Fantasy Football Player Notes
2021 Draft Rankings
|
1.
Christian McCaffrey
RB - CAR (at TB)
There have been 109 running back performances that have netted 25-plus half-PPR points over the last two years. Despite missing essentially the whole 2020 season, McCaffrey has accounted for 9.2 percent of them. He's somehow managed to score 25-plus points in 10 of his last 19 games, and has scored fewer than 19 fantasy points in just two of them. He's basically posting quarterback numbers as a running back. He should be the No. 1 pick in 2021 drafts.
|
|
2.
Dalvin Cook
RB - MIN (vs . CHI)
Despite missing four games over the last two years, Cook has still managed to rack up 3,572 total yards and 30 touchdowns. He's still yet to play 16 games in his four-year career, but when he's on the field, he's a surefire RB1. In each of the final 12 games he played in 2020, he touched the ball a minimum of 17 times, including 24-plus touches in nine of them. The craziest part about his numbers, though, is the fact that he has 97 receptions for 880 yards over the last two years, but just one receiving touchdown, so there's room for even more of a ceiling.
|
|
3.
Derrick Henry
RB - TEN (at HOU)
The man just keeps getting better... Every year he's been in the league, we've watched his rushing yardage go up by at least 250 yards. I'm sure he peaked last year with 2,027 yards on the ground, but now going to a 17-game season, maybe I'm wrong. Henry should be in scoring position quite a bit this year knowing the Titans went out and acquired Julio Jones this offseason. There's no scenario where your offense gets worse in that equation. However, we don't know how the offense is going to look in 2021, as Arthur Smith (offensive coordinator the last two years) is gone. Still, with Jones and A.J. Brown on the perimeter, it's going to be tough for opponents to stack the box the way they have against Henry the last few years, so his efficiency may actually go up. There are certainly some variables to his projections, but Henry has proven that despite his lack of usage in the passing game, he's going to make up for it on the ground.
|
|
4.
Saquon Barkley
RB - NYG (vs . WAS)
After setting the fantasy world on fire his rookie season with over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 15 touchdowns, Barkley hasn't exactly lived up to expectations producing 1,535 total yards and eight touchdowns over 15 games the last two seasons. He tore his ACL early in the season, which should give him plenty of time to bounce back, though his violent running style could take a bit longer in recovery. The Giants suddenly have more weapons than ever in the passing game, so Barkley is unlikely to come close to the 121 targets he saw in 2018, though he should have more scoring opportunities. There is some risk with Barkley at the top of drafts due to his knee, but when on the field, we know he'll produce.
|
|
5.
Nick Chubb
RB - CLE (vs . CIN)
Based on the actual opportunity Chubb got in 2020, he should've finished as the RB24 in half PPR formats. Instead, Chubb scored 54.5 more fantasy points than the average running back would've and finished as the RB9 despite playing in just 12 games. The new offense proved to be very beneficial to the run game, though Kareem Hunt's presence does limit Chubb's true ceiling, which should be top-five, but unless he starts to get more targets, he'll remain in the mid-to-low-end RB1 range.
|
|
6.
Jonathan Taylor
RB - IND (at JAC)
When Marlon Mack went down with a season-ending injury in Week 1, everyone expected Taylor's breakout to come immediately. But it didn't. Instead, it was a frustratingly slow build, during which it felt like Taylor left rushing yards and fantasy points on the table every game. But if you held out long enough, you were rewarded with a dominant stretch, during which Taylor feasted on a six-game stretch of soft run defenses, enough to propel him to a finish as the RB6 on the season. With an upgrade in quarterback and running behind a strong offensive line once again, a healthy Taylor should amass fantasy points aplenty this year.
|
|
7.
Alvin Kamara
RB - NO (at ATL)
You won't find a bigger Kamara fan than me, and that's going back to his college days. However, with the way Sean Payton rotates his running backs, it's going to be mighty hard for Kamara to live up to his draft cost now that Drew Brees is gone. Brees targeted his running backs at least 28 percent of the time in each of the last four years. Meanwhile, Jameis Winston hasn't targeted running backs more than 18 percent of the time in each of his last four seasons as a starter. The offense is also not nearly as likely to be scoring as many points without Brees.
|
|
8.
Ezekiel Elliott
RB - DAL (at PHI)
Follow the production in the first round. There's just one player who's finished as a top-12 running back five times since 2015. That player is Elliott, and as crazy as it sounds, he wasn't even in the league in 2015. "But Mike, Elliott tanked last year to RB11." The entire team sank without Dak Prescott, but in the five games with him, Elliott was the No. 3 running back in fantasy. If he keeps falling until the end of the first round, there will be a lot of championship rosters from that area of drafts.
|
|
9.
Tyreek Hill
WR - KC (at DEN)
Hill was more of a streaky wide receiver early in his career who relied on big plays to get him into WR1 territory, though that seemingly ended in 2020 where he saw 10-plus targets in seven different games. Those numbers combined with his efficiency equals big things, and there's no reason to think they go away; Travis Kelce is going to be 32 years old, Sammy Watkins is gone, and they brought in no big-name wide receivers who are guaranteed much of anything. He's worthy of a first-round pick in fantasy drafts.
|
|
10.
Aaron Jones
RB - GB (at DET)
I do an article every year highlighting which players performed better than expected based on where their touches took place, as well as how many carries/targets they receive. Aaron Jones has finished No. 7, No. 4, No. 4, and No. 16 over the last four years on that list, which highlights just how good he is. During that time, he's scored 143.4 more fantasy points than the average running back would've. Him and Alvin Kamara are much more similar than most realize. You take proven production at the top of drafts, and Jones has proven it time-and-time again. If Aaron Rodgers doesn't ever show up to the Packers, he does lose a bit of his touchdown upside, though.
|
|
11.
Davante Adams
WR - GB (at DET)
If you're planning on taking a wide receiver in the first round, you'd better make sure he's going to perform without question. Adams is that player, as he's performed as a WR1 in 22 of his last 41 games (53.7 percent), which is historically good, and it's a three-year sample size. During that time, he's scored fewer than 11.1 PPR points just four times, and once was due to leaving with an injury. As long as Aaron Rodgers is with the Packers, Adams will be a can't-miss WR1.
|
|
12.
Cam Akers
RB - LAR (vs . SF)
The end to the 2020 season is weighing heavily on Akers' draft position, as we saw Sean McVay trust him with a workhorse role to end the year. Akers wasn't overly efficient with the massive touch totals he received (Darrell Henderson was actually more productive on a per-touch basis), but we can't ignore a running back who is projected to get 18-plus touches in Sean McVay's offense, which is likely to be better than ever with Matthew Stafford under center. There's always the chance McVay keeps this as a timeshare with both Akers and Henderson healthy, but Akers is the one who was trusted down the stretch, including the playoffs. There's top-five upside with Akers, but there's also a bit of risk given his small sample size of a big workload and potential timeshare.
|
|
13.
Stefon Diggs
WR - BUF (vs . NYJ)
How in the world do you go from one team to another, with no offseason to build chemistry, and then churn out 127 receptions for 1,535 yards and eight touchdowns? Diggs did that because he's uber talented, and he finally got the targets he deserves. The Vikings gave him 112 targets or less in four of the five seasons with them, hiding his true ceiling. He's now tied to Josh Allen, who's continually improved since coming into the league, on a pass-first offense where he's the featured star. There's no reason to think they don't pick up where they left off in 2020. Heck, even his three games in the playoffs against legit opponents netted 20 receptions for 311 yards and two touchdowns.
|
|
14.
Travis Kelce
TE - KC (at DEN)
We're getting close to the age where tight ends typically fall off with Kelce (32 in October) but he's shown no signs of slowing down, as he just broke the all-time record for yards in a season by a tight end. The Chiefs didn't really add anyone to the offense who should jeapordize his targets, and in fact, losing Sammy Watkins may only add to his appeal. Not only did he finish as the No. 1 tight end and give you a massive weekly advantage at an unpredictable position, but he would've finished as the No. 4 wide receiver. So, if drafting a tight end early scares you, just think of him like a wide receiver who you can play in your tight end slot. He's worth a late first-round pick.
|
|
15.
A.J. Brown
WR - TEN (at HOU)
Brown is a stud, plain and simple. He's defied the rule of regression and continues to blow the roof off normal projections. Based on the targets he saw last year and where on the field he saw them, he was supposed to finish as the No. 30 wide receiver. That's the opportunity he had. Well, he finished as the No. 12 wide receiver. The year before that, he was supposed to finish as the No. 49 wide receiver but finished No. 15 instead. The addition of Julio Jones will certainly limit his target ceiling, but based on what we've seen to this point, his efficiency should carry him to new heights in 2021.
|
|
16.
Calvin Ridley
WR - ATL (vs . NO)
Ridley finished as the No. 4 wide receiver with Julio Jones on the team, and that was while missing one full game. Just how much better can he be with Jones out of town? Some may worry about Ridley becoming "the guy" in the offense and seeing all the top cornerbacks, but we've already witnessed that in the games Jones missed. In the eight games Ridley has played without Jones, he's averaged 11.1 targets, 7.3 receptions, 107.0 yards, and 0.4 touchdowns, adding up to 20.1 PPR points per game. He should be a lock for 140-plus targets in 2021, making him a safe WR1.
|
|
17.
Joe Mixon
RB - CIN (at CLE)
Over the final nine games of 2019, Zac Taylor gave Mixon 214 touches (23.8 per game), which made us believe they'd finally realized he should be used in a workhorse fashion. The start of 2020 wasn't as generous, but he did average 19.7 touches per game over the first three weeks. Then we saw Giovani Bernard get knocked out of the lineup for a few weeks, and it led to Mixon totaling 27.0 touches per game over the next three weeks before getting hurt. Now that Bernard is gone, are we finally going to get a full season's worth of 20-plus touch games for Mixon? If so, top-five is in the realm of possibilities, especially knowing he'll be more involved in the passing game. Don't sleep on Mixon; he's still a top-10 running back talent-wise.
|
|
18.
D.K. Metcalf
WR - SEA (at ARI)
When Metcalf came into the NFL, he was considered a "raw" prospect who had plenty of room to grow as a route runner. He's not only lived up to expectations, but has started to exceed them, finishing as a WR2 or better in 50 percent of his games in 2020, which ranked 13th among wide receivers, so the consistency was much better in year two. Then you get his "boom" performances that carry him to the next level, which is why he finished as the WR7 in half-PPR formats. Tied to Russell Wilson as his No. 1 target, Metcalf is one of the safest bets as a top-12 wide receiver.
|
|
19.
DeAndre Hopkins
WR - ARI (vs . SEA)
When drafting a wide receiver in the first couple rounds, you can't afford to miss on them. Is there anyone more reliable than Hopkins? He's now seen at least 150 targets in six straight seasons and has finished as a top-five receiver in five of them. Sure, the Cardinals added A.J. Green and Rondale Moore, but that's not going to stop Kyler Murray from going to his favorite target.
|
|
20.
George Kittle
TE - SF (at LAR)
Since Kittle came into the NFL, he's produced TE1-type numbers in 58.5 percent of his games, which ranks third among all tight ends since 2000, ahead of guys like Tony Gonzalez and Jimmy Graham. He's in the prime of his career and now gets an upgrade at quarterback? He hasn't scored many touchdowns (never more than five), which has kept him out of the Travis Kelce territory. If he gets a bump in touchdowns with Trey Lance, we could see a Kelce-like finish in 2021 for Kittle. Health has proven to be an obstacle, but you shouldn't bet against Kittle finishing as a top-two tight end.
|
|
21.
Antonio Gibson
RB - WAS (at NYG)
I like Gibson, it's not that I don't. The issue is that he's not heavily involved in the passing game, and he topped 94 yards on the ground just twice all of last season, with both of those games coming against the Cowboys. In fact, 28.7 percent of his fantasy points in 2020 were against the Cowboys. I can certainly see Gibson finishing higher than my ranking, but those above him have either (a) a more consistent track record, or (b) less question marks. He scored a touchdown once every 15.5 carries last year, a number that's surely to go up.
|
|
22.
Justin Jefferson
WR - MIN (vs . CHI)
I'm not sure many realize just how difficult it would be for Jefferson to repeat his 2020 season. Not only was he a rookie, which is amazing in it's own right, but to finish with 1,400 yards on just 125 targets is ridiculous. How did that happen? Well, he caught 70.4 percent of his targets... at 15.9 yards a pop. No other wide receiver in the history of the game has totaled 1,400 yards on 125 or less targets. Bottom line... he needs more targets if he's going to live up to expectations because that's unlikely to happen again. With the defense getting back on track with Danielle Hunter (and adding in free agency), do the Vikings trend back to their run-heavy ways? Adam Thielen is a year older, but the chemistry between him and Kirk Cousins is magical. The sky is the limit for Jefferson with his talent, but will the targets follow? Don't forget this is the same team that held Stefon Diggs to 112 or less targets in 4-of-5 seasons.
|
|
23.
Patrick Mahomes II
QB - KC (at DEN)
We're now 46 games into Mahomes' career as a starter, and in those games he's totaled QB1-type numbers in 69.6 percent of them. There are just two other quarterbacks who've posted those over 59.5 percent of their career since 2000, and one was Justin Herbert who has just a 15-game sample size. When Mahomes is on the field, he's producing. The question is this: By drafting him in the early rounds, which running back or wide receiver are you passing on to get him, and is the dropoff more from the quarterback you'd get in the later rounds? If you wanted to draft Mahomes in the third round, you can, but know you're going to need to hit on a player or two later in your draft to make up the ground.
|
|
24.
Austin Ekeler
RB - LAC (at LV)
In eight full games with Justin Herbert under center last year, Ekeler saw 63 targets. Over a full 16-game season, that amounts to 126 targets. While I don't expect him to get there, he's one of just two running backs (Christian McCaffrey is the other) who I'm projecting for 100-plus targets in 2021. Targets are worth twice as much as carries, so even if Ekeler winds up getting just 12 carries per game, it's not the end of the world. In fact, he can still finish as a borderline RB1 if he were to hit just 200 carries on the season. The new coaching staff obviously brings on some potential volatility, but there's not much other talent on the roster at running back, so his role should be very safe.
|
|
25.
Darren Waller
TE - LV (vs . LAC)
I remember getting Waller in the fifth or sixth round last year, and though it never felt amazing while doing it, the end result worked out. Why didn't it feel amazing? He's part of the Raiders offense, that lacks potency. The targets were what we were chasing, and the targets are what we got. But when you're paying TE2 prices in the second round, you not only need the targets, you need touchdowns. While Waller scored nine of them last year, he scored just three of them in 2019 in the same offense. There's a reason people pay up for Travis Kelce, and while I like Waller, I just don't have that guaranteed Kelce-like production.
|
|
26.
J.K. Dobbins
RB - BAL (vs . PIT)
Dobbins is extremely talented, there's no doubting that. However, if you think he's a breakout candidate to finish as a top-five running back, you're betting against the odds. Among the running backs who finished top-10 last year, just two of them finished there while seeing fewer than 39 targets. Those two running backs were Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb, who averaged 5.4 and 5.6 yards per carry, numbers no one can actually project to hit. They also scored 17 and 12 touchdowns on the ground, propping their numbers up. Dobbins saw just 24 targets last year, a number that's unlikely to move much considering he's in the same offense with the same quarterback, only with more weapons around him. If Dobbins can rush for over 5.0 yards per carry (he did last year) and score double-digit rushing touchdowns (again, hard to project), he's going to finish as a top-10 running back, but not top-five due to the lack of work in the passing game. He's best-suited as your RB2 who has RB1 in his range of outcomes.
|
|
27.
Terry McLaurin
WR - WAS (at NYG)
Despite playing with a mixture of Dwayne Haskins, Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, and Taylor Heinicke the last two years, McLaurin has managed to produce 2,037 yards and 11 touchdowns. While that's not enough to get into the WR1 conversation, maybe the addition of Ryan Fitzpatrick is. We've watched Fitzpatrick support many fantasy wide receivers throughout his years, and he's been willing to target them relentlessly. It's part of the reason we loved DeVante Parker when Fitzpatrick was under center in Miami. There are suddenly a lot of mouths to feed in Washington, but McLaurin is the clear-cut No. 1 option who should be targeted 140-plus times in 2021 en route to what might be his first top-12 finish.
|
|
28.
Mike Evans
WR - TB (vs . CAR)
There may be no fantasy wide receiver who's continually undervalued more than Mike Evans. He's now turned in at least 1,000 yards in seven straight seasons with a handful of different quarterbacks, and has scored at least eight touchdowns in five of them. The reason he can't be considered in the elite tier is due to the number of mouths to feed in the Bucs offense. Think about it this way: Despite Chris Godwin being hurt for a while and Antonio Brown not joining the team until mid-season, Evans finished with just 109 targets. He's one of the better WR2's to have in fantasy, but he doesn't come with top-five upside unless there are injuries to those around him.
|
|
29.
Allen Robinson II
WR - CHI (at MIN)
Opportunity is everything, right? It's why despite Robinson's lackluster quarterback play, he's been able to finish as a top-12 receiver in back-to-back seasons. The upgrade to Andy Dalton was solid, but if the Bears play Justin Fields, it could be even better. Based on opportunity alone, Robinson should have finished as the WR4 in each of the last two seasons (that's based on how many targets he saw and where he saw them), so there's certainly room for improvement in his finish. Robinson has proven to be a WR1 with bad quarterback play in this same offense, making him one of the safer options as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2.
|
|
30.
Michael Thomas
WR - NO (at ATL)
It feels like too many people are dismissing Thomas this year, falling into borderline WR2 territory. Did everyone forget he was the consensus No. 1 wide receiver last year? Sure, Drew Brees is gone, but are we going to pretend that Brees' arm was as strong as it used to be? Now, the next question is whether Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill is under center. If it's Winston, Thomas should be locked-and-loaded as a WR1. If it's Hill, there should be a conversation, but don't forget what Thomas did in the four Hill games last year: 9/104/0, 4/50/0, 9/105/0, and 8/84/0. Those are rock-solid numbers, though the touchdowns were obviously not there. If you get Thomas in the third round of drafts this year, you should feel great about it, especially if Winston is the starter.
|
|
31.
Najee Harris
RB - PIT (at BAL)
Running backs are at their prime when they enter the NFL, which makes them the most valuable their rookie season, unlike quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends. Because of that, Harris, who takes over as the Steelers' lead back, is someone you want to have on your roster. The Steelers are a team that hasn't been shy about giving running backs 18-plus touches per game with Mike Tomlin at the helm. You don't draft a three-down back like Harris in the first round and put him in some timeshare. I wouldn't be surprised to see him average 20-plus touches per game, which puts him smack dab in the middle of the RB1 conversation.
|
|
32.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
RB - KC (at DEN)
Not many realize that Edwards-Helaire was the No. 11 running back through six weeks without Le'Veon Bell on the roster. Even better, he was the No. 11 running back while scoring just once during that time. In fact, had he scored one more touchdown, he would've been the No. 6 running back through six weeks. Once they traded for Bell, though, it ruined the stable touches he was getting. With Bell gone and no one significant brought in this offseason, Edwards-Helaire should return to his 18-plus touch role in the offense. The Chiefs have rebuilt their offensive line this year, which should help make life easier on Edwards-Helaire, who did average a solid 4.44 yards per carry his rookie season. Touchdowns are what were lacking, but don't bet on that again in what's likely to be the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL.
|
|
33.
Keenan Allen
WR - LAC (at LV)
Would you believe me if I told you that Keenan Allen failed to record 1,000 yards last season? It's true. Despite seeing 147 targets (5th in NFL), he finished with 992 yards (17th among wide receivers). The Chargers offense is surely going to change with Anthony Lynn out of the picture, so the hope should be that they'll utilize Allen down the field just a tad more to increase his numbers. The good news is that Justin Herbert clearly found his "go-to" receiver, targeting Allen 10-plus times on 10 separate occasions. He's an extremely safe WR2 based on volume alone, though it may be tough for him to get into the top-tier WR1 conversation seeing he's never scored more than eight touchdowns.
|
|
34.
Miles Sanders
RB - PHI (vs . DAL)
The start to Sanders' career hasnt been what we'd hoped for, delivering RB2 or better numbers in just 14-of-28 of games (50 percent). To be fair, he hasn't been used in a workhorse role, totaling more than 15 touches just 11 times over that span. Will the departure of Doug Pederson allow him to shine, or will Nick Sirianni implement a timeshare as well? The depth chart now consists of Sanders, Kerryon Johnson, and Kenneth Gainwell, so this could very well be a Colts-like backfield, which would make sense given that's where Sirianni comes from. Sanders should be treated as a timeshare RB2 who's more talented than most in that conversation.
|
|
35.
Julio Jones
WR - TEN (at HOU)
The public perception on Jones is that he's towards the end of his career, but that's simply not true. In fact, he averaged a career-high 11.3 yards per target during the 2020 season and was the WR13 in half-PPR points per game while ceding plenty of work to up-and-coming superstar Calvin Ridley. It'll be a similar situation in Tennessee, as Jones will now play alongside what might be the next generation's Julio Jones, and that's A.J. Brown. Similar to Atlanta, Jones and Brown are going to cap each other's truly elite ceiling, but as Jones and Ridley proved last year, it's certainly not out of the realm of possibilities that they're both top-12 wide receivers, especially when you factor in Ryan Tannehill's efficiency. Oh, and stop calling Jones injury prone - he's played at least 14 games in seven of the last nine seasons, and has totaled at least 1,394 yards in six of the last seven seasons. You don't do that if you're injury prone.
|
|
36.
David Montgomery
RB - CHI (at MIN)
Sure, Montgomery finished as the RB4 last year. There were many factors that led to that, particularly the injury to Tarik Cohen, freeing up tons of targets in the passing game. Over the course of Montgomery's short career, he's played 19 games with Cohen and 12 games without him. In the games with Cohen, he averaged 2.32 targets per game. In the 12 games without him, that number rose to 4.92 targets per game. Well, Cohen is back, and the team signed Damien Williams, who's a better receiving back than Montgomery. On top of Cohen missing, the Bears had a ridiculously easy schedule down the stretch, playing against the Packers twice, Lions, Texans, Vikings, and Jaguars to close out the season. Did you know that Montgomery was the RB20 after 10 weeks (prior to starting that schedule)? He's a fine low-end RB2, but don't go about your day thinking you're getting a steal in the fourth round or anything.
|
|
37.
Chris Carson
RB - SEA (at ARI)
Throughout Carson's career, he's produced RB2 or better numbers in 60 percent of his games. That's just a smidge behind Marshawn Lynch's number of 61.7 percent, which goes to show just how undervalued Carson has been to this point. Injuries have been a question, which should lower his ADP a bit, but when on the field, Carson is a borderline RB1 who the Seahawks signed to a fresh new deal this offseason.
|
|
38.
Chris Godwin
WR - TB (vs . CAR)
If there's one thing we can say about Godwin with Tom Brady under center, it's that he's a near lock for six-plus targets per game. He saw at least six targets in 10-of-12 games despite all the other talent on the roster, which is never a bad thing. The downside is that Godwin never really got into any sort of WR1 groove. He didn't hit the 100-yard mark until Week 17, when Mike Evans was essentially out of the lineup. To be fair, Godwin was playing through a few injuries last year, which may have hindered his upside, but we did watch Mike Evans' relationship with Brady grow as the year went on. On top of that, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski returned to game shape, which will certainly cap everyone's upside. Godwin should be a solid WR2 on a weekly basis, but it's tough seeing him approach top-12 territory without an injury to one of Evans or Brown.
|
|
39.
Amari Cooper
WR - DAL (at PHI)
Remember when Cooper was labeled as a "boom or bust" receiver during his Oakland days? While with the Cowboys, that hasn't been the case at all. He's now been a WR2 or better in 20-of-41 games with the Cowboys, which amounts to 48.8 percent. That number is the exact same as Stefon Diggs' career number. It's higher than Terry McLaurin's 48.3 percent. The emergence of CeeDee Lamb may take some of the upside potential away from Cooper, but he's still a great high-end WR2 to have on your fantasy team.
|
|
40.
CeeDee Lamb
WR - DAL (at PHI)
There's no telling how good Lamb would have been in his rookie season had Dak Prescott stayed healthy the entire year. With Prescott under center for the first five games, Lamb was the WR12 in half-PPR formats. Without Prescott, he was 32nd, and rarely explosive (topping out at 85 yards receiving, and only twice surpassing 65). With Prescott back and looking fully healthy, Lamb has a chance to excel as the Cowboys' slot receiver, especially if he can cut down a bit on the drops (eight total last season, tied for third-most in the league). Whether you draft him or Amari Cooper first, he should be an excellent WR2 with upside.
|
|
41.
Josh Jacobs
RB - LV (vs . LAC)
I remember last year when Jacobs was going as a late first-round pick, though I wanted nothing to do with him at that price due to his lack of involvement in the passing game the previous season. Nothing changed except they added more pass catchers. He did get a slight bump in targets (45), though nothing you could rely upon every week. What's changed this offseason? The Raiders decided to pay Kenyan Drake a good chunk of money to come in and share the workload with Jacobs, forcing his fantasy stock to plummet. Drake was essentially the same running back as Jacobs last year, though we've seen him produce in the passing game before. Did the addition of Drake drop Jacobs' price too far, or is this a backfield to simply avoid if possible? I believe he's fallen enough to consider a value as a low-end RB2 who should see be in line for 250-plus touches. The expectations were out of control last year, but if you can get him in the fifth round this year, I'm buying.
|
|
42.
D.J. Moore
WR - CAR (at TB)
There were just three receivers who finished with 93-plus yards in eight separate games last year. Calvin Ridley, Stefon Diggs, and... Moore. While the touchdowns were certainly lacking, there's something to be said about this stat and how undervalued Moore may be due to the lack of touchdowns. It was his first year in the offense, while Robby Anderson was brought in because he knew the offense. With Curtis Samuel out of town, we might see Moore in the slot far more often, which wouldn't be a bad thing. He's now finished with 1,175-plus yards in back-to-back seasons. It's only a matter of time before the touchdowns catch up. He's a solid WR2 to roster, who just might have top-12 upside if the touchdowns start to show up.
|
|
43.
Adam Thielen
WR - MIN (vs . CHI)
It seems the torch has been passed from Thielen to Justin Jefferson, though it's not as if Thielen will just fade into oblivion. It goes back to the Stefon Diggs days where he had to share that production. While Thielen did finish as the No. 8 wide receiver last year, it was thanks to his 14 touchdowns on just 74 receptions and 925 yards. No other receiver finished higher than No. 18 with fewer yards than Thielen. He's also going to be 31 years old at the start of the season and has a history of back issues, presenting a bit of risk, though he does have a ton of proven production with Kirk Cousins, which can't be ignored.
|
|
44.
D'Andre Swift
RB - DET (vs . GB)
There were certainly flashes of what could be a great three-down back with Swift last year, but the Lions seem to have alternate plans. They snagged Jamaal Williams in free agency and signed him to a two-year deal. Then, they drafted Jermar Jefferson. Then, they brought in Todd Gurley on a free agent visit. While they didn't sign him, it's not promising for Swift's outlook, as they clearly want this to be somewhat of a timeshare. It's not to say timeshare backs can't get into the top-12 conversation - they can, but it requires a lot of scoring opportunities, something we're not expecting from the Lions offense. Swift is an extremely talented football player, but situation and opportunity knock him into clear-cut RB2 territory.
|
|
45.
Josh Allen
QB - BUF (vs . NYJ)
All you can ask for out of an NFL quarterback is improvement. Allen has done that every single year, and it's translated to fantasy football as well. His percentage of QB1-type games by year: 41.7 - 43.8 - 56.3. He tallied 26-plus fantasy points in eight games last year, which tied for the most in the league. Even better is that he had just one game that was labeled a bust, which lets you know he's a set-it-and-forget-it quarterback who can be played, regardless of opponent. When spending a high-round pick on a quarterback, that's what you need. Allen can start to be considered around the fourth round.
|
|
46.
Robert Woods
WR - LAR (vs . SF)
It should be an interesting debate regarding Woods this year, because on the surface, it appears that he gets an upgrade to Matthew Stafford. While that's true, it can be argued that Jared Goff's skill-set was tailormade for Woods' skill-set. The 7.1 air yards per target Woods saw in 2020 was the 10th-lowest mark among wide receivers. Meanwhile, Stafford likes to push the ball down the field a bit more. Because of the questions (good or bad), Woods should ultimately be viewed as a mid-to-low-end WR2.
|
|
47.
Kenny Golladay
WR - NYG (vs . WAS)
Going to a new team is never easy, especially for someone who's coming from a team that was lacking any depth of pass catchers. It was easy for him to get eight-plus targets per game, especially when Marvin Jones was hurt. Now going to the Giants, who have a bevy of options, including Sterling Shepard, Kadarius Toney, Darius Slayton, Evan Engram, Kyle Rudolph, and Saquon Barkley. To be fair, you don't go out in free agency and sign someone like Golladay to give him five targets per game, but he's not going to get the consistent targets he got in Detroit, and the targets he does get aren't going to be as efficient.
|
|
48.
Mark Andrews
TE - BAL (vs . PIT)
It's kind of crazy how much Andrews gets disrespected by the fantasy community. He's tallied 2,105 yards and 20 touchdowns over his first three seasons in the league. That's the ninth-most yardage by a tight end in the post-merger era during his first three seasons. You know what other tight ends are on that list? George Kittle, Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, and Kellen Winslow. Sure, the Ravens went out and added some pass catchers, but Andrews is the go-to option for Lamar Jackson over the middle of the field and in the red zone. Health has been the biggest obstacle for Andrews, but if he's able to stay on the field, he should be the No. 4 tight end off the board.
|
|
49.
Kyler Murray
QB - ARI (vs . SEA)
Murray was extremely good to fantasy managers last year, delivering QB1-type performances 68.8 percent of the time, which was the third-best mark in the league. He wasn't just barely hitting those numbers, either, as he tallied 26-plus fantasy points on eight separate occasions, tied for the most in the league. The Cardinals added A.J. Green and Rondale Moore, while losing Kenyan Drake. This suggests there's going to be more dropbacks, which in turn means more fantasy points. Murray is an every-week starter and worthy of a top-five quarterback selection in the 4th/5th round.
|
|
50.
Lamar Jackson
QB - BAL (vs . PIT)
Do you know how many times Jackson has finished with fewer than 16.5 fantasy points since taking the starting job in 2019? Four. He's posted 21.3 or more fantasy points in 22-of-30 games during that stretch, which is flat-out ridiculous. On top of that, he's now got better weapons to throw to, yet some are ranking him as the fourth-best quarterback in fantasy? Not me. Jackson should be in the conversation to be the first quarterback off the board.
|
|
51.
Brandon Aiyuk
WR - SF (at LAR)
Aiyuk is a tough one to crack, as he exploded onto the fantasy scene last year, finishing with 583 yards and four touchdowns over his final seven games, but there were factors that helped him achieve those numbers. The major ones being the injuries to George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. There were just four games where the trio were on the field together, and during that time, Aiyuk saw just 21 targets (the lowest of the three) and had 13/189/1 combined in those games. To be fair, it was from Week 4-7, so it was very early in Aiyuk's rookie season, so it's possible he just hadn't earned the trust yet. There's a wide range of outcomes in his projections, going as high as a top-15 wide receiver, but also as low as a wide receiver in the WR30-36 range. You want equity when drafting, so taking Aiyuk as anything more than a WR3 when Kittle and Samuel are healthy is risky.
|
|
52.
T.J. Hockenson
TE - DET (vs . GB)
We can talk about all the good things that Hockenson did last year, but it wouldn't matter. His world has been flipped upside down in 2021, as he has a new coaching staff, and more importantly, a new quarterback. The team isn't going to be in scoring position nearly as much, but the good news for Hockenson is that he's now the clear-cut No. 1 target on the team after we watched Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones leave in free agency. Jared Goff has limitations as a quarterback, but his skill-set should actually align with Hockenson's role quite well. It may not be exciting to start Hockenson week-to-week for upside purposes, but he should deliver a rock-solid floor that allows you to start him every week.
|
|
53.
Odell Beckham Jr.
WR - CLE (vs . CIN)
Here were my points against Beckham last year as a top 15-WR: he had finished as the WR83, WR16, and WR26 in the previous three seasons, the Vikings ran the ball 48% of the time under Kevin Stefanski (fourth most in the NFL) and so he'd never approach his customary 10 targets per game, and he's an injury risk. Well, the Browns ran the ball 48% of the time last year (fourth most in the NFL), Beckham received seven targets per game, and he lost much of the season due to injury. All the concerns over Beckham hold true this year except for his price, which is now as the 25th WR in half-PPR ADP. Beckham will certainly have some boom games and the Browns' offense should improve this year in Stefanski's second year, but the lack of target volume is going to put a ceiling on Beckham's value. Fantasy managers are drafting him as a borderline WR2 - that's exactly what he is.
|
|
54.
Dak Prescott
QB - DAL (at PHI)
Here's a fun fact: Prescott's 27.0 fantasy points per game in 2020 was the second-most all-time. What makes that stat even crazier is that his 4.05 percent touchdown rate was below the league average of 4.80 percent, so there was room for more. Of the top eight single-game performances by quarterbacks in 2020, there was only one quarterback on that list twice: Prescott, and he only played four full games. With the receiving weapons he has available, the sky is the limit, though his ankle injury could hamper his rushing upside in 2021. He's certainly someone who's going to throw for a lot of yards and touchdowns, but you need the rushing upside to get into the top-three conversation, so his risk bumps him out of that conversation.
|
|
55.
Kareem Hunt
RB - CLE (vs . CIN)
Despite Nick Chubb getting hurt and missing 4.5 games, Hunt failed to meet expectations in 2020. Sure, he finished as a top-10 running back at season's end, but if you were to ask his managers, they'd tell you he was a flex-type option. He finished as an RB2 or better in just 56.3 percent of games in PPR formats, which was slightly behind Miles Sanders and slightly ahead of Ronald Jones. His value was arguably better with Chubb on the field last year, so maybe it's a matter of keeping him fresh? Whatever the case, Hunt should be a strong RB3/flex option who has 20-touch upside should Chubb miss time.
|
|
56.
Cooper Kupp
WR - LAR (vs . SF)
It seemed like the Rams wanted to stretch the middle of the field with Kupp at times over the last couple years, though Jared Goff's inability to accurately throw the ball downfield hindered Kupp's upside. Of the eight deep targets he saw in 2020, just one was catchable. Kupp's not a burner by any means, but if he doesn't have splash plays, he's not going to be anything more than a boring PPR asset. There's more to his game than what we've seen, and it's possible that Matthew Stafford unlocks it. He should be treated as a safe, high-floor WR2.
|
|
57.
Tyler Lockett
WR - SEA (at ARI)
Sure, Lockett finished as the No. 9 fantasy wide receiver last year, but ask anyone who rostered him if he was a WR1. Heck, as them if he was a reliable WR2. The answer would be no, as he finished with WR2 or better numbers just 37.5 percent of the time which was behind players like Diontae Johnson, Curtis Samuel, John Brown, and Jamison Crowder. How's that possible? Because 48.7 percent of his production last year came from just three games. He's going to have massive games, but relying on him as anything more than a volatile WR3 is going to lead to disappointment.
|
|
58.
Myles Gaskin
RB - MIA (vs . NE)
It was shocking to see the Dolphins pass on running back after running back, especially considering all the picks they had in this year's draft. This is great news for Gaskin, who racked up 183 touches in just 10 games last year. Crazy, right? His 18.3 touches per game ranked ninth among running backs. Opportunity is everything, and if he gets that type of opportunity again in 2021 while playing in all the games, he's going to finish as a top-15 running back. The only difference is that the Dolphins added Malcolm Brown in free agency, which could lead to him siphoning some targets away from Gaskin, which would be less than ideal. As of now, Gaskin should probably be considered a solid RB2, though landing him as your RB3/flex would be even better based on the small sample size we have from him in a big role.
|
|
59.
Tee Higgins
WR - CIN (at CLE)
Higgins joined the starting lineup in Week 3 and played with Joe Burrow through Week 10 in seven full games. He was the WR11 during that time, so a WR1 despite A.J. Green getting tons of work and Tyler Boyd being a big presence. It was a phenomenal start to Higgins' career, and while I loved him as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 this year, the pick of Ja'Marr Chase at No. 5 overall derailed that excitement. Chase is going to walk in and demand a large chunk of targets right away, as Burrow told the front office that he wanted Chase over Penei Sewell, the stud left tackle. This doesn't mean Higgins is going to go away - he won't. However, it does limit his target ceiling and lowers expectations. He should be valued as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3 with Chase in the picture.
|
|
60.
Courtland Sutton
WR - DEN (vs . KC)
It seems like it's been forever since we've seen Sutton on a football field, right? Part of that is due to 2020 seeming like the longest year of all-time. But when he does return to the field, the Broncos offense looks quite different than the one that allowed him to rack up 1,112 yards and six touchdowns in 2019. The additions of Jerry Jeudy, KJ Hamler, Melvin Gordon, and Javonte Williams are all massive, as is the emergence of Tim Patrick. Suddenly, it's going to be tough for any receiver on this team to hit 120 targets. But what Sutton has going for him is that he's already shown that he can perform at a high level in the NFL. While I believe Jeudy can as well, we haven't seen that just yet, which gives Sutton the nod in the rankings as a WR3.
|
|
61.
Chase Claypool
WR - PIT (at BAL)
Claypool may have finished as the WR19 on the season, but his year was littered with lackluster performances. He posted WR3 or better type numbers in just 50 percent of the games last year, which was tied with Jamison Crowder and DeVante Parker for 34th among wide receivers. His four-touchdown game in Week 5 really catapulted his numbers at season's end, as he failed to top 59 yards in 11-of-16 games, making him a touchdown-or-bust option most weeks. With Ben Roethlisberger's arm strength seemingly deteriorating by the day, it's tough to see Claypool having a true breakout season in 2021, as he relies on those high value targets more than JuJu Smith-Schuster and Diontae Johnson do. Claypool is an upside pick for sure, but not one I'd bet heavily on.
|
|
62.
D.J. Chark Jr.
WR - JAC (vs . IND)
There are many trying to figure out the target share for Laviska Shenault, Marvin Jones, and Travis Etienne, but the one who's the clear-cut No. 1 option on this team is Chark. If Trevor Lawrence turns out to be the real deal, Chark can be the 2021 version of Tee Higgins when he was with Joe Burrow (was the No. 11 wide receiver in eight full games with Burrow). Chark already flashed WR1 potential in 2019 when he racked up 73 receptions for 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns with the combination of Gardner Minshew and Nick Foles, so why can't he be more with Lawrence? The coaching staff is a big question mark, but you don't draft Lawrence to run the ball 40 times per game. Chark comes with some risk but even more upside.
|
|
63.
Diontae Johnson
WR - PIT (at BAL)
Despite missing one full game and a large portion of another, Johnson finished with 144 targets in 2020, which ranked sixth among wide receivers. Unfortunately, he was not particularly efficient with them, averaging just 6.4 yards per target. Part of his issues were drops, but Ben Roethlisberger's drop-down mentality certainly didn't help, either. Still, chasing targets at wide receiver is never a bad thing. If Johnson would've averaged just 7.4 yards per target (easily attainable), he would've finished as the WR14. He should be a safe high-floor WR2 with upside for top-12 numbers.
|
|
64.
Russell Wilson
QB - SEA (at ARI)
Why is Wilson continually hated by the fantasy community? His late-season struggles last year have many avoiding him in 2021, though you shouldn't be one of those people. Over the course of his career (now 144 games), he's posted top-12 type numbers in 50.7 percent of his games, which ranks sixth among quarterbacks who've started 50-plus games since 2000. That's a better career mark than Drew Brees, who was continually drafted as a top-three quarterback during his prime. Wilson has never finished worse than QB11 and has finished as a top-three quarterback in four of the last seven seasons. He's as stable as they come.
|
|
65.
Raheem Mostert
RB - SF (at LAR)
There's no denying it... when Mostert is healthy and on the field, he's a beast. He's turned 282 career carries into 1,590 yards and 11 touchdowns. But that's the issue, he's never healthy. There's a reason he's 29 years old and has just 282 carries on his frame. Have the 49ers lost patience? They traded up to draft Trey Sermon in the third round, which could indicate they're ready to move on from Mostert, or it could be them ensuring they have a high-quality backup for if/when he gets injured. Mostert tallied at least 14 carries in 5-of-8 starts last year, which is more than enough to get into RB2 territory with his efficiency, but you can't draft him as such when injuries/Sermon are factored in. He's not someone you can confidently draft as a starter for your fantasy team because there's so much unknown. However, if he gets the job back, this is a pick that can make a difference in fantasy leagues. The 49ers have one of the easiest schedules in the league, so if they let Mostert get rolling, he's unlikely to slow down.
|
|
66.
Melvin Gordon III
RB - DEN (vs . KC)
When the Broncos signed Gordon to a two-year, $16 million contract, you had to assume they were going to use him in a big role. That's not quite what happened, as they continually wanted to involve Phillip Lindsay. After letting him walk in free agency, they snagged Mike Boone, which was a downgrade from Lindsay. Okay... but that wasn't it. They drafted Javonte Williams at the top of the second round, a running back who'll certainly compete for touches immediately. Gordon isn't going to simply go away making the money he is, but he's also not likely going to get the 16.5 touches per game he was in 2020. There's also a possible suspension coming Gordon's way for a DUI incident last year, which needs to be factored into his fantasy stock. He's not someone you should be relying on for anything more than RB3/flex production.
|
|
67.
Aaron Rodgers
QB - GB (at DET)
Don't go out of your way to snag him in early drafts. Even if Rodgers does play for the Packers, his touchdown rate was 9.1 in 2020. If we dial that number back to Rodgers' career mark of 6.3 percent, which is still elite, he would've finished as the QB10 instead of the QB2 that he did. He doesn't offer mobility anymore and his offense isn't what we'd describe as "pass heavy." Even if we knew he was playing this year, QB8 should be the price.
|
|
68.
Justin Herbert
QB - LAC (at LV)
What Herbert did in 2020 was miraculous. There's no two ways about it. To be handed the starting job just one hour before the game in Week 2, then go on to break the rookie record for passing touchdowns (31) is ridiculous. Now, with that being said, he still finished as the QB9 last year while throwing 595 pass attempts, the fourth most in the legaue. Now that he's got a defensive-minded head coach and a healthy defense, we could see the pass attempts dip a bit in 2021, which would certainly hurt his appeal. The Chargers did increase the talent on the offensive line, but also replaced Hunter Henry with Jared Cook, which is a certainly a downgrade. Herbert should still be a solid low-end QB1, but it's tough to see him finishing as a top-five option in 2021.
|
|
69.
Ja'Marr Chase
WR - CIN (at CLE)
If you follow college football and/or the NFL Draft, you know that Chase was a superior prospect to Tee Higgins. What we saw Higgins do as a rookie with Joe Burrow was impressive, as he was the WR11 during the eight full games they played together. Keep in mind that was with zero chemistry. Now you insert Chase into the offense, who already has chemistry with Burrow, as they set records at LSU together, and what do we get? I'll acknowledge that Higgins is going to cap Chase's ceiling and that he may not get to top-12 production, but you don't draft Chase at No. 5 overall (over an elite offensive tackle) if you're not going to highlight him in the offense immediately. Heck, even A.J. Green, who averaged 5.0 yards per target, saw 104 targets in this offense last year. Chase should be a WR2 right out of the gate.
|
|
70.
Damien Harris
RB - NE (at MIA)
What's the best-case scenario for Harris? Didn't we see it last year when Sony Michel went down with an injury? Not only is Michel healthy, but the Patriots also decided to draft Rhamondre Stevenson in the fourth round of this year's draft, which just adds another body to the mix. I like Harris as a player, but as someone who topped 16 touches just twice last year with little competition and no role in the passing game, you should aim higher for your RB2/3 option.
|
|
71.
Brandin Cooks
WR - HOU (vs . TEN)
Over the last six years, there have been just seven wide receivers who've finished top-24 in at least five of them. Those receivers are Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper, Jarvis Landry, and... Cooks. He's done it with four different quarterbacks, too. However, 2021 might be his toughest test yet, as it appears Tyrod Taylor will be his quarterback, and this is projected to be the lowest scoring offense in the league. Still, he's the clear-cut top option on this team and should be a lock to see 100-plus targets as long as he's healthy.
|
|
72.
Mike Davis
RB - ATL (vs . NO)
My guess is that analysts are worried about the Falcons adding a free agent running back because even my RB24 ranking feels a bit low for a back who should have no issue getting 15-plus touches per game. That would amount to 240-plus touches on the season. There have been 144 running backs who've hit that mark over the last 10 years and none have finished worse than RB28 (his current ECR). In fact, just 10 of those running backs (6.9 percent) have finished worse than RB20. If the Falcons don't add anyone of significance, I'll be moving him up even more.
|
|
73.
Deebo Samuel
WR - SF (at LAR)
Samuel's average depth of target of 2.2 yards wasn't just the lowest among wide receivers, it was so comically low that it's difficult to believe it's not a typo. To be fair, it's hard to criticize anything Samuel did last year, given that he was limited to seven games because of a Jones fracture in his foot and a hamstring injury. But still, the fact that he was targeted closer to the line than most running backs isn't a great sign for his long-term value. Worse still is that between George Kittle's dominance, Brandon Aiyuk's emergence, and a quarterback position in flux, it's difficult to see a scenario where Samuel turns into a safe fantasy option. There will be weeks where Samuel will probably be worth starting, but if you draft him as anything but a bench option then you're taking unnecessary risk.
|
|
74.
Kyle Pitts
TE - ATL (vs . NO)
No one can or should doubt Pitts' talent or ability to succeed in the NFL long-term. He's one of the most physically gifted tight ends to ever come out of the draft, and in a few years, he's likely going to be the top pick in fantasy at the position. Given the historically poor performance of rookie tight ends in fantasy, there would ordinarily be reason to fade Pitts just a bit in redraft leagues. But Atlanta's trade of Julio Jones opens up too many targets for fantasy managers to let him slip far. Draft him as a top-5 tight end. and hope (and expect) that he bucks the trend for rookies at his position.
|
|
75.
Ronald Jones II
RB - TB (vs . CAR)
I know Leonard Fournette had a strong finish to the season while Jones was hurt, but we mustn't forget that Jones averaged 5.14 yards per carry and nearly hit 1,000 rushing yards despite finishing with just 192 carries. There are just eight running backs in the post-merger era who've finished with as many yards as Jones did with 192 or less carries. He's not going to be heavily utilized in the passing game, which severely caps his upside, but Jones is the Bucs best ball carrier.
|
|
76.
Dallas Goedert
TE - PHI (vs . DAL)
Despite Zach Ertz on the roster and stealing tons of targets, Goedert has managed to rack up 1,131 yards and eight touchdowns over his last 26 games. Had Goedert played all 16 games in 2020, his pace would've been 762 yards and four touchdowns, which would've been good enough to finish as a top-10 tight end (again, with Ertz around). It seems like a foregone conclusion that Ertz will be off the team soon, which clears a path for Goedert to be among the league leaders in targets for a tight end. It's a new offense, but Nick Sirianni comes from the Frank Reich tree, which has a history of producing tight end production. Goedert may not be a can't-miss tight end, but if there's someone who has top-five upside without being drafted there, it's him.
|
|
77.
Travis Etienne
RB - JAC (vs . IND)
When a team drafts a running back in the first round, history suggests they're going to use him a ton. In fact, there's been just one running back drafted in the first round over the last eight years who hasn't touched the ball at least 197 times, and that was Rashaad Penny, who's continually injured (it was also a shock to hear his name in the first round). Etienne was a favorite of many in this draft class, and is now tied to an offense that has Trevor Lawrence at the helm rather than Gardner Minshew/Mike Glennon. The Jaguars have also been using him as a wide receiver in camp, which is never a bad thing. In PPR formats, targets are worth 2.5 times as much as carries. He'll share some work with James Robinson, but make no mistake about it, Etienne is the lead back with the most talent.
|
|
78.
Chase Edmonds
RB - ARI (vs . SEA)
Have we seen Edmonds carry the workload for the Cardinals before? Well, kind of. Despite Kenyan Drake struggling through much of 2020, there were just two games where Edmonds finished with more than eight carries, which is certainly a concern. The Cardinals went out and signed James Conner in free agency, but he's proven to be incapable of staying healthy with a full workload, and it wasn't a pricey contract, so maybe we see Edmonds in a bigger role. Whatever the case, we know he has the pass-catching role locked down, which has value in itself, as he was a flex-type option most weeks (he was an RB3 or better 62.5 percent of the time). This offense is going to score points, so if Edmonds were to get a slight bump in carries, he could make his way into the RB2 conversation. Draft him as an RB3/flex and hope that's the case. Just know that he's still yet to crack 100 carries in a season.
|
|
79.
James Robinson
RB - JAC (vs . IND)
While Robinson was on the field last year, the Jaguars running backs combined for 332 touches. Robinson accounted for 289 of them, or 87.0 percent, a number that doesn't really exist in today's NFL. He averaged 4.46 yards per carry, 5.73 yards per target, and scored 10 total touchdowns, which is solid, though nothing special. Enter Urban Meyer, who said they wanted to add depth/competition at the running back position. After adding Carlos Hyde, you knew Robinson would lose some touches, but it wasn't that much of a concern. After drafting Travis Etienne in the first round, it's definitely a concern. Robinson would be lucky to earn a 50/40/10 split with Etienne and Hyde, with Robinson being the 40 of the group. If we knock Robinson's touches into the 10-12 per game territory, you're not going to be trusting him as anything more than a shaky flex option.
|
|
80.
Will Fuller V
WR - MIA (vs . NE)
Not only will Fuller finish up his suspension and miss Week 1 this year, but he'll also be returning to the field with a new quarterback, and let's just say that life without Deshaun Watson hasn't been kind to him. In 20 games with non-Watson quarterbacks, Fuller has averaged 6.0 targets, 3.1 receptions, 38.7 yards, and 0.10 touchdowns, which is a far cry from his 6.5 targets, 4.5 receptions, 70.6 yards, and 0.67 touchdowns per game with Watson under center. Can Tua Tagovailoa take a step forward in his career in 2021? Sure, but he's not going to be Watson, and there are suddenly tons of options for him to throw to, which means Fuller is going to have to fight for his target share. There's more risk than you'd like with Fuller, who's also had his fair share of injuries throughout his career. Getting him as a WR4 would be ideal, as you aren't relying on him for production week-in and week-out.
|
|
81.
Jerry Jeudy
WR - DEN (vs . KC)
|
|
82.
Robby Anderson
WR - CAR (at TB)
It's odd to say, but Anderson was somewhat of a Jarvis Landry-type fantasy asset last year. He finished with more than 15.5 half PPR points just twice, but he also scored fewer than 8.0 half PPR points just four times, offering a level of consistency we hadn't seen out of him. It's because they used him in the possession-style role with a shorter average depth of target than he was getting with the Jets. The Panthers lost Curtis Samuel in free agency, but gained Terrace Marshall in the draft, and will get Christian McCaffrey back from injury, so the loss of Samuel doesn't do a whole lot for projections. D.J. Moore started coming on more as the year went on, though the switch to Sam Darnold could prove to be a good thing for Anderson, who was Darnold's teammate with the Jets. It's still the same offense, and Anderson proved he's able to contribute in a big way, making him somewhat of a safe WR3/4 option with WR2 upside should Darnold favor him as the top option.
|
|
83.
Curtis Samuel
WR - WAS (at NYG)
|
|
84.
Noah Fant
TE - DEN (vs . KC)
Despite being an freakish athlete, Fant was an incredibly boring fantasy asset to roster in 2020, finishing with 35-57 yards in 9-of-15 games, while failing to top 81 yards in any one game. The issue stems from his quarterback, as the targets are simply not that valuable, because 93 of them (what Fant saw) is more than enough to be a reliable fantasy asset. Unfortunately, we don't know if Drew Lock will still be the quarterback, and the Broncos have Courtland Sutton returning to the lineup, which will surely cut into Fant's target share. On top of that, the team seemed to like using both Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam prior to Okwuegbunam's injury last year, which is another ding on Fant's fantasy stock. He's fine, but unless there's a change at quarterback, he's nothing you can't live without.
|
|
85.
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR - PIT (at BAL)
Though it was better than his 2019 season, there were plenty of ups and downs from Smith-Schuster in 2020. Part of the reason for inconsistency is due to Ben Roethlisberger's volatile performance, but even if he rights the ship in 2021, the bigger part of the problem for Smith-Schuster is the competition he has for targets. Chase Claypool will be entering his sophomore season, Diontae Johnson seemed to figure out his drops as the year went on, and they added Najee Harris and Pat Freiermuth in the first two rounds of the draft. Suddenly, Smith-Schuster might be third in line for targets in this offense. He'll probably finish as a WR3, but I just don't see the upside to drafting him as anything more than a low-end WR3.
|
|
86.
Robert Tonyan
TE - GB (at DET)
Despite having fewer than half the targets, receptions, and yards of Travis Kelce, Tonyan tied Kelce for the most touchdowns by a tight end in 2020 with 11, and he was second among tight ends in yards per target. Despite his nose for the end zone, though, he had only 11 red zone targets (just the 19th-most among tight ends), so his production near the goal-line almost certainly isn't repeatable absent a change in usage. And, of course, there's the whole "will Aaron Rodgers return" cloud hanging over the entire Packers franchise. Assuming Rodgers does return, Tonyan should be viewed as a borderline top-10 option. Even with some natural touchdown regression, he should still have plenty of value playing with one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, particularly with the lack of many other established options in the passing game.
|
|
87.
Tom Brady
QB - TB (vs . CAR)
To think that Brady would join a new team at 43 years old, have zero offseason, then proceed to throw for 4,633 yards and 40 touchdowns is mindblowing. He's going to be 44 years old when the season starts, which brings us back to the conversation, "When does he fall off?" I'm done trying to predict that, but it must be factored into his price in fantasy drafts. Was last year a best-case scenario? He finished as the QB8 even with those numbers, as mobility is almost neccesary to finish higher in today's game. Because of that, Brady shouldn't be drafted as anything more than a low-end QB1 with a limited ceiling.
|
|
88.
Javonte Williams
RB - DEN (vs . KC)
There are many trying to appoint Williams as the top back in the Broncos offense, but don't go there just yet. Melvin Gordon has one year left on his deal, and it's the same coaching staff that brought him in on a two-year deal worth $16 million. It's likely they continue using Gordon in a timeshare with Williams in the Phillip Lindsay role, which netted 8-16 touches when Gordon was in the lineup. That does give him flex appeal, and if anything were to happen to Gordon, Williams could be a league winner. Treat him as a high-end handcuff, and anything else he gives you is a bonus.
|
|
89.
Tyler Boyd
WR - CIN (at CLE)
Since Zac Taylor took over as the head coach, Boyd has played a big role in the offense, though it diminished a tad last year once we saw Tee Higgins carve out a bigger role. Still, he saw 110 targets and finished as the WR35 in half PPR formats. Onto the next obstacle. Ja'Marr Chase is going to be a real thorn in Boyd's side when it comes to volume, as he'll demand more than A.J. Green received last year. All three of the Bengals receivers saw 100-plus targets last year, so it's not like Boyd is going to simply fade away, but he's lost a ton of his upside as the No. 3 option.
|
|
90.
Jarvis Landry
WR - CLE (vs . CIN)
Here's a fun fact: Landry is one of just seven wide receivers who've finished as a top-24 fantasy wide receiver in five of the last six years. The others are Julio Jones, Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, Brandin Cooks, and Amari Cooper. However, the issue is that Landry isn't the "sexy" pick that everyone wants because he's never going to be the reason you win a championship. With Odell Beckham due back to the lineup, it's only going to cap his upside even more, and therefore supress his ADP. You need balance on your fantasy roster and Landry can provide stability that not many have. Just keep your weekly expectations in check.
|
|
91.
Jalen Hurts
QB - PHI (vs . DAL)
|
|
92.
David Johnson
RB - HOU (vs . TEN)
I think most people would admit that Johnson looked much better than expected in 2020, totaling over 1,000 total yards and eight touchdowns in just 12 games. That's the good news. The bad news is that the Texans are a team that legitimately might lose every game in 2021, as they've been stripped down and look like a roster of replacements. They've also added Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, and Rex Burkhead to the backfield, which presents all sorts of issues. If Deshaun Watson were going to play, we'd dig into this backfield a little deeper, but with Watson out of the picture for the foreseeable future, this is not a backfield you want to be associated with.
|
|
93.
DeVonta Smith
WR - PHI (vs . DAL)
|
|
94.
Ryan Tannehill
QB - TEN (at HOU)
Tannehill has been disrespected by the fantasy community long before Julio Jones was traded there. Tannehill became the starter of the Titans in Week 7 of 2019. Since that time, he's tallied 575.3 fantasy points, which ranks third among quarterbacks, behind only Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. That's right... despite ranking 16th in pass attempts during that time (26-game sample size), he's finished with more fantasy points than Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, and Deshaun Watson.
|
|
95.
Marquise Brown
WR - BAL (vs . PIT)
|
|
96.
Zack Moss
RB - BUF (vs . NYJ)
I really liked Moss coming out of college, but being injury prone was a label he needed to shake. Unfortunately, he suffered an injury early in the season and was never able to wrestle the starting gig away from Devin Singletary. He did finish with at least 12 carries in three of the last four games, which leaves room for hope, but he also saw just three targets in those four games combined, which makes him extremely touchdown-dependent. When Josh Allen is the primary goal-line back, that presents an issue. Without an injury to Singletary, it's tough to see Moss being anything more than a touchdown-dependent RB3/4 option.
|
|
97.
James Conner
RB - ARI (vs . SEA)
It's never a good thing for a running back to go from a workhorse role into a timeshare, but in Conner's case, it might be for the best. While operating as Le'Veon Bell's backup, Conner had pep in his step and performed like an RB1 when given the opportunity. But once he took over as the team's No. 1 running back, injuries continually piled up, letting his body know he wasn't capable of being that guy. Many are assuming that Chase Edmonds is the No. 1 running back in this offense, and while I believe that's the case, there's a non-zero percent chance that Conner takes over the Kenyan Drake role from last season that netted 239 carries and 31 targets. There's a reason the Cardinals signed him in free agency, so he will have a role, but the question is "how big?" He might be worth a late-round pick just in case he does get the Drake role (or even 80 percent of it).
|
|
98.
Leonard Fournette
RB - TB (vs . CAR)
It's easy to recall the good times Fournette had in the playoffs and use that as a reason to move him up draft boards, but don't let a couple games spoil what was a very mediocre season. He finished with more than 52 rushing yards just once all year, and that came in Week 2 against the Panthers. Fournette's primary source of fantasy points in 2020 was via the passing game, as he saw 47 targets in 13 games. Unfortunately, the Bucs added Gio Bernard, who's a much better receiver out of the backfield. Knowing that Bernard is the more reliable third-down option and that Ronald Jones is probably the better two-down option, that leaves Fournette in no man's land. He's not someone you're going to want to start every week.
|
|
99.
Logan Thomas
TE - WAS (at NYG)
Thomas's skills were evident all season long, but he didn't become a particularly fantasy-relevant tight end until Week 12. From that point on, he averaged nine targets, seven receptions, 60 yards receiving, and half a touchdown per game. Over the course of a full season, that would have made him the third-best tight end in fantasy in half-PPR leagues behind only Travis Kelce. With Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, Washington should only become more pass-happy, which should portend good things for Thomas, especially if he continues his success in the red zone (his 16 receptions ranked second in the NFL among tight ends in 2020). Draft Thomas as a set-it-and-forget it option at a thin position.
|
|
100.
Matthew Stafford
QB - LAR (vs . SF)
|
|
101.
Joe Burrow
QB - CIN (at CLE)
|
|
102.
DeVante Parker
WR - MIA (vs . NE)
This is funny because I was always the guy saying that Parker was undervalued, and he was, but we've reached the point where I'm abandoning that ship. Last year, he played in eight games with Tua Tagovailoa, and in those games, he averaged 7.1 targets, 3.6 receptions, 43.1 yards, and 0.25 touchdowns. That's... not great. And now you add Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle to the offense? Parker is the "big body" wide receiver of the bunch, but he's never been a touchdown scorer, finishing with more than four touchdowns just once in his six-year career. His ADP is way too high.
|
|
103.
Michael Gallup
WR - DAL (at PHI)
Despite losing Dak Prescott early in the year, Gallup managed to finish with 843 yards and five touchdowns despite being behind both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb on the depth chart. That was good enough for a WR38 finish, though he's lasting much later than that in drafts. Now in a contract year, Gallup is likely showcasing himself for his future team.
|
|
104.
Mike Gesicki
TE - MIA (vs . NE)
Part of the reason we liked Gesicki last year was due to the lack of verified options in the Dolphins passing attack. That's changed as we head into 2021, as the Dolphins have added Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle to the arsenal. Despite the lack of options last year, Gesicki saw just 85 targets. There is a new offensive coordinator, which can certainly shake things up, but the additions of Fuller and Waddle reduce the need for Gesicki's athleticism, and he's not a possession-style tight end. His upside is capped, and his floor might be in jeopardy, too.
|
|
105.
AJ Dillon
RB - GB (at DET)
We've watched Jamaal Williams get 226 carries and 80 targets in 28 games under Matt LaFleur, and he wasn't someone this regime drafted in the second round. That amounts to 10.9 touches per game, which is enough for most running backs to be considered a flex-type start. The issue with Dillon is that he's not likely going to be involved in the passing game, as Aaron Jones is a far superior receiver, and the Packers do throw quite a bit on the goal-line when Aaron Rodgers is under center. Dillon is essentially someone who's a touchdown-dependent flex option most weeks, but offers legitimate RB1 upside if Jones were to miss any time.
|
|
106.
Kenyan Drake
RB - LV (vs . LAC)
The marriage between the Raiders and Drake is an odd one, as Drake was somewhat of a Josh Jacobs doppleganger last year. They both finished between 3.9 and 4.0 yards per carry, both scored double-digit rushing touchdowns, and both were extremely limited in the passing game. The Raiders have continually given guys like DeAndre Washington, Jalen Richard, and Devontae Booker work alongside Jacobs over the last two years, so Drake is going to get mixed in quite heavily, and my guess would be that the passing game is where he gets most of it. You may not remember, but Drake was considered a solid third-down back early in his career with the Dolphins, and has two seasons with 50-plus catches on his NFL resume. It's tough to see him eating into Jacobs' carry totals a whole lot, especially after the way he looked with the Cardinals in 2020, but he should offer low-upside flex value due to his work in the passing game.
|
|
107.
Corey Davis
WR - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
108.
Mike Williams
WR - LAC (at LV)
How often can you find a wide receiver being drafted outside the top 40 who's capable of posting WR1-type numbers? Williams fits that bill. He already has a 1,000-yard season on his resume. He also has a 10-touchdown season on it. He also happens to have one of the brightest young stars as his quarterback with little else on the depth chart outside of Keenan Allen. Health has been the biggest question mark for Williams, but once you're outside the top-40 wide receivers, there's hardly guaranteed production on the board, so take the upside.
|
|
109.
Laviska Shenault Jr.
WR - JAC (vs . IND)
Shenault didn't exactly explode in his rookie year, but that was hardly his fault. Gardner Minshew, Jake Luton, and Mike Glennon combined to offer the worst quarterback play of any team in the league. Trevor Lawrence's arrival should help immensely even if he endures some rookie struggles, and, as he showed last year, Shenault can be used in a variety of creative ways, including the running game. The addition of Marvin Jones should push Shenault to the slot more often (he played on the outside 69% of the time last year), and that should be a good thing for his value. You'll be seeing Shenault on "breakout" lists a lot this year, and for good reason.
|
|
110.
Gus Edwards
RB - BAL (vs . PIT)
|
|
111.
Irv Smith Jr.
TE - MIN (vs . CHI)
We've been saying, "just wait until the Vikings get rid of Kyle Rudolph." That was when we were supposed to see Smith's breakout. Well, unfortunately for him, Justin Jefferson came around. Despite the Vikings inflating their pass attempts last year, the combination of Rudolph and Smith netted just 80 targets. Even if Smith received all of Rudolph's departed targets, that's no guarantee to net top-12 production. Their defense should get back on track this year, and it's not like Jefferson will become less involved. You shouldn't be paying for top-12 production, but rather hoping for it.
|
|
|
112.
Michael Carter
RB - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
113.
Michael Pittman Jr.
WR - IND (at JAC)
|
|
114.
Marvin Jones Jr.
WR - JAC (vs . IND)
I'll be the first to admit it's possible we're all underestimating Jones this year. Sure, he's now 31 years old, but he's also coming off 1,757 yards and 18 touchdowns over the last two seasons, and that was while missing three full games. The Jaguars and their new coaching staff sought him out in free agency and paid him $7 million per year, so he's not likely going to be "just a mentor" to the young receivers. It is tough to see him being a consistent producer, however, as D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault, and Travis Etienne are all going to be heavily targeted as well.
|
|
115.
Tyler Higbee
TE - LAR (vs . SF)
There've been six times over the course of Higbee's career where he's tallied more than 67 yards. Five of those games came at the end of the 2019 season when Gerald Everett was either out of the lineup or very limited. Well, Everett has been signed by the Seahawks, and the next man up on the Rams depth chart to fill his spot is Bryce Hopkins, who's seen as many targets as I have in an NFL uniform (none). Eliminating Everett's targets and upgrading Higbee's quarterback is the recipe for success, and it shouldn't shock anyone to see Higbee finish as a top-10 tight end in 2021.
|
|
116.
Antonio Brown
WR - TB (vs . CAR)
Brown was expected to be back with the Bucs all along. From the time he joined them in Week 9, Brown finished as the No. 38 wide receiver in fantasy. And to be fair, he got better as the year went on, as he had to get back into football shape. Over the final three games he saw 27 targets and turned them into 19 receptions for 266 yards and four touchdowns. Look, he's not going to surpass Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, but he'll be closer than some think.
|
|
117.
Rob Gronkowski
TE - TB (vs . CAR)
|
|
118.
Matt Ryan
QB - ATL (vs . NO)
|
|
119.
Devin Singletary
RB - BUF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
|
120.
Trey Sermon
RB - SF (at LAR)
As of now, we have to assume it's Raheem Mostert as the starting running back, though Kyle Shanahan did trade up into the third round to get Sermon. This should tell you that Mostert is on a short leash, and to be fair, he hasn't been able to hold up to a workhorse workload. The 49ers have one of the softest schedules in the league among running backs, so if we start hearing whispers that Sermon will start right out of the gate, he should shoot up draft boards. For now, he should be viewed as one of the best bench stashes in fantasy football.
|
|
121.
Darrell Henderson
RB - LAR (vs . SF)
Here's something not many people know. Cam Akers had two more touches than Henderson in 2020, yet Henderson finished with 35 more total yards and scored three more touchdowns. He also broke tackles more consistently than Akers. Look, this isn't me saying that Henderson is going to be the lead back; it appears that Sean McVay likes Akers and wants him to be the guy. All I'm saying is that if Akers isn't producing like they'd hoped, Henderson can fill that role. This is likely to be more of a timeshare than most believe, though Henderson is on the wrong end of it. Still, he'll have some value, and should Akers miss any time, Henderson could be a league winner.
|
|
122.
Kirk Cousins
QB - MIN (vs . CHI)
Yes, I'm fully aware that Cousins has continually finished as a top-12 quarterback, but my rankings are based on how I'd draft quarterbacks and not where I project them to finish. Why? Well, Cousins has stayed healthy and played all 16 games, allowing him to finish higher than those right around him who missed a game or two. But on a week-to-week basis, you're never going to say Cousins is a top-12 quarterback. He's a rock-solid QB2 in Superflex formats, but he's just a streamer in 1QB leagues. I'd rather draft someone like Trevor Lawrence for upside.
|
|
123.
Tony Pollard
RB - DAL (at PHI)
|
|
124.
T.Y. Hilton
WR - IND (at JAC)
|
|
125.
Latavius Murray
RB - NO (at ATL)
You can say this for Murray: you know what you're going to get while he is on the Saints. In 2019, he had 146 carries, 872 yards from scrimmage and six total touchdowns. In 2020, he had 146 carries, 832 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns. He's an ideal bench piece, who you can plug in when you're hurting because of bye weeks but who also acts as a top-end handcuff for Alvin Kamara. And don't worry about Drew Brees' departure - Murray has performed even better with the Saints without Brees than with him.
|
|
126.
Trevor Lawrence
QB - JAC (vs . IND)
While it's typically tough for a rookie quarterback to make it into top-12 territory, Lawrence is likely the exception to the rule. He comes in as an advanced passer who has tremendous touch on his passes that not many rookies do. The Jaguars defense is in clear rebuild mode, which should allow for plenty of pass attempts, making 4,000-plus passing yards likely. On top of that, Lawrence has great mobility and is likely to rush for 400-plus yards and a handful of touchdowns on the ground. That alone should get him into the top-15, with a good chance at top-12.
|
|
127.
Jamaal Williams
RB - DET (vs . GB)
|
|
128.
Jaylen Waddle
WR - MIA (vs . NE)
|
|
129.
Evan Engram
TE - NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
130.
Hunter Henry
TE - NE (at MIA)
|
|
131.
Jonnu Smith
TE - NE (at MIA)
Smith's talent was not put on display nearly enough with the Titans, as he never saw more than 65 targets in a single season. Despite that, he finished as a top-12 tight end in 2020. The Patriots were aggressive with him, signing him the first day of free agency to a four-year, $50 million deal, which tells us all we need to know: They aren't going to hide him. The signing of Hunter Henry hurt his projection a bit, but the drafting of Mac Jones improved it a bit because once he takes over as the starter, this team will throw a lot more. Once you get outside the top five tight ends, you're chasing upside, and Smith has plenty of it.
|
|
132.
Nyheim Hines
RB - IND (at JAC)
|
|
133.
Henry Ruggs III
WR - LV (vs . LAC)
Of all the rookie receivers last year, Ruggs looked to be in perhaps the best spot to provide immediate value given the truncated offseason. Most expected him to be the recipient of quick passes and just use his speed where he didn't need much time to develop a rapport with Derek Carr. Unfortunately, the Raiders completely misused Ruggs, as he had an aDOT of 17.4, second highest in the game among receivers with at least 30 targets, and was targeted downfield almost non-stop. Injuries were a part of it, of course, as Ruggs played more on the outside after Bryan Edwards got hurt, but it never seemed like the Raiders understood Ruggs' strengths. With another offseason, hopefully they will, and given the draft capital used on him, the team is surely looking to find ways for him to succeed this year. Don't draft him as a fantasy starter, but he has plenty of upside for your bench.
|
|
134.
Carson Wentz
QB - IND (at JAC)
We've legitimately seen Wentz perform as a top-five fantasy quarterback in Frank Reich's offense, so this one speaks for itself. The Colts offensive line might be better than the one the Eagles had in those days, though they'll need Eric Fisher healthy as soon as possible. Despite his bad 2020 season, Wentz has posted QB1-type numbers in 44.1 percent of the games in his career, which ranks as the 16th best quarterback over the last 15 years.
|
|
135.
Baker Mayfield
QB - CLE (vs . CIN)
We watched Mayfield take major strides in Kevin Stefanski's offense as the year went on in 2020, but it's important to remember that he didn't throw the ball more than 33 times in 12-of-16 games. They want to play good defense and run the ball as much as possible, which makes Mayfield much more efficient. While he's a great target in 2QB leagues, there's rarely a week-to-week ceiling to his projection.
|
|
136.
Nelson Agholor
WR - NE (at MIA)
|
|
137.
Alexander Mattison
RB - MIN (vs . CHI)
When drafting a player like Mattison, it's not going to make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside. He's a handcuff, plain and simple. As long as Dalvin Cook is on the field, Mattison isn't going to get more than 10 touches in a game. However, if Cook were to miss time, Mattison is a potential league winner. If you have the space on your bench for someone like Mattison, he's much better than a bye-week-filler-type player.
|
|
138.
Mecole Hardman
WR - KC (at DEN)
|
|
139.
Cole Beasley
WR - BUF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
140.
Jalen Reagor
WR - PHI (vs . DAL)
|
|
141.
Phillip Lindsay
RB - HOU (vs . TEN)
|
|
142.
Austin Hooper
TE - CLE (vs . CIN)
|
|
143.
Daniel Jones
QB - NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
144.
Darnell Mooney
WR - CHI (at MIN)
If you watched Mooney last year, you would've seen him routinely get open, only to be underthrown and overthrown by his quarterbacks. No matter who is under center for the Bears (it'll be Justin Fields before long), they'll be an upgrade for Mooney, who finished with 98 targets his rookie season, meaning he took over Taylor Gabriel's role and then some. With Anthony Miller crawling further and further into the doghouse, it's likely we see Mooney with a similar, if not bigger role in 2021. He's not likely to see a consistently high target share with Allen Robinson on the field, but with his field-stretching ability, he doesn't need double-digit targets to make a splash in fantasy. He'll be worth even more when Fields takes the starting job.
|
|
145.
John Brown
WR - LV (vs . LAC)
|
|
146.
Ryan Fitzpatrick
QB - WAS (at NYG)
This might seem weird to some, but Fitzpatrick has produced QB1-type numbers in 18-of-37 games over the last four years (includes seven games where he threw 18 or less passes). Do you know how many quarterbacks posted QB1-type numbers in better than 50 percent of their games in 2020? 10 of them. That's it. Under Scott Turner, the Panthers threw the ball 633 times with Cam Newton, Kyle Allen, and Will Grier in 2019. Then, in 2020, Washington threw the ball 599 times with Dwayne Haskins, Alex Smith, and Kyle Allen.
|
|
147.
Rashaad Penny
RB - SEA (at ARI)
|
|
148.
Jared Cook
TE - LAC (at LV)
|
|
149.
Pittsburgh Steelers
DST - PIT (at BAL)
|
|
150.
Blake Jarwin
TE - DAL (at PHI)
|
|
151.
Tua Tagovailoa
QB - MIA (vs . NE)
|
|
152.
Los Angeles Rams
DST - LAR (vs . SF)
|
|
153.
Ben Roethlisberger
QB - PIT (at BAL)
|
|
154.
Baltimore Ravens
DST - BAL (vs . PIT)
|
|
155.
Tarik Cohen
RB - CHI (at MIN)
Cohen tore his ACL in Week 3 last year, ending his year and leading to a monstrous David Montgomery season. He should be back and fully healthy this year, and ready to factor in heavily in the receiving game. Cohen ranked fourth in targets and catches among running backs from 2017-2019, and was second in targets on the Bears behind only Allen Robinson in 2019. The Bears have moved on from Mitchell Trubisky and now will have Andy Dalton and (hopefully) Justin Fields under center this year, but Cohen is one of the most dynamic pass-catchers at the running back position. He should return to his customary 80-plus targets and be a startable options most weeks in PPR formats.
|
|
156.
Jamison Crowder
WR - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
157.
Cole Kmet
TE - CHI (at MIN)
|
|
158.
Christian Kirk
WR - ARI (vs . SEA)
|
|
159.
Gabriel Davis
WR - BUF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
160.
Tevin Coleman
RB - NYJ (at BUF)
Let's just call it as it is: Coleman is essentially undrafted at this point in the offseason. He's not great, but he's going to be the starting running back for the Jets when the season begins. As time goes on, I fully expect Michael Carter to push him for that job (he's better than Coleman), but Coleman was brought to New York because he knows the offense. But still, a starting running back should be taken as a top-50 option.
|
|
161.
Derek Carr
QB - LV (vs . LAC)
The article I write every year titled, "Boom, Bust, and Everything In Between," highlights the both the consistency a player offers, as well as his upside. Carr has no upside. Over the last two years under Jon Gruden, Carr has played 32 games. In those games, he's delivered QB1-type performances just 14 times (43.8 percent), and a "boom" performance just one time (3.1 percent). I'd rather take shots on the rookie quarterbacks who might not start out of the gate, as Carr certainly wouldn't be your QB1.
|
|
162.
J.D. McKissic
RB - WAS (at NYG)
|
|
163.
Sony Michel
RB - NE (at MIA)
|
|
164.
Sterling Shepard
WR - NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
165.
San Francisco 49ers
DST - SF (at LAR)
|
|
166.
Indianapolis Colts
DST - IND (at JAC)
|
|
167.
Justin Tucker
K - BAL (vs . PIT)
Tucker remains the best kicker in the game from a real-life standpoint, hitting nearly 90% of his field-goal attempts and all but one of his extra-point attempts last year. The issue from a fantasy standpoint is that the Ravens' efficiency in the red zone with Lamar Jackson under center has led to fewer field goal attempts. After averaging 39 field-goal attempts per season from 2015-2018, Tucker has attempted just 29 field goals in each of the past two seasons. His increase in extra-point attempts (he's averaged 56 extra-point attempts the last two seasons after averaging just 33 the four prior seasons) just isn't enough to make up the difference. Still, even if Tucker is down from his peak, he remains a locked-in top-10 kicker and the safest option on the board. He should be one of the first few taken at the position, even if his upside isn't quite as high anymore.
|
|
168.
Justin Fields
QB - CHI (at MIN)
|
|
169.
Darius Slayton
WR - NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
170.
James White
RB - NE (at MIA)
|
|
171.
Denzel Mims
WR - NYJ (at BUF)
Mims began his rookie campaign on injured reserve, and when he did get on the field, poor quarterback play ultimately led to a quiet fantasy season. But he showed himself to be a strong deep-ball threat (his aDOT of 15.3 yards was sixth-most among receivers with at least 40 targets), and flashed playmaking ability. Other than his talent level and NFL-readiness, though, there's just not a whole lot fantasy managers can take away from Mims' 2020 season - the Jets have a new quarterback in Zach Wilson, better receiving options with Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, and Keelan Cole, and a new offensive system under Robert Saleh and Mike LaFleur. It's unlikely that he'll develop into a consistent fantasy option this season, but there's upside, particularly if the Jets' receiving group sustains any injuries. Draft him as a bench stash with the potential for more if everything breaks right.
|
|
172.
Breshad Perriman
WR - DET (vs . GB)
Is it possible Perriman is the Lions best wide receiver in fantasy this year? While that may not mean much, it's something. The issue I have believing that is due to his strengths not aligning with Jared Goff's strengths. It's no secret that Goff has struggled to consistently throw the ball down the field, and it's part of the reason the Rams moved on from him. Perriman will be playing in another new offense with another new quarterback, something he knows all too well at this point. There will likely be a few splash weeks, but you should be happy to let someone else draft him.
|
|
173.
Parris Campbell
WR - IND (at JAC)
Whenever a receiver gets hurt early in the year, it's easy for drafters to forget about them. Campbell had nine targets, six receptions, and 71 yards in the one game he played last year. Do you know how many times Michael Pittman (who's being drafted as a top-50 wide receiver) can say he hit those numbers? Once. Both former second rounders have a ceiling depending on who Carson Wentz favors, but it's not built into Campbell's price. If Wentz keeps doing what he did in Philadelphia, that's targeting tight ends/slot receivers over the middle of the field, which is primarily where Campbell lines up.
|
|
174.
Marlon Mack
RB - IND (at JAC)
Mack is going to be a tough one to project in 2021, as he's returning from an Achilles injury, which used to be a career killer. It still might be, and it's not like Mack was lighting the world on fire before he suffered that injury. Jonathan Taylor is the lead back and Nyheim Hines will cap upside as the receiving back, so Mack is arguably just a second-tier handcuff who also has question marks about his health.
|
|
|
175.
Rashod Bateman
WR - BAL (vs . PIT)
I was leading the charge for Bateman during the draft process, saying he reminded me of Keenan Allen. After landing with the Ravens, I'm not so excited about him anymore. The Ravens have targeted their wide receivers just 393 times over the last two seasons, a number that four teams hit in 2020 alone. The passing will likely increase in 2021 after the acquisitions of a few pass catchers, but they're not going to be changing their entire philosophy. We need targets in order for Bateman to break out, and it's tough to project him getting even 100 of them, making him a bench hopeful in fantasy.
|
|
176.
Eric Ebron
TE - PIT (at BAL)
|
|
177.
Washington Football Team
DST - WAS (at NYG)
|
|
178.
Harrison Butker
K - KC (at DEN)
Butker had the worst fantasy season of his career, though it was hardly his fault. He set a career-high by hitting 92.6% of his field-goal attempts, including all four of his ones from 50 or more yards. The problem was largely the lack of volume, as he attempted just 27 field goals on the season after 38 the year before. Even with his "down" year, Butker remains one of the most accurate kickers in the game playing on an elite offense. He should be drafted as one of the first few kickers off the board, and managers should just hope the Kansas City offense stalls just a bit more before reaching the end zone.
|
|
179.
Younghoe Koo
K - ATL (vs . NO)
Koo scored the most fantasy points per game of any kicker, and would have been the tops overall at the position had he not missed a game because of a COVID-19 situation. Koo missed just two field goals all year, and was a perfect 8-for-8 from 50 yards or more. He'll again play in a dome in Atlanta, but with new head coach Arthur Smith and an offense that will be slower and less explosive without Julio Jones, it's far from a sure thing that he'll see 39 field-goal attempts again. Nevertheless, the indoor environment and Koo's success from long range makes him a top-five option at the kicker position.
|
|
180.
Allen Lazard
WR - GB (at DET)
When the Packers drafted Amari Rodgers, who has a lot of Randall Cobb to his game, Lazard's projection became unclear. He was the Packers primary slot receiver last year, playing 53 percent of his snaps in the slot. So, it's either they move Marquez Valdes-Scantling to the bench and put Lazard in his place, or all three of them rotate on the field, which is certainly not ideal for fantasy purposes. Lazard had his shot at a breakout, but unfortunately, it didn't happen.
|
|
181.
Gerald Everett
TE - SEA (at ARI)
|
|
182.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DST - TB (vs . CAR)
|
|
183.
Sam Darnold
QB - CAR (at TB)
|
|
184.
Salvon Ahmed
RB - MIA (vs . NE)
He's kind of gone under the radar this offseason, though it's odd because of how well he played when given the opportunity last year as Myles Gaskin's primary backup. He tallied 63 total touches, 291 total yards, and two touchdowns in the three games he played a big role, which is certainly enough to be started in fantasy. Worst case scenario is that he's a handcuff to Gaskin, who hasn't proven the ability to remain healthy in a workhorse role.
|
|
185.
Tre'Quan Smith
WR - NO (at ATL)
Is Smith to blame for his lack of involvement in the offense, or were there just not enough targets to go around? He's seen 119 targets over his first three seasons combined, which have amounted to 80 receptions, 1,109 yards, and 14 touchdowns, so the efficiency has been top-notch. Did Drew Brees not have the arm to push the ball down the field anymore? If Jameis Winston is the quarterback, Smith may very well be a sleeper in fantasy drafts, though that optimism would die quickly if Taysom Hill were named the starter.
|
|
186.
New Orleans Saints
DST - NO (at ATL)
|
|
187.
Buffalo Bills
DST - BUF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
188.
New England Patriots
DST - NE (at MIA)
|
|
189.
Zach Ertz
TE - PHI (vs . DAL)
|
|
190.
Russell Gage
WR - ATL (vs . NO)
In case you may have missed it, Dirk Koetter is no longer calling plays for the Falcons. The Falcons ran 3WR sets 61 percent of the time last year, which allowed Gage to get on the field more often. Arthur Smith's offense in Tennessee last year ran 3WR sets just 38 percent of the time, the second-lowest mark in football. That obviously presents a problem for Gage, as does the arrival of Kyle Pitts, who'll be utilized as a receiver at times. Some may wonder if the loss of Julio Jones opens things up for him. Yes, it will likely net him more targets, but targets on the perimeter haven't been the same for Gage, as he works best from the slot. The Falcons could very well start Tajae Sharpe over him in 2WR sets.
|
|
191.
Emmanuel Sanders
WR - BUF (vs . NYJ)
He's now been on four different teams in the last four years, though he's still remaining relevant in the fantasy conversation. He's also going to play with one of the best young quarterbacks in football, though he's clearly behind Stefon Diggs in the pecking order. The move to sign Sanders was odd considering how well Gabriel Davis played last year, but the Bills do run the second-most 4WR sets in football, so they'll be on the field together at times. But still, Sanders is now 34 years old and is likely in Buffalo to provide a reliable receiver in a pinch rather than one who'll pop back into the WR3 conversation. He is what he is at this point, which is a low-upside bye week filler.
|
|
192.
Kansas City Chiefs
DST - KC (at DEN)
|
|
193.
Benny Snell Jr.
RB - PIT (at BAL)
|
|
194.
Greg Zuerlein
K - DAL (at PHI)
Memories of Zuerlein's outstanding 2017 season with the Rams keep him on the forefront of fantasy managers' minds, but the fact is that he hasn't been nearly the same kicker since. He missed seven field-goal attempts and three extra-point attempts last year, but was a solid fantasy starter simply because of his volume. He led the league in field-goal attempts with 41, and was accurate within 50 yards, missing just a single kick. But he simply couldn't hit from long range, going just 3-for-9 from 50-plus yards. With Dak Prescott back, the Dallas offense should put up plenty of points, which should again provide Zuerlein with a ton of opportunities. If he can rediscover his accuracy from long distance, he'll likely be a stud option, but even if not, he's a fantasy starter.
|
|
195.
Adam Trautman
TE - NO (at ATL)
|
|
196.
Giovani Bernard
RB - TB (vs . CAR)
|
|
197.
Anthony Firkser
TE - TEN (at HOU)
|
|
198.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
WR - GB (at DET)
|
|
199.
Jared Goff
QB - DET (vs . GB)
If you were thinking the hate went too far with Goff and that he might be a decent streamer/platoon option, think again. His start to the season is a nightmare and it really doesn't get any better as it goes on. The first seven weeks include the 49ers, Packers, Ravens, Bears, Vikings, and Rams. If you want to find a great matchup, you have to wait all the way until Week 16. The Lions offense isn't one you should aggressively attack in fantasy drafts.
|
|
200.
Hayden Hurst
TE - ATL (vs . NO)
|
|
201.
Wil Lutz
K - NO (at ATL)
Lutz had his worst season as a professional, setting career-lows in field goal percentage (82.1%), attempts (28), and conversions (23). The New Orleans offense was simply far less explosive with a declining (and injured) Drew Brees, and Lutz couldn't make up for his lack of efficiency with increased volume. We don't know what the Saints offense will look like this year or even definitively who will be under center, but Lutz's pedigree and the controlled environment of the Superdome make him a startable option in fantasy heading into the 2021 season regardless.
|
|
|
202.
Kenneth Gainwell
RB - PHI (vs . DAL)
|
|
203.
Jameis Winston
QB - NO (at ATL)
|
|
204.
Joshua Kelley
RB - LAC (at LV)
He had his chance and likely blew it. Kelley acted as the early-down back for the Chargers last year, but wound up averaging more than 4.0 yards per carry just four times all season, including seven games averaging 3.1 or less yards per carry. Neither Justin Jackson nor Austin Ekeler had issues running behind the line, as both of them tallied 4.6 yards per carry. The Chargers also have a new coaching staff and drafted Larry Rountree in the 2021 draft, which could make Kelley expendable, or pushed down the depth chart.
|
|
205.
A.J. Green
WR - ARI (vs . SEA)
There are some things in life we just need to set free and Green is one of them. I was on board with a bounce-back season in 2020, but despite seeing 104 targets and finishing towards the league leaders in air yards, Green couldn't even muster up a top-65 season. No other wide receiver with 100-plus targets finished worse than WR44. Now competing for targets with DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, and Rondale Moore? Green was so good and arguably undervalued for so long, but those times seem to have passed, as injuries have caught up with the big fella.
|
|
206.
Chicago Bears
DST - CHI (at MIN)
|
|
|
207.
Rondale Moore
WR - ARI (vs . SEA)
|
|
208.
Jeff Wilson Jr.
RB - SF (at LAR)
|
|
|
209.
Elijah Moore
WR - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
210.
Cam Newton
QB - NE (at MIA)
It seems we won't know who the Patriots starting quarterback will be until weeks before the start of the season, but the expectation should be that Newton starts Week 1. He wasn't good in 2020 - there's no denying that, though it certainly didn't help that his top receiver was out for most of the season, and they were weak behind him on the depth chart. The Patriots beefed up their wide receiver/tight end depth chart by signing quite a few players, including Jonnu Smith, Nelson Agholor, and Hunter Henry. Knowing that Newton still flashed 500-plus yard rushing upside, he can be considered a solid streamer as long as he has the job, but if he plays like he did last year, his starting job will be short lived.
|
|
211.
Darrel Williams
RB - KC (at DEN)
|
|
212.
Jason Sanders
K - MIA (vs . NE)
Sanders was the top kicker in fantasy both because he was in an offense that was able to move the ball consistently but not score touchdowns and because he was just flat-out accurate. He was perfect from within 40 yards and on extra-point attempts, went 12-of-14 from 40-49 yards, and 8-of-9 from 50 yards or more. Sanders had never shown that level of accuracy from long range before, so fantasy managers would be wise to view it with a bit of skepticism. Still, with his 2020 performance, it would be difficult to consider drafting him as anything but a top-10 kicker in fantasy.
|
|
213.
Josh Reynolds
WR - TEN (at HOU)
|
|
214.
Carlos Hyde
RB - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
215.
Jakobi Meyers
WR - NE (at MIA)
With Julian Edelman out of New England, we might see Meyers be the receiver to step into that role, though the lack of clarity with the quarterback situation is what will supress our optimism. In an expanded role with Edelman out last year, Meyers totaled 45-plus yards in 9-of-11 games, including two games with 110-plus yards. He didn't score a single touchdown, which is part of the reason he's not getting any love. What if I told you he finished with just one fewer catch and 19 fewer yards than Brandon Aiyuk last year? The concern is the addition of Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne, who both signed lucrative deals. Meyers is worth a late-round pick in case he is the top receiver in New England.
|
|
216.
Dawson Knox
TE - BUF (vs . NYJ)
Despite the Bills lacking any semblance of a run game, Knox hasn't been able to really break out in this offense. He's seen 94 targets in 27 games, which isn't the worst way to start your career, but when they go out and add Emmanuel Sanders in free agency, it's going to be tough to build on those numbers. It's not a bad thing to be tied to Josh Allen, but with what seems like a four-target-per-game ceiling, he's going to be touchdown-or-bust most weeks, making him a streamer.
|
|
217.
Los Angeles Chargers
DST - LAC (at LV)
|
|
218.
Mark Ingram II
RB - HOU (vs . TEN)
Would Ingram have signed with the Texans had he known all the moves that have taken place? I'm guessing not. He's now stuck on a depth chart that has David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, and Rex Burkhead on it, while Tyrod Taylor is under center on what's expected to be a low-scoring Texans offense. You should avoid the Texans if you can help it, especially Ingram.
|
|
219.
Matt Prater
K - ARI (vs . SEA)
|
|
220.
Zach Wilson
QB - NYJ (at BUF)
The Jets liked Wilson enough to draft him over Trey Lance and Justin Fields, which tells you just how high they were on him. Judging by ADP on the entire Jets roster, many are still approaching the team as if they're run by Adam Gase. Insider info: They're not. Wilson is locked in as the starter all year long in Mike LaFleur's offense, and fantasy managers need to know about Wilson's upside as a rusher. Even Daniel Jones, who threw for 11 touchdowns in 14 games last year and missed two games, finished as a top-24 quarterback due to his 423 yards and one touchdown on the ground. Wilson is going to finish as a top-20 fantasy quarterback in year one.
|
|
221.
Robbie Gould
K - SF (at LAR)
|
|
222.
Denver Broncos
DST - DEN (vs . KC)
|
|
223.
Rodrigo Blankenship
K - IND (at JAC)
Blankenship had a fine rookie season with the Colts, and not just because he spawned a whole bunch of fantastic Halloween costumes with his signature look. He ranked fourth in the NFL in field-goal attempts wit 37 and converted 86.5% of his tries. Along with his 43 extra-point conversation, Blankenship ended the year as the sixth-best kicker in fantasy. Kicking in a dome and for an offense that should again be able to move the ball well but perhaps not score touchdowns at will, Blankenship should be a fine fantasy option once again.
|
|
224.
O.J. Howard
TE - TB (vs . CAR)
|
|
225.
Deshaun Watson
QB - HOU (vs . TEN)
The Texans want Watson to play for them. Watson doesn't want to play for them. Watson wants to be traded. No team wants the PR nightmare that would come with a trade for Watson. Also, the Texans don't want to trade him. The NFL might also step in and suspend Watson for these off-the-field incidents. It's not one obstacle, it's many of them. He shouldn't be on your redraft radar for the time being.
|
|
226.
Sammy Watkins
WR - BAL (vs . PIT)
|
|
227.
Miami Dolphins
DST - MIA (vs . NE)
|
|
228.
Jason Myers
K - SEA (at ARI)
From a real-life perspective, Myers had a fantastic season. He was perfect on his field-goal attempts, and converted the longest attempt in the NFL at 61 yards. The problem for fantasy purposes is that the Seahawks again ranked near the bottom of field-goal attempts at 24, meaning Myers' excellence was somewhat wasted. Even so, he still finished as th No. 10 quarterback in fantasy, and he should continue to be a reliable option. If Seattle can manage to attempt more field-goal attempts than the 26 they have averaged over the last two seasons, Myers could be an elite option.
|
|
229.
Bryan Edwards
WR - LV (vs . LAC)
|
|
230.
Cleveland Browns
DST - CLE (vs . CIN)
|
|
231.
La'Mical Perine
RB - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
|
232.
Trey Lance
QB - SF (at LAR)
|
|
233.
Green Bay Packers
DST - GB (at DET)
|
|
234.
Tyler Bass
K - BUF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
235.
Damien Williams
RB - CHI (at MIN)
|
|
236.
Seattle Seahawks
DST - SEA (at ARI)
|
|
237.
Michael Badgley
K - LAC (at LV)
|
|
238.
Minnesota Vikings
DST - MIN (vs . CHI)
|
|
239.
Ryan Succop
K - TB (vs . CAR)
|
|
|
240.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR - DET (vs . GB)
|
|
241.
Mason Crosby
K - GB (at DET)
|
|
242.
KJ Hamler
WR - DEN (vs . KC)
|
|
243.
Justin Jackson
RB - LAC (at LV)
|
|
244.
Malcolm Brown
RB - MIA (vs . NE)
Brown's a role player, plain and simple. The Dolphins are going to give him touches; you don't sign a player for nearly $2 million to have him fourth on the running back depth chart. With that being said, he's not a sleeper candidate or anything, but rather someone who takes away some of the upside of players like Myles Gaskin.
|
|
245.
DeSean Jackson
WR - LAR (vs . SF)
|
|
|
246.
Terrace Marshall Jr.
WR - CAR (at TB)
|
|
247.
Tim Patrick
WR - DEN (vs . KC)
|
|
248.
Kerryon Johnson
RB - PHI (vs . DAL)
It's obviously never a good thing to see a running back cut from his rookie contract, but that's what happened with Johnson and the Lions. The Eagles were quick to snag him after that, but it's another timeshare situation where he's clearly the No. 2 back behind Miles Sanders. When you add in Kenneth Gainwell as the best receiving option, it's difficult to say where Johnson fits in. He'll need an injury to be fantasy relevant.
|
|
249.
Anthony Miller
WR - CHI (at MIN)
Despite trading up to draft Miller in the second round and having little depth behind Allen Robinson, the Bears have not given him opportunity to match his draft cost. He has yet to top 85 targets in a season, a number that Darnell Mooney surpassed as a rookie. Even Taylor Gabriel topped that number in 2018. Now that Mooney is in year two and the Bears added Dazz Newsome in the draft, it's unlikely we see the breakout we thought we would with Miller. The Bears are also reportedly interested in trading him, which could change his outlook in a hurry.
|
|
250.
James Washington
WR - PIT (at BAL)
|
|
251.
Philadelphia Eagles
DST - PHI (vs . DAL)
|
|
252.
Boston Scott
RB - PHI (vs . DAL)
He went from a player who had the passing-down back role locked down at the start of the offseason, but we've watched that fade as we move throughout the offseason. The addition of Kenneth Gainwell in the draft was always going to be a problem, as Gainwell was arguably the best pass-catching back in the draft class. Not just Gainwell, though, as the team also signed Kerryon Johnson once the Lions released him. Opportunity is fading for Scott, who's nowhere near the redraft radar at this point.
|
|
253.
Randall Cobb
WR - HOU (vs . TEN)
|
|
254.
Darrynton Evans
RB - TEN (at HOU)
|
|
255.
Preston Williams
WR - MIA (vs . NE)
|
|
256.
Dan Arnold
TE - CAR (at TB)
|
|
257.
Hunter Renfrow
WR - LV (vs . LAC)
|
|
258.
Chris Herndon IV
TE - NYJ (at BUF)
After an impressive rookie campaign where he tallied 502 yards and four touchdowns on just 56 targets, Herndon's last two seasons have been... non-existent. Adam Gase didn't make Herndon a priority in the offense, but he's gone, which can give us room for optimism. This is a brand-new offense and one that should reset your thinking on what Herndon is/isn't.
|
|
|
259.
Chuba Hubbard
RB - CAR (at TB)
|
|
260.
Jake Elliott
K - PHI (vs . DAL)
|
|
261.
Van Jefferson
WR - LAR (vs . SF)
|
|
262.
Jack Doyle
TE - IND (at JAC)
With Trey Burton no longer on the roster, does Doyle have more appeal in fantasy? Well, yeah. The Colts targeted their tight ends 118 times last year, but dividing that three ways proved to be worthless for fantasy. Those targets should be divided between Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox in 2021, which makes him a bit more attractive, but Alie-Cox is the one with the true breakout potential, whereas Doyle will probably be the higher floor play.
|
|
|
263.
Kadarius Toney
WR - NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
264.
Tyrell Williams
WR - DET (vs . GB)
|
|
265.
Daniel Carlson
K - LV (vs . LAC)
|
|
266.
Ke'Shawn Vaughn
RB - TB (vs . CAR)
|
|
267.
Brandon McManus
K - DEN (vs . KC)
|
|
268.
Joey Slye
K - CAR (at TB)
|
|
269.
Tennessee Titans
DST - TEN (at HOU)
|
|
270.
Anthony McFarland Jr.
RB - PIT (at BAL)
|
|
271.
Jimmy Graham
TE - CHI (at MIN)
|
|
272.
Taysom Hill
QB - NO (at ATL)
As of now, the Saints are undecided on who the starting quarterback will be heading into the 2021 season. If it's Hill, he's going to jump all the way up into the top-15 quarterback conversation. If I knew he'd start all 17 games, he'd be ranked top-10 for his rushing upside, but it seems like Jameis Winston has the slight edge heading into camp. Do you think that sounds crazy? It's not. Hill was the QB6 during the month he started while Drew Brees was out. This is a battle we'll be watching closely as the season nears.
|
|
273.
Ka'imi Fairbairn
K - HOU (vs . TEN)
|
|
|
274.
Amari Rodgers
WR - GB (at DET)
|
|
275.
Matt Breida
RB - BUF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
276.
Rashard Higgins
WR - CLE (vs . CIN)
|
|
277.
Zach Pascal
WR - IND (at JAC)
Pascal has kind of just "hung around" in the fantasy conversatoin over the last two years due to injuries to T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman, and Parris Campbell. He's made the most of his opportunity, totaling at least 600 yards and five touchdowns in each of the last two seasons despite not eclipsing 72 targets. However, going into 2021 with a healthy group of pass catchers, Pascal will only be on the field in 4WR sets, which doesn't work for fantasy.
|
|
278.
Wayne Gallman
RB - SF (at LAR)
I was really hoping Gallman would get an opportunity somewhere after flashing his ability in 2020 where he talled double-digit PPR points in seven straight games after taking over for Saquon Barkley and Devonta Freeman. Unfortunately, he landed on a depth chart that's now crowded with Raheem Mostert, Trey Sermon, Jeff Wilson, and Elijah Mitchell. The injury to Wilson that'll keep him out at the start of the season likely holds a roster spot for Gallman, but he'd need a few injuries to be relevant.
|
|
279.
Jerick McKinnon
RB - KC (at DEN)
|
|
280.
New York Jets
DST - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
281.
Chris Boswell
K - PIT (at BAL)
|
|
|
282.
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB - NE (at MIA)
|
|
283.
New York Giants
DST - NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
284.
N'Keal Harry
WR - NE (at MIA)
Through two full seasons, Harry has not lived up to expectations. He's only seen 81 targets over those first two years, but that's due to his lack of efficiency. Since coming into the league, his 5.11 yards per target ranks as the second-worst in the NFL during that time. After the Patriots spend a boatload of money in free agency, we can't even say that Harry is a top-three receiver on the depth chart.
|
|
285.
Keke Coutee
WR - HOU (vs . TEN)
|
|
286.
Jimmy Garoppolo
QB - SF (at LAR)
|
|
287.
Tyron Johnson
WR - LAC (at LV)
|
|
288.
Dustin Hopkins
K - WAS (at NYG)
|
|
289.
Josh Lambo
K - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
290.
Kendrick Bourne
WR - NE (at MIA)
|
|
|
291.
Javian Hawkins
RB - ATL (vs . NO)
Everyone who scouted this year's class of running backs knew that Hawkins wouldn't be a workhorse running back anywhere, but he was a shifty back who might be a decent timeshare back in the right offense. Landing with Arthur Smith on the Falcons depth chart may have been his best shot at relevance, as the Falcons have almost no depth behind Mike Davis. I wouldn't expect more than 5-8 touches without injury, but he's a name worth monitoring if Davis were to miss time.
|
|
292.
Todd Gurley II
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
293.
Arizona Cardinals
DST - ARI (vs . SEA)
|
|
294.
Teddy Bridgewater
QB - DEN (vs . KC)
|
|
295.
Travis Fulgham
WR - PHI (vs . DAL)
Hey, remember that five-week stretch where Fulgham was the No. 1 fantasy football wide receiver? No, I'm not kidding. From Week 4 through Week 8, Fulgham scored 82.0 half PPR points while no other receiver scored more than 74.3 of them. Then, suddenly, the Eagles chose to not involve him in the offense anymore. It was odd, really. The Eagles now clearly have Devonta Smith and Jalen Reagor ahead of him on the depth chart, but if Jalen Hurts can take a step forward in his passing in 2021, we could see Fulgham have a few usable weeks in fantasy as the team's No. 3 receiver.
|
|
296.
Quintez Cephus
WR - DET (vs . GB)
|
|
297.
Le'Veon Bell
RB - KC (at DEN)
|
|
298.
Zane Gonzalez
K - FA (BYE)
|
|
299.
Dallas Cowboys
DST - DAL (at PHI)
|
|
300.
Kyle Rudolph
TE - NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
301.
Drew Lock
QB - DEN (vs . KC)
We have no idea who will start for the Broncos to start the season, and while it's likely going to be Lock, he needs to improve drastically, because he'll now have a much shorter leash. The Broncos have one of the most talented groups on offense and are just a quarterback away from exploding. Can Lock take the year three leap? To this point, he's averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt with 23 touchdowns and 18 interceptions through 18 games.
|
|
302.
Scotty Miller
WR - TB (vs . CAR)
|
|
303.
Stephen Gostkowski
K - TEN (at HOU)
|
|
304.
Devontae Booker
RB - NYG (vs . WAS)
After exiting Denver's mess to join Las Vegas, most assumed Booker's career was nearing an end, but he was solid with them, averaging 4.5 yards per carry and eating into Josh Jacobs' workload a bit. While I don't expect the same thing to happen with the Giants, he's the clear No. 2 on their depth chart behind Saquon Barkley, who's had plenty of health concerns in his short career.
|
|
305.
Duke Johnson Jr.
RB - FA (BYE)
|
|
306.
Jacksonville Jaguars
DST - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
307.
Ian Thomas
TE - CAR (at TB)
|
|
308.
Donovan Peoples-Jones
WR - CLE (vs . CIN)
|
|
309.
Ty Johnson
RB - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
310.
Austin Seibert
K - CIN (at CLE)
|
|
311.
Atlanta Falcons
DST - ATL (vs . NO)
|
|
312.
Matt Gay
K - LAR (vs . SF)
|
|
313.
Graham Gano
K - NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
314.
Andy Isabella
WR - ARI (vs . SEA)
|
|
|
315.
Nico Collins
WR - HOU (vs . TEN)
|
|
316.
Keelan Cole Sr.
WR - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
317.
Ito Smith
RB - ATL (vs . NO)
|
|
318.
Miles Boykin
WR - BAL (vs . PIT)
There was a time where people were excited about what Boykin might bring to the table. That time has passed, as he's now entering his third season with just 32 receptions under his belt. He's actually performed solid on a per-target basis, but his opportunity is gone with the additions of Rashod Bateman, Sammy Watkins, and Tylan Wallace to the wide receiver depth chart. He wasn't fantasy relevant without them, so he sure as heck won't be with them.
|
|
319.
Rex Burkhead
RB - HOU (vs . TEN)
|
|
320.
Samaje Perine
RB - CIN (at CLE)
|
|
321.
Jordan Howard
RB - PHI (vs . DAL)
|
|
322.
Brian Hill
RB - TEN (at HOU)
|
|
323.
Tyrod Taylor
QB - HOU (vs . TEN)
|
|
324.
DeeJay Dallas
RB - SEA (at ARI)
Once Chris Carson re-signed with the Seahawks, almost all hope for Dallas went out the window. Carson is clearly the lead back, while Rashaad Penny is fully rehabbed from his ACL injury, making Dallas the No. 3 option at best, and he'd still likely have to fight with Alex Collins and/or Travis Homer for that job.
|
|
325.
Will Dissly
TE - SEA (at ARI)
|
|
326.
Greg Ward
WR - PHI (vs . DAL)
|
|
327.
John Ross
WR - NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
328.
Carolina Panthers
DST - CAR (at TB)
|
|
329.
Jalen Richard
RB - LV (vs . LAC)
|
|
330.
Dan Bailey
K - FA (BYE)
|
|
|
331.
D'Wayne Eskridge
WR - SEA (at ARI)
|
|
332.
Eno Benjamin
RB - ARI (vs . SEA)
|
|
333.
Mac Jones
QB - NE (at MIA)
|
|
334.
Houston Texans
DST - HOU (vs . TEN)
|
|
335.
Adrian Peterson
RB - DET (vs . GB)
|
|
336.
Donald Parham Jr.
TE - LAC (at LV)
|
|
337.
Kalen Ballage
RB - PIT (at BAL)
|
|
338.
Dalton Schultz
TE - DAL (at PHI)
|
|
|
339.
Dyami Brown
WR - WAS (at NYG)
|
|
340.
Jordan Wilkins
RB - IND (at JAC)
|
|
341.
Justice Hill
RB - BAL (vs . PIT)
|
|
342.
Tyler Eifert
TE - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
343.
Golden Tate
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
344.
David Njoku
TE - CLE (vs . CIN)
|
|
345.
Ryquell Armstead
RB - NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
346.
Steven Sims Jr.
WR - WAS (at NYG)
|
|
347.
Mike Boone
RB - DEN (vs . KC)
|
|
348.
Cairo Santos
K - CHI (at MIN)
|
|
349.
Demarcus Robinson
WR - KC (at DEN)
|
|
350.
Lynn Bowden Jr.
WR - MIA (vs . NE)
|
|
351.
Andy Dalton
QB - CHI (at MIN)
|
|
352.
Mo Alie-Cox
TE - IND (at JAC)
|
|
353.
Jermar Jefferson
RB - DET (vs . GB)
|
|
354.
Jordan Akins
TE - HOU (vs . TEN)
|
|
355.
Sam Sloman
K - TEN (at HOU)
|
|
356.
Jalen Guyton
WR - LAC (at LV)
|
|
357.
Chris Thompson
RB - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
358.
Harrison Bryant
TE - CLE (vs . CIN)
|
|
359.
Dede Westbrook
WR - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
360.
Bryce Love
RB - WAS (at NYG)
|
|
|
361.
Elijah Mitchell
RB - SF (at LAR)
|
|
362.
Peyton Barber
RB - WAS (at NYG)
|
|
363.
Detroit Lions
DST - DET (vs . GB)
|
|
364.
Byron Pringle
WR - KC (at DEN)
|
|
365.
Antonio Gandy-Golden
WR - WAS (at NYG)
|
|
366.
Randy Bullock
K - DET (vs . GB)
|
|
367.
Cordarrelle Patterson
WR,RB - ATL (vs . NO)
|
|
368.
Larry Fitzgerald
WR - ARI (vs . SEA)
|
|
369.
C.J. Uzomah
TE - CIN (at CLE)
|
|
|
370.
Pat Freiermuth
TE - PIT (at BAL)
|
|
|
371.
Dez Fitzpatrick
WR - TEN (at HOU)
|
|
372.
Drew Sample
TE - CIN (at CLE)
|
|
373.
Danny Amendola
WR - DET (vs . GB)
|
|
374.
Cody Parkey
K - CLE (vs . CIN)
|
|
|
375.
Larry Rountree III
RB - LAC (at LV)
|
|
376.
Royce Freeman
RB - DEN (vs . KC)
|
|
377.
Olamide Zaccheaus
WR - ATL (vs . NO)
|
|
378.
Las Vegas Raiders
DST - LV (vs . LAC)
|
|
379.
Tylan Wallace
WR - BAL (vs . PIT)
|
|
380.
Albert Okwuegbunam
TE - DEN (vs . KC)
|
|
|
381.
Josh Palmer
WR - LAC (at LV)
|
|
382.
Alshon Jeffery
WR - FA (BYE)
|
|
383.
Cincinnati Bengals
DST - CIN (at CLE)
|
|
384.
Tyler Johnson
WR - TB (vs . CAR)
|
|
|
385.
Tutu Atwell
WR - LAR (vs . SF)
|
|
386.
Qadree Ollison
RB - ATL (vs . NO)
|
|
|
387.
Brevin Jordan
TE - HOU (vs . TEN)
|
|
388.
Cameron Brate
TE - TB (vs . CAR)
|
|
|
389.
Kylin Hill
RB - GB (at DET)
|
|
390.
Dare Ogunbowale
RB - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
391.
Jordan Love
QB - GB (at DET)
|
|
392.
Nick Folk
K - NE (at MIA)
|
|
393.
Devin Duvernay
WR - BAL (vs . PIT)
|
|
394.
Devine Ozigbo
RB - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
|
395.
Evan McPherson
K - CIN (at CLE)
|
|
396.
Mitchell Trubisky
QB - BUF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
397.
Collin Johnson
WR - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
398.
Cam Sims
WR - WAS (at NYG)
|
|
399.
Marquez Callaway
WR - NO (at ATL)
|
|
400.
Chris Conley
WR - HOU (vs . TEN)
|
|
401.
Auden Tate
WR - CIN (at CLE)
|
|
|
402.
Khalil Herbert
RB - CHI (at MIN)
|
|
403.
Gardner Minshew II
QB - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
404.
Greg Joseph
K - MIN (vs . CHI)
|
|
405.
Frank Gore
RB - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
406.
David Moore
WR - CAR (at TB)
|
|
407.
Jacob Hollister
TE - BUF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
|
408.
Cornell Powell
WR - KC (at DEN)
|
|
409.
Jalen Hurd
WR - SF (at LAR)
|
|
410.
LeSean McCoy
RB - TB (vs . CAR)
|
|
411.
Darwin Thompson
RB - KC (at DEN)
|
|
412.
Tucker McCann
K - TEN (at HOU)
|
|
|
413.
Chris Evans
RB - CIN (at CLE)
|
|
414.
Deonte Harris
WR - NO (at ATL)
|
|
415.
Devin Funchess
WR - GB (at DET)
|
|
416.
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside
WR - PHI (vs . DAL)
|
|
|
417.
Tim Tebow
TE - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
|
418.
Davis Mills
QB - HOU (vs . TEN)
|
|
419.
Sam Ficken
K - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
420.
Maxx Williams
TE - ARI (vs . SEA)
|
|
|
421.
Dazz Newsome
WR - CHI (at MIN)
|
|
422.
Kenny Stills
WR - BUF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
423.
Adam Humphries
WR - WAS (at NYG)
|
|
|
424.
Jaret Patterson
RB - WAS (at NYG)
|
|
425.
Foster Moreau
TE - LV (vs . LAC)
|
|
426.
Kyle Juszczyk
RB - SF (at LAR)
|
|
427.
Willie Snead IV
WR - LV (vs . LAC)
|
|
428.
Richard Rodgers
TE - PHI (vs . DAL)
|
|
|
429.
Hunter Long
TE - MIA (vs . NE)
|
|
430.
James O'Shaughnessy
TE - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
431.
Tyler Conklin
TE - MIN (vs . CHI)
|
|
|
432.
Shi Smith
WR - CAR (at TB)
|
|
|
433.
Kene Nwangwu
RB - MIN (vs . CHI)
|
|
|
434.
Anthony Schwartz
WR - CLE (vs . CIN)
|
|
|
435.
Ihmir Smith-Marsette
WR - MIN (vs . CHI)
|
|
436.
Trayveon Williams
RB - CIN (at CLE)
|
|
437.
Jeremy McNichols
RB - TEN (at HOU)
|
|
|
438.
Tamorrion Terry
WR - SEA (at ARI)
|
|
439.
Trenton Cannon
RB - CAR (at TB)
|
|
440.
Marcus Mariota
QB - LV (vs . LAC)
|
|
441.
Darren Fells
TE - DET (vs . GB)
|
|
442.
Brycen Hopkins
TE - LAR (vs . SF)
|
|
443.
Devonta Freeman
RB - BUF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
444.
Ameer Abdullah
RB - MIN (vs . CHI)
|
|
445.
Dion Lewis
RB - NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
446.
Isaiah McKenzie
WR - BUF (vs . NYJ)
|
|
447.
Adam Shaheen
TE - MIA (vs . NE)
|
|
448.
Jace Sternberger
TE - GB (at DET)
|
|
449.
Richie James Jr.
WR - SF (at LAR)
|
|
450.
Geoff Swaim
TE - TEN (at HOU)
|
|
|
451.
Gerrid Doaks
RB - MIA (vs . NE)
|
|
452.
Alex Collins
RB - SEA (at ARI)
|
|
453.
Chase McLaughlin
K - CLE (vs . CIN)
|
|
454.
Damiere Byrd
WR - CHI (at MIN)
|
|
455.
Trey Burton
TE - IND (at JAC)
|
|
456.
Andre Roberts
WR - HOU (vs . TEN)
|
|
457.
Patrick Laird
RB - MIA (vs . NE)
|
|
458.
Hunter Bryant
TE - DET (vs . GB)
|
|
|
459.
Andrew Jacas
K - SF (at LAR)
|
|
460.
Jakeem Grant Sr.
WR - MIA (vs . NE)
|
|
|
461.
Kenny Yeboah
TE - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
462.
Nick Boyle
TE - BAL (vs . PIT)
|
|
|
463.
Frank Darby
WR - ATL (vs . NO)
|
|
464.
Phillip Walker
QB - CAR (at TB)
|
|
465.
Jaylen Samuels
RB - PIT (at BAL)
|
|
466.
JaMycal Hasty
RB - SF (at LAR)
|
|
|
467.
Kelvin Harmon
WR - WAS (at NYG)
|
|
468.
Kahale Warring
TE - HOU (vs . TEN)
|
|
469.
Josh Oliver
TE - BAL (vs . PIT)
|
|
470.
Mohamed Sanu
WR - SF (at LAR)
|
|
471.
Travis Homer
RB - SEA (at ARI)
|
|
|
472.
Caleb Huntley
RB - ATL (vs . NO)
|
|
473.
Nick Vannett
TE - NO (at ATL)
|
|
474.
Chad Beebe
WR - MIN (vs . CHI)
|
|
475.
Jacoby Brissett
QB - MIA (vs . NE)
|
|
476.
Ryan Griffin
TE - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
477.
Taylor Heinicke
QB - WAS (at NYG)
|
|
478.
Ty Montgomery
RB - NO (at ATL)
|
|
479.
Justin Rohrwasser
K - FA (BYE)
|
|
480.
Albert Wilson
WR - MIA (vs . NE)
|
|
481.
Equanimeous St. Brown
WR - GB (at DET)
|
|
|
482.
Kylen Granson
TE - IND (at JAC)
|
|
483.
Olabisi Johnson
WR - MIN (vs . CHI)
|
|
|
484.
Tommy Tremble
TE - CAR (at TB)
|
|
485.
Antonio Callaway
WR - KC (at DEN)
|
|
|
486.
Jaelon Darden
WR - TB (vs . CAR)
|
|
|
487.
Pooka Williams Jr.
RB - CIN (at CLE)
|
|
488.
Chester Rogers
WR - TEN (at HOU)
|
|
489.
C.J. Ham
RB - MIN (vs . CHI)
|
|
|
490.
Gary Brightwell
RB - NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
491.
Cameron Batson
WR - TEN (at HOU)
|
|
492.
Mason Rudolph
QB - PIT (at BAL)
|
|
|
493.
Trey Ragas
RB - LV (vs . LAC)
|
|
494.
Blake Bell
TE - KC (at DEN)
|
|
|
495.
Seth Williams
WR - DEN (vs . KC)
|
|
496.
Ross Dwelley
TE - SF (at LAR)
|
|
497.
Alec Ingold
RB - LV (vs . LAC)
|
|
|
498.
Stevie Scott III
RB - NO (at ATL)
|
|
499.
Corey Clement
RB - NYG (vs . WAS)
|
|
500.
Cedrick Wilson
WR - DAL (at PHI)
|
|
501.
Michael Burton
RB - KC (at DEN)
|
|
502.
Patrick Ricard
RB,DT - BAL (vs . PIT)
|
|
|
503.
Chris Naggar
K - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
504.
Phillip Dorsett II
WR - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
|
505.
Dedrick Mills
RB - DET (vs . GB)
|
|
|
506.
Simi Fehoko
WR - DAL (at PHI)
|
|
507.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
WR - TEN (at HOU)
|
|
508.
Devin Asiasi
TE - NE (at MIA)
|
|
509.
Geronimo Allison
WR - DET (vs . GB)
|
|
510.
Aldrick Rosas
K - JAC (vs . IND)
|
|
511.
Dez Bryant
WR - BAL (vs . PIT)
|
|
|
512.
Demetric Felton
WR,RB - CLE (vs . CIN)
|
|
513.
Josiah Deguara
TE - GB (at DET)
|
|
514.
Kyle Allen
QB - WAS (at NYG)
|
|
|
515.
Cade Johnson
WR - SEA (at ARI)
|
|
516.
Johnny Mundt
TE - LAR (vs . SF)
|
|
517.
Braxton Berrios
WR - NYJ (at BUF)
|
|
518.
DeAndre Washington
RB - MIA (vs . NE)
|
|
519.
Reggie Bonnafon
RB - CAR (at TB)
|