Welcome to this season’s first edition of Depth Chart Review!
Okay, maybe it’s not the catchiest title, but as it suggests, every week I’ll be highlighting important depth chart changes and how they might affect your fantasy team(s). This will touch on reported changes in playing time, team roles, batting order, and player personnel.
So without further ado, let’s check in on some noteworthy final roster decisions as we edge closer to Opening Day!
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Dusty Baker pulls a fast one on us
Going into Spring Training, most considered Shawn Kelley the favorite to close for the Nationals. Then, a few weeks ago Dusty Baker indicated Koda Glover could be the guy. Naturally, the job went to neither one, as Baker announced on Thursday that they’ll be rolling with the pitcher behind door number three; Blake Treinen.
Treinen was always considered a candidate for the job, but it was a surprise choice given that most of camp he appeared to be third in the pecking order. That doesn’t make him some scrub, though. Treinen arguably possesses one of the best power-sinkers in the game, that according to Brooks Baseball averaged 96-97 mph the last two seasons. This leads to inevitable comparisons to Zach Britton’s almighty sinker, a guy who just happens to be one of the best closers in the business. No, this isn’t to say Treinen will suddenly be the next Britton, but he certainly has the stuff to hold onto the job. Last year, in 73 appearances he reached 63 punchouts with a 2.28 ERA, along with strong marks in ground-ball rate (65.9%) and hard-hit rate (23.1%). The walk rate could definitely use some work (11.8%), but if he can keep it at bay, there’s a lot to like here.
Still, considering how long it took Treinen to get the nod with two contenders waiting in the wings, he likely won’t have the longest leash if things go south. He should be picked up in all leagues, but if you’re drafting this weekend, the uncertain job security drops him towards the end of the closer spectrum. In general, you’re fine dropping both Kelley and Glover, although they’re worth speculative holds in NL-only formats.
Is DeShields da man?
See what I did there? I agree, not my best effort.
Delino DeShields looks to be the surprise winner in the Rangers’ left fielder sweepstakes. Better yet, he may lead off to start the year. His sudden emergence stems from a perfect 12-for-12 on the base paths this spring, along with a stellar .446 OBP. Spring Training or not, that will get your attention.
But the reason no one expected anything of DeShields going in is because he was in the exact same spot going into last season, and he fizzled out to an ugly .209/.275/.313 line, striking out 26.6% of the time. And like many speedsters, he’s a virtual zero in the power department (.110 career isolated power). That being said, this is a guy who in 2012 put the minors on easy mode and swiped a ridiculous 101 bases. The speed is no joke. He also has a good history of taking walks, putting together a 10.8% walk rate in his 2015 rookie season.
Could DeShields falter again? Absolutely. But if he can be just adequate enough to get on base and unleash his speed, he will stick in the lineup, much like Billy Hamilton has proven in recent years. For fantasy teams looking for stolen bases, DeShields is a no-brainer pickup in all leagues, and in drafts he makes for a great late-round flyer.
The loser in all this is former top prospect Jurickson Profar. The 24-year-old should still get at-bats in a utility role, but he didn’t show much last year, so he isn’t worth a roster spot in most leagues.
Judgement Day
Is it Aaron Judge’s time? The 6’7″ behemoth will officially enter the season as the Yankees’ starting right fielder, and try to prove he can hang with major league pitching. The elite power prospect got his first taste of the Show last season, and responded by striking out an astounding 44.2% in 95 plate appearances. Ugh.
The power potential is huge, though, and if he can cut down on the strikeouts he could be a 30-home run threat. It’s a stupidly small sample size, but if you look at last year’s average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls, he’s the name that tops the Statcast leaderboard. And yes, that says 100 mph.
While it should be taken with a grain of salt, this spring Judge has a .960 OPS backed up by a reasonable 13/6 K/BB ratio in 61 at-bats, giving promise that he’ll hold his own better this time around. If he’s sitting on your waiver wire and you need some power, he’s definitely worth a look. For those drafting this weekend, Judge is still more of a boom-or-bust late-round flyer in most leagues, but he’s a particularly interesting target in AL-only formats.
Twins reward Park’s strong spring with a trip to the minors
Byung-ho Park obliterated the baseball in Spring Training, hitting .353 with six bombs to the tune of a 1.159 OPS. They say Spring Training stats don’t matter, and evidently the Twins felt that way, electing to send the slugger to the minors. The move comes as a surprise, especially with fellow DH candidate Kennys Vargas less than 100%. Park struggled in his debut last year, slashing just .191/.275/.409 in 244 plate appearances, but he did have 12 home runs. He was a massive power hitter in South Korea, slugging 50-plus bombs in both 2014 and 2015, which is what continues to make him an intriguing player. Unfortunately, given he did everything he could this spring and still got demoted, it’s hard to see Park getting called back anytime soon.
Vargas could also become a fantasy asset if given a shot. In 177 plate appearances last season, he fancied himself a three-true-outcomes kind of guy, hitting 10 homers with the requisite high strikeout rate (32.2%) and walk rate (13.6%). As you might expect, he didn’t hit for average (.230), but a high hard-hit rate (41.7%) and fly-ball rate (47.9%) show he could be a sneaky home run asset if given the at-bats. A bruised foot has limited him, though, so he’s expected to begin the season either on the DL or in Triple-A.
Instead of either guy, Robbie Grossman is expected to take over at DH. Frankly, he’s the most boring of the three, lacking any one skill that he excels at. He was solid enough last year, putting together a .280/.386/.443 line in 389 plate appearances, and was particularly nasty against lefties (168 wRC+). But as a career .254 hitter, there’s no guarantee he’ll hit for average again, and he has little in the way of pop or speed.
With playing time alone, Grossman gains some value in deep leagues, but he lacks the upside to move the needle in most formats. Park and Vargas have the power potential to become fantasy assets this season, so be sure to keep tabs on them. For the time being, they’re only worth holding onto in AL-only leagues.
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.
