How will LeSean McCoy’s injury impact Week 16?
LeSean McCoy’s first season in Buffalo may end as it started, with a bad wheel.
McCoy first suffered a nagging hamstring injury during the preseason and tried playing through it, only to make it worse and miss two games after three weeks.
Now, he’s on the shelf again with a torn MCL that’s expected to keep him out of this week’s game against Dallas. He’s considered week-to-week and could return for the finale against the Jets, but the Bills would be foolish to rush him back for a meaningless game.
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Promising rookie Karlos Williams is next in line, and “promising” may be an understatement. He’s averaging a whopping 6.0 yards a carry in his first NFL season, in which he tied a league record with touchdowns in his first six games. However, he has not scored since and has been banged up a couple times himself, missing two games with a shoulder injury before returning last week at Washington.
During that TD streak, he started one game, Week 4 against the Giants. While he scored on a reception, his rushing line was one of his worst of the year; 18 carries for 40 yards.
Williams should fare better against Dallas. While the Cowboys allow just 4.0 yards a carry (tied for 11st-best in the league), game flow usually works against them. Their offense has scored in the 20s just once in the past six weeks, allowing fourth-quarter mop-up carries that Williams has thrived on this year. His 12-carry, 110-yard performance in a blowout win over Miami in Week 3 might be more indicative of what he can do. The Cowboys also have allowed 14 rushing touchdowns, tied for fourth-most.
Williams has an RB2 floor and RB1 upside if you have him for championship week, and his $5,400 price tag on FanDuel is enticing.
Don’t discount Mike Gillislee, however. He has his own unlikely touchdown streak going, with scores in his past two games. Last Sunday, he shot 60 yards into the end zone and outsnapped Williams, 19-13.
In three games after being activated from Buffalo’s practice squad, the third-year runner has 146 yards on just 14 carries. That’s a 6.6 average even if you don’t count the 60-yarder. Gillislee also brings receiving skills that Williams hasn’t shown. He’s been targeted four times in 42 snaps and has caught all four, while Williams has just nine targets in 190 snaps, catching six of them. McCoy got about four-to-five targets a game, and Gillislee could pick those up, especially with Robert Woods done for the year. Only two teams have allowed more receptions by running backs than the Cowboys. Yes, it’s a small sample size, but Gillislee is in the PPR flex conversation.
As for McCoy, he looked in prime form when he was healthy this year, living up to his Twitter handle of @CutonDime25. From Weeks 6 through 15, Shady averaged 4.7 yards a carry. He was one of six running backs selected to the Pro Bowl on Tuesday night.
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On the downside, he found the end zone just five times, and his lack of durability doesn’t bode well for his future value. He’ll turn 28 next summer, an age at which most running backs are past their peak. He now has more than 2,000 career touches, playoffs included. With Williams up and coming, McCoy’s days as a workhorse may be over.
Keith Kraska is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Keith, check out his archive.
