Alex Smith could fare well against the Patriots’ middling pass defense
Whether constructing a cash game lineup or preparing for tournament play, you will need to be able to sort out the value options that are available each week. These plays can arise from a variety of reasons ranging from an injury to simple mispricing. Finding the diamonds in the rough can be the single difference between you and a high-scoring lineup.
The NFL Divisional Round of playoff games brings us another four games to choose from and a much smaller player pool to work with. As a result, you will need to take some chances that you might not normally make when constructing your roster. Let’s dig for some value plays in the NFL Divisional Round weekend.
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Quarterbacks
Alex Smith KC @ NE $5,650
Short of Ben Roethlisberger not being able to play, Smith is the cheapest option available at quarterback this weekend. He also carries some value as he checks in as the third-best option among quarterbacks in dollars per point.
If the Chiefs want to have any chance at upsetting the Patriots, they will need to create turnovers on defense and Alex Smith will need to perform on offense. The Patriots have been average at defending the pass this season, and while a lot of that could be due to teams having to play from behind, this is the area to exploit rather than their run defense.
Peyton Manning DEN vs. PIT $6,300
Manning faces a beatable Pittsburgh secondary this weekend and despite projecting as the lowest producer among quarterbacks, I think he’s a viable GPP play this week. I know Manning wasn’t under center during their Week 15 matchup, but Demaryius Thomas had a great game while Emmanuel Sanders posted a monster line. Manning may be in the final stage of his career, but he is worth targeting this weekend.
Running Backs
Fitzgerald Toussaint PIT @ DEN $4,100
I’d be surprised if DeAngelo Williams plays this week and if he doesn’t, Toussaint would likely draw a start. Toussaint recorded a respectable 13.8 FantasyAces points last week against a tough Cincinnati defense.
He will face another tough assignment against the Broncos, who allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game this season. That being said, volume trumps a lot of risks, especially at the running back position, and he may be a necessary play to spend at other positions.
James White NE vs. KC $4,300
This is a tough spot for White against a stout Chiefs’ defense, but his role in the passing game helps to offset some of this risk. In terms of sheer value, he’s the third-best play among running backs this week when taking into account dollars spent per projected point.
White averaged seven targets per game over the last five weeks of the season, and he scored a touchdown in three of those contests. He is a cheap way to get some exposure to this high-powered offense this week.
Charcandrick West KC @ NE $4,550
Spencer Ware saw more touches than West last week, but I still think there’s some merit in utilizing West this weekend. If the Chiefs are forced to play from behind, West could be utilized more in the passing game.
As a result, I have West projected slightly higher than Ware. This is a gamble to try and make a decision based upon expected game flow, but I think this is a calculated risk worth taking with such a small player pool.
Wide Receivers
Jermaine Kearse SEA @ CAR $4,500
Kearse has been targeted at least four times in six out of the last eight games and despite ranking behind Tyler Lockett and Doug Baldwin, I don’t mind using him this week. The Panthers’ secondary is depleted due to injury, and Kearse could see some time against Robert McClain, who was on his couch four weeks ago. This play is dependent on a touchdown, but I like Kearse to score one this week.
Chris Conley KC @ NE $3,500
This is somewhat dependent on the status of Jeremy Maclin as Conley could see a lot of Leonard Johnson, who has been struggling. Per Pro Football Focus, Johnson grades out very poorly among all cornerbacks, and this would be one of the areas the Chiefs will want to exploit. If Maclin sits, Conley could be locked up with Malcolm Butler or Logan Ryan, which would be a big hit to his value.
J.J. Nelson ARI vs. GB $3,900
This is a stretch, but I am willing to roll the dice on the rookie speedster this week as he is always a sneaky bet for a touchdown. With three receivers ahead of him, Nelson is nothing more than a flier, but you need differentiation when playing GPPs with so few choices available.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce KC @ NE $4,800
Kelce checks in as the top value among all tight ends this weekend, and he’s projected as the second-highest tight end play overall. If Maclin can’t play this week, Kelce should be leaned on early and often by Smith and he could be in line for a big day. He will likely have high ownership levels, but it might make sense to lock him into your lineups.
Richard Rodgers GB @ ARI $4,350
Rodgers has by far the easiest matchup among all tight ends, but he doesn’t see a high amount of targets. This bumps him down to the fourth-best value in terms of dollars per point, but his salary relief in roster construction could be useful.
Rodgers finished the regular season strong, but he only saw four targets last week, and this could drive ownership levels very low. You’ll likely need a touchdown from Rodgers to justify using him, but he could be a key component of your tournament lineup this week.
Defense/Special Teams
Arizona Cardinals vs. GB $2,950
This defense will likely have very high ownership levels this week, so it might be a prudent move to fade the Cardinals in tournaments. For cash games, it’s tough to eschew the matchup, especially after seeing what they did to this offense just three weeks ago on their way to 33 FantasyAces points.
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Adam Sutton is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Adam, follow him @DraftStars_Adam. You can find more of Adam’s work at DraftStars.net.
