Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 6

Perhaps past humiliation helped spark a turnaround. After owning up to a terrible Week 4, I jumped from 123rd to sixth in Week 5’s accuracy ratings.

Last week’s flops don’t merit as much derision. Kirk Cousins played a great game (30-of-37 for 301 yards), but he fell short of my high fantasy hopes (QB20) by scoring just one touchdown. Blake Bortles had the atrocious blunder I feared, but he saved the four-pick catastrophe by producing 430 passing yards on 61 passing attempts (and a rushing touchdown) in garbage time. The experts will keep debating whether he’s kind of OK, maybe. Just when I joined the Aaron Jones Bandwagon, it got a flat tire as a result of zero second-half carries. Trying to make sense of Mike McCarthy’s thought process is a fool’s errand.

The other calls worked out well, even if some were minor victories (Nick Vannett, my TE14, finished as TE15 instead of the ECR’s TE18) or a lucky late-game save (Demaryius Thomas). Let’s try to stay hot with Week 6’s roundup of players I rank higher or lower — in standard scoring — than the ECR, using all participating experts as of Thursday evening.

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Quarterback

Undervalued: Matt Ryan (ATL vs. TB) – ECR: QB4; My Rank: QB2
I went back and forth between Matt Ryan and Tom Brady as my No. 1 QB, so it was a bit surprising to see him fourth with an average rank of 3.5. What’s not to love about his Week 6 matchup? A high school defense might have a better shot at stopping Atlanta’s sizzling offense than the Buccaneers, who have allowed 358 passing yards per game with 9,4 yards per pass attempt, a 77.1 completion percentage, and a 130.5 quarterback rating. They ceded nine passing touchdowns in two road games against Drew Brees and Mitchell Trubisky, the QB2 and QB1 in Weeks 1 and 4, respectively. Ryan, meanwhile, generated 100.2 fantasy points in three straight games inside the Georgia Dome, easily the most among any player from Weeks 2 to 4. This is splitting hairs, and it won’t even matter for most DFS lineups since the other top options (Brady, Patrick Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers) play on Sunday and Monday night. But I thankfully missed an opportunity to highlight Eli Manning as the deep streamer I liked more than most before Thursday night’s dud.

Overvalued: Patrick Mahomes (KC at NE) – ECR: QB1; My Rank: QB4
Mahomes has mustered 0.2 more fantasy point than C.J. Beathard in the last two games, but that’s not why he’s here. It takes a stud to lead his team to victory on the road in a primetime game during his fifth career start. While he didn’t throw a passing touchdown — he ran for one — in Week 5, he became the first quarterback to reach 300 passing yards against the Jaguars since Ben Roethlisberger accrued 312 yards (and five picks) in Week 5 last season. This is really all about the other three passers ranked ahead of him. Mahomes will have to keep up with Brady, who faces the NFL’s second-worst passing defense with Julian Edelman, Josh Gordon and Rob Gronkowski in tow at Gillette Stadium. Ryan gets the only worse passing defense at home in the game with the second-highest over-under line. Perhaps I could be talked into swapping Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers if Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb are both out, but he broke through with a 442-yard, three-touchdown outburst against the Lions, one of four top-10 passing defenses he has encountered this season. After looking unencumbered by his knee in Week 5’s loss, the Green Bay superstar finally gets a favorable opponent in the 49ers. Mahomes is still great. You’re still starting him unless you happened to also roster Brady, Ryan, or Rodgers, in which case it’s time to negotiate a trade.

Running Back

Undervalued: Phillip Lindsay (DEN vs. LAR) – ECR: RB20; My Rank: RB17
Although three spots is not a huge difference, a noticeable dropoff occurs around this area of the rankings. The start-or-sit questions will arise when the top-15 backs make way for committee members and injury concerns. Phillip Lindsay’s ECR has risen over the week, and I’m wondering if I’m not high enough on the Denver rookie. Excluding Week 3’s early ejection, he has averaged 15 touches (always in the 14-16 range) and 93.25 yards per game. The Rams have relinquished 5.0 yards per rush after allowing 190 combined yards to Chris Carson and Mike Davis in Week 5. A blowout is the main concern, as Devontae Booker has captured five receptions in each of Denver’s double-digit losses. Yet the Rams have won two straight close shootouts, both of which saw the loser reach 31. That type of game would bode well for Lindsay, who has received 10 red-zone touches in his last three full games.

Overvalued: LeSean McCoy (BUF at HOU) – ECR: RB18; My Rank: RB25
I’m not ready to trust LeSean McCoy after one nice game. More to the point, I’m not ready to trust the Bills. After averaging 42 yards on 9.7 touches before Week 5, the 30-year-old produced 108 yards on 26 touches in a 13-12 win over the Titans. Yet they’re 10-point underdogs at Houston, so there’s a good chance he gets lost in the shuffle once more. The Texans have also stymied opponents to 3.4 yards per carry. If Ezekiel Elliott can only compile 54 yards on 20 carries in an overtime game lasting an extra 8:10 minutes, what chance does McCoy have of hitting the triple-digit mark for the first time since Dec. 10, 2017? He also has yet to score a touchdown on an offense accruing 12.6 points per game, so a lot needs to go right simply for him to resurface as a credible RB2. McCoy is a volume flex play, but don’t get fooled into forgetting his low floor and limited ceiling.

Wide Receiver

Undervalued: Sammy Watkins (KC at NE) – ECR: WR31; My Rank: WR25
Despite ranking his quarterback lower than the pack, I’m higher on Sammy Watkins. Most of it has to do with the same reason most experts slotted Mahomes atop their boards. Everyone is expecting a shootout where the winner may need to score 45. That should create plenty of big-play opportunities for Watkins, who has caught 17 of 23 targets for 233 yards and a touchdown in his last three full games. The steadiness, when healthy, is the most soothing part for investors. He already has more games with five or more receptions (three) than last year (two). The stable volume and snap counts have led to three top-30 finishes, so look for him to make it a fourth in Sunday night’s aerial fireworks display. Those who buy into Bill Belichick’s ability to take away the opponent’s biggest weapon will also hope Watkins attracts more attention with New England taking greater lengths to contain Travis Kelce and/or Tyreek Hill.

Overvalued: Devin Funchess (CAR at WAS) – ECR: WR33; My Rank: WR40
This one comes with a disclaimer, as Devin Funchess’s final ranking hinges on Greg Olsen’s availability. Since the start of 2017, the receiver has garnered two fewer targets per game (5.75) when sharing the field with Carolina’s starting tight end. He’s a low-ceiling WR3 averaging 48.3 yards over his last nine games, so that’s enough of a drop to change his prognosis from start to sit. Yet he has drawn a 22.1 percent target share in three games without Olsen, so this placement is a bit harsh if his teammate misses another bout. Washington has yielded the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends after getting shredded by New Orleans, so I’m still not moving him up to 33 either way.

Tight End

Undervalued: Austin Hooper (ATL vs. TB) – ECR: TE13; My Rank: TE10
Hold up, give me a second to stop vomiting in my mouth. I didn’t want to make Austin Hooper my No. 10 tight end. I mean, come one, he’s Austin Hooper. He was averaging three catches on 3.75 targets per game before collecting nine of 12 targets for 77 yards against the Steelers. That was his highest single-game yardage tally since an 88-yard touchdown fueled him to 128 in last season’s opening week. This is not, however, a gross overreaction. At least I hope not. It’s merely playing the matchups. Tampa Bay has allowed 415 yards and an NFL-high 13.4 fantasy points per game to tight ends. Just like last week, Hooper should see extended work in a shootout against a feeble defense vulnerable to the position. Also, tight end is so bad that he’s the TE11 in 2018.

Overvalued: Cameron Brate (TB at ATL) – ECR: TE9; My Rank: TE12
I really like Cameron Brate this week. Just not as much as everyone else. O.J. Howard is out (though he has returned to practice), and Jameis Winston is back. Brate, who has found pay dirt in consecutive games, scored five of his six touchdowns with Winston at the helm last year. This is going to be a high-scoring skirmish with plenty of red-zone opportunities for the 6’5″ tight end against the NFL’s 23rd-ranked passing defense. But … This is still someone who has drawn more than five targets once in the last 14 games. Also, the Falcons are fifth in DVOA against tight ends and ninth in fantasy points allowed per game (5.8). He’s an interesting streamer, but ultimately still a touchdown-or-bust option with a higher probability of passing the pylons than usual.

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