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Fantasy Baseball: Risers & Fallers (6/26 – 7/2)

Fantasy Baseball: Risers & Fallers (6/26 – 7/2)
Kendrys Morales

Kendrys Morales went crazy in June, posting an OPS north of 1.100

USA! USA! USA! Always gives me chills. Hope you all have a Happy Fourth of July. For you foreigners, be thankful for the early baseball games. Now, the Fourth of July holiday signifies the day when the Thirteen Colonies officially declared their independence from Great Britain. The ultimate power move. Which is what you should be doing for your fantasy teams, as the trade deadline for most will be arriving in a month or so. Now, throw those boxes of tea into the ocean and go get your Nathan’s hotdogs and become the Joey Chestnut of your league.

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RISERS

  • Kendrys Morales (DH – KC)
    17 hits, eight runs, six home runs, and 12 RBI. Of course, I sat him. Grrrrr. After a slow start to the season, Morales has been en fuego the last month batting .402/.453/.655. At the end of May, his batting average was .193. It is now at .267. That’s what they call regression folks. His numbers are now almost in-line with his career averages. A couple of splits for you daily folk. The switch-hitter is far more successful batting right-handed (.338) vs left-handed (.243) and is better at home (.310) vs. on the road (.227). Being only DH-eligible lowers his appeal, but Morales is a solid hitter in a pretty good lineup.
  • Bud Norris (SP – LAD)
    Six innings, two hits, zero earned runs, one walk, and eight strikeouts. With Clayton Kershaw hobbled by a back injury and placed on the DL, the Dodgers went out and acquired Norris from the Atlanta Braves. He did not disappoint in his Dodgers’ debut. On the season, he has a 3.89 ERA, 1.30 WHIP with 68 strikeouts in 76 1/3 innings. Most of the damage occurred the first month of the season when he allowed 22 earned runs in 22 2/3 innings. He spent May in the bullpen, then rejoined the starting rotation in June, allowing only seven earned runs in 30 1/3 innings. The righty throws a fastball that averages 93 mph and complements it with a slider and changeup. He’s prone to walking too many batters (3.52 career BB/9), but he’s also shown the ability to strikeout over a batter per inning. Chavez Ravine is a pitcher-friendly park and the Dodgers have a good team behind him, so there is definitely value here.
  • C.J. Cron (1B/DH – LAA)
    13 hits, six runs, three home runs, and 11 RBI. A massive game against the Red Sox in which he had six hits (two home runs), scored five runs, and drove in five. The righty is putting together a solid season batting .287 with nine home runs and 42 RBI. The OBP is .340 and he only strikes out 14% of the time. The BABIP is .307, so it’s not like he’s getting tremendously lucky. Not sexy, but he could be a solid option.
  • Danny Duffy (SP/RP – KC)
    Two great starts. Eight innings, six hits, two earned runs, and eight strikeouts in a win over the Cardinals. Five days later, 8 2/3 innings , seven hits, two earned runs, and eight strikeouts in a win over the Phillies. If you don’t know… This makes me all giddy inside. I wrote about Duffy here in May. I usually don’t toot my own horn, but I’ve taken so much pain with Duffy over the years that I just cannot stop myself. It’s always been about control for Duffy, and it looks like he’s figured things out. His BB/9 is a career-low 1.91, while maintaining a 10.39 K/9 rate. Batters are making less contact, both inside and outside the zone. He’s throwing first ball strikes at a career-best 62.8% and his swinging strike percentage is a robust 14.8%, which ranks him fifth in all of baseball. For perspective, Clayton Kershaw has a 16.1% rate. Since entering the rotation in May, Duffy has allowed more than three earned runs in only one start out of 10. I get the skepticism regarding Duffy, but a 48% ownership in ESPN leagues is criminal.
  • Danny Espinosa (2B/SS – WAS)
    Seven hits, six runs, three home runs, 11 RBI, and one stolen base. Due to Espinosa’s good play, Trea Turner is now taking reps in center field. Espinosa ain’t going anywhere folks. Dusty loves his defense and he’s batting too well. Batting eighth, in front of the pitcher, is a difficult place to be in the lineup but Espinosa is thriving there. His walk rate is a career-high 9.2% and his strikeout rate is a career-low 23.8%. He currently has 16 home runs, so that power pace is probably unsustainable, but he did hit 21 home runs in 2011. The BABIP is a low .251, but a big portion of that is probably due to the 16 home runs. F.P. Santangelo, color analyst for the Nationals, calls him the best eight-hitter in the game and just raves about his play. There’s definitely homerism there, but there’s definitely a valid argument to made for Espinosa. He’s hitting fewer ground balls, more fly balls, and his soft contact % is a career-low and hard contact % is a career-high. With that said, I wouldn’t go too crazy for Espinosa. At some point, he’s going to stop getting pitched to unless Dusty moves him up in the order.

FALLERS

  • Eduardo Rodriguez (SP – BOS)
    2 2/3 innings, 11 hits, nine earned runs, one walk, and two strikeouts in a loss to the Rays. Subsequently, he was demoted to Triple-A Pawtucket. Rodriguez is very talented, but the issue seems to be that he’s tipping his pitches.
  • Brandon Finnegan (RP/SP – CIN)
    2 1/3 innings, five hits, eight earned runs, five walks, and two strikeouts in a loss to the Nationals. There really isn’t much to like about Finnegan this season. His K/9 is under 7 and BB/9 is over 4. His xFIP is almost a run higher than his ERA. He doesn’t throw hard AND his BABIP is a low .253. I’d rather light firecrackers with my mouth than run Finnegan out there.
  • Salvador Perez (C – KC)
    Three hits and one RBI. Just a slump, as Perez is still batting .281 with 12 home runs. He is striking out a career-high 24% of the time and the toll of playing so many games over the years could break him down at any moment. With that said, he’s still one of the top fantasy catchers in the game.
  • Danny Valencia (3B/OF – OAK)
    Five hits and one run scored. Some regression was in store after the scorching May and June months for Valencia. The BABIP is still high at .361, so some more could be in store. Everything else looks fine, though, and he’s still batting in the heart of the A’s lineup.

Stan Son is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Stan, check out his archive and follow him @Stan_Son.

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