Can Ameer Abdullah be trusted as a fantasy football starter?
Football is back! There is never a shortage of storylines throughout the NFL season, but before Week 1, they are at a fever pitch. The running back situations are questionable with several teams, but injuries have forced both the Chiefs and Seahawks hands at the position. Speaking of injuries, Rob Gronkowski was recently ruled out for this weekend, so the consensus top tight end will be missing frcom action. Of course, I’ll be keeping my eye on how all these situations play out, but here are five other questions that are begging to be answered in the first week of play.
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Is the Jaguars’ defense really improved?
The Jaguars defense is hardly fantasy relevant, but the caliber of the unit will dictate the fantasy value of nearly everyone on the offensive side of the ball. If the defense is actually improved as the preseason chatter has led us to believe, it could diminish the fantasy relevance of several Jaguars’ players.
Starting at the running back position, Chris Ivory has been a solid running back on the ground throughout his career but he isn’t especially gifted at catching passes out of the backfield. If the Jaguars are playing catchup a lot this season, T.J. Yeldon will likely be on the field more as a pass-catching back and his value will surpass that of Ivory.
Of the pass-catchers, Allen Robinson is probably safe no matter the state of the Jaguars defense, but if the Jaguars are playing from behind less this season, Julius Thomas and Allen Hurns will battle for targets. From Week 5 on last season, the week Thomas made his season debut, Thomas out-targeted Hurns 79 to 74. If the Jaguars are slinging the rock less, one or potentially both of Hurns and Thomas will struggle to remain fantasy relevant.
Regression seems inevitable for Blake Bortles regardless of the performance of the Jaguars’ defense, but if he is called upon less that regression becomes all but certain.
We aren’t likely to get a fair read of the Jaguars defense this week as they face an offense with incredible potential for explosiveness in the Packers. However, if they are able to limit the Packers’ offense, it could be a warning sign to find a contingency plan if you are relying on Bortles, Ivory, Hurns, or Thomas in starting positions on your fantasy team.
How Will Dez Bryant Perform?
It’s old news that Tony Romo is hurt and the hype on Dak Prescott took off before his injury. However, ADP data is calling the fantasy community’s collective bluff on the supposed trust already in Prescott as Bryant’s ADP has fallen from 1.11 overall on August 26th, the day of Tony Romo’s injury, to 2.06 as of September 9th.
That said, it’s pretty apparent that the fantasy community is looking at the situation in Dallas and deciding it may be better to view the passing game from afar. Bryant’s splits with and without Romo have been circulating Twitter and the conclusion is that his PPR points per game drop from 17.5 points with Romo to 11.7 without him. However, these results come with the disclaimer that six of the eight games that Bryant played without Romo came last season when Bryant was battling a foot injury and he obviously wasn’t his normal self.
The Cowboys will likely get into a high scoring and fast paced affair with the Giants this weekend and that means Bryant should see plenty of targets. Unlike the Jaguars, who were discussed above, the Cowboys’ offense doesn’t have an abundance of receiving options. That said, even if Bryant and Prescott don’t impress with efficiency, pure volume will carry the day for Bryant.
Are Melvin Gordon and Ameer Abdullah trustworthy starting options?
Both of these second-year backs entered last season with an incredible amount of hype. However, the duo combined for nine lost fumbles and only two touchdowns in their rookie seasons. It’s safe to say that the shine wore off on those two players rather quickly, and that was reflected in their ADP this season.
Ameer Abdullah is likely to find himself in the feature role with the Lions by default. Many in the fantasy community are in love with Zach Zenner, but it certainly isn’t based on how he has performed on an NFL field. Theo Riddick will likely have nice impact catching passes out of the backfield, but he isn’t suited for a leading role.
Meanwhile, Melvin Gordon will likely find himself getting the vast majority of carries for similar reasons. He can’t get much worse than last season as he lost five fumbles, averaged 3.5 yards per carry, and failed to reach the end zone.
Abdullah will come out of the gates firing in what could be the highest scoring game of the week against the Colts. Indianapolis has been poor at stopping the run for several consecutive seasons, so until they prove otherwise, fantasy owners should be comfortable starting their backs against them.
That doesn’t mean you should sleep on Gordon, however. Kansas City is perceived as a tough run defense but they were a middle-of-the-road defense against on a per-carry basis last season and are without Justin Houston to start the year. Given that Kansas City’s offense isn’t likely to pull away from anybody, this game could feature a lot of Gordon and Woodhead along with Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West.
Though it takes a leap of faith, I would start either Gordon or Abdullah given the right circumstance. If you were relying on Jamaal Charles’ health or drafted Le’Veon Bell despite his suspension, Gordon and Abdullah could be your fantasy savior this week.
Can Colby Fleener finally deliver?
Fleener was drafted just after Delanie Walker this season and his value is based purely on speculation. He has just one season as a viable starting tight end and is being drafted based on his situation with his new team, the New Orleans Saints. The only problem is that reports haven’t been flattering as to how Fleener is adjusting to the new scheme and fitting into the Saints’ system.
Last season, the Raiders were generous to opposing tight ends, so it is possible that Fleener has a standout game and delivers, at least for one week, on his draft price. Most owners who drafted him likely firmly believe in him so he will be heavily started across both DFS and season-long formats, but a wait-and-see approach is more prudent.
Which Kirk Cousins will show up on Monday night?
Cousins’ overall numbers from a season ago look great, and his performance shouldn’t be taken away from him. Entering this season, fantasy owners have entrusted him at close to the level of a QB1, as he as the 13th quarterback off the board according to FantasyPros ADP data. Taking a deeper dive into his finish among quarterbacks on a weekly basis last season, however, indicates that maybe he isn’t as trustworthy as his final numbers would indicate.
Cousins finished as a QB1 (top-12) seven times last season, and in those seven games, his average finish among QBs in fantasy points was 3.85. He never finished worse than the fifth overall quarterback in those weeks. In the remaining nine weeks, Cousins’ average finish among quarterbacks was 23.22. In only one of those weeks did he finish better than 19th among quarterbacks in points scored.
Given those numbers, it’s safe to say that Cousins was a boom or bust option last season. The good news for fantasy owners is that he has a great chance of starting the season with a boom on Monday night when Washington hosts the Steelers. Not only is the game at home but the Steelers struggled against the pass last season and they haven’t made significant additions to change that this season.
ADP data from fantasyfootballcalculator.com and FantasyPros.com
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Daniel Marcus is a correspondent at FantasyPros. To read more from Daniel, check out his archive, visit fantasy-phenoms.com, or follow him @danmarcus3.
