2018 Consensus Ranking Analysis (Fantasy Baseball)

Fantasy baseball drafters should never place too much weight on one set of rankings. No expert holds all the answers, and nobody will win a league by sticking to a hosting site’s default order.

FantasyPros’ Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are also not a foolproof formula, but they give gamers a better starting point. Rather than get swayed too heavily by one set of opinions, ECR averages rankings from all participating analysts to gauge how the industry collectively sees every player.

Last week, I submitted my rankings to a pool of 32 participants, as of Monday night. More analysts should follow, and the early birds will undoubtedly tinker their order to reflect spring developments and new research findings. Even experts will keep an open mind and react to outside opinions on occasion.

While I certainly don’t hold myself to a higher accord than the other brilliant minds who filed their rankings, I naturally don’t see eye-to-eye on every player evaluation. Here’s where I differ most from the ECR.

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Players I Like More

 
Would the Cardinals bench a guy who batted .309/.373/.518 in 307 plate appearances last season? The possibility has other rankers bearish on Jose Martinez, and perhaps I did not give proper weight to those playing-time concerns. I’m nevertheless too enamored by a 37.2 hard-hit percentage and .399 xwOBA to slide the late bloomer outside my top 250.

I want to purchase plenty of Zack Godley as a No. 2 or 3 starter. His 13.3 swinging-strike percentage tied Jacob deGrom for ninth among all starters with at least 150 innings pitched, and only three (Robbie Ray, Corey Kluber, and Max Scherzer) generated a lower contact rate than his 70 percent. Decreasing the innings limit to 80-which added Luis Castillo and Lance McCullers to the query-only five other starters submitted over a strikeout per frame and a 50.0 ground-ball percentage.

He fared fine at Chase Field (3.45 ERA, 79 Ks in 75.2 innings), but the humidor helps alleviate some regression concerns. I’m fully buying his breakout.

Godley and Patrick Corbin might both be due for a humidor boost. The 1.42 WHIP must be driving everyone away from the latter because I’m surprised to be drastically more optimistic about a hurler who registered a 50.4 ground-ball rate, 11.0 swinging-strike percentage, and 3.21 second-half ERA last year.

Not everyone is on board the Castillo hype train. Six analysts have him ranked outside the top 150, and I’m only one of five to place him inside the top 100. Quite frankly, I expected more buzz given his No. 95 ADP in 2018 NFBC drafts and a seemingly never-ending stream of praise.

There’s plenty to like from the Reds righty, who registered a 3.12 ERA, 98 strikeouts, and 58.1 ground-ball rate in 89.1 innings. Only Luis Severino averaged a higher fastball velocity than Castillo, who didn’t unleash his new two-seamer until his seventh of 15 major league starts. Some skepticism of the small sample size is undoubtedly healthy, but I’ll gamble on the ace upside before taking Kyle Hendricks or Marcus Stroman.

I expected Jorge Polanco’s spectacular second half (.293/.359/.511, 10 home runs, and seven steals) to generate more buzz. Eddie Rosario is also higher on my rankings (118) than ECR (132), but perhaps everyone was either preoccupied with Byron Buxton or not buying Minnesota’s torrid summer against an easy schedule.

Luckily the Tigers and White Sox still play in the AL Central, so I’m willing to speculate on a 24-year-old shortstop with a high contact percentage (86.5) maintaining those power and speed gains. Don’t be surprised if Polanco picks up some steam in March.

I knew I had an affinity for Polanco, but seeing the Orlando Arcia discrepancy caused me to second-guess my evaluation. I’m not all that jazzed about the Milwaukee shortstop, so perhaps I’m just overrating this tier of middle-infield targets. Or maybe everyone else already got bored of a 23-year-old rising star who hit .277 with 15 homers and 14 steals in his first full MLB campaign. This is a case where I’m not itching to take him in Round 16 even if I believe that’s a fair price, especially since I could probably grab Polanco or Marcus Semien a little later.

Nothing against Mike Moustakas, Kyle Seager, Jake Lamb, and Adrian Beltre, but I’ll happily grab Nick Castellanos a few rounds later. His 43.4 hard-hit rate, 89.1-mph exit velocity, and .291 xAVG have me projecting last season’s .272 average as a safe floor rather than his ceiling. He’ll need to repair a rising ground-ball rate to approach 30 home runs, but he won’t dip much below 2017’s 26 with regular playing time.

He’d easily join the previous tier of third baseman in the 90-100 range if the Tigers boasted a better lineup. I’ll trade some RBIs for a few batting-average points and hope to unearth another level without paying an upside tariff.

Players I Like Less

 
My rankings have a 12-team mixed league in mind. Perhaps that explains why I’m much lower on so many veteran hurlers. The likes of Cole Hamels, Jake Odorizzi, Lance Lynn, and Rick Porcello don’t offer enough strikeout and/or ratio help to contribute beyond streamer consideration in those formats.

Bump them up in deeper leagues where innings are tougher to find, but I’ll take my chances on potential difference-makers in the last rounds on shallower drafts. I wouldn’t mind taking Porcello to counteract a high-risk staff, so I was surprised to see that I ranked him far worse than my peers.

Based on this logic, one would think I’d like Lance McCullers more than the pack. Apparently not. To be clear, I’m not avoiding the Astros righty.

In fact, I already grabbed him in the 14th round of my NFBC draft weeks ago. The nine experts who placed him in the top 100, with a high of 62, will think that’s a steal. I’m not as worried about the 4.25 ERA as I am by the 118.2 innings.

If he gets a paper cut, Houston may place him on the DL and give Collin McHugh or Brad Peacock some starts. Then again, health also isn’t the only detriment to a Cy Young campaign.

Opponents hit .294/.429/.471 against his four-some fastball, so the 24-year-old must find success beyond his devastating curveball to stay in a stacked rotation. His peripherals (3.10 FIP, 10.01 K/9, 61.3 GB%) still tantalize, but a No. 109 ECR does not account for the substantial risk.

Other guys I didn’t realize I was the pessimist on include Jackie Bradley Jr., Michael Brantley, Aaron Altherr, and Andrew Miller. I thought I liked Bradley more than the field given his 278 NFBC ADP. Brantley will make both rankings foolish with a full season of health, but I’m not holding my breath. Altherr must fight Nick Williams for playing time, and Miller’s appeal depends entirely on the league.

Forty-one players hit 30 or more home runs last year, and 74 clubbed at least 25. With all that prevalent power, drafters can be picky about their sluggers. Why risk Chris Davis torpedoing your average around the 13th/14th round when Kendrys Morales can offer 25-30 bombs and far more downside outside the top 200?

Mark Trumbo’s 2016 breakout stands out as a clear outlier, and a 178 ECR does not reflect the 32-year-old’s volatility and contact woes. Besides, anyone willing to sink their average for pop can grab Todd Frazier (219 ECR), Randal Grichuk (266), or Matt Chapman (283) much later. I’m not sure if everyone has adequately adjusted their calculations to account for the rising power supply and average and steals demand.

Nobody selected Matt Kemp in the 15-team, 29-round LABR mixed-league draft. He’s a 33-year-old defensive liability fighting for a starting job on a Dodgers team that doesn’t seem to want him. This looks like a case of paying for the name and past accolades, but perhaps I’m being too harsh.

Although the steals are gone and never coming back, Kemp could still hit .270 with 25 bombs if given the opportunity. He’s also in the best shape of his life! One way or another, my ranking will probably change significantly before Opening Day.

I thought I liked A.J. Pollock. Then I saw his No. 53 ECR. This should drop with news of a humidor coming to Chase Field in 2018, as the Diamondbacks outfielder has slashed a career .299/.353/.495 at home and .273/.332/.430 on the road.

That adds to an already risky selection; the 30-year-old has not logged 500 or more plate appearances in a season outside of 2015’s breakout. I took him No. 66 in my aforementioned NFBC draft (pre-humidor confirmation) after assembling a sturdy foundation of high-contact hitters.

I’m not comfortable taking him any higher. Look for Arizona bats to fall as rankers process the humidor’s impact.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.