Last week, Jon Machota of Dallas Morning News dropped this gem on us:
Do Romo and Witten have another 4-5 seasons together in Dallas? Jason Witten: "If we do it like last year we can."
— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) May 17, 2015
Initial reaction may have been “That’s cute, but not happening – you guys are too old for another 4-5 seasons.” (Full Disclosure: this is much different from my initial reaction of “Ahh! Yes! 10 more seasons please!). I did you the favor of doing the research and regardless of how the Cowboys do things this year, 4-5 more seasons is a definite in my book for the NFL’s favorite BFF’s.
Let’s start with Tony Romo and where he compares on the old man scale with other current old man quarterbacks (I left Josh McCown out for obvious reasons):
NAME | D.O.B. | AGE |
Ben Roethlisberger | 3/2/82 | 33 |
Philip Rivers | 12/8/81 | 33 |
Eli Manning | 1/3/81 | 34 |
Tony Romo | 4/21/80 | 35 |
Carson Palmer | 12/27/79 | 35 |
Drew Brees | 1/15/79 | 36 |
Tom Brady | 8/3/77 | 37 |
Peyton Manning | 3/24/76 | 39 |
Let’s take a further look at the more important factors – career stats:
NAME | YDs | TDs | COMP% | SEASONS STARTED |
Ben Roethlisberger | 39,057 | 251 | 63.7 | 11 |
Philip Rivers | 36,655 | 252 | 64.7 | 9 |
Eli Manning | 39,755 | 259 | 59 | 11 |
Tony Romo | 33,270 | 242 | 65.2 | 9 |
Carson Palmer | 35,365 | 224 | 62.6 | 11 |
Drew Brees | 56,033 | 396 | 66.2 | 13 |
Tom Brady | 53,258 | 392 | 63.5 | 14 |
Peyton Manning | 69,691 | 530 | 65.5 | 16 |
A few conclusions can be drawn from this. The first thing to note is Romo’s seasons as a starter. He may be 35 years old, but he, along with Philip Rivers, have two season less as starters than their counterparts. That’s two seasons of not getting hit. Getting hit less can inherently extend a quarterback’s career. Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Peyton Manning have 4+ more seasons under their belt than Romo. Drew Brees is a pinnacle of health in this category, but both Brady and Manning have missed significant time due to injury. Brady missed all but one game in 2008 while Peyton missed the entire 2011 season. By comparison, Romo appeared in six games in 2011, and has missed just two regular season games since then.
However, the narrative is always about his back and when it will break down. After the successful 2014 season, which started with Romo coming off of two back surgeries within than two years, this narrative should finally be put to rest. Tony Romo just turned 35 years old, and has less time on the field than most. Regarding age, another four seasons would put Tony Romo right in Peyton Manning territory.
The tight end sample size is much smaller, but let’s take a look where old man Witten fares compared to other current tight ends and, of course, Tony Gonzalez:
NAME | D.O.B. | AGE |
Heath Miller | 10/22/82 | 32 |
Jason Witten | 5/6/82 | 33 |
Ben Watson | 12/18/80 | 34 |
Antonio Gates | 6/18/80 | 34 |
Tony Gonzalez | 2/27/76 | 39/37 ret. |
A further look at their respective career stats:
NAME | REC | YDS | TDs | SEASONS STARTED |
Heath Miller | 532 | 6,034 | 43 | 10 |
Jason Witten | 943 | 10,502 | 57 | 12 |
Ben Watson | 360 | 4,138 | 32 | 10 |
Antonio Gates | 788 | 10,014 | 99 | 12 |
Tony Gonzalez | 1,325 | 15,127 | 111 | 16 |
Witten and Gates are the “veterans” of the above crew with 12 full season as a starter, aside from the one game Jason Witten has missed in his entire career as a rookie. Heath Miller and Ben Watson have seen much less usage than Witten and Gates in addition to two fewer seasons, despite Witten and Miller being right around the same age and Watson two years older. Witten and Gates are the two tight ends in this category who have the best chances of extending their careers into Tony Gonzalez territory. Another four seasons would put Witten right on the mark. If I’m are going to compare Tony Romo to Peyton Manning in terms of how many season he can play, it’s fair to compare Jason Witten to Tony Gonzalez in the same sense. After all, doesn’t every quarterback want to have a Manning career and every tight end a Gonzalez career?
With Tony Romo coming off one of his best professional and fantasy seasons there is no reason you should hesitate to draft him as your quarterback this season. The absence of DeMarco Murray should translate into more throwing for Romo. Jason Witten may not be a top tier tight end, but he is consistent in PPR formats and has weeks where he puts up double digit numbers.
Witten was spot on with his 4-5 season hope. The numbers show both Romo and Witten should have no problem playing another 4-5 seasons together. I just hope you are as excited for these two to stick around as I am.
Feel free to hit me up anytime to talk all things fantasy @JerseyJen22. Click here for more early 2015 draft prep.