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Early ADP Report: 9 Undervalued Players

Jun 10, 2015
Latavius Murray's value would vastly change if he were declared the starter in Oakland

Latavius Murray’s value would vastly change if he were declared the starter in Oakland

The NFL season is still a few months away, but that doesn’t mean it’s too early to think about fantasy football. Our Consensus ADP is available, and we’ve seen players move up and down over the last month.

As with any set of rankings, you may or may not agree with them. To evaluate this, we’ve asked the experts to name who they feel is undervalued at each position according to their ADP.

FantasyPros Draft Wizard

Q: Based off of our Consensus ADP, which RB, QB and WR is currently the most undervalued in drafts?

Running Backs

Latavius Murray (RB) RaidersLatavius Murray, Raiders
ADP: #49 Overall | #20 RB

What’s your take: Is he undervalued?

“If Latavius Murray was named the clear Oakland starter today, he’d move towards the top-10 in ADP among all RBs. You saw what he was capable of late last season—he looked like the next coming of Adrian Peterson. He’s a 6’2”+/225+ monster of a Running Back who runs a 4.4+ 40-time with high-end agility, a big bench press (22 reps) and a nice vertical (36”). He is built to be a superstar. I get we all fear Oakland will mess this up somehow, and that’s a legit/very real fear, but are we really still scared of Trent Richardson stealing anyone’s job or touches? Roy Helu is nice, and will get some action, but he has not been a feature RB but for a brief glimpse his rookie season. We think Murray wins this job outright, because he’s just too damn good, and with his elite speed and terrific hands as a receiver—he could be a shock top-5 PPR RB for 2015–if he can stay healthy, which is a concern, but don’t we say that about all RBs?”
R.C. Fischer (Fantasy Football Metrics)

Arian Foster, Texans
ADP: #15 Overall | #9 RB

What’s your take: Is he undervalued?

“It may be a hard sell to say at RB9 Arian Foster is undervalued, but I wouldn’t blink if he ended up as the highest scoring RB this season and would rather make a play for him than Matt Forte, LeSean McCoy and even Eddie Lacy who are ahead of him. Of course, injury concerns are keeping Foster depressed below those guys, but on the field, his average weekly finish was RB9.4 in PPR leagues in 2014, behind only Le’Veon, Murray and C.J. Anderson. Houston ran 51.9 percent of their offensive plays, most in the league and haven’t really upgraded their passing game. Given that to go along with their expected defensive improvement and supremely light schedule, I’ll take Foster at the turn all day with another alpha talent.”
Rich Hribar (The Fake Football)

Theo Riddick (RB) LionsTheo Riddick, Lions
ADP: #NR Overall | #NR RB

What’s your take: Is he undervalued?

“The “larger role” Riddick had last season was still forgettable from a fantasy aspect, and, at best, he was a bye-week pick-up if you were desperate or in anything bigger than 12-team leagues. In terms of what makes him underrated this upcoming year though, you have to look at the games and his production when Reggie Bush was out from one of his normal 153 ailments. Take a look at Week 6 and Week 8, and you’ll see that he was essentially Reggie Bush. Granted, Riddick’s value is probably geared a bit more towards PPR leagues, but don’t let that take away from the fact that production is production. And what I mean by that is Shane Vereen (during the times when Bill Belichick wasn’t trolling the fantasy population), Danny Woodhead, and even Darren Sproles were considered solid flex plays and most certainly rosterable on your bench. And there’s no reason why Theo Riddick can’t be either.”
Jason Longfellow (Razzball)

Wide Receivers

Eric Decker, Jets
ADP: #100 Overall | #39 WR

What’s your take: Is he undervalued?

“Apparently nobody likes Eric Decker. I believe last season was a proxy for his floor, and all it took for that to happen was a season long hamstring injury and attachment to an offense that ranked 25th in yards per drive. In 2014 he still notched eight top-36 scoring weeks and six top-24 ones and in Week 17, you got a reminder of the ceiling he still possesses. I’m not concerned about Geno Smith because of all the players Smith has targeted 50 or more times over his first two seasons, his 9.5 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A) when targeting Decker is a full two yards better than anyone else and right on par with the 10.0 AY/A Peyton Manning had targeting Decker while in Denver. Brandon Marshall is now 31, coming off of his third hip surgery and going 18 receiver spots ahead of Decker who is WR39. I’ll take Decker today to not only to best his ADP, but to outscore Marshall as well.”
Rich Hribar (The Fake Football)

Brandon LaFell, Patriots
ADP: #102 Overall | #40 WR

What’s your take: Is he undervalued?

“My long-time readers likely believe this section got mixed up with some other analyst’s work. I’ve disliked Brandon LaFell, as a talent, since he came to the NFL out of LSU. However, I realize Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are magic fairy dust that makes all things better for fantasy. After his first two games of doing nothing for his new team last season (0 rec. on 6 targets), LaFell and Brady found chemistry in their final 14 regular-season games: LaFell averaged 9.8 FF PPG (15.2 PPR) in that stretch on 5.3 receptions, 68.1 yards. and 0.50 TDs per game. LaFell is not a major threat to become a top-10 fantasy WR, but he’s a much better value than his current #40+ ranking. LaFell may actually be stable/better with Jimmy Garoppolo for the first four games because Garoppolo isn’t likely as attached to Julian Edelman as Brady is, and Garoppolo likes to work downfield a little more than he does dinking and dunking. I’ve never been a LaFell guy, but I can’t deny his 2014 fit with Brady. There’s no reason to assume Brady will abandon their connection in 2015… and what if it gets even better?”
R.C. Fischer (Fantasy Football Metrics)

Dontrelle Inman, Chargers
ADP: #NR Overall | #NR WR

What’s your take: Is he undervalued?

“If there’s one thing going for Dontrelle Inman, it’s Philip Rivers. If there’s two things going for him, it’s that Philip Rivers loves spreading out the love. With the departure of Eddie Royal, there is a gap that could be potentially filled by Inman, but the signing of Stevie Johnson almost assuredly means that he will be on the outside of the depth chart looking in. But the current lack of opportunity is far from a damning fate. Keenan Allen isn’t going anywhere, but counting on Malcom Floyd for an entire season seems folly, and there are questions with what Stevie Johnson can bring to the table. Starting only two games last season, he will most assuredly get more opportunities with a year in the team’s system, and even with such a small sample, Inman put up per-game averages that were on par with the rest of the Chargers’ receiver core…”
Jason Longfellow (Razzball)

Quarterbacks

Nick Foles, Rams
ADP: #198 Overall | #27 QB

What’s your take: Is he undervalued?

“He’s the #27 ranked QB via the latest ADP rankings…10 spots behind Jameis Winston, are you kidding me? What else does Nick Foles have to do to earn an ounce of respect? In his last 16 starts, he sports a 13-3 record with 34 TDs/12 INTs and 4,432 yards passing and two rushing TDs—18.5+ Fantasy PPG (4pts per pass TD)! In his last 16 games, he’s posted three 300+ yard passing games, and three 400+ yard efforts. I know, it’s all Chip Kelly, right? Why is it Michael Vick and Matt Barkley have losing records/flopped in this system… and Mark Sanchez blew the division and the playoffs, floundering down the stretch? I thought Kelly ‘makes’ these QBs into instant ‘winners’? All QBs, but Foles, have under-whelmed under Kelly in the NFL to-date. Foles now moves to a tougher division, but now has a fast track dome/turf to work with. He should not be the QB27 in ADP among all fantasy QBs. Foles can push towards the top-12 with St. Louis.”
R.C. Fischer (Fantasy Football Metrics)

Carson Palmer, Cardinals
ADP: #183 Overall | #24 QB

What’s your take: Is he undervalued?

“Palmer at QB24 is far too low and a freebie pickup for the streaming crowd. He’s coming off of a major injury and will be 36 years old this season, but is reportedly at full strength. We only got to see him for six games in 2014, but he was 10th in points per game (17.6) and eighth in passing points per attempt (.460) out of all quarterbacks. In the five games he finished, he averaged 19.2 points per game and was QB5, QB16, QB13, QB10 and QB7 those weeks. Given the ambiguity of their offense, he’s a play on everyone and is also the cheapest piece.”
Rich Hribar (The Fake Football)

Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings
ADP: #158 Overall | #19 QB

What’s your take: Is he undervalued?

“I’m still a huge fan of Norv Turner and what he can do with quarterbacks. There is definitely a growth factor to think about, and no matter what you think the potential is for Bridgewater (I admit, I was skeptical for a while), the numbers don’t lie. If you split last season into halves, there’s clear improvement across the board, and I especially like that his “long” average raised substantially as the season went on (the touchdowns and rating followed suit). It’s sometimes folly to cherry pick stats and then pro-rate them into a full season, but no one said I was perfect. If you were to take Bridgewater’s second half and pretend it was a full season, he’d have 3,648 yards and a 26/16 TD/INT ratio. That was essentially Jay Cutler, who finished with 256.3 Points and the 14th ranked quarterback last year…”
Jason Longfellow (Razzball)

Thank you to our experts for contributing their thoughts, you can follow them on Twitter here.

Rich Hribar (The Fake Football)
R.C. Fischer (Fantasy Football Metrics)
Jason Longfellow (Razzball)

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