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Bounce-Back Candidates: Infielders

Bounce-Back Candidates: Infielders
Pablo_Sandoval_Red_Sox

The Panda feasts in even years. Could 2016 be the year for another Pablo Sandoval bounce back?

This article continues the series of possible bounce-back candidates looking at infielders who disappointed in 2015. I believe they will be much better fantasy assets in the 2016 season.

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Jonathan Lucroy

Lucroy had a disappointing 2015 season after being drafted as the second catcher behind Buster Posey. He finished as the 16th best catcher according to the ESPN player rater, which was due, at least in, part to injury. The lost plate appearances explain a decline in counting stats, but the plunge in Lucroy’s average, which fell from .301 in 2014 to .264 in 2015, is very concerning. A certain part of that drop came from a drop in his BABIP, and while his overall batted ball profile didn’t change much, nothing in his profile jumped out as an oddity in his career trajectory. The bigger problem was the jump in strikeout rate Lucroy posted that was much higher than his rates from 2012-2014. Lucroy’s swinging strike rate rose slightly, but his track record is strong as a player with a high average. Due to aforementioned injuries, he battled last season, I am willing to gamble on Lucroy bouncing back this season. According to early data from NFBC drafts, Lucroy is being taken as the third catcher but with only the 108th overall pick, which leaves room for him to provide nice value.

Pablo Sandoval

I wrote about Hanley Ramirez in my last article, and as disappointing as his second half of the season was, Sandoval’s was even worse.  The result was his worst career average and home run output in a full season of at-bats. In terms of power, Sandoval’s HR/FB rate was his lowest since 2010 but was within one percent of his rate from both the 2014 and 2013 seasons. The real reason Sandoval’s power was lacking because of the change in his GB/FB rate, which rocketed from a career rate of 1.21 to 1.51 in the 2015 season. With drastic shifts like that, I am willing to believe that this rate will move back towards his career norm until he proves otherwise. That means I also believe his home run totals will move closer to his career norms.

Overall, expect Sandoval’s numbers to move towards, and possibly surpass his numbers while he was a Giant due to the excellent Red Sox offense. With that said Sandoval is entering post-hype sleeper status and could play a valuable role on your fantasy team as a corner infield option.

Freddie Freeman

Freeman posted his highest HR/FB rate since the 2010 season when he had just 24 plate appearances. His season was not derailed by a poor lineup surrounding him as many had feared entering the 2015 season and there is little reason to believe it will be derailed for the same reason in 2016. His approach didn’t change much at the plate as the only true threat in the Braves lineup. In fact, he didn’t see an uptick in strikeouts and actually saw more pitches in the strike zone.

With a return of health, I like Freeman to put together a very productive fantasy season. He is currently being drafted as the 10th first baseman in NFBC drafts and is currently ranked ninth in the Fantasypros Expert Consensus Rankings.  At his best, Freeman could be a top three first baseman, and with that said, he is one of my favorite bounce back targets.

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Here are those players in the outfield that I like to bounce back in 2016.

Daniel Marcus is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Daniel, check out his archive or follow him @danmarcus3

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