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Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 12

Fantasy Football Overvalued/Undervalued: Week 12

Beyond food and football, Thanksgiving is about tolerating dissenting opinions. Whether it’s your uncle moaning about the NFL banning defense or far scarier political discourse, it’s borderline impossible to find an entire family who agrees on everything.

Fantasy football rankings fall far further down the list of meaningful subjects worthy of vitriol-including debates. Yet when dozens of analysts converge to list all the relevant players, discrepancies are bound to arise. As they should; nobody wants groupthink eliminating fresh ideas.

The field has often proven to know better than me, but I’ve lucked into some solid calls throughout the season. With three games already in the books, let’s break down some players I like considerably more or less than the standard-scoring ECR, updated as of Thursday. Hopefully these disagreements won’t unravel into shouting matches.

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Quarterback

Undervalued: Philip Rivers (LAC vs. ARI) – ECR: QB12; My Rank: QB8
Comparing and contrasting my rankings to those of smarter people forces me to dig deeper into my thought process. The Cardinals have ceded just 13 passing touchdowns, tied with the Vikings and Cowboys for an NFL-low prior to Thursday. As heavy favorites against the 29th-ranked rushing defense, this could be another game where Rivers only needs to throw 26 times.

There’s certainly a path to the Chargers gunslinger finishing outside the top-12 passers. Ultimately, I’m banking on a high floor and efficiency. Rivers has tossed at least two touchdowns in every game. With Ryan Fitzpatrick benched and Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff on a bye, no Week 12 starter has submitted more yards per attempt than the veteran’s 9.1.

This is also a case of not loving anyone else in his tier. Tom Brady wields one touchdown in the last three games. Ben Roethlisberger gets a tough draw at Denver. Although he doesn’t have Melvin Gordon, Carson Wentz also faces an opponent (Giants) easier to beat on the ground. Plus, the guy highlighted below comes with greater volume risk. Maybe 260 yards and two touchdowns will be enough for Rivers to top them all. If not, he’s far less likely to lose a matchup.

Overvalued: Deshaun Watson (HOU vs. TEN) – ECR: QB10; My Rank: QB13
Are we sure Watson is a QB1? Currently the 11th-leading scorer with a 0.2-point lead over Russell Wilson, he faces volume concerns similar to the Seattle quarterback. Last year’s breakout star has attempted 25 or fewer passes in each of the last five games. That has resulted in a pedestrian 194.2 passing yards per contest. He hasn’t overcome those faults on the ground, tallying just 74 combined yards without a single score during that same window.

Houston’s signal-caller suddenly looks awfully touchdown-dependent, which isn’t ideal against a Tennessee defense that has permitted just 14 touchdowns through the air. Only six squads have relinquished fewer fantasy points per game to quarterbacks than the Titans (15.9), so Watson is far from a lock to deliver on Monday night. If he does stumble, keep in mind that Houston’s schedule softens (CLE, IND, NYJ, PHI) after this difficult draw.

Running Back

Undervalued: Sony Michel (NE at NYJ) – ECR: RB18; My Rank: RB14
This space nearly went to Josh Adams, but his ECR has wisely risen in anticipation of a featured role against a Giants defense allowing over 100 rushing yards and a score to three straight starting running backs. Let’s instead highlight Michel, who posted 66 combined yards and a fumble in a pair of troubling games before New England’s Week 10 bye.

It’s important to take each situation into account. The first disappointment came because he left early with an injured knee against the Bears. A 34-10 loss to the Titans presented a poor game script for him anyway, so there was especially no reason for New England to overexert him. He played just 18 snaps in a game that quickly got out of hand. Does anyone think the 7-3 Patriots are going to lose to the 3-7 Jets after stewing in their rare humiliation and planning revenge for two weeks?

Per NESN’s Doug Kyed, the rookie rusher said he feels “strong” following the extra week of rest. His Patriots are 9.5-point road favorites against New York’s 21st-ranked rushing defense. Expect way more opportunities for Michel, who handled 68 touches in three wins before reinjuring his knee at Chicago.

Overvalued: Gus Edwards (BAL vs. OAK) – ECR: RB21; My Rank: RB26
My ranking is wrong if Edwards maintains Week 11’s workload. After pummeling Cincinnati’s NFL-worst rushing defense for 115 yards and a touchdown, Baltimore’s sudden featured back gets Oakland’s second-worst run-stopping unit. Lamar Jackson attempted just 19 passes against an also-terrible Bengals passing defense in his first start, so the Ravens are going to run the ball into oblivion. I guess I’m more skeptical of the undrafted rookie, who previously procured 16 career touches, permanently keeping this role. He could easily be a top-10 back, but there’s at least some risk of getting trapped into a timeshare with Alex Collins, Javorius Allen, and/or Ty Montgomery.

I still have him ranked ahead of Collins as a strong flex play, but he falls a bit behind Adams and some more boring options (Lamar Miller and Chris Carson) with more stable opportunities. Maybe I’m risk-averse to a fault. Also, keep in mind that Collins (foot) missed practice on Thursday. Edwards will climb even higher than the ECR if his teammate can’t play.

Wide Receiver

Undervalued: Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB at MIN) – ECR: WR30; My Rank: WR24
Valdes-Scantling has recorded 52 yards in the last two games after securing just one eight-yard catch in Week 11. He’s facing a Vikings defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game (19.0) to wide receivers. He’s also a starting wide receiver on a team with Aaron Rodgers under center. The rookie has played 102 of 106 snaps over the last two weeks.

Randall Cobb (hamstring) hasn’t played since Week 9. Even if he comes back, the slot wideout hasn’t cleared 40 yards since the opening week. While Jimmy Graham is trying to play through a broken thumb, he’d likely serve entirely as a blocker and/or decoy. The opportunities will eventually materialize for Valdes-Scantling, who has still averaged 61.5 yards over the last six games.

Overvalued: Devin Funchess (CAR vs. SEA) – ECR: WR32; My Rank: WR44
I typically avoid mentioning anyone entering the weekend with injury concerns. For better or worse, that news explains the discrepancy and will sort itself out by kickoff. Funchess is day-to-day with a back injury, which cost him a couple of spots in my receiver rankings. Yet he was going to reside comfortably below the ECR anyway.

The WR63 over the last four weeks, he has compiled a combined 12 catches on 21 targets for 142 yards and no touchdowns. Greg Olsen has scored three times on as many targets. Curtis Samuel has Funchess beat in touches (16), total yards (160), and touchdowns (three). D.J. Moore broke out for 157 yards in Week 11.

Funchess has now gone 16 games-including the playoffs-without reaching 80 yards. His value stems from reliable opportunities. Those are gone now. He’s no longer a WR3 as long as Carolina continues to expand the roles of its young playmaking wideouts.

Tight End

Undervalued: Vance McDonald (PIT at DEN) – ECR: TE12; My Rank: TE9
McDonald is 2018’s TE9 despite missing Week 1, so a top-10 distinction doesn’t feel like much of a stretch. Especially since three other top-10 options are either on a bye (Travis Kelce) or injured (O.J. Howard and Jimmy Graham). He was averaging more yards per game (46.3) than Trey Burton (42.0) and Austin Hooper (44.5) heading into their Thursday games. While far from a volume deity, catching at least three passes in five consecutive games is sadly notable from this position. He has also scored touchdowns in consecutive weeks and filed a season-high 80.0 snap percentage on Sunday, so the 28-year-old has comfortably displaced Jesse James as Pittsburgh’s top option by staying healthy.

The Broncos have ceded 64.0 yards per contest to tight ends this season, and the ghost of Antonio Gates became the third one to score against them in as many games. He doesn’t have much of a bar to clear after tame Thanksgiving showings from Burton (ECR TE10) and Hooper (ECR TE11).

Overvalued: Trey Burton, Jordan Reed, and Austin Hooper (all played on Thursday)
The only tight ends I ranked noticeably below the ECR already played on Thursday. Burton had posted 10 catches for 95 yards over the last four games, so I didn’t trust him to accomplish much with Chase Daniel under center. Despite receiving his most targets (seven) since Week 7, he finished with just 28 yards. It turns out my TE11 designation was still too generous, so I doubt he’ll make Week 13’s top 12 in a 16-game slate.

A quarterback change worked better for Reed, who registered six catches on a season-high 75 yards. He could meet or even slightly exceed my TE10 ranking even without a touchdown.

As for Hooper, I simply did not like the matchup. The Saints entered Thursday night permitting just 3.5 catches and 37.6 yards per game to opposing tight ends. Only one (Mark Andrews in Week 7) had located the end zone. That’s why I expected all the production to transfer to Atlanta’s wide receivers. Hooper indeed corraled all five targets for a mediocre 31 yards. Stay patient, as Atlanta closes the season against the two most beneficial opponents (Panthers and Buccaneers) for tight ends.

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Andrew Gould is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive and follow him @andrewgould4.

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