If you have been reading content at FantasyPros for any length of time, then you are familiar with Zero RB and other draft strategies. There is a multitude of strategies you can implement to win your fantasy football league. The biggest opportunity I have observed is how fantasy players implement various strategies. In this article, I will share five things you need to know in order to properly execute a running back focused fantasy draft strategy.
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Volume is a Valuable Commodity
In order to properly execute this draft strategy, I recommend you target RBs early and often during the first five rounds. Did you know that five out of 10 of the top-10 PPR fantasy running backs in 2017 finished with 250+ carries and 50+ receptions?
| Player | Season | RuATTs | RuYDs | TGTs | RECs | ReYDs | PPR |
| Le’Veon Bell | 2017 | 21.4 | 86.1 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 43.7 | 23 |
| Todd Gurley | 2017 | 18.6 | 87 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 52.5 | 25.8 |
| LeSean McCoy | 2017 | 17.9 | 71.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 28 | 16.6 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2017 | 17.8 | 69.1 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 29.8 | 18.4 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2017 | 17 | 82.9 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 28.4 | 18.6 |
Imagine a scenario in which you have three of the top 20 RBs on your roster. The most predictable year-to-year statistics for RBs are rushing attempts, targets, and receptions. Total touches have a strong correlation to fantasy points.
If an RB is averaging nearly 20 or more touches per game, then they have good chance to produce 220+ fantasy points in PPR formats. The FantasyPros Draft Wizard is an excellent resource that you can use to see the RB-focused strategy come to life.
I was able to build a solid foundation of RBs drafting from the 1.03 in a 12-team league. These RBs are projected to see high volume and could all finish inside the top-20 in PPR formats. Imagine if you implemented such a strategy last season and started your fantasy draft with the following RBs: Bell, Gurley, Leonard Fournette, Mark Ingram, and C.J. Anderson. Age is also another important variable to consider when implementing an RB focused strategy.
The Peak Age for an NFL Running Back Matters
Age helps us make informed predictions as to when a player will improve or regress. Mike Braude, Co-Founder of Apex Fantasy Football Money Leagues and RotoViz writer, wrote an article that defined a peak season for an NFL running back. Here is an excerpt from that article:
In 2017, Christian McCaffery finished as the 10th best running back, scoring 229.6 PPR fantasy points. We’ll round up from there and include all running backs who finished with at least 230 PPR fantasy points since 2000. This gives us a sample size of 150.
The average age of that sample size is 25.63 and below is a distribution chart of the ages of the peak season.
The peak is from ages 23 to 28 with 80.7 percent of the seasons falling within that range. Todd Gurley, Leonard Fournette, and Jordan Howard who I selected in the mock draft mentioned above fall within that range. This research allows you to make more educated decisions as to which RBs to draft.
Draft Wide Receivers in the Middle Rounds
You will aggressively target WRs in the next six to seven rounds depending on how your league’s starting lineups are constructed. The goal is to shift your focus toward a receiver’s role over skill and to identify players who are projected to see target volume. Those that a run a percentage of routes from the slot can be very valuable in PPR formats. Here is a line of sight of WRs who finished inside the top-40 in PPR formats ranked by target volume who had an average draft position outside the fifth round in 2017:
| Player | Season | TGTs | RECs | ReYDs | ReTDs | PPR | PPR Finish |
| Adam Thielen | 2017 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 79.8 | 0.2 | 15.2 | WR8 |
| Marqise Lee | 2017 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 54 | 0.2 | 11.2 | WR40 |
| Robby Anderson | 2017 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 58.8 | 0.4 | 12.5 | WR18 |
| Robert Woods | 2017 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 65.1 | 0.4 | 13.8 | WR32 |
| Devin Funchess | 2017 | 7 | 3.9 | 52.5 | 0.5 | 12.2 | WR21 |
| Marvin Jones | 2017 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 68.8 | 0.6 | 14.1 | WR11 |
| Kenny Stills | 2017 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 52.9 | 0.4 | 11.2 | WR28 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2017 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 60.1 | 0.1 | 10.5 | WR31 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2017 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 46.9 | 0.3 | 11.7 | WR29 |
| Cooper Kupp | 2017 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 57.2 | 0.3 | 11.9 | WR25 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 2017 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 70.5 | 0.5 | 14.7 | WR23 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2017 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 48 | 0.5 | 11.7 | WR22 |
| Ted Ginn | 2017 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 52.5 | 0.3 | 10.6 | WR34 |
You will have the flexibility to draft WRs in the middle rounds such as Cooper Kupp, Sterling Shepard, Emmanuel Sanders, DeVante Parker, Marqise Lee, Nelson Agholor, and Robby Anderson. Some other late round receivers to keep on your radar who could outperform their ADP include Martavis Bryant, Kenny Stills, Zay Jones, Courtland Sutton, Michael Gallup, and Taylor Gabriel.
Draft Tight Ends in the Late Rounds
It is wise to wait on selecting a tight end using this draft strategy. The TE production last season blended together after Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, and Zach Ertz.
| Player | Season | TGTs | RECs | ReYDs | ReTDs | PPR | PPR Finish |
| Travis Kelce | 2017 | 122 | 83 | 1,038 | 8 | 15.6 | TE1 |
| Rob Gronkowski | 2017 | 105 | 69 | 1,084 | 8 | 16.2 | TE2 |
| Zach Ertz | 2017 | 110 | 74 | 824 | 8 | 14.5 | TE3 |
| Delanie Walker | 2017 | 111 | 74 | 807 | 3 | 10.9 | TE4 |
| Evan Engram | 2017 | 115 | 64 | 722 | 6 | 11.6 | TE5 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2017 | 95 | 57 | 520 | 10 | 10.7 | TE6 |
| Jack Doyle | 2017 | 108 | 80 | 690 | 4 | 11.3 | TE7 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 2017 | 81 | 57 | 532 | 8 | 9.9 | TE8 |
Austin Seferian-Jenkins, David Njoku, George Kittle, Eric Ebron and Charles Clay are excellent options that could be used in a TE by committee approach. These are all players that have a defined role, should see a fair share of targets, and be used as a safety valve for their quarterbacks.
Late Round QBs Still Reign Supreme
QBs such as Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, Jameis Winston, and Andy Dalton are available in the double-digit rounds of fantasy drafts. The key is to wait for the position as long as you can. You want to target a QB that has the potential to outperform their ADP. Pass attempts and passing yards per game are the most predictive statistics for QBs.
Conclusion
This is what my team looked like after completing the mock draft using the FantasyPros Draft Wizard. Here is an analysis of my team:
It is easy to become enamored with the RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2, and WR3 position. The most criminally underrated position of any fantasy football team is the flex. As Shawn Siegele has championed for years “it’s one of the easiest positions to generate more value over average than your opponents.”
Do you agree or disagree with the draft strategy in this article? What did you find most useful? Please leave a comment below or better yet reach out via Twitter @EricNMoody. Until next time!
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Eric Moody is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Eric, check out his archive and follow him @EricNMoody.
