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10 Things We Learned: Week 7 (Fantasy Football)

10 Things We Learned: Week 7 (Fantasy Football)

I am such a huge live sports addict that I don’t generally have a lot of time for traditional non-sports television. I can typically only find the time to watch one or two television shows at a time, and I’m usually late to the game on them. I didn’t get obsessed with Lost until five years after it stopped airing, for example (but I did get really obsessed with it). I’m always up to speed on Game of Thrones, but that’s basically it.

My one TV show of the moment is The Good Place, and while I love it so far, I’ve only just finished the first season. The show certainly provides a fun new angle on the whole heaven and hell thing, and it happens to apply quite well to fantasy quarterbacks.

We learned a lot about quarterbacks this week. Some, like Andrew Luck, proved once and for all they belong in the Good Place. Others, like Andy Dalton, have to be relegated to the Bad Place (the red hair should have been a giveaway). Then there’s QBs like Mitch Trubisky, Jameis Winston, and Deshaun Watson, whose fate is still to be determined. Let’s put them in the Medium Place for now.

We’ll cover all that and more this week. As always, you can find me on Twitter if you’ve got roster or lineup questions — just no The Good Place spoilers, please!

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Mitch Trubisky is the new Blake Bortles
Bortles has played so poorly of late that he got benched this week. But don’t worry, a new Bortles is here and his name is Mitch Trubisky.

To be fair, Trubisky is still developing as a quarterback, so in time this comparison could look silly. But right here, right now, the similarities between Trubisky and Bortles are striking. Both lead teams that are traditionally known for winning games with defense and the running game but have been branching out offensively either be design (in the case of the Bears’ Matt Nagy) or necessity (the Jags’ eroding defense and loss of workhorse Leonard Fournette). Both QBs are capable of throwing for 350 yards and four touchdowns one week, and 150 yards and zero touchdowns the next. Both make some inexplicable throws into double coverage that make you cringe. Both are adept runners that provide a weekly rushing floor — something that can make them slightly underrated in fantasy circles but doesn’t make up for the games that are complete stinkers.

The biggest difference between the two, of course, is that Trubisky has a starting job, while Bortles may have lost his.

Trubisky’s performance over the last three games has been nothing short of fantastic, at least from a fantasy perspective, but Bortles gives us a good guideline of what to expect from Trubisky going forward, at least for the rest of 2018. There are likely to be more extreme highs and lows than there are for most other quarterbacks, and the end result should be borderline QB1 numbers. You just won’t ever feel comfortable having either of these guys as your every-week starter.

Andrew Luck is an every-week QB1
Speaking of every-week starters, Andrew Luck is finally back in that category after a long, tedious recovery from shoulder surgery. Concerns about his arm were erased when he proved he could still throw the deep ball and could drop back to pass 60 times if need be. What Luck has been able to accomplish over the last month is particularly impressive when you consider the rag-tag bunch of receivers he’s had to work with. His go-to option has been Eric Ebron, for Pete’s sake.

Indy’s true number one receiver, T.Y. Hilton, missed two games, and Luck’s number two option heading into the season, Jack Doyle, still hasn’t played since Week 2 — and yet Luck has thrown for 15 touchdowns over the last four games.

Hilton returned in Week 7 and immediately caught two touchdowns, instantly vaulting himself back into the high-end WR2 realm. Doyle’s status is still unclear, but Luck has shown he can produce QB1 numbers no matter who is on the receiving end of his passes.

Oh, and that Marlon Mack guy that I said was back last week? Well, he’s more back than I could have imagined.

Nick Chubb is Carlos Hyde 2.0 — if not better
Chubb is just about the same size as Hyde, and it looks like the Browns plan to use the rookie in the same fashion that they were using the veteran. Despite noise that Duke Johnson would now be the “starter,” Chubb inherited Hyde’s workhorse role against Tampa Bay, rushing 18 times for 80 yards and a touchdown while Johnson saw his customary five weekly touches.

Chubb showed explosiveness earlier in the season that Hyde lacked, so it’s possible that Chubb will have even more productive days ahead. But his floor is seemingly Hyde-ian production, which is good enough to be a borderline RB1/2 at a position lacking reliable bell cows. The Browns have a very favorable rest-of-season schedule for running backs, so Chubb is a recommended buy-high despite his solid performance in his first game as the starter in Cleveland.

Deshaun Watson isn’t fully healthy — and it shows
Watson is struggling through bruised lungs and ribs, and it’s reportedly troublesome enough that he is avoiding airplanes so that air pressure changes don’t aggravate his injuries. Watson has thrown just 49 passes for 316 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions over the last two games combined, and Texans coach Bill O’Brien admitted after Sunday’s game that Watson is “playing hurt.”

Watson still has as much upside as any QB in the league, but there is no sugar-coating the fact that he has yet to throw for more than two touchdowns in a game this season after averaging four touchdown passes per game over his last four games last year. It’s unlikely things are going to improve for Watson in the short term, as he faces a quick turnaround to go up against an opportunistic Dolphins defense that is tied for the league lead in interceptions and is fresh off shutting down Matthew Stafford and his trio of elite WRs. Given the number of appealing quarterback options in the league in 2018, it is very hard to justify starting Watson in one-quarterback leagues right now.

Watson’s health is also a concern for his receivers, at least in the short term. You’re never sitting DeAndre Hopkins, but he may not be quite as elite an option as usual this week, while Will Fuller is more WR3 than WR2.

The Patriots may go pass-heavy with Sony Michel out
New England is reportedly optimistic that Sony Michel’s knee injury is not season-ending, and an MRI supported that. Regardless, it seems likely that Michel could still miss a game or two as a result of the injury.

Kenjon Barner stepped in for Michel on Sunday and handled 10 rushing attempts, but neither Barner nor James White is built for the bruising, between-the-tackle work that Michel was handling. It’s possible the Patriots sign someone off the street — old friend Mike Gillislee is available — or even swing a trade. But Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels are known for adapting their offense to fit the pieces they have available, which suggests that New England may just decide to go pass-heavy.

The pieces are all there for a pass-happy attack: White is one of the best pass-catching backs in the league, Josh Gordon continues to get more and more comfortable in the offense, Julian Edelman looks fully recovered from last season’s torn ACL, Rob Gronkowski is expected back next week, and that Tom Brady guy is pretty good, too.

Kerryon Johnson is legit, but LeGarrette Blount isn’t going away
Nearly one month to the day after he became the Lions’ first 100-yard rusher since Reggie Bush in 2013, Kerryon Johnson produced an even bigger rushing performance than that, carrying the ball 19 times for 158 yards on Sunday against the Dolphins.

It was a terrific performance that shows Johnson’s ability to be a difference-maker in fantasy and reality, but there were a couple of factors besides Johnson’s talent that helped make it possible. First, Theo Riddick was out, and while Johnson didn’t see a major uptick in passing game usage, he did set a season-high in snaps and carries. Second, the Lions passed the ball much less than usual, which may have been game-plan specific against Miami, which possesses a strong pass defense and weaker run defense.

Then there’s the matter of LeGarrette Blount, who didn’t see an expanded role with Riddick out but did again get double-digit carries and converted his third rushing touchdown in the last two games. Blount could continue to be a thorn in the side of Kerryon owners for the rest of the season, forcing Johnson to earn his fantasy points by accumulating big yardage totals rather than touchdowns. Still, consider Kerryon a rock-solid RB2 going forward even as he continues to contend with Blount and Riddick.

Andy Dalton proves why benching studs for streamers is too cute
Dalton is who we thought he was, and that’s a player that should never be started ahead of guys like Tom Brady and Drew Brees, regardless of matchup. Yes, Dalton had a mouth-watering matchup with a Kansas City secondary that had been ripped apart by opposing QBs, while Brady and Brees faced far tougher opponents in the Bears and Ravens, respectively. But matchups are better viewed as a tiebreaker between similarly-skilled players — not a justification to start a demonstrated middle-of-the-road QB like Dalton over a guy on the GOAT short list.

Dalton has another appealing matchup against Tampa Bay this week, and that one will be at home. There’s a decent chance he bounces back in a big way, so there is no point in spite-dropping him if you don’t have a better option at QB. He’ll again be a reasonable streamer candidate, but not worth using over any QB with a track record of being elite.

It’s shaping up like another lost year for Corey Davis
I’ll be the first to admit that I bought into the Corey Davis hype a bit this year. I wasn’t reaching for him in single-season leagues, but I felt pleased to grab him at the end of the fifth round in a keeper league. Maybe that will still work out by season’s end, but the early results aren’t promising.

It was easy enough to pin Davis’ struggles on Marcus Mariota’s health early in the season, but Mariota appears fully recovered from his elbow injury and yet this passing offense continues to stink. His 237 yards passing in Week 7 was the second-most he’s thrown for this season. Ugh.

Davis remains the number one receiver in Tennessee, but that results in fewer targets and receiving yardage than the number two or three receiver gets for many other teams. The blame doesn’t all belong to Mariota, either — Davis dropped a couple very catchable balls on Sunday and just doesn’t seem to be on the same page with Mariota at all.

Dynasty owners need to sit tight with Davis in the hopes that the Titans can eventually figure out their passing game. But in redraft leagues Davis is close to unusable, and it’s no longer unthinkable that he could eventually wind up on the waiver wire in many leagues.

Chris Ivory matters again
It feels like an annual rite of passage at this point. Somebody good gets hurt and Chris Ivory briefly matters in fantasy football again.

LeSean McCoy exited Week 7 very early with a concussion and is questionable at best for a Week 8 matchup with the Patriots. In McCoy’s absence, Ivory put up an almost identical stat line to what McCoy had done the previous two weeks: 19 touches for 106 yards,  with no scores.

Game script would seem to suggest that Buffalo will need to abandon the running game early against New England, but game script is far from an exact science. More importantly, Ivory is also a capable receiver who should remain involved regardless of score if McCoy is out.

You’ll never feel excited about adding Chris Ivory, but if you need an RB or flex for Week 8, he’s probably worth taking a chance on.

Doug Martin matters again
See Ivory, Chris. With the news that Marshawn Lynch will be out at least a month with a groin injury that could send him to IR, Raiders coach Jon Gruden is likely to turn to Martin to handle most of Lynch’s job, while Jalen Richard remains the pass-catching specialist in the Oakland backfield. It’s certainly possible that Richard ends up being the more useful fantasy option, but don’t make the mistake of assuming that Richard is next up for carries just because he was getting more playing time than Martin while Lynch was healthy.

Martin is a Jekyll and Hyde running back like Isaiah Crowell, except Martin’s alternates boom and bust seasons instead of games. Remarkably, Martin has not one but two 1,400-yard rushing seasons on his resume, but he has failed to manage even 500 rushing yards in his other four seasons in the league. He might just be done at this point, but a resurgence can’t be counted out until we see what he does with the opportunity.

The set-up for Martin isn’t great, but it isn’t awful either — Lynch was performing as a top-15 fantasy back in non-PPR leagues prior to his injury. Sure, some of that was probably due to Lynch performing at a level that Martin is no longer capable of, but remember, many people counted Lynch out when he joined the Raiders, too. Martin is a worthwhile flier in all leagues, particularly non-PPR formats, and I’d prioritize him over Ivory because of the clearer path to rest-of-season value.

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Andrew Seifter is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrew_seifter.

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