Fantasy Football Player Notes
2023 Draft Rankings
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1.
Christian McCaffrey
RB - SF (vs . LAR)
CMC was traded to the 49ers prior to the team's Week 7 game against the Kansas City Chiefs. But it didn't take long for him to take on a massive role, going for 40-plus fantasy points in just his second game in a San Fran uniform. He would go on to lead all running backs in fantasy points scored from Weeks 8-17 averaging 20.5 fantasy half-points per game (also first). From Week 8 onward (13 games including postseason play), CMC averaged 19.5 points per game and 17.3 expected fantasy points per game. Both would have ranked first among all RBs in 2022. McCaffrey averaged nearly 20 touches per game - 76% average snap share in non-blowout games - while catching nearly five balls per game as PFF's third-highest-graded running back. Even with the 49ers opening the season with a very crowded offense in 2023, McCaffrey while healthy is the best bet to see the highest production among the talented group in the Bay Area.
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2.
Jonathan Taylor
RB - IND (vs . HOU)
2023 was a year to forget for the consensus 1.01 in last year's fantasy football drafts. Jonathan Taylor underperformed as the RB30 in 11 games played averaging 12.6 fantasy points as the RB18 when healthy. JT's usage was that of a top-8 running back - 8th in expected points per game, 4th in touches per game (20) - but a lack of touchdowns decimated his fantasy stock in the Colts' anemic offense. After scoring a combined 33 TDs through his 1st two seasons, Taylor scored just four rushing TDs in 2022. From an efficiency standpoint, I'd expect a bounce-back effort from Taylor in 2023. He will be healthier in 2023 and rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson's mobility under center should increase JT's yards per carry. When Taylor first returned from injury (Weeks 10-13 in the 2022 season) he ranked as the RB3 overall. And he should experience some positive TD regression entering the final year of his rookie deal. Although it should be noted that with Richardson under center, Taylor won't cannibalize all the goal-line carries. However, a mobile quarterback didn't stop Shane Steichen's running back Miles Sanders from scoring 13 TDs in 2022. Considering the wide talent gap and proven production from Taylor compared to Sanders, I'd bet Steichen's new RB1 will reach double-digit scores even if his rookie QB runs in a few himself.
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3.
Bijan Robinson
RB - ATL (at NO)
Texas running back Bijan Robinson was the consensus No. 1 RB across all pre-draft publications and was selected 8th overall in the 2023 NFL Draft by the Atlanta Falcons.
Robinson finished the 2022 college football season as PFF's second highest-graded rusher in the FBS, tallying 18 rushing TDs and 1,575 rushing yards en route to a 37% dominator rating in his final year as a Texas Longhorn. He forced 104 missed tackles (40% broken tackle rate) which has shown to be super predictive of success rushing at the NFL level. Compared to last year's running back class, only Breece Hall posted a higher dominator rating (40%). Factor in that Robinson also finished third among RBs in yards per catch (16.5) with zero drops and there's no question as to why he's the locked-in 1.01 for rookie drafts and top-3-ranked running back in season-long formats. At 5-foot-11 and 215 pounds, Robinson has the requisite size and all the tools to be a successful three-down running back in Arthur Smith's offense. Last season in Atlanta's offense, Tyler Allgeier finished as PFF's highest-graded rookie running back and 6th in rushing EPA as a former 5th-round pick. Allgeier also averaged nearly 18 carries and 96 rushing yards per game from Week 13 onward. If Robinson inherits that workload, he is easily projecting 300-plus carries and 1,500 rushing yards in an offense that ranked first in early down run rate and +13% in run rate above expectation. |
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4.
Austin Ekeler
RB - LAC (vs . KC)
No player has scored more touchdowns over the past two seasons, than Austin Ekeler. The Chargers' red-zone machine scored 18 TDs (5 receiving, 13 rushing) a year after scoring 20 touchdowns in 2021. Simply put, those that faded Ekeler due to TD regression narratives got burned this past season. And the touchdowns were just part of Ekeler's RB1 finish in half-point scoring, as he lead all RBs in receptions and targets, which substantially boosted his fantasy numbers. Ekeler was fully unlocked as a receiver with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams combining for 13 missed games. Until the Chargers WRs can prove they can stand the test of a 17-game season, Ekeler will remain the focal point of LA's offense. Especially if the Chargers fail to make any worthwhile addition in their backfield, because nobody currently on the depth chart is "forcing" their way onto the field.
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5.
Saquon Barkley
RB - NYG (vs . PHI)
Saquon Barkley was finally healthy in 2022 and reaped the rewards of playing in a much better offensive environment. He finished as the RB5 overall and in points per game, as he was able to recapture his explosive upside as both a rusher and receiver. Barkley finished second in overall touches (352) and backfield opportunity share (80%) behind only Josh Jacobs through 17 weeks. He also scored 10 rushing TDs with 23 carries inside the 10-yard line. In 2021, Barkley totaled just 13 red-zone touches all season. Let Barkley's return to glory show that you want to target young impending free agent RBs in improved offensive situations that project to earn high volume with proven records of production.
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6.
Nick Chubb
RB - CLE (at CIN)
Nick Chubb just put together the quietest 1,525 rushing-yard season in recent memory. The Browns running back averaged 5 yards per carry (again) and posted a career-high 13 touchdowns. He finished the year as the RB6 overall with a top 10 backfield opportunity share (64%), but most of his fantasy production came prior to Deshaun Watson returning to the lineup. During Weeks 1-12, Chubb was the RB4 overall and in points per game. From Weeks 13-17 with Watson at quarterback, he was the RB23 overall and RB33 in points per game. These splits likely won't carry over into 2023 based on Watson likely boosting the offense's overall efficiency making Chubb a near-bust-proof draft pick based on his track record of consistency. Chubb also can capture a more prominent role as a receiver with Kareem Hunt and D'Ernest Johnson no longer on the roster. 2022 5th-rounder Jerome Ford is pegged as the No. 2 RB. In Week 18, Chubb played a season-high 75% snap share, ran a route on 71% of dropbacks and caught 5-of-6 targets (22% target share) for 45 yards.
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7.
Derrick Henry
RB - TEN (vs . JAC)
Derrick Henry made fantasy drafters that overlooked him look silly in 2022, finishing the season as the RB4 overall and in points per game (18.3). He finished second in carries and third in rushing yards (23.4 touches per game) while also posting career highs in targets, receptions and yards per route run. The bad offensive situation hardly influenced Henry's fantasy numbers and he did not seem hampered by the foot injury that knocked him out of the second half of the 2021 season. Fading Henry in 2022 was betting on him to hit the wall playing behind a shaky offensive line finally. And that bet did not go well. But another year of a heavy workload combined with the Titans' grim 2023 outlook with major questions on offense, will bring concerns about drafting Henry early in 2023.
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8.
Josh Jacobs
RB - LV (vs . DEN)
Josh Jacobs was arguably the most valuable fantasy asset during the fantasy football regular season based on his finish as the RB2 overall in relation to his super cheap draft-day ADP. The market was convinced that Jacobs would become part of a dreaded RB-by-committee under new head coach Josh McDaniels, but that was hardly the case. He was a full-blown bellcow for the Raiders leading the NFL in touches through 17 weeks. The 24-year-old is returning to Las Vegas on the franchise tag after leading the NFL with 1,653 rushing yards. With a similar cast of characters returning as depth behind him, it's hard to envision the Raiders not heavily leaning on him again as a true featured back.
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9.
Justin Jefferson
WR - MIN (at DET)
The Vikings WR finished first in fantasy points scored, 10th in target share (28%), third in yards per route run (2.70) and second in expected fantasy points per game (15.9) in 2022. His 11.1 expected TDs and 26 red-zone targets tied for first among all WRs. With Adam Thielen's TD presence gone - and Jefferson coming off a curiously low 8-TD year (two fewer than in 2021) - I expect him to score inside the double-digits in 2023.
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10.
Tony Pollard
RB - DAL (at WAS)
Tony Pollard will play for the Cowboys on the franchise tag in 2023. Ezekiel Elliott has already been released after showing a major lack of juice as a rusher in 2022, averaging a career-low 3.7 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Pollard finished the season as the fantasy RB7 - despite ranking outside the top 25 in touches per game - as PFF's 3rd-highest graded running back. Pollard scored more fantasy points than any other running back (19.3 per game) from Weeks 7-16 when he was consistently playing 53% or more of the snaps as the team's featured back. The team added Ronald Jones in free agency and drafted Deuce Vaughn late on Day 3, but neither are threats to a healthy Pollard's touch volume.
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11.
Travis Kelce
TE - KC (at LAC)
All hail the king of tight ends! Travis Kelce has finished TE1 in PPR fantasy scoring in six of the last seven seasons, settling for a runner-up finish behind Mark Andrews in 2021. The gap between Kelce and all other tight ends was a vast chasm in 2022. Kelce averaged 19.2 PPR points; the next-closes tight end, T.J. Hockenson, averaged 13.3 fantasy points. Kelce has strung together seven consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, and he's averaged 8.4 touchdowns per year over that span. In 2022, he had a career-high 110 catches for 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns. Age is the only real concern for Kelce, who turns 34 in October. But he's been indestructible for most of his career. He missed a game in 2020 due to COVID-19, but Kelce hasn't missed a game due to injury over the last nine years. Kelce is a worth first-round pick in fantasy drafts, and you can make a strong case that he should be a top-five pick.
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12.
Ja'Marr Chase
WR - CIN (vs . CLE)
I fully expect Justin Jefferson to be the consensus No. 1 wide receiver, but Ja'Marr Chase will be right on his heels as the No. 2. Chase led all WRs in red-zone targets per game (28 in 14 games played) and expected fantasy half-PPR points per game (16.4). Therefore, he's an extremely strong bet to finish No. 1 in red-zone targets and receiving touchdowns in 2023. His 22 receiving touchdowns through his first two seasons are the most by any WR since Odell Beckham Jr. In the games that Chase was healthy this year, he also posted a superior target share (30% vs. 28%) and identical air yards share (39%) to Jefferson. All things being considered, Chase also has a quarterback that could easily throw for 50 TDs. Kirk Cousins won't toss 40-plus touchdowns in this lifetime.
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13.
Cooper Kupp
WR - LAR (at SF)
Cooper Kupp was originally in the S Tier of my 2023 WR rankings, but I moved him down in regard to concerns about Matthew Stafford's health. However, I still think Kupp will produce at an extremely high level if he and Stafford are healthy. Last year he led all WRs in points per game (18.4) while commanding the league's second-highest target share (31.3%) before his injury.
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14.
Tyreek Hill
WR - MIA (vs . BUF)
Tyreek Hill showed no decline with the move from Kansas City to South Beach. Hill was the WR3 in fantasy points per game, accumulating five weeks with 140 or more receiving yards. He led the league in deep targets while scoring nine total touchdowns (fourth). Hill amassed a ridiculous 31.6% target share (second-best) while ranking first in yards per route run. If the Dolphins scheme him up more targets in the red zone next season (40th among wide receivers), he could finish as the WR1 overall.
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15.
Breece Hall
RB - NYJ (at NE)
There's no denying that Breece Hall possesses the talent to be one of the best running backs in the NFL after a stellar rookie season that was unfortunately cut short by a torn ACL. The Jets' first-year running back was the RB6 in half-PPR points per game in just seven games played (15.4). He averaged 5.8 yards per carry as a rusher and ranked fourth in yards after contact per attempt (4.13) before his season-ending knee injury. Hall also ranked fourth in RB receiving yards while posting an elite 34.4% target rate per route run. The only hesitance with drafting Hall stems from his October ACL injury that can keep guys off the field for nine to 12 months. Although the latest reports suggest that Hall is progressing faster than expected and the team believes he could be ready for training camp. Just do whatever you can to get this guy on your fantasy team.
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16.
Travis Etienne Jr.
RB - JAC (at TEN)
From Weeks 7-17 - removing the game versus Baltimore when Travis Etienne left with an injury - the Jaguars running back averaged 15 fantasy points per game (RB8 in points per game) and was the standing RB10 in total half-points scored. ETN would proceed to finish the 2022 fantasy regular season tied for 5th in carries inside the 10-yard line (23), but he only scored four touchdowns on those carries. He's primed to see his TD numbers climb with the backfield all but his from the get-go in 2023 in ascending offense. Etienne also just scratched the surface of how he can contribute in the passing game. The receiving "role" has been his in terms of routes run most weeks in 2022, but targets did not always follow with Trevor Lawrence preferring Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram - who all stayed healthy in 2022. If one of those guys goes down in 2023 we will probably see ETN see a boosted receiving role. The second-year rusher averaged a 22% target rate per route in 3 of his last four games played. No. 2 running back/pass-catcher JaMycal Hasty, former Cleveland Brown D'Ernest Johnson and 2023 third-rounder Tank Bigsby are behind him on the current depth chart.
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17.
Davante Adams
WR - LV (vs . DEN)
Nobody boasted a higher target share than Davante Adams in 2022. The ex-Packers WR showed the entire world he didn't need Aaron Rodgers, hanging a league-leading 32.3% target share while finishing third in fantasy points per game (16.8). He even showed that he could thrive without Derek Carr, catching 7 balls for 153 yards and 2 TDs in a Week 17 contest with Jarrett Stidham under center.
The obvious concerns about Adams are his age (will be 31 in December) and how he will gel with Jimmy Garoppolo as his new QB. But Adams showed zero signs of aging with the league's fifth highest yards per route run (2.45) as PFF's second-highest graded WR. I also don't believe the fit with Jimmy G is as poor as many may lead on. Garoppolo is an accurate quarterback - 6th in completion rate last season - which should allow Adams to vacuum up targets and add yardage after the catch. I also fully expect any QB issues to be mitigated to some extent by sheer volume, as the depth chart is barren behind Adams and Jakobi Meyers for targets. Hunter Renfrow is expected to be traded or cut by June 1st. |
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18.
CeeDee Lamb
WR - DAL (at WAS)
Lamb finished with the quietest 100 receptions (107) and 1,300 receiving yards (1,359) season in recent memory as the WR7 in fantasy. The "CeeDee Lamb alpha season" we have been waiting for finally came to fruition. He was seventh in target per route run rate and sixth in yards per route run as he broke out as one of the league's elite talents. Even with Mike McCarthy calling plays in 2023, Lamb remains primed for another WR1 campaign.
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19.
Stefon Diggs
WR - BUF (at MIA)
Diggs remains among the elite wide receivers in the NFL. He has now stacked three consecutive seasons with at least 100 receptions, 1,225 receiving yards, and eight receiving scores. Diggs was the WR6 in fantasy points per game while also ranking sixth in open rate (per ESPN analytics). He also finished top-ten in target share (tenth), red zone targets (fourth), and yards per route run (third). Diggs could begin to slow down as he's entering his age 30 season, but I fully believe he has at least 1-2 more electric seasons as a top 5-10 fantasy wide receiver before the cliff arrives.
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20.
A.J. Brown
WR - PHI (at NYG)
Being high on A.J. Brown was a big hit for me in 2022, as the Eagles' WR1 finished as the WR4. I acknowledged his uber-talent from his days in Tennessee, combined with an offense that would be willing to throw more than his old team would unlock his fantasy football ceiling.
He did just that, finishing 8th in points per game (15.0) with a 29% target share. He posted the NFL's 6th-highest air yards share (39%) despite running fewer routes than his teammate DeVonta Smith. AJB tied a bow on his first year in Philadelphia second overall in yards per route run (2.89) behind only Tyreek Hill and 6th in yards after the catch per reception. The 26-year-old remains in his uber-prime and needs to be valued as such. |
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21.
Najee Harris
RB - PIT (at BAL)
The Pittsburgh Steelers running back took a slight step backward in his second season, falling to RB14 in points per game after a top-5 fantasy season as a rookie. However, his usage metrics were still very strong across the board. Harris still operated as a pseudo-workhorse ranking 6th in opportunity share (70%) and 8th in total touches through the first 17 weeks of the season. Harris also improved drastically after the team's bye week operating as the RB7 in points per game over the last 9 weeks of the season. After tallying zero games with 20 carries through the first 8 weeks, Harris totaled 5 games with 20-plus carries during the second half of 2022. Should the Steelers undergo an offensive surge in Kenny Pickett's second season with a drastically improved offensive line, Harris could easily get back into the top-tier fantasy RB tier.
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22.
Mark Andrews
TE - BAL (vs . PIT)
After catching 107 passes for 1,361 yards and nine touchdowns and leading all tight ends in fantasy scoring in 2021, Mark Andrews was off to a hot start in 2022 before his production fell off in October. Andrews had 39-455-5 over his first six games but then had 34-392-0 over his last nine games while dealing with knee and shoulder issues, along with the late-season absence of injured QB Lamar Jackson. The upside remains vast for the 27-year-old Andrews, who's a worthy TE target if you miss out on Travis Kelce.
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23.
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB - NE (vs . NYJ)
Damien Harris has been replaced by human meat shield James Robinson on a monopoly money and heavily incentive-based contract making him no lock to make the roster. The low commitment suggests that Rhamondre Stevenson's role in 2023 will be more of what we saw from Weeks 5-16 when he was the RB13 in points per game as the Patriots' lead back. And even when Harris played alongside Stevenson, the big running back finished third in route participation (58%) and targets (82) among running backs.
Recall that Stevenson's strong campaign en route to an RB10 finish was not fueled by touchdowns. Stevenson was one of the worst RBs converting from inside the 10-yard line as he scored just thrice despite 19 goal-line carries. His teammate Harris scored thrice from inside the 10, on just 6 carries. If Stevenson experiences positive TD regression with the red zone role all but his, he will build off a strong sophomore season as PFF's 11th-highest graded rusher. It's his backfield with little competition for touches in an offense that should be substantially better than last season. |
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24.
Kenneth Walker III
RB - SEA (at ARI)
Kenneth Walker III stood as the RB8 from Weeks 6-17 after Rashaad Penny was placed on IR with a season-ending injury. The rookie was the RB9 in points per game. If you remove the two games, he missed due to injury (Weeks 13/14) he averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game, which would have placed him as the RB8 in points per game. Walker's late ADP last season made him a draft-day steal.
We all knew that Rashaad Penny was never going to be "the guy" for the long run based on his injury track record and that Walker would likely take over RB1 duties as an uber-talented second-round pick. He did just that and got absolutely FED after returning from a late-season ankle injury. Walker was either consistently playing 70 percent-plus snaps or carrying the ball 23-plus times. And at times, we even saw Walker earn targets while leading the backfield in routes run. But overall, he underwhelmed as a receiver as he did at the college level. And his tendency to look for home runs rushes resulted in a rushing success rate that ranked second-to-last (31.4%) among rushers with at least 100 carries in 2022. He also missed games because of injuries. And his path to RB1 upside will be that much tougher to realize after the team added Zach Charbonnet in the second round of this year's draft. Charbonnet posted the 5th-highest PFF receiving grade and tied for first in receptions per game (3.7) among his draft class. The former UCLA running back also finished with the highest positive run rate (57%) and lowest bust rate (4%) among drafted running backs. The rookie Seahawk can't deliver explosive rushes like Walker, but he can be trusted to hit doubles as a rusher and receiver consistently. That's concerning for those hoping Walker was stepping into a workhorse role this season, which was very appealing about his fantasy profile last year. |
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25.
Jaylen Waddle
WR - MIA (vs . BUF)
Jaylen Waddle enjoyed an explosive sophomore season as the underneath complement to Tyreek Hill in the Dolphins' high-flying aerial attack. Waddle was the WR12 in fantasy, ranking tenth in YAC, seventh in receiving yards, and 11th in total touchdowns. Waddle was also fourth in yards per route run and third in fantasy points per target. He's an ascending alpha wide receiver who could easily lead the Dolphins in receiving in 2023 if Tyreek Hill shows any signs of slowing down. Invest in second and third-year wide receivers always. This is the way.
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26.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR - DET (vs . MIN)
Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of my other favorite targets in this range. I feel so comfortable pushing the draft button on him in Round 2 with zero hesitance to speak of. His 32% target rate per route run trailed only Tyreek Hill in 2022.
The Lions also own a top-10 schedule for the entire season and through the first 6 weeks of the year. With no Jameson Williams and a slate of favorable defensive matchups, there will be no stopping the burn from the Sun God himself. Detroit is tied with Jacksonville with the most favorable strength of schedule for fantasy WRs this season. |
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27.
Garrett Wilson
WR - NYJ (at NE)
From Day 1, Garrett Wilson was my favorite rookie WR from the 2022 class. The dude could get open at will and check off all the boxes as an early declare being selected inside the top 10. And he did not disappoint. The former Buckeye commanded a 53% target share in Week 18 to close out a rookie season with a 25% target share, 86% route participation and 146 targets (top-10), despite not being a full-time player until Week 8. WR22 overall and WR20 in expected points per game.
Entering 2023, Wilson will have a major upgrade at quarterback with Aaron Rodgers under center. Last year in games started by non-Zach Wilson Jets QBs, Wilson averaged over 17 fantasy points, 6 catches, 11 targets, and 82 receiving yards per game. Top-10 fantasy WR numbers. If Rodgers can just be accurate throwing the ball (seems manageable), Wilson will crush it in 2023. No Jets QB completed more than 60% of their passes last season. Rodgers completed 64.6% of his passes last season, which was close to his career average (65.3%). Wilson is also a prime candidate to experience positive TD regression after finishing as just one of three WRs with 1,000 receiving yards to score fewer than 5 TDs. |
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28.
Tee Higgins
WR - CIN (vs . CLE)
Tee Higgins saw declines across the board last season as he fell from WR12 in fantasy points per game to WR26. His final stat lines look eerily similar, but we must remember he accomplished his 2021 accolades in only 14 games. Higgins saw declines in his PFF receiving grade (82.8 vs. 78.8), target share (23.9% vs. 18.6%), and yards per route run (2.18 vs. 1.80 per PFF). In 2021 Higgins competed with Ja'Marr Chase as the complimentary co-lead of the Bengals' passing attack, but we saw that change in 2022. After Chase returned in Week 13, he saw a 29.6% target share and 38.3% air yard share, while Higgins lagged at 20.2% and 31.1%. With Chase distancing himself more from Higgins in the pecking order, Higgins is best valued as a WR2 in 2023.
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29.
J.K. Dobbins
RB - BAL (vs . PIT)
Coming back from major knee surgery, J.K. Dobbins' 2022 season debut was delayed until Week 3. And he posted middling results, failing to surpass 50 rushing yards or 13 carries in any game with little receiving usage to speak of (6 targets). It was revealed that Dobbins needed another knee surgery after Week 6 and he was placed on IR until Week 14. It wasn't until Dobbins came back later in the year that fantasy managers got a glimpse of what the talented RB displayed as a rookie. The Ravens RB1 played in five games (including playoffs) averaging 6.6 yards per carry, 92 rushing yards, and 14 carries per game. Although he still split time with Gus Edwards - nearly identical carry totals in the Wild Card Round loss to the Bengals - and Dobbins' receiving usage remained obsolete with just 7 targets total to close out the year (5 of which came versus Cincinnati).
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30.
Chris Olave
WR - NO (vs . ATL)
Chris Olave ended his strong rookie season 8th in total air yards (1,531) while commanding a 25% target share and 10th-ranked air yards share (38%). He was the WR26 in points per game (11.0), 6th in yards per route run (2.42) and 8th in target rate per route run (28%). One of the most efficient seasons we have ever seen from a rookie WR. His downfield skill set and per-route efficiency will gel extremely well with his new quarterback, Derek Carr, in 2023.
Olave is also a prime candidate to experience positive TD regression after finishing as just one of three WRs with 1,000 receiving yards to score fewer than 5 TDs. |
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31.
DeVonta Smith
WR - PHI (at NYG)
The Eagles utilized DeVonta Smith in a different role in 2022 than during his rookie season, and the results were beautiful. In 2021 Smith was ninth in deep targets and sixth in aDOT among wide receivers as Philly rolled him out a field stretcher. While Smith was solid in this role, his upside as a zone-destroying intermediate-level threat was seized in 2022. Smith still finished 19th in deep targets among wideouts, but his aDOT dropped to 9.9 (65th) as he began to gobble up targets. Smith was 13th in targets (136), 14th in target share (27.0%), and 19th in target per route run rate (26.2%). He finished with 95 receptions (ninth-best), 1,196 receiving yards (eighth), and seven total touchdowns (14th) as the WR14 in fantasy. Smith was 18th in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). With a consolidated target tree and an ascending quarterback talent in Philly, Smith is poised to be a solid WR2 again in 2023.
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32.
George Kittle
TE - SF (vs . LAR)
George Kittle remains one of the NFL's most talented tight ends and is arguably the hardest to tackle. He's coming off a strange season in which he scored a career-high 11 touchdowns but averaged 51 receiving yards per game -- the fewest since his rookie year in 2017. Kittle has been remarkably efficient as a pass catcher, with a career average of 9.6 yards per target. The question is whether Kittle will be targeted often enough to suit his fantasy managers. The 49ers are in flux at the QB position, and Kittle will have to share targets with RB Christian McCaffrey and WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.
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33.
Dalvin Cook
RB - MIN (at DET)
We may have finally seen the end of Dalvin Cook's elite status among fantasy RBs in 2022. The Vikings star RB finished dead last among all ball carries in rushing EPA and rushes for zero or negative yardage. Cook ended the season as the RB8 overall and RB10 in points per game despite earning the league's 4th-highest opportunity share (78%). With Minnesota re-investing in the running back position with Alexander Mattison returning, we could see Cook's role on offense reduced in 2023.
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34.
Deebo Samuel
WR - SF (vs . LAR)
Without his "wide back" role and with the 49ers bottling him up as a check-down specialist again, Deebo Samuel struggled to a WR28 finish in 2022. He still drew a strong share of the 49ers' passing offense with a 25.4% target share (19th), but his aDOT was 4.2 (102nd), and he only saw five deep targets (108th) and 12 red zone looks (36th). Without the rushing equity and high-leverage roles to help pad his fantasy production, Samuel dissolved into a WR3. With the quarterback situation remaining unsettled in San Francisco in 2023 and the onus remaining on running the ball, Samuel will likely disappoint if you're counting on WR2 production.
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35.
T.J. Hockenson
TE - MIN (at DET)
A midseason trade to the Vikings invigorated T.J. Hockenson in 2022. In seven games with the Lions, he averaged 6.1 targets and had 26 catches in seven games. After the trade, Hockenson averaged 8.6 targets in Minnesota and had 60 catches in 10 games. He also had 10 catches for 129 yards in the Vikings' playoff loss to the Giants. Entering his age-26 season, Hockenson is in the prime of his career and is an attractive option at the TE position now that he's with a team eager to leverage his pass-catching talents.
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36.
Patrick Mahomes II
QB - KC (at LAC)
Arguably the best pure passer to ever play in the NFL, Patrick Mahomes enters his age-28 season at the height of his powers. Mahomes led all players in fantasy scoring last season with 428.4 points, giving him his second QB1 finish. In his five full seasons as a starter, Mahomes has averaged 303 passing yards and 23.95 fantasy points per game. Playing his first season without WR Tyreek Hill, who left for Miami, Mahomes finished the 2022 season with a career-high 5,250 passing yards and a league-high 41 TD passes. Mahomes is the safest bet you can make at quarterback.
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37.
Amari Cooper
WR - CLE (at CIN)
Amari Cooper finally turned into the high-volume receiver we have wanted for years as he finished as the WR17. Cooper amassed a 26.1% target share (16th), a 26.1% target per route run rate (20th), and a 38.3% air yard share (seventh). Cooper will be entering his age 29 season, so there's some concern if his production could begin to taper off. Cooper turned back the hands of time with his highest yards per route run last season since 2019. Cooper was also 12th in red zone and deep targets. As long as Deshaun Watson can return to some shade of his former self at quarterback, Cooper should be able to turn in another WR2 campaign.
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38.
Aaron Jones
RB - GB (vs . CHI)
Drafters were expecting Aaron Jones to lead the Green Bay Packers in receptions and receiving yards in the post-Davante Adams lineup, which did not come to fruition. Although his 59 catches did rank second on the team behind only Allen Lazard, Jones caught fewer passes than the year before. His catches per game (3.5) were identical to the year before. He saw a career-high in targets (72), but that was based on his 17 games played. His 4.3 targets per game were also identical to the year before. And Jones was the epitome of a boom-or-bust running back that his fantasy managers are too familiar with that isn't super obvious based on his RB9 finish and RB12 status in points per game. A.J. Dillon got more involved in the second half of the season, especially in the red zone. From Week 9 onward, Dillon out-carried Jones inside the 10-yard line 14 to 5. And they scored the same amount of points total from Week 11 through Week 17, with Dillion scoring 6 rushing TDs. If Dillon's goal-line role carries over from the tail-end of the 2022 season, that significantly could hinder Jones' fantasy upside even after a year that saw the 28-year-old finish second in PFF rushing grade. Dillon finished 5th in PFF rushing grade last season and will hit free agency at the end of the 2023 season.
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39.
Miles Sanders
RB - CAR (vs . TB)
Miles Sanders signed with the Carolina Panthers reuniting him with many familiar faces from his days with the Philadelphia Eagles. Duce Staley (former Eagles RB coach), Frank Reich (former Eagles coach) and Josh McCown (former Eagles QB) have all seen what Sanders can do, and that surely played a part in bringing him on as the team's 1-for-1 replacement for new Chicago Bears running back D'Onta Foreman. At a minimum, Sanders will operate as the main back on early downs, while Chuba Hubbard (RB62) and Raheem Blackshear split work on third downs. But I say at a minimum because those guys still have to prove themselves to the new coaching staff to earn substantial roles. Sanders has already proven his worth with these coaches before. And last year he showed everyone what he was capable of when he finished as the RB10 in half-point scoring overall/RB13 in points per game from Weeks 1-17. He ended the year averaging just south of five yards per carry and scored 13 rushing TDs after scoring zero in 2021. His carries inside the 10-yard line ranked inside the top five among all RBs.
And when Sanders saw his best-receiving usage to date - 50 receptions for 509 yards as a rookie in 2019 - it was under Staley's tenure. With Sanders' uber-efficient rushing running behind an offensive line that finished 9th in adjusted line yards in 2022, Carolina is a great landing spot for him. His rushing alone should earn him production similar to what we saw from Foreman after the team traded away Christian McCaffrey. From Week 7 onward, Foreman sat as the RB21 in total points and RB22 in points per game. He ranked fourth in the NFL in total rushing yards (852). But his path to back-end RB2 status was not consistent whatsoever. Foreman rushed for over 110 yards in half of the last ten games, while finishing with fewer than 40 rushing yards in four of his others. His inconsistency was due to a lack of pass-game work causing him to be completely phased out of games that Carolina was out-matched in. But, I don't think that will necessarily be the case for Sanders. The former Eagle has the chance to be a full-blown workhorse with an expanded receiving role based on the four-year, $25 million ($13 million guaranteed) commitment from his new team. |
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40.
DK Metcalf
WR - SEA (at ARI)
Metcalf has seen his fantasy production decline in three straight seasons after opening his first two seasons as the WR10 and WR20 in fantasy points per game. He found himself sitting at WR24 after the 2022 season. Metcalf's finish was fueled by three massive games in which he finished with at least 127 receiving yards as the WR7 or higher in weekly scoring. He was a rollercoaster wide receiver who also had six weeks as a WR55 or lower in weekly scoring. Metcalf's overall metrics in 2022 still put him in the WR2 bucket when projecting forward to 2023. He was 18th in target share (25.5%), tenth in air yard share (36.3%), and 34th in yards per route run. Metcalf was also 12th in deep target and second in red zone targets among receivers.
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41.
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB - DET (vs . MIN)
Jahmyr Gibbs spent his first two college seasons at Georgia Tech, posting a 24% dominator rating as the team's RB1 alongside future NFL running back, Jordan Mason. In both his years at Georgia Tech, Gibbs finished second in PFF receiving grade. However, he elected to not stay at GT for his junior year and instead transferred to Alabama to be the Crimson Tide's next RB1. He led Alabama with 926 rushing yards and flashed receiving ability by catching a team-leading 44 passes for 444 receiving yards. Gibbs finished third in the FBS in receiving yards, one year removed from leading all RBs in the nation in receiving yards (470). He also flashed his explosiveness by ending the year fifth in the class in PFF's breakaway run rate (53%).
At 5-foot-9 and 199 pounds, Gibbs is on the smaller size for an every-down role. But he more than makes up for it with his receiving and speed. And the Detroit Lions hardly seem concerned about his size, considering they selected him 12th overall in the NFL Draft. The draft capital alone mitigates any workload concerns for Gibbs based on his somewhat smaller frame. Detroit paid a premium, and that means he is going to get his touches (likely high value in the form of receptions) regardless of what the team paid David Montgomery during free agency. Last season ex-Lions and newly acquired Eagles running back D'Andre Swift was uber-efficient on a per-touch basis: fourth in fantasy points per touch, third in yards per carry, 23rd in points per game and 19th in yards after contact per attempt. Swift (10.3) and Jamaal Williams (16.1) combined for 26.4 touches per game. Even with a projected 50-50 split, Gibbs is looking at a 224-touch workload. With a 55% split, Gibbs is flirting with nearly 250 total touches over a 17-game season. Simply put, the former Alabama running back needs to be ranked as back-end RB1. |
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42.
Josh Allen
QB - BUF (at MIA)
Josh Allen finished QB2 in fantasy scoring behind Patrick Mahomes last season after finishing QB1 in 2020 and 2021. Allen remains capable of putting fantasy teams on his shoulders in any given week with multi-TD spike games. He's thrown for more than 4,000 yards in three straight seasons and has finished with 35 to 37 TD passes every year during that span. Allen adds immense value with his legs. He's run for 700+ yards in each of the last two years and has had at least six TD runs in each of his five NFL seasons. Allen is likely to be the first QB off the board in most 2023 fantasy drafts.
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43.
Cam Akers
RB - LAR (at SF)
Cam Akers was a total zero from the get-go, getting benched in Week 1 and he looked like he was going to be outright cut by the Rams. Eventually, Akers inherited the Rams' RB1 role and he delivered as the fantasy RB4 during the last six weeks of the season. With LA in a rebuilding year, Akers will again be a truly polarizing player. Did he do enough in the final 6 weeks as the NFL's leading rusher averaging 85 rushing yards per game to retain bell-cow-type usage?
The good news is that Sean McVay is remaining in Los Angeles, which bodes well for Akers to remain the go-to guy in the backfield. Recall, that Akers played 100% of the snaps in the Rams' season finale. And with so many needs on the Rams' current roster, they did not add any running backs in the draft until the sixth round. That means Akers will be competing for volume with Zach Evans, alongside Day 3 scrubs Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers. And although it seems impossible considering his career arc, Akers isn't even 24 years old yet. With free agency on the horizon, the Rams have all the reason in the world to ride Akers into the ground during a contract year. |
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44.
DJ Moore
WR - CHI (at GB)
The 2022 season was another sad year of D.J. Moore suffering through the "Allen Robinson" experience as one of the league's most talented receivers that's being held back by mediocre quarterback play. Moore was the WR33 in fantasy as he dealt with a target quality rating and catchable target rate outside of 90th among receivers. Moore still managed to rank 27th in PFF receiving grade and 32nd in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets per PFF). We witnessed his floor last season as Moore was 12th in target share (27.7%), 17th in target per route run rate (26.8%), and fourth in deep targets. Justin Fields will be the best passer that Moore has worked with to this point. While the target volume concerns are justified for Moore in Chicago's offense, he has already displayed the ability to earn targets at a high rate. If the Bears' passing volume surprises with the receiving upgrades this offseason, Moore will happily pay off his ADP. Moore is a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 in 2023 that could easily finish as a top-15 receiver.
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45.
Dameon Pierce
RB - HOU (at IND)
The Houston Texans looked like they struck gold with Dameon Pierce early on during the season, as the rookie running back looked like the early favorite to take home offensive rookie of the year honors with a hot start. Pierce stepped in and immediately became the team's bellcow in Week 2. From that time until Week 10, Pierce ranked 5th in the NFL in rushing yards (739) averaging north of 19 carries and 92 rushing yards per game. He was the fantasy RB12 overall and in points per game. Other Texans RBs combined for just 11 carries versus Pierce's 154 over this stretch. However, the Florida product seemed to have hit a wall in the middle of the year totaling just 16 rushing yards against Washington and Miami through Weeks 11-12. However, these two defenses would turn out to be some of the tougher matchups for all RBs, so that's likely the cause of Pierce's fall-off in production. The tackle-breaking machine more than proved that he still had juice left in the tank with two strong outings to conclude his season versus Dallas and Cleveland. However, he suffered a season-ending ankle injury that would knock him out for the rest of the season - just 61 yards away from 1,000 rushing yards on the year. Despite the missed games, he still finished 4th in missed tackles forced and 1st in missed tackles forced per attempt (28%) among RBs with at least 100 carries. Pierce should lead the Texans backfield in 2023, but an entirely new coaching staff and Pierce's 4th-round draft capital suggest that his undisputed workhorse role could change. Devin Singletary signed a one-year deal worth $3.75 million with the Texans, presumably to fill the role of Pierce's primary backup. Singletary totaled just nine more carries than James Cook from Weeks 13-Week 20 but ended the year 10th in PFF rushing grade (two spots ahead of Pierce).
Overall, Singletary probably won't unseat Pierce as the team's No. 1 rusher, but he poses a much bigger threat to Pierce's workload than JAGs like Rex Burkhead, Mike Boone, and Dare Ogunbowale. His PFF pass-blocking grade (73.2, 8th) might get him usage on passing downs as Pierce struggled in this capacity as a rookie (32.3, 52nd). Although it does work in Pierce's favor that Singletary has never flourished as an actual receiver, giving Pierce the slight edge on attaining a full three-down workload if he can shore up his pass protection in Year 2. Singletary's addition shouldn't completely change the way you view Pierce as it was highly unlikely the team would add zero running backs between now and the start of the season. He's not the worst running back they could have added, but he's hardly a reason to fully fade Pierce for fear that Singletary will carve out a massive role on offense. |
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46.
Christian Watson
WR - GB (vs . CHI)
Christian Watson was the talk of the town after blowing up the Senior Bowl and combine last year. Worries about Watson began to mount for many in camp and during the early part of the season as he dealt with nagging injuries. Once healthy, Watson proved that the cream does rise to the top. He emerged as the Packers' clear number-one wideout. Watson ranked 14th in open rate (per ESPN analytics), 12th in yards per route run, and third in fantasy points per route run. He was fourth in YAC per reception behind only Deebo Samuel, Rondale Moore, and Jaylen Waddle (minimum 50 targets, per PFF). Watson is a strong WR2 that has huge WR1 upside.
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47.
Jalen Hurts
QB - PHI (at NYG)
Hurts gave us a taste of his fantasy potential in 2021 and then cooked a seven-course meal in 2022, improving his passing numbers across the board, providing enormous rushing value and leading all quarterbacks with 25.6 fantasy points per game. Hurts was a highly efficient passer in his second full season as a starter, completing 66.5% of his throws at 8.0 yards per attempt, with a miniscule 1.3% INT rate. But it's the running game where Hurts really makes his bones. He ran for 13 touchdowns last year and has 23 TD runs over the last two seasons. Hurts has topped 750 rushing yards in each of the last two seasons, averaging 51.5 rushing yards per game over that span. He plays behind one of the best offensive lines in football and can throw to three terrific targets: A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. Hurts belongs on the top QB tier along with Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.
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48.
Calvin Ridley
WR - JAC (at TEN)
The last time we saw Calvin Ridley, he was still among the best receivers in the league. In 2021, Ridley was seventh in target share (27.4%), fourth in air yard share (40.0%), and fifth in route win rate. Ridley and Ryan just couldn't find their old chemistry, as Ryan's skills were profoundly diminished. Ridley was subjected to backup quarterback-level target quality that ranked 63rd. His catchable target rate was only 71.2% (73rd). While it's worth pondering what version of Ridley we'll see returning from hiatus, don't for a second think he was playing poorly in 2021 despite the fantasy results not being there. With Trevor Lawrence taking a huge step forward in 2022, Ridley will be a WR2 next season with WR1 upside.
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49.
Terry McLaurin
WR - WAS (vs . DAL)
Terry McLaurin's 2022 season was a tale of two halves. With Carson Wentz under center, McLaurin's role withered, as he had a 16.3% target share, a 26.4% air yard share, and 1.52 yards per route run. McLaurin's season would have been sunk if Wentz had kept ignoring him all season. Once Wentz was sidelined by injury, McLaurin exploded with Taylor Heinicke under center. With Heinicke, McLaurin had a 29.8% target share, a 44% air yard share, and 2.73 yards per route run (28% target per route run rate). McLaurin's skills haven't diminished one bit. The problem has been the quarterbacks tossing him the ball. At the moment, Washington is entertaining the Sam Howell experience under center in 2023 (it could easily be Jacoby Brissett). In Week 18, McLaurin saw a 33% target share from Howell, so if we are to take anything away from that one game sample, it's that Howell knows where his bread is buttered. McLaurin is a volume-based WR2.
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50.
Jerry Jeudy
WR - DEN (at LV)
Jerry Jeudy weathered the Russell Wilson stink better than Courtland Sutton in 2022. Sutton dealt with a hamstring strain down the stretch and a grossly ineffective Wilson when he decided to chuck it deep. Jeudy parlayed his 20.8% target share (35th) into a WR19 finish and a 16th ranking in yards per route run. Jeudy's lower aDOT (11.8, 40th) helped shield Jeudy from the atrocious Wilson deep ball. Jeudy was 11th in open rate (per ESPN analytics). Jeudy is a talented player who still has untapped potential in the NFL. With Sean Payton in town, we could have been a year early touting this offense as a breakout unit. Jeudy is a borderline WR2/3.
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51.
Keenan Allen
WR - LAC (vs . KC)
When Keenan Allen was healthy, he looked like the player we have loved for many seasons in fantasy. He was limited to ten games played. In Weeks 11-18, Allen was the WR4 in fantasy points per game, commanding a 26.5% target share (15th) and a 34.9% air yard share (19th) with 2.24 yards per route run (18th, minimum 25 targets). Overall Allen posted his highest yards per route run since 2018 (2.32), so there are reasons to be optimistic despite his advancing age (30) that he still has 1-2 more top 15 seasons left in him. Allen should be a volume hog again in 2023 in Kellen Moore's fast-paced offense.
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52.
Joe Mixon
RB - CIN (vs . CLE)
It truly was a tale of two seasons for Joe Mixon. In Weeks 1-8, Mixon struggled immensely averaging 3.3 yards per carry as the RB19 in points per game. No running back scored fewer fantasy points versus expected because he just couldn't seem to find the end zone. But as the newer pieces of the offensive line started to gel, Mixon's production took off in the form of positive touchdown regression. He finished the season (including the postseason) as PFF's second-highest-graded running back headlined by an elite 5-touchdown game versus the Panthers in Week 9. In his eight healthy games from Weeks 9 to the conference championship, he averaged 16.7 fantasy points per game (equivalent to RB5 on the season). All in all, Mixon finished 6th in touches per game (19.5) and second in carries inside the 10-yard line (28) from Weeks 1-17, but only scored five touchdowns. The career-high receiving usage (60 catches for 441 yards on 70 targets) paved the way for Mixon's RB8 finish in points per game. However, it should be noted that the team did involve Samaje Perine more down the stretch after he filled in admirably during Mixon's injury (Weeks 11-13). Perine out-snapped Mixon in two of the Bengals' three playoff games and routinely ran more routes. But Mixon still averaged nearly four catches per game. I wouldn't envision his receiving role on early downs changing even if he loses snaps to another RB on third downs. Former Michigan running back Chris Evans projects to take a larger role on third downs after Samaje Perine signed with the Denver Broncos.
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53.
Kyle Pitts
TE - ATL (at NO)
After becoming the first tight end in 50 seasons to have 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie, Kyle Pitts had a bitterly disappointing sophomore season, finishing with 28 catches for 356 yards and two touchdowns and missing the last six games of the season with a torn MCL. The 22-year-old Pitts is immensely talented and figures to be a top fantasy TE for many years to come. But can Pitts be a prolific fantasy scorer in 2023 with run-loving head coach Arthur Smith in charge of the Falcons' offense and the Atlanta QB situation unsettled? Pitts will be a high-risk, high-reward fantasy option for 2023, but at least he'll be cheaper in this year's drafts than he was in 2022.
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54.
Joe Burrow
QB - CIN (vs . CLE)
Brimming with swag and surrounded by ample pass-catching weaponry, Joe Burrow has firmly established himself as a premium fantasy quarterback. Burrow finished QB4 in fantasy scoring last season after throwing a career-high 35 TD passes. Over the last two years, Burrow has completed 69.3% of his throws, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt. He added some value with his legs in 2022, running for five touchdowns. Burrow gets to throw to the fabulous WR duo of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and the Bengals have made significant investments in their offensive line. Burrow will be a consensus top-five QB in 2023 fantasy drafts.
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55.
Tyler Lockett
WR - SEA (at ARI)
Tyler Lockett kept trucking along in his age-30 season last year, finishing with another stellar stat line. He was the WR16 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 22.8% target share (26th) and 30.5% air yard share (24th). Lockett showed little signs of slowing down, ranking 25th in PFF receiving grade and 24th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets per PFF). He was also second in open rate behind only Diontae Johnson (per ESPN analytics). Lockett should have at least one more WR2 season left in the tank, but adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba could hurt his raw target volume. Lockett is a borderline WR2/3.
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56.
Lamar Jackson
QB - BAL (vs . PIT)
Drafters might get a slight discount on Lamar Jackson this year after a second consecutive season in which injuries limited him to 12 games. In 2021, it was bone bruise in his ankle that prematurely ended Jackson's season. In 2022, it was a sprained PCL in his knee. Jackson has been a lethal running threat throughout his career, averaging 63.4 rushing yards per game over his five NFL seasons. Jackson will be playing for new, pass-friendlier offensive coordinator Todd Monken after the Ravens parted ways with Greg Roman. Even with the uncertainty and the recent injuries, Jackson is still an upper-echelon fantasy quarterback capable of a QB1 finish.
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57.
James Conner
RB - ARI (vs . SEA)
When James Conner was healthy in 2022, it was hard to argue with his elite production and role in the Arizona Cardinals offense. He was the RB4 overall in his last eight games, averaging 17 fantasy points per game (RB6, RB10 in expected points per game) while playing over 90% of his team's snaps in five contests. No other Cardinals running back was able to threaten Conner's volume, which led to him to an absurd workload. And Arizona did not invest anything into the No. 2 running back position this offseason so we could easily see Conner's high workload remain intact while he stays healthy. Keen fantasy managers need to be aware of his durability issues. He missed four games entirely and left three other games early because of injuries. Conner is entering his age-28 season. But the team has all the incentive in the world to ride him into the ground with a potential out in his contract at the end of the season.
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58.
Isiah Pacheco
RB - KC (at LAC)
Isiah Pacheco's outstanding season as a 2022 7th-round pick should not be understated. From Week 10 through Week 17 (when Pacheco cemented himself as the team's starter), the former Rutgers running back was the RB21 in points per game and ranked sixth in total rushing yards. Both he and Jerick McKinnon were top-21 scoring RBs over this stretch, but Pacheco kicked his performance into high gear as the Chiefs made their postseason run. He averaged 13 touches for 65 rushing yards to McKinnon's seven touches per game. The aggressive runner capped off his rookie campaign with an impressive Super Bowl outing (15-76-1) that helped clinch victory for Kansas City. Even as a 7th-round pick, Pacheco should be viewed as the early-down starter for KC as he heads into Year 2, with room for his role to grow should he see his pass-game usage expanded. His six-catch game versus the Bengals in the conference championship suggests a boosted receiving role is firmly in his range of outcomes.
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59.
Drake London
WR - ATL (at NO)
Drake London excelled in his rookie season, although fantasy gamers were not elated with his WR43 finish. If we look deeper than the raw counting stats, London's future is incredibly bright. If earning targets is a skill (it is), then London proved to be among the league's elite. He ranked 22nd in raw target volume last year (117) with the fifth-highest target share (29.4%) and second-highest target per route run rate (32.4%) among wide receivers. London also blazed in efficiency stats ranking 16th in open rate (per ESPN analytics), tenth in PFF receiving grade, and 14th in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets). London gave a glimpse into his 2023 upside down the stretch last season. In Weeks 13-18, he was the WR20 in fantasy, even though he failed to score a touchdown in this span. London is a target vacuuming WR2 with WR1 upside in 2023.
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60.
Dallas Goedert
TE - PHI (at NYG)
Over the last two years, Dallas Goedert has averaged 56.7 yards per game and a wildly efficient 10.6 yards per target. He finished fifth in fantasy points per game in 2022, missing five late-season games with a shoulder injury. The athletic Goedert is a playmaking tight end who's averaged 13.8 yards per catch over the last two years. His target upside may be limited, however, since the Eagles were the fourth run-heaviest team in the league last season, and since Goedert has to share targets with WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Goedert hasn't scored more than five touchdowns in any of his five NFL seasons.
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61.
Mike Williams
WR - LAC (vs . KC)
At this juncture of his career, we should finally conclude that Mike Williams cannot play a full season of games healthy. He was limited to 13 games played this past season, with some being less than full health. With Williams entering his age 29 season, those health worries aren't likely to resolve. He was still immensely productive as the WR20 in fantasy points per game when he was on the field. Williams was 42nd in target share (18.2%), 21st in air-yard share (31.1%), and 25th in receiving yards (895). He was also 20th in PFF receiving grade and yards per route run (minimum 50 targets per PFF). Williams should not be counted on as your WR2 in team builds, but as a WR3, he possesses weekly difference-maker potential when he's on the field.
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62.
DeAndre Hopkins
WR - FA (BYE)
DeAndre Hopkins missed the first six games of the season due to suspension and the final two weeks with a knee sprain, but when he was on the field, he proved he hadn't hit the age cliff yet. Hopkins was the WR9 in fantasy points per game last season, drawing a 29.4% target share (fourth-best) and 43.5% air-yard share (second-best). Hopkins can still draw volume with the best of them, but his efficiency did tick down a bit as he was 17th in yards per route run and 35th in open rate (tied with Christian Kirk, per ESPN analytics). Hopkins' 2023 prospects are muddied with his next destination up in the air, but expecting WR2 production out of him this season, regardless of the landing spot, isn't insane.
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63.
David Montgomery
RB - DET (vs . MIN)
David Montgomery signed a 3-year deal worth $18 million ($11 million guaranteed) with the Detroit Lions this offseason, setting him up to be the new Jamaal Williams on the field for the foreseeable future. In Montgomery's 15 healthy games played last season, he averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game as the RB26. But in 11 games, he played alongside a healthy Khalil Herbert, Montgomery saw an even bigger decline in production averaging just 9.2 fantasy points (RB35), 13 carries, and 48 rushing yards per game. Monty's rushing EPA of -15.3 ranked 32nd, while Herbert's 1.17 rushing EPA ranked 12th.
And with the new addition of 12th overall draft pick, Jahmyr Gibbs, it's hard to envision Montgomery as anything more than a fantasy RB2/RB3 with the highly coveted goal-line role likely his main path to appealing fantasy production. Keep in mind that last season, Jamaal Williams carried the ball a league-high 45 times inside the 10-yard line en route to an RB12 fantasy finish and a league-high 17 rushing TDs; not too far off his 16.4 expected touchdowns. A similar red-zone role will lead to more scoring for Montgomery which will supplement solid fantasy production at a relatively cheap price tag. Williams' role from 2022 - 262 carries (6th), 16.1 touches per game - and Montgomery's contract suggests the team will be featuring enough (likely as a rusher on early downs) to be fantasy viable alongside Gibbs. |
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64.
Justin Fields
QB - CHI (at GB)
Justin Fields was electric as a runner in 2022. If he can significantly boost his passing numbers in 2023, look out. Fields ran for 1,143 yards and eight touchdowns last season, averaging a league-high 7.1 yards per carry. He ran for 178 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins in Week 9, breaking the single-game rushing record for a quarterback -- then ran for 147 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions the following week. But Fields averaged 149.5 passing yards per game and topped the 200-yard mark only twice in 2022. In his defense, Fields was saddled by a mediocre offensive line and arguably the worst WR group in the league. The Bears have already traded for WR D.J. Moore and figure to bolster their offensive line in the NFL Draft, giving Fields a chance to make the same sort of quantum leap that Jalen Hurts made in 2022.
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65.
Brandon Aiyuk
WR - SF (vs . LAR)
Brandon Aiyuk set career highs across the board in 2022 in targets (113), receiving yards (1,015), and receiving touchdowns (eight) as the WR23 in fantasy. Aiyuk was 19th in PFF receiving grade, 27th in yards per route run, and 23rd in YAC per reception (minimum 50 targets per PFF). Aiyuk was also eighth in open rate, tied with Davante Adams (per ESPN analytics). Aiyuk ran hot with touchdowns (11th among wide receivers) despite ranking only 36th in deep targets and 30th in red zone targets. While it's tough to project him to eclipse last season's target mark in the 49ers' run-first offense, if Aiyuk's high-value usage creeps up in 2023, he will improve upon last year's fantasy finish. Aiyuk is a WR2/3.
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66.
Mike Evans
WR - TB (at CAR)
Did Mike Evans fall off the age cliff last year or, at the very least, begin his descent? It does appear that way on paper. Evans finished 17th in raw target volume but 37th in target share (19.7%). He was 11th in air yard share (35.4%), third in deep targets, and 22nd in red zone targets. All these volume metrics are nice, but they will all take a hit with Tom Brady gone. His efficiency metrics are the real tale of the tape, as he was 33rd in yards per route run, 35th in route win rate, and 47th in open rate (per ESPN analytics). With declining metrics and an uncertain quarterback situation in Tampa Bay, Evans is a WR3.
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67.
D'Andre Swift
RB - PHI (at NYG)
2022 was another year of ultimate teasing by D'Andre Swift. The Lions running back came out of the gates red hot, but got hurt. And when he returned, the Lions refused to give him the featured role in the backfield, opting to use Jamaal Williams as their goal-line battering ram instead.
Swift was still uber-efficient on a per-touch basis - fourth in fantasy points per touch, third in yards per carry, 23rd in points per game and 19th in yards after contact per attempt - but the lack of touchdowns and overall touches was soul-crushing. Swift seemed to never be 100% healthy at any point during the year, which likely influenced his reduced role. And Detroit's lack of willingness to get Swift involved was a sign of things to come as they would eventually trade him to the Philadelphia Eagles for a future Day 3 pick. With a full bill of health heading into 2023, Swift will again be productive on a per-touch basis in his new offense. But be warned that his injury history and draft capital spent on Swift guarantees him nothing under a new coaching staff in Philadelphia. Fantasy managers should also be aware that Swift and fellow newcomer Rashaad Penny are both solid rushers, posting identical success rates last season. Swift also won't be used as often in the passing game, after the Eagles finished dead last in RB target share last season (12.1%) and total RB targets. |
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68.
Christian Kirk
WR - JAC (at TEN)
Christian Kirk set career highs across the board in 2022 as the WR18 in fantasy points per game. He gobbled up a 23.2% target share (24th) with the 15th-best raw target volume among wide receivers. Kirk also ranked 12th in deep targets, fifth in red-zone looks, and 22nd in yards per route run. Kirk was 21st in PFF slot receiving grade with 76.7% of his target volume coming via the slot (minimum 15 slot targets). With Calvin Ridley entering the target pecking order conversation in Jacksonville, Kirk profiles as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3.
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69.
Darren Waller
TE - NYG (vs . PHI)
After putting together back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2019 and 2020, Darren Waller has missed 14 games due to injury over the last two years. In 2021, a knee injury forced Waller to miss five late-season games. In 2022, a hamstring injury wiped out nearly half of his season. Now with the Giants, Waller could see a lot of targets for a team short on talent and size at the WR position. Waller has been reasonably productive when healthy the last two seasons, but he now has to be considered at least a mild health risk, and the big tight end will turn 31 in September.
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70.
Justin Herbert
QB - LAC (vs . KC)
Justin Herbert has abundant arm talent and the mobility to add rushing value, so fantasy managers were expecting him to take another step forward last season in his third year as a starter. Instead, Herbert took a step backward, with significant declines in his yardage per game, yardage per attempt and touchdown rate. He ran for only 147 yards and didn't have a single TD run. In Herbert's defense, he gutted it out through a rib cartilage fracture sustained in an early-season Thursday-night game vs. the Chiefs, and Herbert's top two receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, both missed time with injuries. The Chargers have jettisoned oft-criticized offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, replacing him with Kellen Moore. Herbert remains one of the toolsiest quarterbacks in the league and will likely produce much-improved fantasy numbers in 2023.
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71.
Chris Godwin
WR - TB (at CAR)
Chris Godwin had a productive 2022 in the shadow of his late-season 2021 ACL/MCL tear. Godwin was the WR15 in fantasy points per game as the Buccaneers' insane passing volume elevated him. Godwin was 31st in target share (21.8%) and tenth in raw target volume (142) while only playing 15 games. The volume covered up his efficiency ugliness in 2022. He was neutered into being a low aDOT (5.6, 99th) receiver who also ranked 38th in yards per route run. Godwin was 96th in deep targets and 18th in red zone targets. He was 68th among 82 qualifying wide receivers in open rate (per ESPN analytics). Entering his age 27 season with uncertainty at quarterback (Kyle Trask and Baker Mayfield...WOOF!) and in the passing volume department, Godwin is a scary WR3.
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72.
Trevor Lawrence
QB - JAC (at TEN)
After a lost 2021 season under former Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer, the talented Trevor Lawrence began to blossom in 2022 under the tutelage of first-year Jags HC Doug Pederson. From 2021 to 2022, Lawrence improved his completion percentage from 59.6% to 66.3%, boosted his YPA from 5.2 to 7.3, and upped his TD rate from 2.0% to 4.3%. Also a willing and able runner, Lawrence had five TD runs last season. Lawrence finished QB8 in fantasy scoring in 2022, and the former No. 1 draft pick is still ascending. Invest with confidence.
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73.
Michael Pittman Jr.
WR - IND (vs . HOU)
Michael Pittman failed to build upon his breakout 2021 season last year as he finished as the WR21 in fantasy points per game (2021 WR22), but there's still reason to be optimistic about Pittman. Pittman was 17th in target share (25.6%) and nearly logged one of the quietest 100 reception seasons (99 receptions) in recent memory. He was 18th in red zone targets, first in total route wins, and third in route win rate, so the talent is still there for Pittman to finish with an even better 2023 season. With the team drafting Anthony Richardson, the biggest worry for Pittman now is passing volume. Even if he continues to draw targets at a strong rate, his target volume could hard cap his upside and lower his floor. Pittman is a WR3.
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74.
Jahan Dotson
WR - WAS (vs . DAL)
Dotson's overall rookie season numbers don't jump off the page. He was the WR38 in fantasy with a 15.9% target share (56th), a 24% air yard share, and 1.50 yards per route run (50th). All of these figures paint an inaccurate picture of his true upside. After he returned from injury, the season's final five games offered a clearer view of what a breakout sophomore season for Dotson could look like. In Weeks 13-18 of last season, Dotson ranked 20th in target share (24%), third in end zone target share (50%), 17th in weighted opportunity, and 13th in yards per route run. Sam Howell or Jacoby Brissett at the helm in 2023 doesn't inspire a ton of confidence, but Dotson is a skilled wide receiver well-versed from his college days in dealing with pitiful quarterback play. Dotson is a WR4/5 that could take a huge leap in his second season. I won't rule out him giving Terry McLaurin a run for his money for the team lead in targets this season. Investing in talented second-year wide receivers are strong bets to make.
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75.
Jordan Addison
WR - MIN (at DET)
Last year Adam Thielen earned a 17.0% target share and 107 targets. He did this while ranking outside the top 55 wide receivers in yards per route run and route win rate (per Playerprofiler.com). Why can't a talented first-round wide receiver match (or easily exceed) these volume numbers in his first season? Addison can. He absolutely can. Addison has ranked 22nd or higher in yards per route run and PFF receiving grade in each of his last two collegiate seasons (minimum 50 targets per PFF). The Vikings were third in neutral passing rate and second in red zone passing rate last season. I don't see them dropping outside the top 5-10 teams this season in either category. Addison could be a WR2 in fantasy if he can pass T.J. Hockenson in the target pecking order.
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76.
Rachaad White
RB - TB (at CAR)
Rachaad White saw his role grow during the second half of the season, forcing a timeshare with Leonard Fournette. From Weeks 10-17, White operated as the 1A in the Buccaneers' backfield averaging 11 fantasy points per game (RB26). He wasn't great as a rusher - four yards per carry, 66.4 PFF rushing grade - but no running back was particularly efficient behind Tampa's patchwork offensive line. The first-year rusher was still better than Fournette on the ground, as the veteran finished third-to-last in rushing EPA (-39.13). And there was no better display of White edging out Fournette on the field than in the first round of the NFL playoffs. Fournette carried the ball just 5 times for 11 yards while White started and rushed for 41 yards on 7 carries, adding 4-of-6 targets for 36 yards (56% snap share). White's superior season and proficiency as a receiver (50 receptions, 11th among all RBs) solidify him as the RB1 moving forward. Tampa Bay released Fournette, signed Chase Edmonds in free agency and added Sean Tucker as an undrafted free agent.
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77.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
WR - SEA (at ARI)
Since Jaxon Smith-Njigba was announced as the Seahawks' pick in the NFL Draft, worries have been circulating about Seattle's usage of three wide receiver sets and his target share with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. These are valid concerns, but before I push back against them, let's discuss Smith-Njigba as a talent. In 2021 he was first in yards per route run and first in PFF receiving grade (minimum 50 targets per PFF) while drawing a 22.7% target share alongside Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Smith-Njigba gets typecast as a low aDOT player, but he has also shown the ability to win downfield. In 2021 he was ninth in yards per route run and tied for first in PFF's deep receiving grade (minimum 15 deep targets per PFF). Smith-Njigba is an elite-level prospect. With that said, I have a hard time believing the Seahawks burnt a first-round pick on a player they don't plan to feature, so I believe they will run a ton of 11 personnel in 2023. Regarding the subject of target share, Smith-Njigba can put those concerns to rest quickly and hit the ground running as the second option in this passing attack. While I don't want to take anything away from Tyler Lockett, he hasn't been a high-end target earner. Over the last four seasons, he's never ranked higher than 36th in target per route run rate. The addition of Smith-Njigba can allow Lockett to return to stretching the field. Since 2019 he's ranked top-12 in deep targets twice. Last year he logged the second-lowest aDOT of his career and the lowest YAC per reception mark. Smith-Njigba should garner targets early and often in 2023. Draft him and enjoy.
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78.
Brian Robinson Jr.
RB - WAS (vs . DAL)
Brian Robinson Jr. took little time getting adjusted to NFL bellcow duties after missing the first four games of his NFL career after suffering gunshot wounds in August. From Week 6 onward, B-Rob averaged 9.4 fantasy points per game (RB34). But the points per game hardly depict Robinson's rookie campaign because he was getting fed with volume. He ranked fourth in carries (17.8 per game) and averaged over 70 rushing yards per game as PFF's ninth-highest-graded running back (82.1). The Commanders running back's lack of receiving usage - just 9 catches for 60 yards on a 6% target share - and lack of TDs was the reason for his underwhelming fantasy box scores. And although his receiving usage likely won't change too dramatically with Antonio Gibson back under contract in 2023, I'd fully expect him to experience positive TD regression. Robinson finishes the fantasy regular season 13th in carries, but with just two rushing TDs. His 14 carries from inside the 10-yard line were the most of any player to score fewer than three rushing TDs.
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79.
Khalil Herbert
RB - CHI (at GB)
Khalil Herbert was better than David Montgomery in nearly every single rushing metric in 2022. He averaged 5.7 yards per carry to Montgomery's flat 4.0 yards per carry average. Herbert rushed for just 70 fewer yards on 72 fewer carries. Monty's rushing EPA of -15.3 ranked 32nd while Herbert's 1.17 rushing EPA ranked 12th. Had Herbert not gotten hurt in Week 10 versus the Detroit Lions, there was a non-zero chance he would have completely usurped Montgomery as the team's lead back.
In the two games that Herbert led the backfield due to a Montgomery injury, the Bears second-year rusher averaged 117 rushing yards and 19.5 carries. Herbert also has just had as many career games (4) as Montgomery with at least 90 rushing yards. With Monty leaving in free agency, the rebuilding Bears let him walk and added D'Onta Foreman to join the backfield. Foreman's flashes of high-end early-down starting potential for two straight seasons are going to earn him opportunities in Chicago. Even though Herbert has shown out on limited opportunities, it's hard to envision anything but another usage split between Herbert and Foreman similar to the split between Herbert and Montgomery last season. Foreman and Herbert earned nearly identical rushing EPA per attempt last year (inside the top 15). Fantasy managers might be best off taking the cheaper of the two in drafts because there may not be a true No. 1 rusher in the Windy City unless there's an injury. If the Bears are as run-heavy as they were last season, there's a chance that both can return value, but keep in mind that Justin Fields' own rushing will take away volume chances from both backs. Fantasy managers also have to consider 4th-round rookie draft selection, Roschon Johnson. Johnson's efficient rushing style, bell-cow size and pass-protection props figure to complicate the Bears backfield into a potential three-headed monster. |
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80.
Marquise Brown
WR - ARI (vs . SEA)
DeAndre Hopkins is gone, which means Marquise Brown could revisit his 2022 early-season usage. In Weeks 1-6, he was the WR7 in fantasy as he saw elite alpha-level love. He had a 26% target share, a 40.5% air yard share, and 2.00 yards per route run. Brown proved up to the task of operating as Arizona's number one receiving option. He was 24th in open rate last year, immediately behind Jakobi Meyers (per ESPN analytics). Brown is a WR2/3 that could revisit WR1 production if Kyler Murray is under center for most of this season.
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81.
George Pickens
WR - PIT (at BAL)
Pickens had some standout moments in his rookie season, including highlight-reel catches and shadow realm run blocking reps. Still, overall if you were banking on him to be a major fantasy producer, you were probably disappointed. Pickens logged six weeks with top-24 fantasy finishes, but outside of those weeks, he was unstartable with also eight weeks of WR50 or lower fantasy production. With Allen Robinson on the roster, expect the Steelers to utilize three wide receiver sets heavily. In Weeks 1-8, with the team heavily deploying 11 personnel, Pickens had a 15.1% target share, a 26% air yard share, and 1.19 yards per route run. He barely eclipsed a 15% target per route run rate. Pickens is a WR4/5 that could be the fourth option in a Kenny Pickett-led passing attack.
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82.
Treylon Burks
WR - TEN (vs . JAC)
Treylon Burks is staring down a sophomore season with tons of opportunities at his disposal to put his disappointing rookie season in the past. Burks saw a 17.6% target share last season while ranking 35th in air-yard share and 32nd in yards per route run. While none of these numbers will inspire confidence in Burks entering year two, his 17th-ranked route win rate and 24th-ranked open rate (tied with Marquise Brown, per ESPN analytics) should. Burks enters the offseason with only Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Kyle Philips, and Chigoziem Okonkwo to compete for targets in 2023. Burks falls in the WR3/4 bucket, but he could easily crush that expectation.
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83.
Alvin Kamara
RB - NO (vs . ATL)
Alvin Kamara had a year to forget in 2022 with QB/TE Taysom Hill seeing an increased role as a backfield rusher in the Saints offense. Hill earned more touches inside the 10-yard line (8 vs. 12) which limited Kamara to just two rushing TDs. AK41's receiving usage also fell off a cliff toward the end of the year. From Weeks 13-18, Kamara never caught more than two passes. His target share fell from 22% to 11%. The days of him being a game-breaker as a receiver seem to be long gone as he has seen his pass-catching numbers fall off drastically compared to his first four years in the NFL when he was averaging nearly 90 receptions per year. The overall lack of TDs and receiving was heightened more so when Kamara's poor rushing efficiency failed to make up for his loss in other production. The Saints running back ended the year second-worst in the rushing EPA (-41). Before the schedule eased up over the last four games, Kamara had just two games with 65 rushing yards. He still managed to finish as the RB15 in points per game (12.8), which might need to be his new fantasy expectation when he plays in 2023. Because there are serious question marks about Kamara's availability in regards to a potential suspension on events from last year's Pro Bowl. The general ambiguity will make him very risky to draft in the early rounds.
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84.
Rashaad Penny
RB - PHI (at NYG)
Rashaad Penny inked a one-year deal with the Eagles reportedly worth $1.35 million with $600,000 guaranteed and a max value of $2.1 million. It's not much but it puts him in the conversation to be the team's early-down lead back in full Miles Sanders fashion. In his five games played before his injury in 2022, Penny averaged over six yards per carry. He ranked second among all RBs in rushing percentage that resulted in 10-plus yards (17.5%).
His only game where he failed to surpass 54 yards on the ground was against the eventual number one run defensive unit: the San Francisco 49ers. The on-field production and talent have never been in question with Penny. It's just been the availability due to health that has been the big issue. Quarterback Jalen Hurts' presence at the goal line will obviously hinder Penny's TD potential to some extent but make no mistake that Penny's explosive game means he can score beyond just the 5-yard line. Of his 14 career touchdowns, 11 have come on 10-yard-plus plays. Seven (50%) have been 30-plus plays from scrimmage. Although it should be noted that the Eagles traded for D'Andre Swift and re-signed Boston Scott. Penny's deal is worth $1.35 million with $600,000 guaranteed - less than Scott's $2 million with $1.08 guaranteed. Swift is the superior pass-catcher, but an argument can be made that Penny is as good is not better as a pure rusher. |
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85.
Javonte Williams
RB - DEN (at LV)
Javonte Williams was limited to just 4 games in his second year after tearing his ACL, LCL and PCL in Week 4 against the Raiders. The injury may end up being a blessing in disguise as Williams may have struggled mightily in the Denver Broncos atrocious offense. Even before his injury, Williams ranked as the RB35 in points per game (9.0) despite ranking as the fantasy RB12 in expected points per game. And Williams' underlying metrics were still elite, as his 116.3 PFF elusive rating ranked first among all RBs with at least 45 carries. Considering the time frame of Williams' injury, the expectation should be that he is back by the start of the year, but the severity/complexity of his knee injury is eerily similar to J.K. Dobbins from the past year. Williams could easily come out of the gates sluggish, and the moves that Broncos have made this offseason reflect that narrative. They've added Samaje Perine and Tony Jones Jr. to the backfield.
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86.
Diontae Johnson
WR - PIT (at BAL)
There's only one explanation for Diontae Johnson's 2022 season. After an offseason workout in rainy Pittsburgh, he entered his house with an umbrella still drawn and tripped over his black cat, which sent him hurdling into his full-length entryway mirror, thus shattering it into a million pieces. This unlikely yet possible turn of events is the only possible explanation for his wretchedly unlucky season. Despite ranking 13th in target share, tenth in red zone targets, and the WR20 in expected fantasy points per game, Johnson finished the season with zero touchdowns as the WR39 in fantasy points per game. Kenny Pickett's play was a factor, but Johnson simply had a terrible run-out. Regression is coming for Johnson and this offense. Johnson still ranked 11th in total route wins, so no skill dropoff is involved here. It's just a case of legendarily bad luck. Johnson is a WR3 with top-15 upside.
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87.
Pat Freiermuth
TE - PIT (at BAL)
After a promising rookie season in which he had 60 catches for 497 yards and seven touchdowns, Pat Freiermuth scored only two TDs in 2022. But Freiermuth drew 98 targets in his second season and finished with 63 catches for 732 yards. The former second-round draft pick from Penn State offers a solid fantasy floor as a key component of the Pittsburgh passing game.
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88.
Gabe Davis
WR - BUF (at MIA)
Davis didn't live up to the deafening hype last year. He finished as the WR36 in fantasy with an 18.2% target share (43rd). He remains Josh Allen's deep threat of choice, ranking 12th in deep targets and sixth in aDOT among wideouts. Davis has proven that he isn't a high-end target share earner. He was 68th in target per route run rate last year. Davis remains tied to Allen's cannon of an arm, so spike weeks will come again in 2023. At this point, you're kidding yourself if you think he will turn into a consistent WR2 type of player. Davis is a WR3/4 that can win you a week when he's locked in. I'm more inclined to get my Davis exposure than in redraft this year. The addition of Dalton Kincaid and James Cook taking another step forward could make his peaks and valleys more pronounced this season.
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89.
James Cook
RB - BUF (at MIA)
James Cook was used in a limited fashion during his rookie season, topping out at just a 56% snap share in Week 18 versus the Patriots. However, it should be noted that Cook forced a 60-40 split from Week 13 onward with veteran Devin Singletary. The first-year rusher averaged a 40% snap share over the team's final seven games, matching Singletary point-for-point (RB25 in points per game). Cook was also the superior rusher in the season's totality capping off his year by averaging 5.3 yards per carry (5th). He earned PFF's No. 1 ranking in breakaway run rate (44%). The spurts of explosiveness and receiving ability will work in Cook's favor as he enters Year 2 with the potential to emerge as Buffalo's Day 1 starter, with Damien Harris as his main competition.
The Harris signing signifies that the second-year pro is locked-in to the elite pass-catching role vacated in the backfield. In 2022, Singletary finished third among all running backs in route participation (57%). Considering Cook's 27% target rate per route run - equal or better than Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2022, 5th among all RBs with at least 30 targets - I fully expect him to take on a much larger role as a receiver in a Bills passing attack that is shrouded with question marks behind Stefon Diggs. |
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90.
Dak Prescott
QB - DAL (at WAS)
This seems like a crossroads year for Dak Prescott, who's coming off a forgettable 2022 campaign. Prescott finished as the QB2 in 2019, giving us a glimpse of what his fantasy ceiling looks like. But
he has missed significant time with injuries in two of the last three years, and his passing efficiency numbers are trending in the wrong direction. Prescott threw an NFL-high 15 interceptions in 2022. His 7.3 YPA was his lowest since 2017. After averaging 278.1 passing yards per game in 2021, Prescott averaged 238.3 passing yards per game in 2022. He ran for six touchdowns in each of his first three seasons but has only eight TD runs over the last four years. Consider Prescott a low-end QB1, stationed somewhere between the elite fantasy quarterbacks and the streamer class. |
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91.
Kadarius Toney
WR - KC (at LAC)
Kadarius Toney could be an elite fantasy option if he can ever secure a full-time role and stay injury free. Toney was an efficiency darling in his rookie season, ranking seventh in target per route run rate and 17th in yards per route run. Those beautiful metrics carried over into 2022, with Toney garnering a 28.6% target per route run rate and 2.44 yards per route run. Toney only eclipsed 40% of the snaps once last year with the Chiefs. He then got dinged up and returned to 30-32% snap shares in Weeks 16-18. Even in the playoffs, he couldn't surpass 29% of the team's snaps in any game. If his stars align, Toney is a WR4 that could evolve into a weekly WR2.
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92.
AJ Dillon
RB - GB (vs . CHI)
Drafters were expecting A.J. Dillon to carve out a formidable role in the Packers backfield in 2022, but he was a complete afterthough for the majority of the season. His highly-touted "red-zone role" resulted in one touchdown (Week 1) in the first 11 weeks in a struggling Green Bay offense. Dillon eventually got more involved in the second half of the season, especially as a red-zone threat. From Week 9 onward, Dillon out-carried teammate Aaron Jones inside the 10-yard line 14 to 5 while splitting snaps exactly 50/50. And they scored the same amount of points total from Week 11 through Week 17, with Dillion scoring six rushing TDs. If Dillon's goal-line usage carries over from the tail-end of the 2022 season, that would significantly hinder Jones' fantasy upside while stabilizing Dillon's fantasy value. The bruising running back finished fifth in PFF rushing grade last season and will hit free agency at the end of the 2023 season. He also flashed top-tier handcuff upside when Jones got banged up versus the Bears in Week 13. Dillon tied a season-high with 18 carries for 93 yards and one touchdown to go along with three catches for 26 yards.
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93.
Evan Engram
TE - JAC (at TEN)
Evan Engram had a terrific rookie season for the Giants in 2017, then spent the next four years failing to live up to expectations. He signed a one-year deal with the Jaguars in 2022 and thrived in his new environment, catching 73 passes for 766 yards and four touchdowns. Engram also had 7-93-1 in the Jaguars epic come-from-behind playoff win vs. the Chargers. Back with the Jags after being franchise-tagged, Engram will likely be drafted as a midrange or low-end TE1 this summer. That might be a slight overpay now that the Jaguars have added WR Calvin Ridley and have ample pass-catching weaponry on the roster to make target competition fierce.
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94.
Deshaun Watson
QB - CLE (at CIN)
The 2022 version of Deshaun Watson was a far cry from the early-career Watson who finished top five in QB fantasy scoring in each of his first three seasons as a starter. Amid allegations of sexual assault, Watson didn't play in 2021 and served an 11-game suspension in 2022 before making a Week 13 debut for the Browns against his old team, the Texans. Watson was predictably rusty, producing numbers befitting a fantasy backup over a small sample size. It's reasonable to assume that Watson will look at least a little more like the dynamic dual-threat QB he used to be in 2023, but it would be a leap of faith to assume that he'll be as effective as he was from 2018 to 2020.
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95.
Jamaal Williams
RB - NO (vs . ATL)
How does a running back finish as the RB12 while catching only 12 passes? Touchdowns. That's exactly how the season played out for Detroit Lions running back Jamaal Williams. He took on the role as the Lions' goal-line back, carrying the ball a league-high 41 times inside the 10-yard line for 13 rushing TDs. Williams would finish the year with a league-high 17 rushing TDs - not too far off his 16.4 expected touchdowns.
Touchdown regression pundits will shout to the heavens that Williams cannot duplicate his 2022 success and his new landing spot in New Orleans confirms this. He signed for 3 years, $12 million, $8 million guaranteed but will now compete for red-zone touches with both Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill. Kamara totaled just eight carries inside the 10-yard line last season with Hill chipping in 12. But a potential Kamara suspension would dramatically boost Williams' fantasy value as the Saints offense has never shied away from featuring the likes of Latavius Murray or Mark Ingram when AK41 has missed time in the past. |
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96.
Rashod Bateman
WR - BAL (vs . PIT)
Rashod Bateman looked like a receiver on his way to a breakout campaign before his season was derailed by a foot sprain in Week 4 and ultimately ended in Week 8 with a LisFranc injury. In Weeks 1-3, he was the WR34 in fantasy points per game with an 18.8% target share, a 30.3% air yard share, and 3.14 yards per route run. Bateman was also only a 72.7% route per dropback player in that stretch. Bateman's talent is real, but he needs his health to comply. This could be a breaking point season. The team signed Odell Beckham Jr. and drafted Zay Flowers in the first round of the NFL Draft. This will be the best collection of weapons Lamar Jackson has ever had, but that also means it's the most competition for targets Bateman has dealt with during his time in Baltimore. Bateman has the talent to still emerge as the number one receiver in this offense and compete weekly for the team lead in targets with Mark Andrews. He's a WR3/4 that could easily finish as a WR2.
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97.
Quentin Johnston
WR - LAC (vs . KC)
Ok. Deep breath. Here's the list of injuries Mike Williams has sustained since entering the NFL: herniated disk, knee strain, back spasms, hamstring strain, hip flexor strain, high ankle sprain (twice), and transverse process fracture. I bring this up because Quentin Johnston could be operating as the Chargers' WR2 sooner rather than later. That type of upside in his rookie season shouldn't be ignored in an offensive system that could challenge for the league lead in passing attempts and play volume. Even if he doesn't supplant Williams this season, Johnston offers this offense a different element as a RAC specialist. Last year Johnston ranked sixth in YAC per reception and 11th in missed tackles forced (minimum 50 targets per PFF). Kellen Moore can design looks for Justin Herbert to get Johnston the ball in space and let him do his thing.
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98.
Courtland Sutton
WR - DEN (at LV)
Courtland Sutton is coming off a disappointing season, but when we peer at deeper efficiency metrics, it's easy to see the problem wasn't him. Sutton dipped to 50th in yards per route run and 65th in fantasy points per route run, while he saw a 23.1% target share (25th). This paints the picture that the blame rests upon Sutton's shoulders until we also see that he was 16th in total route wins and 12th in open rate (per ESPN analytics). Only 72.5% (71st) of his targets were catchable, and he ranked 42nd in target quality rating. With a new head wizard in Sean Payton directing this passing attack, there are reasons to buy in on a big Sutton bounceback in 2023. Sutton was 11th in deep targets and 22nd in red zone targets last year. Sutton is an upside WR3.
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99.
David Njoku
TE - CLE (at CIN)
David Njoku's first five seasons in Cleveland were a mixed bag, but the uber-athletic tight end had a strong 2022 campaign, with 58 catches for 628 yards and four touchdowns in 14 games. Njoku hauled in 72.5% of his targets and averaged 44.9 yards per game. Although he's been in the league since 2017, Njoku will only be entering his age-27 season, so he's squarely in the prime of his career. With his massive wingspan and above-average speed, Njoku might still be able to take up his game another notch.
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100.
Jameson Williams
WR - DET (vs . MIN)
Don't lose faith in Jameson Williams. Despite his six-game suspension, Williams remains an extremely talented wide receiver entering his sophomore season with a mountain of upside. Williams was placed in bubble wrap in 2022 by the Detroit Lions, who valued being careful with their blazing-fast rookie coming off a major injury (ACL tear). Assuming Williams is good to go for 2023, he's still the same player that ranked 13th in yards per route run among all FBS wide receivers in 2021 (minimum 50 targets). Williams could be the number two option in this passing attack when he returns behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown. Williams is a WR4 that could crush his ADP in 2023.
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101.
Tua Tagovailoa
QB - MIA (vs . BUF)
Your willingness to draft Tua Tagovailoa in 2023 will likely depend on your tolerance for risk. Tua proved himself as a passer in 2022, leading all quarterbacks in passer rating (105.5), yards per attempt (8.9) and touchdown percentage (6.3%). But Tua has to be considered a concussion risk after a season in which he twice missed games due to brain injuries. He was knocked unconscious against the Bengals in Week 4 and didn't return until Week 7. He was also placed in the concussion protocol after a Week 16 game against the Packers and missed Miami's final two games. Were it not for concussion concerns. Tua would be drafted as a top-10 quarterback as a talented young passer in an explosive Dolphins offense that features two terrific WRs in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. But with the possibility that another concussion could put Tua out of action indefinitely, it seems more sensible to regard Tua as a high-end QB2.
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102.
Daniel Jones
QB - NYG (vs . PHI)
A mistake-prone turnover machine during his first three NFL seasons, Daniel Jones flourished in Year Four under first-year Giants head coach Brian Daboll, finishing QB9 in fantasy scoring. Jones ran for 708 yards and seven touchdowns in 2022. He averaged only 200.3 passing yards per game and threw 15 TD passes in 15 starts, but Jones didn't have much pass-catching talent at his disposal and could increase his passing output now that the Giants have added more weaponry. Jones figures to be a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2 in 2023 fantasy drafts.
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103.
Damien Harris
RB - BUF (at MIA)
The Buffalo Bills signed Damien Harris (RB42 ADP) to a one-year contract to fill the void left by Devin Singletary. Bills general manager Brandon Beane stated earlier this offseason that the team wanted to add another back with more "size" to compliment smaller running backs like James Cook and Nyheim Hines. Harris, at 216 pounds, fits the mold of the bigger back that Beane was after, so it's not a shock to see this deal completed.
Last season, the former Patriots running back was plagued by injuries, playing in just 11 contests - two of which he left early. And in his nine healthy games, Harris averaged just 8.8 fantasy points, 11 carries, and 49 rushing yards per game. He took a major backseat to the surging Rhamondre Stevenson, who operated as the RB1 in the backfield for the majority of the season. Now with Buffalo, Harris' best fantasy prospects are for him to land the Bills' red-zone back role. He scored just as many times as Stevenson from inside the ten-yard line last season (thrice) despite being out-carried in that area of the field 19 to six. In 2022, former Bills RB Devin Singletary totaled just four rushing TDs inside the 10-yard on 16 carries. QB Josh Allen is frequently deployed as a goal-line rusher which might limit Harris' touchdown totals in 2023. However, we have seen quarterbacks run less at the goal line as they get older, so there's still a chance that Harris flirts with double-digit scores should his arrival mean the team leans on him more as their preferred rusher near the pylon to protect their franchise quarterback in the long term. |
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104.
Brandin Cooks
WR - DAL (at WAS)
Last year Cooks saw his fantasy value crater as Pep Hamilton tried to pigeonhole him into a low aDOT role early on, which crushed his productivity. After Week 8, Hamilton returned to his senses and transitioned Cooks to his field-stretching role. Once the switch was made, his yards per route run jumped from 1.39 to 1.86. His aDOT climbed from 8.6 to 15.3 during this time. Cooks might not be a young pup anymore, but his top-25 rankings in route win rate and win rate against man coverage last year dispel any notion that he's turned to dust. With Dalton Schultz gone and Michael Gallup being JAG, Cooks should return WR3/4 value with room for more if he gels quickly with Dak Prescott. Another 1,000 season with a new team is possible for Cooks in 2023.
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105.
Kirk Cousins
QB - MIN (at DET)
Say what you will about Kirk Cousins' habit of underperforming in big games or his penchant for throwing short of the sticks in critical third- and fourth-down situations. That stuff might leave Vikings fans dismayed, but it's less concerning in the fantasy realm, where Cousins' yeat-to-year consistency makes him a stable and useful fantasy asset. Cousins has finished as a top-11 quarterback in each of the last three years. He finished QB7 in 2022, ranking fourth in passing yards (4,547) and tying for fifth in TD passes (29). If you miss out on the top quarterbacks, Cousins is a perfectly reasonable fallback option in the middle rounds of your draft.
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106.
Tyler Allgeier
RB - ATL (at NO)
Tyler Allgeier enjoyed an extremely successful rookie season, finishing the year as PFF's No.1-graded rookie running back (86.7) ahead of stars like Kenneth Walker and Breece Hall. That accomplishment puts Allgeier into an elite company with RBs such as Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara and Rhamondre Stevenson - all who were top-8 fantasy RBs in their second seasons after taking home the crown as PFF's highest-graded rookie RB in their first years. Allgeier's strong finish was the driving force behind his final standing - 6th among all RBs in rushing EPA - as the team unleashed him from Week 13 onward. He was the RB11 in half-point scoring points per game averaging 17.8 carries and 96 rushing yards per game. Alas, Allgeier's accomplishments were all for naught as his fantasy value was immediately vaporized after the team decided to draft Bijan Robinson 8th overall. It puts Allgeier into straight backup duties, where he likely will have no fantasy value without a Robinson injury. At least fantasy managers and zero-RB zealots can be assured that Allgeier will produce if/when called upon based on his rookie-year accolades.
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107.
Alexander Mattison
RB - MIN (at DET)
Alexander Mattison smashed in most games that Dalvin Cook missed from 2020-2021. The Vikings RB2 posted five games with at least 23 touches over that stretch, including two games with 32 touches when Cook was sidelined. He averaged 23.7 PPR points and 90 rushing yards per game in those contests. The problem in 2022, was that Mattison never got the opportunity to carve out a bell cow role because Cook stayed healthy for the entire season. Aside from the occasional goal-line touch, Mattison operated strictly as RB2 for Minnesota. And that hurt Mattison's chances of boosting his stock in free agency as he settled in on returning to his old team on a 2-year, $7MM contract with $6.35MM guaranteed.
The 25-year-old running back was at least efficient in 2022 when he carried the ball, finishing with a career-high 84.2 PFF rushing grade which ranked 15th among 61 running backs with at least 70 carries in 2022. And although, he's never been a featured back for an entire season -- the glimpses of him in a full-time role as a Viking shed some light on his potential upside should he ascend to RB1 status. Dalvin Cook has been a hot trade candidate, suggesting his days at the Vikings RB1 could be numbered. The team can save close to $8 million if they release him. |
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108.
Geno Smith
QB - SEA (at ARI)
In his first two seasons in the league, Geno Smith threw 25 TD passes and 34 interceptions for the Jets, earning a reputation for being a second-round draft bust. Smith waited seven years to get another crack at being a full-time starter and thrived in that role with the Seahawks, throwing for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns, leading the NFL in completion percentage (69.8%) and winning the Comeback Player of the Year award. Smith finished QB5 in fantasy scoring in 2022, and though it wouldn't be wise to bet on a repeat, a low-end QB1 or high-end QB2 finish is a reasonable expectation.
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109.
Elijah Mitchell
RB - SF (vs . LAR)
Elijah Mitchell got hurt in Week 1 and the team traded for Christian McCaffrey by the time he was fully healthy enough to return to the field (Week 10). In his first game back, he rushed 18 times for 89 yards. He saw middling usage over the next two weeks - eight carries for 47 rushing yards per game - before getting hurt again. Mitchell's gone two straight seasons without being able to stay healthy - definitely a downside factor to being undersized running back in the Kyle Shanahan run scheme. But his efficient play at least solidified him as the primary handcuff to McCaffrey in 2023. He might see occasional spike weeks of production even while CMC is healthy (as he did at times in 2022) but I'd hardly project him for any consistent role as the No. 2 running back on the depth chart. Although it should be noted that No. 3 running back Jordan Mason graded out as PFF's second-highest graded rusher in 2022, and could potentially push Mitchell for the backup job. Mason's larger stature will make it easier for him to hold up over an 18-week season.
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110.
Aaron Rodgers
QB - NYJ (at NE)
It will be strange to see Aaron Rodgers wearing a different shade of green now that he's moved from the Packers to the Jets. The 39-year-old Rodgers still makes some dazzling throws, but he experienced some statistical slippage in 2022. He threw only 26 TD passes, and his 12 interceptions were the most he'd thrown in a season since 2008. He averaged 6.8 yards per pass attempt, the second-lowest mark of his 15 years as a starter. Rodgers' days as a QB1 may be over. He finished QB13 in fantasy scoring last season, but he was QB21 in fantasy points per game among QBs who played at least 10 games. Don't make the mistake of buying Rodgers based solely on the name brand. It's possible the change of venue will rekindle interest in Favre, but the Jets' defense is one of the best in the league, so Rodgers isn't going to be involved in a lot of shootouts and may end up being a glorified game manager in 2023.
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111.
Jakobi Meyers
WR - LV (vs . DEN)
Josh McDaniels took another step today in making the Raiders "Patriots west" as they inked Jakobi Meyers to a three-year deal. This is a welcome addition to a Raiders' wide receiver room that was looking thin outside of Davante Adams and Hunter Renfrow (Mack Hollins is a FA). The dominoes might not be done falling, though, as this could also signal a Renfrow departure. Renfrow can be cut, and the Raiders can save 1.5 million against the cap. The likeliest outcome is that Renfrow remains in Vegas this year and is cut bait next year when the team can save 8.2 million against the cap next year by kicking him to the curb. The Raiders are surrounding their new starting quarterback with underneath weapons. Meyers will rotate slot work with Renfrow. Meyers played 69.5% from the slot last year (Renfrow 86.0%), drawing a 22.0% target share (29th), a 25.8% target per route run rate (22nd), and a 27.4% air yard share as the Patriots' number one option. He was 29th in PFF receiving grade and 23rd in yards per route run (minimum 50 targets per PFF). Meyers has been the WR29 and WR35 in fantasy points per game over the last two seasons. Meyers' signing could signal the Raiders' plan to deploy more 11 personnel this season after ranking 18th in the use of three-plus wide receiver sets last year. Meyers will compete with Hunter Renfrow for second in line at the target water fountain. Meyers is a low-ceiling WR3/4 that gets a small boost in PPR formats.
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112.
Chigoziem Okonkwo
TE - TEN (vs . JAC)
A fourth-round draft pick from Maryland, Chigoziem "Chig" Okonkwo was a pleasant surprise for the Titans in his rookie season, catching 32 passes for 450 yards and three touchdowns. He averaged 14.1 yards per catch and 9.8 yards per target, flashing impressive speed and tackle-breaking ability after the catch. Okonkwo is an exciting addition to the TE pool, although the Titans' grim QB situation might force us to temper our enthusiasm for this up-and-comer.
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113.
Cole Kmet
TE - CHI (at GB)
One of the few credible pass catchers for the Chicago Bears last season, Cole Kmet led the team in targets (69), catches (50), receiving yards (544) and TD catches (7). Kmet got off to a s slow start in 2022, catching five passes for 56 yards over his first four games, but still finished TE8 in PPR fantasy scoring. If Bears QB Justin Fields shows improvement as a passer in 2023, Kmet could take another step up in his age-24 season, though the Bears' addition of WR D.J. Moore casts a shadow over Kmet's target outlook.
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114.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR - NE (vs . NYJ)
Smith-Schuster had a solid season last year in one of the best offenses in the NFL, but it wasn't amazing, no matter how you slice it. The great Juju Smith-Schuster revival in Kansas City didn't come to fruition as many hoped. He was the WR35 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 17.4% target share (46th) and 16.9% air yard share (70th). Smith-Schuster's ability to beat zone coverage is his calling card these days, so he should help New England's passing offense in this aspect. He should be the "new Jakobi Meyers" as a starter in two wide sets that flexes to the slot when they utilize 11 personnel. Smith-Schuster is an uninspiring WR4/5. Outside of Rhamondre Stevenson, the Patriots' roster is a steaming pile of stink on offense.
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115.
Jared Goff
QB - DET (vs . MIN)
After disappointing seasons with the Rams in 2019 and 2020, then a lackluster first season with the Lions in 2021, Jared Goff turned in a solid year for Detroit in 2022, throwing for 4,438 yards and 29 touchdowns, good for a QB10 finish in fantasy scoring. Goff thrived under first-year Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who'll announced that he'll be back as Detroit's OC after getting some head-coach buzz at the end of the regular season. Goff will also have some exciting pass catchers to work with in WRs Amon-Ra St. Brown and rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs, along with WR Jameson Williams after he serves a six-game gambling suspension.
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116.
Antonio Gibson
RB - WAS (vs . DAL)
Antonio Gibson's production fell off substantially in 2022 as he split work in the Commanders' backfield with rookie Brian Robinson Jr. In Gibson's last nine healthy games played - he missed the end of the year with a foot injury that required surgery - he and Robinson operated as fantasy RB3s as the RB34 and RB30 respectively in points per game. AG was still the much more involved receiver with an impressive 14% target share - three catches, four targets and 22 receiving yards per game - but he was out-carried 9.7 rushing attempts per game to 16.7 by Robinson. B-Rob's status as the starter on early downs entering the season will surely make Gibson - a free agent at the end of 2023 - an enticing late-round running back option based on his pass-catching prowess and RB1 fantasy production his first two years in the league. Keep in mind, that J.D. McKissic is coming off a neck injury with an out in his contract, slating Gibson to reprise the full-blown receiving role for Washington. Gibson's 80.5 PFF receiving grade ranked third among all RBs in 2022.
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117.
Russell Wilson
QB - DEN (at LV)
Plagued by subpar QB play for years, the Broncos viewed Russell Wilson as a potential savior and gave up a bevy of draft capital to acquire him. Wilson's first year in Denver was bitterly disappointing, as he turned in the worst season of his 11-year career, with career lows in completion percentage (60.5%), passer rating (84.4) and touchdown passes (16), and a career high in sacks (55). Once a dangerous runner, Wilson doesn't run as much these days, and he doesn't escape pressure as easily. It's possible that this accomplished passer has a bounce-back season in 2023 under the tutelage of Sean Payton, but we can't assume that the 34-year-old Wilson will return to something close to vintage form. Approach with caution.
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118.
Dalton Schultz
TE - HOU (at IND)
Dalton Schultz signed a one-year deal with Houston, where he should have ample target opportunity but will be paired with rookie QB C.J. Stroud. Schultz was TE3 in fantasy scoring in 2021, catching 78 passes for 808 yards and eight touchdowns. But his production tapered off in 2022. He finished with 57-577-5 and dealt with an early-season knee injury that cost him a pair of games. Schultz isn't particularly athletic, and he's averaged just 6.5 yards per target last season, suggesting that his 2021 numbers aren't likely to be repeated.
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119.
D'Onta Foreman
RB - CHI (at GB)
D'Onta Foreman inked a one-year deal worth $3 million with the Chicago Bears to replace David Montgomery in the Bears backfield alongside Khalil Herbert, Travis Homer and 2023 4th-round draft pick Roschon Johnson. Per Aaron Wilson, Foreman also had interest from the Bills, Panthers, and Giants but chose to go with the Bears.
The interest doesn't come as a surprise after Foreman's breakout play in 2022. From Week 7 on, Foreman was the RB21 in fantasy scoring and RB22 in fantasy points per game. He ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing yards (852) over that span. But his path to back-end RB2 status was not consistent whatsoever. Foreman rushed for more than 110 yards in half of his last 10 games while finishing with fewer than 40 rushing yards in four of the others. His weekly half-point PPR fantasy finishes over those last 10 games were RB13, RB5, RB42, RB9, RB48, RB27, RB27, RB70, RB3, and RB53. Foreman was also a zero in the passing game, with just five receptions as the team's starter. Even so, Foreman's flashes of high-end early-down starting potential for two straight seasons are going to earn him opportunities in Chicago. Even though Khalil Herbert has shown out on limited opportunities, it's hard to envision anything but another RB usage split between a trio of capable RBs similar to the split between Herbert and Montgomery last season. |
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120.
Darnell Mooney
WR - CHI (at GB)
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121.
Jeff Wilson Jr.
RB - MIA (vs . BUF)
Jeff Wilson joined the Miami squad in Week 9 and immediately took on a sizable role. Wilson averaged 10 carries for 49 yards and nearly 0.4 TDs per game from Weeks 9 through 18. Raheem Mostert averaged an eerily similar workload with ten carries for 55 yards and 0.25 TDs per game. The two both missed one game entirely over this stretch, but posted an almost identical fantasy point-per-game output at ten points per game (RB32/33) with Wilson getting the slight lean in terms of expected points based on usage. Wilson out-targeted Mostert 23 to 20. However, Mostert was the superior back on a per-touch basis. The journeyman running back was superior in yards after contact per attempt (4.01 versus 2.33) and caught 18 of his 20 targets. Wilson only converted 12 of his 23 targets into receptions.
The team opted to bring back Mostert on a two-year deal ($5.6MM, $2.2MM guaranteed) and also re-sign Wilson to a 2-year deal worth up to $8.2 million ($2.65MM guaranteed). Considering the contracts and difference in age, I much prefer Wilson as my preferred Dolphins veteran running back to target with a late-round flier. |
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122.
Allen Lazard
WR - NYJ (at NE)
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123.
Greg Dulcich
TE - DEN (at LV)
Greg Dulcich missed the first five games of his rookie season with a hamstring injury, but the third-round draft was productive upon his return, scoring a touchdown in his NFL debut and finishing the season with 33-411-2 in 10 games. Dulcich averaged 5.5 targets per game and drew eight or more targets in four of his 10 games. He's an intriguing growth stock for 2023.
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124.
Michael Thomas
WR - NO (vs . ATL)
The limited three-game sample we got with Thomas returning to the field last year was promising. Unfortunately, his season was cut short by another injury, but at least he resembled shades of his former self. Thomas had a 19.6% target share and a 33.3% endzone target share. Thomas wasn't a full-time player, though, as he saw only a 77.3% route run rate which could also speak to his health. If he wasn't fully healthy at any time last year, it would make sense for the team to limit his snaps some trying to conserve him. Thomas managed a 22% target per route run rate and 1.73 yards per route run. Those aren't mind-blowing numbers, but they are solid. With a strong red zone role, he could still produce a WR3 season with those peripherals. Derek Carr should offer an upgrade in quarterback play and overall efficiency of the offense in Big Easy this year. Thomas could turn into a high-floor option, but crafting an upside or ceiling scenario for him in 2023 is difficult.
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125.
Samaje Perine
RB - DEN (at LV)
Denver signed ex-Bengals running back Samaje Perine - 2 years, $7.5 million, $3 million guaranteed - after releasing Chase Edmonds (Buccaneers) and moving on from Mike Boone (Texans).
With Javonte Williams potentially delayed in return from his knee injury, I'd suspect that Perine (RB 46 ADP) picks up the slack to open the year if he stays in the Mile High City. The Broncos have zero other RBs of note currently under contract. Therefore, Perine has the chance to provide immediate fantasy value to start the year after carving out a role in the Bengals' offense alongside Joe Mixon last season. He served as the primary third-down back for the entire season. And when Perine got the starting nod from Weeks 11-13, the 27-year-old went OFF averaging 23.6 fantasy points per game. Perine is a legitimate threat to Williams' workload as he could easily earn the passing-down work after finishing last season 6th in PFF pass-blocking and 14th in RB targets. |
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126.
Elijah Moore
WR - CLE (at CIN)
After a promising start to his career in his rookie season, Elijah Moore had a rocky and underwhelming 2022. In the nine games, Moore played at least 70% of the snaps; he only saw a 13.2% target share, zero end zone targets, and a 14% target per route run rate. In that sample, he only mustered 1.00 yards per route run. Woof! Those are atrocious numbers for a ballyhooed second-year receiver touted as the next rocket ship to the moon type player. His quarterback play was abysmal, but some blame for his production woes also lies at his feet. The big question is will he be a full-time player in 2023? Cleveland ranked 22nd in 11 personnel usage in 2022, so worries are warranted. Cleveland will likely roll with Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones when they go two wide, so the Browns' bump in 11 usage has to happen for Moore to actualize a ceiling. He's a risky dice roll in the later rounds of drafts that could pay off, but a lot has to move in his favor for him to resume his rookie season career trajectory.
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127.
Zay Flowers
WR - BAL (vs . PIT)
Flowers should immediately be starting in three wide receiver sets in Baltimore opposite Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr. in the Ravens' new-look passing attack under Todd Monken. With Greg Roman gone, Baltimore should usher in a new era of football with Lamar Jackson's arm doing the talking. The drastic changes incoming for the Ravens could open some eyes. The first could be the offensive pace and play volume, which means more passing attempts and targets for these receiving options. In three of Monken's last four seasons as an offensive mastermind, he's ranked inside the top 12 (eighth, 11th, fourth) in neutral script pace. Over that span, he was also top-five in passing attempts twice. If Beckham doesn't look like his old self and Bateman doesn't fully bounce back from last season's foot injury woes, Flowers could be the number two target in this aerial attack. Flowers can play inside and the perimeter as a receiver that can win at every level of the field. Flowers is a WR4 that can handily outplay his ADP if things break his way.
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128.
Zach Charbonnet
RB - SEA (at ARI)
Zach Charbonnet started his college career at Michigan in 2019, where he started ahead of the future NFL draft selection, Hassan Haskins. But in 2020, Charbonnet's numbers regressed in a six-game season for Michigan due to COVID-19. He split time with Haskins again, while also losing out to work to another NFL-drafted Chris Evans and up-and-coming running back star, Blake Corum. Charbonnet was part of a major running back by the committee as a Wolverine so he transferred to UCLA in 2021 and immediately saw his production skyrocket. He would post a 25% dominator rating as a junior, finishing third among all RBs in PFF rushing grade. Charbonnet's 2022 senior production was also elite, as he finished 4th in PFF rushing grade among all RBs topping his grade from the year before. But more importantly, for fantasy purposes, the 6-foot, 214-pound running back improved on his receiving game, catching 37 balls for 320 yards on 44 targets. He posted the 5th-highest PFF receiving grade and tied for first in receptions per game (3.7) among his draft class. The former UCLA running back also finished with the highest positive run rate (57%) and lowest bust rate (4%) among drafted running backs.
The Seattle Seahawks selected Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft (52nd overall) pairing him with last year's second-round pick, Kenneth Walker III. Charbonnet can't deliver the home run rushes like Walker, but he can be trusted to hit doubles as a rusher and receiver consistently. Charbonnet's 3-down skill set combined with his draft capital suggests he will be used by the Seahawks plenty as a rookie, and he could end up being the better fantasy asset compared to Walker. Keep in mind that head coach Pete Carroll is never afraid to shake things up when it comes to his backfield. The team drafted Rashaad Penny in the 1st round of the 2018 NFL Draft. But former 7th-round draft pick Chris Carson was the team's leading rusher in 2018, 2019 and 2020. One of Charbonnet's closest comparisons based on his size and weight is Carson. |
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129.
Raheem Mostert
RB - MIA (vs . BUF)
Raheem Mostert signed with the Dolphins in 2022, reuniting with former 49ers coach Mike McDaniel in South Beach. The soon-to-be 31-year-old was projected to be the back up for big free agent acquisition, Chase Edmonds. However, Edmonds fell out of favor extremely quickly and Mostert took over the starting job in Week 2. From that point until Week 8, Mostert averaged nearly ten half-points (RB21), 13.7 rushing attempts, and 62 rushing yards per game. The team quickly moved on from Edmonds before the trade deadline, replacing his spot on the roster with another ex-49ers running back, Jeff Wilson Jr.
Wilson joined the squad in Week 9 and immediately took on a sizable role. Wilson averaged 10 carries for 49 yards and nearly 0.4 TDs per game from Weeks 9 through 18. Mostert averaged an eerily similar workload with ten carries for 55 yards and 0.25 TDs per game. The two both missed one game entirely over this stretch, but posted an almost identical fantasy point-per-game output at ten points per game (RB32/33) with Wilson getting the slight lean in terms of expected points based on usage. Wilson out-targeted Mostert 23 to 20. However, Mostert was the superior back on a per-touch basis. The journeyman running back was superior in yards after contact per attempt (4.01 versus 2.33) and caught 18 of his 20 targets. Wilson only converted 12 of his 23 targets into receptions. The team opted to bring back Mostert on a two-year deal ($5.6MM, $2.2MM guaranteed) and also re-sign Wilson to a 2-year deal worth up to $8.2 million ($2.65MM guaranteed). Miami also drafted speed demon Devon Achane in the 3rd round. His speed element overlaps most with Mostert (a fellow former track star) suggesting Achane's playing time will likely come at the expense of Mostert and not Wilson. |
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130.
Devin Singletary
RB - HOU (at IND)
Devin Singletary signed a one-year deal worth $3.75 million with the Houston Texans, presumably to fill the role of Dameon Pierce's primary backup.
Singletary operated as the 1A in the Buffalo Bills backfield for the majority of the 2022 season finishing the year as RB23 overall and RB27 in points per game. However, unlike the last two seasons that ended with strong finishes for the undersized rusher, Singletary was in a full-blown committee with rookie James Cook to close out the year. The first-year rusher averaged a 40% snap share over the team's final seven games, matching Singletary point-for-point (RB25 in points per game, 52% snap share). Cook was also the superior rusher in the season's totality, capping off his year by averaging 5.3 yards per carry (5th). Singletary totaled just nine more carries than Cook from Weeks 13-Week 20 but ended the year 10th in PFF rushing grade (two spots ahead of Pierce). Overall, Singletary probably won't unseat Pierce as the team's No. 1 rusher, but he poses a much bigger threat to Pierce's workload than JAGs like Rex Burkhead, Mike Boone, and Dare Ogunbowale. His PFF pass-blocking grade (73.2, 8th) might get him usage on passing downs as Pierce struggled in this capacity as a rookie (32.3, 52nd). Although it does work in Pierce's favor that Singletary has never flourished as an actual receiver, giving Pierce the slight edge on attaining a full three-down workload if he can shore up his pass protection in Year 2. |
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131.
Nico Collins
WR - HOU (at IND)
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132.
Derek Carr
QB - NO (vs . ATL)
The nine-year veteran is now on the Saints and will be suiting up for a team other than the Silver and Black for the first time in his career. There were some concerning signs of slippage for Carr in 2022. His interception rate (2.8%) was the highest of his career, and his completion percentage (60.8%) was the lowest since his rookie year. He averaged 7.0 yards per attempt, a five-year low. Carr doesn't add rushing value, so his fantasy value will depend on his ability to rebound from a down year as a passer.
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133.
DJ Chark Jr.
WR - CAR (vs . TB)
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134.
Ezekiel Elliott
RB - FA (BYE)
I was vehemently against drafting Ezekiel Elliott across all formats in 2022. I was convinced that his best days were behind him and that Tony Pollard was the clear-cut better running back in the Dallas backfield. And I felt like the stance was mostly correct. Zeke finished as RB19 versus Pollard's RB7 status. Elliott posted career lows in yards per carry (3.7), receptions and targets. But he was an absolute TD monster, finishing second in expected touchdowns with 12 real rushing scores. Only Joe Mixon and Jamaal Williams totaled more carries inside the 10-yard line than Elliott. And ultimately the scoring was what made Zeke a usable fantasy asset especially after he returned from injury. He scored eight touchdowns from Weeks 11-17. For him to sustain any fantasy value in 2023 and beyond, Elliott will need to carve out a role as a team's primary red-zone back.
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135.
Dawson Knox
TE - BUF (at MIA)
After scoring nine touchdowns in 2021, Dawson Knox had only two touchdowns in the Bills' first 12 games of 2022. But Knox got hot down the stretch, scoring a touchdown in each of Buffalo's last four regular-season games. The 26-year-old Knox took a value hit with the Bills' selection of rookie TE Dalton Kincaid in the NFL Draft. Knox has had more than 500 receiving yards in each of the last two seasons, but his chances of a third straight 500-yard season will be remote if he splits snaps with Kincaid and is mostly used as an in-line blocker.
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136.
Matthew Stafford
QB - LAR (at SF)
After leading the Rams to a championship two seasons ago, Matthew Stafford struggled through the first nine games of 2022 before a spinal cord contusion ended his season. In 2021, Stafford averaged 287.4 passing yards per game and threw for 41 touchdowns. Last year, he averaged 231.9 passing yards and threw for 10 touchdowns. Stafford has become increasingly interception-prone in his twilight years, with 25 INTs in his last 26 regular-season games. The 35-year-old Stafford might have fuel left in the tank, but the red flags in his statistical profile make him a low-end QB2 for 2023.
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137.
Gerald Everett
TE - LAC (vs . KC)
Gerald Everett posted career highs in receptions and receiving yardage in 2022, finishing with 58-555-4. Everett hasn't finished as a top-12 fantasy TE in any of his six NFL seasons, but he's established himself as a playable TE2. Everett benefits from playing with Justin Herbert, one of the better young quarterbacks in the league.
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138.
San Francisco 49ers
DST - SF (vs . LAR)
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139.
Tyler Boyd
WR - CIN (vs . CLE)
After back-to-back seasons as a WR3 in fantasy, Boyd dipped to WR45 in fantasy points per game last year. Boyd's target share dwindled to 13.5% (71st) as he finished outside the top 60 wide receivers in yards per route run and route win rate. Boyd isn't a sexy name to plug in your starting lineup, but he remains tied to Joe Burrow, and when the Bengals get a soft matchup against a nickel corner, expect Burrow to feed him. Despite the down season, Boyd still had two weeks with WR1 fantasy finishes and eight games with WR36 or higher fantasy output. Boyd is a WR5/6 worth a bench spot for his weekly flex week upside.
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140.
Donovan Peoples-Jones
WR - CLE (at CIN)
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141.
Jerick McKinnon
RB - KC (at LAC)
From Weeks 10-17, both Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon were top-21 half-point scorers. Jerick McKinnon was the RB7 in points per game, third in RB receptions at 35 with seven receiving TDs. The Chiefs scatback made the most of his opportunities as a receiver out of the backfield especially with Mecole Hardman sidelined. Because Hardman's injury correlated with a massive spike in usage for McKinnnon. In eight games with Hardman in the lineup, McKinnon was averaging close to just three targets per game. That number jumped to five in the nine games with Hardman out, as did McKinnon's receptions totals (2-to-4). His yardage also spiked from just under 20 yards to nearly 40 receiving yards per game. It's clear at this point in McKinnon's career that he cannot be deployed as anything more than a breather/pass-catching back in the rotation with another. He is already 30 years old and probably has the most fantasy value if he remains a Chief. His re-signing in KC is ideal for anyone invested in Pacheco, as McKinnon's return makes it less likely that KC invests significantly into another veteran running back option.
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142.
Zay Jones
WR - JAC (at TEN)
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143.
Anthony Richardson
QB - IND (vs . HOU)
Anthony Richardson might have the highest ceiling of the three quarterbacks taken in the first round of this year's NFL Draft. The 6-4, 235-pound Richardson has ideal size, a rocket for his arm and eye-opening running ability -- all of which was on full display at this year's NFL Scouting Combine, where Richardson tested like Superman. But Richardson was a starter for only one of his three seasons at the University of Florida, and after completing only 53.8% of his passes in 2022, there are questions about his accuracy. Richardson landed in a good spot with the Colts, where he'll work under new head coach Shane Steichen, who helped develop Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia and Justin Herbert in Los Angeles. Richardson can tide over his fantasy managers with rushing production while his passing skills are developing.
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144.
Juwan Johnson
TE - NO (vs . ATL)
Juwan Johnson finished TE11 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring last season after catching 42 passes for 508 yards and seven touchdowns. It was an impressive performance considering that the Saints slogged through 2022 with Andy Dalton as their quarterback for most of the year. The Saints didn't select any of the top tight ends from a loaded TE draft class, and they traded TE Adam Trautman to the Broncos, although they did sign TE Foster Moreau, who is recovering from Hodgkin's Lymphoma and reportedly plans to play in 2023. A former undrafted free agent, Johnson has been a diamond in the rough for the Saints and could provide more sneaky fantasy value in 2023.
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145.
Odell Beckham Jr.
WR - BAL (vs . PIT)
The last time we saw Beckham Jr., he evoked thoughts of yesteryear when Beckham Jr. took the league by storm. While Beckham Jr. was on his way to possibly a stout Super Bowl before injury struck again, we're likely never seeing prime Beckham Jr. again. During his final seven regular season games with the Rams, Beckham Jr. saw a 15.1% target share, 20% target per route run rate, and produced 1.25 yards per route run. His five receiving touchdowns in this span help gloss over the fact that he was a mediocre receiver per efficiency numbers in that stretch. Beckham can continue to be a red zone weapon assuming full health in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson, but the days of valuing him as anything more than a WR4/5 are over. I'll happily draft Rashod Bateman and Zay Flowers over Beckham, and they will go behind Beckham in many draft rooms. Beckham will need outlier touchdown production to surpass my expectations for him in 2023.
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146.
Kenneth Gainwell
RB - PHI (at NYG)
Kenneth Gainwell was seldom used throughout the 2022 season as his passing-catching skill was not needed with the Philadelphia Eagles dominating their opponents en route to a Super Bowl 57 cameo. But his usage down the stretch should be noted as his role increased drastically. He out-targeted Miles Sanders 18-5 from Week 15 onward. And in Sanders' last five games, the early-down starter played fewer than 40% of the snaps after never playing fewer than 50% of the snaps from Weeks 1-16. Gainwell and Sanders split touches nearly 50/50 in the team's last four games, with Kenny G seeing the preferred usage on third/passing downs. With Sanders not returning to the team, Gainwell would be a favorite to see an expanded role on the ground in addition to his confirmed receiving role on offense. It's a major "if" newcomers Rashaad Penny and D'Andre Swift can actually stay healthy for a full season. And "if" they cannot (a very probable outcome) Gainwell will benefit as will Boston Scott. Gainwell is dirt cheap as the RB56 in best ball drafts.
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147.
Adam Thielen
WR - CAR (vs . TB)
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148.
Buffalo Bills
DST - BUF (at MIA)
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149.
Tyler Higbee
TE - LAR (at SF)
Tyler Higbee was busy in 2022 but not wildly productive. He finished fourth among tight ends in targets (108) and fifth in receptions (72), but with 620 receiving yards and three touchdowns, he only finished TE9 in fantasy scoring. His first touchdown of the year didn't come until Week 15. Higbee has become a decent fantasy option at TE, though he has never lived up to the promise of his spectacular late-season run in 2019, when he piled up 43-522-2 over the last five games of the year.
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150.
Dallas Cowboys
DST - DAL (at WAS)
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151.
Mike Gesicki
TE - NE (vs . NYJ)
Mike Gesicki is one of the most athletic tight ends in the league, but he was a complete nonfactor in fantasy last season. After a 73-catch, 780-yard season in 2021, Gesicki was franchised-tagged by the Dolphins last year, only to become an afterthought in head coach Mike McDaniel's offense. Gesicki averaged just 3.1 targets per game in 2022 and finished with 32 catches for 362 yards and five touchdowns. Gesicki has since signed with the Patriots, where he'll be reunited with his college coach at Penn State, Bill O'Brien, who's now the Patriots' offensive coordinator. Gesicki could become a more appealing fantasy option in 2023 if O'Brien is committed to better utilizing Gesicki's impressive skill set.
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152.
Jordan Love
QB - GB (vs . CHI)
With Aaron Rodgers now with the Jets, Love is expected to become the Packers' starter in 2023 after a three-year apprenticeship. There's precious little to go on here, as Love has made one career start (which didn't go very well) and has attempted just 83 passes since entering the league in 2020. Love has a live arm and above-average mobility, so he has the potential to surprise, but given the lack of data to go on with Love, there's bust potential here, too.
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153.
Rondale Moore
WR - ARI (vs . SEA)
Moore's abbreviated sophomore season was impressive. In his seven full games, he garnered a 22.7% target share producing 1.62 yards per route run. He handled a 22% target per route run rate in that stretch. In his full games played, he averaged 12.6 (PPR) fantasy points per game. That would have been good for WR32 (PPR) in fantasy scoring over the entire season. There are still dominoes to fall in the Cardinals' passing attack. Will DeAndre Hopkins get traded (he could already be by the time you read this)? Will Kyler Murray play more than half this season (if that)? Moore is a WR4/5 that could easily walk into WR3 production.
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154.
Kyler Murray
QB - ARI (vs . SEA)
Kyler Murray will pose an interesting dilemma for fantasy drafters in 2023. A dangerous dual-threat QB who's averaged 21.2 fantasy points over 57 NFL starts, Murray tore his ACL on Dec. 12 and may not be ready for the start of the season, so his recovery will have to be monitored closely over the summer. Murray regressed as a passer in 2022, averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt. But Murray finished QB2 in fantasy scoring in 2020, and at his best he's a difference-making quarterback who can rack up fantasy points with both his arm and his legs.
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155.
Kenny Pickett
QB - PIT (at BAL)
The first quarterback taken in the 2022 NFL Draft, Kenny Pickett had mixed results in his rookie season, averaging 184.9 passing yards per game and 6.2 yards per attempt, and throwing more interceptions (9) than touchdowns (7). Pickett did get less interception-prone and sack-prone as the season went on, and he guided the Steelers to victory in his final three starts. We should probably expect more below-average passing numbers from Pickett in 2023, but he offers value as a runner, having run for 237 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie.
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156.
Philadelphia Eagles
DST - PHI (at NYG)
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157.
Cordarrelle Patterson
RB - ATL (at NO)
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158.
Michael Gallup
WR - DAL (at WAS)
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159.
Jaylen Warren
RB - PIT (at BAL)
Former undrafted 2022 free agent, Jaylen Warren shined with every opportunity he got in the Steelers backfield last season. After earning the No. 2 role behind Najee Harris, Warren finished third in rushing success rate (45.5%) and second in the 2022 RB class in yards per route run behind just Breece Hall. Warren's efficient play suggests he will continue to see snaps alongside Najee Harris. But further baked into his upside case is that should Harris miss anytime, the 215-pound Warren would inherit bell-cow duties without any other Steelers RBs behind him yearning for touches.
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160.
New England Patriots
DST - NE (vs . NYJ)
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161.
Denver Broncos
DST - DEN (at LV)
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162.
Justin Tucker
K - BAL (vs . PIT)
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163.
Chuba Hubbard
RB - CAR (vs . TB)
Chuba Hubbard finished the 2022 season as PFF's 21st-highest-graded rusher averaging 4.9 yards per carry. He also flashed efficiency in the receiving game ending the year tied for 6th in yards per route run (1.55) with Austin Ekeler. After the team traded Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers, Hubbard's role increased from Week 7 onward as he was able to carve out a 1B role in the backfield alongside D'Onta Foreman. With a three-down skillset, Hubbard has massive fantasy football appeal as a handcuff to Miles Sanders in 2023. Hubbard also has a chance to capture the main RB receiving role in the Panthers backfield.
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164.
Gus Edwards
RB - BAL (vs . PIT)
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165.
Devon Achane
RB - MIA (vs . BUF)
Devon Achane finally got the chance to be the clear-cut No. 1 running back for the Aggies in 2022 with Isaiah Spiller drafted to the NFL and the uber-explosive Achane did not disappoint. The Texas A&M 4.32 RB speedster rushed for 1,100 yards and 8 rushing TDs while catching 36 balls (3.6 per game) for 196 yards on 44 targets. Good for a 33% dominator rating a year after earning a 26% dominator rating while splitting time with Spiller. And although Achane will likely go through the wringer from NFL draft pundits when it comes to his smaller stature - 5-foot-81/2, 188 pounds - he put any "can he handle a large workload" concern to rest in his final game versus LSU. Achane totaled 38 carries for 215 rushing yards and two TDs after missing a few games with an injury.
Achane ended his final college season with the second highest "hit at the line" positive run percentage, making the most of unfortunate situations when the defense pierced through the offensive line. The speedster also offers top-tier kickoff return ability, which helped boost his draft stock and get him active on game days. Achane finished as PFF's 3rd-highest graded kick returner among 2023 draft-eligible players. That ensures he will be suiting up for the Miami Dolphins early on this season, after they selected him in the 3rd round of the 2023 NFL Draft. It was the highest draft pick used on a running back by the Dolphins since Kenyan Drake. Miami is the perfect fit for Achane; his elite track speed in an outside zone running offense is going to terrify defenses. And it's not too crazy to think Achane can rise the depth chart that currently consists of a 31-year-old injury-prone Raheem Mostert and journeyman Jeff Wilson Jr. |
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166.
Zach Ertz
TE - ARI (vs . SEA)
Zach Ertz was TE3 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring through the first 10 weeks of the 2022 season, but he tore his ACL and MCL on Nov. 13. It's not clear whether Ertz will be ready for Week 1, but he should be back early in the season. The question is whether the 32-year-old Ertz will be fit enough to continue his late-career resurgence following a major knee injury. After seven strong seasons with the Eagles, Ertz had a nightmarish 2020 in which he had 36-335-1 in 11 games, missing five games with a high-ankle sprain. Ertz started the 2021 season sluggishly, but then a trade to the Cardinals seemed to rejuvenate him, and he produced useful numbers until he went down last year. Not only is Ertz coming off a major injury, but he may have to share snaps and targets with talented young Cardinals TE Trey McBride. If you're thinking about investing in Ertz for 2023, insist on a discount.
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167.
New York Jets
DST - NYJ (at NE)
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168.
Bryce Young
QB - CAR (vs . TB)
The No. 1 pick in this year's NFL Draft, Alabama's Bryce Young is a pinpoint passer with a strong arm, quick release and the sort of field-reading ability that will endear him to Panthers head coach Frank Reich. Young is agile, but he isn't going to add a great deal of fantasy value with his legs. The biggest concern with Young is his small frame. He's listed at 5-10, 204, but he might play at under 200 pounds. Young is a good bet to be the Panthers' Week 1 starter and might be able to provide fantasy managers with midrange or low-end QB2 value.
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169.
Leonard Fournette
RB - FA (BYE)
Tom Brady's retirement marked the end of Leonard Fournette with the Buccaneers. The team was pressed up versus the salary cap (31st in available salary cap space) and they took the out in Fournette's contract by releasing him. With Fournette out, Rachaad White would become the entrenched starter entering the season. White saw his role grow during the second half of the season, forcing a timeshare with Fournette. From Weeks 10-17, White operated as the 1A in the Buccaneers' backfield averaging 11 fantasy points per game (RB26) versus Fournette's 11.3 (RB23). White wasn't great as a rusher - four yards per carry, 66.4 PFF rushing grade - but no running back was particularly efficient behind Tampa's patchwork offensive line. The first-year rusher was better than the 28-year-old on the ground, as the veteran finished third-to-last in rushing EPA (-39.13) and 6th-worst in PFF rushing grade (67.6). Lombardi Lenny posted his worst efficiency marks since joining the Bucs in 2022, ranking 4th-worst in NFL next-gen stats rushing yards over expectation per attempt (-0.36). There was also no better display of the Bucs' hierarchy in their backfield than White edging out Fournette on the field than in the first round of the NFL playoffs. Fournette carried the ball just five times for 11 yards while White started and rushed for 41 yards on 7 carries, adding 4-of-6 targets for 36 yards (56% snap share). Fournette's disappointing campaign - outside all the dump-off receptions/targets - has definitely hurt his interest in the FA market.
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170.
Rashid Shaheed
WR - NO (vs . ATL)
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171.
Baltimore Ravens
DST - BAL (vs . PIT)
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172.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
RB - KC (at LAC)
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173.
Taysom Hill
TE - NO (vs . ATL)
A situational wildcat quarterback masquerading as a tight end, Taysom Hill finished TE5 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring last year. Hill was wildly inconsistent from week to week, however, and a 112-yard, three-TD rushing performance vs. Seattle in Week 5 accounted for a massive chunk of his fantasy scoring. Hill's fantasy value for 2023 depends largely on his usage. With Derek Carr arriving in New Orleans during the offseason, it seems likely the Saints will reduce Hill's snap counts, rendering him a fantasy afterthought who might have a couple of splash weeks but won't provide bankable value.
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174.
Jimmy Garoppolo
QB - LV (vs . DEN)
Jimmy Garoppolo was averaging 16.7 fantasy points per game through the first 12 weeks of the 2022 season before breaking his foot in a Week 13 game against the Dolphins. The injury ended Garoppolo's season and ended his time with the 49ers. Now Garoppolo is replacing Derek Carr as the starting quarterback for the Raiders. He isn't going to be a high-volume passer in Las Vegas, and he adds minimal rushing value, so at best Garoppolo will be a lower-end QB2 in fantasy this year. But Garoppolo is an underrated passer who's completed better than 67% of his passes in each of the last four seasons and has a career YPA of 8.3 yards. He's no fantasy savior, but he has at least modest value in redraft leagues.
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175.
Zamir White
RB - LV (vs . DEN)
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176.
Skyy Moore
WR - KC (at LAC)
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177.
Kareem Hunt
RB - FA (BYE)
There should have been a stronger case made that the Browns offense would struggle in 2022, making Kareem Hunt a tough bet to also deliver as the 1B to Nick Chubb's 1A. Hunt's bizarre lack of usage is what really held him back, but highly drafting No. 2 RBs in offenses with major question marks or turnovers is a tough sell. Hunt played over 50% of the snaps once all year (Week 1) and averaged just 9.4 touches per game, which ranked outside the top 50 running backs in 2022. In 2021, Hunt averaged nearly 3 more touches per game. The 2023 free-agent rusher was also not particularly efficient with a career-low 3.8 yards per carry. His days in Cleveland are most certainly over which opens the door for him to return to fantasy RB1 status as a new team's bellcow.
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178.
Tyler Bass
K - BUF (at MIA)
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179.
Kendre Miller
RB - NO (vs . ATL)
Kendre Miller spent his first two seasons in a two-way platoon with Zach Evans before the latter transferred to Mississippi. Miller flashed talent in limited sample size, leading the FBS in yards after contact per attempt (5.06) in 2021. But with Evans gone in 2022, Miller was thrust into the RB1 role for the Horned Frogs, where he posted a career-high 23 percent dominator rating. The bell cow rushed for nearly 1400 yards at 5-foot-11, 215 pounds (identical to Bijan Robinson), and his size is enticing in addition to the efficiency he displayed on a per-play basis at the college level. Miller's career of 3.14 yards per play ranks fourth best in the class. He's explosive with the ball in his hands, as indicated by his 21 rushes of 15-plus yards last year (tied for the fifth-highest in the class).
Per Sports Info Solutions, Miller also posted the 4th-lowest bust run rate (percentage of plays that resulted in EPA below -1) and finished first in his class in broken tackles per 100 touches (18). Miller did not test at all during the pre-draft process (recovering from post-season knee surgery), but that didn't stop the New Orleans Saints from investing a third-round pick in him during the 2023 NFL Draft. Miller is an ideal home-run hitter and 1-2 punch fit with veteran Jamaal Williams should Alvin Kamara miss anytime. |
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180.
Dalton Kincaid
TE - BUF (at MIA)
It's rare for rookie tight ends to make a significant fantasy impact, but Kincaid has a chance to provide instant value. The Bills traded up two spots in the first round of the NFL Draft to land Kincaid, who was widely regarded as the best pure pass catcher in a loaded TE class. The presence of veteran TE Dawson Knox could limit Kincaid's snaps, but he should still see his fair share of targets, and those targets will be coming from one of the NFL's top quarterbacks, Josh Allen.
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181.
Daniel Carlson
K - LV (vs . DEN)
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182.
Alec Pierce
WR - IND (vs . HOU)
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183.
Romeo Doubs
WR - GB (vs . CHI)
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184.
Wan'Dale Robinson
WR - NYG (vs . PHI)
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185.
Trey McBride
TE - ARI (vs . SEA)
The first tight end taken in the 2022 NFL Draft, second-rounder Trey McBride played sparingly early in the season but took on a larger role after Zach Ertz sustained a season-ending knee injury in Week 10. Over Arizona's final seven games, McBride was targeted 35 times and had 25-234-1. McBride finished his college career at Colorado State with a 90-catch, 1,121-yard season, but he's not likely to get that sort of usage anytime soon. It's possible McBride could get additional snaps and targets early in the season if Ertz isn't able to play in September, but even if that's the case, McBride might not be playing early-season games with QB Kyler Murray, who also tore his ACL late last season.
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186.
Hunter Renfrow
WR - LV (vs . DEN)
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187.
Harrison Butker
K - KC (at LAC)
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188.
K.J. Osborn
WR - MIN (at DET)
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189.
Michael Carter
RB - NYJ (at NE)
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190.
Curtis Samuel
WR - WAS (vs . DAL)
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191.
Noah Fant
TE - SEA (at ARI)
Noah Fant's first season in Seattle resulted in the lowest yardage total (486) of his four-year career, as he had to share TE snaps and targets with Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson. Fant is still only 25 and is one of the more athletic tight ends in the league, but that has yet to translate into a top-10 fantasy finish at the position. He's had two top-12 finishes in half-point PPR formats, however, and the combination of youth and athleticism gives him plausible fantasy upside in the later rounds of drafts. It's worth noting, however, that with the selection of WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round of the NFL Draft, the Seahawks might go with more three-WR sets and fewer two-TE sets, which could mean lower snap counts for Fant.
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192.
James Robinson
RB - NE (vs . NYJ)
James Robinson was unwanted by two different teams and was benched in favor of an undrafted free agent Zonovan Knight with the Jets. It's still Rhamondre Stevenson's backfield. And J-Rob likely prevents the Patriots from adding anybody else better. In the best case, from the Robinson perspective, the former Jet operates in a Damien Harris role.
But Robinson's contract is also very incentive-based, meaning he has to really earn his playing time. It's not guaranteed he sniffs the field, even as Stevenson's primary backup, if he can't recapture his pre-torn Achilles form. |
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193.
Chase Claypool
WR - CHI (at GB)
While consensus is ready to toss in the bag on Chase Claypool, I'm not. So quickly, everyone forgets that Claypool is an uber-athlete. His 90th percentile or higher speed and burst scores can create big plays at the drop of a hat. His rookie season marks of a 25.2% target per route run rate (15th-best) and 0.5 fantasy points per route run (14th-best) were the early signs of big time talent. Has his value dropped further after a down 2022 season? Yep. That's exactly why his ADP has dipped to the basement where it resides. Claypool showed promise of fulfilling his rookie season promise in three games with the Bears, in which he played at least 63% of the snaps. In that small three-game sample, he saw a 22.1% target share, a 50% end zone target share, 1.77 yards per route run, and a 28% target per route run rate. Claypool is one of the best WR5 upside darts to toss this year.
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194.
Hunter Henry
TE - NE (vs . NYJ)
After scoring nine touchdowns in 2021, Hunter Henry scored just two touchdowns in 2022 and finished TE21 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring. Now, he'll have to share TE targets with free-agent addition Mike Gesicki, who played for Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien at Penn State. Not counting the 2018 season, which he missed with a torn ACL, Henry has produced 500+ receiving yards in each of his last five seasons.
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195.
Evan McPherson
K - CIN (vs . CLE)
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196.
Joshua Kelley
RB - LAC (vs . KC)
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197.
John Metchie III
WR - HOU (at IND)
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198.
C.J. Stroud
QB - HOU (at IND)
The second overall pick in this year's NFL Draft, C.J. Stroud is a mature passer with a strong, accurate arm. Stroud isn't a running QB, but nor is he a statue in the pocket -- he has functional mobility to avoid sacks. Stroud won't have an abundance of pass-catching talent to help him through his rookie year with the Texans, so don't expect a great deal of fantasy value from the former Buckeye in Year 1.
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199.
Kansas City Chiefs
DST - KC (at LAC)
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200.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
WR - KC (at LAC)
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201.
Mac Jones
QB - NE (vs . NYJ)
After finishing runner-up in the Offensive Rookie of the Year balloting in 2021, Mac Jones regressed slightly in his second NFL season, with slight dips in yards per attempt, completion percentage and TD rate. Jones averaged 214.1 yards per game, with 14 TD passes and 11 INTs in 14 games. Jones offers little value as a runner, and he might already be near his ceiling as a passer. Consider Jones a fantasy backup whose primary value is that he seems entrenched as New England's starter for at least one more season, barring a challenge from young backup Bailey Zappe.
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202.
New Orleans Saints
DST - NO (vs . ATL)
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203.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DST - TB (at CAR)
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204.
Darius Slayton
WR - NYG (vs . PHI)
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205.
Chase Edmonds
RB - TB (at CAR)
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206.
Cincinnati Bengals
DST - CIN (vs . CLE)
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207.
Mecole Hardman Jr.
WR - NYJ (at NE)
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208.
Joshua Palmer
WR - LAC (vs . KC)
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209.
Ryan Tannehill
QB - TEN (vs . JAC)
Now in the twilight of his career, Tannehill should be considered a functional game manager with limited fantasy appeal. Tannehill finished as a top-12 QB in 2020 and 2021, but he boosted his fantasy value with seven TD runs in each of those two seasons, and we can't count on that sort of rushing production from a quarterback who'll be entering his age-35 season and had only two TD runs last season. Tannehill also has rookie QB Will Levis looking his shoulder, and it's possible the Titans could make a QB change at some point, particularly if they fall out of the playoff hunt.
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210.
Pittsburgh Steelers
DST - PIT (at BAL)
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211.
Trey Lance
QB - SF (vs . LAR)
Will Trey Lance be a starter when the 49ers kick off the 2023 season? It seems likely that he'll compete with Brock Purdy for the starter's job (assuming Purdy's elbow has healed by late summer), and it's possible 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan will put his thumb on the scale for Purdy after the seventh-round pick from Iowa State helped guide the Niners into the playoffs. The 49ers have added Sam Darnold to the mix as well. Lance is a dangerous runner with ample arm talent, and this will be his age-23 season, so there's plenty of time for him to make good on the potential that inspired the 49ers to give away multiple first-round draft picks in order to trade up and draft Lance. But the North Dakota State product has thrown just 420 passes since high school and still has a great deal to prove. Lance could be one of the best QB values of 2023 or a complete waste of a draft pick.
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212.
Jerome Ford
RB - CLE (at CIN)
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213.
Jelani Woods
TE - IND (vs . HOU)
A 6-foot-7, 265-pound behemoth, Jelani Woods had some impressive flashes in his rookie season, including a two-TD game against the Chiefs in Week 3 and an eight-catch, 98-yard game against the Steelers in Week 12. With 4.61 speed and a 98th percentile catch radius (per PlayerProfiler.com), Woods has tools to dream on and figures to become an even bigger part of the Colts' offense in 2023.
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214.
Allen Robinson II
WR - PIT (at BAL)
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215.
Younghoe Koo
K - ATL (at NO)
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216.
Jalin Hyatt
WR - NYG (vs . PHI)
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217.
Isaiah Hodgins
WR - NYG (vs . PHI)
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218.
Roschon Johnson
RB - CHI (at GB)
Rookie running back Roschon Johnson posted an absurd 49% missed tackle rate in 2022, while also finishing fourth in yards after contact per attempt among the 2023 draft class. Simply put, he would be talked about much more had he not been seated on the depth chart behind college football's best running back: Bijan Robinson.
He only started five games in 47 total games played at Texas. But Johnson possesses bell-cow size at 6 feet and 219 pounds with tenacity to boot. He jumped 122 inches in the broad jump (78th percentile) at the NFL Scouting Combine Johnson was selected by the Chicago Bears in the fourth round of the 2023 NFL Draft and will compete with veterans D'Onta Foreman and Khalil Herbert for snaps. Johnson will find earning playing time will be much easier to do competing with the likes of non-Bijan Robinson running backs. Don't be surprised if RJ beats out Foreman by the time training camp concludes. His trusted work on special teams and pass protection should get him on the field sooner rather than later. |
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219.
Sam LaPorta
TE - DET (vs . MIN)
An early-second-round selection in this year's NFL Draft, LaPorta should step right into a significant role with the Lions and could see decent target volume right away, particularly with Lions WR Jameson Williams serving a six-game gambling suspension at the start of the season. The 6-3, 250-pound LaPorta ran a 4.59 at the NFL Scouting Combine and posted a Relative Athletic Score of 9.02. He has a chance to provide low-end TE1 value as a rookie, but TE2 production might be a more reasonable expectation.
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220.
Jason Sanders
K - MIA (vs . BUF)
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221.
Washington Commanders
DST - WAS (vs . DAL)
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222.
Van Jefferson
WR - LAR (at SF)
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223.
Tyquan Thornton
WR - NE (vs . NYJ)
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224.
DeVante Parker
WR - NE (vs . NYJ)
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225.
Michael Mayer
TE - LV (vs . DEN)
Regarded by many as the top two-way tight end in the Class of 2023, Michael Mayer of Notre Dame has drawn comparisons to Jason Witten because he shines as both a pass catcher and blocker. Mayer had more than 800 receiving yards in each of his last two college seasons, scoring seven touchdowns in 2021 and nine in 2022. Mayer will replace Darren Waller as the Raiders' top tight end and should at least flirt with fantasy relevance as a rookie.
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226.
Irv Smith Jr.
TE - CIN (vs . CLE)
Hopes were high for Irv Smith Jr. in 2022 after he missed the entire 2021 season with a torn meniscus in his knee, but Smith endured a high-ankle sprain in Week 8 and didn't make it back until Week 18. Smith finished the year with 25 catches for 182 yards and two touchdowns in eight games. Smith won't turn 25 until August, so there's still hope that the former second-round draft pick will become a fantasy-viable tight end, but he's likely to be an afterthought in most 2023 fantasy drafts.
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227.
Miami Dolphins
DST - MIA (vs . BUF)
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228.
Los Angeles Chargers
DST - LAC (vs . KC)
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229.
Tank Bigsby
RB - JAC (at TEN)
Cartavious "Tank" Bigsby has been a force for the Auburn Tigers since he first stepped on the school campus. He took over as the team's starting running back as a freshman in 2020, earning a 20% dominator rating. Bigsby would build off his hot start as a sophomore with a 25% dominator rating followed by a career-high 27% dominator rating his junior year. The 6-foot, 210-pound back finished 6th in yards after contact per attempt (4.16), 11th in forced missed tackles, 11th in PFF rushing grade and 7th in breakaway run rate among his 2023 draft-eligible RB peers.
Although Bigsby is not overly athletic, based on his "meh" testing at the combine. 26th percentile vertical jump, 54th percentile broad jump and a 4.56 40-yard dash (47th percentile). Bigsby did improve on his 40-time at Auburn's pro day, running a 4.45. He was drafted by the Jaguars in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft and will compete for the No. 2 job behind Travis Etienne. Head coach Doug Pederson has spoken all offseason about building a deep RB room, so the Bigsby selection was not shocking. |
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230.
Pierre Strong Jr.
RB - NE (vs . NYJ)
|
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231.
Matt Gay
K - IND (vs . HOU)
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232.
Desmond Ridder
QB - ATL (at NO)
The Falcons didn't make any significant moves at quarterback during the offseason, so Ridder is expected to remain Atlanta's starter. He was predictably uneven in his four regular-season starts as a rookie, completing 63.2% of his passes, averaging 6.2 yards per attempts, and throwing two TD passes and zero interceptions. But Ridder is a good runner, and his ability to contribute with his legs makes him a potentially stream-worthy quarterback for 2023.
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233.
Nick Folk
K - NE (vs . NYJ)
|
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234.
Tim Patrick
WR - DEN (at LV)
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235.
Hayden Hurst
TE - CAR (vs . TB)
After catching 26 passes for the Falcons in 2021, Hayden Hurst had 52 receptions for the Bengals in 2022, but he averaged a career-low 8.0 yards per catch and scored only two touchdowns. Now with the Panthers, Hurst will be entering his age-30 season. The change of venue improves Hurst's target outlook, but those targets will probably be coming from a rookie quarterback and won't be as valuable as targets from Joe Burrow.
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236.
Brandon McManus
K - JAC (at TEN)
|
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237.
Cleveland Browns
DST - CLE (at CIN)
|
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238.
Los Angeles Rams
DST - LAR (at SF)
|
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239.
Corey Davis
WR - NYJ (at NE)
|
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240.
Isaiah Likely
TE - BAL (vs . PIT)
Fourth-round draft pick Isaiah Likely turned heads in training camp and the preseason last summer and then had a solid if erratic rookie season for the Ravens, finishing with 36 catches for 373 yards and three touchdowns. The question is whether Likely can become a consistent fantasy contributor as the No. 2 tight end in Baltimore behind prolific pass catcher Mark Andrews.
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241.
Indianapolis Colts
DST - IND (vs . HOU)
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242.
Jake Elliott
K - PHI (at NYG)
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243.
Sam Howell
QB - WAS (vs . DAL)
Sam Howell rode the bench for the first 16 games of his rookie year before the Commanders gave him a Week 18 start. Howell was functional if unspectacular, completing 11-of-19 passes for 169 yards, one touchdown and one interception in a 26-6 win over Dallas. Commanders head coach Ron Rivera says Howell has a chance to open the 2023 season as Washington's starting quarterback. A fifth-round draft pick in 2022, Howell had strong freshman and sophomore seasons at the University of North Carolina before regressing somewhat in his third and final year. Howell doesn't have exceptional arm talent, but his above-average mobility could boost his fantasy value.
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244.
Green Bay Packers
DST - GB (vs . CHI)
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245.
Jason Myers
K - SEA (at ARI)
|
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246.
Isaiah Spiller
RB - LAC (vs . KC)
|
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247.
Parris Campbell
WR - NYG (vs . PHI)
|
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248.
Terrace Marshall Jr.
WR - CAR (vs . TB)
|
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249.
Josh Downs
WR - IND (vs . HOU)
|
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250.
Russell Gage
WR - TB (at CAR)
|
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251.
Zonovan Knight
RB - NYJ (at NE)
|
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252.
Robert Woods
WR - HOU (at IND)
|
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253.
Graham Gano
K - NYG (vs . PHI)
|
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254.
Zack Moss
RB - IND (vs . HOU)
|
|
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255.
Jonathan Mingo
WR - CAR (vs . TB)
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256.
Brock Purdy
QB - SF (vs . LAR)
The last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, Brock Purdy was hardly "Mr. Irrelevant" as a rookie. After Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo sustained season-ending injuries, the 49ers turned to Purdy as their starter, and he obliged with smart, mistake-free football, guiding the 49ers all the way to the NFL Championship Game before a torn UCL ended his season and torpedoed the 49ers' title hopes. Assuming Purdy's recovery goes smoothly, he'll likely compete with Lance for a starting role in 2023. The 49ers traded up to draft Lance No. 3 overall in 2021, but head coach Kyle Shanahan could decide that Purdy is simply a better distributor and a better candidate to fully leverage San Francisco's abundant skill-position talent.
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257.
D'Ernest Johnson
RB - JAC (at TEN)
|
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258.
Matt Prater
K - ARI (vs . SEA)
|
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259.
Boston Scott
RB - PHI (at NYG)
|
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260.
Zach Evans
RB - LAR (at SF)
Zach Evans spent his first two college seasons at TCU, seeing seldom usage alongside fellow 2023 draft prospect Kendre Miller. Evans was the clear frontrunner in the backfield to start his sophomore campaign but suffered a turf toe injury that cut his 2021 season short. Evans would go on to transfer to Ole Miss at the start of the 2022 season, where he posted his best college counting stats to date with a 17 percent dominator rating. His 15% boom percentage per Sports Info Solutions led all RBs in his class.
However, he failed to fully take over at the backfield as he did at TCU, losing out on touches to freshman running back Quinshon Judkins. The fact that Evans has struggled to fully take over a backfield at the college level -- along with no contributing role as a receiver -- is a major red flag as he makes his way into the NFL, but his efficient play when on the field suggests he can deliver when called upon. His career average of 3.47 yards per play ranks second-best among the incoming rookie RBs I sampled earlier this offseason. Yards per play is a great indicator of future success, with recent late-round standouts in that category the past two years including Elijah Mitchell, Rhamondre Stevenson, Rachaad White, and Tyler Allgeier. Evans also boasts decent size at 5-foot-11 and 202 pounds - albeit the weight he measured at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine was much lighter than his listed weight at Ole Miss (216 pounds). At the Ole Miss pro day, Evans posted a 4.45 40-time, ran a 4.26 20-yard shuttle and finished the 3-cone drill in 7.08 seconds. In the 2023 NFL Draft L.A. traded No. 252 and a sixth-round pick in 2024 to the Bills for Pick 215, where they selected the Ole Miss running back. Evans' best-case scenario was landing on a weak depth chart, and there is nobody threatening behind Cam Akers in the Rams backfield. |
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261.
Jacksonville Jaguars
DST - JAC (at TEN)
|
|
262.
Greg Zuerlein
K - NYJ (at NE)
|
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263.
Baker Mayfield
QB - TB (at CAR)
|
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264.
Greg Joseph
K - MIN (at DET)
|
|
265.
Carolina Panthers
DST - CAR (vs . TB)
|
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266.
Sterling Shepard
WR - NYG (vs . PHI)
|
|
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267.
Jordan Mason
RB - SF (vs . LAR)
|
|
268.
Isaiah McKenzie
WR - IND (vs . HOU)
|
|
269.
Wil Lutz
K - NO (vs . ATL)
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|
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270.
Tyjae Spears
RB - TEN (vs . JAC)
Tyjae Spears boosted his draft stock dramatically as a buzzy player at the Senior Bowl, and his atomic rise up the draft boards continued at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine in Indianapolis. Spears weighed in at 5-foot-10 and 201 pounds. He did not run the 40-yard dash but instead nearly jumped out of the building in the explosion drills. His vertical jump of 39″ ranked in the 92nd percentile and was second only to Chase Brown. Spears' broad jump ranked third in the class at 125″ which ranked in the 89th percentile.
The Tulane running back will be one of my top rookie running back targets after he posted a 31 percent dominator rating in 2022, finishing 5th in the FBS in rushing yards (1,586), second in rushing TDs (19), and fourth in yards after contact per attempt (4.55). Per Sports Info Solutions' total points model, Spears finished third in total points per game and total EPA generated per game. He also finished second in the class in pass pro snaps per game (8.1), something NFL coaches will drool over. Throughout his career, he boasts an impressive 3.00 yards per play (seventh best in the class) - a great indicator of future success at the NFL level. The Titans selected Spears in the 3rd round of the 2023 NFL Draft despite scary reports regarding Spears' short shelf life based on previous knee injuries. For 2023 alone, he's a high-upside handcuff option should anything happen to Derrick Henry. |
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271.
Kyren Williams
RB - LAR (at SF)
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272.
Jayden Reed
WR - GB (vs . CHI)
The Green Bay passing attack is wide open after Christian Watson. Reed will be a starter immediately and should have no problems hopping Romeo Doubs in the pecking order. Reed is a good fit for this offensive system with his strong lower half and YAC ability. He should allow easy completions for Jordan Love with the talent to do something with the ball in his hands. He flashed better route running chops at the Senior Bowl in Mobile than I gave him credit for after examining his college film. Grab him at the end of your drafts. He's worth a stash and hold to see how this Packer offense unfolds. He could easily be a weekly flex play that pays huge dividends as we move through the fantasy season.
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273.
Nyheim Hines
RB - BUF (at MIA)
|
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274.
Dustin Hopkins
K - LAC (vs . KC)
|
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275.
Cade Otton
TE - TB (at CAR)
Fourth-round draft pick Cade Otton turned in a solid rookie season for the Buccaneers, finishing with 42 catches for 391 yards and two touchdowns. Otton tended to be more productive in games that fellow TE Cameron Brate missed die to injury. The Buccaneers have an unsettled QB situation following Tom Brady's retirement, so Otton has a difficult path to fantasy relevance in 2023.
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276.
Rashee Rice
WR - KC (at LAC)
He is a talented rookie wide receiver drafted in the second round of the NFL Draft and now finds himself tied to Patrick Mahomes. Where have I heard this before? Oh, that's right. Skyy Moore stole my heart last year, only to be limited weekly by Andy Reid. Just because I (and many others) were burned last year doesn't mean I'm shying away from Rice. That worry and recency bias will keep many from pressing the button when on the clock in fantasy drafts. His risk will likely be baked into his ADP, so the worries should be factored in. Rice is a zone coverage destroyer who could take over for Chief Juju Smith-Schuster's role in this offense. He has experience playing both the perimeter and slot extensively. Last year he ranked first in PFF receiving grade against zone and third in yards per route run against the coverage type (minimum 20 zone targets per PFF). Rice produced a 64th percentile college dominator and 96th percentile collegiate target share at SMU. If Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore aren't up to operating as Mahomes' number two target, don't rule out Rice to seize the opportunity.
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277.
Mack Hollins
WR - ATL (at NO)
|
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278.
Josh Reynolds
WR - DET (vs . MIN)
|
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279.
Israel Abanikanda
RB - NYJ (at NE)
Israel "Izzy" Abanikanda didn't do much at Pittsburgh during his first two years there, but he finally broke out in 2022 as the team's No. 1 running back. The 5-foot-10 and 216-pound running back rushed for 1,426 yards and 20 touchdowns en route to a 39% dominator rating. Abanikanda would go on to finish as PFF's 8th-highest rusher in his draft class.
At Pitt's pro day, Abanikanda ran an unofficial 4.41 40-yard dash with some reports claiming he got under 4.3. He also jumped out of the building hitting 41 inches in the vertical (97th percentile) and 128 inches in the broad jump (95th percentile). His size/speed profile is extremely enticing. |
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280.
Khalil Shakir
WR - BUF (at MIA)
|
|
281.
Robbie Gould
K - FA (BYE)
|
|
282.
Marvin Jones Jr.
WR - DET (vs . MIN)
|
|
283.
Logan Thomas
TE - WAS (vs . DAL)
|
|
284.
JaMycal Hasty
RB - JAC (at TEN)
|
|
285.
Kendrick Bourne
WR - NE (vs . NYJ)
|
|
|
286.
Chase Brown
RB - CIN (vs . CLE)
|
|
|
287.
Tyrion Davis-Price
RB - SF (vs . LAR)
|
|
288.
Ryan Succop
K - FA (BYE)
|
|
289.
New York Giants
DST - NYG (vs . PHI)
|
|
290.
Ronald Jones II
RB - DAL (at WAS)
|
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291.
Daniel Bellinger
TE - NYG (vs . PHI)
Fourth-round draft pick Daniel Bellinger showed promise in 2022 but missed four midseason games after an eye injury that included a fractured orbital bone. The 6-6, 255-pound Bellinger finished with 30 catches for 268 yards and two touchdowns in 12 games. The Giants' offseason signing of Darren Waller renders Bellinger undraftable in most fantasy leagues, but considering Waller's recent injury history, Bellinger could become a worthy waiver target at some point during the 2023 season.
|
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292.
Chris Boswell
K - PIT (at BAL)
|
|
293.
Tennessee Titans
DST - TEN (vs . JAC)
|
|
294.
Seattle Seahawks
DST - SEA (at ARI)
|
|
295.
Richie James Jr.
WR - KC (at LAC)
|
|
296.
Riley Patterson
K - DET (vs . MIN)
|
|
297.
Kayshon Boutte
WR - NE (vs . NYJ)
|
|
298.
Devin Duvernay
WR - BAL (vs . PIT)
|
|
299.
Detroit Lions
DST - DET (vs . MIN)
|
|
300.
Marvin Mims Jr.
WR - DEN (at LV)
Sean Payton traded up in the second round of the NFL Draft to take the talented rookie from Oklahoma. Mims closes his collegiate career with a 94th percentile yards per reception and 96th percentile breakout age. Mims can work underneath and take the top off defenses with his 4.38 speed. He can also play above the rim with exceptional leaping ability and body control. Mims could be fighting for playing time with Tim Patrick from the outset, but it's possible he hops him on the depth chart and becomes a full-time starter immediately with a strong camp and preseason. Mims is a fantastic WR5 draft pick to stash on your bench. He could be a stretch-run hero and difference-maker in the fantasy playoffs if this offense bounces back from last year's pitiful showing.
|
|
301.
KJ Hamler
WR - DEN (at LV)
|
|
302.
Albert Okwuegbunam
TE - DEN (at LV)
Albert Okwuegbunam is one of the fastest, most athletic tight ends in the league, but he's been unable to gain a sturdy foothold in the Broncos' offense during his first three NFL seasons. It's possible that the arrival of new head coach Sean Payton will finally unlock Albert O's potential as he heads into his age-25 season. Okwuegbunam bears watching this summer for signs of progress.
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|
303.
Ka'imi Fairbairn
K - HOU (at IND)
|
|
304.
Latavius Murray
RB - BUF (at MIA)
Latavius Murray performed well when Denver scooped him up during the middle of last season after Javonte Williams went down with a devastating knee injury. In 12 games from Weeks 6-18, Murray was the RB24 in half-point scoring averaging 10.3 points per game (RB30). He was PFF's 10th-highest graded rusher (82.8) and averaged 15 touches per game. Murray also averaged nearly 70 yards from scrimmage and 3 targets per game. Not too shabby for the 33-year-old running back.
|
|
305.
Quez Watkins
WR - PHI (at NYG)
|
|
306.
Austin Hooper
TE - LV (vs . DEN)
|
|
307.
Cairo Santos
K - CHI (at GB)
|
|
308.
Minnesota Vikings
DST - MIN (at DET)
|
|
309.
Laviska Shenault Jr.
WR - CAR (vs . TB)
|
|
|
310.
Luke Musgrave
TE - GB (vs . CHI)
One of the top pass-catching tight ends in a loaded rookie TE class, Luke Musgrave should have a significant 2023 role with the Packers, who had bare cupboards at the position before the draft. Musgrave is a big target (6-6, 253) and runs like a gazelle (4.61). He has the inside track to start for the Packers right away, but it's not a slam dunk. Green Bay also drafted TE Tucker Kraft in the third round, and Kraft is a good prospect himself.
|
|
311.
Hassan Haskins
RB - TEN (vs . JAC)
|
|
312.
David Bell
WR - CLE (at CIN)
|
|
313.
Matt Breida
RB - NYG (vs . PHI)
|
|
314.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
WR - TEN (vs . JAC)
|
|
315.
Sean Tucker
RB - TB (at CAR)
|
|
316.
Arizona Cardinals
DST - ARI (vs . SEA)
|
|
317.
Brett Maher
K - FA (BYE)
|
|
318.
Michael Badgley
K - DET (vs . MIN)
|
|
319.
Braxton Berrios
WR - MIA (vs . BUF)
|
|
320.
Robert Tonyan
TE - CHI (at GB)
|
|
321.
Chris Evans
RB - CIN (vs . CLE)
|
|
|
322.
Jake Moody
K - SF (vs . LAR)
|
|
323.
Tyler Conklin
TE - NYJ (at NE)
A low-ceiling, high-floor fantasy option, Tyler Conklin has finished TE17 and TE16 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring the last two seasons. It's possible Conklin's ceiling could get a little higher if Aaron Rodgers is starting games for the Jets in 2023.
|
|
324.
Jonnu Smith
TE - ATL (at NO)
|
|
325.
Mason Crosby
K - FA (BYE)
|
|
|
326.
Evan Hull
RB - IND (vs . HOU)
Evan Hull was a draft-day steal for the Colts on Day 3. The Northwestern product spent the past two seasons owning his team's backfield as a mega-producer posting back-to-back seasons with a 35% dominator rating. The 5-foot-10 and 209-pound back hauled in 87 passes for 800 receiving yards as a full-blown three-down back while forcing over 100 missed tackles.
With a decorated production profile and desirable athleticism - 78th percentile or better tester in the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump and 3-cone drill - Hull rising the ranks in Indy's backfield should surprise nobody. He led all FBS running backs in receptions and receiving yards in 2022. |
|
|
327.
Luke Schoonmaker
TE - DAL (at WAS)
|
|
328.
Eno Benjamin
RB - NO (vs . ATL)
|
|
329.
J.D. McKissic
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
330.
Nelson Agholor
WR - BAL (vs . PIT)
|
|
331.
Julio Jones
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
332.
Melvin Gordon III
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
|
333.
DeWayne McBride
RB - MIN (at DET)
DeWayne McBride has been doing it all for the UAB Blazers over the last three seasons, totaling a top five dominator rating (27 percent) for his excellent efforts. He ranks first in the class in career yards per play (4.18) for being so efficient anytime he is on the field. His production is captured in his PFF grades, with him finishing second, eighth, and third, in PFF grading the last three seasons, respectively. Aside from being a complete afterthought in the passing game, McBride checks off a lot of boxes you want to see from a smaller school prospect, and he easily saved his best for last as a junior, finishing second in the FBS in rushing yards (1702, 155 yards per game), second in yards after contact per attempt (4.6) and fifth in dominator rating (35 percent) among the 2023 draft class. Per PFF, his 36 percent missed tackle rate ranks third all-time since the data started being tracked.
With desirable size at 5-foot-10 and 209 pounds, McBride is emerging as one of my favorite sleeper running backs in the incoming class. He was selected in the 7th of the 2023 NFL Draft by the Minnesota Vikings. |
|
334.
Kenyan Drake
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
|
335.
Cedric Tillman
WR - CLE (at CIN)
|
|
336.
Jake Ferguson
TE - DAL (at WAS)
|
|
337.
Will Levis
QB - TEN (vs . JAC)
Rookie Will Levis has immense potential but might need a few years before he's ready to fulfill it. Expected to be drafted in the first round but instead selected early in the second, Levis has prototypical size (6-3, 232 pounds), a cannon arm and dynamic rushing ability. But Levis is coming off a somewhat disappointing final college season at Kentucky, and he's expected to serve an apprenticeship behind incumbent Titans starter Ryan Tannehill in his first NFL season.
|
|
|
338.
Darnell Washington
TE - PIT (at BAL)
|
|
339.
Salvon Ahmed
RB - MIA (vs . BUF)
|
|
|
340.
Deuce Vaughn
RB - DAL (at WAS)
|
|
341.
Jarvis Landry
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
342.
Jacoby Brissett
QB - WAS (vs . DAL)
|
|
343.
Rodrigo Blankenship
K - FA (BYE)
|
|
344.
Darrell Henderson Jr.
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
|
345.
Tank Dell
WR - HOU (at IND)
|
|
|
346.
Justyn Ross
WR - KC (at LAC)
|
|
347.
Chosen Anderson
WR - MIA (vs . BUF)
|
|
348.
Justin Jackson
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
349.
Dontrell Hilliard
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
350.
DeeJay Dallas
RB - SEA (at ARI)
|
|
351.
Jamison Crowder
WR - NYG (vs . PHI)
|
|
|
352.
Puka Nacua
WR - LAR (at SF)
|
|
|
353.
Eric Gray
RB - NYG (vs . PHI)
Eric Gray first burst onto the college football scene at Tennessee in 2020, rushing for 758 yards and four TDs with 31 catches for 262 yards en route to a 26% dominator rating as a sophomore. After the season, Gray transferred to Oklahoma for his last two years of college ball. His numbers fell after he lost his starting job in 2021, but he regained RB1 duties the following year. And he made his final year count, posting a 26% dominator rating with Kennedy Brooks off to the NFL.
Gray finished the 2022 season third in the class in PFF receiving grade and fifth in PFF rushing grade. The 5-foot-9 and 207-pound rusher finished the year third in positive rushing EPA and fourth in boom rate (rushes generating an EPA of one-plus). And per Sports Info Solutions, Gray posted the highest missed tackle rate per 100 touches in the class. It's also entirely possible that Gray could have been selected earlier by the Giants if they had more picks available to them. Big Blue didn't have any other picks after 73rd overall until they selected Gray with the 172nd pick. Considering Saquon Barkley has yet to sign his franchise tag, Gray is a player worth monitoring. New York's RB depth chart is barren behind Barkley. Could easily see this Giants coaching staff falling in love with Gray. He totaled 549 carries in college and never fumbled. |
|
354.
Myles Gaskin
RB - MIA (vs . BUF)
|
|
355.
Sam Darnold
QB - SF (vs . LAR)
The third overall pick of the 2018 draft, Sam Darnold probably won't ever live up to the expectations he carried coming out of USC, but a move to San Francisco makes him an intriguing backup for the 49ers and their high-powered offense. Darnold gave the Panthers some spurts of functionality over the last two years. His career passing numbers aren't particularly impressive, but he's been surprisingly effective as a runner, with 328 rushing yards and seven TD runs in 18 games over the last two years.
|
|
356.
Chicago Bears
DST - CHI (at GB)
|
|
357.
Keaontay Ingram
RB - ARI (vs . SEA)
|
|
358.
Darrel Williams
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
359.
Gardner Minshew II
QB - IND (vs . HOU)
|
|
|
360.
Xavier Hutchinson
WR - HOU (at IND)
|
|
|
361.
Tucker Kraft
TE - GB (vs . CHI)
|
|
362.
Cade York
K - CLE (at CIN)
|
|
363.
Foster Moreau
TE - NO (vs . ATL)
|
|
364.
Kyle Philips
WR - TEN (vs . JAC)
|
|
365.
Houston Texans
DST - HOU (at IND)
|
|
366.
Malik Davis
RB - DAL (at WAS)
|
|
367.
Greg Dortch
WR - ARI (vs . SEA)
|
|
|
368.
Kenny McIntosh
RB - SEA (at ARI)
|
|
369.
Marlon Mack
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
370.
Adam Trautman
TE - DEN (at LV)
|
|
371.
Donald Parham Jr.
TE - LAC (vs . KC)
|
|
372.
Jameis Winston
QB - NO (vs . ATL)
Jameis Winston started the first three games of 2022 for the Saints, sustained four fractures in his back in Week 4, and then was never reinstated as the starter even after his back had healed. The 29-year-old has a strong arm and 80 NFL starts under his belt, but it appears Winston is destined for backup duty again now that the Saints have added Derek Carr.
|
|
373.
Ty Johnson
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
374.
Atlanta Falcons
DST - ATL (at NO)
|
|
|
375.
A.T. Perry
WR - NO (vs . ATL)
|
|
376.
Chase McLaughlin
K - TB (at CAR)
|
|
377.
Noah Gray
TE - KC (at LAC)
Chiefs TE Noah Gray is destined to have limited fantasy potential as long as he's playing behind Travis Kelce. But Gray, a fifth-round pick in 2021, is an athletic pass catcher whose career is worth monitoring. Gray had 28 catches for 299 yards and one touchdown last season. He'd be a hot waiver wire pickup if Kelce were to ever get hurt.
|
|
378.
Deonte Harty
WR - BUF (at MIA)
|
|
379.
Mo Alie-Cox
TE - IND (vs . HOU)
|
|
380.
Brevin Jordan
TE - HOU (at IND)
|
|
381.
Rex Burkhead
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
382.
Tutu Atwell
WR - LAR (at SF)
|
|
383.
Mark Ingram II
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
384.
Cameron Dicker
K - LAC (vs . KC)
|
|
|
385.
Tyler Scott
WR - CHI (at GB)
|
|
386.
Noah Brown
WR - HOU (at IND)
|
|
387.
Colt McCoy
QB - ARI (vs . SEA)
|
|
388.
Trayveon Williams
RB - CIN (vs . CLE)
|
|
389.
Ben Skowronek
WR - LAR (at SF)
|
|
390.
Kenny Golladay
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
391.
Marquez Callaway
WR - DEN (at LV)
|
|
392.
Randy Bullock
K - FA (BYE)
|
|
|
393.
Michael Wilson
WR - ARI (vs . SEA)
|
|
|
394.
Chad Ryland
K - NE (vs . NYJ)
|
|
395.
Eddy Pineiro
K - CAR (vs . TB)
|
|
396.
Bailey Zappe
QB - NE (vs . NYJ)
|
|
397.
Harrison Bryant
TE - CLE (at CIN)
|
|
398.
Tristan Vizcaino
K - DAL (at WAS)
|
|
399.
Tyler Davis
K - FA (BYE)
|
|
400.
Kevin Harris
RB - NE (vs . NYJ)
|
|
401.
Will Dissly
TE - SEA (at ARI)
|
|
402.
Ty Chandler
RB - MIN (at DET)
|
|
403.
C.J. Uzomah
TE - NYJ (at NE)
|
|
404.
Kyle Trask
QB - TB (at CAR)
|
|
405.
Taylor Heinicke
QB - ATL (at NO)
|
|
406.
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
RB - TB (at CAR)
|
|
|
407.
Parker Washington
WR - JAC (at TEN)
|
|
408.
O.J. Howard
TE - LV (vs . DEN)
|
|
409.
Chris Moore
WR - TEN (vs . JAC)
|
|
410.
Jauan Jennings
WR - SF (vs . LAR)
|
|
411.
Deon Jackson
RB - IND (vs . HOU)
|
|
412.
Trey Sermon
RB - PHI (at NYG)
|
|
413.
Justin Watson
WR - KC (at LAC)
|
|
|
414.
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
RB - WAS (vs . DAL)
|
|
415.
Jalen Tolbert
WR - DAL (at WAS)
|
|
|
416.
Anders Carlson
K - GB (vs . CHI)
|
|
417.
Jordan Akins
TE - CLE (at CIN)
|
|
418.
Zane Gonzalez
K - SF (vs . LAR)
|
|
419.
Sammy Watkins
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
420.
Las Vegas Raiders
DST - LV (vs . DEN)
|
|
421.
Ameer Abdullah
RB - LV (vs . DEN)
|
|
|
422.
Charlie Jones
WR - CIN (vs . CLE)
|
|
423.
Peyton Hendershot
TE - DAL (at WAS)
|
|
424.
Craig Reynolds
RB - DET (vs . MIN)
|
|
425.
Cedrick Wilson Jr.
WR - MIA (vs . BUF)
|
|
426.
Mike White
QB - MIA (vs . BUF)
|
|
|
427.
Trey Palmer
WR - TB (at CAR)
|
|
428.
Calvin Austin III
WR - PIT (at BAL)
|
|
429.
Trestan Ebner
RB - CHI (at GB)
|
|
430.
Joey Slye
K - WAS (vs . DAL)
|
|
431.
Raheem Blackshear
RB - CAR (vs . TB)
|
|
432.
Kene Nwangwu
RB - MIN (at DET)
|
|
433.
Jalen Guyton
WR - LAC (vs . KC)
|
|
434.
Kylen Granson
TE - IND (vs . HOU)
|
|
435.
Trent Sherfield
WR - BUF (at MIA)
|
|
436.
Kalif Raymond
WR - DET (vs . MIN)
|
|
437.
Carson Wentz
QB - FA (BYE)
After washing out as the Colts' starter in 2021, Carson Wentz was similarly disappointing in Washington last season, averaging only 6.4 yards per pass attempt over eight games. Wentz is unlikely to begin the 2023 season as a starter, though it's possible he could make a few early-season starts for a team looking to bring along a rookie quarterback slowly.
|
|
438.
Dyami Brown
WR - WAS (vs . DAL)
|
|
439.
Rico Dowdle
RB - DAL (at WAS)
|
|
|
440.
Mohamed Ibrahim
RB - DET (vs . MIN)
|
|
|
441.
Tanner Brown
K - LAR (at SF)
|
|
|
442.
Zack Kuntz
TE - NYJ (at NE)
|
|
443.
Brock Wright
TE - DET (vs . MIN)
|
|
444.
Velus Jones Jr.
WR - CHI (at GB)
|
|
445.
Zach Wilson
QB - NYJ (at NE)
Zach Wilson is coming off a disastrous 2022 season in which he completed 54.5% of his passes, threw more interceptions (7) than TD passes (6), and lost four of his last five starts. The Jets viewed Wilson as their quarterback of the future after drafting him No. 2 overall in 2021, but it's now he's ticketed for a backup role. Wilson has NFL-caliber arm talent and above-average mobility, so it's too early to completely slam the door on him, but Wilson's future is very uncertain.
|
|
446.
Demarcus Robinson
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
447.
Tre'Quan Smith
WR - NO (vs . ATL)
|
|
448.
Durham Smythe
TE - MIA (vs . BUF)
|
|
449.
Andy Dalton
QB - CAR (vs . TB)
|
|
450.
DeAndre Carter
WR - LV (vs . DEN)
|
|
451.
Kyle Rudolph
TE - FA (BYE)
|
|
452.
Hunter Long
TE - LAR (at SF)
|
|
453.
Jamal Agnew
WR - JAC (at TEN)
|
|
|
454.
Hendon Hooker
QB - DET (vs . MIN)
|
|
|
455.
Tiyon Evans
RB - LAR (at SF)
|
|
456.
Mike Boone
RB - HOU (at IND)
|