. - finished as top-40 fantasy options. If he stays healthy, Woods could easily beat his ADP. But I'm just not sure how high his fantasy ceiling is based on the situation. |
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105.
Michael Carter
RB - NYJ (at MIA)
RIP Michael Carter RB1 szn. The Jets drafted workhorse running back Breece Hall at the top of the 2nd round, but even considered trading up for him in Round 1 before selecting him 36th overall. The draft capital shows New York's commitment towards Hall being their clear-cut RB1 for 2022 and beyond, which makes Carter nothing more than a hand-cuff. It's a reminder to always sell high on Day 3 running backs that flash as rookies; they can be easily replaced and likely won't "survive" draft after draft without investment from their team.
Carter's looking anywhere between five-to-eight touches per game with Hall entrenched as the bellcow, making the former UNC back near obsolete as anything other than a backup with some upside. From Weeks 7-9 with Tevin Coleman sidelined, Carter averaged 19 touches per game and a 66% snap share. He also finished 10th in yards after contact per attempt (3.4) and third in PFF's elusive rating. Carter's receiving ability also fueled four top-17 weekly finishes in 2021, three of which were inside the top-13 in games that featured quarterback checkdown king Mike White under center. |
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106.
Christian Kirk
WR - JAC (vs . TEN)
Everything came together for Christian Kirk in 2021 because he was finally used from the slot. Unsurprisingly, Kirk established career highs across the board in targets (112), receptions (83), and receiving yards (1,035) while filling the void left by an injured DeAndre Hopkins.
Kirk commanded a 21% target share without Hopkins in the lineup and averaged 13.8 fantasy PPR points per game - a top-10 per-game average. In addition, he finished with the second most receiving yards from the slot among all wide receivers. Kirk should stay kicked iside with the Jaguars after they got little production from that position in 2021. Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault ranked in the bottom 10 with 1.30 yards per route run from the slot. Kirk ranked 13th with 1.80 yards per route run from the slot. He is shaping up to be the new Amari Rodgers for Trevor Lawrence, operating from the inside. At worst, Kirk takes shape as a strong WR3 asset who can elevate to WR2 status quickly with an up-and-coming quarterback. |
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107.
Deshaun Watson
QB - CLE (at PIT)
Deshaun Watson's a no-doubt top-five option when he gets back on the field. He was exactly that from 2019-2020, and there is no reason to think the 26-year old won't pick up where he left off. During his last season of play, Watson led the NFL in passing yards and yards per attempt (8.9).
Just be wary that a 4-8 game suspension will likely be coming down for Watson. However, that would not shy me away from him or any of his teammates because fantasy leagues - both redraft and best ball tournaments - are won in November/December, not September. |
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108.
Michael Gallup
WR - DAL (at WAS)
Michael Gallup's late season injury will almost certainly hurt his chances of being available for Week 1, with some diagnoses saying the Cowboys WR won't be ready until October.
The 2018 third-rounder averaged just 10.2 fantasy points per game in 2021 (47th), less than his 2020 season (10.8). It \doesn't help Gallup's case either that the team re-signed tight end Dalton Schultz, who figures to compete for top targets with CeeDee Lamb. Third-round rookie Jalen Tolbert also figures to get plenty of reps in training camp with Gallup rehabbing. Be careful to not overinvest in Gallup for fear that you'll be wasting a roster spot for a player that falls into the fantasy WR3 with upside tier, that just doesn't move the needle. |
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109.
Pat Freiermuth
TE - PIT (vs . CLE)
No rookie tight end flew up the dynasty rankings more than Pat Freiermuth, who made his case as a fringe fantasy TE1 in Year 1. The Pittsburgh Steelers rookie ramped things up in Week 6 after an injury to Eric Ebron and never looked back.
Baby Gronk was the TE7 from that time forward, averaging 11.3 fantasy points per game seventh). He would go on to finish the year as the TE13 overall despite running a route on just 56% of dropbacks. When starting and healthy, Freiermuth ran a route on 67% of dropbacks - a rate that would have ranked 15th-highest at the position in 2021. That's the bare minimum usage fantasy drafters should expect to see from the Penn State product with Ebron gone in free agency. |
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110.
Ronald Jones II
RB - KC (at LV)
The Kansas City Chiefs signed running back Ronald Jones to a one-year deal to help bolster their running back room behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
The former Buccaneer took a major step backward in 2021, being regulated to strict backup duties after losing out on the starting gig in Tampa Bay to Leonard Fournette. And even when loaded to take on the bell-cow role with Fournette sidelined during the end of the season, RoJo failed to fire. He earned 20 carries in Week 16 versus the Panthers but totaled just 65 yards. The plodding runner also finished 51st out of 64 qualifying running backs in yards after contact per attempt (2.5). Jones is a one-dimensional grinder back, whose fantasy value will be super reliant on carry-volume, offensive line play, and overall offensive efficiency. That in itself means he will have fantasy appeal as a late-round running back in redraft if he can carve out a role on early-down and/or at the goal-line in a high-powered Chiefs offense. |
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111.
Derek Carr
QB - LV (vs . KC)
The biggest winner in the aftermath of the Davante Adams trade is Derek Carr. He now has the luxury of throwing to a surplus of offensive weapons including arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL in his old college teammate.
Let's not forget that when Carr had everybody available last season, the Raiders quarterback ranked second in the NFL in passing yards and 15th in fantasy points per game. However, his ceiling was limited due to his lack of mobility and weaponry; Carr did not finish better than a top-8 quarterback at any point in 2021. But Adams figures to provide Carr with a red-zone weapon like no other that will unlock his fantasy ceiling. He's the exact positive touchdown regression that should launch Carr's fantasy numbers. Carr's 3.7 TD rate in 2021 was below his career average (4.3). And his 23 total passing touchdowns were seven below expectation. Fully anticipate Carr throwing for 30-plus laser scores bare minimum with Adams at his disposal. Every quarterback last season that threw for at least 30 touchdowns finished inside the top-10 in 2021. |
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112.
Trey Lance
QB - SF (vs . ARI)
Trey Lance is falling in best ball ADP because of reports surfacing that he is underwhelming at OTAs and because Jimmy Garoppolo remains on the roster. But after the 49ers beat reporters butchered the Trey Sermon situation last season and the 49ers' massive investment in Lance last year, I view this situation as an easy buy-low scenario.
Garoppolo's shoulder surgery is the reason he hasn't been traded. Once he is deemed healthy, I'd presume he gets moved to a QB-needy team or to a roster that sustains an injury at the position. Lance only started two games but showed off the rushing that excited fantasy managers during draft season. The 49ers' first-year signal-caller averaged 22.4 expected fantasy points and 60 rushing yards per game. |
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113.
Kirk Cousins
QB - MIN (at CHI)
The walking definition of a league-average quarterback. Cousins' 2021 season was basically a carbon copy of his 2020 season, and he finished QB11 in fantasy scoring both years. It's possible he plays somewhere other than Minnesota in 2022, but a $35 million base salary will make him hard to move. For fantasy purposes, he's a safe, boring investment.
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114.
James Robinson
RB - JAC (vs . TEN)
James Robinson operated as the pseudo bellcow for the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2021 after Travis Etienne went down with a preseason injury. He posted inconsistent fantasy production as the RB24 overall and in points per game in 14 games amid horrible usage deployed by the 2021 Jags coaching staff.
His touches varied from 21-to-2 depending on the week, so he was nearly impossible to project in fantasy. It's possible that 2022 presents a similar issue with Robinson as Etienne makes his professional debut. But JRob does deserve credit for maintaining efficient play whenever he got opportunities last season, finishing 11th in yards after contact per attempt (3.3) and 8th in red-zone touchdowns (8). His real hurdle for fantasy relevance besides fending off a 2022 first-round running back is attempting a speedy recovery from a torn Achilles suffered in late December. He will be unable to participate in OTAs, while his backfield counterpart is full-go as the team installs the new-look Doug Pederson offense. The former undrafted free agent is not guaranteed to be ready for Week 1. It's hard to envision Robinson being anything more than a speculative zero-RB target, with hopes that he can recapture 2020 form if given the volume. However, Pederson's track record of deploying a multitude of backs does make it seem like Robinson will be a 1B to Etienne's 1A, with his clearest path to fantasy relevance coming through goal-line opportunities. |
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115.
Chris Olave
WR - NO (vs . CAR)
Even with Michael Thomas presumably back in the fold, there was still a gaping hole at the wide receiver position in the Big Easy. Long-time general manager Mickey Loomis has had zero issues spending high-end draft capital on WRs in the past, so it's not surprising the Saints traded up to draft Chris Olave at No. 11.
The former Buckeye doesn't offer the same skill set as Thomas, but he can separate from defenders at an elite level downfield. Olave wrapped up his 2021 season in the 96th percentile in separation versus single coverage and caught seven touchdowns on throws of 20-plus air yards. Olave draws parallels to Calvin Ridley with his impressive route running ability. But like Ridley coming out of school, Olave doesn't offer much after the catch. His forced broken and missed tackle rate ranked 43rd among 43 qualifying wide receivers in the class. His yards after the catch per reception (4.2) ranked 37th. Without much YAC-ability in an offense that ranked fifth in that YAC/reception last season and a firm seat in the WR2 chair behind a healthy Thomas, I have trouble getting overly excited for Olave in New Orleans as nothing more than a boom-or-bust WR4. |
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116.
Hunter Henry
TE - NE (at BUF)
Hunter Henry emerged as Mac Jones' No. 1 red-zone weapon in his first year with the New England Patriots, finishing second in end-zone targets (13) and tying for first in red-zone touchdowns (9) with Mark Andrews.
But Henry's dependency on scoring touchdowns for fantasy made his production extremely volatile with just a 14% target share (13th). In seven of his games he finished as a top-12 tight end. In the other eight games, he finished outside the top-18. |
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117.
Alexander Mattison
RB - MIN (at CHI)
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118.
Raheem Mostert
RB - MIA (vs . NYJ)
Raheem Mostert will also be 30 years old by the season's start. He has played 16 games once and never started more than 8 games in a season.
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119.
Tua Tagovailoa
QB - MIA (vs . NYJ)
Somebody on the Miami Dolphins is in for a rude awakening come September. Mike Gesicki, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are all being pushed up the rankings/draft boards with hopes that Tua Tagovailoa takes a massive step forward in Year 3 under first-year head coach Mike McDaniel.
I am not as optimistic that Tagovailoa can be the vehicle to deliver fantasy goodness to all these pieces in South Beach because this offense is going to be run-heavy. McDaniel made his way up the coaching ranks under Kyle Shanahan as a standout run-game coordinator. And should he follow in the footsteps of Shanahan as the offensive mastermind in Miami, fantasy managers should expect a lot of rushing and YAC schemes. 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo ranked 29th in aDOT in 2021 (7.6) after ranking 39th and 35th in the category the two years prior. Tagovailoa's aDOT was 34th in the league (7.6) in 2021. Jimmy G's most productive seasons have seen him average just north of 16 fantasy points per game - good for QB17 in 2021. Tagovailoa has yet to eclipse 14 fantasy points per game two years into his career. He also ranked 31st in throwing at the intermediate level (62.5 PFF grade) among 37 qualifying passers last season. So although Tua is viewed as a popular late-round quarterback among fantasy circles, I have to admit I won't be pulling the trigger on him in 1QB redraft formats. Especially with his brutal early schedule. New England, Baltimore and Buffalo are hardly the stream-worthy spots you will be confident in starting the southpaw QB. In the Dolphins quarterback's four combined starts versus those teams in 2021, his fantasy finishes were QB23, QB24, QB18 and QB16. |
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120.
Mike Gesicki
TE - MIA (vs . NYJ)
Mike Gesicki may see his target numbers dip in 2022 in a run-heavy offense alongside target magnets Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. That will make his 2021 production difficult to replicate.
The tight end/slot receiver hybrid finished sixth in receptions, ninth in receiving yards, fourth in route participation (78%), and fifth in target share (17%) through 18 weeks of action of the 2021 season. This receiving and route volume led to only moderate success in fantasy football, as Mike Gesicki finished as TE9. His efficiency metrics left something to be desired, though - he was 13th in fantasy points per game (9.9) and 15th in yards per route run. Part of that does fall on the up-and-down quarterback play, but it just further cements Gesicki as a good, not great tight end in fantasy football. My biggest concern is that Gesicki has almost always underwhelmed after the catch - which will likely be a large part of the Dolphins new-look offense. His 3.2 YAC/reception ranked 41st of out 42 qualifying tight ends. Gesicki did deliver worthwhile fantasy production at times, as displayed by his TE6 standing from Weeks 3-15 (11.5 fantasy points per game). And 94% of his snaps came lined up in the slot or out wide in 2021, which is another advantage for creating mismatches. But all in all, he tends to only rise to the occasion for fantasy purposes when targets become available in the offense because of injuries to other players. The athletic tight end will end up meeting his mid-range 2022 ADP/ECR based on his consistent play the past two seasons, but won't enter the top-tier fantasy tight end conversation. |
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121.
Justin Fields
QB - CHI (vs . MIN)
Fields finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in his last four full games in 2021, averaging 21.7 fantasy points per game. He also averaged 56 rushing yards per game over his last six.
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122.
James Cook
RB - BUF (vs . NE)
Rookie running back James Cook has immediate sleeper fantasy appeal across all PPR formats based on his second-round draft capital, pass-catching prowess, explosiveness and offensive situation. The 5-foot-11, 199-pound running back has more than enough heft to manage a decent workload especially as a receiver out of the backfield. The 5-foot-7, 203-pound Devin Singletary was the RB3 over the last six weeks of the regular season when the Bills entrenched him as the featured guy. Cook with an ECR of RB44 seems priced closer to their floor than his ceiling considering Round 2 running backs have finished as top-36 running backs more than half the time (55%) since 2013.
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123.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
WR - KC (at LV)
Just less than a day after trading Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, the Chiefs have signed his replacement Marquez Valdes-Scantling. It's a three-year deal worth up to $36 million. Essentially the same money that Russell Gage got from the Buccaneers and what Zay Jones got from Jacksonville.
The ex-Packers field stretcher has ranked inside the top-5 in yards per reception over the last two seasons, so he will feel right at home catching bombs from Patrick Mahomes. He is sure to experience spiked weeks of production attached to the Chiefs' big-armed quarterback, but valuing him more than a weekly boom-or-bust fantasy WR3/4 would be malpractice. MVS does get a bump up in the WR rankings with a slight upgrade at QB and the opportunity to see a larger target share, but I wouldn't view him too dissimilarly to how he was perceived in Green Bay for the past four seasons. He has never commanded 75 targets in a season. His 2022 wide receiver ranking is comfortably behind JuJu Smith-Schuster and Skyy Moore. |
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124.
Darrell Henderson Jr.
RB - LAR (at SEA)
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125.
Kadarius Toney
WR - NYG (at PHI)
It remains to be seen how the Giants new coaching staff is viewing Kadarius Toney heading into Year 2. They were rumored to trade the polarizing wide receiver before the NFL Draft, and the selection of Wan'Dale Robinson early in Round 2 isn't a vote of confidence that is going to see an ultra-expanded role in Year 2.
However, what is clear with Toney is the talent. He flashed future target-magnet potential after commanding a 25% target rate per route run in 2021 - tied for 7th best in the NFL in 2021. |
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126.
Russell Gage
WR - TB (at ATL)
Gage is coming off a stellar year after posting career-highs in yards per route run (1.96) and PFF receiving grade (76.0) while playing more on the outside. Often thought of as a "slot-only" wideout, Gage split snaps 50/50 from the slot versus outside in 2021.
He also led the Falcons with a 29% target share since Week 11 - playing 53% of his snaps for the outside - showcasing his ability to earn passing volume alongside the talented Kyle Pitts Any receiver in a Tom Brady-led offense should be a sought-after commodity - so consider me in on Gage in 2022. There are plenty of scenarios where Gage continues his success from the tail-end of last season. |
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127.
DJ Chark Jr.
WR - DET (at GB)
I'd stay far away from D.J. Chark. His vertical game with Goff does not project well. Goff's average depth of throw has decreased over the last four seasons, with his most recent 2021 mark (6.8) ranking dead last among 38 qualifying quarterbacks.
During Chark's fantasy WR17 season in 2019, he ranked sixth in the NFL in catches of 20-plus air yards (13) before his injury. Goff has averaged 13 completions of 20-plus air yards the last two seasons. Chark screams like he will be used more like a vertical field stretcher decoy that will open up targets for St. Brown, running backs, and tight ends underneath. |
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128.
DeVante Parker
WR - NE (at BUF)
2021 was a typical season for DeVante Parker. The former first-round pick had at least seven targets in seven of his nine game played, scoring double-digit fantasy points in more than half of them. He averaged 12.9 expected fantasy points per game through 17 weeks (28th).
His acquisition by the Patriots helps shore up the need for a big-bodied wide receiver on the perimeter that can make plays downfield. But the extent of how high a target share Parker will command remains to be seen. If anything, he probably has the most touchdown upside of the New England Patriots WRs. Just don't be overly bullish on him being available all season-long, as his injury history proceeds him. His 1.48 yards per route run was also his worst mark since 2018 as was his 55% catch rate. |
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129.
Cole Kmet
TE - CHI (vs . MIN)
No tight end should make a bigger leap in 2022 than the third-year tight end, whose upside has been capped by a lack of touchdown equity with veteran Jimmy Graham rearing his ugly head the past few seasons. But Graham's currently a free agent, opening the door for Kmet to smash in 2022.
Kmet's eighth-ranked route participation and seventh-ranked target share (17%) from 2021 hardly aligns with his fantasy production - no tight end finished with more fantasy points under expectation (-36.6) than the Notre Dame product in 2021. That designation is a sign Kmet is due for a fantasy breakout. It signaled as much for guys like Zach Ertz and Dawson Knox, who scored fewer points than expected in 2020 before contributing in fantasy this year. Both tight ends finished 2021 as top-10 options at the position in fantasy points per game. The Chicago Bears hired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy to pair with second-year quarterback Justin Fields. Getsy should be able to build an offense more conducive to Fields' mobility - something he had success with at Mississippi State as its former OC. An overall offensive boost should help fuel Kmet as 2022's breakout tight end. He has the requisite size and athleticism, sporting an 87th-percentile height, 88th-percentile vertical jump, and 89th-percentile broad jump. Kmet checks off all the boxes for a tight end breakout, and that's exactly why I have him ranked three spots ahead of consensus at TE13. |
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130.
Skyy Moore
WR - KC (at LV)
Western Michigan WR Skyy Moore is being undervalued versus other Round 1 rookie WRs because he was a second-round pick as the 13th wide receiver selected in the draft. But Moore has a chance to hit the ground running in the post-Tyreek Hill era, competing for targets with fellow newcomers Juju Smith Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. His impressive YAC ability - tied for first with 26 forced missed tackles in 2021 - and ability to play both inside/outside helps him stand out from the other Chiefs WRs. With Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback, Moore could smash his current ECR into the stratosphere. It's not that outlandish to think a second-rounder can make an immediate impact considering six of the 12 highest-scoring Round 1 & 2 rookie WRs selected since 2017 were second-rounders.
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131.
Trevor Lawrence
QB - JAC (vs . TEN)
Joe Burrow's massive second-year jump is encouraging for this year's second-year QBs like Trevor Lawrence. The Jags quarterback finished with the same expected fantasy points per game average as Burrow in 2021 (17.3) but underwhelmed tremendously in a poor situation. His -72.3 fantasy points versus expectation were the most of any QB in 2021.
Lawrence posted a season-high 85.1 PFF passing grade in the season-finale, offering some hope that he can turn things around in 2022 with a new coaching staff in place. There's a strong chance that Jacksonville dials up the passing attempts with Doug Pederson calling the shots on offense. During his five-year tenure in Philadelphia, only once did the offense not finish top-10 in pass attempts. |
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132.
Noah Fant
TE - SEA (vs . LAR)
There was hope that a QB upgrade in Denver could take Fant to the next level. Unfortunately, Fant was part of the trade package that enabled the Broncos to acquire Russell Wilson. Fant is athletic and has demonstrated his pass-catching chops, but Seattle's bleak QB situation is going to be a limiting factor.
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133.
Rob Gronkowski
TE - FA (BYE)
Gronk was still impactful at age 32. If he decides to run it back with Tom Brady one more time, Gronk should continue to provide TE1 value, health permitting.
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134.
Robert Tonyan
TE - GB (vs . DET)
Robert Tonyan wasn't particularly effective last season before his injury - only two games with over 10 fantasy points and TE29 in fantasy points per game - but the path to upside exists in an offense led by Aaron Rodgers.
Don't be too quick to forget that Tonyan caught 11 touchdowns in 2020, and there are many red-zone opportunities left with Adams removed from the equation. The new Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver has earned 28 red-zone targets over the last two seasons - most by any player. As long as Tonyan remains just outside the middle-range tight end ADP, he is definitely worth an 11th or 12th round selection. With so much ambiguity regarding which wide receiver will emerge from Green Bay, the right answer might be just drafting Tonyan instead. |
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135.
Logan Thomas
TE - WAS (vs . DAL)
Logan Thomas is the tight end name to highlight with his ADP falling two rounds. I'd don't think this is a result of the team drafting Cole Turner in Round 5 and more of an acknowledgment of Thomas' return from a least-season ACL injury. Chances are he misses the first few weeks of the season. But similar to the case with OBJ, he can be a force for you down the stretch when healthy.
Thomas figures to be back in the starting role after signing an extension last season. I'd buy low on him across the board coming off his injury-plagued season, which limited him to just five full games. The Washington tight end role features a 90%-plus route run per dropback rate, which is extremely rare to find among NFL offenses. |
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136.
Tyler Boyd
WR - CIN (vs . BAL)
Tyler Boyd was a victim of circumstances more than anything else in 2021, with two alpha wide receivers in the Bengals offense leaving him nothing but scraps. The Bengals slot receiver commanded just a 15% target share and target rate per route run.
The target rate per route ranked dead-last among 73 qualifying players last season that commanded at least 100 targets. It's clear that Boyd can't be viewed as much working as a clear ancillary piece of the Cincinnati passing attack. Tight end C.J. Uzomah's departure does open up the potential that Boyd could shoulder a larger target workload, but his upside remains extremely limited while Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are healthy. |
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137.
Kenny Golladay
WR - NYG (at PHI)
Poor Kenny Golladay. The New York Giants' prized offseason acquisition failed to score a single touchdown with his new team despite seeing 13 end-zone targets. It was the most end-zone targets of any player to go scoreless this season.
We have an extremely large sample size of Golladay catching touchdowns at the NFL level, though - he led the NFL with 11 receiving touchdowns in 2019. So the big-bodied wideout has nowhere to go but up in 2022. |
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138.
Sony Michel
RB - MIA (vs . NYJ)
Give credit to Sony Michel after he ranked third in rushing yards and first in carries over the final six weeks of the 2021 season. The former Rams running back performed admirably in relief of Darrell Henderson Jr., but he was immediately supplanted by Cam Akers once the second-year back was deemed healthy enough to play a full-time role.
He signed a 1 year, $1.75M contract with the Miami Dolphins this offseason, joining a backfield with Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert. Michel offers the least explosiveness of the bunch but has the most proven track record of shouldering a workload that translates into fantasy production at 5-foot-11 and 216 pounds. Considering neither Edmonds nor Mostert (entering age 30-season) have ever commanded a consistent three-down workload, Michel has super interesting appeal if he becomes the No. 1 runner in the Miami backfield. Don't rule it out despite his very mediocre one-year contract. |
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139.
Isaiah Spiller
RB - LAC (at DEN)
The Chargers are no strangers to taking shots on bigger but unathletic running backs on Day 3 of the NFL Draft. Joshua Kelley was the guy in 2020 and Larry Rountree was the guy in 2021.
Isaiah Spiller represents the latest rehash of the Chargers trying to find an appropriate thunder to Austin Ekeler's lightning, and I for one think Spiller is already the best bet currently on the roster. The former Texas A&M running back has the capacity for three-down spot start duties with an all-encompassing skill set and desirable size - 6-feet and 217 pounds . Spiller should be a solid producer for the Chargers if given the opportunity although his lack of top-notch speed could keep him from being elite. He had only eight carries of 20-plus yards in 2021. But I'd be hard-pressed to ignore his impressive age-adjusted production as one of his most encouraging traits. Since Day 1 at Texas A&M, Spiller has been the lead dog for the Aggies. As a true freshman in 2019, he scored 10 rushing touchdowns and finished 16th in the nation in yards after contact per attempt en route to a 22% dominator rating. The power running back capped off his first year in impressive fashion with back-to-back seasons of 1,000 rushing yards and 100 missed tackles. Spiller also displayed receiving prowess, commanding at least an 8% target share and an average of 25 receptions per season. With Justin Jackson still an unsigned free agent, Spiller looks slated for instant impact in Year 1. |
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140.
Irv Smith Jr.
TE - MIN (at CHI)
Touted as a potential breakout candidate last summer, Smith missed the entire 2021 season with a torn meniscus. Has the potential to be a significant contributor on a team with a narrow target tree.
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141.
Jamaal Williams
RB - DET (at GB)
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142.
Jakobi Meyers
WR - NE (at BUF)
Jakobi Meyers is easily the most slept on wide receiver in fantasy football. The former undrafted free agent has been the Patriots target leader for the past two seasons, with his most recent accomplishment finishing top-12 in target share (23%) in 2021.
The high-end target share also aligned with Meyer's deployment in the Patriots passing attack, where Meyers was running a route on 92% of team dropbacks - the sixth-highest mark in the league. New England's No. 1 receiver just needs to cash-in on more touchdowns to unlock his fantasy ceiling. He has been extremely underused in that category; his 866 receiving yards resulting in two touchdowns were the lowest of any WR in 2021. |
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143.
Gus Edwards
RB - BAL (at CIN)
Gus Edwards is a true underdog story - a former undrafted free agent who owns a top-5 PFF rushing grade and yards per carry (5.1) since 2018. But with coming off a torn ACL and J.K. Dobbins entrenched as the 1A starter in the Ravens backfield, is the efficient GusBu even worth the squeezer in fantasy football?
Consider in his best season, 2021, Edwards finished RB35 in 0.5 PPR scoring. That low-end RB3 upside is gone now. He can't be viewed as much of anything but a hand-cuff to Dobbins, with hopes that he can also occasionally find the end zone to make up for a lack of pass-game work. Because ten touches per game in the form of carries is going to do literally nothing to help your fantasy lineup. Do not buy into the fallacy that Edwards owns "stand-alone value." |
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144.
Matt Ryan
QB - IND (vs . HOU)
After spending his entire 14-year NFL career with the Atlanta Falcons, Matt Ryan will be the starting quarterback for the Indianapolis Colts in his 15th season. Atlanta traded Matt Ryan to the Colts for a 2022 third-round pick.
It's a major upgrade for Ryan's fantasy appeal that he was able to get out of Atlanta - a franchise that looks to be in a massive rebuild. Last season, Ryan lacked a strong supporting cast which contributed to his lackluster numbers. Calvin Ridley played five games, and the Falcons owned the league's second-worst blocking offensive line per PFF. Ryan faced pressure at the sixth-highest rate (40%). That won't be the case in Indianapolis with a better offensive line in place, a stable running game, and playmakers like Michael Pittman Jr. and Jonathan Taylor to boot. Ryan was also vastly underrated as a passer despite the ongoing turmoil ranking above average in many of PFF's sticky efficiency metrics in 2021: 12th in PFF passing grade from a clean pocket, second throwing at the intermediate level, and ninth throwing on early downs. Entering a Frank Reich system that prides itself on churning out play-action (5th) and screen passes (10th) will make Ryan's life a helluva lot easier than it was in Atlanta. Ryan ranked 33rd in screen throw rate and 12th in play-action rate in 2021. The new Colts quarterback is back on the fantasy QB2 radar for 2022. |
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145.
Albert Okwuegbunam
TE - DEN (vs . LAC)
Albert Okwuegbunam tied for the third-highest target rate per route run in the NFL last season (23%). Now entrenched as the presumed full-time starter with Noah Fant traded to the Seattle Seahawks this offseason, the uber-athletic tight end can break out in Year 3.
It bodes well in Albert O's favor that Noah Fant finished last season as the TE12 while the duo played in 14 games together. |
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146.
Corey Davis
WR - NYJ (at MIA)
Corey Davis has an opt-out in his contract in 2023, so the writing is on the wall about his future in Gang Green. The team has invested high-end draft capital in WRs in the last two drafts, with their latest pick in Garrett Wilson profiling as someone that could line up in Davis' spot on the perimeter.
Still, Davis probably will be a starter to open the season, and he showed chemistry with Zach Wilson before he got hurt in 2021. The former Titan was the WR25 in half-point scoring with a 21% target share. He never played a game with fewer than 5 targets through his first six games. |
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147.
Tyler Higbee
TE - LAR (at SEA)
When Tyler Higbee came back from the COVID list he commanded at least 40 receiving yards along with of targets totals of 6, 9, 6,4 and 6. All in all, he averaged a 19% target share over the last four weeks after struggling to earn any worthwhile target share as afterthought in the Rams passing attack.
Considering Higbee is always on the field in LA's one-TE offense - 93% route participation the Divisonal round, 76% during 2021 - he will have productive outings in the confines of a high-powered offense. He should be good to go by Week 1, barring any setbacks from his knee surgery. |
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148.
Ryan Tannehill
QB - TEN (at JAC)
A.J. Brown's absurd efficiency and YAC-ability in Tennessee was a primary driving force behind Ryan Tannehill's fantasy success as a Titan. Even with Treylon Burks in the fold, it's hard to get overly excited about the Tennessee QB in one of the NFL's most run-heavy offenses devoid of any elite, proven pass-catchers. He got exposed without offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and weapons last season in 2021, finishing the season with his lowest passer rating to date as a Titan (88.1, 23rd). Tannehill's passer rating off play action throws also fell off (96.1 versus 109.5). 2022 is going to be a rude awakening for Tannehill, who has the largest cap hit in the NFL this year ($38.6M).
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149.
Jarvis Landry
WR - NO (vs . CAR)
Jarvis Landry signed with the New Orleans Saints this offseason, providing much added depth to the team's wide receiver room.
The 29-year-old's best season with the Browns came back in 2019 when he averaged 12.2 fantasy points per game in half-point scoring as the WR13. The former LSU star's production fell off in the last two seasons amid quarterback Baker Mayfield's struggles. However, Landry displayed a higher fantasy ceiling in games that Odell Beckham Jr. missed from 2020-2021 averaging 11.2 points per game in 2020 (nine games) and 9.5 points per game in 2021 (ten games). So although his WR56 and 8.9 fantasy points per game in 2021 suggest Landry may be on the decline, he was more a victim of bad circumstances. His 25% target rate per route run ranked top-12 last season - tying him with the likes of D.J. Moore, D.K. Metcalf, Brandin Cooks and Stefon Diggs. He'll compete for his fair share of targets in an offense alongside what now appears like a sneaky good pass-catching corps between veteran Michael Thomas, first-round rookie Chris Olave and running back Alvin Kamara. There's a clear path for steady fantasy WR2 production with Landry if Thomas doesn't overcome the remaining hurdles stemming from his ankle rehab. |
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150.
Jameson Williams
WR - DET (at GB)
Williams may not hit the field until October, making him a tough guy to stash in redraft formats. Furthermore, Williams' vertical ability cannot be capitalized with Jared Goff under center.
Goff's average depth of throw has decreased over the last four seasons, with his most recent 2021 mark (6.8) ranking dead last among 38th qualifying quarterbacks. He has also averaged just 13 completions of 20-plus air yards the last two seasons. Williams finished top-seven among all college wide receivers in receiving yards on 20-plus air yard throws in 2021. However, Williams does also possess top-tier YAC-ability so he should be able to salvage some production when he returns from injury. And although Goff's lack of deep game isn't ideal, we have seen him fuel top fantasy WR seasons before in Los Angeles and Detroit. Most recently with Amon-Ra St. Brown, who was the fantasy WR3 to close out last season. Williams commanded a 31% dominator rating last season by hanging 1,561 receiving yards, 20 yards per reception and 15 touchdowns - all achievements that ranked top-three among his 2022 NFL Draft class. Nobody will be shocked to see Williams out-produce the combination of St. Brown and T.J. Hockenson once he is fully acclimated into the offense. |
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151.
Jameis Winston
QB - NO (vs . CAR)
The additions of Jarvis Landry, Chris Olave and Michael Thomas are massive benefits for quarterback Jameis Winston, who is starting to emerge from this offseason as an intriguing late-round quarterback fantasy option. Winston played with almost zero weapons a season ago and still managed to average 17.5 fantasy points per game - good for QB14 on the year. The Saints quarterback also finished the season with the league's sixth-highest passer rating (102.8) and the lowest turnover-worthy play rate (3%) of his career. Winston led all QBs last year in fantasy points per dropback (0.64).
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152.
Zach Wilson
QB - NYJ (at MIA)
Everything about Wilson's situation is improved from a year ago. The Jets have stockpiled their offense with WR Garrett Wilson, OG Laken Tomlinson, RB Breece Hall and a plethora of tight ends to give their young quarterback a chance of succeeding in his second season.
If New York's offensive line can hold up in pass protection, Wilson has a chance of delivering fantasy value. |
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153.
Christian Watson
WR - GB (vs . DET)
The worst-case scenario with Christian Watson is that he becomes Marques Valdez-Scantling in the Green Bay Packers offense. The elite athleticism and big-play ability present a sky-high ceiling as Aaron Rodgers' future WR1, but a lack of refinement and focus drops reveal a somewhat scary floor.
MVS' 73-target rookie season in 2018 is the most a first-year WR has ever earned from Rodgers, which further bolsters the case for a Valdes-Scantling floor for Watson. Davante Adams led that team with 169 targets. Either way, he's worth a middle-to-backend Round 1 pick in rookie drafts. The opportunity he could see from Day 1 amid a lackluster receiving corps of Sammy Watkins, Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and Amari Rodgers is salivating. |
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154.
Van Jefferson
WR - LAR (at SEA)
Van Jefferson Jr. didn't necessarily take off during his second season, but he earned the trust of the coaching staff to earn a near every-down role - unhead at the position for a No. 3 wide receiver.
Jefferson finished 20th in route participation (86%) and should maintain that high-end usage heading into the 2022 season. In that role last season, Jefferson finished as WR35 overall on the season and outside the top 40 in points per game. The Rams vertical threat is the rare WR handcuff that would see his production spike should an injury occur to either Cooper Kupp or Allen Robinson. |
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155.
David Njoku
TE - CLE (at PIT)
Franchise-tagged tight end David Njoku has a golden opportunity to break out in 2022 with Deshaun Watson as his quarterback after an encouraging 2021. He set career highs in PFF grade (70.9, 10th), yards per route run (1.56, 8th), and yards after the catch per reception (7.0, first) among tight ends that commanded at least 50 targets in 2021.
The Browns also released Austin Hooper, which should open up the opportunity for the athletic Njoku to take a major leap. Don't be too quick to forget that Njoku already as a top-10 TE finish on his career resume. |
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156.
J.D. McKissic
RB - WAS (vs . DAL)
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157.
Mac Jones
QB - NE (at BUF)
The rookie quarterback was highly efficient as a passer, finishing 18th in PFF passing grade, throwing 10-19 yards, 13th from a clean pocket and 10th on early downs. Those specific metrics tend to be sticky year over year and more predictive than raw counting stats.
Still, those numbers were equally impressive for Jones, who posted the sixth-highest passer rating (92.5) and second-highest completion percentage (67.6%) for a rookie quarterback with at least 300 attempts in NFL history. |
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158.
Tim Patrick
WR - DEN (vs . LAC)
Pairing Tim Patrick with Russell Wilson is the best way to find fantasy value in the later rounds of drafts. Patrick is seriously underrated despite the fact that he has out-produced Jerry Jeudy in the fantasy points column the last two seasons and has seen a featured role as a red-zone threat.
His production the last two seasons earned him a three-year, $34.5 million contract extension. Like it or not, Patrick will be on the field as much - if not more - than Jeudy in 2022 as the boundary receiver opposite Courtland Sutton. And their two ADPs couldn't be more different. |
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159.
Dameon Pierce
RB - HOU (at IND)
If you liked Dameon Pierce before the NFL Draft, then you should be thrilled about his landing spot in Houston.
There's a chance that PFF's highest-graded running back from the FBS (92.0) in 2021 carves out a role on early downs even though the team added Marlon Mack this offseason. News flash, people - Mack signed a one-year, $two-million deal with Houston, and it's less than the team is paying Rex Burkhead..1 million of Burkhead's $2.35 million contract is fully guaranteed. We could easily see Mack released as much as we could see Pierce become the team's starting running back. Although my one reservation with Pierce is that traditionally New England has been very stingy about featuring rookie running backs historically - especially ones drafted late. During Nick Caserio's tenure with the Patriots, Stevan Ridley's 87 carries were the most for any non-first-round rookie running back. It was until Caserio left New England for Houston, that Rhamondre Stevenson broke that mark with 133 carries in 2021. Not to mention, there's clearly an affinity with veteran running backs that Texans can't seem to quit. They force-fed David Johnson and Mark Ingram II among other veterans last season, despite having some younger players they could give reps to. Caserio's post-draft press conference cited Pierce as someone that needs to earn a role and be a factor on special teams. So pump the brakes on Pierce RB1 szn ever so slightly. The fact Pierce never fully took over Florida's backfield does raise red flags. His 12% career dominator rating is eerily similar to Trey Sermon (12%) from last season, and Sermon struggled to separate himself from the pack in his rookie campaign. Even during his breakout senior season, the 5-foot-10 and 218-pound running back earned just a 22% dominator rating while sharing the backfield alongside fellow draft-eligible running back Malik Davis. However, I am willing to offer some benefit of the doubt after Pierce never topped 106 carries in college. There may have been some underlying issue with former Gators head coach Dan Mullen that prevented Pierce from seeing a more featured role. Case in point: Pierce only had two games with double-digit carries in 2021, both of which came after Mullen was fired toward the end of the season. Pierce's lackluster dominator rating doesn't capture his coach's potential ineptitude. The fact Pierce competed with NFL talent like Jordan Scarlett and La'Mical Perine very early in his college career paints a better picture of how his impact will be felt in years to come. But from the get-go, I doubt we see Pierce be a major fantasy factor to start the 2022 season. |
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160.
Kenneth Gainwell
RB - PHI (vs . NYG)
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161.
D'Onta Foreman
RB - CAR (at NO)
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162.
Buffalo Bills
DST - BUF (vs . NE)
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163.
Nyheim Hines
RB - IND (vs . HOU)
Nyheim Hines posted career-lows across the receiving board in 2021, but there's hope that with a new quarterback under center that he can bounce back in 2022.
No passer targeted running backs more than new Colts quarterback Matt Ryan did in 2021 - 8.6 targets per game. Bodes well for Hines to provide more usable weeks like he did in 2020. That year, Hines finished as RB18 in PPR scoring. |
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164.
Rondale Moore
WR - ARI (at SF)
Rondale Moore is entering his second season with a straightforward path for an expanded role in the Cardinals' offense. He flashed his potential early on for Arizona in 2021, with 182 receiving yards in his first two NFL games. But Kliff Kingsbury never opted to go back to Moore with the likes of A.J. Green and Christian Kirk playing solid roles. We should see Moore - and his dead-last 1.3 aDOT - experience significant growth in Year 2 especially with DeAndre Hopkins suspended for the first six weeks of the season.
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165.
Evan Engram
TE - JAC (vs . TEN)
Evan Engram's PFF receiving grade has declined over the last four seasons, bottoming out in 2021 at 54.9 - 40th among 44 qualifying tight ends.
And he hasn't disappointed due to a lack of opportunities, either. He finished top-15 in route participation (68%) and had almost zero competition for targets with injuries to Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard. Alas, Engram failed to command any worthwhile target share with his abysmal 14% target rate per route run. So consider me slightly hesitant to buy into Engram breaking out in 2022 because his new head coach has a history of featuring tight ends. Sure, it works in Engram's favor, but last I checked Dan Arnold is still on the team. And Doug Pederson has also been known to heavily feature two tight ends in his offense, which doesn't always translate to fantasy success. |
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166.
Marlon Mack
RB - HOU (at IND)
News flash, people - Marlon Mack signed a 1-year $2 million deal with Houston, and it's less than the team is paying Rex Burkhead (RB95).
In fact, $2.1 million of Burkhead's $2.35 million contract is fully guaranteed. We could easily see Mack released as much as we could see him become the team's starting running back. Because the former Colts running back has been completely off-the-grid the past two seasons after tearing his Achilles at the start of 2020. Since his 1,000-yard campaign in 2019, Mack has totaled 32 carries for 127 yards. |
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167.
Gerald Everett
TE - LAC (at DEN)
Gerald Everett was solid during stretches of the 2021 season, particularly after Russell Wilson returned from injury. The ex-Rams tight end ranked as the TE9 in fantasy points per game (PPR) from Weeks 10-16 while running a route on 74% of dropbacks.
Everett proved he can be a featured No. 1 tight end for the Chargers coming off a career year. He achieved career-highs in receptions (48) and receiving yards (478) and wreaked havoc with the ball in his hands, forcing 11 missed tackles after the catch - sixth-most among tight ends. His peripheral metrics in Seattle's offense - 12% target share, 63% route participation and 17% target rate per route run - were nearly identical to Jared Cook on the Chargers offense last season. Cook finished as TE16 overall which seems like Everett's fantasy floor heading into 2022. The tackle-breaking tight end finished the 2021 season just .4 points per game short of Cook's average (8.3 versus 7.9) despite playing in an offense that ranked dead last in pass attempts per game (29.1). L.A. ranked third in that category last season (39.6). Breakout tight ends are generally athletic players who earn above-average route participation in high-powered offenses. Everett fits the profile of next season's star at the position. |
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168.
Daniel Jones
QB - NYG (at PHI)
There's a ray of hope now that Jones has gone from a head coach/offensive coordinator combo of Joe Judge and Jason Garrett to Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka. But Jones' future with the Giants in uncertain after the team declined his fifth-year option. Jones' mobility is appealing, but he has been an inefficient turnover machine during his first three NFL seasons. The hope is that Daboll can turn Jones into a Josh Allen Lite, but Jones simply can't match Allen's arm strength. If you're going to invest in this fixer-upper, make sure you don't pay much.
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169.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DST - TB (at ATL)
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170.
Jahan Dotson
WR - WAS (vs . DAL)
Terry McLaurin is in the midst of a contract dispute, Curtis Samuel has struggled to stay healthy and 2021 third-rounder Dyami Brown failed to fire as a rookie.
Jahan Dotson's biggest strengths to me are his reliability and the floor that he can offer the Commanders, and that is going to translate into target volume. That's what he did during his final season at Penn State, posting an absurd 43% dominator rating while racking up the 8th-most receptions in his draft class. |
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171.
Carson Wentz
QB - WAS (vs . DAL)
Wentz stayed healthy in 2021 and finished QB15 for the Colts. He's since been traded to Washington in a deal that probably doesn't move the needle much on his fantasy value. Wentz has never fulfilled the promise of his (injury-shortened) near-MVP season in 2017 and now seems destined to dwell in the QB2 zone.
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172.
Khalil Herbert
RB - CHI (vs . MIN)
One of my favorite cheap back targets is Khalil Herbert. David Montgomery is on the final year of his rookie contract, and the new coaching regime will have no loyalty toward him. That could open the door for Herbert to earn a larger role, which he more than deserves after how well he played in 2021.
Herbert was PFF's fourth-highest-graded rusher (84.6) from Weeks 5-8 with Montgomery sidelined. The rookie rushed for at least 72 yards in all four games. Montgomery rushed for 72 yards four times all season. |
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173.
Odell Beckham Jr.
WR - FA (BYE)
Let OBJ's resurgence with the Rams be a reminder that a situation can tank a wide receiver's stats. Case in point: Beckham owned the second-worst catchable target rate in the league since joining the Cleveland Browns. Of course, his numbers weren't great.
But as a Ram, Beckham was PFF's 33rd-graded wide receiver (72.2), averaging a 19% target share and 12.4 fantasy points per game from Week 12 through the divisional round. OBJ had his best game with the Rams in the NFC title game, hauling in nine of 11 targets for 113 receiving yards (24% target share). And he looked well on his way to another massive game in the Super Bowl after catching two passes for 52 yards and one score in the first half alone. Unfortunately for Beckham, he tore his ACL - tanking his free agency stock and putting his entire 2022 season in doubt. It's reported that OBJ will re-sign with the Rams or the Packers, which will significantly impact where his ADP ultimately rests at. |
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174.
Mecole Hardman
WR - KC (at LV)
Mecole Hardman will see an expanded role after the Tyreek Hill trade, but too often he has failed to fire when asked to take a step forward in the No. 1 WR's absence.
The Chiefs adding a plethora of WRs in free agency along with second-rounder Skyy Moore in the NFL Draft hints they aren't expecting a massive leap for Hardman. My advice is to not get overly aggressive drafting a player that has yet to rid the role of a gadget player since entering the league. Because although the thought of a speedy wide receiver attached to Patrick Mahomes is enticing the on-field production really has not been there for Hardman even from a spiked-weeked perspective. Case in point, he has finished a a top-18 weekly WR in PPR once in three years to go along with a handful of 18-20th overall finishes. |
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175.
San Francisco 49ers
DST - SF (vs . ARI)
You want the 49ers defense in fantasy football drafts. Their two first matchups - Chicago, Seattle - should allow them up to dial up pressure on fringy QBs. They were PFF's 4th-highest graded pass-rush unit a season ago and added USC pass-rusher Drake Jackson in the second round of the draft.
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176.
William Fuller V
WR - FA (BYE)
The one-year, $10.6 million contract Will Fuller signed with the Miami Dolphins this past offseason did not go according to plan for any party involved. Fuller battled through injuries - as he often does- and finished the season with just four catches for 26 yards.
The big-play wideout did nothing to boost his free agency stock after 2021 but will likely be added by someone with hopes he can regain 2020 form. He finished as PFF's 10th-highest-graded wide receiver that season and was ninth in yards per route run (2.28) and eighth in fantasy points per game (17.2). |
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177.
Chris Carson
RB - SEA (vs . LAR)
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178.
James White
RB - NE (at BUF)
James White looked to be on his way to another productive season in 2021, catching 12 passes for 94 receiving yards through the Patriots' first two games. However his season was cut cut extremely short by a season-ending hip injury. Brandon Bolden took over pass-catching duties and finished the year as the RB42, averaging 6.7 points per game (RB57). The combined efforts of White/Bolden in 2021 would have produced the RB33 in half-point scoring, but just the RB50 in points per game (7.6).
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179.
Myles Gaskin
RB - MIA (vs . NYJ)
With all the new additions Miami has made in the backfield this offseason, Myles Gaskin seems like the odd-man out. Can't imagine he has any fantasy role unless injuries thrust him into action. The 2019 7th-round pick finished with the second-worst yards after contact per attempt average (2.2) in 2021 among 61 RBs with at least 70 carries.
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180.
Denver Broncos
DST - DEN (vs . LAC)
The Broncos fit all the criteria you are looking for a draft-able fantasy DST. They boast an elite real-life defense that features the likes of Randy Gregory, Bradley Chubb and Pat Surtain II. Denver will pose problems for their two first opponents: Seattle and Houston.
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181.
Indianapolis Colts
DST - IND (vs . HOU)
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182.
New Orleans Saints
DST - NO (vs . CAR)
The Saints still possess a top-tier defense, and therefore should not be overlooked with a cakewalk of easy matchups. Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Carolina round out New Orleans' first 3 games. Two are against pushovers at QB, while Tampa is a matchup the Saints have dominated since TB12's arrival. In four regular season games versus Brady's Buccaneers, the Saints have never scored fewer than 16 fantasy points.
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183.
Justin Tucker
K - BAL (at CIN)
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184.
Jared Goff
QB - DET (at GB)
How firm is Goff's grasp on Detroit's starting QB job? Pretty firm after Detroit declined to add a QB in this year's draft. After throwing one TD pass over a five-game midseason stretch in 2021, Goff threw 11 TD passes over his final five games, buoyed by the emergence of WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. It's easy to forget that Goff had a pair of top-12 fantasy finishes with the Rams earlier in his career. The QB1 upside may be gone, but Goff's late-2021 competence and his cache of young weapons at least makes him worthy of consideration in superflex leagues.
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185.
Trey Sermon
RB - SF (vs . ARI)
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186.
Robbie Anderson
WR - CAR (at NO)
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187.
Tyler Bass
K - BUF (vs . NE)
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188.
Sterling Shepard
WR - NYG (at PHI)
Simply put: When Sterling Shepard is healthy and on the field, he gets peppered with targets.
He has been a top-40 wide receiver in terms of fantasy points per game (PPR) over the past three seasons, commanding nearly eight targets per game. But with his health status off the Achilles tear a major concern and the Giants featuring highly-competitive wide receiver room, 2022 might be the year Ol' Shepard falls to the wayside as nothing more than bench depth with a decent floor in PPR formats as his main selling argument. |
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189.
Austin Hooper
TE - TEN (at JAC)
Austin Hooper signed with the Titans this offseason after being cut loose by the Cleveland Browns. The formerly highest-paid tight end in the league has seen his fantasy stock crash since leaving the Falcons, finishing back-to-back seasons outside the top-20 in TE scoring. Even as the perceived starter in Nashville, Hooper has an extremely low-ceiling in the Titans' run-heavy offense. Despite all the injuries last season, no tight end on TEN saw 45 targets or a greater than 10% target share.
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190.
New England Patriots
DST - NE (at BUF)
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191.
Rachaad White
RB - TB (at ATL)
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192.
Davis Mills
QB - HOU (at IND)
The third-round rookie's surprisingly decent rookie season was a bright spot in an otherwise depressing season for the 2021 Texans. Mills was the QB10 over his final five starts, with nine TD passes and a pair of 300-yard games over that stretch. He's entrenched as Houston's long-term starter yet, but he has a foot in the door.
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193.
Matt Gay
K - LAR (at SEA)
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194.
Darrel Williams
RB - ARI (at SF)
RB Darrel Williams signed with the Cardinals this offseason.
Former teammate Patrick Mahomes vouched for Williams, informing Arizona that he was a back he both liked/trusted. Williams posted 1,000 yards from scrimmage, scored 8 TDs and had zero fumbles on 191 touches in 2021. He also proved that he could shoulder the load with Clyde Edwards-Helaire sidelined with injury. In the six games that Williams was the clear-cut starter in the Chiefs backfield, he averaged 19 fantasy points per game (PPR) on 18.3 touches per game. Also averaged nearly 100 yards from scrimmage (96.3). Williams is the James Conner backup to target across all formats, as he'd likely inherit the RB1 role should the injury-prone starter go down. His body of work as a receiver and goal-line back present him immediate fantasy RB1 upside. The former UDFA led the Chiefs backfield in red-zone touches and averaged 4.5 receptions per game as the starter in 2021. His 47 catches overall ranked ninth. |
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195.
Chuba Hubbard
RB - CAR (at NO)
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196.
Tyler Allgeier
RB - ATL (vs . TB)
Love me some Tyler Allgeier.
The Atlanta Falcons' fifth-round running back ranks 1st in rushing yards after contact (1,847), 2nd in rushing touchdowns (36) 3rd in PFF rushing grade (94.8) among FBS players with at least 150 carries over the past two seasons. I believe he would have been taken by Atlanta in Round 4 if they had a pick available to them, so I don't think it's fair to view the RBs that went in Round 4 in a higher regard. I also don't think it's outlandish to think that he's already the best pure rusher among a backfield that consists of Cordarelle Patterson, Damien Williams and Qadree Ollison. He's proven to be able to shoulder a massive workload as both a rusher and receiver, which is not true of any other back for the Dirty Birds. |
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197.
Marvin Jones Jr.
WR - JAC (vs . TEN)
Marvin Jones' recent track record is super solid, averaging 950 receiving yards and 8 TDs over the past three seasons - including last season when he finished WR35 in total points. But his efficiency was horrible in the disaster that was the Jags in 2021; he averaged just 9.9 points per game. Good for WR51. Woof.
Entering his age-32 season it remains to be seen whether Jones can keep up his steady production in a brand new offense with new pieces littered throughout. However, the fact that he will be starter on the outside in a pass-happy offense is not being considered enough in his WR78 ADP. He's hardly a breakout candidate by any means, but his 120 targets and 19% target share from Trevor Lawrence last season due lend some credence that he's priced at his absolute floor, with WR3 range very realistic with his projected full-time role. His 17 end-zone targets last season ranked fourth-most among all players in 2021. |
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198.
Donovan Peoples-Jones
WR - CLE (at PIT)
Donovan Peoples-Jones is an intriguing late-round dart throw as the Browns' other primary "X" receiver - assuming they don't also bring in free agent Will Fuller. DPJ finished 2021 second in yards per catch (17.6) last season.
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199.
Boston Scott
RB - PHI (vs . NYG)
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200.
Kansas City Chiefs
DST - KC (at LV)
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201.
Jamison Crowder
WR - BUF (vs . NE)
If Jamison Crowder can just do what Cole Beasley did last season - 82 receptions for 693 yards, WR40 in PPR, WR48 in HPPR - he will vastly out-produce his ADP outside the top-60.
Playing in a super pass-heavy offense will allow Crowder the opporuntity to soak up targets underneath, as he has done when healthy for the New York Jets. Just last year, the 29-year old commanded at least five targets in every single game he played without leaving due to injury. In those ten healthy games, the slot receiver averaged nearly five receptions and seven targets per game. |
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202.
Kendrick Bourne
WR - NE (at BUF)
Kendrick Bourne didn't absorb the same high-end target share that Jakobi Meyers did in the Patriots offense in 2021, but he posted career-high efficiency marks across the board. He caught 83% of his targets (2nd) and finished 14th overall in yards per route run (2.01).
After such an impressive first season in New England, it wouldn't be outlandish to see Bourne earn more targets in Year 2. After all, his 70% route participation has room to grow. |
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203.
Brian Robinson Jr.
RB - WAS (vs . DAL)
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204.
Miami Dolphins
DST - MIA (vs . NYJ)
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205.
Daniel Carlson
K - LV (vs . KC)
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206.
George Pickens
WR - PIT (vs . CLE)
The Steelers selected George Pickens at pick No. 52 in the 2022 NFL Draft, with WR3 an area of need and Diontae Johnson (slated for free agency in 2023. I absolutely love the fit for Pickens here with the Steelers, who seem to never miss selecting wideouts on Day 2.
Injuries and off-field issues plagued Pickens' draft stock, but he looks fully healthy based on his testing at the NFL Combine. And Pittsburgh seems like the right spot for him to get his head on straight. I already can't wait for the heated training camp fights between him and Chase Claypool as the gloves come off - well not really - for target supremacy. Pickens' college profile screams that of a true alpha, so I'd be looking to stash him across the board before he is fully unleashed. The Georgia Bulldog WR broke out as a true 18-year old freshman, finishing 2019 as PFF's the 17th-highest-graded receiver in the nation (88.0) - ahead of future NFL wideouts like Jerry Jeudy, Justin Jefferson, Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle. |
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207.
Joshua Palmer
WR - LAC (at DEN)
Mike Williams' return to the Chargers in free agency puts a slight damper on the sophomore breakout for Josh Palmer. But, there's still fantasy appeal to rostering the No. 3 option in a Justin Herbert-led offense.
As a rookie, Palmer averaged over seven targets per game and scored a touchdown in his three games with a 60% snap share. He was also extremely efficient in the end zone, catching three of his five total end-zone targets for TDs. |
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208.
Los Angeles Rams
DST - LAR (at SEA)
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209.
Los Angeles Chargers
DST - LAC (at DEN)
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210.
Dallas Cowboys
DST - DAL (at WAS)
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211.
Curtis Samuel
WR - WAS (vs . DAL)
Curtis Samuel is just one year removed from a top-25 fantasy finish and 23rd-ranked 1.94 yards per route run.
The Washington slot receiver is basically free in early best ball ADP, despite not finishing worse than WR42 in any season he has played at least 13 games. |
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212.
Laviska Shenault Jr.
WR - JAC (vs . TEN)
Laviska Shenault looks like the odd-man-out entering Year 3 with Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones and Zay Jones ahead of him in the target pecking order. Viska-stans might need a trade for him to revive his plummeting fantasy value.
Because his team-leading 21% target rate per route run on 99 targets does suggest that maybe he's not as bad as the market perceives him. Especially considering the wide receivers going into Year 3 drafted in Round 2 that have eclipsed 170 targets since 2018 is a solid group to be associated with. Those names include JuJu Smith-Schuster, D.K. Metcalf, Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool, Courtland Sutton, A.J. Brown, Michael Pittman Jr. and Christian Kirk. |
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213.
David Bell
WR - CLE (at PIT)
David Bell might be my favorite WR to draft from Day 3 of the real NFL draft. He has an awesome landing spot with the Cleveland Browns and quarterback Deshaun Watson .
The Browns understand his limitations as an athlete, but his strengths as an underneath wide receiver can help him produce after the catch. Bell finished third in the FBS in receiving yards on the outside (1,097), second in total forced missed tackles (25) and 10th in PFF receiving grade (86.9) among his draft class. He's a perfect fit alongside prototypical No. 1 WR Amari Cooper and the speedy duo of Donovan Peoples-Jones/Anthony Schwartz. |
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214.
Nico Collins
WR - HOU (at IND)
Nico Collins commanded end-zone targets and high air-yard throws in 2021 but ultimately never put together a true breakout game. He finished behind Brandin Cooks in air yards and all other receiving categories. Still, he should open the 2022 season at worst as the de facto No. 2 option - if John Metchie is not fully back from his torn ACL - for up-and-coming second-year quarterback Davis Mills.
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215.
Ryan Succop
K - TB (at ATL)
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216.
Green Bay Packers
DST - GB (vs . DET)
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217.
A.J. Green
WR - ARI (at SF)
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218.
Marquez Callaway
WR - NO (vs . CAR)
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219.
Evan McPherson
K - CIN (vs . BAL)
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220.
Mark Ingram II
RB - NO (vs . CAR)
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221.
Julio Jones
WR - FA (BYE)
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222.
Adam Trautman
TE - NO (vs . CAR)
He's produced modest numbers in his first two NFL seasons, but the former University of Dayton star has the potential to be a gem.
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223.
Jonnu Smith
TE - NE (at BUF)
Smith signed with the Patriots a day before Hunter Henry did, and some people figured Smith would be the more valuable fantasy asset. Whoops. But Smith is a good athlete who could pop if the Patriots expand his role in the passing game.
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224.
Younghoe Koo
K - ATL (vs . TB)
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225.
Hayden Hurst
TE - CIN (vs . BAL)
Bengals tight end Hayden Hurst is hardly a world-beater, but it's hard to not view him as a winner post-draft. The former Falcon is in sole possession of C.J. Uzomah's vacated role from last season offers some fantasy appeal.
Uzomah's 78% route participation ranked fourth-highest among tight ends in 2021 Every-down tight ends on the field that often in high-scoring environments will stumble into fantasy scoring. It's a highly coveted role primed to ooze fantasy points. However, being on the field doesn't always translate to the requisite fantasy production especially in offenses loaded with other weapons. Uzomah's 13% target rate per route run ranked last among tight ends with at least 40 targets in 2021. Hurst's 15% target rate wasn't much better. It doesn't exactly inspire confidence that Hurst is the clear-cut late-round tight end to target in 2022, but he is well worth targeting late in drafts. Hurst is just one year removed from a TE9 overall finish in 2020. |
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226.
Cleveland Browns
DST - CLE (at PIT)
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227.
Jason Sanders
K - MIA (vs . NYJ)
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228.
Kenyan Drake
RB - LV (vs . KC)
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229.
Matt Prater
K - ARI (at SF)
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230.
Samaje Perine
RB - CIN (vs . BAL)
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231.
Zamir White
RB - LV (vs . KC)
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232.
K.J. Osborn
WR - MIN (at CHI)
K.J. Osborn flashed at times during the 2021 season, but never more so than when he filled in for Adam Thielen. From Weeks 13-17, the second-year pro averaged 12 half-PPR fantasy points per game to go along with six targets.
If Thielen starts to break down entering his age 32-season, Osborn would be the prime benefactor. |
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233.
Terrace Marshall Jr.
WR - CAR (at NO)
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234.
Marcus Mariota
QB - ATL (vs . TB)
The former No. 2 overall draft pick is being penciled in as The Falcons' Week 1 starter, though he'll have to fend off rookie Desmond Ridder. Mariota is a nimble runner, but his passing ability leaves his employers wanting more. Mariota turns 29 in October, so it's probably too late to dream of vast untapped upside.
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235.
Zack Moss
RB - BUF (vs . NE)
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236.
Rodrigo Blankenship
K - IND (vs . HOU)
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237.
Braxton Berrios
WR - NYJ (at MIA)
Braxton Berrios ran a route on 88% of the Jets' dropbacks and commanded a 23% target share in Jamison Crowder's absence in Week 16. The plucky Berrios stepped up again with Crowder out in Week 17, commanding a 35% target share without even leading the New York Jets in routes run. He finished the day catching eight of 12 targets for 65 yards to go along with two touchdowns (one rushing and receiving).
He's worthy of as a depth stash because of his ability to command targets at a high rate: Berrios' 24% target rate per route run over the last two seasons ranks 14th among WRs with at least 100 targets. |
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238.
Arizona Cardinals
DST - ARI (at SF)
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239.
Greg Zuerlein
K - NYJ (at MIA)
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240.
D'Ernest Johnson
RB - CLE (at PIT)
The Cleveland Browns could tendered Johnson to prevent another team from adding him this offseason. He is certainly capable of being more than a third-stringer after an extremely impressive 2021 campaign that saw him finish as PFF's highest-graded rusher (90.6).
Johnson also delivered in his three starts, averaging a whopping 22.6 fantasy points per game. He's a great player to target late with the hope that he finds more opportunity in 2022. Kareem Hunt's contract ends at the end of the 2022 season, so the Browns could move on from him a year early with a mid-year trade and elevate Johnson to the No. 2 on the depth chart. |
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241.
Philadelphia Eagles
DST - PHI (vs . NYG)
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242.
Brevin Jordan
TE - HOU (at IND)
The Miami product enjoyed a decent rookie season, finishing with a 19% target rate per route run and four top-12 weekly finishes over his last nine games.
Jordan also dominated the receiving usage over the team's last two games, running 40 routes to Pharaoh Brown's 18 and Anthony Auclair's five. It's a great sign that Jordan should lock down the primary receiving role at tight end in Houston, especially with Jordan Akins signing with the New York Giants this offseason. It's easy to envision Jordan carving out a solid receiving role in a lackluster/unproven receiving corps behind Cooks. He's an athletic tight end with YAC-ability that I will gladly draft as my second or third tight end across any squad. |
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243.
Justin Jackson
RB - FA (BYE)
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244.
Carolina Panthers
DST - CAR (at NO)
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245.
Dan Arnold
TE - JAC (vs . TEN)
Jaguars traded for him in late September, and Arnold rewarded them with steady production until a knee injury landed him on IR. The Jaguars' signing of Evan Engram casts doubt on Arnold's 2022 usage.
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246.
Tennessee Titans
DST - TEN (at JAC)
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247.
Mike Davis
RB - BAL (at CIN)
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248.
Harrison Butker
K - KC (at LV)
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249.
John Metchie III
WR - HOU (at IND)
The Houston Texans traded multiple picks to move up for John Metchie during the 2022 NFL Draft in a similar fashion to how they acquired Nico Collins a season ago.
The former Alabama wide receiver caught 96 balls for over 1,100 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in his final junior season. He just happened to be overshadowed by Ohio State transfer Jameson Williams. But don't sleep on Metchie because he possesses a nice skillset that will translate well with the Texans. He's a savvy route runner that understands how to get leverage and create separation from defenders. His game reminds me of Eddie Royal. He probably won't ever be a true No. 1, but that doesn't preclude him from carving out a niche role starting from the slot. |
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250.
Robbie Gould
K - SF (vs . ARI)
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251.
Baltimore Ravens
DST - BAL (at CIN)
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252.
Damien Williams
RB - ATL (vs . TB)
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253.
Parris Campbell
WR - IND (vs . HOU)
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254.
Jake Elliott
K - PHI (vs . NYG)
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255.
Pittsburgh Steelers
DST - PIT (vs . CLE)
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256.
Brandon McManus
K - DEN (vs . LAC)
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257.
Byron Pringle
WR - CHI (vs . MIN)
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258.
Bryan Edwards
WR - ATL (vs . TB)
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259.
Mitchell Trubisky
QB - PIT (vs . CLE)
After backing up Josh Allen in Buffalo last season, Trubisky will get a chance to start, this time with the Steelers. He'll have to beat out first-round rookie Kenny Pickett, however. Trubisky's 2018 season with the Bears raised hopes; his 2019 and 2020 seasons dashed them. Running ability and an NFL-caliber arm raise hopes that Trubisky's fantasy value can be rehabilitated.
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260.
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR - NYG (at PHI)
The high second-round draft capital commitment from the The New York Giants are going to get Wan'Dale Robinson on the field sooner rather than later. Considering the same can't be said for guys like Kadarius Toney or any other leftover Giants skill players from the previous regime, we could see Robinson step in Day 1 and offer an immediate impact.
I'm also more optimistic than most that Brian Daboll understands how to use a shorter receiver like Robinson, based on his prior experiences with Cole Beasley and Isaiah McKenzie in Buffalo. And the Giants don't seem overly concerned about listing him at 5-foot-11 after he measured at 5-foot-8 at the NFL Scouting Combine. Go figure. In his first season playing wide receiver, Robinson finished second in the FBS in yards per route run (3.56). The Kentucky product also owns PFF's No. 1 career receiving grade (93.4) in the 2022 draft class. |
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261.
O.J. Howard
TE - BUF (vs . NE)
Once regarded as an elite TE prospect, Howard has been little more than a blocking tight end the last two years. Even with the move to Buffalo, it seems unlikely that Howard will become an impact fantasy contributor.
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262.
Nick Folk
K - NE (at BUF)
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263.
Dustin Hopkins
K - LAC (at DEN)
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264.
Emmanuel Sanders
WR - BUF (vs . NE)
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265.
Cincinnati Bengals
DST - CIN (vs . BAL)
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266.
Tre'Quan Smith
WR - NO (vs . CAR)
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267.
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
RB - TB (at ATL)
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268.
Jared Cook
TE - FA (BYE)
Showed signs of slippage in his age-34 season, with decreased catch rate and yards per catch, and a major crash in yards per target. He'll be 35 this season, and the arrival of Gerald Everett puts Cook's role in doubt.
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269.
Jeff Wilson Jr.
RB - SF (vs . ARI)
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270.
Minnesota Vikings
DST - MIN (at CHI)
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271.
Alec Pierce
WR - IND (vs . HOU)
Alec Pierce earned solid Day 2 draft capital with the Indianapolis Colts, but I'd be hard-pressed to admit I like the landing spot with Matt Ryan. Pierce figures to slide-into that vertical field-stretching role for the Colts vacated by veteran T.Y. Hilton based on the rookie's speed and vertical profile from his college career at Cincinnati. But how valuable of a role is that with the team committed to both Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr. as the clear touch hogs of the offense. Not to mention, Ryan's deep ball rate (9.1%) ranked 32nd out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks in 2021.
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272.
Chicago Bears
DST - CHI (vs . MIN)
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273.
KJ Hamler
WR - DEN (vs . LAC)
K.J. Hamler possesses enticing upside as a speedy slot receiver that could be Russell Wilson's new version of Tyler Lockett, but he could be a total zero with his inability to stay healthy the past two seasons.
Had it not been for the two-touchdowns game versus Carolina back in 2020 - Hamler would probably be viewed closer to Parris Campbell despite the latter being an actual starter on his offense. |
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274.
Chris Boswell
K - PIT (vs . CLE)
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275.
Nelson Agholor
WR - NE (at BUF)
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276.
Ty Johnson
RB - NYJ (at MIA)
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277.
Trey McBride
TE - ARI (at SF)
Incoming rookie from Colorado State put on a show in 2021 with 86 catches for 1,017 yards. Nuanced route runner with a knack for making himself available to QBs.
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278.
C.J. Uzomah
TE - NYJ (at MIA)
He's coming off a 49-493-5 that probably represents the height of his potential. Now that he's gone from the Bengals to the Jets, Uzomah probably shouldn't be on your 2022 target list.
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279.
Jason Myers
K - SEA (vs . LAR)
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280.
Cedrick Wilson Jr.
WR - MIA (vs . NYJ)
Cedrick Wilson will be facing an uphill battle when it comes to demanding targets in an offense with Waddle, Hill, Edmonds and Mike Gesicki Injuries lit the path for Wilson to be productive last season in Dallas and may be required for a second straight year.
After all, Wilson is a 27-year old wide receiver that has yet to total 1,000 total receiving yards since being drafted in 2018. Leaving a high-powered Dallas offense for a Miami offense led by an unproven quarterback makes it less likely Wilson delivers as many spike weeks as he did in 2021 - even as a more full-time player. |
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281.
Kenny Pickett
QB - PIT (vs . CLE)
Pickett wasn't on the prospect radar until he blew up as a fifth-year senior at Pittsburgh, throwing for 4,319 yards and 42 TDs in 13 games. Now, he'll compete with Mitchell Trubisky to be the Steelers' starter after being the only QB taken in the first round of the NFL Draft. Pickett's intangibles might be better than his raw tools, but the tools aren't bad.
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282.
Cole Beasley
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
283.
Wil Lutz
K - NO (vs . CAR)
|
|
284.
Mason Crosby
K - GB (vs . DET)
|
|
285.
Jimmy Garoppolo
QB - SF (vs . ARI)
Fun fact: Jimmy G's career YPA is almost a full yard higher than Tom Brady's. The 49ers are expected to unload Garoppolo to make room for Trey Lance, so Jimmy G's fantasy value will depend on his landing spot. He's completely immobile and needs high-quality pass catchers to bring out his best. Garoppolo finished QB17 in 2019; that's a best-case scenario for 2022.
|
|
286.
Phillip Lindsay
RB - IND (vs . HOU)
|
|
|
287.
Tyrion Davis-Price
RB - SF (vs . ARI)
|
|
288.
Mo Alie-Cox
TE - IND (vs . HOU)
Probably too slow to ever become a coveted fantasy asset. Alie-Cox is hitting free agency this offseason. He'll turn 29 in September.
|
|
289.
Graham Gano
K - NYG (at PHI)
|
|
290.
David Johnson
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
291.
Randall Cobb
WR - GB (vs . DET)
|
|
292.
New York Giants
DST - NYG (at PHI)
|
|
293.
Zay Jones
WR - JAC (vs . TEN)
Zay Jones played better down the stretch than second-year receiver Bryan Edwards, which earned him a three-year $30 million deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Jones averaged a 25% target share, 10.7 half-point fantasy points per game (27th) and 12.8 expected half-point fantasy points per game (18th) in the team's final five games including playoffs. He also led the team in total air yards (1,136). The former Raider is bound to be overlooked in fantasy despite a strong 2021 finish, so consider me a buyer in the very late rounds and in dynasty. Jones will be a starter on the outside and inherit the wide receiver role previously occupied by Laquon Treadwell. The former first-round pick finished the final six weeks of the fantasy season 10th in receiving yards with 381 - 64 per game. Jones, like Treadwell, also finished the last five weeks top-10 in PFF receiving grade versus man coverage - further bolstering Jones' case as a future playmaker on the boundary. |
|
294.
Rex Burkhead
RB - HOU (at IND)
The highest-paid running back on the Houston Texans roster is Rex Burkhead. $2.1 million of Burkhead's $2.35 million contract is fully guaranteed. Meanwhile, Marlon Mack signed a 1-year $2 million deal, and rookie Dameon Pierce was drafted in the fourth round.
I envision Mack/Pierce duking out work on early downs, while Burkhead slides in as the primary pass-catching back after he ranked sixth in route participation over the last four weeks of the 2021 season. The receiving role is the one to target in this backfield for a team that projects to be playing from behind frequently. Not to mention that Burkhead came over from the New England Patriots last year alongside general manager Nick Caserio, so there's a built-in connection from management to the field. It's no coincidence that Burkhead nearly doubled his career highs in rushing attempts, rushing yards, and games started in his first year with Houston in 2021. And over the past two seasons, Burkhead has flashed a high weekly fantasy ceiling. He's crested 22-plus weekly fantasy points thrice since 2020. Mack has totaled 21.5 fantasy points over that span. |
|
|
295.
Jalen Tolbert
WR - DAL (at WAS)
The Dallas Cowboys needed a No. 3 receiver and Jalen Tolbert fits the bill to a tee. The South Alabama product was a mega-producer in the small school college ranks.
The 6-foot-1 and 194-pound deep-ball specialist earned a career 31% dominator rating - top-three in the class - factoring in a redshirt freshman season. Tolbert posted dominator ratings of 35%, 42%, and 42% from his sophomore year onward. He torched defenses downfield as the nation's leader in targets (99), catches (38), and receiving yards (1,402) on targets of 20-plus air yards. Tolbert also boasts a 19-year-old breakout age - his player profile stacks up with some top wideouts from his class. And although Tolbert doesn't possess elite speed - 57th percentile 40-yard dash time - he still understands how to get open deep. He's similar to Adam Thielen in that fashion. If Tolbert can beat out James Washington - on a one-year $1.2M contract - in training camp, he could offer immediate value with Michael Gallup unlikely to be ready for Week 1 coming off a torn ACL. He's got big-play ability that should gel well with quarterback Dak Prescott. |
|
296.
Josh Reynolds
WR - DET (at GB)
|
|
297.
Cairo Santos
K - CHI (vs . MIN)
|
|
298.
Seattle Seahawks
DST - SEA (vs . LAR)
|
|
299.
Jalen Reagor
WR - PHI (vs . NYG)
|
|
300.
Darius Slayton
WR - NYG (at PHI)
|
|
301.
Washington Commanders
DST - WAS (vs . DAL)
|
|
302.
Baker Mayfield
QB - CLE (at PIT)
Mayfield played through a host of injuries last year, including a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder and a fractured humerus bone, but his performance was too bleak to be written off due to poor health. Mayfield threw 17 TD passes and 13 INTs in 14 games and somehow had a 9.3% sack rate despite playing with what's regarded as one of the better offensive lines in the league in Cleveland. It's too early to write off Mayfield entirely, but at best he's a game manager with limited fantasy value.
|
|
303.
Jerick McKinnon
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
304.
Ka'imi Fairbairn
K - HOU (at IND)
|
|
305.
New York Jets
DST - NYJ (at MIA)
|
|
306.
Quintez Cephus
WR - DET (at GB)
|
|
307.
Dyami Brown
WR - WAS (vs . DAL)
|
|
308.
Drew Lock
QB - SEA (vs . LAR)
Three seasons' worth of auditions have gone poorly, but it appears he'll get another in Seattle after being included in part of the package that sent Russell Wilson to Denver. We've seen too few encouraging signs to believe that Lock can still turn into a useful fantasy asset.
|
|
309.
Jacksonville Jaguars
DST - JAC (vs . TEN)
|
|
310.
Matt Breida
RB - NYG (at PHI)
|
|
311.
Sam Darnold
QB - CAR (at NO)
Got off to a fast start in 2021, with five TD passes, five TD runs and three 300-yard games in his first four starts. Then the roof caved in, with Darnold throwing four TD passes and 10 INTs in his other seven starts. So much for the idea that Adam Gase was entirely to blame for Darnold's non-development. He's entering his age-25 season, so there's a flicker of hope left, but time is running out, and he has rookie Matt Corral breathing down his neck.
|
|
312.
Salvon Ahmed
RB - MIA (vs . NYJ)
|
|
313.
Joshua Kelley
RB - LAC (at DEN)
|
|
314.
Duke Johnson Jr.
RB - BUF (vs . NE)
|
|
315.
Randy Bullock
K - TEN (at JAC)
|
|
316.
Sammy Watkins
WR - GB (vs . DET)
|
|
317.
Latavius Murray
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
318.
T.Y. Hilton
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
319.
Quez Watkins
WR - PHI (vs . NYG)
|
|
|
320.
Kyren Williams
RB - LAR (at SEA)
|
|
321.
Chase McLaughlin
K - FA (BYE)
|
|
322.
Isaiah McKenzie
WR - BUF (vs . NE)
Isaiah McKenzie looked primed to take on the starting slot role after the team moved on from Cole Beasley. After all, McKenzie showed up big-time in his last two starts with Beasley sidelined.
But the dream of a full-time role for McKenzie will have to wait after the team signed former Jets slot wide receiver Jamison Crowder (WR - BUF) to a one-year $4M deal. He is making almost as much money in 2021 alone as McKenzie is over two years ($4.4M). Needless to say, Crowder will likely be the Day 1 starter in the slot and fantasy gamers will have to wait for another injury for McKenzie to see a fantasy-worthy role. Remember this coaching staff is the same unit that played 33-year-old Emmanuel Sanders (WR - BUF) over Gabriel Davis (WR - BUF) for 80% of the 2021 season. I don't doubt they will do the same with Crowder and McKenzie in 2022. |
|
323.
Darrynton Evans
RB - CHI (vs . MIN)
|
|
|
324.
Hassan Haskins
RB - TEN (at JAC)
Michigan's Hassan Haskins was one of my favorite running back sleepers before the NFL Draft. I claimed I'd be in on him if he got Round 4 draft capital, and Haskins did exactly that being selected 131st overall.
He broke out in a big way as "the guy" for the Wolverines in 2021, earning a 23 percent dominator rating, raising his career dominator rating to 20 percent. With an identical PFF rushing grade to Breece Hall (91.6) over the last three seasons, Haskins looked primed to exceed expectations in the NFL. He offers a lot of size at 6-foot-2 and 228 pounds, so he can handle a heavy workload. The Michigan product also led his entire class in rushing attempts inside the five-yard line (29), which gives him a real shot at carving out a goal-line role in the pros. Haskins will never see the field as long as Derrick Henry stays healthy. But there's zero doubt in my mind that he's the clear direct back-up for Henry, who showed us last season that he is mortal. |
|
|
325.
Pierre Strong Jr.
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
326.
Malcolm Brown
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
327.
Josh Lambo
K - FA (BYE)
|
|
328.
Greg Joseph
K - MIN (at CHI)
|
|
329.
Devontae Booker
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
|
330.
Jerome Ford
RB - CLE (at PIT)
|
|
331.
Devonta Freeman
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
332.
Eno Benjamin
RB - ARI (at SF)
Eno Benjamin looks slated as the No. 2 complementary running back in the Cards backfield. He profiles more as the pass-catcher at 5-foot-9 and 207 pounds. Tough to see him earning the bellcow work over Darrel Williams if Conner goes down.
|
|
333.
Anthony Firkser
TE - ATL (vs . TB)
|
|
334.
Antonio Brown
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
|
335.
Desmond Ridder
QB - ATL (vs . TB)
Four-year starter at Cincinnati has intriguing mobility and an NFL-caliber arm, but he needs refinement. Ridder isn't likely to start early in his rookie season but will get a shot to replace Marcus Mariota as the Atlanta starter at some point.
|
|
336.
Tevin Coleman
RB - NYJ (at MIA)
|
|
337.
Jaret Patterson
RB - WAS (vs . DAL)
|
|
338.
Harrison Bryant
TE - CLE (at PIT)
Promising youngster has a chance to become the Browns' top TE now that Austin Hooper is out of the picture. The Browns' addition of QB Deshaun Watson helps make Bryant an intriguing late-round dart throw.
|
|
339.
Wayne Gallman Jr.
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
340.
Demarcus Robinson
WR - LV (vs . KC)
|
|
341.
Tyler Conklin
TE - NYJ (at MIA)
Tyler Conklin posted highs across all receiving categories while also serving as the TE15 in fantasy in 2021. He finished ninth in route participation, 12th in target share and ninth in receptions.
His impressive season earned him a three-year deal worth $21 million with the New York Jets. But the Jets also signed ex-Bengals tight end C.J. Uzomah in free agency and drafted Ohio State tight end Jeremy Ruckert in the third round. The situation looks horrible for Conklin in a potential three-way tight end committee in a bad to below average offense. However, the situation alone has made Conklin virtually free across the board in early best ball drafts, and I think he's worth the late-round dart throw. The former Minnesota Viking should be the favorite to earn primary pass-catching duties. |
|
|
342.
Matt Corral
QB - CAR (at NO)
A scary-looking injury in the Ole Miss bowl game turned out to be just a sprained ankle. Corral doesn't have a rocket arm but throws with accuracy and is an aggressive runner. He has a chance to beat out Sam Darnold for the Carolina starting gig, and even if he doesn't, he's still likely to get a look at some point in 2022.
|
|
343.
Eric Ebron
TE - FA (BYE)
|
|
344.
Giovani Bernard
RB - TB (at ATL)
|
|
|
345.
Greg Dulcich
TE - DEN (vs . LAC)
|
|
|
346.
Tyquan Thornton
WR - NE (at BUF)
|
|
|
347.
Keaontay Ingram
RB - ARI (at SF)
|
|
348.
Blake Jarwin
TE - FA (BYE)
Jarwin is still a free agent, and a hip injury casts doubt on his availability for the early part of the 2022 season.
|
|
|
349.
Jelani Woods
TE - IND (vs . HOU)
|
|
350.
Cameron Brate
TE - TB (at ATL)
He was a part-timer in 2021, but Brate has a nose for the end zone and a knack for making himself useful.
|
|
351.
Ricky Seals-Jones
TE - NYG (at PHI)
|
|
352.
Tarik Cohen
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
|
353.
Malik Willis
QB - TEN (at JAC)
A slide into the third round of the NFL Draft was ruinous to Willis' fantasy value. He landed with the Titans, who don't seem to be in any hurry to replace starter Ryan Tannehill. Willis has a big arm and is a potential difference-maker as a runner, but he needs a lot of refinement. Whenever Willis gets his first NFL playing time, the results are more likely to be reminiscent of late-career Cam Newton than current Josh Allen.
|
|
|
354.
Velus Jones Jr.
WR - CHI (vs . MIN)
|
|
355.
Tommy Tremble
TE - CAR (at NO)
Had a promising if statistically modest rookie campaign for a team with major QB issues. Tremble could be an intriguing sleeper if the Panthers make an offseason splash at quarterback.
|
|
356.
Donald Parham Jr.
TE - LAC (at DEN)
His 2021 season ended prematurely with a frightening concussion. The 6-8 Parham is expected to make a full recovery for 2022.
|
|
|
357.
Khalil Shakir
WR - BUF (vs . NE)
|
|
358.
Las Vegas Raiders
DST - LV (vs . KC)
|
|
359.
Jalen Guyton
WR - LAC (at DEN)
|
|
360.
Tristan Vizcaino
K - FA (BYE)
|
|
361.
James Washington
WR - DAL (at WAS)
|
|
362.
Teddy Bridgewater
QB - MIA (vs . NYJ)
Turned in an efficient if unspectacular season for the Panthers in 2020 but failed to unlock the Broncos' considerable pass-catching talent in 2021. Will now back up Tua Tagovailoa in Miami.
|
|
363.
Taysom Hill
QB,TE - NO (vs . CAR)
Hill is a big-time runner but a CFL-caliber passer. The rushing ability gives him fantasy value whenever he sees the field, but the passing limitations prevent him from being anything but a Band-Aid for an NFL team. Possible he opens the 2022 season as the Saints' starter, but he'd probably only be keeping the seat warm for someone else.
|
|
364.
Josiah Deguara
TE - GB (vs . DET)
With Aaron Rodgers staying in Green Bay and Davante Adams leaving, Deguara has a chance to be fantasy-viable. He would have been more appealing if Robert Tonyan hadn't signed with the packers, however.
|
|
365.
Kene Nwangwu
RB - MIN (at CHI)
|
|
366.
Atlanta Falcons
DST - ATL (vs . TB)
|
|
367.
Carlos Hyde
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
368.
Tyler Johnson
WR - TB (at ATL)
|
|
|
369.
Romeo Doubs
WR - GB (vs . DET)
|
|
370.
Detroit Lions
DST - DET (at GB)
|
|
|
371.
Tyler Badie
RB - BAL (at CIN)
|
|
372.
Anthony Schwartz
WR - CLE (at PIT)
|
|
373.
Tyrell Williams
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
|
374.
Danny Gray
WR - SF (vs . ARI)
|
|
|
375.
Justyn Ross
WR - KC (at LV)
|
|
376.
Laquon Treadwell
WR - JAC (vs . TEN)
|
|
377.
Dontrell Hilliard
RB - TEN (at JAC)
|
|
378.
Foster Moreau
TE - LV (vs . KC)
Didn't fully cash in on his chance after Darren Waller got hurt. Moreau has gone from prospect to suspect.
|
|
|
379.
Calvin Austin III
WR - PIT (vs . CLE)
|
|
380.
Geno Smith
QB - SEA (vs . LAR)
Played decently in three 2021 starts in place of the injured Russell Wilson, and now he might have a chance to start over Drew Lock ... unless Seattle brings in another QB.
|
|
381.
Chris Herndon IV
TE - FA (BYE)
|
|
382.
Jimmy Graham
TE - FA (BYE)
|
|
383.
Jordan Howard
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
384.
Dee Eskridge
WR - SEA (vs . LAR)
|
|
385.
Derrick Gore
RB - KC (at LV)
The most appealing part about the KC backfield is identifying the potential goal-line back. And there's a scenario where that guy is Derrick Gore.
New Cardinals RB Darrel Williams played that role last season, and Gore flashed red-zone usage last season in Week 8 with six red-zone touches. Many will point to Gore's undrafted status as a reason to believe he won't be a factor in 2022. But the team's belief in fellow UDFA Williams suggests that the team won't shy away from Gore if he is indeed the best option for the job. He was superior to both Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Ronald Jones last season in PFF rushing grade and yards after contact per attempt. Gore was also uber-efficient in the passing game, finishing fourth in the NFL in yards per route run. It's a small sample size with just nine targets, but it's encouraging that he shows proficiency in the receiving game. |
|
386.
Devin Duvernay
WR - BAL (at CIN)
|
|
387.
Austin Seibert
K - DET (at GB)
|
|
|
388.
Kylen Granson
TE - IND (vs . HOU)
|
|
389.
Houston Texans
DST - HOU (at IND)
|
|
390.
Le'Veon Bell
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
|
391.
Jeremy Ruckert
TE - NYJ (at MIA)
|
|
|
392.
Snoop Conner
RB - JAC (vs . TEN)
|
|
|
393.
Kevin Harris
RB - NE (at BUF)
|
|
394.
Quinn Nordin
K - NE (at BUF)
|
|
395.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
WR - TEN (at JAC)
|
|
|
396.
Daniel Bellinger
TE - NYG (at PHI)
|
|
397.
Olamide Zaccheaus
WR - ATL (vs . TB)
|
|
398.
John Bates
TE - WAS (vs . DAL)
Fourth-rounder acquitted himself well in the latter part of his rookie season after Washington was hit with injuries at TE.
|
|
399.
Jauan Jennings
WR - SF (vs . ARI)
|
|
400.
Kyle Rudolph
TE - FA (BYE)
|
|
|
401.
Abram Smith
RB - NO (vs . CAR)
After going undrafted, rookie Abram Smith signed with the New Orleans Saints as a UDFA with a $222,000 guaranteed contract - one of the biggest guarantees for any rookie free agent around the league in recent years.
It's a strong indicator that Smith will likely crack the final 53-man roster, and his special-teams ability will be his pathway to being active on game day. Just dressing for games is half the battle for many rookies, so for Smith to have a realistic path as a UDFA should not be ignored. And neither should the general ambiguity surrounding Alvin Kamara's legal matters after he was arrested in Las Vegas during the Pro Bowl. If Kamara is suspended for any allotment of time, Smith is looking at a depth chart composed of Mark Ingram, Tony Jones Jr., Dwayne Washington, and Devine Ozigbo. Ingram just turned 32. Jones was a UDFA in 2020 and bombed in his lone start in 2021. Washington has been on the roster for four seasons and has totaled 47 carries. It's not far-fetched to think that Smith is going to have a role on an ascending Saints offense sooner rather than later. He would hardly be the first UDFA success story to come out of New Orleans ie. Khiry Robinson, Chris Ivory, and Pierre Thomas. |
|
402.
Chris Evans
RB - CIN (vs . BAL)
|
|
|
403.
Isaiah Likely
TE - BAL (at CIN)
|
|
404.
Zach Pascal
WR - PHI (vs . NYG)
|
|
405.
James Proche II
WR - BAL (at CIN)
|
|
406.
Gardner Minshew II
QB - PHI (vs . NYG)
His mustache and meme games are strong; his QB skill set makes him better suited to be a high-quality backup than a starter. When he plays, he's good enough to stream against bad defenses, not good enough to be an every-week fantasy starter. Destined to start the 2022 season behind Jalen Hurts.
|
|
|
407.
Cade York
K - CLE (at PIT)
|
|
408.
Joey Slye
K - WAS (vs . DAL)
|
|
409.
Jamal Agnew
WR - JAC (vs . TEN)
|
|
|
410.
Isaih Pacheco
RB - KC (at LV)
|
|
|
411.
Kyle Philips
WR - TEN (at JAC)
I'm disappointed to report that I acquired zero of Titans wide receiver, Kyle Philips, in my rookie drafts. First, he was taken one spot before me by FantasyPros' own Pat Fitzmaurice after I waxed poetic about him on Pat's Fitz on Fantasy podcast. Then he got swept up right before my pick in another dynasty rookie draft.
I believe he has some sneaky Hunter Renfrow-like slot skill that most will overlook, but NFL teams like the Titans will love. Philips commanded a 30 percent target share in 2021 at UCLA and could potentially become a top underneath option for Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee. |
|
412.
Riley Patterson
K - DET (at GB)
|
|
413.
DeeJay Dallas
RB - SEA (vs . LAR)
|
|
414.
Amari Rodgers
WR - GB (vs . DET)
|
|
|
415.
Jalen Wydermyer
TE - BUF (vs . NE)
|
|
416.
Brandon Bolden
RB - LV (vs . KC)
|
|
417.
Juwan Johnson
TE - NO (vs . CAR)
Athletic youngster flashed playmaking potential early in the season but couldn't carve out a significant role for himself. Worth keeping on the radar.
|
|
418.
Jermar Jefferson
RB - DET (at GB)
|
|
|
419.
Jonathan Garibay
K - DAL (at WAS)
|
|
420.
DeSean Jackson
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
421.
Benny Snell Jr.
RB - PIT (vs . CLE)
|
|
422.
Equanimeous St. Brown
WR - CHI (vs . MIN)
|
|
|
423.
Cade Otton
TE - TB (at ATL)
|
|
424.
Zane Gonzalez
K - CAR (at NO)
|
|
425.
Jacoby Brissett
QB - CLE (at PIT)
Still only 29, Brissett has 37 NFL starts under his belt and will draw interest as a backup when he hits the open market as a free agent in March.
|
|
|
426.
Sam Howell
QB - WAS (vs . DAL)
Threw for 38 TDs as a freshman at North Carolina and then boosted his overall efficiency as a sophomore, but his final-year production dipped after teammates Javonte Williams, Michael Carter and Dyami Brown turned pro. Howell won't turn 22 until September, so there's plenty of room for growth here, and his willingness to run is a plus. There may be limited upside, however, and the fact that he fell to the fifth round suggests he won't be pushing for a starting job in Washington this year.
|
|
|
427.
Kennedy Brooks
RB - PHI (vs . NYG)
|
|
428.
Ashton Dulin
WR - IND (vs . HOU)
|
|
429.
Chris Naggar
K - FA (BYE)
|
|
430.
Deonte Harty
WR - NO (vs . CAR)
|
|
431.
Tony Jones Jr.
RB - NO (vs . CAR)
|
|
|
432.
Chigoziem Okonkwo
TE - TEN (at JAC)
|
|
433.
Jordan Love
QB - GB (vs . DET)
Now that the Packers have given Aaron Rodgers a multiyear contract extension, Love's future is cloudy. Love has thrown only 62 passes in two NFL seasons. His lone start -- a 2021 road game against the Chiefs when Rodgers was on the COVID-19 list -- yielded disappointing results. Love has NFL-caliber tools but has offered no evidence that he knows how to use them.
|
|
|
434.
Ty Chandler
RB - MIN (at CHI)
|
|
|
435.
Sincere McCormick
RB - LV (vs . KC)
|
|
436.
Freddie Swain
WR - SEA (vs . LAR)
|
|
437.
Ryan Santoso
K - JAC (vs . TEN)
|
|
438.
Jordan Akins
TE - NYG (at PHI)
|
|
439.
Rashard Higgins
WR - CAR (at NO)
|
|
440.
Jacob Harris
TE - LAR (at SEA)
Harris had what amounted to a redshirt season with the Rams in 2021. The uber-athletic developmental prospect could eventually blossom into a star, but it might take time.
|
|
441.
Ryan Griffin
TE - CHI (vs . MIN)
|
|
|
442.
Erik Ezukanma
WR - MIA (vs . NYJ)
|
|
443.
Damoun Patterson
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
444.
Mike Boone
RB - DEN (vs . LAC)
|
|
445.
Andy Dalton
QB - NO (vs . CAR)
Now 34, the Red Rifle won't get a chance to start anywhere, but he's the sort of veteran backup who'll draw interest when he hits free agency in March.
|
|
446.
Tylan Wallace
WR - BAL (at CIN)
|
|
447.
Will Dissly
TE - SEA (vs . LAR)
|
|
|
448.
Jalen Nailor
WR - MIN (at CHI)
|
|
449.
Jeremy McNichols
RB - ATL (vs . TB)
|
|
450.
Ryan Fitzpatrick
QB - FA (BYE)
Was supposed to be Washington's starter in 2021 but sustained a major hip injury early in Week 1 and missed the rest of the season. He's a free agent, and it's not clear whether he'll return to be a backup somewhere or announce his retirement and bring a fascinating career to an end.
|
|
451.
John Ross
WR - FA (BYE)
|
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452.
Zonovan Knight
RB - NYJ (at MIA)
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453.
Tyrod Taylor
QB - NYG (at PHI)
Taylor is a free agent and figures to land as a backup somewhere. He can still run even though he'll be entering his age-33 season, but he's always been a below-average passer.
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454.
Kylin Hill
RB - GB (vs . DET)
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|
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455.
Jake Ferguson
TE - DAL (at WAS)
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456.
Kalen Ballage
RB - FA (BYE)
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457.
Anthony McFarland Jr.
RB - PIT (vs . CLE)
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|
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458.
Jerrion Ealy
RB - KC (at LV)
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459.
N'Keal Harry
WR - NE (at BUF)
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|
460.
Breshad Perriman
WR - TB (at ATL)
|
|
461.
Auden Tate
WR - ATL (vs . TB)
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462.
Keelan Cole Sr.
WR - LV (vs . KC)
|
|
463.
Craig Reynolds
RB - DET (at GB)
|
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464.
Miles Boykin
WR - PIT (vs . CLE)
|
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465.
Denzel Mims
WR - NYJ (at MIA)
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466.
Tyler Huntley
QB - BAL (at CIN)
Made four starts in place of the injured Lamar Jackson in 2021. Huntley ran for two TDs and threw for two TDs in a Week 15 win over the Packers, finishing as the QB1 for the week, but his overall performance in his second NFL season was a mixed bag at best. Huntley's rushing ability makes him worth monitoring.
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|
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467.
Jashaun Corbin
RB - NYG (at PHI)
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|
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468.
Noah Grey
TE - KC (at LV)
|
|
469.
JaMycal Hasty
RB - SF (vs . ARI)
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|
|
470.
Charlie Kolar
TE - BAL (at CIN)
Incoming rookie from Iowa State has been consistently productive the last three years. At 6-6, 260 pounds, he looks the part.
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471.
Royce Freeman
RB - HOU (at IND)
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