Max Muncy slugged yet another home run on Wednesday night, and one of 2018’s biggest surprises just won’t stop mashing. He’s now reached 16 dingers over 207 plate appearances with the Dodgers this year, which is leaps and bounds over the mere five he managed across 245 with the Athletics from 2015-2016. In fact, among players with at least 200 plate appearances, Muncy’s wOBA ranks fourth overall (.416), ahead of notable names like Nolan Arenado and Freddie Freeman. His .337 ISO ranks second behind only Mookie Betts.
There’s no question Muncy has been a revelation for the Dodgers, but as always, the question is whether all this is sustainable. Looking back to his Triple-A numbers in 2017, he appeared to make some significant strides at the plate, posting a .399 wOBA and .181 ISO over 379 plate appearances. He’s also always shown the ability to take a walk, so even with some regression off his 18.8% walk rate, it should remain high. However, given Muncy’s 24.2% strikeout rate, we probably shouldn’t expect his batting average to get much better than the .259 he’s displayed thus far.
The power is backed up by a 46.2% hard-hit rate and 45.7% fly-ball rate, along with an increase in average exit velocity compared to his Athletics days. Of course, it’s only natural to expect his 30.2% HR/FB rate to drop — this isn’t Aaron Judge we’re talking about — but at least the power stroke has some legs. Even his absurd wOBA is backed up a .449 xwOBA, which also ranks fourth in the league.
We’re still only talking about a limited sample size, and projection systems all suggest regression, but it’s hard not to be encouraged by the batted-ball numbers and high walk rate. We should presume his torrid pace will slow down at some point, but there’s enough evidence to suggest Muncy isn’t all smoke and mirrors. The safe move is probably still to sell high, but even if you ride it out, you should nevertheless be handsomely rewarded. Now, let’s take a look at how a few other guys are doing.
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Joey Gallo is batting .125 in June, but is also producing a 62.5% hard-hit rate
Things haven’t gone well for Joey Gallo since we last checked in on him, and in June, he’s batting just .125/.291/.297 with a horrendous 40.5% strikeout rate. Worse yet, the Rangers have dropped Gallo to eighth in the batting order the past two games, further deflating his value. He’s only mustered three home runs over this span, so it’s not like he’s even contributing in that department.
And yet, Gallo is posting a monstrous 62.5% hard-hit rate this month, which is the highest rate in the entire league. Despite a miserable .274 wOBA, he’s showing a much more reasonable .347 xwOBA, and considering all that hard contact, his .172 BABIP looks like some brutal bad luck. The sky-high punchouts aren’t helping, but otherwise, Gallo might not be performing quite as severely as his poor June results would indicate.
With Gallo still hitting the ball hard and maintaining his fly-ball rate (51.6%), it’s only a matter of time before those dingers start coming back in these hot summer months. We know the low batting average is part of the deal at this point, but keep faith in that lethal power upside. After all, few guys can compare to Gallo in average exit velocity. Stay the course.
Billy Hamilton is batting .316/.381/.421 with five stolen bases over the past two weeks
On the other hand, is Billy Hamilton finally coming around? It’s been a somewhat frustrating season for Hamilton, who ought to be lapping the field in stolen bases, particularly with so few significant speed contributors these days. By this time in 2017, Hamilton had 33 swiped bags, which would lead the league by 10 this season. Instead, Hamilton has achieved less than half that amount (15), a massive disappointment from his primary fantasy selling point.
But maybe, just maybe, Hamilton is showing signs of life, slashing .316/.381/.421 over the last 14 days. He’s also putting up a promising 37.5% hard-hit rate, while dropping his strikeout rate to 14.3%. He’s still wallowing at the bottom of the Reds’ batting order, but we’ll gladly take these improvements.
Most importantly, he’s stealing bases again, with five of his 15 stolen bases coming over that span. Despite all of Hamilton’s 2018 struggles, the most curious issue is his lack of activity on the base paths, so this is a welcome sign that he’s back to running. Of course, it helps when you’re getting on base more often, but it’s reassuring to see evidence there isn’t some organizational philosophy change for Hamilton to pump the breaks.
It’s hard to say everything is sunshine and rainbows after a mere two weeks, but it’s the first time in a long while we’ve seen some encouraging developments. We don’t need any miracles from Hamilton, but if he can get back to running regularly, maybe he can still be a net positive by season’s end.
Jon Lester owns a 2.18 ERA, but only has a 4.50 SIERA
Jon Lester has rewarded owners with a fantastic 2.18 ERA and 1.08 WHIP through 14 starts and is one of just seven hurlers who has reached at least 10 wins. But don’t confuse this with the Lester of old, as he’s only managed a 4.50 SIERA, 19.4% strikeout rate, and 8.4% walk rate. His velocity is down for the second straight season, and a low .234 BABIP suggests that ERA has benefited from some good fortune. He’s also allowing the highest hard-contact rate of his career (36.2%), and his groundball rate has dropped significantly (38.9%).
Really, despite the results, Lester is more average than great now, and he screams regression across the board. If you can move him, the sooner, the better.
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Kenyatta Storin is a featured writer with FantasyPros. For more from Kenyatta, check out his archive and follow him @kenyattastorin.
