With the exception of the tight end featured below, the following underrated players are being drafted outside the top 15 at their respective positions. In other words, regardless of your draft position in DRAFT best ball leagues, you’ll have a crack at all of the highlighted players. Youth is a theme that ties the entire group of players together with only one player in the group having played more than two seasons in the NFL, and he’s only played three seasons of pro ball.
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Quarterback
Josh Allen (BUF) – 112.3, QB16
The Bills traded up in last year’s NFL Draft to grab the guy they hoped would be their franchise signal caller. Allen’s arm strength was rightfully gushed about, but he carried questions about his accuracy. He completed just 52.8% of his passes as a rookie, so his accuracy leaves a lot to be desired, but he flashed his fantasy upside despite a lackluster — putting it mildly — supporting cast. Football Outsiders (FO) ranked the Bills 23rd in pass protection and 30th in adjusted line yards. It was both a terrible run blocking unit and a below-average pass blocking group.
Allen didn’t have many weapons at his disposal, either. Kelvin Benjamin opened the year as his No. 1 receiver and was cut during the year. The rookie quarterback struggled mightily after Nathan Peterman’s continued ineptitude forced the Bills to insert Allen during the season’s opener and allow him to take his lumps. Allen took some literal lumps, and he injured his throwing elbow in Week 6 in Houston. He sat out Buffalo’s next four games before returning in Week 12 following their Week 11 bye. Allen started the final six games of the season, and he made major strides after his absence due to injury.
He threw two touchdowns and five interceptions before the injury, but he tossed eight touchdowns and seven interceptions in his final six games. He closed the year with five straight games besting 200 passing yards — admittedly a low bar to clear in today’s pass-happy NFL — while bolstering his overall fantasy value with incredible rushing numbers. Allen rushed for 99 yards and a touchdown in his first game back versus the Jaguars, bested 100 rushing yards in the following two weeks, and closed the year with a 95-yard effort.
In all, he rushed for 476 yards and five touchdowns in the final six games of the year. That breaks down to 79.33 rushing yards per game, and it more than picked up the slack for his underwhelming 207 passing yards per game during that stretch. His rushing pace is unsustainable, but he’s clearly fleet of foot and built to be a Cam Newton-like headache in the red zone.
Buffalo’s defense is excellent, so much of their offseason focus is likely going to be on adding weapons for their young quarterback to throw to and linemen to protect their franchise quarterback. Allen’s still rough around the edges, but his rushing ability and big arm create a high weekly ceiling that plays perfectly in best ball leagues. At this point in the offseason, my preferred draft strategy at quarterback is to sit out the top four options (Patrick Mahomes, Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, and Deshaun Watson) who are all going inside the top-65 picks in ADP and either draft Baker Mayfield (QB5, 74.6 ADP), Drew Brees (QB6, 77.4), Matt Ryan (QB7, 86.2), or Russell Wilson (QB8, 87.2) as my QB1 while selecting Allen as my QB2, or double dip from the middle tier with Allen as my QB1A. This strategy will help make up for the low-floor weeks that accompany a raw, inaccurate passer like Allen while enjoying the fruits of his sky-high ceiling weeks.
Running Back
Kerryon Johnson (DET) – 32.3, RB16
Johnson’s rank at running back isn’t egregious, but it’s a pinch low. Additionally, being selected outside the top 30 in ADP is a little low, too. The second-year back has true league-winner upside with his workhorse potential and home-run ability. Johnson’s average of 5.4 yards per carry was tied for the second highest among qualified backs, according to Pro-Football-Reference.
The advanced metrics are tantalizing, too. FO ranked Johnson 14th out of 47 backs who carried the ball a minimum of 100 times in DYAR, but, more impressively, he ranked fifth in DVOA. Johnson also flashed his receiving chops by averaging 3.2 receptions per game on an outstanding 82.1% catch percentage. He missed Detroit’s final six games with a knee sprain, but the injury didn’t require surgery. He’s poised to build on his impressive rookie season and is a great RB2 target with RB1 upside.
Tarik Cohen (CHI) – 46.9, RB23
Cohen doesn’t fit the profile of a workhorse back, but he’s a big play waiting to happen whose receiving prowess is his calling card. Cohen’s 444 rushing yards last year weren’t a jaw-dropping total, but his work as a receiver (725 receiving yards) helped carry him to the 15th highest yards from scrimmage total (1,169) among backs last year. As an added bonus, because he was doing the bulk of his damage through the air, he was picking up points at a half-point per reception (DRAFT’s scoring format) clip on his 4.4 receptions per game. Cohen even splashed pay dirt eight times with three rushing scores and five more through the air while adding a cherry on top with a touchdown pass. I’d outright rather have Cohen than Derrius Guice (RB22, 41.3) and Leonard Fournette (RB19, 35.7). Also, I’d rather have Chicago’s Swiss Army knife back at his cost than paying the ADP required to pop Sony Michel (RB13, 23.4) and Devonta Freeman (RB20, 37.4).
Wide Receiver
Robby Anderson (NYJ) – 78.8, WR32
Anderson is one of two receivers who stood out as steals. I was down on Anderson entering last season due to the Jets bringing in a rookie quarterback and the potential for a suspension for off-field behavior. I couldn’t be higher on him this year, and I’m a firm believer he’s a top-25 wideout after clicking with a blossoming Sam Darnold down the stretch. Darnold played in the first nine games of the year for the Jets before missing three games from Week 10 through Week 13 with an injury.
As was the case for the aforementioned rookie quarterback Josh Allen, Darnold seemed to benefit from the time on the sideline due to injury. He closed the season on a high note, and Anderson played at a high level as his unquestioned No. 1 option. Anderson bested 75 receiving yards with a touchdown in three of the final four games, and he had per-game averages of 9.75 targets, 5.75 receptions, and 84 receiving yards, according to RotoViz’s Game Splits App. Again, he’s a steal.
Robert Foster (BUF) – 132.7, WR50
Speaking of AFC East No. 1 receivers who are steals and finished the season on a high note, Foster, too, thrived down the stretch. Foster’s first breakout game actually came in Week 10 with Matt Barkley playing quarterback. He corralled three of four targets for 105 yards. That was just the beginning of a flurry to close out 2018, though.
With Allen back in Week 11, he posted a 2-94-1 line on three targets against the Jaguars, and he bested 100 yards two more times with a 7-104-0 line in Week 14 and a 4-108-1 line in Week 15. He made up for a lackluster 21 receiving yards on four catches in the season finale by reaching the end zone. In the final six games of the season playing with Allen, he had per-game averages of 5.33 targets, 3.67 receptions, and 67.67 receiving yards. His field-stretching ability pairs perfectly with Allen’s big arm, and he doesn’t need a great deal of volume to deliver a helpful fantasy line, so the likely addition (or additions) of help in the passing attack shouldn’t damage his value. I believe he’ll finish closer to 25th at receiver this year than 50th, where his ADP places him among wideouts.
Tight End
David Njoku (CLE) – 67.2, TE7
Njoku made major strides in his sophomore campaign, and the arrow is pointed upward for Cleveland’s offense with Freddie Kitchens as their head coach, former Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Todd Monken serving as the Browns’ OC and playcaller, and Baker Mayfield entering his second year as the team’s burgeoning stud signal caller. As much as I love Mayfield this year, Njoku is my favorite piece of Cleveland’s high-upside offense.
He kicked his play up a notch with Mayfield replacing the rag-tag collection of signal callers playing quarterback for the Browns before him. In 18 games without Mayfield, Njoku had per-game averages of 4.11 targets, 2.17 receptions, 0.22 touchdowns, and 23.28 receiving yards. In 13 games with Mayfield, he had per-game averages of 5.77 targets, 3.77 receptions, 0.31 touchdowns, and 46.62 receiving yards.
Part of Njoku’s jump in production also was the result of getting further acclimated to the speed of the NFL. Njoku was one of the youngest draft prospects in the 2017 NFL Draft at 20 years old. His measurables at the NFL Draft Combine were jaw-dropping and earned a “best comparable” of Travis Kelce from PlayerProfiler, but making the transition to the NFL is a tall order for a young man making his NFL debut at just 21 years old (Njoku’s birth date is July 10, 1996).
How did Njoku stack up to other tight ends through their age-22 season? Njoku’s 1,025 yards were the sixth highest for a tight end through their age-22 season, his 88 receptions were the fifth-highest total, and his eight touchdowns were tied for the fourth most, per Pro-Football-Reference’s play index tool. The group that ranked ahead of him in those categories was a star-studded collection that includes Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez, Jason Witten, Mike Ditka, Todd Heap, and Tony Gonzalez. To fully put Njoku’s numbers in perspective, both he and Gonzalez played 32 games before their age-23 seasons, and Gonzalez posted a line of 92-989-4 on 156 targets while Njoku sported a line of 88-1,025-8 on 148 targets. Obviously the game has shifted to a more pass-happy nature since Gonzalez debuted in 1997, but for Cleveland’s young tight end’s numbers through his age-22 season to stack up with Gonzalez and the other studs previously mentioned is quite promising and bodes well for his future outlook.
Overvalued Players in DRAFT Best Ball Leagues
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
