James White has a low floor but provides a high ceiling on this weekend’s short playoff slate
Whether constructing a cash game lineup or preparing for tournament play, you will need to be able to sort out the value options that are available each week. These plays can arise from a variety of reasons ranging from an injury to simple mispricing. Finding the diamonds in the rough can be the single difference between you and a high-scoring lineup.
The Conference Championship Round of playoff games brings us two final games to attack in DFS. As expected with just two games, taking chances you normally wouldn’t take will be crucial in constructing your lineup. Let’s look at a few value plays for the Conference Championship Round.
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Quarterbacks
Peyton Manning DEN vs. NE $6,100
Manning faces a New England secondary who produced a mixed bag of results last week against the Chiefs. They had some issues against a weaker passing offense and Logan Ryan stood out as a cornerback that uncharacteristically struggled last week. He allowed eight of 10 passes to be completed for 101 yards and a touchdown. Manning threw for 222 yards in last week’s victory over the Steelers, and he likely could have produced more if not for some dropped passes. The Broncos only allowed one sack last week and that was due to a poor block from a running back, not from the offensive line. If the Broncos can give Manning the time he needs (per Pro Football Focus, Alex Smith had 3.13 seconds per pass attempt last week against NE), he could very well deliver a performance good enough to pay off his salary.
Running Backs
Ronnie Hillman DEN vs. NE $4,450
There are a couple of things to like about Hillman despite a matchup looming against a Patriots’ defense that held the Chiefs to 90 yards last week. C.J. Anderson appears to have the hot hand as of late, but he had one less carry than Hillman and accumulated 34 of his 72 rushing yards on one play. Hillman will likely have lower ownership levels this week and, as a result, I don’t mind pivoting away from the popular play in lineups this week.
James White NE @ DEN $4,200
In terms of dollars per point, White checks in as the second-best value among running backs this week. White led the Patriots’ backfield in snaps last week as New England engaged in a pass-first approach. The Patriots have no semblance of a running game and with their quick-passing game fueling the offense, White should be on the field plenty. There’s risk involved here, but White’s breakaway speed makes him a fine candidate to bust a long run at any time. He’s worth taking a flier on.
Wide Receivers
John Brown ARI @ CAR $4,800
Larry Fitzgerald will be the popular play this week and for good reason, as he lines up in the slot for nearly 60% of his snaps, thus avoiding Josh Norman. That being said, Brown’s value is derived from his big-play ability, and I think the Cardinals will look to create a few situations where Brown isn’t locked up with Norman. The entire Panthers’ secondary had a tough time in coverage last week, and I like the Cardinals to capitalize on that this week.
Jerricho Cotchery CAR vs. ARI $4,200
Cotchery has hauled in at least three catches in six out of the last eight games and he should draw plenty of Jerraud Powers this week. According to Pro Football Focus, Powers ranks 74th among all cornerbacks. Even though you’re chasing a touchdown here, this is the kind of risk you will need to embrace this week.
Tight Ends
Owen Daniels DEN vs. NE $4,000
After Rob Gronkowski and Greg Olsen, the tight end position gets ugly quick. While Daniels’ volume and production has been all over the place this season, there’s nothing wrong with hoping for a touchdown at his low price. Make no mistake, Daniels is the clear third option in the pecking order among receivers, but this is another area where you will need to roll the dice.
Defense/Special Teams
Arizona Cardinals @ CAR $2,850
The Cardinals are the cheapest defense on the board this week, and I’ll go against the grain in saying they will slow down the Carolina offense. The Panthers need to run the football to be effective, and the Cardinals’ run defense came up strong last week. Something will have to give, and I feel that the Arizona pass rush will return this week and make things difficult for Cam Newton.
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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.
