Will Ian Desmond’s pros end up outweighing his cons in 2017?
Coming off a bounce-back 20-20 season in Texas, Ian Desmond heads to Colorado, a change of scenery that should boost almost any hitter’s fantasy value. So how excited should we be about Desmond in Coors Field?
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The bad news is that Desmond is only one year removed from arguably the worst year of his career, in which he struck out nearly 30% of the time, hit just .233 and failed to reach either 70 runs or RBI. It was a season which cost him a lot of money at the time, as he was forced to accept the one-year deal in Texas after turning down a lucrative extension from the Nationals the previous offseason. Desmond also has a clear history of streakiness. He’s had at least one sub-.650 OPS month every year of his career, and two of his last four half-seasons – the first half of 2015 and the second of 2016 – have been over 30% worse than league average. There will probably be at least a couple of weeks of the season where head-to-head owners are wondering why Desmond insists on ruining their matchup. As he doesn’t have great plate discipline and relies on a high BABIP, this is always likely to be the case for Desmond, and when the BABIP does drop back towards .300 over a longer period of time, as it did in 2015, the results aren’t good. Oh, and he won’t be shortstop-eligible to start 2017.
Those are all legitimate reasons to be concerned about Desmond’s value in 2017. Now that those are out of the way, here are some reasons for optimism.
The Park
Texas is a very nice place to hit. Compared to Colorado, Texas looks mediocre. At Coors Field, there isn’t only an increased chance of home runs (although it’s probably the best park for that too), batting average, doubles and triples also rise, as the huge outfield is a nightmare for defenders, causing more balls to drop for hits and inflating BABIP as well as increasing the chance that a ball goes to the wall. Breaking balls, in particular, suffer, as the thin air reduces the drag and Magnus force on the ball, resulting in less movement than you would get at lower altitude. There are a lot of things we can’t predict about baseball; Coors Field being excellent for hitters is one thing we certainly can.
The Lineup
Desmond is likely to be batting in a lineup that contains some combination of Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, D.J. LeMahieu, Trevor Story and David Dahl. Not all of those players would be exciting in another park, but in Coors, they’re batting title contenders and 30-homer threats, and most formats don’t park-adjust. Story blasted 27 bombs in a rookie season that was cut 50 games short by injury. LeMahieu won the 2016 NL batting title by hitting .348. Arenado is a first-round fantasy talent and Blackmon isn’t too far off. Even prospect Tom Murphy, who will share catching duties with Tony Wolters, has plus power and launched 19 homers in just 80 games at Triple-A in 2016.
The Floor
In his least productive fantasy season of the last five years, the aforementioned 2015 campaign, Desmond hit 19 home runs and stole 13 bases. The other categories weren’t what anyone was looking for, but he still gave you power and speed, albeit not quite in the quantities you might have hoped for. The 31-year-old’s baserunning skills look intact and while his groundball-heavy approach does not stand to gain him as much as others might get out of Coors, he should still be on first base a little more often than he would have been had he landed anywhere else. If 2015 is the worst we can expect from Desmond, there’s some encouragement in that. His batting average is very unlikely to be as low, and the context alone should keep his runs and RBI totals up, assuming health. Speaking of health, Desmond’s career low in games played since his full-season debut in 2010 is 130 in 2012, and he’s played at least 154 games in every other season.
In real-life terms, this is a puzzling move for the Rockies, especially considering that at present, Desmond is still slotted in at first base with a crowded outfield and no other signings to move him off the position. That could yet prove problematic for fantasy owners if he’s not eligible elsewhere in future years, but for 2017, Desmond is an enticing pick as a power-speed combo in baseball’s best run-scoring environment. He’s only going 62nd overall in early NFBC data, a price that’s definitely worth paying in my opinion.
Check out all of our 2017 fantasy baseball player profiles
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Darius Austin is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Darius, find his work at Friends with Fantasy Benefits, Banished to the Pen and Bat Flips & Nerds and follow him @DariusA64.
