Bob Lung breaks down which consistent quarterbacks are going undervalued this draft season.
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Every year as fantasy owners head into their drafts, they are always looking for the “sleepers” or undervalued players. The Clutch Games system identifies undervalued players that most systems can’t. These are the players who are consistent week after week but don’t normally have huge games. These players slip down and can be drafted at great value.
I’m going to break these players into three different sections based on their ADP. The sections will consist of Early Picks (Rounds 1-to-4), Middle Picks (Rounds 5-to-9) and Late Picks (Rounds 10 and higher). I will identify those picks who are undervalued based on their current ADP. This way if you want to pick a player early, you can and still get good value based on what round you draft them. Or you can wait until the middle or late rounds and get great value just as easily. It’s your call!
Let’s start with the quarterbacks.
Early Round Picks (Rounds 1 – 4)
Andrew Luck (IND)
Luck’s current ADP is right around the end of Round 4. His injury-filled 2015 season has many Fantasy owners cautious about drafting him too soon. However, last season he was 6-for-7 in Clutch Games in the games he played for an 86% Clutch Ranking. When you combine that second-place ranking last year with his first-place ranking in 2014, you have a top quarterback who is being undervalued in this year’s draft. If he’s sitting there at the end of the fourth round, you can draft him without hesitation.
Russell Wilson (SEA)
Wilson’s current ADP is also near the end of the fourth round or early fifth round. His overall Clutch Rating in 2015 was only 69% (which ranked him fifth). However, his eight straight Clutch Games at the end of the season shows what life without Marshawn Lynch may mean for Wilson’s fantasy output in 2016. If he would have matched those numbers in the first half of the season, he would have outscored MVP, Cam Newton, in total fantasy points. He may be worth drafting over Aaron Rodgers, but Rodgers will probably be gone before the fourth round while Wilson won’t.
Middle Round Picks (Rounds 5 – 9)
Blake Bortles (JAC)
Bortles broke out last season when no one expected it and ended the season as a QB1. He finished the season ranked fourth in total points and tied for fifth with Russell Wilson with a 69% Clutch Rating. He also ended 2015 with five Clutch Games in his last six played. His current ADP is around the QB8/pick 80 mark. This is great value if you want to wait on your quarterback this year until the middle rounds.
Carson Palmer (ARI)
Palmer is the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy quarterbacks after ending last season ranked No. 1 in consistency with an 88% Clutch Rating. He’s still healthy, as is the rest of his offense, and yet his current ADP is QB9/pick 90. Wow! For the past two seasons, Palmer has earned a Clutch Rating over 80%, and he still gets no respect from the Fantasy world. Well, let me tell you, we respect him greatly and will gladly draft him in Round 9 or 10.
Late Round Picks (Rounds 10 +)
Andy Dalton (CIN)
Dalton started 2015 red-hot with six straight Clutch Games. Injuries shortened his season to 13 games, but his 10 Clutch Games for a 77% Clutch Rating ranked him fourth overall in consistency. His offense remains mostly intact from last year and yet his current ADP is QB14/pick 115. He’s certainly worth picking as a backup to help with bye weeks or injuries.
Kirk Cousins (WAS)
After his “explosion” in the second half of the Bucs game in Week 7, Cousins earned a 70% Clutch Rating over his final 10 games. He heads into 2016 with his same offense from last year and the addition of first-round pick, Josh Doctson. Don’t be surprised if Cousins ends the season as a QB1.