For those who read Week 8’s overvalued/undervalued, I’m going to need you to look directly into this light.

My undervalued quarterback (Drew Brees) endured his worst game of the season. My overvalued quarterback (Jared Goff) accumulated 295 yards and three touchdowns. After I made the case to drop Marvin Jones down the rankings, he responded by registering 117 yards and two touchdowns. (This was before the Lions traded Golden Tate.) Doug Baldwin, supposedly a wide receiver to conversely trust again, caught two of three targets for 26 yards.

Outside of my running backs — Tarik Cohen finished one spot above my optimistic RB13 ranking and Doug Martin hit my RB30 rating on the nose — I mistakenly deviated from the pack. Yet I can’t merely copy and paste the ECR, so let’s look into this week’s standard-scoring discrepancies. I’ll start by doubling down on last week’s biggest whiff.

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Quarterback

Undervalued: Drew Brees (NO vs. LAR) – ECR: QB7; My Rank: QB5
This did not end well last week. Brees spat on my confidence by posting 120 passing yards, the lowest mark in a full game since joining the Saints in 2006. He surrendered his first interception of the season, but he still maintains a record-shattering 77.4 completion percentage after converting 18 of his 23 throws. That lower volume, however, is a cause for concern. The quarterback had attempted 40.25 passes per game during Mark Ingram’s four-game suspension. Since the return, that rate has dwindled to 27.3. New Orleans’s offense suddenly looks like last year’s model, in which he threw his fewest passes (536) since 2009. These are legitimate long-term issues that question his legitimacy as a top-five fantasy quarterback going forward. Yet all these trends should reverse this week. The Saints have dictated the tempo during a six-game winning streak, but the undefeated Rams pose their biggest challenge to date. They have an implied total of 30.5 — Week 9’s highest clip — in an expected Superdome shootout against a defense relinquishing 7.6 yards per pass attempt. Brees, who boasts a 131.5 quarterback rating in three home contests, remains an elite option since the matchup requires a more aggressive aerial attack.

Overvalued: Alex Smith (WAS vs. ATL) – ECR: QB17; My Rank: QB19
As of Thursday, I had no quarterback ranked more than two spots above or below their ECR. Explaining why I’m ranking Russell Wilson ninth instead of eighth — he’s averaging 22.6 pass attempts per game since Week 2 — didn’t seem particularly helpful because it doesn’t change the math on starting him unless the decision is him or Matt Ryan. In a week with no standout streamers, someone needing to replace Carson Wentz or Andrew Luck may turn to Alex Smith. It’s certainly reasonable considering the Falcons have allowed 306.7 passing yards per game and a 70.5 completion percentage. I wanted to slot him higher because of the matchup, but how can anyone trust him in a one-quarterback league? During a season in which seven quarterbacks are averaging over 300 yards per game, Smith has skirted below 200 in three straight contests. Renown for his precision, the 34-year-old holsters an unseemly 59.9 completion percentage in Washington’s last five games. It’d be a different story if he had a healthy crew of skill-position players. Jamison Crowder (ankle), Chris Thompson (ribs), and Paul Richardson (knee/shoulder) are all banged up and uncertain for Sunday. Adrian Peterson is somehow thriving despite playing through a shoulder injury. Derek Carr already flopped as a replacement in this range, but Joe Flacco is a superior streamer who has attempted 10 more passes per game than Smith.

Running Back

Undervalued: Lamar Miller (HOU at DEN) – ECR: RB15; My Rank: RB11
Maybe this ranking is too aggressive for the season’s RB20. After going five underwhelming games without a rushing score, Lamar Miller ran across the pylons and hit 100 yards on the ground in consecutive games. Just like that, he’s averaging 17.7 touches and 72 yards per game while amassing 4.5 yards per carry. He should keep rolling against the Broncos, who have ceded 5.1 yards per rush and the sixth-most yards (135.8). There’s no longer any hint of backfield controversy in Houston, so Miller is a safe bet to get 15-20 touches against a weak opponent. Some of those looks will probably occur near the end zone. He has received at least one red-zone handoff in every game and has drawn 10 rushes inside the 10. Another 100 yards and a score is not out of the question, and the floor is higher than some initially perturbed investors may think.

Overvalued: Phillip Lindsay (DEN vs. HOU) – ECR: RB12; My Rank: RB17
On the other side of this matchup, the experts are justifiably jazzed about Phillip Lindsay after he registered 208 yards and two touchdowns in the last two games. The undrafted rookie is averaging 5.7 yards per carry, and his role could remain unchallenged in Week 9. Royce Freeman, whose Week 8 absence led to 21 touches for Lindsay, continues to miss practice due to an ankle injury. If he’s out, a steady role still solidifies Lindsay as a strong RB2. But let’s consider the matchups before propelling him into the top 12. His last two opponents (Cardinals and Chiefs) occupy the bottom two spots in terms of fantasy points allowed per game to running backs. He compiled his only triple-digit rushing outing against Oakland’s NFL-worst rushing defense. The Texans, meanwhile, have relinquished 3.6 yards per carry. I’m usually bullish on Lindsay, but there are other players in his range (Miller, Latavius Murray, Nick Chubb, Jordan Howard) with better matchups.

Wide Receiver

Undervalued: Amari Cooper (DAL vs. TEN) – ECR: WR44; My Rank: WR32
There’s a good deal of guessing involved with every player ranking. When it comes to Amari Cooper, we might as well all be playing darts drunk and blindfolded. You could have told me he’d draw a WR20 or WR50 ECR following his trade to Dallas, and neither would have seemed overly outlandish. Maybe he’s targeted once, matching his last two performances with the Raiders. It’s also possible the Cowboys force-feed the ball to someone who cost them a first-round pick to maximize their return. Because of this immense uncertainty, I don’t blame the handful of experts who placed the polarizing wideout outside or barely in their top 50. The risk may outweigh the rewards, but it was tough to keep moving him down once he was up against the likes of Mohamed Sanu, Jordy Nelson, and Taylor Gabriel. At that point, might as well swing for the fences and hope he’s immediately Dak Prescott’s top target who draws coverage against the struggling Malcolm Butler.

Overvalued: Green Bay Packers WRs Not Named Davante Adams (at NE)
The ECR doesn’t fully acknowledge how crowded Green Bay’s receiving corps has become. Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison both missed two games. In their absence, Marquez Valdes-Scantling feasted for 10 catches, 171 yards and a touchdown on 17 targets. When they both returned in Week 8, none of those three wideouts netted more than five targets or three-fifths of the offense’s snaps:

 
Recording over 130 yards in his third straight game, Davante Adams remains a WR1 superstar. Everyone else, however, is in danger of cannibalizing each other’s value. There’s little upside to playing Cobb, who has yet to exceed four catches or 40 yards since Week 1. Valdes-Scantling saved his Week 8 with a 40-yard touchdown, but he’ll need more explosive plays to salvage any value. Allison undeniably took the biggest hit last weekend. Yet it’s easy to see them taking turns breaking out each week, leaving the others in the cold. That equation also includes Jimmy Graham, who managed just one catch after drawing 19 targets without Cobb and Allison. The best bet in most leagues is to avoid all of Green Bay’s ancillary receivers — Graham will be tougher to bench given the lack of tight ends — beyond Adams until the situation settles.

Tight End

Undervalued: O.J. Howard (TB at CAR) – ECR: TE7; My Rank: TE4
First impressions are hard to overcome, so O.J. Howard is still fighting to erase his all-or-nothing label. Following an unsurprisingly uneven rookie campaign, he has collected over 50 yards in all six full games. (He left Week 4 early with an MCL sprain.) The 23-year-old has posted between 60-70 yards in all three contests since beating his timetable by missing just one game. Showing a strong rapport with both Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick, he has earned recognition as a TE1 with big-play upside. He’s an especially strong play in a rough week for the position — Zach Ertz, Evan Engram, Eric Ebron, and Jack Doyle are all off — against a Panthers defense last in receptions (6.9) and fantasy points (12.4) allowed per game to tight ends. As a vital part of the NFL’s premier passing offense, Howard deserves everyone’s trust in a favorable matchup.

Overvalued: David Njoku (CLE vs. KC) – ECR: TE5; My Rank: TE7
I’m not abandoning David Njoku after one lousy day. He had garnered 36 targets in four games before getting zero in Week 8’s vanishing act. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have ceded 74.5 yards per bout to opposing tight ends. Since the position remains a wasteland, he’s still a starting option. And yet there needs to be some penalty for going an entire game without a single target. After establishing the lowest of floors, he has now finished three of eight games with 20 or fewer yards. Although far from a dependable stud, Greg Olsen also gets a tremendous matchup on the heels of finding pay dirt in consecutive games. Njoku was a limited practice participant due to a knee injury, so there’s enough risk to drop a couple of spots below the ECR. Then again, I slotted him a spot below Jared Cook, who finished with only 20 yards on Thursday night.