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Fantasy Baseball: Examining Slow Starts

Stephen Strasburg has been a serious disappointment so far this season

Stephen Strasburg has been a serious disappointment so far this season

The following are a list of highly-owned fantasy baseball players that fantasy owners should be wary of. These are players that have had one or more of the following issues:

  • They’ve had recent subpar seasons.
  • They’ve had up-and-down seasons continually throughout their careers.
  • They’ve consistently been on and off of the DL.

Don’t be fooled by these players when they get it going. They simply cannot be trusted, and we’ll look at why these players will be an ongoing headaches this season for all fantasy owners.

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Stats are through 5/16/15. Player ownership percentages are from Yahoo.

SP – Stephen Strasburg – WAS (owned: 98%)

2015 Stats: IP: 35.2, W: 2, K: 35, ERA: 6.06; WHIP: 1.71

Strasburg has not looked like himself so far this season and has already experienced shoulder issues. He is currently healthy and has said that bad mechanics and poor pitch selection is mostly to blame for his poor start to the season, but many fantasy baseball owners can’t help but think that there might be an underlying problem that hasn’t been addressed just yet. Flashbacks to seasons past where he has had prior health issues related to his arm are bound to come up. Another alarming issue he seems to be suffering from is his lack of effectiveness in one of his key pitches (his changeup) in most of his 2015 outings. It’s anyone’s guess as to whether or not the low-3.oo’s ERA and well over 200 strikeouts version of Strasburg will show up this season. My guess is that it won’t. I can see him either getting hurt for a long period of time or continually struggling throughout the season with very short stretches of success.

My Prediction – IP: 99.1, W: 5, K: 98, ERA: 5.90; WHIP: 1.65

SS  – Jose Reyes – TOR (owned: 95%)

2015 StatsAB: 60, R: 6, HR: 0, RBI: 7, SB: 3; AVG: .250

The soon-to-be 32-year-old Reyes’ last truly productive season was in 2012. He’s now clearly a shell of his former self, no longer the All-Star shortstop he used to be in the mid-2000s up until the early 2010s.  He’s currently been out since late April with a rib injury and should be back in late May, but in all honesty, he wasn’t all that productive before his injury. There was a time where Reyes was a lock to finish in the top three every year in stolen bases and was a sure thing to bat close to, or over .300, but asking him to do that now is wishful thinking. Now would be a good time to see what you can get for him via trade. There’s a chance his ownership percentage will drop quite a bit over the next couple of months (lowering his trade value in the process) if he doesn’t get it going at the plate or steal many bases before the summer hits.

My Prediction – AB: 501, R: 77, HR: 6, RBI: 44, SB: 26; AVG: .279

3B – Pablo Sandoval – BOS (owned: 94%)

2015 Stats: AB: 99, R: 17, HR: 5, RBI: 16; AVG: .277

When the Red Sox signed Sandoval this offseason, there was an assumption that Fenway’s short porch in right field would greatly benefit him when he faces right-handed pitchers. That was too big of an assumption to make. Sandoval has only hit 20-plus home runs twice in seven (now entering number eight) seasons. He might hit close to .300, his RBI numbers might even improve a little bit and he might score a few more runs than he typically does this season. But I absolutely don’t buy into him hitting for 20-plus homers in 2015. Don’t assume he will finish off the season as a top-10 third baseman.

My Prediction – AB: 579, R: 70, HR: 16, RBI: 80; AVG: .279

OF – Jason Heyward – STL (owned: 91%)

2015 Stats: AB: 131, R: 21, HR: 3, RBI: 10; SB: 4; AVG: .252

Yes, Hayward has a solid 21 runs scored and a respectable four stolen bases so far, but he’s been doing what’s been expected of him in all other meaningful statistical areas for a couple of seasons now; three HR, 10 RBI, .252 batting average. When the Cardinals traded for him in the offseason, they were hoping to see a player that would finally reach his 20-plus home run and 80-plus RBI potential again. It’s still not looking like that’s the version of Heyward they’re going to get this season. He is still very young (25 ), and the potential might still be there, but it likely won’t be this season. I just don’t see enough flashes yet to make me think he could finally hit the way he used. He may still get 20-plus stolen bases, score 80-plus runs and hit at least 10-15 home runs (while driving in around 60-70 RBI), but I don’t see his average improving much. That equates to a player that could be on and off of waiver wires throughout the season.

My Prediction – AB: 565, R: 82, HR: 14, RBI: 70, SB: 17; AVG: .258

– Yadier Molina – STL (owned: 89%)

2015 Stats: AB: 120, R: 7, HR: 0, RBI: 15, SB: 0; AVG: .283

Throughout any given season in the past four-to-five, Molina has been one of the top-10 owned catchers in most fantasy leagues. That might have made sense through the 2013 season, when he was still hitting well over .300, knocking out double-digit home runs, and getting close to or even getting double-digit steals. But he is nowhere near as good of a player he once was. Molina will be 33 years old in July, and he’s been showing every bit of his age since the 2014 campaign. It shouldn’t surprise anyone, because he’s now in his twelfth season in the majors and has been St. Louis’ starting catcher since 2005. Overall, he still gets major respect from fantasy owners considering his ownership, but it seems undue at this point, especially as several catchers will return to starting lineups in the coming weeks. Fantasy owners won’t get the type of production they’re used to from a name like Molina. He’s isn’t the worst catcher to own in fantasy leagues by any stretch of the imagination, but don’t expect numbers that should rank him in the top 10 by season’s end. Shop him to see if his name inflates his value with your league mates.

My Prediction – AB: 425, R: 45, HR: 5, RBI: 48, SB: 2AVG: 278.

CD Hill is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from CD, check out his archive.

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